Comments on: Assessing Roster Moves III: Ideal 40-Man

By: Milwaukee - Baseball Prospectus

Milwaukee - Baseball Prospectus — Tue, 24 Jan 2017 15:32:20 +0000

[…] Related Reading: Historical Transactional Value for OFP 40-Man Roster Surplus Values […]

By: Robin's Home Town

Robin's Home Town — Tue, 27 Dec 2016 21:08:50 +0000

Thanks, Nick. I think the Carter decision was based on the Walker signing/Thames negotiations.

Torres could be cut if they get further in negotiations with free agent relievers with more upside. In my opinion, Stearns is using his 40 man roster very wisely.

I would have liked to see Parker for a year but we can’t hoard everyone. Scahill is the one that surprises me has lasted this long. I think he has decent stuff, but Counsell didn’t use him much.

By: Nicholas Zettel

Nicholas Zettel — Tue, 27 Dec 2016 19:25:22 +0000

Good question on prospects. I think they will always appear to be overrated because you’re projecting tools and traits, rather than stats. My model inflated prospects by assuming full reserve control and ceiling (so, Lewis Brinson reaching his ceiling and reserved for six years would be worth at least 9.0 WARP). Also, remember it costs nothing to cut prospects, which raises their value.

As for Torres / Carter, my basic point is that if you can cut Carter, you can cut Torres, too.i.e, overall value clearly did not impact that move.

By: Robin's Home Town

Robin's Home Town — Tue, 27 Dec 2016 17:56:59 +0000

Interesting article and evaluation tool. It just feels like prospect is inflated. For instance, what was Arcia’s surplus value last year before he was called up? Brett Phillips has a $50 mil surplus over him?

Also, I don’t understand your comment about Chris Carter and Carlos Torres. I would assume that playing time has an element in the surplus value. Therefore, if Thames has more surplus value, he would play 1B and reduce the value that Carter brings.

Based on that, Torres vs Carter would not make sense for a roster spot decision.