Top Play: This was an interesting game by WPA, as the Brewers pulled out the victory despite the Giants having the top play and the Brewers having the bottom one.

With the Brewers leading 3-2 heading into the sixth inning, manager Craig Counsell pulled Taylor Jungmann after five solid innings and turned to veteran Chris Capuano to face the top of the Giants lineup. Presumably, the hope was that the lefty would be able to get both Angel Pagan and Joe Panik, with the former being a switch-hitter who is much stronger against righties and the latter being a pure left-handed hitter. However, Capuano proved unable to do that, as Pagan tripled to lead off the inning (+.148).

The fact that this didn’t turn into a rally is a testament to Blaine Boyer, the pitcher who followed Capuano. Buster Posey was able to drive Pagan in, but the leadoff man on third with no one out could be a disaster scenario. In fact, teams in that situation average 1.3 runs per inning. However, despite a Hunter Pence single and subsequent error and an intentional walk to Brandon Belt, Boyer was able to escape with no further damage and keep the game tied.

Bottom Play: As I mentioned earlier, despite winning the game, the Brewers had the lowest WPA on any play in this game—and that play came in the half-inning following Boyer’s tightrope walk to escape.

The Brewers had an early hook on starter Taylor Jungmann, but Bruce Bochy let his new acquisition Jeff Samardzija pitch into the sixth. And after retiring Ramon Flores to lead off the inning, Samardzija was chased by back-to-back singles by Aaron Hill and Kirk Nieuwenhuis. Jonathan Villar followed with a walk against new pitcher George Kontos, which brought up Domingo Santana.

At this point in an inning—bases loaded, one out—teams in 2015 scored 1.52 runs. Just one run would have worked for the Brewers, as it would have given them the lead heading into the last third of the game. And there are many ways to drive that run in, even without getting a base hit. Santana, however, did not manage to do so, instead grounding into a double play (-.209).

Trend to Watch: As I continue to write about how Scooter Gennett doesn’t deserve a ton of playing time, he does his best to prove me wrong. Gennett went 1-3 with two walks on Wednesday, boosting his season line to .400/.538/.700.

Gennett is likely to get the lion’s share of the at bats until Orlando Arcia makes his debut, simply because the Brewers don’t have anyone else with any sort of potential they could play in his stead. However, I have gone on the record continually saying that once Arcia is ready, Gennett should be marginalized.

But if he continues to hit like this and maintains his 1.238 OPS through June, I would agree that he should get some playing time later on in the season.

Key Moment: Jeremy Jeffress was supposed to begin the season as co-closers with Will Smith, but Smith’s knee injury has forced the lefty to the disabled list and installed Jeffress as the club’s closer. He got his first save of the season on Wednesday, which bodes well for both him and the Brewers.

It doesn’t take much to establish oneself as a capital-c Closer, and a few months as the undisputed ninth-inning option would probably give Jeffress that label, especially if he is reasonably effective. Players’ careers have turned on far less, and Smith’s injury—while unfortunate for the team’s overall effectiveness—has provided Jeffress with the opportunity to seize this job, and he might not have been given that chance had Smith stayed healthy.

And from the team’s perspective, this wouldn’t be all bad news. Jeffress’s saves numbers would go up, thereby boosting his value in arbitration, but his short track record means he likely wouldn’t be excessively expensive even if he had an excellent 2016. On the field, though, this would allow the team to deploy Smith as more of a fireman than the traditional closer role allows. And because Smith is the better pitcher, being able to insert him into jams in the seventh or eighth innings would be a more effective usage.

Of course, I am getting ahead of myself a bit here. One save does not a closer make, but it is a good sign for Jeffress to lock down his first as he tries to solidify his hold on the job.

Top Play (WPA):
Brandon Crawford HR, Top of the 3^rd Inning Ties the Game at 1 (.113)
The highest play by WPA defaults to the homerun by Crawford to tie the game in the 3^rd inning. After the Brewers and Giants combined for 15 runs on Opening Day, only three scored yesterday, and those other two runs scored on a double play and a fielder’s choice. Nelson had a strong performance, but he hung a changeup to Crawford, who destroyed the pitch. As a note, the winning run of the game, which came on a Fielder’s Choice by Matt Duffy, was lower than this homerun because it came with the bases loaded.

Worst Play (WPA):
This was not the best day for the Brewers offensively. After the 4^th inning, they only got two hits (and no walks), and looked overmatched at times against Johnny Cueto. The worst play of the game according to WPA was Ryan Braun’s fly out to lead off the 9^th inning against Santiago Casilla. WPA measured that out at -.089. However, I’d say that Ramon Flores’ double play in the 2^nd was more damaging.

The offensive struggles came after two promising innings where the Brewers only scored one run. After Jonathan Lucroy and Chris Carter singled to start the 2^nd inning, Ramon Flores grounded into a double play. The run scored, but the play was worth -.058, as it ruined the potential for a big inning. Flores battled in the at-bat, running a full count, but he hit a grounder straight to Crawford, positioned up the middle, for the easy double play. Even though the run scored and gave the Brewers the lead, it was still a negative value play (-.058).

In their next crack at Cueto, the inning once again started on a promising note. Jonathan Villar doubled to lead off and Nelson executed a sacrifice bunt to get him to third base. Unfortunately, Domingo Santana swung at the first pitch and hit a sharp grounder to Crawford, who nailed Villar at the plate, with a nice tag by Buster Posey. Santana would make it to 3^rd base on Scooter Gennett’s single, but he was the last Brewers runner to make it that far for the rest of the game. Cueto then retired nine batters in a row, and the Brewers didn’t really threaten to score for the rest of the game.

