The Brewers selected Olczak out of NC State in the 21st round back in 2015, Ray Montgomery’s first year back with the organization and running the draft. He missed plenty of bats and prevented runs well during his junior season, posting a 2.55 ERA with 47 strikeouts in 23 appearances and 42.0 innings, but his struggles with command led to questions about how his game would translate to the professional ranks. He issued more than six walks per nine innings during his final collegiate season for the Wolfpack, but chose to put his fate in the hands of Milwaukee’s coaching staff rather than return for his senior season and try to improve his draft stock.

It didn’t take long for Olczak to start finding the strike zone more consistently once he started getting paid to pitch. The righty immediately slashed his walk rate during his first professional season in 2015, doling out only five of them across 27.7 innings split between Milwaukee’s two rookie-level affiliates. His command hasn’t been quite that good in the years since, but he’s been able to hover in that 3.0 BB/9 range in each of the past three seasons. That is certainly a palatable number for a reliever.

If it wasn’t for the walks, batters would hardly ever reach base against Olczak. He has allowed only 7.2 hits per nine innings in the minor leagues, a number that is inflated by the 11.5 hits per nine (and .397 Batting Average on Balls in Play [BABIP]) he posted in 2017 when a lat strain limited him to 22.0 innings and diminished his overall effectiveness. This past season for the Double-A Biloxi Shuckers, batters recorded only 36 hits in 56.3 innings for an average of .180. Olczak is a fly-ball pitcher who has shown to be adept at producing pop ups; he generated infield flies at a terrific 19.4 percent rate this season and was between 24-30 percent at the lower levels.

Olczak was a revelation in the bullpen for the playoff-bound Shuckers this season, joining the team after two early-season appearances for the Class-A Advanced Mudcats. As mentioned he tossed 56.3 innings for Biloxi across 42 appearances, and in that time he yielded only a minuscule 1.44 ERA. He struck out 60 batters while issuing only 19 free passes, and only one opposing batter took him deep all season. Jon’s walks and hits per innings pitched (WHIP) was stellar at 0.977; his True Average allowed of .205 is perhaps even more impressive. Olczak’s DRA- of 73 means that Deserved Run Average views his work as 27 percent better than his Southern League cohorts this season; outside of his injury hiccups in 2017, Olczak has posted far better-than-average Deserved Run Average totals at every level he’s pitched at.

The 24 year old (25 in November) isn’t just some experienced collegiate arm using his guile to outsmart inexperienced minor league hitters, either. Olczak’s raw stuff is pretty nasty, by all accounts. Olczak has an easy, fluid delivery and releases the ball from a fairly standard high three-quarters arm slot. He can crank his fastball up to 95 MPH, but more typically sits in the 91-93 MPH range along with a sharp-breaking curveball in the high-70s MPH that flashes plus at times. He’s been known to manipulate the shape of his breaking pitch, sometimes showing batters more of a slurvy action with it.

The Brewers will have a decision to make on Jon Olczak during the upcoming offseason, as the relief ace will be Rule-5 Draft eligible for the first time. The fact that he’s solely a bullpen arm could work against him in his quest for a 40-man roster spot with Milwaukee, although there could be a better chance for Olczak now given that the org shipped out several other guys with upcoming Rule-5 decisions during their July and August trades. The statistical and scouting profiles say that Jon Olczak should be getting guys out at the game’s highest level in the near future, perhaps even as soon as next season. A strong showing in the Arizona Fall League could go a long way towards convincing the powers that be that his destiny ought to lie with the Menomonee Valley Nine.

Perrin has the build to start, as he stands 6’5″ and weighs in at 220 lbs. Although he doesn’t overwhelm with his stuff, he mixes his four pitches well and can throw his fastball, curveball, slider, and changeup all for strikes. He was scouted in the lower levels as having the potential upside of a mid-to-back of the rotation starter, so it seemed a bit curious when the Brewers converted him to full-time relief to begin 2018. The right started the year with Colorado Springs and authored a 2.59 ERA across 24.1 innings, but was sent back down to Biloxi while guys like Alec Asher and Paolo Espino received turns in the Triple-A rotation. Perrin continued to pitch out of the bullpen for the Shuckers until the trade, which GM David Stearns classified as “allowing Jon to get a little bit of a fresh opportunity.”

Perrin is Rule-5 eligible this fall and given how the org treated him this season, it was probably unlikely that he was going to net a 40 man roster spot. The rebuilding Royals are devoid of pitching talent, and therefore can offer Perrin a better opportunity to not only reach the majors more quickly, but to get there as a starting pitcher. The 25 year old has been pitching in the rotation for Double-A Northwestern Arkansas since the swap, posting a 3.21 ERA across 14.0 innings covering three starts.

In exchange for Perrin, the Brewers received a 22 year old right-hander who, according to Slingin’ Stearns, has “some ingredients to turn into a prospect.” Sal Biasi was an 11th-round pick of the Royals just last summer in 2017 and inked for a $125,000 bonus, the maximum slot value for a pick in rounds 11-40. Baseball America described the stocky right-hander as “a near-average athlete with functional body control and looseness to his delivery” while evoking a George Costanza comp, but a scout I spoke with indicated that Biasi is someone that the Brewers have liked for awhile and that he deserves more credit than that for his athleticism. The Penn State product had an offer to walk on to Villanova’s basketball team before electing to pursue baseball with the Nittany Lions.

