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	<title>Milwaukee &#187; 2017 Brewers minor leagues</title>
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		<title>The Quiet Upside of Tyler Webb</title>
		<link>http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/01/02/the-quiet-upside-of-tyler-webb/</link>
		<comments>http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/01/02/the-quiet-upside-of-tyler-webb/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 02 Jan 2018 13:24:38 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Noah Nofz]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[2017 Brewers analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[2017 Brewers minor leagues]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[2018 Brewers analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Brewers analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tyler Webb]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=10878</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[As the 2017 All-Star break wound down on the morning of July 13, the insurgent Milwaukee Brewers ruled the NL Central by 5.5 games. Against expectations, the Brewers were in a position to buy at the deadline, and had already been linked to a handful of top pitching targets. That very day, the Cubs went [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>As the 2017 All-Star break wound down on the morning of July 13, the insurgent Milwaukee Brewers ruled the NL Central by 5.5 games. Against expectations, the Brewers were in a position to buy at the deadline, and had already been linked to a handful of top pitching targets.</p>
<p>That very day, the Cubs went out and got the biggest target of all. Jose Quintana made his way to the north side in an unexpected deal that pried some of the last remaining jewels from what was recently one of the top farm systems in baseball. Disinterested in <a href="https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/09/rosenthals-latest-phillies-marlins-brewers-padres.html">losing Josh Hader</a> to land Quintana, Brewers GM David Stearns set his sights significantly lower and zeroed in on another left-handed pitcher, whom he then acquired hours after Quintana crossed town. The terms of the deal were these: In exchange for 26-year-old minor league first baseman Garrett Cooper, the Brewers received 26-year-old Yankee reliever Tyler Webb, who had tallied all of six innings at the major league level.</p>
<p>On the surface, this was a swap of AAA over-performers who were buried on their respective depth charts. Webb had set the pitcher-friendly International League ablaze with a 1.38 DRA in 33.3 innings for the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders; Cooper was riding a .329 TAv in the hitter-friendly PCL for Colorado Springs. The Yankees had a glaring need at first base and a vaunted bullpen. Half of the Brewers’ opening day relief corps (Neftali Feliz, Tommy Milone, Jhan Marinez, and Taylor Jungmann) had already pitched their way out of town and the Thames/Aguilar timeshare at first was in full, powerful swing. Both teams likely hoped to catch lightning in a bottle and wring some productivity out of a pair of players from the fringe.</p>
<p>From Cooper, the Yankees received 45 plate appearances of .326/.333/.488 ball that translated to a .276 TAv and all of 0.1 WARP. Cooper was later traded (along with five-minute-Brewer Caleb Smith of the <a href="https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/12/brewers-trade-caleb-smith-to-cubs.html">2016 Rule 5 Draft</a>) to the Miami Marlins in exchange for international slot money and a low-level pitching prospect.</p>
<p>The Brewers, whose position in the standings started to slide as soon as the second half opened, let Webb into just two big league games. He gave up three hits and a run in each of these.</p>
<p>Early returns suggest that this could be the sort of deal with such imperceptible effects on the franchises involved that nobody will ever remember it happening. Webb offers the Brewers a chance for something more, though. Gaze beyond his shaky eight-inning sample of big league work, and he looks the part of a serviceable bullpen piece.</p>
<p>Webb relies on a four seam fastball to set the table, opting to let it rip for two pitches out of every three. It’s a competent offering, featuring decent rise and middling run. Webb’s command of his fastball is average. Lots of things about Webb are average. The heater zips in around 90-92 mph, with a Statcast-measured average perceived velocity of 91.82 mph. That puts Webb squarely in the middle of the pack among lefties.</p>
<p>There are two secondary pitches in Webb’s arsenal. The first is a 82 mph slider that the six-foot-five lefty threw once for every five of his big league pitches. It, too, is an average pitch. But Webb starts to separate himself with his changeup, which didn’t show well during his 2017 cup of coffee but has been known to dominate hitters in the upper minors. The change dives to the plate at around 81 mph, and in theory gives Webb a tool that could allow him to retire right-handed batters and move beyond a specialist role.</p>
<p>It’s nice to watch Webb throw. He has fluid arm action and repeats his delivery well, unleashing all three of his pitches from the same slot and release point. In the major leagues, Webb induced grounders on 43.5 percent of his balls allowed in play. But his minor league work was stronger, including a 57.1% mark in the thin air of Colorado Springs. He also knows how to miss bats, fanning eight in eight innings in the bigs and 11.2 per every nine innings of minor league work. He may not replicate his 4.45 K:BB ratio in the minors, but it’s not hard to imagine that number settling into the mid-3s with more major league experience.</p>
<p>Here’s Webb with the Yankees, jamming Domingo Santana with an inside fastball the week before his trade:<br />
<a href="http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/6/2018/01/Webb-Santana.gif"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-10881" src="http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/6/2018/01/Webb-Santana.gif" alt="Webb-Santana" width="480" height="240" /></a></p>
