Related Reading: 2017 Breakouts

As 2017 draws to a close and we begin to look ahead to what the new year may bring, which under-the-radar prospects could be breakout performers in 2018?

OF Tristen Lutz (2018 age: 19)

Lutz fell to the Brewers in Competitive Balance Round A in this past summer’s draft, getting popped at #34 overall. The Arlington, Texas native was considered to be one of the best prep bats available, with Baseball America praising him as “an easy bat to believe in.” It took a signing bonus of nearly $400,000 above slot to entice Lutz away from his collegiate commitment to Texas, but the early returns on that investment look promising. Lutz played in 40 games between Milwaukee’s two rookie-level affiliates and compiled a stellar .311/.398/.559 slash with nine home runs for a .295 TAv.

Though he was drafted out of high school, Lutz has a man’s body at 6’3″ and 210 pounds. He has plenty of present strength that helps drive his plus raw power from the right side of the plate, power he’s already shown the ability to tap into during in-game settings. For the moment, Lutz is an above-average runner and he spent most of the summer patrolling center field, but the belief among scouts is that he’ll wind up settling into a corner spot. His plus arm strength would help him profile as an above-average defender in right field. Some stiffness and effort in his swing have caused some concern about the future utility of his hit tool, and he did strike out in 22.5 percent of his plate appearances last season.

Scouts have praised Lutz’s makeup and feel for the game, and he ranked in the “next ten” of the BP Top 10 prospects list for the Brewers for 2018. Lutz still has a long ways to go before he’s cranking dingers out of Miller Park, but for now he is a strong candidate to receive a full-season assignment in 2018, likely to Class A Wisconsin.

RHP Jordan Yamamoto (2018 age: 22)

Milwaukee’s scouts must have enjoyed their trips to Hawaii in 2014. Yamamoto garnered some attention by outdueling Kodi Medeiros during a matchup about a month before that year’s draft, and after the Brewers chose Medeiros with their 1st-round selection, they later plucked up Yamamoto in the 12th round. An over-slot $330,000 bonus convinced the right-hander to forgo his commitment to Arizona and join the professional ranks.

After spending his first two seasons in rookie ball, Yamamoto has quietly been excellent the past two years in his two full-season assignments. He spent all of 2016 with Class A Wisconsin, logging 134.3 innings with a 1.90 DRA, 84 DRA-, and 152:31 K/BB ratio. A promotion to Class A-Advanced Carolina in 2017 didn’t slow Yamamoto down, though an injury did limit him to 111.0 innings. They were pretty darn quality, though, as Yamamoto captured the league’s ERA title with a 2.51 total. A DRA- of 63 placed him alongside the most dominant pitchers in the league, and his peripherals remained strong with marks of 9.2 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9.

Yamamoto doesn’t fit the archetypal pitcher’s build, as he stands at an even 6’0″ and weighs 185 lbs. Eric Longenhagen of Fangraphs called Yamamoto a “spin rate darling” in his write up of the hurler within his recent Top 30 Brewers prospects post, noting that he works from a low three-quarters arm slot with a fastball that sits in the 89-92 MPH range and can touch as high as 94 MPH. He spins his curveball at nearly 2,000 RPM and it grades out as a future plus offering. Longenhagen believes that Jordan’s changeup is below-average and though he’s posted low walk totals at every stop, he gives his command a fringe average grade, as well.

The physical build and repertoire concerns could be enough to eventually relegate Yamamoto to a relief role, but given his prior success there’s little reason to believe that he won’t begin 2018 in the rotation at Class AA Biloxi. If he can continue to limit the walks and perhaps take a step forward with the cambio, an eventual spot in the back end of an MLB rotation is within reach.

Last year’s picks:

Zach Clark: .225/.327/.392, 7 HR, 10 SB in 248 PA with Helena, Wisconsin
Jon Perrin: 2.91 ERA, 64 DRA-, 7.8 K/9, 1.8 BB/9 in 105.3 IP with Biloxi

Fast forward a year and a half, and it’s safe to say that the early returns on the Louisville product have been less than encouraging. Ray batted .247/.308/.385 with 5 home runs and 9 steals (in 14 attempts) in 57 games with Brevard County in 2016; the Florida State League can be tough for hitters, but Ray’s offensive production still translated to a below-average .252 TAv. He returned to Advanced-A ball again this season, though with a new affiliate and in a new league with the Carolina Mudcats. The unfamiliar surroundings did not foster a better performance, as Ray could muster only a .238/.311/.367 slash line in 112 games with the Mudcats, clubbing 7 home runs while swiping 24 bases (and getting nabbed 10 other times). He lead the circuit in whiffs, punching out 156 times, or a whopping 31 percent of his plate appearances. The Carolina League can also be a harsh hitting environment, but once again Ray checked in with a below-average TAv of .254.