Biasi has a pretty simple delivery, pitching exclusively from the stretch while releasing the ball from a standard high three-quarters arm slot. His arm action and head tilt creates a little bit of deception and can make it a bit tougher for hitters to pick the ball up out of his hand. His fastball is his best pitch, sitting in the low-90s with the ability to run up to 95 MPH. Both Baseball America and my scouting source thought Biasi’s secondary pitch, a curveball in the 79-82 MPH range, was a below-average pitch when he was drafted. Those factors, along with the idea that Biasi is a bit undersized at 6’0″ and 190 lbs, lead most to believe that his future will ultimately be in the bullpen. He’s pitched predominantly as a reliever since joining the professional ranks, starting only eight of 44 appearances over the last two seasons.

Biasi posted a nifty 2.41 ERA while tossing 56.0 innings across two rookie levels in his debut season of 2017, though peripherals like DRA didn’t exactly support that level of run prevention. His numbers have come back down to Earth during his first exposure to full-season ball in 2018. Biasi owns a 4.73 ERA in 51.3 innings for Milwaukee’s and Kansas City’s Class-A affiliates this year, though he has allowed only three earned runs in 8.7 innings so far for Wisconsin. He’s missed plenty of bats this season, whiffing 9.3 batters per nine innings, and his 3.9 BB/9 is a palatable number.

Since taking over in 2016, the Stearns regime has done an incredible job developing and deploying their pitchers. Milwaukee’s track record with their arms and their highly-respected cadre of pitching coaches, led at the MLB level by Derek Johnson and filtering throughout the org, gets me automatically interested in just about every pitcher that the front office specifically targets and brings into the fold. After all, this is the org that has coaxed ace-level run prevention from Junior Guerra and Chase Anderson, resuscitated the career of Wade Miley, taught veteran hurlers Jeremy Jeffress and Jhoulys Chacin a split-finger pitch that has become key to the success of both pitchers, and developed Freddy Peralta from teenager to rookie strikeout sensation.

So maybe Sal Biasi, who you won’t find on any top-30 prospect lists, is just a future reliever. Maybe the main driver of this deal was that unlike Jon Perrin, he happens to have another two years until he needs to be protected from the Rule 5 Draft. Or, maybe the “ingredients” are indeed there for Sal Biasi to turn into more. Maybe his track record of pitching multiple innings means he can stretch out to be a starter. Maybe the org can help him improve the bite on his curveball a bit, and perhaps he learns the signature Milwaukee splitter to give him a three-pitch mix. Maybe the Brewers have some sort of biomechanical analysis that will help him thrive even with fringe to below-average command grades, like Guerra and Chacin and Peralta before him.

The “maybes” are the fun part about dreaming on prospects. Now all we have to do is watch how things play out.

After Saturday, forty innings, he’s struck out 55 batters for a pace of 12.4 per nine innings. That’s almost four times his walk rate (3.2 free BB/9). His worst DRA- at any stop this season is a cool 59.2, or an incredible 40 percent better than league average (in 2003, Pedro Martinez ran a 58 DRA-). His combined ERA is 3.15.

Yet this prospect lacks overpowering stuff and hasn’t appeared on any list of Milwaukee’s best farmhands. His name’s Miguel Sanchez, and he sneaked his way to Triple-A Colorado Springs for a few games this month after starting the season in Class-Advanced A Carolina. (He was subsequently sent back down to Double-A Biloxi.) Even so: At one point this season, at least in theory, Miguel Sanchez was a phone call away from the major leagues. With all the organizational depth the Brewers have created, who could have predicted that at the start of the year?

Eye-popping seasons are worth examining no matter their source, and Sanchez’s has been revelatory. He’s shown a surprising penchant for missing bats in the upper minors, with a combined strike out rate of 32.7 percent. That number is right between what Felipe Vazquez and Corey Knebel are doing in the majors. When opposing batters do manage to put the ball in play, they’re usually beating it into the ground (53.2 groundball percentage in Carolina, 41.3 percent in Biloxi, and an irrelevant 0 percent in two innings for the Sky Sox). Sanchez is walking 8.3 percent of all batters faced, which puts him two percentage points lower than Josh Hader. That means that subtracting his walk rate from strike out rate (K-BB) leaves an excellent 24.4, which would place him among the top 25 relief pitchers in the big leagues this year with at least 20 innings pitched.

That’s the good news. The bad news, of course, is that those numbers are largely irrelevant. You can’t transpose minor league stats into big league production, and “don’t scout the stat line” exists for a reason. Still, that’s a compelling stat line, the sort that’s usually predictive of future success. A wide array of traditional and advanced metrics are in agreement: Sanchez has been lights out this year. And results are results.

At 6’3” and 190 pounds, the right-handed Sanchez isn’t exactly undersized, but he’s also not the most imposing presence on the mound. An under-the-radar signing in January of 2016, Sanchez has spent most of his career pitching to younger competition, which partially explains the lack of scouting attention. He reached class-A Wisconsin as a 22-year-old towards the end of the 2016 season, then repeated that level in 2017 to middling results (4.26 DRA with a decent number of strikeouts but a lot of hits surrendered). He’s about the same age as the average Southern League pitcher this season for Biloxi; it’s encouraging to see him holding his own, though again, he’s surrendering a surprising number of hits for someone who strikes so many batters out.