<p>And here he is in the 2015 Grapefruit League, changing speeds for an emphatic K:<br />
<a href="http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/6/2018/01/Webb-K.gif"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-10882" src="http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/6/2018/01/Webb-K.gif" alt="Webb K" width="480" height="251" /></a></p>
<p>The profile is intriguing enough that Webb was selected by the Pittsburgh Pirates in the 2016 Rule 5 Draft. Though he was eventually returned to New York, he still has two minor league options and a good chance to produce some surplus value towards the back of the major league bullpen. He’ll battle fellow former Rule 5 pick Wei-Chung Wang for a lefty specialist spot in spring training, and will likely accumulate frequent flyer miles between Milwaukee and Colorado next season. By the end of 2018, he could carve out a steady role retiring lefties or pitching in low-to-mid-leverage innings. Not a bad return for 45 plate appearances of Garrett Cooper.</p>
<hr />
<p>Photo Credit: Benny Sieu, USAToday Sports Images</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>Do the Brewers Need to Trade?</title>
		<link>http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/12/24/do-the-brewers-need-to-trade/</link>
		<comments>http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/12/24/do-the-brewers-need-to-trade/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 24 Dec 2017 23:31:25 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Nicholas Zettel]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[2017 Brewers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[2017 Brewers minor leagues]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[2018 Brewers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[2018 Brewers minor leagues]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Brewers top prospects]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=10828</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The Brewers front office has assembled an almost methodically slow offseason thus far, with the biggest move of acquiring righty Jhoulys Chacin a sign that the club is seemingly ready to test this audacious gang of chumps for yet another season of improbable winning baseball. Naturally, the lack of &#8220;impact&#8221; signature moves has heightened debate [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The Brewers front office has assembled an almost methodically slow offseason thus far, with the biggest move of acquiring righty Jhoulys Chacin a sign that the club is seemingly ready to test this <a href="http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/05/19/an-ode-to-chumps/">audacious gang of chumps</a> for yet another season of improbable winning baseball. Naturally, the lack of &#8220;impact&#8221; signature moves has heightened debate among Brewers fans and analysts about the direction of the franchise. As <a href="http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/12/22/improving-on-good-is-hard/">Paul Noonan effectively stated at BPMilwaukee</a>, the club is reaching a point where it can be difficult to take the next step to improve, since the next step for this roster means improving beyond the good baseline established by 2017. Additionally, the end of the rebuild is naturally problematic, as there is no easily-cited &#8220;identity&#8221; for developing players to their full potential at the MLB level; there is no easy &#8220;Trust the Process&#8221; tagline for developing players at the MLB level, as there is no easy path between potential and actual production in the vast majority of prospect cases. This is compounded with such a high risk talent group as the one procured by the Brewers: several of these prospects could indeed be stars one day, but they might overstay their welcome in Milwaukee before reaching that status. So, the &#8220;what&#8217;s next?&#8221; for Milwaukee is confusing to label, as it&#8217;s not as easy or as comforting as the &#8220;Rebuilding&#8221; moniker (&#8220;just trade the MLB contracts for prospects!&#8221;).</p>
<p>Working with the current roster, the Brewers will once again compete in 2018 with stunning depth, complete with a rotation that looks better suited to planting dreams of dingers in batters&#8217; heads, rather than striking fear. This very systematic approach worked in 2017 by using a series of pitching adjustments and strategies, and now the club has doubled down on potential low rotation depth in a manner that should push some fringe arms into more effective bullpen roles. If the Gallardo signing was poised to <a href="http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/12/18/low-rotation-shift/">potentially improve the fifth rotation spot</a> by approximately 10 runs (in a best case scenario), adding veteran Jhoulys Chacin features some runs prevented upside (Chacin prevented six runs in 2017, and was a fantastic starter in earlier days with the Colorado Rockies) that makes him even more attractive as innings-eating depth for the club. Here&#8217;s one potential pitching staff alignment (based on 2017 roles):</p>
<table border="" width="" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr bgcolor="#EDF1F3">
<th align="center">Player</th>
<th align="center">Position</th>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">RHP Chase Anderson</td>
<td align="center">SP</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">RHP Zach Davies</td>
<td align="center">SP</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">RHP Brandon Woodruff</td>
<td align="center">SP</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">RHP Jhoulys Chacin</td>
<td align="center">SP/RP</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">RHP Yovani Gallardo</td>
<td align="center">SP/RP</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">RHP Junior Guerra</td>
<td align="center">SP/RP</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">LHP Josh Hader</td>
<td align="center">RP/SP</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">LHP Brent Suter</td>