Now, we can’t glean all the pertinent information about a player’s development from the stat line, of course. Unfortunately, scouts have also began to sour on the future outlook for the player that when the season began, was universally considered to be a top-50 prospect in baseball.

ESPN Insider Keith Law, who was one of Ray’s biggest advocates when he was drafted, ranked the 23 year old as “the prospect who lost the most ground” in a post shortly after the minor league season ended. Law noted that Ray’s swing has gotten longer since his collegiate days and that he’s struggled to hit professional quality pitching. Ray fell out of the midseason top 50 prospect rankings according to Baseball Prospectus and Baseball America. Perhaps most damning was BP scout John Eshleman’s assessment of Corey from this “Monday Morning Ten Pack” in late August:

“Corey Ray is a premium athlete, and he has many skills baseball teams value highly. Unfortunately, at present, hitting does not appear to be among them…Ray is getting FV 45 grades, providing big-league value as a fourth outfielder who can play all three outfield spots and run. Yes, there is some raw power in there, but his current problems at the plate preclude him from tapping into it…his “handsy” swing also leads to lots of roll-over grounders to the right side and soft-to-medium contact to the left…As the quality of arms he faces improves, Ray will need to engage his legs and backside to create leverage and make hard contact, in addition to shortening his swing. It is still only Ray’s first-full season, so he has time. His eye is good and there’s some barrel control, so if he figures something out with his swing, his upside remains substantial. However, a fourth outfielder outcome is more likely at present.”

Yikes. While a good fourth outfielder is certainly a useful player on a major league roster, the Brewers certainly have to be hoping for more out of the player that they used their highest pick in a over a decade on (Ryan Braun going #5 overall in 2005 was the last pick as high as Ray’s spot).

Undeterred by his poor performance during the summer, Milwaukee sent Ray as one of their representatives to the Arizona Fall League. Hoping to salvage something positive out of an otherwise supremely disappointing season, Ray has thus far looked quite overmatched in the prospect showcase circuit. It’s obviously a small sample size, but Ray has managed only one hit and zero walks in his first 25 at-bats for an .040 average, and he’s already piled up 6 whiffs. Law recently published a roundup of notes from the AFL, and on Ray he wrote “he’s not making any hard contact so far — even when he got a green light on 3-0 on Thursday night and got a fastball, all he could do was tap it to second base. Ray used to hit with a short stride and toe-tap, but that’s gone now, and I think it’s at least one reason for the absence of any power in his swing.”

It’s easy to be disappointed in Corey Ray’s development – or lack thereof – so far since joining the professional ranks. To add insult to injury, the player selected one pick later, lefty AJ Puk by the Athletics, posted sub-2.00 DRA in 125 innings between Advanced-A and Class-AA this season while leading the minor leagues in strikeout rate. Ray was billed as a highly talented and advanced outfielder from an elite collegiate program, the type of player who should be able to rise relatively quickly through the minor leagues. He’s swiftly fallen to become more of a project player: one who could have high upside, but needs to work out a lot of issues with his offensive game first. Given that he’s already 23 years old and was near the median age for his league this year, that’s not a promising sign.

It’s worth keeping in mind that Ray did suffer what must’ve been quite a serious meniscus tear last fall during instructional league; the recovery and rehab wound up lasting through spring training and he got a late start to the 2017 regular season. He’s looked perhaps better than expected defensively in center field, too, grading out at +12.7 FRAA this season. Plus, the money that the club saved when Ray signed for under-slot last summer helped them bring several other later round signings into the fold with over-slot bonuses.

Still, given the way he’s started his career, it’s not difficult to envision a scenario where Corey Ray fails to become an impactful player at the MLB level, if he’s even able to make it there. Most prospect development is nonlinear, but at this point it feels like we’ll be crossing our fingers for Ray to become a late bloomer. Ray Montgomery is a considered to be a highly respected baseball mind around the league, but so far his two 1st-round draft picks during his time as scouting director in 2015-16 (Trent Clark and Corey Ray) have not panned out.

And then there are the pitchers. For reasons of workload or simple organizational cageyness, the Brewers rarely tend to send top pitching prospects to the AFL, with Josh Hader’s star turn in 2015 being a notable recent exception. Often, this means that the players chosen to represent Milwaukee tend to have strict relief profiles. That’s not to say those pitchers cannot be valuable to the organization; for example, Jacob Barnes represented the Brewers in the 2015 fall league, and 2016 AFL alum Tayler Scott was sent to the Rangers in exchange for Jeremy Jeffress at this year’s trade deadline. Do a little digging, and there’s always something interesting about AFL prospects.