Part of that may be attributable to his delivery. Sanchez whips the ball to the plate from a 3/4 arm slot, which is particularly deceptive to same-handed hitters; righties are mustering just a .594 OPS against Sanchez this year, compared to a .768 OPS from lefties. His fastball tops out in the low 90s and features some late sink that’s useful for coaxing bad swings and ground balls. His secondary offerings show a nice separation in velocity. He throws an occasionally promising changeup in the low- to mid-80s. At its best, the pitch fades away to his arm side and could go a long way towards helping Sanchez overcome his platoon struggles. An upper-70s curveball rounds out the mix. It has nice movement, but too often struggles to cross the plate; he’ll need to become more comfortable throwing the curve for a strike and not simply spiking it in 0-2 counts.

Add it all up, and it’s a reasonable profile. If Sanchez tightens up his command, he could probably turn into a solid low-leverage or situational reliever, with a chance for something more interesting should he enjoy a sudden uptick in stuff. That kind of profile, of course, is a dime a dozen, particularly in a pitching-rich Brewers organization. But Sanchez is turning some heads this year; he’s more on the map now than he ever was. With a strong end to the season and a good showing next spring, he could start to look pretty deserving of a roster spot. Whether he gets that opportunity with the Brewers is another story, but remember that Nick Franklin and Mike Zagurski have suited up for the Brew Crew this year. Anything can happen.

Moore began his career just a few short years ago, when he was selected by the Texas Rangers in the 7th round of the 2015 MLB Draft. A cash-saving senior sign, he inked for only a $20,000 bonus coming out of Central Florida. But even at that time, scouts were a little bit higher on Moore than your typical run-of-the-mill college senior, with Baseball America noting that he was a solid all-around player with a disciplined approach and improving power whose makeup and instincts helped him get the most of his tools.

Moore hit the ground running once he arrived in the professional ranks. He began his time as a pro with the Spokane Indians of the Northwest League and posted a True Average (TAv) north of .300 in 65 games before getting a promotion to the Hickory Crawdads of the Sally League for a brief four-game foray to close out the season. In 69 games between the two stops, Moore hit a combined .271/.376/.454 with seven home runs and 15 steals. He began 2016 back in Hickory as a 23 year old and though he only hit for a paltry .244 batting average, Moore drew a free pass in 13 percent of his plate appearances and hit for extra bases 30 times in 101 games, including nine home runs. That translated to a .244/.372/.394 slash for a terrific .301 TAv, and on top of that he swiped 37 bags with an 80 percent success rate.

The Rangers then brought Moore up to Class-A Advanced High Desert, where he demolished the ball for 17 games. In 80 plate appearances, Moore slashed .351/.400/.649, clubbed five dingers, seven doubles, and nabbed three bases. Then on August 24th, Moore was sent to Atlanta as part of a complicated three team deal that ultimately brought Jeff Francoeur from Atlanta to Miami, prospect Matt Foley from Miami to Atlanta, and three international bonus slots to Texas.

Atlanta assigned Moore to the Class-A Advanced Carolina Mudcats (now a Brewers’ affiliate) and he closed out the year by hitting for a .337 TAv in 10 games. All together in 2016, Moore posted a .269/.379/.441 slash with 14 home runs and 42 steals. Wanting to see more of Dylan, the Braves made him one of their representatives for the Arizona Fall League and he only continued to impress. In 11 games for the Salt River Rafters, Moore hit .317/.378/.537 with two homers and two steals. Even though he was slightly old for each league that he played in during his highly successful 2016 campaign, Moore began to show up on the back end of Braves prospect lists that offseason. That includes the Fangraphs’ list, where Eric Longenhagen ranked him #26:

“Despite a very simple swing consisting of very little lower half use, Moore is able to generate average raw power, and he can torch balls on the inner half. When pitchers are working him away, he has trouble getting the bat head there without extending his hands early and arriving late…He’s a 40 runner and, despite having played most of his pro career there, I don’t think he fits at short full time. He’s already begun to see time at the other three infield spots, and he spent time in the outfield with Texas…I like him as a mistake-hitting utility man who plays all over the field.”

Mark Anderson of Baseball Prospectus also had some praise for the utilityman during the Fall League:

“Already 24-years old, Moore is far from a high-end prospect, but he’s shown some bat-to-ball ability and gap pop since signing as seventh round pick in 2015. Traded as part of a three-team deal that sent international bonus pools in every direction, Moore has the feel and high effort style of play to make his modest tools work in a utility role at the big league level.”

They say the toughest jump for any minor league ballplayer is the one from Class-A Advanced up to Double-A, as Double-A is often where a player’s abilities are tested for the first time against other young men with the realistic goal of making the big leagues. Unfortunately for Moore, that leap proved too difficult to handle effectively, at least his first time around. Unable to build on his success from the previous season, Moore could manage only a .207/.291/.292 slash in 122 games for an anemic .236 TAv. He struck out in nearly 20 percent of his plate appearances and couldn’t drive the ball at all like he did previously, yielding only an .086 ISO. He wasn’t nearly as effective on the base paths either, swiping only 10 bases successfully in 18 attempts.

