From this awkward beginning there followed a mostly forgettable 2015 season in the Rocky Mountains. Like the Brewers, the Sky Sox stumbled out of the gate and never recovered, finishing in last place (62-81) in the Pacific Coast League’s rugged American Northern Division. Worse yet, with so many of the Brewers’ most exciting prospects distributed throughout the lower levels of the minors, the Sky Sox roster for much of the season lacked the sort of impact talent on which fans of the big-league club love to dream.

The 2016 campaign promises to be a different story.

The Biloxi Shuckers, Milwaukee’s Double-A affiliate, overcame a two-month road trip, won the first-half championship in the Southern League’s South Division, and finished the 2015 season with a league-best 78-59 record. Baseball America recently honored the Shuckers with its Minor-League-Team-of-the-Year Award. The rebuilding Brewers have no real incentive to rush their top prospects to the majors, so most of the players who starred at Biloxi in 2015 will likely open 2016 in Colorado Springs, which should make Sky Sox games must-see television for diehard Brewers fans.

Although parent clubs will not set their minor-league rosters until spring, the Sky Sox lineup should feature an interesting cast of position players, led by shortstop Orlando Arcia, who is Milwaukee’s top prospect and one of baseball’s best. Non-roster invitee Will Middlebrooks likely will compete with Jonathan Villar, acquired in November via trade with Houston, for the Brewers’ starting third base job. Both players are out of minor-league options, which means that Arizona Fall League standout Yadiel Rivera could be squeezed off the Major League roster and join Arcia in the Colorado Springs infield, unless he makes the squad as a utility infielder. The same goes for third baseman Garin Cecchini, a former top-10 prospect in the Boston system and also a recent acquisition by new GM David Stearns. With the Brewers infield further crowded by the arrival of Rule 5 pick Colin Walsh, fans in Colorado Springs could enjoy watching Arcia, Rivera, and Cecchini well into the summer.

Michael Reed, who played 38 games with the Sky Sox last season and subsequently received a cup of coffee with the big-league club, should be the top outfield prospect at Colorado Springs — that is, unless center fielders Tyrone Taylor and Brett Phillips arrive, which could happen as early as Opening Day. Meanwhile, fans of prodigious home runs will enjoy watching to see if former first-round pick Victor Roache can get to his raw power with more consistency in the mile-high altitude.

On the mound, Sky Sox fans should get a long look at two of Milwaukee’s best young starters, right-hander Jorge Lopez and southpaw Josh Hader. Lopez made two starts in the majors at the end of 2015 and has an outside chance of breaking camp as the Brewers’ fifth starter in 2016, either by winning the job from incumbent Zach Davies, who then would return to Colorado Springs, or, should the Brewers decide to give disappointing Matt Garza the “Edwin Jackson Treatment” and banish him to long relief, by joining Davies at the back end of a very young rotation. In all likelihood, however, Lopez will join Hader atop a strong Sky Sox rotation that also could include Biloxi standouts Tyler Wagner and Adrian Houser.

Finally, Milwaukee’s closer-of-the-future could emerge from among the Sky Sox relief corps. Arizona Fall League veterans Damien Magnifico, who led the 2015 Shuckers in saves, and Jacob Barnes, who averaged 10.08 strikeouts per nine innings with Biloxi, along with flame-throwing righty Yhonathan Barrios (acquired from Pittsburgh at the trade deadline for Aramis Ramirez) could comprise a young and formidable back end of the Colorado Springs bullpen.

The Pacific Coast League in general tends to produce inflated offensive numbers, and Colorado Springs in particular presents many of the same challenges that have frustrated Rockies pitchers in Denver for more than twenty years. Brewers fans, therefore, should avoid drawing conclusions about prospects from their Triple-A statistics. Taylor Jungmann, for instance, compiled a dreadful 6.37 ERA in 11 appearances (nine starts) with the Sky Sox before receiving a promotion to Milwaukee. In the majors, he posted a solid 3.77 ERA in 21 starts and became arguably the club’s most pleasant surprise at the big-league level in 2015.

Instead, fans should watch how the new Sky Sox compete, how well they play together, and how much they enjoy doing it. Scouts and other team officials tend to emphasize player development rather than minor-league win-loss records, and with good reason. Preparing prospects for the Major Leagues has always been a minor-league staff’s first priority, and mid-season promotions often wreak havoc on affiliates’ rosters, particularly the successful ones, which makes winning more difficult. On the other hand, good players who play well together tend to win more games, whereas affiliates of parent clubs with weak minor-league systems often lose more games than they win. In 2015, for instance, only the Angels’ affiliate in Salt Lake City and the Marlins’ affiliate in New Orleans lost more PCL games than the Sky Sox. It is no coincidence that those two clubs, the Angels and Marlins, have two of the weakest overall systems in baseball.  

Winning at the Triple-A level, therefore, is not the ultimate goal, but it can be one measure of a system’s overall health. While the 2015 Sky Sox finished 23.5 games out of first place, the American Northern Division’s other three teams produced three of the four best overall records in the 16-team PCL. Oklahoma City, Iowa, and Omaha finished a combined 60 games over .500. Oklahoma City is the Triple-A affiliate of the Los Angeles Dodgers, who boast arguably the top minor-league system in baseball and most certainly three of its top prospects in Corey Seager, Julio Urias, and Jose De Leon. Likewise, Iowa (Cubs) and Omaha (Royals) have helped develop players for two of the most talented rosters in the majors. A much-improved Colorado Springs squad, therefore, will have the opportunity to test its mettle by competing in one of the strongest divisions in all the minors. Considering that many of the best players on the Sky Sox roster will find their way to Miller Park by 2017, that competition should be well worth watching.

Of course the big-league club will always be the feature attraction, so fans hopefully will enjoy cheering on the rebuilding Brewers in 2016. On those long summer nights, however, when frustrations mount and the Milwaukee bullpen is active by the third inning, do yourself a favor, get the MiLB.TV minor-league package, and check out the Sky Sox game. Help, you will see, is on the way.

Team officials noticed.

Tom Flanagan, Milwaukee’s new Farm Director, remembers that Hader “really made an impression on the Biloxi staff” that night in Mobile. “A few days later I talked to [Biloxi pitching coach] Chris Hook,” Flanagan recalled, “and he told me that Hader took over the game from the beginning — that he pitched like he was on a mission.”

Hader’s mission, it seems, is to pitch his way into a Major League rotation. A 19th-round selection of the Orioles in 2012, the young left-hander has succeeded at every level of the minors through Double-A. In 58 starts and 32 relief appearances across three-plus seasons, Hader has compiled a 2.95 ERA with 398 strikeouts in 363.1 innings. As his walk rate has declined, his strikeout rate has increased. Following his successful debut in Mobile, he started another six games for Biloxi, striking out 41 and walking only 11 in 33.2 innings. Then, he capped his 2015 season with a dominant performance in the Arizona Fall League, where, pitching mainly in relief, he posted a miniscule 0.56 ERA and caught the attention of Gammons Daily as one of the season’s standout performers.

First impressions, however, can be double-edged. For all his minor-league success, Hader has yet to alter scouts’ and industry analysts’ early assessments of him as pitcher whose lanky frame and three-quarters delivery raise concerns about durability, and whose below-average secondary offerings limit his potential as a starter. Earlier this month I ranked Hader the No. 4 prospect in Milwaukee’s system and No. 16 overall in the National League Central. BP, however, left him out of the Brewers’ Top-10 altogether.

Time alone will reveal whether or not Hader can answer the durability question by holding up under a starter’s workload over a full season. Flanagan, at least, has no concerns about the young lefty’s delivery. “We’ll monitor it,” Flanagan said, “and we’ll judge it by how he feels in between starts.”  

In 2015, Hader’s three highest pitch totals came in three consecutive starts with Biloxi.  On August 20, 26, and 31, Hader threw 99, 96 and 99 pitches, respectively, and made it through seven innings in each of the last two starts. So while the Brewers have been judicious with their young starter’s pitch count — limiting his innings in the Arizona Fall League, for instance — they also understand that the only way to find out if Hader can handle a starter’s workload is to give him one.

The other knock against Hader has been his below-average secondary offerings. Flanagan notes that Hader “could get away with using only his fastball” because there’s so much deception in the delivery that “righties and lefties take bad swings off him.” That’s not to say, however, that Hader must rely only on his fastball. His slider and changeup, Flanagan said, have been “better than advertised.” Best of all, Hader, whom Flanagan described as an intense competitor with advanced focus and makeup, has “confidence in all three pitches.” In short, he “shows all the signs and tools necessary to be a starter.”