This year, the pitcher of most interest is the rehabbing Adrian Houser, making his second career tour of the AFL following a productive stint in 2015. Jon Perrin joins Houser as another arm with viable big-league potential. Beyond that pair, Carolina Mudcats closer Nate Griep will look to build on a season that saw him record 30 saves in 33 chances, albeit with a bloated 4.62 DRA and 4.4 walks per nine innings.

That leaves lefty Quintin Torres-Costa as the final baby Brewer in Scottsdale. Milwaukee grabbed the 5’11” hurler in the 35th round of the 2015 draft after Tommy John surgery derailed his stock during his freshman year at University of Hawaii at Manoa. He’s spent the two-and-a-half seasons since his draft day outperforming that position.

For most of the 2017 season, Torres-Costa served as one third of Carolina’s three-headed Hawaiian pitching prospect monster, alongside 2014 draftees Kodi Medeiros (first round) and Jordan Yamamoto (12th round). Yamamoto had the best overall season, and Medeiros took the biggest step forward, trimming his walk rate from 6.7 to 3.7 per nine innings and adding back some of his missing strikeouts. But of the three, Torres-Costa proved the most difficult to hit. In 23 outings spanning 45.3 innings, he racked up an impressive 66 strikeouts against a respectable 15 walks. His 3.77 ERA was impressive enough, but DRA credits Torres-Costa with a mark of 3.12, nearly identical to his 3.10 FIP.

In mid-July, Torres-Costa leapfrogged his fellow islanders and earned a promotion to Class-AA Biloxi. He struggled at the higher level, losing his feel for the strike zone as he walked 17 men in 20.7 innings. The strikeouts stuck around, though. Even in Biloxi, Torres-Costa fanned 10.9 batters per nine. All those whiffs contributed to an optimistic FIP of 3.93, belying his bloated 5.71 DRA. If he rediscovers his command next season, he has the tools to make mincemeat of Southern League batters.

Torres-Costa deploys a low-90s fastball from a 3/4 arm slot. It’s a solid enough offering, but errant command can lead it to run over the heart of the plate, where it’s been punished with hard contact at times. He’ll throw an occasional cutter to offset the fastball, and has the makings of an above-average changeup. Torres-Costa doesn’t have the smoothest mechanics. Using a funky cross-body motion, he twists his back slightly towards the batter before firing home. That could spell trouble for his future command, but he could be a solid lefty specialist at the least if he irons out the kinks in his delivery.

Among Torres-Costa, Medeiros, and Yamamoto, the Brewers could enjoy an influx of Hawaiian arms fortifying their bullpen in the seasons to come. Medeiros and Torres-Costa have plenty of experience locking down the opposition in tandem; the two were high school teammates and combined to pitch a no-hitter in 2012. And although he’s the oldest, least known, and lowest-drafted of the three, Torres-Costa may be the first to make landfall in the big league ‘pen. Here’s hoping for an AFL campaign that’s high on whiffs and low on walks.

His junior season was a revelation. Perrin, now pumping his fastball over the plate in the low-90s, covered 102 innings with a 2.38 ERA, twirling a pair of complete-game shutouts among his 13 starts. His command came and went to the tune of 2.5 walks per nine, but he did enough that year to catch the eye of the Detroit Tigers, who selected him the 33rd round of the 2014 MLB Draft. For whatever reason, maybe because his performance deserved a higher selection, maybe because he was determined to finish his education, he went back to school in 2015.

Senior year was something of a step back. Perrin started 16 games and covered 84.3 innings, but his walk rate ballooned to 3.31 per nine innings. The flagging command may have resulted in a get-it-over-fastball dependency. Perrin surrendered seven home runs on the year, after allowing only two in his collegiate career to that point. Still, he’d flashed enough potential for his draft stock to improve; the Brewers gobbled him up in the 27th round and quickly sent him to Arizona to begin his professional career.

He made short work of the Arizona League, flummoxing hitters one and a half years his junior over ten dominant innings. Perrin moved up to Appleton and out-pitched his peripherals for the rest of the season, finishing with just shy of 40 innings and walking only four batters.

These results were the first indications that Perrin might be more than a run-of-the-mill 27th-rounder. Still, Perrin was far from the first advanced college arm to carve his way through the Midwest League. He was sent back to Appleton to start 2016, and lay waste to the league before a mid-season bump to Brevard County, which, it should be noted, scarcely slowed him down. He earned a bump to Class-AA at season’s end, and could have made a strong candidate for Minor League Pitcher of the Year, were it not for what Brandon Woodruff was up to in Biloxi.

2017 held a stiffer test. Perrin’s chief weapon is a fastball that tops out in the low-90s. The pitch has some natural sink, but Perrin relies primarily on deception. Hitters have a tough time reading pitches out of his hand, and he hides the ball well with his 3/4 delivery. Most importantly, he can spot the fastball throughout the strike zone.