<td align="center">RP/SP</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">RHP Jacob Barnes</td>
<td align="center">RP</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">RHP Oliver Drake</td>
<td align="center">RP</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">RHP Jeremy Jeffress</td>
<td align="center">RP</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">RHP Corey Knebel</td>
<td align="center">RP</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">RHP Taylor Williams</td>
<td align="center">RP</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">LHP Boone Logan</td>
<td align="center">???</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">RHP Marcos Diplan</td>
<td align="center">minors</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">RHP Adrian Houser</td>
<td align="center">minors</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">RHP Taylor Jungmann</td>
<td align="center">minors</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">RHP Jorge Lopez</td>
<td align="center">minors</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">RHP Freddy Peralta</td>
<td align="center">minors</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">LHP Wei-Chung Wang</td>
<td align="center">minors</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">LHP Tyler Webb</td>
<td align="center">minors</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">RHP Aaron Wilkerson</td>
<td align="center">minors</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">RHP Jimmy Nelson</td>
<td align="center">injured</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>The club&#8217;s batting moves thus far are nearly head-scratching in their assemblage of talent that essentially blocks Lewis Brinson and Brett Phillips from starting CF or impact OF depth roles at the MLB level. As constructed, the current roster sends Brinson and Phillips to Triple-A as &#8220;next man up&#8221; depth. For this reason, it would not be surprising to see some combination Stephen Vogt, Hernan Perez, Jonathan Villar, or Keon Broxton fail to make the club from Spring Training.</p>
<table border="" width="" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr bgcolor="#EDF1F3">
<th align="center">Player</th>
<th align="center">Position</th>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">RHB Manny Pina</td>
<td align="center">C</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">LHB Stephen Vogt</td>
<td align="center">C</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">LHB Eric Thames</td>
<td align="center">1B/OF</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">RHB Jesus Aguilar</td>
<td align="center">1B/PH</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">LHB Eric Sogard</td>
<td align="center">IF</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">SWT Jonathan Villar</td>
<td align="center">IF</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">LHB Travis Shaw</td>
<td align="center">3B</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">RHB Orlando Arcia</td>
<td align="center">SS</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">RHB Ryan Braun</td>
<td align="center">LF</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">RHB Keon Broxton</td>
<td align="center">CF</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">RHB Domingo Santana</td>
<td align="center">RF</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">RHB Hernan Perez</td>
<td align="center">UTIL</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">RHB Jett Bandy</td>
<td align="center">minors</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">RHB Jacob Nottingham</td>
<td align="center">minors</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">RHB Andrew Susac</td>
<td align="center">minors</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">RHB Mauricio Dubon</td>
<td align="center">minors</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">RHB Lewis Brinson</td>
<td align="center">minors</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">LHB Brett Phillips</td>
<td align="center">minors</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>There&#8217;s something underwhelming about this roster outside of cheering for the upside plays. Getting Jonathan Villar another chance to hit on the tools and disciplined approach that created his breakout 2016 campaign could be extremely worthwhile to the Brewers longterm contending chances, as could getting Junior Guerra to continue his winter ball success at the MLB level to rebound in 2018 (<a href="http://mlb.mlb.com/milb/stats/org.jsp?id=mil">Guerra has allowed 19 runs</a> on 40 hits and 17 walks, with 30 strike outs, in 48.3 winter innings). Watching Brinson, Phillips, Josh Hader, and Brandon Woodruff further develop MLB roles will also be worthwhile. Yet, what&#8217;s interesting is the number of singular players on the roster; according to Baseball Reference Play Index, there is no position player in the MLB Expansion Era that has combined Keon Broxton&#8217;s extreme plate approach through 700 career plate appearances; the only other Expansion Era catcher to play his rookie season at age-30 while amassing 300 PA is Kenji Johjima; Hernan Perez is the <a href="http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/07/25/what-is-hernans-value/">youngest effective superutility player in Expansion Era history</a>. GM David Stearns may be validated by giving these players another chance to prove themselves in 2018, despite all common sense and MLB history saying &#8220;these are not typical MLB contributors.&#8221; In fact, drawing on these unorthodox talents may be one way to help bolster the roster around the top prospects.</p>
<p>One of the raging debates is when, or how, the Brewers should trade prospects in order to acquire MLB-ready producers to enhance their roster. An interesting take on this debate is that even if the Brewers do not trade their very best prospect (Lewis Brinson), they could use their future 2018 Rule 5 draft depth to form trades and beat a roster crunch. BrewersFarm assembled one such list of this Rule 5 roster crunch on Twitter, and at first glance it looks quite daunting.</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