Flanagan was quick to note that Hader “also has the ability to pitch out of the pen.” If, however, Hader does shift to a relief role in the future, he would do so only to satisfy the Brewers’ team needs at the Major League level, not because of his own limitations as a pitcher. His success against both lefties and righties would make him not a lefty specialist but a one-or-two-inning, high-leverage reliever in the mold of Pittsburgh’s Tony Watson. If it comes to that, the Brewers organization would not complain.

Meanwhile, Hader will remain a starter with significant upside. When reminded that Hader had drawn comparisons to established aces such as Chris Sale and Madison Bumgarner, Flanagan urged caution. “You hate to even drop those names,” he said, for it puts too much pressure on the youngster. “But,” he continued, pausing perhaps to recall the impression Hader already has left on his new organization, “you can get excited.”                

MLB’s 2013 realignment into six different five-team divisions, coupled with its decision to reward division winners by forcing two wildcard entrants into a one-game playoff, constitutes by far this century’s most important alteration to the game’s competitive structure. Fair evaluation of a team’s performance, therefore, requires close consideration of the divisional context. In 2015, for instance, the Brewers played the Cubs, Reds, Pirates, and Cardinals 19 games each for a total of 76 games. That’s 47 percent of Milwaukee’s schedule. By comparison, the NFL’s Packers face the division-rival Bears, Lions, and Vikings only six times in sixteen games, or 38 percent of Green Bay’s overall schedule. Divisional play, in short, matters more in baseball than in any other major professional sport. 

If fair evaluation of a team’s performance requires divisional context, then the same holds true when attempting to predict that team’s future fortunes. Prospect junkies love to talk about the best farm systems in baseball and compare organizations; it’s interesting and harmless good fun. For competitive purposes, however, it makes little difference how the quality of the Brewers’ system compares to, say, that of the Blue Jays. On the other hand, in light of divisional play and heavy intra-divisional schedules, comparing the quality of the Brewers’ system of those of the Cubs, Reds, Pirates, and Cardinals becomes not only interesting but essential to any forward-looking analysis.

For several years, the outlook on this front was bleak for Brewers fans. St. Louis, the NL Central’s perennial juggernaut, advanced either to the NL Championship Series or World Series every year from 2011-14.  Pittsburgh, downtrodden for two decades, has earned three consecutive wildcard berths.  And the Chicago Cubs, “lovable losers” for the better part of a century, appear poised to contend for division titles and more well into the future thanks to a remarkable rebuilding effort that has netted them perhaps the most enviable core of young hitters to arrive in the majors in decades.

That final phrase, however–to arrive in the majors–signals a change in how we should view the five NL Central farm systems. Many of the top prospects who made the Cardinals’, Pirates’, and Cubs’ systems so strong have graduated to the major leagues since 2012: Carlos Martinez, Kolten Wong, Stephen Piscotty, and Randal Grichuk in St. Louis; Starling Marte and Gregory Polanco in Pittsburgh; Kris Bryant, Jorge Soler, Addison Russell, Javier Baez, and Kyle Schwarber in Chicago. The question, of course, is what’s left? Do these contenders have enough remaining in their farm systems alone to sustain their success into 2017 and beyond?

For the non-contenders, in particular for the Brewers, 2017 is the key date. By trading Carlos Gomez, whose contract runs through the end of next season, the Milwaukee front office announced to the baseball world that it does not expect to contend in 2016. Adding the cheap and controllable starter Mike Fiers to the Gomez deal merely amplified the announcement; as solid as Fiers has been, he will turn 32 in June 2017, so the Brewers wisely chose to trade Fiers and his years of (likely) diminishing effectiveness in exchange for prospects.  

One way to compare these five systems is to rank the division’s best prospects regardless of affiliation. This, of course, is not the only available method, and it might not even be the best one, but it does offer a useful perspective, for it allows us at least to begin a conversation about which pipeline features the most impact-talent, which is deepest and most balanced, and which, therefore, gives its fans the best reason to hope for the future.  

Counting down from 50 to 1, here are my top 50 prospects in the NL Central, including age on Opening Day 2016 and the team they played for at the highest level they reached in 2015:

Nos. 50-41

50. Donnie Dewees, OF Cubs, 22, Eugene Emeralds (SS Northwest League)
49. Antonio Santillan, RHP Reds, 18, Reds (Arizona Rookie Lg.)
48. Junior Fernandez, RHP Cardinals, 19, Palm Beach Cardinals (A+ Florida State Lg.)**
47. Cody Ponce, RHP Brewers, 21, Wisconsin Timber Rattlers (A Midwest Lg.)
46. Willson Contreras, C/3B Cubs, 23, Tennessee Smokies (AA Southern Lg.)
45. Pierce Johnson, RHP Cubs, 24, Tennessee Smokies (AA Southern Lg.)
44. Edmundo Sosa, SS Cardinals, 20, Johnson City Cardinals (Appalachian Rookie Lg.)
43. Keury Mella, RHP Reds, 22, Daytona Tortugas (A+ Florida State Lg.)
42. Alex Blandino, SS Reds, 23, Pensacola Blue Wahoos (AA Southern Lg.)
41. Kevin Newman, SS Pirates, 22, West Virginia Power (A South Atlantic Lg.)

**Junior Fernandez appeared in two games with the Palm Beach Cardinals but spent most of the season in the rookie Gulf Coast League.

Another dozen-or-so players could make a case for inclusion on this list somewhere in the 50-41 range. Assuming he sticks at shortstop, which appears likely, and assuming his hit-tool develops as expected, Edmundo Sosa could have the highest ceiling of any player in this group.  

Cody Ponce makes the cut as the only Brewer in the list’s “bottom” 10. Projections on Ponce are all over the place. MLB.com rates him the 29th-best prospect in the system, which, given Ponce’s excellent 2015 debut, would be good news for the system. Others, including some folks here at BP Milwaukee, are more bullish on the young righthander. He makes the top-50 and will ascend the rankings with a repeat performance at (likely) High-A Brevard County in 2016.

Nos. 40-31

40. Jake Gatewood, SS Brewers, 20, Wisconsin Timber Rattlers (A Midwest Lg.)
39. Magneuris Sierra, OF Cardinals, 19, Peoria Chiefs (A Midwest Lg.)
38. Harrison Bader, OF Cardinals, 21, Peoria Chiefs (A Midwest Lg.)
37. Harold Ramirez, OF Pirates, 21, Bradenton Marauders (A+ Florida State Lg.)
36. Luke Weaver, RHP Cardinals, 22, Palm Beach Cardinals (A+ Florida State Lg.)
35. Zach Davies, RHP Brewers, 23, Milwaukee Brewers (Majors)
34. Carl Edwards, Jr., RHP Cubs, 24, Chicago Cubs (Majors)**
33. Dylan Cease, RHP Cubs, 20, Cubs (Arizona Rookie League)
32. Kodi Medeiros, LHP Brewers, 19, Wisconsin Timber Rattlers (A Midwest Lg.)
31. Cole Tucker, SS Pirates, 19, West Virginia Power (A South Atlantic Lg.)

**Carl Edwards, Jr. appeared in five games for the Cubs at the major-league level but spent the majority of the season with the Triple-A Iowa Cubs.

Dylan Cease at #33 might seem like an aggressive ranking, but the former Vanderbilt commit, back from TJ surgery, has more upside than the other pitchers in this group–so much so, in fact, that Baseball America rated him the #2 overall prospect in the Arizona League after the 2015 season.

The 40-31 group includes three Brewers.  Jake Gatewood will not stick at shortstop, and he needs time to develop his hit-tool, but prodigious power alone keeps him on this list. Zach Davies always profiles as a back-end starter and always outperforms his profile. He’s the lowest-rated player on this list who has major-league experience, closed the 2015 season with back-to-back scoreless outings in Chicago and San Diego, and has the inside track on a 2016 rotation spot. Kodi Medeiros, the Brewers’ top pick (12th overall) in the 2014 draft, performed very well as a teenager in the Midwest League, where he started 16 games and averaged more than a strikeout-per-inning.

Nos. 30-21

30. Eloy Jimenez, OF Cubs, 19, Eugene Emeralds (SS Northwest Lg.)
29. Ke’Bryan Hayes, 3B Pirates, 19, West Virginia Black Bears (SS NY-Penn Lg.)
28. Marco Gonzales, LHP Cardinals, 24, St. Louis Cardinals (Majors)**
27. Jack Flaherty, RHP Cardinals, 20, Peoria Chiefs (A Midwest Lg.)
26. Jorge Lopez, RHP Brewers, 23, Milwaukee Brewers (Majors)**
25. Devin Williams, RHP Brewers, 21, Wisconsin Timber Rattlers (A Midwest Lg.)
24. Gilbert Lara, SS Brewers, 18, Helena Brewers (Pioneer Rookie Lg.)
23. Cody Reed, LHP Reds, 22, Pensacola Blue Wahoos (AA Southern Lg.)
22. Monte Harrison, OF Brewers, 20, Wisconsin Timber Rattlers (A+ Midwest Lg.)
21. Marcos Diplan, RHP Brewers, 19, Helena Brewers (Pioneer Rookie Lg.)