He pairs that pitch with a slider that sits in the low to mid-80s and darts into or out of the strike zone for a share of whiffs. His changeup is coming along, too, and dives towards the dirt when he’s got it working. It, too, sits in the low to mid-80s, which renders his secondary offerings vulnerable when they’re not bending the way they should—ideally, one would like to see a little more separation among his velocities.

Perrin spent the entire 2017 season pitching for the Biloxi Shuckers, though he missed a month with a back injury in the middle of the season. AA is the level at which it become easier to distinguish wheat from chaff. The strike zone is a bit tighter, the hitters are a bit smarter, and many a fringe pitcher has seen his ascent to the big leagues slowed by advanced offenses that are better equipped to punish mistakes. But when Perrin took the mound for the Shuckers, he shone; for example, compare his 2.62 DRA to the 2.30 mark posted by the much-hyped Corbin Burnes.

What’s most remarkable about Perrin’s ascent through the minor leagues is the remarkable consistency he’s shown at each level. If you strip away the small samples immediately before or after a promotion and focus on one level per year—low-A ball in 2015, A+ in 2016, and AA in 2017, his numbers are eerily similar.

The fact that Perrin is likely ticketed to Colorado Springs next season could change that piece of symmetry. Then again, Perrin has made a habit of beating expectations. It’s not a stretch to imagine the former 27th-round pick giving Milwaukee useful bullpen innings or spot starts as soon as the end of next year. In fact, it’s a bit of a shame that his development hadn’t started one year sooner. With his 6’5” frame and plausible role as a future innings-eater, he’s exactly the kind of get-the-job-done fifth starter the Brewers could use right now.

Most minor league fans know the story of Perrin’s law school ambitions. He famously told reporters that he’d happily walk away from baseball if he was accepted at Harvard Law, his preferred school. His Twitter bio pegs him as a “future lawyer,” with baseball only mentioned insofar as his role as a “Milwaukee Brewers part time seasonal apprentice.” But Perrin is inching his way closer to big-league ready, and looks more and more like a viable major league arm. I hope he gets that law degree from Harvard. But I’d be glad if he waited a few years before enrolling.

This disparity makes for a unique spectator experience, and it was on full display when the Colorado Springs Sky Sox took on the Round Rock Express just north of Austin, Texas earlier this month. My wife and I made the drive from Houston to see a Saturday evening contest. When we bought our tickets in May, we were certain we’d catch a glimpse of some of the lauded prospects who would form the core of the next competitive Brewers club.

Of course, we should have remembered that you can’t predict baseball. To start with, the next competitive Brewers club is currently taking on the Pirates in Pittsburgh, which is not something I expected to be writing just a few months ago. As such, a number of members of Colorado Springs’ opening day roster, like Josh Hader and Brandon Woodruff, have seen their developmental clocks tick a little faster than anticipated.

There was also the matter of the SiriusXM All-Star Futures Game, which was to take place the following afternoon in Miami. That event robbed the Sky Sox of crown jewel Lewis Brinson and slap-happy Mauricio Dubon. Meanwhile, toolsy outfielder Ryan Cordell was sidelined by a nagging shoulder injury. So when the Sky Sox took the field under the searing Texas sun, their lineup was short on star power and long on organizational depth:

This was even more true of Round Rock. Including starting pitcher Tanner Scheppers, nine of the ten starters for the Express were 26 or older. Eight of those were at least 28, and seven had logged major league experience. Absent Ronald Guzman and Jason Martinson, the Express lineup was a who’s who of names you didn’t realize you’d forgotten:

The clubs lined up for a sloppy, seesaw game, rapping out 13 hits each and committing 5 combined errors in an eventual 10-9 Sky Sox loss. Brett Phillips starred as the best player on the field, contributing a double, a home run, two walks, and a HBP at the plate. He also flashed his plus speed and glove, running down a few long fly balls in the Dell Diamond power alleys. Round Rock, having had half a season with which to acquaint themselves with Phillips’s throwing arm, opted not to push their luck on the base paths.

Almost as impressive as Phillips’s four-tool display was Bubba Derby’s showing on the mound. The 23-year-old continued to excel in AAA, twirling five solid innings of two-run ball in his fourth Sky Sox start. Derby’s fastball sat at 89 mph, per the stadium gun, but he dialed it up to 91 in big situations and touched 92 in the fourth and fifth innings. The 5’11” righty flashed a good changeup, and mixed in an occasional slider and rare curve. Most importantly, he pounded the zone: Derby finished with seven strikeouts and just one walk, and he generally stayed ahead of his opposition. His is a middle-relief profile, but it’s not hard to squint and see major league contributions in his future.