But most of the damage to Moore’s feeble full-season output came during the first two months of the 2017 season, and once he got his feet wet at the Double-A level his production began to improve. In 67 games from June 15th through the end of the season, Moore hit .260/.347/.351, which actually translated to a better-than-average batting line in the pitching-friendly Southern League. That wasn’t enough to save him, however. Atlanta kept Dylan around through the 2017-18 offseason, but apparently had soured on him enough that they surprisingly released him during this past Spring Training.

In desperate need of middle infield depth in their upper minors, the Milwaukee Brewers wasted little time in pouncing on Moore once he became available. He inked a minor league deal on April 3rd and reported to Biloxi for a second-chance at taking down the Southern League. He didn’t last very long at Double-A, but this time it was for a good reason. Moore started 24 games for the Shuckers, and in 91 plate appearances he demolished his foes to the tune of a .373/.429/.639 slash with three long balls, three triples, seven doubles, and six steals. On May 10th, he was promoted to Triple-A for the first time in his career.

Moore’s bat has stayed hot at the highest level of the minors. He’s now suited up in 41 games for the Sky Sox. In 151 plate appearances, he’s hitting .313/.384/.560 with another five homers and nine more steals. The hitter-friendly environs of Colorado Springs dampen that to a still-strong .282 TAv, but in 242 plate appearances between Biloxi and Colorado Springs Moore now owns an org-leading .991 OPS. He’s also started games at every fielding position except catcher and right field this season. A shortstop by trade, Moore can still handle the spot but possesses only an average arm and he has spent most of his time at second base and third base since getting bumped up to the Sky Sox.

Moore will turn 26 later this summer and will be Rule 5-eligible for the first time this coming offseason. He appears to have gotten his game back on track is getting close to fulfilling the future 50 hit, 50 raw power grades that Longenhagen placed on him only two winters ago. A solid contact hitter (16.9 percent K rate this season) from the right side who can play all over the field, Moore’s profile is a bit reminiscent of current MLB super-utilityman Hernan Perez, who has proven to be an extremely useful (although not exactly good) player in parts of four seasons with Milwaukee. Moore may even have a little bit more power potential, and certainly appears to possess a better eye at the plate, meaning that he could have even more upside in a utility role than Hammerin’ Hernan has shown. Given how the Brewers have cycled through the middle infielders already this season as they chase their first playoff berth in seven years, it certainly wouldn’t come as a surprise to see Dylan Moore get an opportunity before the end of 2018.

Of course, the draft isn’t the only way to add upside to the farm. Lost in the prospect explosion was this minor move: On June 2, the Milwaukee Brewers purchased the contract of 6’0” 27-year-old righty Danny Reynolds from the Sugar Land Skeeters of the independent Atlantic League.

For many prospects, the independent leagues are the last stop on the way out the door, a skewed simulacrum of a dream that’s about to slip permanently out of reach. For others, these leagues are a place to re-establish value or open new eyes. Danny Reynolds didn’t want to end up pitching in the independent leagues. Few players want to end up in the independent leagues. But for Reynolds, the decision made a certain amount of sense.

Originally drafted as a high schooler by the Los Angeles Angels in 2009, Reynolds was part of what might be the best draft class in the last decade. Before his name was called, the Angels had already selected Randal Grichuk, Mike Trout, Tyler Skaggs, Garrett Richards, and Patrick Corbin. Reynolds didn’t appear very interested in adding his name to the big league ledger, racking up just 34.3 innings of rookie league ball before failing a second test for a drug of abuse and sitting out the first 50 games of the 2012 season. (When he did get back on the mound, Trout was on his way to an 8.6 WARP rookie season.)

Even so, Reynolds offered the Angels a glimmer of hope. He rebounded to reach high-A ball at the end of 2012, then scuffled as he repeated that level in 2013. When he moved to the bullpen in 2014, he turned in his finest professional season to date, recording a cumulative 2.90 ERA and 9.1 K/9 across high-A, double-A, and triple-A. The Angels added him to their 40-man roster that fall; five solid months could have put him in contention for a September call-up.

Things didn’t work out that way. Reynolds regressed in 2015, issuing walks at a higher rate than ever before (5.8 BB/9 across 43.3 double-A innings). In the course of one offseason, he was waived by the Angels, claimed by the Dodgers, designated for assignment, claimed by the Astros, and DFAd again before landing back with the Angels. He found the strike zone even less frequently in 2016, handing out 24 walks in 33.7 innings before being released on June 30. He finished the year in the independent American Association league.

Reynolds signed with the Atlanta Braves before 2017, and spent most of the season back at AA, where he managed 4.8 walks per nine innings en route to a decidedly mediocre 4.99 DRA. Even though the surface level results were good (3.26 ERA in 58 innings, followed by a three-inning trial at triple-A to close the year), Reynolds knew he faced a steep climb to the majors, as the Braves are arguably the most pitching-rich organization around. So he elected and was granted free agency in November of 2017 and wound up languishing through the slowest offseason ever. In the end, he signed with the independent Skeeters and pitched well enough for the Brewers to take a chance and send him to Biloxi. Another stint in the indy leagues can make the prospect of a fifth consecutive season at double-A a little more appealing.