**Marco Gonzales made one start in the majors but spent the majority of 2015 with the Triple-A Memphis Redbirds.

**Jorge Lopez made two starts in the majors but spent the majority of 2015 with the Double-A Biloxi Shuckers.

Eloy Jimenez, one of most coveted players in the 2013 international class, makes the top-30 thanks to a combination of impressive raw tools and better-than-expected production in the Northwest League. Ke’Bryan Hayes, a 2015 draftee, earned praise for his advanced approach in the GCL.

Here, the mounting strength of the Milwaukee system begins to show itself: a whopping five Brewers appear in the 21-30 range. Distinguishing between these five, at least for the purpose of ranking prospects, is a true exercise in splitting hairs. Jorge Lopez, of course, is so close to the majors that he actually reached them in September 2015. Devin Williams had perhaps the best performance of the group this past season. The other three–Gilbert Lara, Monte Harrison, and Marcos Diplan–boast three of the system’s highest ceilings. Put them in whatever order you please, and it remains a strong contingent.

Nos. 20-11

20. Reese McGuire, C Pirates, 21, Bradenton Marauders (A+ Florida State Lg.)
19. Ian Happ, OF Cubs, 21, South Bend Cubs (A Midwest Lg.)
18. Demi Orimoloye, OF Brewers, 19, Brewers (Arizona Rookie Lg.)
17. Duane Underwood, RHP Cubs, 21, Myrtle Beach Pelicans (A+ Carolina League)
16. Josh Hader, LHP Brewers, 21, Biloxi Shuckers (AA Southern League)
15. Alen Hanson, 2B Pirates, 23, Indianapolis Indians (AAA International Lg.)
14. Tyler Stephenson, C Reds, 19, Billings Mustangs (Pioneer Rookie Lg.)
13. Amir Garrett, LHP Reds, 23, Dayton Tortugas (A+ Florida State Lg.)
12. Billy McKinney, OF Cubs, 21, Tennessee Smokies (AA Southern Lg.)
11. Jesse Winker, OF Reds, 22, Pensacola Blue Wahoos (AA Southern Lg.)

Billy McKinney and Jesse Winker had pedestrian seasons in 2015 but still could emerge as impact players for their organizations. A full season at Triple-A will determine their respective trajectories. The sleeper in this group is Tyler Stephenson, a big-bodied teenage catcher with some power who enjoyed a nice debut at Billings and projects to stick behind the plate.

Call me crazy, but I’m as bullish on this group’s two Brewers, Hader and Orimoloye, as anyone could be. Milwaukee stole Demi Orimoloye in the 4th round and then signed him to a reasonable bonus of $450,000. At 6’4”-225, the young Canadian outfielder offers a power-speed combo that could make him one of the steals-of-the-draft. His Arizona-League debut included a .292/.319/.518 split with 6 homers and 19 stolen bases in only 33 games. Josh Hader, meanwhile, entered 2015 as Baseball America’s reigning California League Pitcher-of-the-Year–no small feat. This past season, Hader threw 104 combined Double-A innings between Corpus Christi and Biloxi, compiled a 3.03 ERA, and struck out a whopping 119. One would like to see how the young lefthander performs with an increased workload, but it seems fair to evaluate him as a future starter until he proves he cannot start.  

Nos. 10-1

10. Jameson Taillon, RHP Pirates, 24, Injured–did not pitch
9. Trent Clark, OF Brewers, 19, Helena Brewers (Pioneer Rookie Lg.)
8. Brett Phillips, OF Brewers, 21, Biloxi Shuckers (AA Southern Lg.)
7. Gleyber Torres, SS Cubs, 19, Myrtle Beach Pelicans (A+ Carolina Lg.)**
6. Austin Meadows, OF Pirates, 20, Altoona Curve (AA Eastern Lg.)**
5. Robert Stephenson, RHP Reds, 23, Louisville Bats (AAA International Lg.)
4. Josh Bell, 1B Pirates, 23, Indianapolis Indians (AAA International Lg.)
3. Alex Reyes, RHP Cardinals, 21, Springfield Cardinals (AA Texas Lg.)
2. Orlando Arcia, SS Brewers, 21, Biloxi Shuckers (AA Southern Lg.)
1. Tyler Glasnow, RHP Pirates, 22, Indianapolis Indians (AAA International Lg.)

**Gleyber Torres appeared in seven games for Myrtle Beach but spent the majority of 2015 with the South Bend Cubs of the Low-A Midwest League.

**Austin Meadows appeared in six games for Altoona but spent the majority of 2015 with the Bradenton Marauders of the High-A Florida State League.

Two lost seasons have dulled Jameson Taillon’s luster, so his ranking here assumes a return to full health. Either way, Pittsburgh will have more impact-players arriving at PNC Park before long.

Once again the Brewers are well represented, and this is an important group in which to be represented. These are the players who have the potential to become first-division regulars, all-stars, and even franchise cornerstones. A frightening outfield injury notwithstanding, Trent Clark, Milwaukee’s top pick in 2015 (15th overall) enjoyed an excellent debut. Between Arizona and Helena he slashed .309/.424/.430, swiped 25 bags, and showed advanced plate-discipline. He should hit at or near the top of the Brewers’ lineup for many years. Brett Phillips’s numbers fell off once he left Lancaster’s cozy confines, but that happens with most prospects. His defense rates as plus across the board, but he must continue to hit in order to justify the Gomez-Fiers trade, of which he was the centerpiece.  The smart money says he will. Finally, Orlando Arcia enjoyed the best campaign of his young career, carried Biloxi to a first-half division championship, and cemented his status as one of the best prospects in baseball. If he continues to develop as he has thus far, he will take over as the Brewers’ starting shortstop no later than 2017 and will be one of the special young players around whom franchises build their teams. 

All told, the final per-club tally of Top-50 prospects looks like this:

Milwaukee 14
Pittsburgh 10
Chicago 10
St. Louis 8
Cincinnati 8

With four players in the top-10 and six in the top-20, Pittsburgh still has the most impact-talent in its system. A year ago, of course, the Cubs would have dominated that upper-echelon. It is fair to assume that those two teams will remain formidable at the major-league level even as their minor-league systems begin to appear less so.

Conventional wisdom holds that St. Louis always will develop pitching. With Alex Reyes in the fold, the cupboard is hardly bare. It is depleted, though, and that makes the future NL Central even more interesting

No doubt Cincinnati fans would like to see a few more names on this list. In fairness, however, the Reds have promoted many of their promising young pitchers, including Raisel Iglesias and Brandon Finnegan, and the minor-league system does have some impact-talent on the way.

So where does that leave Milwaukee? Sheer volume alone does not make a system strong, but it helps. Fourteen Brewers made this list; four others I considered did not. All eighteen have a better-than-average chance of making it to the majors, and most of those eighteen have a chance to make good careers in the majors. The organization appears strong at shortstop, strong and very deep in the outfield, and deep in starting pitching. It lacks corner infielders and a projectable ace. Buster Olney reports that new GM David Stearns will listen to trade offers involving anyone on the roster, so at this point it is difficult to project how the 2016 Brewers will look, let alone the team’s composition in future years. If, as reported, the new regime plans to cultivate the farm system’s strength by exchanging current major-league players for prospects who might fill some of the system’s gaps, then there is every reason to expect that Milwaukee’s prospect-pipeline, which at minimum has closed the gap on its division rivals in the past two seasons, will become the NL Central’s strongest system, if it has not already. Clearly, this bodes well for the Brewers’ chances to compete at the major-league level in 2017 and beyond.   

The Saguaros’ Milwaukee contingent consists of four pitchers and four position players, most of whom spent the 2015 minor-league regular season with the Double-A Biloxi Shuckers, so Brewers fans should see these players at Miller Park within the next two seasons. While top prospect Orlando Arcia will skip the AFL, the Saguaros’ roster does feature plenty of interesting young talent, including three of the four players Milwaukee acquired from Houston in exchange for Carlos Gomez and Mike Fiers at the 2015 trade deadline.