Additional strong performances came from Nate Orf, who reached base four times in his campaign to see time in the show as a utility player, and new Yankee Garrett Cooper, who knocked a pair of singles to raise his batting average to .364 and his trade value to something approaching Tyler Webb.

It wasn’t all so rosy for the Sox, though, and nobody suffered more than a rehabbing Wily Peralta. The burly righty flashed his usual heat, but his fastball was straight as a laser and he fired his pitches with all the accuracy of a stormtrooper. Peralta was tagged for six runs (five earned) on four hits and two walks, and exited the game after recording just one out. It was an ignominious outing for the former rising star, so ineffective that I couldn’t help but wonder if Peralta was reaching the end of the line.

And in the end, that’s what stood out most in this game. On paper, AAA baseball is a hair’s breadth from the majors. But that one small step can sure look like a giant leap sometimes. Phillips and Cooper tasted the majors for the first time in 2017. Orf and Derby may join them this year or next, and Jett Bandy will find his way back to a 25-man roster at some point. But guys like Kirk Nieuwenhuis or Ivan De Jesus Jr. may never get another chance. And still they play on, be it for love of the game, fear of finding something else, or any number of unknowable reasons. They travel on the cheap and scrape by on microscopic wages, and they’re lucky to play in front of 10,000 fans. Between innings, they watch on-field promotions like “see if you can knock over five bottles of Evian with a baseball, suspended in a pair of pantyhose, attached to your head.”

They say baseball is a humbling sport. If the Sky Sox come your way in 2017, I hope you go and check out the next wave of young Brewers talent. Be sure to save some cheers for the rest of the roster, too.

Photo Credit: SportsLogos.net

But June 10th came and went, and Barker’s phone was as silent as most Cubs fans these days. That no major league team bothered to call his name surprised Barker then, and it’s baffling in retrospect. The righty sat in the low-90s with his fastball and can gas it up to 94 or 95. He throws five pitches in total and walked just 17 batters over his final 78-inning season at Chico State University.

Barker may have simply fallen victim to bad luck – a look at his game logs reveals an ill-timed stretch of five starts in which the hurler’s ability to strike out opposing hitters all but abandoned him. After whiffing a batter per inning over his first five starts, Barker fell into a funk – his next five saw him retire only 11 batters on strikes over 33.7 innings. Eleven of his walks also came during that period. He still limited runs, posting a 2.41 ERA in that span. But his lines suggest that something was off, and it’s hard to imagine a worse time for a college pitcher to lose his feel.

To his credit, Barker used his disappointment as so much more fuel. So he didn’t get drafted. His goals remained the same. Barker just needed to find a different path to pro baseball. And he needed to stay sharp. Barker zeroed in on the California Winter League and was immediately noticed by Dan Rohn, manager of the Traverse City Beach Bums of the independent Frontier League. Rohn handed him a contract, and Barker responded with a 1.44 ERA and 12.0 strikeouts per nine innings pitching out of the ‘pen. His strikeout-to-walk ratio sat at a cool 8.30, providing proof aplenty that the tall righty had rediscovered his stuff.

That’s the kind of performance that would catch the eyes of any team, but it was the Brewers who purchased Barker’s rights last offseason. It’s impossible to know, but Barker may have been on Milwaukee’s radar for a while, since he majored in exercise physiology in college, and hopes to pursue a PhD in biomechanics. That’s a noted area of interest for Assistant GM Matt Arnold, and it’s easy to imagine Barker carving out a future as a coach or trainer if his arm never takes him to the big leagues. He also throws a splitter, another trait that may have endeared him to the Brewers front office.

For now, Barker is happy to ride his arm for as long as he can. He was assigned to the class-A Wisconsin Timber Rattlers at the start of the season, and has responded as a 25-year-old in the low minor leagues should. He’s nursing a strong 2.43 ERA for the Rattlers, fanning 9.4 per nine and walking only 2.4. Barker has been especially dominant since a mid-May swoon: Over his last ten outings, he’s pitched to a 0.52 ERA with 20 Ks and just two walks in 17.3 innings.

Like any good biomechanics student should, Barker has a fluid, repeatable delivery featuring over-the-top arm action and a graceful stride. But even though this is his first season of affiliated ball, Barker is three years older than most of his competition. Monitoring his progress through the season, and specifically if and when he’s bumped up to Class Advanced A Carolina, should offer some insight into the organization’s approach to such an unconventional prospect. For now, Barker’s doing what he can to force their hand; he certainly doesn’t appear to have much more to prove in Appleton.

