Khris Davis does three things poorly for which some fans cannot seem to forgive him. He strikes out more than the league-average player, has a low batting average, and has a poor arm. These are hindrances that Gerardo Parra does not share. That’s all the fans in question need to know in order to pass judgement and pick a favorite. But, of course, there is more to being a good baseball player. There are also ways of making up for deficiencies.

Khris Davis has two distinct advantages over Gerardo Parra — he hits for power and draws walks at an above-average rate. Take a look at their season stats side by side:

As you can see, Parra has a clear advantage in batting average. He beats Davis by a whopping forty-one points. But that’s the only area where Parra has a distinct advantage. He only bests Davis by two points in on-base percentage while Davis has a fifty-five point lead in slugging. In both advanced metrics — weighted runs created plus and true average — Davis comes out well ahead.

Obviously, Davis’ huge power advantage plays a large part in giving him the offensive advantage. But his greater ability to draw walks should not be ignored. He has a 10.1 percent walk rate versus Parra’s paltry 4.8 percent. Parra gets more base hits, but because of the disparity on walk rates, the two actually get on base at nearly the same rate. In other words, even though Davis doesn’t get as many base hits, he’s not making more outs than Parra.

It’s still true that Parra holds a sizable advantage defensively. But Davis’ offense comes very close to making up for his poor defense and depending on the metric allows him to surpass Parra in total value.

FanGraphs’ WAR metric is the only one that prefers Khris Davis to Gerardo Parra. But both Baseball Reference and Baseball Prospectus have the two within 0.2 points. That’s no functional difference. It’s also important to note the disparity in playing time. Parra has 143 more plate appearances, in part because Khris Davis needed mid-season knee surgery. WAR is accumulative, meaning it can go up or down with more playing time. It’s possible with equal playing time Davis could surpass Parra in wins above replacement. Of course, the reverse is also true.

It seems many prefer Gerardo Parra because he excels in the more traditional areas — batting average, strikeout rate, and defense. Khris Davis is perceived to be a worse player than he is because many people are still biased against players with poor batting averages and high strikeout numbers. But when you use better descriptive and more encompassing statistics — OBP, wRC+, TAv, WAR — it becomes clear that the two are at the very least on equal footing with respect to overall value or wins above replacement. And Davis is objectively the superior offensive player.

Adam Lind is having a really great season. He’s proven that he can play an adequate first base, as evidenced by his +4 DRS. He’s showing he can hit in a full time role, shown by his .304 TAv. And he’s exhibited an ability to manage his back issues, which is seen by his 141 games and 542 plate appearances. He also only making $8 million next year, which isn’t expensive anymore. My point is that there should be no question that he will have strong trade value. However, as the Brewers are rebuilding, they have no real use for a first baseman on a one-year deal.

It’s true the Brewers don’t have a strong first base prospect at any level in the minors. After Adam Lind, they don’t have a strong candidate to play the position at the major-league level unless you count Jason Rogers — which I do. So even if they want to keep Adam Lind around — which would be a decision of questionable logic — they still don’t have a player to take over except for Rogers. My point — probably pretty clearly — is that it’s time to see what Jason Rogers can do in the majors.

Rogers has limited time at the major-league level, but he’s crushed it at the plate every year in the minors. He first reached Double-A in 2013 and hit .270/.346/.468. The following season he split between Double-A and Triple-A, hitting .296/.365/.489. Then this year, at the lofty and offense-inflating Colorado Springs, he hit .344/.449/.607. Even taking those numbers with a grain of salt, we see that he can mash when he’s facing an appropriate level of competition. But crushing minor-league pitching is a very different task than crushing major-league pitching.

Last year he only got ten plate appearances, but this year he’s accumulated 160. It’s still a small sample size but he’s hit .294/.369/427. That’s pretty decent and above the league’s average of .285 TAv. It’s actually more impressive that his plate appearances have been sporadic and 54 of those plate appearances have come as a pinch hitter. That’s not an easy task for any hitter, especially one who is inexperienced in the big leagues. What exactly that tells us, I’m not sure, but it shows patience and in point of fact he has a 16.3 percent walk rate as a pinch hitter.