Outfielder Brett Phillips headlines the group. A sixth-round pick of the Astros in 2012, Phillips entered 2015 as the No. 4 overall prospect in Houston’s loaded minor-league system. In stops at High-A Lancaster and Double-A Corpus Christi, he did nothing to dull that luster, swatting 16 homers and swiping 15 bases in 97 games. Phillips’s power-speed combo, coupled with his relative youth — at 21, he remains young for his level — gives him an intriguing ceiling as a future center fielder. Brewers fans will recall that former GM Doug Melvin added starting pitcher Mike Fiers to the Gomez trade in order to acquire Phillips, who, if projections hold, should hit near the top of the Milwaukee lineup for many years, starting perhaps as early as 2017.

Former fifth-round pick Michael Reed is Milwaukee’s other position-player-to-watch this fall. Like Phillips — though perhaps less so — Reed combines the arm strength of a corner outfielder and the speed of a center fielder. Unlike Phillips, Reed was a fringe prospect prior to his solid 2015 campaign at Biloxi, where he slashed .278/.379/.422, stole 25 bases, and earned a late-season promotion to Triple-A Colorado Springs. Although he often hit cleanup for Biloxi, Reed has only 12 homers in 1,533 minor-league at-bats, so he does not project as a middle-of-the-order bat in Milwaukee. The Brewers certainly will make use of Reed’s above-average on-base and baserunning skills, as well as his quality feel for the game, but his lack of power places him behind other outfielders such as Phillips and Domingo Santana. In short, there is no obvious spot for Reed in Milwaukee’s starting-outfield-of-the-future. But a power surge in Arizona could change things in the short term.

Infielders Yadiel Rivera and Nathan Orf round out the Brewers’ position-player contingent at Surprise. Arguably the organization’s best defender, Rivera has the glove and arm strength to play shortstop for the Brewers. If he can replicate the .345 OBP he posted at Biloxi, and if incumbent Jean Segura is traded this offseason, Rivera could find himself in Milwaukee’s starting lineup as early as Opening Day 2016, keeping the seat warm until Orlando Arcia arrives. Orf, meanwhile, has the on-base skills and versatility — he once played all nine positions in a single game for the Brevard County Manatees — to challenge for a future spot on the Major League bench, which would be a remarkable achievement for a 5-foot-9 second baseman who went undrafted out of Baylor despite leading the Bears with a .470 OBP.

The group of four Brewers pitchers on the Saguaros’ roster includes two starters acquired along with Phillips and Santana in the Gomez-Fiers trade, southpaw Josh Hader and right-hander Adrian Houser.

One could make a case for Hader as the most underrated prospect in all of baseball. A nineteenth-round pick in 2012, Hader already has been traded twice, first from Baltimore to Houston in the 2013 deal that sent Bud Norris to the Orioles, and then from Houston to Milwaukee last summer. Scouts continue to express concerns over his durability and secondary offerings, which explains why some view him as a future reliever. Most major publications, therefore, have been conservative in their rankings and careful in their projections of Hader. He has sneaked onto a few organizational top-ten lists but without much helium. The doubts and caution have been understandable to-date, but now, after three full professional seasons, Hader’s age, ceiling, and on-field results justify more bullish, even exuberant expectations. In 2015, Hader, only 21, appeared in 24 games at the Double-A level, including 17 starts, where he compiled a 3.03 ERA in 104 IP with 35 walks and 119 strikeouts. Overall, the walks remain a bit high, but the trend leaves room for optimism. At each minor-league stop where he logged at least seven starts, Hader’s walk rate declined while his strikeout rate improved. The Brewers would be wise not to allow it, but if he were permitted to compete for a rotation spot in 2016 it would not be unreasonable to think he could win it. He should be considered one of the organization’s top-five prospects.

Houser, meanwhile, might be Milwaukee’s fastest-rising prospect on the pitching side. Tagged with the “future back-end starter” label, Houser threw his final pitch of 2014 for the Class-A Midwest League’s Quad Cities River Bandits. He threw the final pitch of his 2015 breakout campaign against the Chicago Cubs at Miller Park. Like Hader, Houser has yet to prove himself at Triple-A, where he should spend most of 2016, but his quick ascent and fine performance at Biloxi (4-1, 2.92 ERA, 32:6 K:BB in 37 IP) make him one to watch.

Relievers Jacob Barnes and Damien Magnifico round out Saguaro’s Milwaukee contingent. After starting 35 games in 2013-14, Barnes thrived following his conversion to relief in late May. Magnifico could be a future back-end reliever for the big-league club.

Late-October baseball means the World Series — exhilarating times for fans of the two remaining clubs and for all who love the game. Late-October baseball also means prospects-on-the-cusp playing in relative anonymity under the bright Arizona sun. For all eight of Milwaukee’s Surprise Saguaros, but especially for youngsters such as Phillips and Hader, a few weeks in the Arizona Fall League provide another opportunity to show Brewers fans that their team’s future could be equally bright.

RHP Tyler Cravy: 6 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 3 K — 3.63 ERA

RHP Rob Wooten (W, 3-1): 2 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K — 6.30 ERA

CF Logan Schafer: 2-for-4, R, SB (3) — .256 AVG

3B Matt Dominguez: 2-for-3, 2B, BB, K — .263 AVG

C Juan Centeno: 1-for-4, RBI, walk-off single — .259 AVG

Biloxi Shuckers (11-15), 5.5 GB

RHP Brooks Hall (L, 7-6): 5 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 5 K — 4.66 ERA

RHP Manny Barreda: 2 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 5 K — 3.49 ERA

CF Michael Reed: 2-for-4, 2 2B, RBI, K — .281 AVG

LF Victor Roache: 2-for-4, 2 2B — .244 AVG

Brevard County Manatees (12-13), 5.5 GB

Game One: Brevard County 1, St. Lucie 0 (susp., mid-1st)

Game Two: PPD, rain

Wisconsin Timber Rattlers (8-19), 14.5 GB

RHP Eric Hanhold: 3 IP, 4 H, 3 ER, 0 BB, 2 K — 9.00 ERA

RHP Devin Williams (L, 2-7): 3 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 3 K — 3.17 ERA

CF Luis Aviles: 3-for-4, 2B, R, K — .200 AVG

1B Alan Sharkey: 2-for-5, 3B, R, RBI — .245 AVG

Helena Brewers (16-17), 3 GB

RHP Bubba Blau: 5 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 6 K –8.15 ERA

LHP Chad Reeves (1-0): 2 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 0 K — 4.96 ERA

SS Jake Gatewood: 1-for-2, 2B, 2 R, RBI — .254 AVG

2B George Iskenderian: 4-for-4, 2B, 2 R, 2 RBI, BB, SB (8) — .349 AVG

C Dustin Houle: 2-for-5, R, 2 RBI, game-winning single — .409 AVG

AZL Brewers (12-15), 5 GB

LHP Brad Kuntz: 4 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 5 K — 0.86 ERA

RHP Jose Flores (W, 1-0): 3 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 0 K — 1.35 ERA

LHP Shawn Clowers (S, 1): 2 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 2 K — 1.50 ERA

CF Trent Clark: 1-for-3, R, BB, K, SB (6) — .273 AVG

DH Demi Orimoloye: 0-for-4, 2 K — .333 AVG

DSL Brewers (19-27)

RHP Nelson Hernandez (W, 2-2): 7 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 3 K — 6.55 ERA

LHP Boanerges Nova (S, 1): 2 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 3 K — 2.93 ERA

1B Nicol Valderrey: 1-for-3, 2B, R — .282 AVG

Prospect of the Day:

Thursday evening featured several strong pitching performances at the lower levels, a pair of game-winning singles by Brewers catchers, and another high-profile injury. Helena SS Jake Gatewood had to leave the game against Missoula after he was hit on the wrist by a fastball, though thankfully the early reports on Gatewood’s injury have been positive. In the Arizona Rookie League, Farm favorite Demi Orimoloye had a tough day at the plate (0-for-4, 2 K), so the Prospect-of-the-Day Award Committee had to give their prestigious prize to another 2015 draftee:

Helena 2B George Iskenderian sparked the Brewers’ comeback from an 8-2 deficit to an exciting 9-8 win over a very good Missoula Osprey team. Iskenderian filled the box score on Thursday, finishing 4-for-4 with a double, two runs, two RBI, a walk, and his eighth stolen base of the season. A seventh-round pick who played shortstop at the University of Miami (FL), Iskenderian has settled into his new role as Helena’s everyday second baseman. He hit third in the lineup for a University of Miami team that advanced to the College World Series, so perhaps his early success as a professional should not come as a surprise. A late-season promotion to Wisconsin might be in order.

What I’ll Be Watching on Friday:

Reigning PCL Pitcher-of-the-Week Hiram Burgos is scheduled to start for Colorado Springs at Omaha. At 27, Burgos no longer qualifies as a “prospect” per se. Then again, neither did Corey Kluber or Chris Heston when they broke out at age 27.