Midseason 2016 #1
Midseason 2016 #2
Midseason 2016 #3
April 2017

Three Up

RHP Corbin Burnes, AA Biloxi Shuckers
No pitching prospect in Milwaukee’s system has performed better than Burnes this year. He began the season with Class Advanced-A Carolina Mudcats, but after tossing an even 60.0 innings and letting in a scant 1.05 ERA/1.66 DRA, the right-handed hurler earned a promotion to Class-AA Biloxi. He debuted there last night with 3.7 scoreless, hitless innings with a walk and four strikeouts before rain wound up shortening his start. A 4th-round pick in last year’s draft, Burnes is the first player from Milwaukee’s class to reach the AA level. Mark Anderson called Burnes a “number four starter in the making” in a recent minor league update, praising his “electric” arm speed, above-average fastball, and three improving secondary pitches.

Related reading:
To his friends he’s known as Corbin, but to you it’s Mr. Burns

RHP Trey Supak, high-A Carolina Mudcats
When the Brewers decided to bump Burnes up to AA, Supak was also a beneficiary as he was promoted from Wisconsin to Carolina to back fill the rotation spot. He certainly deserved the elevation based on his performance with the Timber Rattlers, as he authored a 1.76 ERA/2.36 DRA across 41.0 innings with 53 punchouts against just 10 walks and 21 base hits allowed. He got roughed up a bit in his debut with Carolina (4 IP, 7 H, 4 ER, 7:1 K/BB), but with promising command projection and a durable frame, he’ll have the chance to develop into a number four or five starter before it’s all said and done. (Jason Rogers is hitting .270/.317/.420 in 46 games for Pittsburgh’s AAA affiliate after being outrighted off the 40 man roster).

Related reading:

Hot Soup

RHP Brandon Woodruff, AAA Colorado Springs

Woodruff broke out in a big way last season, capturing Milwaukee’s minor league pitcher of the year award after posting a 2.68 ERA and leading the minor leagues with 173 strikeouts in 158.0 innings between high-A and AA. He’s only continued to improve his stock with a strong season in the extreme hitter-friendly environs of Colorado Springs. In 56.3 innings for the Sky Sox, he’s worked to a 3.04 ERA but with an impressive 1.97 DRA. The strikeout rate is down a skosh, but he’s limiting walks and generating plenty of ground balls to make up for it. Armed with a plus fastball and a slider that’s been called his “out pitch,” Woodruff may have leapfrogged Josh Hader as the first prospect arm that could get an extended trial in the big leagues this season.

Brandon Woodruff 3 K's. 1st/3rd pitches were 97 in Nashville gun. #SkySox pic.twitter.com/DXtDlvAIi1

— Brewers Prospects (@BrewerProspect) May 29, 2017

Three Down

LHP Josh Hader, AAA Colorado Springs Sky Sox
Hader made his Class-AAA debut with Colorado Springs last season and though he struggled to prevent runs in a tough pitching environment, his peripherals were still strong. That has not been the case this year. In 50.0 innings Hader has coughed up a 5.58 ERA; by Deserved Run Average, his 10.04 (!!!) mark leaves him as the 5th-worst qualified AAA pitcher this season. He’s allowing two and a half homers per nine innings, is walking almost five and half batters per nine, and his strikeout rate has fallen from 11.5 K/9 to 8.5 K/9. The Brewers still view him as a future rotation piece, but the funky arm-slot and regression with his already fringey command may wind up making a future relief role that much more likely.

OF Michael Reed, AA Biloxi Shuckers
At one time, strong on-base skills and defensive versatility had scouts pegging Reed as a future oft-used reserve outfielder or fringe regular at the big league level. He’s gotten a couple of brief looks in The Show, but the the acquisition of several new outfield prospects pushed the 24 year old down the depth chart and he found himself back in AA this season after a middling year with Colorado Springs last year. Reed has shown some power and is drawing walks at a good clip in the Southern League, but he is batting only .215 and has struck out in more than 29 percent of his plate appearances, by far the highest total in any of his minor league seasons. Given the fact that he’s been repeatedly passed over for call-ups while Milwaukee is currently playing with only two true outfielders on the big league roster, one has to wonder how much longer the Brewers will carry Reed on the 40-man.

3B Lucas Erceg, high-A Carolina Mudcats
Last year’s outstanding performance between rookie ball and the Midwest League left many optimistic that 2016 2nd-rounder would be a fast-rising prospect through Milwaukee’s system. Erceg has slowed down quite a bit during his first exposure to the Carolina League this year, however. Through 47 games the 22 year old owns a meager .216/.259/.342 slash, though he has popped five home runs over the fence. Erceg has continued the trend of low walk rates that we’ve seen early in his career, which may mean that he won’t be much of an OBP threat as he progresses. As my colleague Nicholas Zettel has noted, Erceg has faced some pretty tough competition in high-A, and given his age and pedigree it’s probably a bit premature to start freaking out about the longer-term projections. Erceg’s pronounced struggles do make it seem rather unlikely that he’ll see AA ball this year though, as many hoped that he would.

