Comments on: The Lessons of the Astros’ 2016 Backslide http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/05/09/the-lessons-of-the-astros-2016-backslide/ Just another Baseball Prospectus Local Sites site Tue, 13 Nov 2018 16:53:42 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=4.1.1 By: Pat Folz http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/05/09/the-lessons-of-the-astros-2016-backslide/#comment-7016 Mon, 09 May 2016 22:59:51 +0000 http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=4414#comment-7016 Which is to say, basically, I agree :) Stearns had better be watching closely, both in terms of how to approach talent acquisition during the “suck” part of the rebuilding phase, and in not drinking their own Kool-Aid when the “not-suck” part kicks in.

]]> By: Milwaukee - Baseball Prospectus http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/05/09/the-lessons-of-the-astros-2016-backslide/#comment-7014 Mon, 09 May 2016 22:52:18 +0000 http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=4414#comment-7014 […] done it alone. Chris Carter has continued to spit in the face of the Astros (as an aside: lol Astros), hitting .333/.353/.818 in May. Braun’s .452/.485/.710 line in the month illustrates his […]

]]> By: Pat Folz http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/05/09/the-lessons-of-the-astros-2016-backslide/#comment-7013 Mon, 09 May 2016 22:51:18 +0000 http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=4414#comment-7013 It seems like they decided to rest on their laurels without actually finishing their rebuild. They had a lineup of Correa, Altuve, and a bunch of high-power/high-K guys, and a rotation with an ace, some promising young talent (McCullers, Velazquez, McHugh), and filler (Fiers, Feldman) – cost-effective to be sure, but that’s a different thing than good. The lineup had (has) some glaring vulnerabilities – which they saw get exploited in the playoffs – and a rotation counting on youth and flaky track records is always vulnerable. They had (have) a solid foundation, but still needed (need) some work to become a real top contender.

And yet, they seemed to consciously not even attempt to address any of this. Valbuena and Gattis and Feldman and Fiers are fine (not to mention Tyler White), but do you really look at a lineup and rotation that’s counting on them and say, “good enough”? They could have been signing talent (especially premium-position talent) all along as you note, but having failed to do so, they could have pursued trades – Velazquez and Appel almost certainly would have gotten Lucroy, for one, but also people like Frazier, Walker (to move to third or first), Wade Miley all got moved in deals within the Astros’ price range, and any of them would have made the team stronger and more robust.

Instead, in their one significant transaction they blew a whole bunch of young talent to get a nothing-special closer with a 1.5 year track record, who rather unsurprisingly has turned into a crappy middle reliever. Don’t Blow Resources On Relief Pitching is like lesson #1 of the modern era, and yet… It’s the kind of move you only make if you think you’re set otherwise, which they clearly weren’t. They didn’t even win the division last year.

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