I’ll also be watching the 11-15 Biloxi Shuckers, who were the best story in the minor leagues during the first half of the season, when they endured a two-month road trip before their new home stadium finally opened. Rather than use their situation as an excuse, the Shuckers embraced their peripatetic fate and rolled to a South Division championship (43-25). Top prospects Orlando Arcia, Tyrone Taylor, and Michael Reed remain on the Biloxi roster, so I’ll be curious to see whether the Shuckers can regain their first-half form.

RHP Josh Roenicke: 5.1 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 0 BB, 5 K, 1 HR — 5,24 ERA

RHP Jaye Chapman (W, 2-1): 2 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K — 3.43 ERA

3B Matt Dominguez: 2-for-3, 2B, R, 2 BB — .259 AVG

C Nevin Ashley: 2-for-5, 2B, RBI, walk-off single — .314 AVG

Biloxi Shuckers (11-14), 4.5 GB

RHP Johnny Hellweg (L, 0-3): 2 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 4 BB, K, HR — 6.75 ERA

LHP Brent Suter: 3 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 2 K — 2.02 ERA

LF Victor Roache: 2-for-4, 2B, HR (4), R, 3 RBI — .233 AVG

RF Michael Reed: 2-for-2, 2 R, 2 BB — .278 AVG

Brevard County Manatees (12-13), 6 GB

Postponed: Rain

Wisconsin Timber Rattlers (8-18), 13.5 GB

RHP David Burkhalter (L, 3-6): 3.1 IP, 8 H, 5 ER, 1 BB, 4 K — 4.52 ERA

RHP Cody Ponce: 2 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K — 1.93 ERA

SS Blake Allemand: 1-for-2, R, 2 BB — .247 AVG

3B Luis Aviles: 1-for-4, HR (1), R, RBI, K — .164 AVG

Helena Brewers (15-17), 4 GB

RHP Marcos Diplan (L, 2-1): 4.1 IP, 5 H, 4 ER, 3 BB, 2 K — 3.81 ERA

LHP Jake Drossner: 3 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 1 K — 3.38 ERA

SS Jake Gatewood: 3-for-4, 2B, R, RBI — .250 AVG

DH Dustin Houle: 2-for-3, RBI — .412 AVG

AZL Brewers (11-15), 5 GB

RHP David Lucroy: 4 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 1 K — 4.50 ERA

RHP Gentry Fortuno (W, 1-1): 2 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 0 K, 1 HR — 1.93 ERA

LF Joantgel Segovia: 2-for-5, 2B, 2 R — .368 AVG

SS Gilbert Lara: 2-for-4, 3 R, BB, K — .314 AVG

RF Demi Orimoloye: 3-for-4, 2 HR (5), 2 R, 7 RBI, BB, K, SB (11) — .353 AVG

DSL Brewers (18-27)

RHP Rodrigo Benoit (L, 2-1): 6 IP, 9 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 6 K — 2.47 ERA

RHP Deymar Alvarado: 2 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 0 K — 6.75 ERA

SS Ignacio Otano: 2-for-4, 2 2B, R, RBI — .360 AVG

3B Yerison Pena: 2-for-4, R, K — .363 AVG

Prospect of the Day:

This is getting ridiculous. AZL Brewers RF Demi Orimoloye had another huge game in the rookie league (3-for-4, 2 HR (5), 2 R, 7 RBI, BB, K, SB (11)). He was the prospect-of-the-day across all of baseball, let alone among Brewers affiliates. And he is no stranger to this space in our farm update.  n fact, I’m almost ready to propose that from now on we call this feature the Demi Orimoloye Prospect-of-the-Day Award.

Let’s put Orimoloye’s first month of professional ball in context. Last season, the Seattle Mariners selected Canadian high-school outfielder Gareth Morgan 74th overall. Enamored by Morgan’s plus raw power, the Mariners gave him an eye-popping, well-over-slot $2 million bonus. In 2014, Morgan struggled so badly in the Arizona League (155 AB, 16 BB:73 K, .148/.244/.252) that he is now repeating the level. Two days ago he hit his fifth professional home run in 258 at-bats. Last week he stole his eighth professional base. None of this is meant to diminish Morgan as a prospect. Baseball is supposed to be hard. And the young Mariners outfielder has shown promising signs of late.

This season, the Brewers paid Canadian high-school outfielder Orimoloye (121st overall) $450,000. Sixteen games and 68 at-bats later, Orimoloye leads the Arizona League in home runs and ranks fourth in steals. He also ranks seventh in average (.353), second in slugging (.691), and second in OPS (1.071) behind 22-year-old White Sox 1B Cody Daily. According to Baseball America, Orimoloye has a “chiseled” 6-foot-4 frame, is a “plus runner with a plus arm and plus raw power,” and “could develop into a legitimate five-tool player.” Thus far the lone blemish on Orimoloye’s stat line is his 1:20 BB:K ratio, but the significance of that ratio pales in comparison to the elite power-speed combo he has flashed and the fact that his plus power already plays in game competition. He is making the game look easy.

In short, it’s a small sample, but Demi Orimoloye looks to be the early favorite for steal-of-the-draft. Learn the name, Brewers fans. Learn it, and dream.

What I’ll Be Watching on Thursday:

Demi Orimoloye.

RHP Tyler Thornburg (L, 2-6): 5 IP, 8 H, 5 ER, 3 BB, 3 K, 1 HR — 5.33 ERA

RHP Austin Ross: 2 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 3 K — 1.59 ERA

C Juan Centeno: 3-for-5, 3B, R, 2 RBI — .259 AVG

3B Matt Dominguez: 2-for-4, R, RBI, BB — .254 AVG

Biloxi Shuckers (11-13), 4.5 GB

RHP Wily Peralta: 5 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 5 K, 1 HR — 1.04 ERA (rehab assignment)

RHP Jacob Barnes (BS, 1)(W, 2-4): 2 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 2 K — 3.36 ERA

3B Nathan Orf: 2-for-3, 2 R, RBI, BB, K — .272 AVG

SS Orlando Arcia: 1-for-3, 2 R, BB, SB (15) — .309 AVG

Brevard County Manatees (12-13), 5.5 GB

Game One:

RHP Cy Sneed (W, 2-1): 7 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 5 K — 2.88 ERA

1B Garrett Cooper: 2-for-3, R, RBI, K — .288 AVG

CF Omar Garcia: 1-for-3, RBI — .262 AVG

DH Clint Coulter: 1-for-3, R, K — .259 AVG

Game Two (Makeup of 7/20 PPD):

LHP Zach Hirsch (W, 1-0): 5 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 1 K — 3.60 ERA

RHP Preston Gainey (S, 3): 2 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 0 K — 2.56 ERA

DH Taylor Brennan: 1-for-3, 2B, R, RBI, K — .247 AVG

Wisconsin Timber Rattlers (8-17), 13.5 GB

LHP David Carver (L, 0-1): 5 IP, 9 H, 5 ER, 2 BB, 3 K, 1 HR — 9.00 ERA

RHP Scott Lieser: 2 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 1 K — 4.95 ERA

RF Elvis Rubio: 2-for-4, RBI — .236 AVG

LF Sthervin Matos: 1-for-3, 3B, R, K — .206 AVG

Helena Brewers (15-16), 3 GB

LHP Christian Trent (W, 2-1): 5 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 4 K — 3.92 ERA

RHP Jordan Yamamoto (S, 1): 4 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 3 K — 6.75 ERA

C Dustin Houle: 2-for-4, 2B, 2 RBI, K — .357 AVG

3B Steven Karkenny: 2-for-4, RBI, SB (5) — .241 AVG

2B George Iskenderian: 2-for-4, 2B, R, K — .320 AVG

AZL Brewers (10-15), 6 GB

RHP Nash Walters: 1 IP, 0 H, 3 ER, 6 BB, 0 K — 4.61 ERA

RHP Alex Farina (W, 1-0): 3 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 4 K — 0.00 ERA

RHP Aaron Myers (S, 2): 2 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 2 K — 1.23 ERA

LF Joantgel Segovia: 4-for-4, 2 R, RBI, BB, SB (7) — .367 AVG

CF Trent Clark: 2-for-4, 3B, R, BB — .293 AVG

RF Demi Orimoloye: 1-for-5, HR (3), R, 3 RBI, 3 K — .328 AVG

DSL Brewers (18-26)

RHP Junior Flores (W, 1-2): 5.1 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 3 BB, 8 K — 4.26 ERA

RHP Juan Diaz: 2.2 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 5 K — 6.66 ERA

RF Anderson Jesus: 4-for-5, 2 2B, R, 3 RBI — .280 AVG

2B Julio Mendez: 4-for-6, 2B, 3 R, RBI — .262 AVG

SS Ignacio Otano: 3-for-5, R, 2 RBI, BB, K — .356 AVG

Prospect(s) of the Day:

By far the biggest news of the night on Tuesday came from Helena, where OF Monte Harrison suffered a broken ankle while running the bases. While there’s never a good time for such things, Harrison’s injury is especially unlucky in light of the fact that he has been scorching-hot in July (.400/.493/.545). He’s also a hard worker with a great attitude. BP Milwaukee wishes Monte a speedy recovery.