<p dir="ltr" lang="en">Sure. But all of these guys will need to be on 40-man by next winter or risk being taken in Rule 5. Dealing from prospect depth is gonna be darn near a necessary at some point. There’s probably 15 or so guys that will probably need to be added. <a href="https://t.co/RqJ4iGnxBb">pic.twitter.com/RqJ4iGnxBb</a></p>
<p>— Brewers Farm (@BrewersFarm) <a href="https://twitter.com/BrewersFarm/status/943587951824515072?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 20, 2017</a></p></blockquote>
<p>Alongside top prospects such as Monte Harrison and Isan Diaz, obvious Rule 5 protections, stand a group of potential pop-up pitchers for 2018 (Josh Pennington, Carlos Herrera, and Trey Supak), alongside additional useful depth that can use 2018 to take their next steps to the MLB (here Troy Stokes, Luis Ortiz, and Cody Ponce might come to mind). How many of these players should be protected? Here&#8217;s one potential short list of &#8220;interesting&#8221; 2018 Rule 5 guys:</p>
<table border="" width="" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr bgcolor="#EDF1F3">
<th align="center">Player</th>
<th align="center">Position</th>
<th align="center">2017</th>
<th align="center">2018 Outlook?</th>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">Carlos Herrera</td>
<td align="center">RHP</td>
<td align="center">A (38.0 IP)</td>
<td align="center">Needs to take next step to full season ball.</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">Jon Olczak</td>
<td align="center">RHP</td>
<td align="center">A+ (20.0 IP)</td>
<td align="center">Potential late round relief depth.</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">Luis Ortiz</td>
<td align="center">RHP</td>
<td align="center">AA (94.3 IP)</td>
<td align="center">Needs to reach a starter&#8217;s workload.</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">Josh Pennington</td>
<td align="center">RHP</td>
<td align="center">A (30.3 IP)</td>
<td align="center">Pop-up pitcher potential?</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">Jon Perrin</td>
<td align="center">RHP</td>
<td align="center">AA (105.3 IP)</td>
<td align="center">Advanced pitching depth.</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">Cody Ponce</td>
<td align="center">RHP</td>
<td align="center">AA (17.7 IP)</td>
<td align="center">Advanced pitching depth.</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">Trey Supak</td>
<td align="center">RHP</td>
<td align="center">A+ (72.3 IP)</td>
<td align="center">Pop-up pitcher potential?</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">Jordan Yamamoto</td>
<td align="center">RHP</td>
<td align="center">A+ (111.0 IP)</td>
<td align="center">Sneaky rotation depth.</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">Nate Kirby</td>
<td align="center">LHP</td>
<td align="center">DNP</td>
<td align="center">Will he pitch?</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">Quintin Torres-Costa</td>
<td align="center">LHP</td>
<td align="center">AA (20.7 IP)</td>
<td align="center">Potential late round relief depth.</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">Isan Diaz</td>
<td align="center">IF</td>
<td align="center">A+ (455 PA)</td>
<td align="center">Next step needed in advanced minors</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">Jake Gatewood</td>
<td align="center">IF</td>
<td align="center">AA (100 PA)</td>
<td align="center">Next step needed in advanced minors</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">Monte Harrison</td>
<td align="center">OF</td>
<td align="center">A+ (252 PA)</td>
<td align="center">Next step needed in advanced minors</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">Troy Stokes</td>
<td align="center">OF</td>
<td align="center">AA (153 PA)</td>
<td align="center">Outfield depth</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>The argument goes something like this: since the Brewers will have a roster crunch pending after 2018 with these players, they can use some of these players to headline trades to compete in 2018. This is obviously most attractive in the case of players like Monte Harrison and Luis Ortiz, who have solid potential roles that outweigh much of their risk.  Harrison and Ortiz would be the types of prospects that could probably help to construct an impact MLB trade. But otherwise, the trouble with this group of players is that they have largely failed to come into focus yet; it&#8217;s difficult to look at Carlos Herrera, Josh Pennington, or even Trey Supak as anything more than throw-ins right now. 2018 will be as crucial for them in terms of developing in the minor leagues as the year will be for establishing MLB roles for Brinson, Phillips, and Woodruff.</p>
<p>For all the strengths of the roster&#8217;s depth, a waltz through the current Brewers 40-man roster (and the rumored signing of Boone Logan) shows a sizable group of players that either have contracts expiring, easy contracts to drop, non-tender options, etc. If the Brewers need to find room for even eight or ten Rule 5 protections (in the most extreme case, perhaps), the front office should easily be able to find room for them on the roster:</p>
<table border="" width="" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr bgcolor="#EDF1F3">
<th align="center">Player</th>
<th align="center">Position</th>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">RHP Jhoulys Chacin</td>
<td align="center">SP/RP</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">RHP Yovani Gallardo</td>
<td align="center">SP/RP</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">RHP Junior Guerra</td>
<td align="center">SP/RP</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">RHP Oliver Drake</td>
<td align="center">RP</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">RHP Jeremy Jeffress</td>
<td align="center">RP</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">LHP Boone Logan</td>
<td align="center">???</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">RHP Adrian Houser</td>
<td align="center">minors</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">RHP Taylor Jungmann</td>