One of the problems we have when trying to figure out how Rogers’ minor-league numbers will translate to the majors is sample size. He just doesn’t have enough plate appearances to give us a reliable idea of what he’s capable of doing. However, that walk rate and strikeout rate are two things that stabilize quickly — 120 PA and 60 PA, respectively. Both are better than league average rates — 7.6 percent for walk rates and 20.3 percent for strikeout rates. That’s a pretty good foundation and reflective of his minor-league career.

The Brewers don’t need Adam Lind next year; however, they do need a long-term solution at first base. There’s no telling if that’s Jason Rogers, but there is only one way to find out. And what little information we do have at the major-league level is encouraging. It also would be nice to net some more prospects in a deal for Adam Lind. Since there really isn’t anyone else for the first base job, I can’t think of single reason not to go this route. We’ll just have to wait and see if the Brewers new general manager feels the same way.

One prospect that seemingly slides under the radar is Michael Reed. That is a shame, too, because he has raised his stock as much as anyone in the system, relatively speaking. I think the reason Reed gets overlooked is his profile doesn’t fit the prototypical corner outfielder, which combines a special bat with big power. Reed’s hit tool is around average but his home-run power is definitely below average. He tied a career high in home runs this year with five. But Reed brings other advantages.

His combined slash line at Double-A and Triple-A is .269/.371/.410. He also stole 26 bases while getting caught just seven times. He had a 14.1 percent walk rate at Double-A Biloxi and 13.5 percent walk rate in Triple-A Colorado Springs. That level of patience isn’t a fluke either. He’s had well above 10 percent walk rates at every level, save his draft year. So while he may never reach double-digit home run numbers, he does bring a dangerous combination of high on-base skills with potential for 20-30 stolen bases.

In a lot of ways, his profile is reminiscent of former Brewers outfielder Nori Aoki. He’s an above-average defender at the corner, gets on base at a high rate, and supplements his gap power with speed. They can both play center field in a pinch, as well. Michael Reed actually played a lot of center earlier in his minor-league career but has played less the higher he has progressed in the Brewers’ farm system. It’s unclear whether that’s because he is better suited to the corners or if he was supplanted by better defensive teammates like Tyrone Taylor and Kyle Wren.

To me, Michael Reed’s potential ability to play center field is especially interesting. The Brewers don’t have a true center fielder right now. They’ve given the majority of post-Gomez playing time to Domingo Santana, but he’s a corner outfielder all the way. If Reed is a better defender, he immediately becomes a realistic option as a stop-gap until Brett Phillips and/or Tyrone Taylor are ready. If he can play center field even at an average level, he becomes a legitimate regular as the low-power/high-OBP profile plays better there.

Earlier this month the Brewers announced they would be sending Michael Reed to the Arizona Fall League. The Brewers have not traditionally taken the AFL lightly, and his inclusion should be viewed as a vote of confidence in him. Furthermore, news broke late on Monday evening that the Brewers would be calling up Reed and five other players from Double-A Biloxi. Viewed in tandem, I have to wonder if they’ll be giving serious thought to his inclusion on next year’s Opening Day roster.

He has never been a highly-ranked prospect. That’s a mistake by those making the lists (in fairness Keith Law did have him in his top 10 prior to the trade deadline). I don’t think it’s a mistake the Brewers are making. They’ve shown in the past they’ll give these types of unheralded prospects a chance. They did so with Mike Fiers, Khris Davis, and Scooter Gennett. If my hopes are realized, we’ll be adding Michael Reed to that list before next season is finished.

In context of other pitchers, Jungmann has been an offensive juggernaut in his 18 starts this season. The right-hander has just 39 plate appearances, but among those with at least 40 PA, he ranks second in baseball after Madison Bumgarner, who is hitting .243/.264/.486 with a 108 wRC+. It’s been fun to watch because pitchers are almost always universally horrible at the plate.