Elsewhere, as was the case in the season’s first half, much of the night’s good news came from Biloxi. Making his third minor-league rehab appearance, Brewers RHP Wily Peralta went five innings and surrendered only one earned run while throwing 65 percent of his pitches for strikes. After the Shuckers surrendered the lead in the top of the ninth,3B Nathan Orf delivered a one-out, walk-off single in the bottom of the inning to give Biloxi a 5-4 win.

The Prospect(s) of the Day Award, however, goes to the Arizona-League Brewers Outfield.  In a 6-5 win over the AZL Dodgers, LF Joantgel Segovia, CF Trent Clark, and RF Demi Orimoloye combined to go 7-for-12 with 4 runs, 4 RBI, a home run, and a stolen base. Farm fans will recognize Clark and Orimoloye as two of Milwaukee’s higher-profile prospects, high-school bats selected in the first and fourth rounds, respectively, of the 2015 FYP draft. Segovia, though perhaps not a familiar name to Brewers fans, also is a good prospect in his own right. Part of Milwaukee’s 2013 international class, Segovia has put together an impressive .379/.451/.427 slash line in 314 AB across two seasons with the DSL and AZL Brewers. Lauded for his plate discipline, outfield defense, and overall makeup, Segovia has the look of a leadoff hitter.  Only 18, he already qualifies as one of the top seven or eight outfield prospects in the system.

What I’ll Be Watching on Wednesday:

RHP Marcos Diplan will start for the Helena Brewers at Missoula (Diamondbacks). Fans of the Pioneer League know that, despite average team batting numbers, the Osprey lineup is stacked with offensive talent. Led by three of the league’s top-six hitters in OPS (1B Austin Byler, C Luke Lowery, and SS Isan Diaz), Missoula will pose a serious challenge for one of Milwaukee’s top pitching prospects.

RHP Drew Gagnon (L, 1-10): 4.1 IP, 9 H, 6 ER, 3 BB, 0 K, 2 HR — 6.96 ERA

RHP Wirfin Obispo: 3 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 3 K — 5.63 ERA

C Nevin Ashley: 3-for-3, HR (6), 2 R, RBI, BB — .309 AVG

DH Matt Clark: 2-for-2, RBI, BB — .263 AVG

Biloxi Shuckers (10-13), 4.5 GB

RHP Jorge Lopez (L, 8-4): 6 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 6 K, 2 HR -— 2.70 ERA

LHP Jed Bradley: 2 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 1 K — 5.27 ERA

SS Orlando Arcia: 0-for-4, K — .309 AVG

1B Nick Ramirez: 0-for-4, 3 K — .274 AVG

Brevard County Manatees (10-13), 6 GB

Postponed: Rain

Wisconsin Timber Rattlers (8-16), 12.5 GB

RHP Angel Ventura (W, 4-4): 6 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 4 BB, 2 K — 3.42 ERA

LHP Kodi Medeiros (s, 1): 3 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 2 K — 4.13 ERA

DH Carlos Leal: 3-for-4, HR (2), R, RBI -— .318 AVG

SS Blake Allemand: 2-for-5, R, RBI — .254 AVG

Helena Brewers (14-16), 4 GB

LHP Drake Owenby (L, 1-1): 3.1 IP, 13 H, 8 ER, 2 BB, 0 K, 1 HR — 6.75 ERA

RHP J.B. Cole: 5 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 2 K — 4.68 ERA

2B George Iskenderian: 3-for-4, R, K — .310

AZL Brewers (9-15), 6 GB

RHP Caleb Smith (L, 1-3): 3.1 IP, 7 H, 5 ER, 1 BB, 1 K — 6.04 ERA

RHP John Olczak: 2 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 3 K — 1.93 ERA

SS Gilbert Lara: 0-for-4, K — .313 AVG

RF Demi Orimoloye: 1-for-4, 2B, 2 K — .339 AVG

DSL Brewers (17-26)

RHP Nattino Diplan (L, 1-5): 7 IP, 7 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 6 K — 4.17 ERA

2B Franly Mallen: 1-for-4, 2B, R, RBI — .259 AVG

RF Yerison Pena: 1-for-3, 2B, R, RBI, BB — .356 AVG

Prospect of the Day:

Yesterday I wrote that I would be most interested in seeing how the Wisconsin Timber Rattlers competed against the Kane County Cougars, who had put together a ridiculous 21-3 record to open the Midwest League’s second half.  It turns out that the Rattlers were pretty much the only thing worth watching on Monday.

For Milwaukee’s other affiliates, it was a lousy evening in the results department.  Aside from Wisconsin, the other five teams that played on Monday were outscored by a combined 40-15.  There were a few solid pitching performances, particularly of the bullpen-saving variety, but overall the individual numbers were as pedestrian as the team totals.

Wisconsin RHP Angel Ventura, therefore, wins Prospect-of-the-Day thanks to an effective performance at Kane County.  Ventura, 22, has been well off the Brewers’ prospect radar.  Signed as an international free agent in 2010, he spent three years in the DSL and one year in the AZL, posting mediocre numbers at both stops.  In 2015, however—his first year of full-season A-ball—Ventura has been one of Wisconsin’s most consistent performers (4-4, 3.42 ERA, 79 IP, 71 H, 3 HR, 32 BB, 73 K).  From mid-May through early-July he kept his ERA between 2.18 and 2.84.  Set aside a rough outing at Kane County on July 9th (4.2 IP, 9 ER), and his ERA still would stand at 2.54 rather than 3.42.  Using a mid-90s fastball and an average slider, he has amassed nearly a strikeout per inning.  On the whole, while it remains difficult to project a future role for all young players, particularly those who are in the midst of a mini-breakout at 22, Ventura at least has established himself as a prospect worth watching.

Speaking of which:

What I’ll Be Watching on Tuesday:

Wily Peralta will make his third rehab start, this time with the Biloxi Shuckers, who host the Mobile Bay Bears.  Braden Shipley, one of Arizona’s top prospects, is scheduled to start for Mobile.

Friday, July 17:

RHP Josh Roenicke (W, 5-7): 5 IP, 5 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 3 K — 5.26 ERA

RHP Tim Dillard: 1.2 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 1 K — 6.49 ERA

1B Jason Rogers: 3-for-5, HR, R, 4 RBI — .400 AVG

2B Elian Herrera: 2-for-4, R, 2 RBI — .378 AVG

Sky Sox Team RISP: 5-for-9

Saturday, July 18:

RHP Hiram Burgos (W, 2-1): 6 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 5 K — 3.51 ERA

RHP Jaye Chapman (S, 7): 1.1 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 2 K — 3.79 ERA

1B Jason Rogers: 1-for-2, R, 2 BB — .403 AVG

C Nevin Ashley: 1-for-4, 2 RBI — .300 AVG

Sunday, July 19:

LHP Nick Additon (W, 5-3): 5 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 2 K — 5.62 ERA

RHP David Goforth (S, 3): 2 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 0 K — 2.48 ERA

LF Matt Clark: 1-for-3, HR, R, 3 RBI, K — .259 AVG

CF Logan Schafer: 2-for-4, 2B, R — .254 AVG

Biloxi Shuckers (10-12), 3.5 GB

Friday, July 17:

RHP Johnny Hellweg: 3.2 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 5 K — 6.23 ERA

LHP Jed Bradley (L, 0-1): 1.2 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 2 K — 5.40 ERA

SS Orlando Arcia: 1-for-3, 2 RBI, 2 BB, K — .314 AVG

C Adam Weisenberger: 1-for-2, 2B, RBI, 2 BB — .241 AVG

Saturday, July 18:

RHP Tyler Wagner (L, 6-5): 6 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 9 K, 1 HR — 2.53 ERA

LHP Mike Strong: 1 IP, 1 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 HR — 2.84 ERA

2B Nathan Orf: 3-for-4, R — .271 AVG

SS Orlando Arcia: 1-for-5, 2B, RBI, 2 K, SB — .313 AVG

Sunday, July 19:

Postponed — rain

Brevard County Manatees (10-13), 5.5 GB

Friday, July 17:

RHP Tristan Archer (L, 1-4): 4 IP, 8 H, 5 ER, 4 BB, 3 K — 5.12 ERA

LHP Stephen Peterson: 3 IP, 8 H, 5 ER, 2 BB, 1 K — 3.26 ERA

CF Omar Garcia: 2-for-4, R, K — .263 AVG

1B Garrett Cooper: 1-for-4, RBI, 2 K — .277 AVG

Saturday, July 18:

RHP Javier Salas: 4 IP, 6 H, 5 ER, 2 BB, 0 K — 3.44 ERA

RHP Mark Williams: 4 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 7 K — 2.70 ERA

RHP Caleb Earls (W, 1-1): 1 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 2 K — 3.34 ERA

1B Taylor Brennan: 2-for-4, 2 2B, 2 R, 2 RBI, K — .251 AVG

LF Michael Ratterree: 1-for-3, R, 2 RB, BB, K, walk-off HBP — .170 AVG

Sunday, July 19:

RHP Jorge Ortega (L, 8-6): 6 IP, 8 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 4 K — 2.21 ERA

LHP Trevor Seidenberger: 3 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 1 K — 1.17 ERA

CF Omar Garcia: 1-for-4, K, 2 SB (34) — .262 AVG

1B Garrett Cooper: 3-for-4, 2B — .284 AVG

Wisconsin Timber Rattlers (7-16), 13.5 GB

Friday, July 17:

RHP Cody Ponce (L, 0-1): 5 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 0 BB, 4 K, 1 HR — 2.25 ERA

RHP Gian Rizzo: 2 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K — 3.48 ERA

CF Brandon Diaz: 1-for-3, 2B, R, BB — .239 AVG

SS Blake Allemand: 3-for-4 — .232 AVG

Friday, July 17 (makeup of 7/16 PPD):

RHP David Burkhalter (W, 3-5): 6 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 1 K — 4.07 ERA

RHP Luke Curtis (S, 2): 1 IP, 2 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 0 K — 3.94 ERA

DH Dustin DeMuth: 3-for-3, 2B, 2 R, RBI — .287 AVG

SS Blake Allemand: 2-for-3, R — .254 AVG

Saturday, July 18:

RHP Devin Williams: 6 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 7 K — 3.18 ERA

RHP Eric Hanhold (L, 0-1): 2 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 0 K — 9.00 ERA

CF Brandon Diaz: 2-for-4, 2B — .240 AVG

DH Carlos Leal: 1-f0r-3, 2B, R, BB — .310 AVG

Sunday, July 19:

RHP Jon Perrin: 5 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 4 K — 7.82 ERA

LHP Tyler Linehan (L, 1-4): 1 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 0 K — 6.68 ERA

LHP Luis Ortega: 2 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 1 K — 5.14 ERA

3b Sthervin Matos: 2-for-3, .206 AVG

Helena Brewers (14-15), 3 GB

Friday, July 17:

LHP Jake Drossner: 4 IP, 1 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 4 K, 1 HR — 4.15 ERA

RHP Marcos Diplan (W, 2-0): 4 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 6 K — 3.00 ERA

SS Jake Gatewood: 1-for-3, HR (3), 2 R, 2 RBI, BB — .235 AVG

DH David Denson: 3-for-4, 2 2B, R, SB (3) — .320 AVG

Saturday, July 18:

RHP Milton Gomez: 5.2 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 3 BB, 3 K — 6.10 ERA

RHP Bubba Blau (W, 2-3): 3.1 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 1 K, 1 HR — 9.95 ERA

SS Jake Gatewood: 1-for-4, R, RBI, K, 3-run walkoff HR (4) — .236 AVG

3B Jose Cuas: 1-for-3, HR(2), R, RBI — .250 AVG

Sunday, July 19:

LHP Chad Reeves: 3 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 1 K — 5.65 ERA

RHP Junior Rincon (L, 2-2; BS, 2): 0.2 IP, 5 H, 5 ER, 2 BB, 0 K — 5.23 ERA

RF Carlos Belonis: 1-for-4, HR (4), R, RBI, BB — .242 AVG

CF Monte Harrison: 2-for-4, R, SB (13) — .309 AVG

Prospect(s) of the Weekend:

This was a tough call. The results down on the farm this weekend were rather mixed. A few players stood out, such as Brevard County RHP Mark Williams, who pitched four shutout innings of relief on Saturday, surrendering two hits, striking out seven, and keeping the Manatees in the game long enough to allow for one of the strangest endings of the season: a bases-loaded, walkoff HBP, which followed a bases-loaded, game-tying HBP, and gave Brevard County a 7-6 comeback win.

The prospect-laden roster at short-season Helena also produced several candidates. RHP Marcos Diplan, profiled on this site a few weeks ago, pitched four shutout innings in relief, gave up only one hit, no runs, one walk, and struck out six. Meanwhile, SS Jake Gatewood homered twice, including a three-run walkoff blast on Saturday.

The award for Prospect(s)-of-the-Weekend, however, goes to the Colorado Springs pitching staff, which allowed only two earned runs in a weekend sweep of the New Orleans Zephyrs. In 16 combined innings, Sky Sox starters gave up only 12 hits and did not allow an earned run. Not bad for a staff with the second-worst ERA in the Pacific Coast League.

What I’ll Be Watching on Monday:

The Wisconsin Timber Rattlers continue their series with the Midwest League’s 2015 juggernaut, the Kane County Cougars, who have followed up a first-half championship with a 21-3 start to the ML’s second half. Thus far the Rattlers have held their own through two narrow defeats. Kane County will provide another tough test for a young Wisconsin team.

Alas, to the chagrin of Milwaukee fans everywhere, the 2015 version of Garza has fallen well short of that standard. Through 16 starts and one extended relief appearance (5 IP), he has managed an ERA+ of only 70 — which means he has been 30 percent worse than league-average. The Brewers seem to hemorrhage runs and hits nearly every time he’s on the mound. A 5.34 DRA (Deserved Run Average) confirms what the eye suggests: for the first time in his career, Garza has been one of the worst starting pitchers in the majors.

The most interesting questions, of course, are why Garza’s performance has declined with such suddenness, and when, or whether, the Brewers and their fans might expect a return to form. The diagnosis seems clear enough, but the remedy might be more elusive.

*****

When he debuted for the Twins in 2006, the highly-touted Garza appeared destined to join ace Johan Santana and fellow-rookie Francisco Liriano atop a dominant Minnesota rotation. Before this great triumvirate could lead the Twins into the World Series, however, Liriano suffered an elbow injury that required Tommy John surgery, and Minnesota dealt Garza to Tampa Bay. In 2008, his first season with the Rays, the 24-year-old Garza played a key role in the miraculous turnaround of that franchise, winning Games 3 and 7 of the AL Championship Series against Boston, and earning the ALCS MVP honor as the Rays made their first and only trip to the World Series. The following year saw Garza amass a 3.16 PWARP, good for 19th among all major-league starting pitchers.

Although he never again reached those heights of postseason dominance, Garza continued to enjoy success following a January 2011 trade to the Cubs (a trade that sent Chris Archer to Tampa Bay). His first season in the Windy City resulted in a 3.32 ERA (3.51 DRA), a 9.0 K/IP, and a 3.94 PWARP, all career-bests. In July 2013, the Cubs dealt free-agent-to-be Garza to Texas for a package of young players that included C.J. Edwards, who is now a top pitching prospect in the Chicago organization. That winter, Garza remained on the market until January, when the Brewers signed him to a four-year, $50 million contract with a fifth-year vesting/team option. Although he managed only a 0.95 PWARP during his first season in Milwaukee, Garza otherwise gave the Brewers more or less what they expected: 27 starts, a 3.64 ERA, and a 1.182 WHIP — which was the second-lowest of his career.

In short, while he never became an ace or even the number-two starter many expected him to be when he broke in with the Twins, Garza from year-to-year has performed like an above-average major-league starter and, with the exception of his brief stint in Texas, has provided value to every team that acquired him, including the Brewers. No one, therefore, could have predicted this train wreck of a 2015 season.

It is easy to identify the primary culprit behind Garza’s inflated numbers: the gopher ball. Through 16 starts, he has allowed 17 home runs, which have resulted in 27 of the 61 earned runs on his ledger. By contrast, in his first 16 starts of 2014, he yielded only 8 home runs for a total of 13 earned runs. This means that had Garza surrendered the same number of home runs so far in 2015 as he did through his first 16 starts of 2014, his ERA — the number by which the general public still measures pitching performance — would stand at 4.27 instead of 5.55.

Why, then, has Garza given up so many homers? A close review of each home run reveals a troubling inability to command his four-seam fastball. Of the 17 pitches opposing hitters have launched over the fences, a dozen have been four-seamers. In some respects this is an old story. Garza relied on his fastball during his meteoric rise through the Twins’ farm system in 2005-06. He still uses it more than any other pitch, and despite diminishing velocity, it remains a quality offering at 92-94 mph, though he has not always commanded it as well as one would like. (Baseball Prospectus‘s Ryan Parker identified this same problem in a fascinating scouting report from late 2013.)