<td align="center">minors</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">RHP Jorge Lopez</td>
<td align="center">minors</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">LHP Wei-Chung Wang</td>
<td align="center">minors</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">LHP Tyler Webb</td>
<td align="center">minors</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">RHP Aaron Wilkerson</td>
<td align="center">minors</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">RHP Jimmy Nelson</td>
<td align="center">injured</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">LHB Stephen Vogt</td>
<td align="center">C</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">LHB Eric Thames</td>
<td align="center">1B/OF</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">RHB Jesus Aguilar</td>
<td align="center">1B/PH</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">LHB Eric Sogard</td>
<td align="center">IF</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">SWT Jonathan Villar</td>
<td align="center">IF</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">RHB Keon Broxton</td>
<td align="center">CF</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">RHB Hernan Perez</td>
<td align="center">UTIL</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">RHB Jett Bandy</td>
<td align="center">minors</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">RHB Jacob Nottingham</td>
<td align="center">minors</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">RHB Andrew Susac</td>
<td align="center">minors</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">RHB Mauricio Dubon</td>
<td align="center">minors</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>One potential issue with shifting such depth from MLB-tested players to such a large number of prospects is that the 2019 club will simply encounter the same types of issues that the 2018 club faces: namely, finding playing time for prospects while they develop at the MLB level, and facing the uncertainty of developing MLB players in the midst of designing an otherwise competitive club. Yet, this type of strategy solidifies the sense that this Brewers team may actually win <em>through</em> depth, or <em>because</em> of their depth, rather than relying on one star to emerge from this pack of prospects. The only questions that remain concern the types of MLB deals that can be had with this next group of prospects, and how the players at the fringes of the 2018 MLB roster perform during the season. Unlike the relative strategic ease of rebuilding, there are no right answers in 2018 and 2019. How many paths to winning may the club follow?</p>
<hr />
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>Photo Credit: Dale Zanine, USAToday Sports Images</p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>Better Know A Rafter: Quintin Torres-Costa</title>
		<link>http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/10/10/better-know-a-rafter-quintin-torres-costa/</link>
		<comments>http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/10/10/better-know-a-rafter-quintin-torres-costa/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 10 Oct 2017 13:25:12 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Noah Nofz]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[2017 Brewers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[2017 Brewers minor leagues]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[2017 Brewers prospects]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Brewers prospect analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Brewers top prospects]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jordan Yamamoto]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Kodi Medeiros]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Quintin Torres-Costa]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=10317</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Game action in the 2017 Arizona Fall League starts this afternoon, offering baseball fans the nation over a welcome respite from those boring, Brewer-less playoffs. Milwaukee’s sending a good crop this year, headlined by a quartet of young hitters. It will be fascinating to see what Corey Ray, Monte Harrison, Jake Gatewood, and Lucas Erceg [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Game action in the 2017 Arizona Fall League starts this afternoon, offering baseball fans the nation over a welcome respite from those boring, Brewer-less playoffs. Milwaukee’s sending a good crop this year, headlined by a quartet of young hitters. It will be fascinating to see what Corey Ray, Monte Harrison, Jake Gatewood, and Lucas Erceg make of the prospect-rich competition.</p>
<p>And then there are the pitchers. For reasons of workload or simple organizational cageyness, the Brewers rarely tend to send top pitching prospects to the AFL, with Josh Hader’s star turn in 2015 being a notable recent exception. Often, this means that the players chosen to represent Milwaukee tend to have strict relief profiles. That’s not to say those pitchers cannot be valuable to the organization; for example, Jacob Barnes represented the Brewers in the 2015 fall league, and 2016 AFL alum Tayler Scott was sent to the Rangers in exchange for Jeremy Jeffress at this year’s trade deadline. Do a little digging, and there’s always something interesting about AFL prospects.</p>
<p>This year, the pitcher of most interest is <a href="http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/10/06/adrian-houser-returns/">the rehabbing Adrian Houser</a>, making his second career tour of the AFL following a productive stint in 2015. Jon Perrin joins Houser as another arm with <a href="http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/09/26/the-quiet-ascendance-of-jon-perrin/">viable big-league potential</a>. Beyond that pair, Carolina Mudcats closer Nate Griep will look to build on a season that saw him record 30 saves in 33 chances, albeit with a bloated 4.62 DRA and 4.4 walks per nine innings.</p>
<p>That leaves lefty Quintin Torres-Costa as the final baby Brewer in Scottsdale. Milwaukee grabbed the 5’11” hurler in the 35th round of the 2015 draft after Tommy John surgery derailed his stock during his freshman year at University of Hawaii at Manoa. He’s spent the two-and-a-half seasons since his draft day outperforming that position.</p>