This got me thinking about the best hitting pitchers in Brewers history. I decided to sort the Brewers pitchers by wRC+ and only those that have accumulated a minimum of 100 plate appearances. The Brewers have technically been a team since 1969, but they only came to the National League in 1998. As such, the list is only 26 players long. Here is the top-ten list:

By wRC+, which attempts to normalize for many contextual factors, Brooks Kieshnick is leagues ahead of the rest. He also has the unique distinction as being the only dual-threat player on this list. He donned a Brewers uniform in 2003 and 2004. While he was solely a pitcher for them in his second season with the team, in 2003 he played 26 innings in the outfield and 56 innings as a pitcher.

I think Yovani Gallardo has a strong argument as the truly best hitting pitcher. He has the second-most plate appearances among Brewers after Ben Sheets (496 PA). Only one other pitcher comes within 200 plate appearances — Dave Bush with 299 PA. Gallardo is also far and away the leader in home runs by a pitcher. His 12 home runs are 10 more than any other pure pitcher. In fact, his 12 home runs are more than every other pure pitcher combined. Brooks Kieshnick did have 8 home runs, but he was also a part time position player.

While Taylor Jungmann only has 39 plate appearances thus far in his young career breaking into this top ten list is not a difficult task. We don’t even get out of the top ten before we see a negative contributor — Marco Estrada’s -5 wRC+. However with just those 39 plate appearances under his belt, we have no real idea what to expect from him going forward. Next season will be Jungmann’s first full season in the majors. Even though it’s not important, I’m going to enjoy tracking his offense to determine where he ends up on this list once he surpasses 100 plate appearances.

Primarily, I’m talking about Matt Clark and Juan Centeno. Each player was active on the Triple-A Colorado Springs roster. That team has finished it’s season. There is no longer any obligation keeping those players from receiving a call-up. The Double-A Biloxi roster, for example, is heading to the Southern League playoffs. The Brewers won’t call any of them up until after their run is finished, if at all. No such reasoning applies to Clark and Centeno.

Adam Lind could be traded in the offseason and Martin Maldonado’s strangle hold on the back-up catcher position is not as strong as it once was. You’d think the Brewers would want to get a look at any alternatives provided they exist. The fact that Clark and Centeno haven’t been called up yet cannot be good news for those two. It might suggest the Brewers don’t view them as realistic options.

Sometime before the winter meetings start in December, the Brewers are going to have to put a load of new players on the 40-man roster to protect them from the Rule 5 draft. There are currently three open spots and one more opening up once Kyle Lohse officially becomes a free agent. Four spots will not be enough and more room will need to be made.

That means some players will need to be removed from the 40-man roster, either through trades or by designating players for assignment. By not promoting Matt Clark or Juan Centeno — something which could still happen — the Brewers could be foreshadowing their removal from the 40-man roster.

This seems to go double for Centeno since the Brewers chose to instead add minor-league-veteran catcher Nevin Ashley. Ashley was having a nice offensive season with Colorado Springs Sky Sox but at 31 years old with eight minor-league seasons under his belt, he doesn’t seem to have much upside. In fact, he’s probably a strong candidate to be DFA’d after the season ends much like Matt Pagnozzi last year.

One other player on the 40 man roster that has not received a call-up (yet) is Johnny Hellweg. He was part of the trade that send Zack Greinke to the Angels. He’s had a rough go of things. Last year, he under went Tommy John surgery. He returned mid-way through this season and has struggled, though that’s not altogether unexpected.

The Brevard County Manatees have finished their season. So like Clark and Centeno there is not obligation holding Hellweg back. Unlike Centeno and Clark, Johnny Hellweg no longer has any minor-league options remaining. That means if he’s still on the 40-man roster next year, he has to be put on the major league team or DFA’d. Given his struggles in the minors this year and the need to protect others from the Rule 5 draft, it seems unlikely the Brewers would forgo a call-up now only to keep him on the 40-man roster though spring training and hope he can make the Opening Day roster.

It will be interesting to see what happens once the Biloxi Shuckers are finished with (hopefully winning) the Southern League playoffs. A number of players from that team will need to be protected from the Rule 5 draft and as such could receive call-ups. But these call-ups would be more of the token variety for a job well done. In other words, it won’t mean anything if they don’t receive a call-up.