More specifically, in 2015 Garza has struggled to locate his four-seam fastball in Zone 9, which is low-and-away to right-handed batters but low-and-inside to lefties. To illustrate, consider the following zone-by-zone breakdown of all his home runs allowed in 2015. Zone 9 appears near the bottom right and shows that only one of these 17 HR came on a pitched ball that crossed the plate in that precise zone. Reading from left to right, the breakdown further illustrates that in the lower third of the strike zone, Zones 7, 8, and 9, Garza has yielded 0, 2, and 1 home run, respectively:

If Garza has surrendered only one home run in Zone 9, then how could that zone constitute a problem for him? Simply stated, he missed the catcher’s target on each of these homers, and in some cases he missed badly. Of the 17 home runs Garza has allowed, the catcher twelve times had positioned his glove either in Zone 9 or slightly off the plate but still adjacent to Zone 9. The magic of PitchFX technology confirms what video replays show time after time: on each of these pitches intended for Zone 9, the catcher had to move his glove back across the plate and in most cases up in the strike zone in an attempt to catch Garza’s errant pitch. Of those twelve wayward offerings, nine were four-seam fastballs.

Individual at-bats provide compelling examples. Whether attempting to stay away from right-handed batters or bury a pitch down-and-in against lefties, Garza cannot seem to locate in Zone 9. On June 16, with the catcher set up low-and-away, Kansas City’s Lorenzo Cain, a right-handed hitter, blasted a juicy, Zone 5 Garza fastball over the left-field wall. The same thing had happened on April 19 against Pittsburgh’s Pedro Alvarez, a left-handed batter. Again, velocity was not the problem on May 5, when the Dodgers’ Justin Turner drilled a 94-mph Zone 5 fastball over the centerfield fence at Miller Park; the problem was that the catcher had set up low-and-away to the right-handed Turner.

On each of those doomed pitches Garza was behind in the count, but that wasn’t the case on June 16 when he missed up in Zone 6 on an 0-1 pitch to Kansas City’s Mike Moustakas, or on June 27 when a 1-2 fastball caught too much of Zone 8 against Minnesota’s Eduardo Escobar, or again on July 2 when 2-2 offering to Philadelphia’s Cody Asche somehow ended up in Zone 2. Even when he has been knotted or ahead in the count, therefore, Garza has struggled to command his fastball with a Zone 9 target.

Overall, pitches intended for Zone 9 (or just off the plate but adjacent to Zone 9) have accounted for more than 70 percent of the home runs Garza has allowed in 2015, and 75 percent of those pitches have been four-seam fastballs. What, then, is to be done?

Whether the issue is mechanical, psychological, or a combination of the two, I am not qualified to say. It is clear from the numbers, however, that failure to command the four-seam fastball best explains the surge in Garza’s home runs allowed, and the surge in home runs allowed best explains Garza’s inflated ERA.

Besides commanding the pitch better than he has, the seemingly obvious solution might be for Garza to rely less on the four-seamer. One day it might come to this, but for now that solution presents three problems. First, Garza already has reduced his dependence on the pitch. In 2015, he has used the pitch 42.4 percent of the time, compared to 2013 and 2014, when nearly 54 percent of his pitches were four-seamers.

Second, the numbers also show that despite inflated home-run totals Garza has not left a higher percentage of fastballs up in Zones 4-6 than he did in 2014. This season, 114 (17.2 percent) of Garza four-seamers have crossed the plate in those prime hitting zones, whereas last season 230 (17.6 percent) four-seamers found those zones. Those percentages hint at the possibility that Garza’s problem stems from bad luck. On the other hand, the zone-by-zone breakdown of Garza’s 2014 home runs allowed at least suggests that there is more to this problem than luck:

The contrast with 2015 is striking. A year ago, Garza allowed only 12 total home runs (zone breakdown shows 11 because a Todd Frazier homer from September 14 remains undocumented on Baseball Savant). Four of those home runs came on pitches that actually crossed Zone 9. On two of those four homers — May 22 vs. Atlanta’s B.J. Upton and May 27 vs. Baltimore’s Nelson Cruz, both right-handed hitters — Garza hit the catcher’s Zone 9 target. To their credit, Upton and Cruz hit these pitches over the right field fence, but they were good pitches. I hardly need add that they were four-seam fastballs.

To accentuate the contrast with 2015, consider that only three times all season did an opponent’s at-bat result in a home run because Garza missed the catcher’s Zone 9 target with his four-seamer. It is a small sample, but these numbers at least suggest the possibility that Garza in 2015 has more of a Zone 9 problem than a four-seam fastball problem.

The third and final argument against reduced four-seam usage is that Garza likes the pitch, and overall it is still a quality pitch that suits his aggressive approach. Critics might point to Garza’s diminishing whiff rate on the four-seamer, which stands today at an unimpressive 9.82 percent, which is fifth-worst in the majors among starters who have used the pitch 200 times or more. Whiff rate, however, is not always a useful metric for determining a pitch’s overall effectiveness. St. Louis’s Carlos Martinez, for instance, features a similar repertoire to Garza’s and also sports an unimpressive whiff rate (9.95 percent), but Martinez, unlike Garza, is enjoying a fine season (albeit with a 2.70 ERA that masks a 3.81 DRA).

Another possible solution could be to feature more of Garza’s secondary offerings, such as the slider and changeup. Garza has a quality slider that he used at a pretty constant rate (between 21.7 and 25.2 percent of the time) from 2011 to 2014. In 2015, however, he has thrown fewer sliders than at any time since 2010.

In 2011, when Garza surrendered only 14 home runs (compared to 25 in 2009 and 28 in 2010), he also threw his changeup a career-high 343 times, or 10.7 percent of his total pitches. Last season he threw only 24 changeups; so far this season only 37 (2.4 percent).

Most interesting of all, perhaps, is Garza’s two-seam, or sinking, fastball. As we have seen, diminished use of the four-seam fastball in 2015 has not resulted in more sliders or changeups. Instead, Garza now throws his two-seam fastball at a career-high rate of 24 percent, up from 14 percent a year ago. As yet, one can do little more than describe this phenomenon as “interesting” rather than “promising,” for the results of this increase in two-seam fastballs do not quite justify optimism.

When used to best effect, a two-seam fastball should produce a number of groundouts; Pittsburgh’s Charlie Morton, for instance, nicknamed “Ground Chuck,” has used his two-seamer on a whopping 68 percent of pitches this season. With Garza, however, there appears to be no direct correlation from-start-to-start between the volume of two-seamers thrown and the number of groundballs induced. On May 21 against the Braves, for instance, Garza threw only 16 two-seamers but somehow got nine groundballs. Five days later against the Giants, he threw 51 two-seamers but managed only six groundballs.

Nevertheless, if Brewers fans hope to see a rejuvenated Matt Garza giving up fewer home runs and making quality starts as he gets deeper into his 30s, whether or not his four-seam fastball command improves, then his two-seamer will prove useful, if not essential. In fact, one of Milwaukee’s division rivals might provide a good model of an aging-but-effective starter who improved his numbers and prolonged his career by diversifying his pitch selection: A.J. Burnett of the Pirates.

Like Garza, Burnett is an intense competitor who broke into the big leagues with a heavy fastball and high expectations that, despite a few big moments, he never seemed to fulfill. In three years with the Yankees, 2009-11, Burnett gave up a total of 81 home runs. As a 32-year-old in 2009, Burnett threw 48.4 percent four-seam fastballs but “led” the AL in walks. Like Garza, Burnett never was known for his fastball command. With the Pirates in 2015, Burnett seems like a new pitcher. He now uses his two-seamer 51,6 percent of the time and his four-seamer only 12 percent of the time, and he has surrendered only three home runs. Burnett is seven years Garza’s senior, so it is not a perfect comparison. It is evidence, nonetheless, that a pitcher as intense and aggressive as Garza can remake himself if necessary.

Finally, it might be helpful for Garza to feel comfortable. I’m not aware of any particular source of discomfort besides the physical ailment that landed him on the DL earlier this month, but he is only 31, has had a solid career as an above-average starter, and yet he is now pitching for his fifth major-league team, so I cannot imagine that he ever has felt entirely comfortable in one place. Barring unforeseen developments, he will be a Brewer at least through 2017. Perhaps that knowledge, coupled with renewed health, will enable him to relax and discover that, like A.J. Burnett, he has a good deal left in the tank.

Fastball command wouldn’t hurt either.