May 24 update for system bats:

May 24 update for system arms:

Original April 25 update for system bats:

Original April 25 update for system arms:

Conventional wisdom dictates that starting pitchers are, by and large, even more incredible than relievers. They throw more pitches, they have better command, their stamina is unrivaled. So when a starting pitcher prospect fails, the first course of action is usually to try pitching him out of the ‘pen. It’s hard to remember now, but before Andrew Miller and Mariano Rivera became Andrew Miller and Mariano Rivera, they were taking the hill every fifth day and posting ERAs above 5. Brewers fans are familiar with this concept. Will Smith used to be a starter. Tyler Thornburg, too. Questions have been raised about Josh Hader’s future in the rotation. And Phil Bickford’s. And Jorge López’s. And so on.

All of which is to say that to be a pure relief prospect in the minor leagues is to occupy a pretty low rung on the organizational ladder. Bullpen prospects simply aren’t as valuable as their starting counterparts, and relievers can be cut at the drop of a hat to make room for a more proven commodity; just ask Tyler Cravy. But look around a big league bullpen, and you’re bound to find a few arms that muscled their way to the show without ever gracing an organizational prospect list.

Which brings us to Tristan Archer. The Brewers selected Archer in the 21st round of the 2013 draft out of Tennessee Tech. Throughout his professional career, Archer has exhibited an uncanny knack for run prevention. He made his professional debut for Helena in 2013, working to a 3.08 ERA over 38 innings. Since then, he’s climbed through the farm at a level-per-year clip.

His CV over the last three years:

A few things stand out here. First, the comical: Archer rattled off three consecutive years with a 3.42 ERA. But take another look – Archer’s DRA has steadily dropped, bottoming out at a sterling 1.39 last year in AA. He’s added one strikeout per nine innings each year. And at the same time he’s added whiffs, Archer has become a control freak, walking less than one batter per nine in Biloxi. But he’s never sniffed a prospect list.

Nonetheless, Archer is up to his usual tricks so far in 2017 (with statistics through May 5).

Give Archer some time to adjust to AAA hitting, and more Ks should come. Meanwhile, the command hasn’t gone anywhere and Archer is generating ground balls at a career-high rate. Early indications suggest that the thin air of Colorado Springs won’t pose much of a problem.

The 26-year-old has been a little old for each level, but that shouldn’t cloud Archer’s adjustments. Tristan Archer is learning to flat-out pitch, and is proving himself capable of dominating the upper minors. That or he’s a sorcerer, able to prestidigitate his way to a 3.42 ERA for all eternity. Either way, Archer could become the next under-the-radar prospect to make an impact out of the Milwaukee bullpen. Don’t be shocked if he cracks the 40-man roster this winter – it might not even take that long.

Now entering his fourth season as a professional ballplayer, the 21-year-old could have quite a bit to be frustrated about. He has been hampered by injuries in his early career, has not put up the numbers expected by a second round draft pick, and has not made it past low A-ball. He has only played in 154 games the past two years due to a broken ankle in 2015 and a broken hand in 2016. As a hitter who relies on his speed, power, and athleticism, those might be the two worst injuries for a player of his skillset to have.

Yet after speaking with Harrison for a matter of moments, I could tell right away he was someone with a fresh and refocused mindset and that will give the game of baseball everything he’s got. “My plan is just to keep growing, each and every day, not trying to focus too far down the road. Every time I wake up in the morning, the first thing I tell myself is to ‘seize the day’.”

Seize the day he has so far in 2017.  In 18 games, the outfielder is slashing .333/.489/.636 with five doubles and five home runs. While unfortunately there is no publicly available minor league exit velocity data, you can see in the many videos across Twitter that Harrison has been hitting the ball hard. As this Brewers Prospects clip shows:

Monte Harrison HR (5) #TRats pic.twitter.com/T7dhnXtlIs

— Brewers Prospects (@BrewerProspect) April 22, 2017

It may be subtle, but Harrison’s ground ball rate is down from last season, and his fly ball percentage has ticked up as well.

Statistics courtesy of MLBfarm.com

As many of us are now aware, baseball is in some sort of a fly ball revolution and I asked Harrison if he was a part of it.

“Honestly, I don’t think about whether or not to hit the ball in the air. I just tell myself to square it up. If I square it up, it will be in the air. That’s with anybody. But no, no thought process to it. No change of the swing. More about better timing and being able to hit the fastball.”

It will be interesting to see if Harrison can continue to trend towards more fly balls and less ground balls. For someone who can square up a ball and hit it as hard as he can, he could do some serious damage with the ball hit in the air, and that is what fans have seen so far early this season. With that being said, he does however have a different thought process when he is up at the plate.