For players like Matt Clark, Juan Centeno and Johnny Hellweg, no September call-up could mean their time with the Brewers is nearing an end. Though it is always possible a player passes through waivers and accepts assignment which would keep him in the organization. It would still mean expectations for them have diminished.

Taylor Jungmann has been a revelation with the Brewers this year. All through the minors, despite some encouraging results, he has struggled with his command — forcing scouts and talent evaluators limit their projections for him. However, through 16 starts before tonight in 96.2 innings, Jungmann tallied a 13.2 K%-BB%, the second best mark of his professional career. He walked 8.2 percent of batters faced which is slightly above league-average (7.5 percent) but also his second-best mark. This seemingly new-found command has allowed him to accrue a 2.42 ERA, 3.04 FIP, and 2.94 DRA.

Unfortunately, Jungmann’s command issues reemerged for this start. In the first inning he fell behind in many counts even walking a batter and allowing a couple of hits to surrender the first run of the game. He seemed to overcompensate a bit in the second inning with too many pitches finding too much of the plate. The result was a solo home run off the bat of J.T. Realmuto. Realmuto would later hit an inside the park home run making this the first multi-home run game of Jungmann’s career.

He would exit after only 3.2 innings, having allowed five runs to that point. He was responsible for one more base runner that did eventually cross home plate, bringing the total runs allowed to six. He threw a total of 80 pitches. Fifty were strikes and thirty were balls which is a rather poor ratio.

The important thing at this point in Taylor Jungmann’s career isn’t avoiding bad starts altogether, it’s learning from them when they happen. Prior to this start he’s had maybe two or three poor outings and each time he’s rebounded nicely. It’s never a failure if you learn something from it, and so far it appears that’s what Jungmann is doing.

This was a weird game for the Brewers offense. They were able to muster four runs but nothing more. They had their fair share of base runners, though. Domingo Santana hit a two-run home run. Both Ryan Braun and Jean Segura had three-hit nights. Jason Rogers had a pair of hits. In addition to the four that crossed home plate, the Brewers were able to put 14 other men on base. They just couldn’t seem to manage more than just the one hit with runners in scoring position.

Some people put a lot of stock in the “Left On Base” (LOB) statistic, but they really shouldn’t. It’s really just an unfortunate happenstance. The Brewers batters were still able to reach base 17 times including 13 hits. More often than not that’s going to result in more runs.

KEY MOMENT

In the fifth inning the Brewers worked the bases loaded with just one out. Adam Lind popped up and Elian Herrera grounded out to strand those runners. Two innings later, Herrera would step to the plate with a chance for redemption. The Brewers trailed by three runs at this point and there were already two outs. Jason Rogers had driven in a run that inning and was standing at second base after Luis Sardinas drew a walk in a pinch hit opportunity.

Herrera was able to work a favorable 2-0 count before falling back to an even count. The next pitch was a mistake heater down the heart of the strike zone. Herrera didn’t miss it and ripped a line drive up the middle to bring in a run.

Now, down by two with runners at the corners, Martin Maldonado stood in for the pitcher. It had originally been Scooter Gennett, but the Marlins made a pitching change forcing the Brewers to pull him back. Maldonado was able to work the count full making for an exciting and tense moment in this game. Unfortunately, the inning would end with Maldonado watching a called strike. This would be the best and last chance the Brewers had to tie the game or go ahead.

TWO THINGS TO WATCH

After hitting one in yesterday’s game recent Brewers acquisition Domingo Santana hit another opposite-field home run today. That’s not small feat to achieve in the pitching-friendly confines of Marlins Park. He also drew two walks and singled in this game. He’s been getting the majority of his playing time in center field but is more suited to the corners. However, today on Twitter, Brewers beat reporters Tom Haudricourt and Adam McCalvy reported that Assistant General Manager Gord Ash is at least considering the possibility of keeping Santana at the position to start next season:

“It has to be in the back of your mind,” Ash said. “You’re not going to go out and get a CF just to get one.” https://t.co/c0N0iTvsU6

— Adam McCalvy (@AdamMcCalvy) September 8, 2015

I still think it’s a long shot the Brewers do this. It’s more likely Khris Davis is traded in the offseason, making room at one of the corners. If that doesn’t happen, Santana has been decent enough in the field that it wouldn’t be shocking if indeed that’s where he plays in the very short term. It’s something a rebuilding team can afford to do and the offensive potential that outfield offers is intriguing. And as long as Domingo Santana keeps hitting, the Brewers are going to do whatever they need to get him more playing time.