<p>For most of the 2017 season, Torres-Costa served as one third of Carolina’s three-headed Hawaiian pitching prospect monster, alongside 2014 draftees Kodi Medeiros (first round) and Jordan Yamamoto (12th round). Yamamoto had the best overall season, and Medeiros took the biggest step forward, trimming his walk rate from 6.7 to 3.7 per nine innings and adding back some of his missing strikeouts. But of the three, Torres-Costa proved the most difficult to hit. In 23 outings spanning 45.3 innings, he racked up an impressive 66 strikeouts against a respectable 15 walks. His 3.77 ERA was impressive enough, but DRA credits Torres-Costa with a mark of 3.12, nearly identical to his 3.10 FIP.</p>
<p>In mid-July, Torres-Costa leapfrogged his fellow islanders and earned a promotion to Class-AA Biloxi. He struggled at the higher level, losing his feel for the strike zone as he walked 17 men in 20.7 innings. The strikeouts stuck around, though. Even in Biloxi, Torres-Costa fanned 10.9 batters per nine. All those whiffs contributed to an optimistic FIP of 3.93, belying his bloated 5.71 DRA. If he rediscovers his command next season, he has the tools to make mincemeat of Southern League batters.</p>
<p>Torres-Costa deploys a low-90s fastball from a 3/4 arm slot. It’s a solid enough offering, but errant command can lead it to run over the heart of the plate, where it’s been punished with hard contact at times. He’ll throw an occasional cutter to offset the fastball, and has the makings of an above-average changeup. Torres-Costa doesn’t have the smoothest mechanics. Using a funky cross-body motion, he twists his back slightly towards the batter before firing home. That could spell trouble for his future command, but he could be a solid lefty specialist at the least if he irons out the kinks in his delivery.</p>
<p>Among Torres-Costa, Medeiros, and Yamamoto, the Brewers could enjoy an influx of Hawaiian arms fortifying their bullpen in the seasons to come. Medeiros and Torres-Costa have plenty of experience locking down the opposition in tandem; the two were high school teammates and combined to pitch a no-hitter in 2012. And although he’s the oldest, least known, and lowest-drafted of the three, Torres-Costa may be the first to make landfall in the big league ‘pen. Here’s hoping for an AFL campaign that’s high on whiffs and low on walks.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>Meet Thomas Jankins</title>
		<link>http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/08/25/meet-thomas-jankins/</link>
		<comments>http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/08/25/meet-thomas-jankins/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 25 Aug 2017 11:49:10 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Kyle Lesniewski]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[2017 Brewers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[2017 Brewers analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[2017 Brewers minor leagues]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[2017 Brewers top prospects]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Brandon Woodruff]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Brent Suter]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Brewers prospect analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Brewers prospects]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Cameron Roegner]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jon Perrin]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Quintin Torres-Costa]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Thomas Jankins]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=9923</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The minor league regular season will be coming to a close within the next two weeks, and three out of the four full-season teams that are associated with the Milwaukee Brewers are still legitimately competing for a playoff spot. The Class-AAA Colorado Springs Sky Sox have a 9.0 game divisional lead and look like a [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The minor league regular season will be coming to a close within the next two weeks, and three out of the four full-season teams that are associated with the Milwaukee Brewers are still legitimately competing for a playoff spot. The Class-AAA Colorado Springs Sky Sox have a 9.0 game divisional lead and look like a good bet to go on to the postseason, while Class-AA Biloxi is 3.5 games out, and Class-Advanced A Carolina is 6.5 games behind thanks to a rough August so far.</p>
<p>The one full-season club that hasn&#8217;t made much noise all season long is the lower A ball club, Class-A Wisconsin Timber Rattlers. The T-Rats sit at a lowly 53-75 even after last night&#8217;s 4-3 win over Peoria, which places them as the 2nd-worst team among the 16 squads that comprise the Midwest League. Their struggles have come on both sides of the ball, as Wisconsin owns the worst collective OPS in the league (.644) as well as the 3rd-worst earned run average (4.45).</p>
<p>It hasn&#8217;t been all disappointment for Wisconsin this season, however. A few of the prospects on the roster have stood out this season, including one of the top performing pitchers in the Midwest League this season.</p>
<p>Thomas Jankins was selected by the Milwaukee Brewers in the 13th round of the 2016 MLB Draft out of Quinnipiac University in Connecticut, a school known more for its prominent polling institute than for its athletic programs. Jankins was the third-highest selection from the school since the draft moved to June in 1986; the university has sent only one alumnus &#8211; longtime reliever Turk Wendell &#8211; all the way to the major leagues. If early indications mean anything, however, Jankins may be well on his way to joining Wendell by appearing in the big leagues someday.</p>