Reynolds, too, seems more appealing these days. At 27, he’s seemingly past the immaturity that jeopardized his career before it really got started. And while the independent leagues are a far cry from affiliated ball, he only walked two batters in 15 innings with the Skeeters.

Reynolds pitches from a three-quarter arm slot. His calling card has always been velocity; he can dial up his fastball to the upper-90s with a varying degree of arm-side run. When he’s on, it’s a great pitch, tying up right-handed hitters and diving away from lefties. When he’s not, it might end up anywhere within a four-foot radius of the strike zone, including right down the middle, with no arm-side run to speak of. Reynolds also possesses a slurvy breaking ball that has at various points flashed above-average. It’s been on a plateau for a few years, though, and will need to develop some consistency in order to carry Reynolds further up the organizational ladder.

Entering Sunday, through three appearances and four innings with the Shuckers, Reynolds has a pristine 0.00 ERA and seven strikeouts against just one walk. Given his combination of velocity and stuff, he may yet have a future as a middle-innings reliever. Of course, the Brewers have a stacked bullpen, with more capable arms than available roster spots. The only way Reynolds will pitch in Milwaukee is if disaster strikes. Unless he’s turned a corner mechanically and the command is here to stay. Years of inconsistency caution against counting on such a change. Then again, this is baseball we’re talking about. Stranger things have happened. Keep an eye on Reynolds this summer: he’s just the kind of underdog Stearns has targeted in the past. Sooner or later, one of them is going to surprise us.

Hit tool? Keston Hiura.
Throwing arm? That’s Brett Phillips. (Laugh also belongs to Phillips.)
Curveball? I’ll take Adrian Houser here.

What about the fastball? There are some fun arguments to be had. Taylor Williams is pretty electric. Brandon Woodruff can touch 98. How about a spin-rate sleeper like Caden Lemons? And of course we all saw what Freddy Peralta can do with his heater when he’s on.

I’ve got somebody else in mind, though. He may not be the best, but he’s certainly in the conversation. He’s a 6’7”, 250-pound kid signed out of the Dominican Republic, and he became one of the first Brewers farmhands to earn a mid-season promotion when he was bumped up to the Carolina League on May 18. He’s imposing on the mound to say the least, where his preternatural strength combines with easy, fluid arm action to pump gas into the zone in the upper 90s.

He’s Braulio Ortiz.

We’ll start with the positives here. Obviously, Ortiz is capable of blowing a hitter away. If the velocity doesn’t tell you that, check his minor league career K/9 of 10.3, or this year’s figure, which sits at 14.85.

Here’s an excerpt from a Fangraphs scouting report on Ortiz:

“[G]uys with this sort of arm strength don’t come around very often, so he merits close
attention to see what sort of control and consistency he can gain.”

And here’s Baseball Prospectus’ take:

“Ortiz profiles as a power arm in the ‘pen, riding an impressive mid-90s fastball and missing more than a bat per inning. The command is loose and the secondary arsenal needs refinement, but Ortiz is on the fast-track, and looks like a prospect to keep an eye on going forward.”

The problem? Those reports were both filed in 2013, shortly after Ortiz reached High-A for the first time. Five years later, he’s still toiling away in the lower levels.

As is so often the case, one can place the bulk of the blame for this on walks. Ortiz has walked 17 batters so far this year in 13.3 innings, for an ugly WHIP of 2.03. (He’s struck out 22.) Throughout his career, Ortiz carries a 6.9 BB/9, and the last time he pitched more than a few innings above Low-A, his DRA was 9.27 (30 walks and 25 strikeouts in AA, back in 2014).

You probably guessed that the problem is mechanical. Fluid arm action aside, Ortiz struggles to ever repeat the same motion on the mound. His foot never seems to land in the same place twice, and his release point floats around like a balloon. All of this leads to wild inconsistency on a game-to-game basis for Ortiz. One day he’ll implode, like his first outing of the season with the Timber Rattlers (one out recorded on 36 pitches, including two hits, four walks, and three earned runs). A little later on, he’ll get his delivery together and turn in a line that looks like it could have come from Josh Hader (May 17: 1.3 innings pitched, one hit allowed, no walks, each out recorded via strikeout). Occasionally he’ll even showcase the two conflicting versions of himself within the same outing, battling through a bout of minor league Jekyll and Hyde (May 2: One inning pitched, no hits or runs allowed, three walks, two strikeouts, ten total strikes thrown).

Now 26 years old and pitching for his third organization, Ortiz faces a steep climb to so much as a cup of big league coffee; while the Brewers own his rights for the time being, he won’t be cracking their bullpen anytime soon, and even the most experimental rebuilding club will need to see more than a nice number on a radar gun to promote Ortiz past Double-A or thereabouts. The ugly truth of Ortiz’s career is that even the strongest pitcher needs more than velocity and pretty arm action to succeed. And that’s all Ortiz has got.

Almost all, anyway. Scant video evidence suggests a chance at a competent breaking ball. I’d call it a curve, but it could be a slider. There’s also another thing: He’s persistent. Ortiz has been released twice, has dabbled in independent ball, and has pitched at or below Class-A Advanced for six consecutive years. Something keeps him going: an innate belief in himself, or a love for the game, or a desire to taste success and achieve financial security. And who knows? Maybe he’ll put it all together and earn a chance to soak up some low-leverage innings in another couple of years, finally joining players like George Springer and Christian Yelich (both included in that BP scouting report above) in the big leagues. Walks and age aside, his 3.08 DRA this year for Wisconsin looks pretty nice. Stranger things have happened.