Domingo Santana isn’t the only player the Brewers will be taking a good long look at this September. They called up Zach Davies previously and today activated catcher Nevin Ashley and shortstop Luis Sardinas. Ashley reminds me a lot of Matt Pagnozzi last year. He was just called up to provide insurance in case Ron Roenicke need to use one of his other catchers as a pinch hitter. He was then let go after the season ended.

Luis Sardinas has a chance to play a larger role with the team. Jean Segura’s name was all over mid-season trade rumors and will likely surface again in the offseason. With that in mind, it’s possible the Brewers want to give more playing time to Sardinas to further assess his abilities.

It remains to be seen if any other minor league players will join the Brewers this month. I wouldn’t be surprised to see one or two Biloxi Shuckers eventually join the big-league club once their playoff run is finished (September 21 at the lastest). The Brewers will have to place a number of them on the 40-man roster to protect them from the Rule 5 draft and giving them a week of major-league service time won’t meaningfully affect the way they need to be handled next year.

Two players come foremost to my mind: Ty Wagner and Jorge Lopez. Wagner is already on the 40-man roster and even has a major-league start under his belt. He also won the Southern League ERA title this year with a 2.25 ERA which is quite impressive. Equally impressive is the fact that his teammate Jorge Lopez finished with an ERA just 0.01 points higher.

I wouldn’t expect either to be able to win a rotation spot going into next season. But they’re firmly on the radar for perhaps a mid-season promotion or injury replacement. And the Brewers have said in the past they like to reward players with September call-ups to show them what they’ve been fighting for.

Teams will send prospects to the AFL for various reasons. Sometimes a player is being considered for the major-league team in the following season. Playing in the AFL allows the team an opportunity to evaluate that player in a higher level of competition. Sometimes a team will place a prospect in the AFL to allow more scouts to take notice of that player in hopes of working a trade at a later date. Sometimes a team simply wants to give a guy more playing time.

This year the Brewers are sending four pitchers and three position players. The pitchers are LHP Josh Hader, RHP Adrian Houser, RHP Jacob Barnes, and RHP Damien Magnifico. The position players are OF Brett Phillips, OF Michael Reed, and SS Yadiel Rivera.

I thought it would be interesting to look at recent Brewers-affiliated AFL teams to see if the team shows any tendencies when choosing which players go. If so, it could gives an idea of what to expect from this year’s crew.

2011 – Peoria Javelinas

2B Scooter Gennett, 3B Zelous Wheeler, OF Kentrail Davis, OF Logan Schafer, RHP Tyler Thornburg, RHP Brandon Kintzler, RHP Cody Scarpetta, RHP Casey Medlen, LHP Jed Bradley, LHP Dan Meadows, RHP Santo Manzanillo

2012 – Phoenix Desert Dogs

UTIL Josh Prince, OF Brock Kjeldgaard, 1B Hunter Morris, OF Khris Davis, RHP Johnny Hellweg, RHP Jimmy Nelson, RHP Santo Manzanillo, RHP Nick Bucci, RHP Kyle Heckathorn

2013 – Surprise Saguaros

1B Jason Rogers, OF Mitch Haniger, C Adam Weisenburger, RHP Tyler Cravy, RHP David Goforth, RHP Taylor Jungmann, RHP Kevin Shackelford

2014 – Phoenix Desert Dogs

C Shawn Zarraga, OF Tyrone Taylor, 2B Hector Gomez, 1B Nick Ramirez, OF Clint Coulter, LHP Mike Strong, LHP Wei-Chung Wang, RHP Brooks Hall, RHP Ty Wagner

The players in bold have spent some amount of time at the major-league level. As you can see, close to half the players the Brewers have sent to the AFL have played in the majors. Some of those that haven’t may yet in the future. So it seems highly probable that the Brewers feel each or most players they send to the AFL has a chance to contribute to a major-league team in some capacity.