“No thinking, just hit the fastball. If they throw certain things, then I change my mindset. But all I am really trying to do is hit the fastball. Capitalizing on mistakes, that’s what is going to get you to the big leagues. That has always been my mindset, but I was going back and forth between getting caught up and thinking too much. I am trying to tell myself to stay fastball the whole time. Fastball, fastball, fastball.”

It seems as if Harrison has approached the 2017 season in a different way than in years past. Another new addition to his approach was his offseason, where he moved down to Florida to train with Eric Cressey at Cressey Sports Performance in Jupiter, Florida. Cressey, who works with numerous Major League Baseball players, “specializes in applied kinesiology and biomechanics as they relate to program design and corrective exercise; maximal relative strength development, and performance enhancement.” I spoke to Eric and we discussed Monte’s first offseason participating in their workout program.

“Sometimes what we see with guys, they can be very strong but with bad workout patterns. We saw a little bit of that with Monte. Our goal was to put some good stiffness in the right place. At the same time, he is a guy who could put on 270 pounds and six percent body fat in two months. He puts on muscle mass very quickly and very easily. However, that is not something that is super functional. We want to keep his weight in check, but also make sure he was moving better and heading in the right direction.

“It is not just the exercise you are doing, but how you are doing it. We want to make sure when he is going through his training techniques we are not sacrificing form for the sake of lifting heavy weights. We are not just trying to show off athleticism – we are trying to enhance it and make it more sustainable. I think those things made a really big difference for him.”

As I mentioned previously, Cressey works with many Major League Baseball players. This list includes the likes of Max Scherzer, Steve Cishek, and Logan Morrison, just to name a few. Cressey pointed out how valuable of an experience it is for Harrison to be around these players for hours at a time, to listen and to learn how to train and condition your body, as well as preparing your body for a full season.

“The biggest improvement I saw in Monte this offseason was his core control – his positional awareness. We talked about not just doing exercises, but understanding where you position yourself as you do them.

“I think the other thing it does is it makes for a much more efficient force transfer. One of the things we kind of joke about is that it is easier to make a fast guy strong than it is to make a strong guy fast. You put some strength in the right places and allow make them transfer force more effectively, it puts the hitter in a really good position to generate bat speed.”

Cressey noted that he was extremely impressed with Harrison’s demeanor and work ethic. Harrison moved down to Florida this offseason to train six days a week at the Cressey Sports Performance facility. Cressey really respected Harrison’s drive and commitment to baseball.

While Harrison’s offseason consisted of major strides and gains when it came to taking care of his body, training effectively, and refocusing his mental approach, there was yet another change to his game after his 2016 season. I noticed that Harrison repositioned his hands prior to the pitch being thrown. The images below show a drastic shift in hand positioning.

2016 Front View & Side View

2017 Front View & Side View

I asked Harrison about this, and my assumption was correct. Harrison told me that during this past winter, he and then-hitting coordinator Jeremy Reed decided to experiment with positioning his hands lower. The first game Harrison tried this new approach, he went 3-for-5 with a double and a home run. That instant success sold him on the new approach.

Harrison said that keeping his hands lower put him in a much stronger ‘set’ position, where he could feel that pause and power in the back leg prior to the pitch being thrown. There is also the addition, or resurrection, of a more pronounced leg kick that he had when he was younger.

Lastly, I pointed to Harrison his decrease in stolen base numbers over the years. Back in 2014 (his first year as a pro), the speedster was 32-of-34 in stolen base attempts in only 50 games. But this past season, Harrison was only 8-for-11 in stolen base attempts in 80 games.

“I am definitely a runner at the end of the day. Anybody you can ask on the team, I am definitely a runner. In certain situations in the game, you need to be smart about what you do on the bases. I am still the same speed level as I was before.”

So far this season, the 21-year-old is only 1-for-2 in stolen base attempts, but here is the bright side to that stat: 10 of his 22 hits have gone for extra bases, so the opportunities to steal second base really haven’t been there. Fans would all much rather see doubles and home runs than stolen bases, and Harrison didn’t seem to mind either.

While we still haven’t flipped the calendar to May, Harrison is showing major signs of improvement at the plate. He is feeling much more comfortable and it is evident in his production on the field. Many skeptics seem to forget that 6-foot-3, 220 pound athlete was only able to legally walk into a bar this past August. Harrison is younger than Orlando Arcia, Lewis Brinson, and Corey Ray. He was a two-sport athlete in high school who only recently devoted every moment of his life to baseball, and has been slowed down by two freak injuries. If the month of April is any indication of future success for Harrison, his five-tool potential may one day be achieved.