Of course, history tells us that those are some pretty long odds. But at this point, Ortiz has worked as a professional baseball player for parts of eight seasons. That’s quite an achievement in and of itself, doubly so when you remember that he wasn’t earning a living wage during that time. I’ll be rooting for him in Carolina, and wherever his road takes him next.

The biggest argument against Taylor, at that point, was his dreadful year in 2016, when the Brewers encouraged him to leverage his swing for more power. Instead of taking a step forward, Taylor slid back to a .232/.303/.327 slash line (.244 TAv). The 9 home runs were a career high, but the .095 ISO and the abandonment of the opposite field still left much to be desired. 2017 was meant to be a chance to right those wrongs, but a series of injuries to his hamstring and oblique limited Taylor to just 32 games. With all the other talent up and down the minor league system, Taylor receded into the shadows, never mind that he opened eyes in the Florida State League at the tender age of 20 three years prior.

2018 has been different. Fortified by the thin air of Triple-A Colorado Springs, Taylor has started the year by hitting the cover off the ball, to the tune of a .308/.352/.508 slash line entering Sunday. He’s striking out in only 12.7 percent of his plate appearances, and he’s back to poking the ball the other way when the mood strikes him. He may be hitting a few more fly balls than usual, but it’s hard to classify that as a conscious decision, the effects of Colorado Springs, or a small sample fluke at this point. In any case, the results have been tremendous.

There are, of course, the usual caveats associated with offensive stats at Colorado Springs. One still wonders about Taylor’s ability to recognize and punish breaking balls, for instance—he started to struggle with that aspect of his game in Biloxi, and the flattened-out sliders of Colorado Springs are toothless compared to the sharp bite of, say, a Corey Kluber special. And while Taylor’s .200 Isolated Slugging (ISO) is very strong (easily the strongest of his career, should he keep it up over the full season), the league average ISO in the Pacific Coast League is a robust .154. Among the Sky Sox, who play half of their games in the clouds, that number ticks up to .162. Taylor is patient enough, but he still doesn’t walk much (7.0 percent in 2018, 6.9 percent for his career). And by Baseball Prospectus TAv, his gaudy slash line still only translates to a .259 TAv, or right smack on the nose of league average, in other words. (It’s worth pointing out that other metrics are a little kinder to Taylor’s work this year, as wRC+ has him at a solid 118.)

Taylor’s no slouch on the other side of the ball. He’s spent time at all three outfield slots in 2018 and is capable of manning each position with at least average competency. His above-average speed is an asset in center (and has helped him thieve five bases in six tries this season), but he’s unlikely to set Statcast on fire with elite sprint speeds or five-star catches. The arm is fine for right field, though not exactly a weapon.

In summary: The bat could be “meh” for a corner, unless the Colorado Springs power gains stick around, and the glove could be “meh” for center. Nonetheless, the hit tool and approach are solid, and the rest of his game is sufficiently well-rounded. Taylor’s back to looking like he could provide league-average-or-a-tick-above production in spite of any deficiencies; at the very least, he could bloom into an extremely valuable fourth outfielder.

From a certain point of view, Taylor’s big performance so far this year isn’t too surprising. He’s always flashed high-level potential on the diamond, but he was also known as a standout running back when the Brewers drafted him out of high school in 2012. There’s a narrative around two-sport athletes suggesting that they’re slow to develop once they finally commit to one sport over the other. Taylor had never focused on baseball year-round before starting his professional career, and was a little raw compared to the talent at the top of his draft class. He spent the first few seasons of his professional career dismantling that particular narrative, but it caught up with him in 2015 at Double-A, which is arguably the level at which elite athleticism is no longer able to mask flaws in approach or swing. The injuries buried him even further, costing a year and condemning him to the list of forgotten prospects. And yet here he is, raking at Triple-A in 2018, close to where you’d have guessed he’d be by now, had you seen him play on draft day six years ago.

Only 24, Taylor is young enough to absorb a lost season and still crack the 25-man roster at a reasonable age. He’s got a long line of outfielders currently positioned in front of him. Ryan Braun, Lorenzo Cain, Christian Yelich, Domingo Santana, Brett Phillips, and Keon Broxton are the obvious hurdles, with guys like Kyle Wren and Quintin Berry representing possible obstacles standing between Taylor and a September call-up. But odds are good that one or two of those won’t be wearing Brewers (or Sky Sox) blue in a year, including, possibly, Taylor himself. For now, he’s staked down a future spot on the 40-man roster and is back on his way to earning a shot. That’s a mighty leap for a player to take in a year; time will tell how far Taylor can continue to fly.