Scooter Gennett, Khris Davis, Jimmy Nelson, and Taylor Jungmann have all won starting jobs with the Brewers. So there’s a good chance that this year’s crop also contains one or two future Brewers regulars. Center fielder Brett Phillips seems the most likely. But Michael Reed is interesting too. Neither Scooter Gennett nor Khris Davis were on a clear path to a starting role when the Brewers put them in the AFL. Each was able to outperform projections and a solid performance in the AFL was just one stop on that track.

The Brewers also seem to be somewhat active in trading away and trading for players that have appeared in the AFL. From the teams listed the Brewers have traded Shawn Zarraga, Mitch Haniger, and Kevin Shackelford. With the exception of Shackelford, each was traded either the offseason after their AFL appearance or during the following season.

It’s also interesting to note the Brewers traded for Zach Davies who was a participant on the 2014 Desert Dogs. During the 2014-2015 offseason the Brewers traded for Braves minor-league outfielder Kyle Wren. He played with the 2014 Peoria Javelinas. Another acquisition that offseason was Jarret Marin who played for the 2013 Desert Dogs.

It’s hard to say with what intention the Brewers are sending individual prospects. But on a macro level, we can see that the AFL has been an important place for prospects to play. There’s a very good chance that one or more of these players make it to the majors. There’s also the potential that one or more gets traded at some point, but that’s far less of a certainty. Regardless of what the future holds for these players, the AFL makes for a very interesting and unique opportunity for these players, which makes it all the more enjoyable to follow as a fan.

The thing about Davis is that he’s not a great player. He might not even be noticeably above average. That’s not to suggest that he lacks real value. Very much the opposite. His offense is above average, and as a total package I think he’s at least average.

It’s about understanding how best to utilize that value. Khris Davis is a nice complementary player, but not one a team should build around. Now that the Brewers are undergoing a transition period, they need core players. Complementary players, unless young and without identifiable replacements within the system, are expendable. In this way, Davis’ best value to the Brewers is now in a trade.

BP Milwaukee’s J.P. Breen broached the topic of trading the left fielder on Monday. He identified the two main reasons why a trade makes sense. First, Davis has solid trade value due to the in-game power that he exhibits. Second, the Brewers have a reasonable replacement ready in Domingo Santana — among others, I would add — and he appears to have a similar profile to Davis with perhaps more upside. That helps make a move easier to stomach for the front office.

Naturally, this leads me to wonder what fans may reasonably expect the Brewers to receive in return. In order to get some idea of Davis’ potential return value, we can look for other trades involving similar players. This is always tricky because no player is ever perfectly comparable to another. Despite that, I think I’ve identified a few useful examples from recent trades of Mark Trumbo, Evan Gattis, and Yoenis Cespedes.

I have to mention that this exercise will mostly be analyzing their offensive numbers. When one begins to bring in their defensive value, the comparisons do break down a little. For one thing, Davis is limited to left field while some of the others can sort of play other positions. Gattis was a catcher when he was traded, and Trumbo offered the ability to play first base in addition to corner outfield spots. I use the word “ability” loosely for each player, however, as neither is adept at any position. Gattis has served primarily as the Astros’ designated hitter since his trade and hasn’t caught at all. Khris Davis does grade out better than both of them by DRS and FRAA in the outfield, for what it’s worth. Cespedes, though, is easily in class of his own defensively.

But none of these players, except perhaps Cespedes, was acquired for their defense, which is why I think their offenses serve as appropriate tools for comparison. First let’s look at their career numbers to show why I think that is fair:

I should also show you their numbers from their major-league debut to the point at which they were traded:

This group can be separated into two distinct tiers and maybe a third. Again, one could make a decent argument that Cespedes is in a class by himself, but Khris Davis is close or better in several categories. I would argue they’re both in a tier above Trumbo and Gattis, who are very similar offensive players. While Gattis appears to have had similar offense to Davis at the time he was traded, he had less experience and has faltered since the trade.