Trend to Watch:
To steal Julien’s line from yesterday: “It’s the [second] game of the season, therefore, there aren’t many trends to note.” However, Nelson’s strong performance deserves extra kudos. Nelson took a big step forward last year, making 30 starts with a 3.89 DRA and 2.4 WARP. While the Brewers aren’t expecting to contend this year, someone has to soak up some innings at an adequate level. Therefore, the results last night were encouraging. Nelson went into the 8^th inning against a quality lineup and held his own. Aside from Crawford’s bomb, Nelson looked good. Sure, the defensive miscue on Pence’s grounder in the 4^th led to the winning run scoring, but I think if everyone knew Nelson’s final line going into the game, most would have been happy and even expected a Brewers win.

Up Next:
An afternoon matinee to close out the series against San Francisco. Taylor Jungmann makes his 2016 debut and will face Jeff Samardzijia in his first game in a Giants uniform. We all know this is going to be a long season if you’re paying attention to the results, but it would be nice to get a win in the first series of the season.

TOP PLAY (WPA): After Carlos Torres opted out of his minor-league deal with the Braves, the Brewers signed him to a big league deal. That decision proved costly, at least in the home opener.

After the Brewers got off to an early lead, the Giants came back and took a 5-3 lead going into the fifth. That’s when Wily Peralta was removed from the game, and replaced by newly-signed Carlos Torres. Torres got two quick outs but then walked Brandon Belt.

The following batter was Matt Duffy. Torres fell behind early in the count, after throwing two straight balls. Duffy then took a strike and with a 2-1 count with 2 outs in the fifth, he hit an up and in fastball deep to extend the lead. At 7-3, the game was pretty much out of reach and the Brewers were unable to come back.

Worst Play (WPA): The Brewers got off to a strong start. Wily Peralta, got the nod for opening day, and got a quick 1-2-3 first inning, helped by this Aaron Hill diving play:

In the bottom of the first, Madison Bumgarner was in unusual bad form. He was battling the flu, which may have ignited his poor, early start. Santana lead off the game with a quick single. Three out of the four next batters were able to draw walks, which put the Brewers up 1-0 with one out and the bases loaded. Hill, who was acquired earlier in the offseason, then came to the plate. After taking the first strike, he grounded into an inning-ending double play, killing the rally.

Trend to keep watching: It’s the first game of the season, therefore, there aren’t many trends to note, but one thought-provoking part of this game was Domingo Santana leading off.

Santana isn’t your typical leadoff hitter. He’s not the quickest player on the team, nor is he a prolific base stealer. In his short stint in the majors, he’s walked at an above average clip, but he doesn’t make a ton of contact and he strikes out a ton (33.7 K%). His on-base percentage last year was pretty good and has been solid throughout the minors, which is a positive but it’s unusual to see someone who strikes out that often at the leadoff spot.

Derek Harvey, managing editor of the Brew Crew Ball, noted that this might be the lineup versus left handed pitchers, but then again, why would you have Scooter Gennett in there instead of Colin Walsh. On the other hand, this could just be a situation of Craig Counsell playing his “main starters” on opening day. Either way, Santana seems to be one of the main starters, on the Brewers. He also crushed lefties last year and got on base at a decent clip which might be provoking Counsel’s choice of having him in the leadoff position. It’ll just be interesting to see whether this lineup changes against right-handed pitchers, and how he decides to use Santana considering his platoon splits.

Gennett and Villar:

“Villar! Hill! Broxton! Gennett! Your 2016 opening-day Brewers who wouldn’t be recognized in a community grocery store,” said Jeff Sullivan in a FanGraphs chat.

It’s true that both Jonathan Villar and Scooter Gennett aren’t household names. If you’re not a Brewers fan or a die hard baseball fan, then you probably aren’t familiar with these players. With that said, they both did interesting thing’s in this game.

First, Gennett hit an absolute shot.

Scooter Gennett's bomb clocked at 108.5 MPH off the bat… He didn't hit a ball that hard all last year. His hardest last year 103.64 MPH

— Daren Willman (@darenw) April 4, 2016

The interesting part about this home run is that Gennett didn’t hit a single home run against lefties, in 2015. In fact, he’s never hit a single home run against any lefty in his big league career. At least, until this one.

This very well might have been a fluke, but’s it’s interesting that Gennett got the nod against MadBum even though he’s been awful throughout his career against left-handed pitchers. It’ll be interesting to see if he’s made an adjustment in his game, and will provide more sustained production against left-handed pitchers. If that’s the case, then the Brewers have found their second baseman of the future, even though this outcome is still very unlikely.

Villar also had a nice moment.

In 2015, Villar only hit two home runs. In 2016, he’s already got one. Villar is obviously just a placeholder for Orlando Arcia, but if he’s able to hit for more power than usual, then he should get more playing time once Arcia makes his debut.

UP Next:

The Brewer are playing again tomorrow against the Giants. This time, they’ll have Jimmy Nelson on the mound facing Johnny Cueto.

The Brewers got their heads beaten in today, but they still remain an interesting team. There’s a lot of potential and young players who are ready to prove their worth. Try to find solace and joy in their performance. Joy in the little things, and don’t get too upset at the final score, because if you do, then this will be a long season.

If anything, it’s nice to have baseball back.