<p>After inking for a $100,000 bonus, Jankins hit the ground running as a professional. He began his career in Helena, as collegiate signees often do after the draft. In four games with the Brewers, the righty allowed four runs in 11.7 innings, but a nifty 14:2 K/BB ratio helped prompt a bump up to Wisconsin to finish out 2016. He made eight appearances down the stretch for the Timber Rattlers last season, compiling a 3.20 ERA/3.51 DRA with 21 strikeouts and 6 walks in 25.3 innings pitched.</p>
<p>Assigned back to Wisconsin for his age-21 season in 2017, Jankins has shone for the Timber Rattlers throughout the year. He&#8217;s been a model of consistency and durability, making 25 appearances and pitching a league-leading 131.7 innings. Jankins&#8217;s 3.76 ERA is easily better than the league average of 3.94, but even that doesn&#8217;t accurately depict how well he&#8217;s pitched this season. His 2.76 Deserved Run Average translates to a DRA- of 60.5, or 39.5 percent better than the Midwest League average. That means he&#8217;s been one of the most effective starters on the circuit in 2017.</p>
<p>Jankins possesses a starter&#8217;s build at 6&#8217;3&#8243; tall and 200 lbs, and creates quite a difficult downward plane for hitters by coming from a high three-quarters arm slot, nearly over the top. He uses this angle to help generate plenty of ground balls, which he&#8217;s induced at a 56 percent rate this season. According to a pre-draft report from Baseball America, on a good night Jankins was sitting in the 89-92 MPH range with his fastball coming out of Quinnipiac, and could touch 93 MPH at times. BA praised his fastball for having above-average sink and noted that he&#8217;d shown flashes with both a curveball and changeup. Because of his lack of exposure to high-level coaching, Jankins was viewed as &#8220;projectable&#8221; by many scouts when he was coming out.</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-video">
<p dir="ltr" lang="en">Thomas Jankins 6 K&#8217;s <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/TRats?src=hash">#TRats</a> <a href="https://t.co/pKDS4UdpnC">pic.twitter.com/pKDS4UdpnC</a></p>
<p>— Brewers Prospects (@BrewerProspect) <a href="https://twitter.com/BrewerProspect/status/888813755529822209">July 22, 2017</a></p></blockquote>
<p>The Brewers were obviously intrigued by what they saw in Jankins, and things have been working out quite well thus far. His stuff doesn&#8217;t jump off the board, but Jankins produces quality outing after quality outing by keeping the ball on the ground and limiting free passes &#8211; he&#8217;s walked just 5.4 percent of the hitters he&#8217;s faced this season, and his 2.1 BB/9 ranks 8th-best among Midwest League arms that have thrown at least 100 innings. He can miss a bat or two as well with a 20.3 percent strikeout rate this season, though his 7.6 K/9 does sit just below the league average. Jankins has been pitching especially well of late; he&#8217;s posted a 2.29 ERA over his last 63.0 innings and was Wisconsin&#8217;s pitcher of the month for July.</p>
<p>The Milwaukee Brewers have had some notable successes with popping collegiate arms in the later arms of the MLB Draft in recent years. Jacob Barnes (14th round, 2011), Brent Suter (31st round, 2012), and Brandon Woodruff (11th round, 2014) have all played roles on the big league club this season. In the minors, meanwhile, Jon Perrin (27th round, 2015) and Quintin Torres-Costa (35th round, 2015) have already shot through the system up to Class-AA this season, and both Jankins and Cameron Roegner (22nd round, 2016) are having success in Wisconsin.</p>
<p>It just goes to show that every pick matters in the MLB Draft. Even in the later rounds, an org can find future setup men (Barnes), swingmen/back end starters (Suter), or even a top pitching prospect if things go well developmentally (Woodruff). Time will tell if Thomas Jankins falls into one of those categories, but based off his physical and statistical profile, he&#8217;s certainly a player to keep an eye on going forward.</p>
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		<title>Minor League Context: May 24</title>
		<link>http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/05/24/minor-league-context-may-24/</link>
		<comments>http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/05/24/minor-league-context-may-24/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 24 May 2017 12:16:23 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Nicholas Zettel]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[2017 Brewers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[2017 Brewers minor leagues]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[2017 Brewers prospects]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Brewers minor leagues]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Brewers prospects]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Brewers top prospects]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=9001</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Over the course of the last month, the league environments throughout the Brewers farm system are shifting, yet to solidify as a few bats begin to surpass 150 plate appearances and top arms reach 40 innings. As Brewers fans focus on stat lines awaiting scouting reports on their favorite prospects, these contextual statistics should help [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Over the course of the last month, the league environments throughout the Brewers farm system are shifting, yet to solidify as a few bats begin to surpass 150 plate appearances and top arms reach 40 innings. As Brewers fans focus on stat lines awaiting scouting reports on their favorite prospects, these contextual statistics should help to assess how each player&#8217;s age, opposing strength, and park context impacts their stat line. Minor league contexts vary so widely that simply presenting stats lines fails to capture whether a player is properly developing their tools or approach, or meeting their developmental assignment. </p>
<p>May 24 update for system bats:</p>
<table width="" border="" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0">
<tr bgcolor="#EDF1F3">
<th align="center">Brewers Affiliates (50+ PA)</th>
<th align="center">Age</th>
<th align="center">Median oppOPS</th>