Service time and salary is another thing to consider. When the Athetics traded Cespedes to the Red Sox he had just 1.5 years of control remaining at $10.5 million average annual value (AAV). Mark Trumbo was moved by the Angels while he still had three years of team control remaining. Evan Gattis was shipped by the Braves to Houston along with four years of team control. After this year, Khris Davis will also offer four more years of team control, including one last pre-arbitration year in which he’ll make near the league minimum.

Yoenis Cespedes offers more in terms of in-game contributions and so in that sense is worth more. But when you factor in the contract situation, things get a bit murkier. This brings Cespedes closer in value to Khris Davis, who is worth some amount more than Trumbo and Gattis. Considering Davis offers at least similar offensive potential and possible greater than the latter two, the combination of offense and amount of team control could theoretically make him a much more attractive trade target.

Now to look at the trades themselves. When the Athletics traded Yoenis Cespedes to the Red Sox they received left-hander Jon Lester and outfielder Jonny Gomes. The A’s also sent a competitive-balance draft pick to the Red Sox. This is a bit of strange trade, as it was purely an exchange of major-league talent as far as the players involved are concerned. The Red Sox appear to have made this move with an eye towards competing again quickly which is and isn’t what I think the Brewers will want to do. I do suspect they’ll be looking for talent close to the majors, but not necessarily established major-league commodities. I also suspect they’ll want more team control.

The Trumbo trade looks closer to what I think the Brewers would be interested in, but it’s also a strange one because it involved three teams. The Angels parted with Mark Trumbo (and later pitcher Andrew Schugel) and received pitchers Hector Santiago (from the White Sox) and Tyler Skaggs (from the Diamondbacks). Santiago was already established in the majors as a 4/5-type starting pitcher. Tyler Skaggs was at one time a highly-rated pitching prospect that had lost some shine. He was the prize of the deal, though, as he did still present mid-rotation upside with perhaps some hope for more. The Skaggs part at least sounds like something the Brewers would consider, even if they seem to have plenty of back-end starters at the moment.

Evan Gattis presents both the most recent trade and perhaps the best comp for what a Khris Davis trade may look like. The rebuilding Braves sent Gattis to the Astros for right-hander Mike Foltynewicz, third baseman Rio Ruiz, and pitcher Andrew Thurman. Foltynewicz is a divisive prospect whose upside has been labeled anywhere from mid-rotation starter to back-end starter to solid reliever. Rio Ruiz is an offense first third base prospect who may have to move to first base. Thurman was more or less just a throw-in piece who offered fastball velocity and a chance to pitch in big-league bullpen someday. I think this package probably best fits what the Brewers may be looking for, an imperfect starting pitching prospect with some upside, a decent position prospect, and a throw-in.

As always, it’s practically impossible to guess what the Brewers can truly expect in return for a player. Markets change over time. Things become valued differently too. Fortunately, right-handed power seems to still be highly valuable. Of course someone must have need of a left-field-only or DH power bat. And that’s where things get complicated. If the Brewers can find a buyer or two then they should be in a position to get good value back for Khris Davis, value that better suits the needs of the team going into the future.

BP Milwaukee’s Julien Assouline took a look at Lucroy’s declined pitch framing skill. It’s been a problem, though pitch framing is not currently a part of WAR calculations so that doesn’t help explain his decline this year. Other defensive metrics are involved in WAR including DRS and FRAA. Lucroy’s -5 DRS is a career low, but his -0.3 FRAA is one of his better marks.

It’s not just his defense that has suffered this year. His offense has been a career worst by both wRC+ (87) and TAv (.244). In 357 plate appearances, he’s hit .248/.315/.376. That slash line is rather bad overall, but that slugging percentage is startlingly bad. His previous low was .391 in his first full season at the major-league level. After that, his lowest slugging percentage was .455. Last year he had a .464 slugging percentage. So he’s seen a drop of 90 points from last year.