I first profiled Jankins for BP Milwaukee last summer, towards the end of his breakout campaign in Appleton with the Timber Rattlers. In his first full season as a professional, the now soon-to-be 23 year old compiled a 3.62 ERA and a sterling 55 DRA- across 141.2 innings, accompanied by a 121:32 K/BB ratio and 55 percent ground ball rate. The organization was so taken with his performance that the decision was made to skip Jankins over the Carolina League entirely and assign him straight to the starting rotation in Double-A Biloxi to start the 2018 season. So far, Jankins hasn’t appeared overwhelmed by the significant jump in competition; it’s been quite the opposite, in fact. After his most recent start on Wednesday, a performance of 6.3 shutout innings in a win against the Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp, Jankins owns a 2.03 ERA through an even 31.0 innings with 26 punchouts against just seven free passes. Pitching wins don’t mean much, especially at the minor league level, but according to Shuckers’ broadcaster Garrett Greene, Jankins is the first hurler in team history to record a victory in his each of his first five starts.

I recently had the opportunity to catch up with Thomas Jankins about his career so far and what the future may hold:

Kyle Lesniewski: You were chosen by Milwaukee in the 13th round out of Quinnipiac University in 2016. Can you describe what that process was like?

Thomas Jankins: Getting drafted in 2016 was a dream come true for me. It was something that I had set as a legitimate goal for myself when I entered college and to achieve it was a special feeling. I was very fortunate to have such great teammates and coaches around me during my time at Quinnipiac, and I was able to develop my skills to a point where I felt like I was ready to compete at the next level. The Brewers were certainly among the teams that were interested at the time, so when they called in the 13th round it wasn’t a huge surprise. If I could go back and redo the process I might have changed my expectations for the draft so that I could have enjoyed the experience a little more. I honestly thought I was going to get picked earlier, but I think it was a humbling and motivating experience for me to go through. In the end, hearing your name called in any round means that you are going to get an opportunity and that’s all you can ever ask for. The only thing that went into my decision to forgo my senior year was that I promised my parents that I would eventually finish my degree. Thankfully, with the help of the Brewers, I have been able to finish my Bachelor’s degree in my first two off seasons which I’m extremely proud of.

KL: How has the transition to pro ball gone? What’s life like for a minor leaguer drafted in the later rounds?

TJ: The transition has certainly been one that has been filled with constant adjustments. From being a person that hadn’t left New England much in my life to living and playing in new places like Montana, Wisconsin, Arizona and Mississippi there were times early on where it felt a little overwhelming. I’m very lucky to have a great support system in family and friends who have helped me along the way and I’ve also learned to embrace the constant changes that most minor leaguers face. As far as being a later round draft pick, I try not to let that define me as a player. The Brewers are a tremendous organization in the amount of resources they dedicate to us as players, and I try to take advantage of that as much as I can. They also have shown that they are less concerned with what round you were picked in once you step foot between the lines, which is encouraging to us players because we understand it’s up to us to perform and advance our own careers.

KL: You’re from a cold weather climate and your school has produced only one major leaguer. Because of that, some scouting outlets saw you as sort of a “raw” prospect with untapped upside that could be unlocked in the pro ranks. What adjustments/improvements has the organization encouraged you to make since coming to Milwaukee?

TJ: I’m not sure “raw” would be the best way I would describe myself at the time but there were certainly a number of improvements in my game that had to be made. Consistency was a major theme in my first season as I had to learn what it meant to prepare at the professional level. Cleaning up my delivery, especially out of the stretch was a step I took in that first year to have more consistent stuff every time I took the mound. I think my second season was about me establishing my identity as a pitcher, there were certainly some bumps and bruises along the way but there were also many valuable lessons learned. I believe moving forward, I have a much better understanding of the player I have to become to be successful at the major league level.

KL: You were successful last season in Appleton, and the Brewers took the unconventional step of skipping you over Carolina and assigned you straight to Double-A in Biloxi. How did that conversation go, were you surprised by the assignment? Does it feel like a vote of confidence from the organization?

TJ: I came into spring training this year trying not to have any expectation of where I would be playing this season. In the past, I have let things like team assignments that are outside of my control have too much of an effect on my performance and this year I was trying to simplify my approach. I just knew that I was going to compete and train as hard as I could to give myself the best opportunity to make a team. When I learned I was assigned to Biloxi, I wouldn’t say I was surprised because I expect a lot out of myself but I knew that it was up to me to show that it wasn’t a mistake. The organization showed that they believed in me to handle it and I believed I could as well, it was just about using my preparation and knowledge from previous seasons as tools to help me make the jump.

KL: Can you provide a self scouting report? How do you like to attack hitters?

TJ: I would describe myself as pretty typical sinker ball pitcher. My velocity is not overwhelming so I have to rely on movement and control to manipulate hitters into swinging at the pitches I want them too. I think I am fairly aggressive in the way I attack hitters which often leads to early count contact, I’m a big believer in the 3 pitches or less mindset on the mound. My goal every game is to try and get into the 7th inning. I try to induce as many ground balls as I can using my sinker, and use my changeup and slider as more swing and miss type pitches. When my slider is on, I think it is my best pitch and hopefully the consistency with it continues to improve. Currently, I am working on using a cutter and hopefully that can become a major weapon for me down the road.

KL: What are your goals for this season and for your career? What strengths will carry Thomas Jankins to the major leagues?