<th align="center">Park (Brewers)</th>
<th align="center">Tough Competition?</th>
<th align="center">Easy Competition?</th>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">Pacific Coast AAA (207)</td>
<td align="center">25</td>
<td align="center">.742</td>
<td align="center">97 (116.5)</td>
<td align="center">No One</td>
<td align="center">Susac / Brinson / Rivera / Nieuwenhuis</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">Southern AA (124)</td>
<td align="center">24</td>
<td align="center">.6825</td>
<td align="center">97 (101)</td>
<td align="center">Roache / Charles / Nottingham / Reed</td>
<td align="center">No One</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">Carolina A+ (118)</td>
<td align="center">23</td>
<td align="center">.713</td>
<td align="center">100.5 (108)</td>
<td align="center">Ghelfi / Diaz / Ray</td>
<td align="center">McDowell / Gatewood</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">Midwest A (192)</td>
<td align="center">22</td>
<td align="center">.692</td>
<td align="center">100 (109)</td>
<td align="center">Cuas / Segovia</td>
<td align="center">Harrison / Neuhaus / Rodriguez / Lara</td>
</tr>
</table>
<p>May 24 update for system arms:</p>
<table width="" border="" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0">
<tr bgcolor="#EDF1F3">
<th align="center">Brewers Affiliates (16+ IP)</th>
<th align="center">Age</th>
<th align="center">Median oppOPS</th>
<th align="center">Park* (Brewers)</th>
<th align="center">Tough Competition?</th>
<th align="center">Easy Competition?</th>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">Pacific Coast AAA (168)</td>
<td align="center">26</td>
<td align="center">.7565</td>
<td align="center">102 (118.5)</td>
<td align="center">Wang / Archer / Hader</td>
<td align="center">Suter / Woodruff / Kohlscheen</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">Southern AA (103)</td>
<td align="center">24</td>
<td align="center">.685</td>
<td align="center">97 (100)</td>
<td align="center">Scott / Williams / Perrin / Wilkerson / Lopez / Snow</td>
<td align="center">Ventura</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">Carolina A+ (113)</td>
<td align="center">23</td>
<td align="center">.712</td>
<td align="center">99.5 (108)</td>
<td align="center">Everyone else</td>
<td align="center">Rodriguez</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">Midwest A (168)</td>
<td align="center">22</td>
<td align="center">.692</td>
<td align="center">100.5 (109.5)</td>
<td align="center">Desguin / Supak / Roegner</td>
<td align="center">Myers</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">*Park Factors are incomplete</td>
<td align="center"></td>
<td align="center"></td>
<td align="center"></td>
<td align="center"></td>
<td align="center"></td>
</tr>
</table>
<p>Original April 25 update for system bats:</p>
<table border="" width="" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr bgcolor="#EDF1F3">
<th align="center">Affiliate (Players)</th>
<th align="center">Median oppOPS</th>
<th align="center">Median Age</th>
<th align="center">Brewers Park Factor</th>
<th align="center">Easy Competition?</th>
<th align="center">Tough Competition?</th>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">AAA Pacific Coast (212)</td>
<td align="center">.7385</td>
<td align="center">26</td>
<td align="center">116.5</td>
<td align="center">Susac / Brinson / Rivera / De Jesus</td>
<td align="center">Cooper / Orf / Cordell / Wren</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">AA Southern (127)</td>
<td align="center">.660</td>
<td align="center">24</td>
<td align="center">98</td>
<td align="center">No One</td>
<td align="center">Everyone</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">Advanced A Carolina (102)</td>
<td align="center">.695</td>
<td align="center">23</td>
<td align="center">102</td>
<td align="center">Rijo / Ghelfi / Gatewood</td>
<td align="center">McDowell / Ray / Belonis / Erceg</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">A Midwest (197)</td>
<td align="center">.676</td>
<td align="center">22</td>
<td align="center">107</td>
<td align="center">Everyone</td>
<td align="center">No One</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">Players With &gt;10 PA</td>
<td align="center"></td>
<td align="center"></td>
<td align="center"></td>
<td align="center"></td>
<td align="center"></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>Original April 25 update for system arms:</p>
<table border="" width="" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr bgcolor="#EDF1F3">
<th align="center">Affiliate (Players)</th>
<th align="center">Median oppOPS</th>
<th align="center">Median Age</th>
<th align="center">Brewers Park Factor</th>
<th align="center">Easy Competition?</th>
<th align="center">Tough Competition?</th>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">AAA Pacific Coast (228)</td>
<td align="center">.736</td>
<td align="center">27</td>
<td align="center">125</td>
<td align="center">Woodruff / Garza / Cravy / Suter</td>
<td align="center">Wang / Archer / Burgos/ Scahill/ Hader</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">AA Southern (130)</td>
<td align="center">.650</td>
<td align="center">24</td>
<td align="center">97</td>
<td align="center">Jungmann / Ventura</td>
<td align="center">Gainey / Derby / Snow / Ramirez / Lopez</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">Advanced A Carolina (105)</td>
<td align="center">.695</td>
<td align="center">23</td>
<td align="center">96</td>
<td align="center">No One</td>
<td align="center">Everyone</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">A Midwest (211)</td>
<td align="center">.675</td>
<td align="center">22</td>
<td align="center">109</td>
<td align="center">Myers / Drossner / Garza</td>
<td align="center">Desguin / Roegner / Jankins / Brown / Supak</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">Players With &gt;4.0 IP</td>
<td align="center"></td>
<td align="center"></td>
<td align="center"></td>
<td align="center"></td>
<td align="center"></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
]]></content:encoded>
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