Combing his poor defense with his poor offense paints a dismal picture, but there is hope left to cling to. Here are Lucroy’s month-by-month splits:

Lucroy suffered his broken toe in the latter third of April and didn’t return to action until June 1. He only played in 12 games and made 51 plate appearances in April which is partly to blame for the extremity of his poor offensive numbers.

When he did return to action, he slowly began to improve on his numbers. His power numbers started to show up in July and have continued improving in August. Despite the poor batting average, August has been a solid offensive month for Lucroy. This upward trend is very encouraging.

I’m forced to wonder how much Lucroy’s broken toe affected his performance this year. April was horrendous. That happened before the toe, so we can’t blame it on that. But it was just 51 plate appearances. That’s less than two weeks of play. However, the first month back from the injury Lucroy’s slugging numbers were awful, too. It’s just important to recognize that the further we get from the injury the better those numbers get.

Unfortunately, I can’t look at Lucroy’s defensive numbers by the month. I don’t know if he’s statistically improved over the season in that regard. However, looking at his offensive numbers by the month has me hopeful that he hasn’t suddenly fallen off a cliff. I can’t know that the broken toe is to blame for his poor offense or by how much. But it doesn’t really matter if he can continue hitting like he has in July and August. And if he can, he should still be able to remain highly valuable and productive player.

I wrote about that very thing earlier this year while he was still on the disabled list. He struggled in his return to action in July, but I’m willing to overlook that a bit, as he was coming off a month of inactivity after having knee surgery. He also fell into a part time role while the Brewers were attempting to trade Gerardo Parra. The guy needed to kick off some rust. As such, he hit  .186/.271/.349 in a mere 43 plate appearances in 17 games.

In August, after Parra moved to Baltimore, he returned to a starting role and has since excelled. In 75 plate appearances across 21 games, he has hit .253/.318/.640. That’s a pretty solid slash line, even if the on-base percentage is a bit lower than you’d like to see. A .640 slugging percentage rightfully makes up for a lot of things. Teams will put up with a lot in order to get nine home runs in 21 games.

Khris Davis has enjoyed quite the power spike in August. The nine home runs he hit were more than he hit in all his previous months combined (seven). As I mentioned before, he missed all of June with the knee injury and was relegated to part time play in July. But he did play mostly full time in April any May.

The question is not if this home run surge is sustainable. It’s not. Nine home runs per month is an insane rate and no one could be expected to keep that up. Even Barry Bonds only eclipsed that rate once in his illustrious career. No, I’m more interested in how Khris Davis was able to slug so many home runs so far this month to see if there’s something we can learn about him going forward.

The answer seems to be pretty simple. It’s also why I don’t think it’s something he can maintain. Basically in August, Khris Davis started trying to pull the baseball an extreme amount of the balls he put in play. Here is his batted ball profile by month:

As you can see, Khris Davis is starting to put over half his balls in play to his pull side. The interesting thing, though, is that not many of his home runs were truly pulled. Here is his spray chart for August:

Only one of those home runs was of the dead pull varitey. Four more of them came to left-center, two of them right-center, and two more were opposite field home runs.

You’ll have noticed another thing about this spray chart. There are a lot of outs coming to the left side of the infield. That’s his pull side. One last related note is that he’s barely hit anything to the opposite field. Two home runs and and a handful of outs.

Not only is it incredibly hard to hit nine home runs in a month, but also if the cost is pulling everything else, it’s going to make Khris Davis incredibly easy to defend via the shift. The opposition won’t need a right side of the infield or outfield. Davis would become a classic three-true-outcome player and he probably won’t draw enough walks to sustain that profile.

We are dealing with one (incomplete) month of data which is an extremely small sample size. It is interesting to note that he’s been pulling more balls with each passing month, though. If this is a conscious effort, it could end up hurting more than it helps.

Khris Davis has shown a lot of improvement this year. His walk rate has been well above average every month. His current ISO is a career high. His on-base and slugging percentages are an improvement over last year. It would be a shame to see that all evaporate because he suddenly has become too pull happy. Thus, let’s hope this is more of a statistical anomaly than part of a larger trend.