TJ: My goals for the season are to develop a consistent 4th pitch that I can use while still making improvements on my other 3 offerings. Every year I also strive to lead the team in innings. I hope to continue to mature in how I handle both success and failure as I think I have a better understanding of the pacing of a full season after going through my first one last year. My goal for my career is to be a starting pitcher at the major league level, I certainly have a long way to go in my development but I believe I have what it takes to get there someday. I think one of my biggest strengths is self-awareness, I have a good grasp on the things that make me successful on the mound and also understand the many things I need to improve on. If I can continue to polish up the things I struggle with while maintaining who I am, I think that’s a pretty good recipe for success.

AAA Colorado Springs Sky Sox
Who to Watch: The pitchers. Good news for those who distrust the Brewers’ current starting rotation: Help is on the way! The bad news is that said help is pitching at elevation, in conditions which have caused more than one pitcher to lose their feel for a breaking ball. Still, the fact that the organization has top prospects Corbin Burnes and Freddy Peralta awaiting a call in Colorado is in itself exciting. After coaxing Brandon Woodruff and Josh Hader through limited reps at Colorado Springs last season, there’s a template in place that could have Burnes and Peralta each recording big league outs as soon as the middle of the year. Both have potential to flourish as mid-rotation starters, with Burnes possessing both a higher ceiling and floor. But Peralta is no slouch; he should at least have impact potential as a reliever, and could wind up as a bullpen ace if the starting rotation isn’t his long-term home.

Perhaps the most exciting thing about the Sky Sox pitching staff is its depth. Burnes and Peralta are the top two names, but Junior Guerra and Wade Miley will make big league starts this year, and Brandon Woodruff is due back in Milwaukee any minute. Meanwhile, Jorge López is back in Colorado Springs to exorcise some personal demons two years after a disastrous turn for the Sky Sox tanked his prospect stock. Even if his path to the big leagues now lies through the bullpen, there’s plenty of reason to believe in his arm. If the big league staff stumbles, the call-ups could come in thick and fast.

Honorable Mention: Jacob Nottingham has quietly improved behind the plate to the point that he should be able to handle a big league staff. Take a peek behind his uninspiring slash line for Biloxi last year (.209/.326/.369), and you’ll see that he was actually a hair above league average with the stick last year by advanced metrics like TAv and wRC+. If he can continue to produce at that offensive rate (he’s off to a good start through his first few games), there’s plenty of reason to think that he’ll at least be able to hold down a job as a big league backup as early as next year.

AA Biloxi Shuckers
Who to Watch: The outfield. Corey Ray and Trent Grisham are the most familiar names here, but Troy Stokes, Jr. turned the most heads last year, reaching AA for the first time and posting a strong .279 TAv through 153 plate appearances. Stokes is a 5’8” right-handed hitter with good speed and some surprising pop. He’ll need to work on his barrel control and cut back on popups to take the next step.

The extraordinarily patient Grisham will watch his share of pitches sale by (his 98 walks were second in the minors last year), but when he does swing he uses his whole body to whip the bat through the plate at incredible speed. The hit tool needs to progress, but he’s got an elite eye and heaps of potential.

Meanwhile, Corey Ray struck out ten times in his first twenty at-bats, but still flashes the tools that made him a fifth-overall draft pick in 2016.

Honorable Mention: Kodi Medeiros is probably headed for a relief role in the majors, but the Brewers will keep developing him as a starter as long as they can. His funky delivery and low arm slot are hell on same-sided batters, albeit less so for those with the platoon advantage. Medeiros still has that wipeout slider that turned heads in high school, and he’s finally learning how to locate it. With a little more consistency, he could shoot up the fast track and into the big league ‘pen.

A+ Carolina Mudcats
Who to Watch: Keston Hiura, obviously. He’s off to a slow start (1-15, 5 Ks in 16 plate appearances) but there’s little doubt that he’s going to hit…and hit and hit. Unless his elbow implodes and necessitates surgery, Hiura stands a strong chance to taste Biloxi by mid-summer. Most don’t expect him in the majors until late 2019 at the earliest, but blue-chip prospects have a knack for setting their own timelines as they climb the organizational rungs.

Honorable Mention: Left-handed hurler Nathan Kirby, whose elbow actually did implode a few years back, is healthy for the first time since 2015. Back in college, he wowed scouts with a nifty fastball and two strong secondary pitches. Now 24 years old, he’s rebuilding his arm strength in Carolina and making up for lost time. If it all clicks and Kirby stays healthy, he could vault himself back to top-prospect status in a hurry.

A- Wisconsin Timber Rattlers
Who to Watch: Tristen Lutz is going to hit a lot of home runs. The Brewers grabbed Lutz with the 34th overall pick last summer, and word is that they were considering him at number nine, too. He’s a Texan, just out of high school, and he tore through the rookie leagues last summer. The folks at FanGraphs tabbed Lutz as the #68 overall prospect entering the season thanks to his light-tower raw power and elite exit velocities. He could be a Corey Hart-type force in the heart of the lineup, with plenty of arm for right field.

Honorable Mention: Catchers KJ Harrison (third rounder in 2017) and Payton Henry (sixth rounder in 2016) are variations on the same theme. Both are good-hitting catchers with pop. They’re also both very raw receivers, and it’s conceivable that both could get pushed out from behind the dish to first base or possibly left field, where they’d need the bats to play in order to retain much value. But if even one of them makes some defensive strides without slipping on offense, the crop of young catchers on the farm will start to look very appealing.