Although collusion would obviously have a significant impact, there are also rational reasons for the veteran free agent market to deteriorate.  Teams have realized that players signed into their mid- to late-30s are bad investments, so they are relying more on younger players to fill roster spots.  Additionally, since the average age of rookies now is 24.6 and thus players don’t hit free agency until they are through their peak years, teams can keep control of these players through their most productive years.  Then, when players become free agents, the next batch of rookies takes those spots.

This is a problem for the players, though, because free agency has always provided the promise of a payday.  Players earn the league minimum salary for their first three years regardless of production, and then they enter arbitration. In arbitration they get more money, but not their market rate.  For example, Kris Bryant has just become arbitration-eligible, and he will be making the most money ever for a first-year arbitration-eligible player: $10.85 million.  By contrast, the Blue Jays signed veteran Jaime Garcia, he of the career 95 cFIP, for $10 million.  One of the ten best position players in baseball will earn roughly the same as a league-average starting pitcher.

Baseball’s system has generally worked because players like Bryant knew they would receive a massive free agent contract after they exhausted their six years of team control.  But if teams stop rewarding players for past performance, then the best players in baseball will never get paid what they deserve.  This is a threat to the balance between players and ownership, and this article will present a possible alternative method.

Any analysis like this requires a certain set of assumptions.  I am assuming here that the MLBPA is interested in maximizing the money their members make (which may not be entirely fair, given the way veterans control union power).  I am also assuming that owners would be willing to pay market value for players who are more likely to perform over the life of the contract (which may not be fair if what we are witnessing is collusion).

With that being said, a system like the NBA’s restricted free agency seems to make sense for baseball as well.  After an NBA player’s fourth season, he becomes a restricted free agent.  Other teams can sign that player to an offer sheet, but the player’s current team has the right to match that contract.  The advantages of such a system are that teams still retain control over their young players, but players are eligible for a large payday much sooner in their careers.  Kris Bryant, for example, could be a restricted free agent at 27 instead of an unrestricted free agent at 30, and so a longer-term contract would make sense because some of his prime years are still in front of him.

This system would not be perfect.  Players still have to be under team control for long enough that a team feels comfortable investing in player development.  Free agency after one year, for example, would likely harm player development because teams would not be guaranteed any reward.  Additionally, this system would still be subject to the type of age manipulation that we currently see.  Teams can hold players down to get more of their prime years in the current system, and the same would be true for any new system as well.  MLB’s minor league system complicates matters, as MLB teams have direct control over when the service time clock begins.

It also would not translate directly from how the NBA does it.  The NBA’s maximum salary is not mirrored in baseball, as teams have cost certainty for their young players even once they have hit free agency.  This does not exist in baseball; Bryce Harper could sign for $30 million per year next offseason if he wants a ten-year contract, or he could sign for $40 million per year if he takes a shorter deal.  The Washington Wizards, on the other hand, knew that they would be paying Otto Porter about $25 million this season because that was the most he could be offered.

Another problem with the NBA’s restricted free agency is that it allows teams to keep players for nine years before they hit free agency.  NBA players generally make their debut at 19 or 20, so they still have productive years ahead of them when they finally hit the open market.  But because baseball players debut so much older, this system would not allow players to switch teams in their primes.  Tweaks would have to be made.

One of the most important tweaks would have to be to the timing of restricted free agency offers.  In the NBA, teams make offers to players, and then the player’s original team has three days to decide whether or not to match.  In that time, the offering team’s money and roster spot are tied up.  This creates logistical problems, where teams know that any offer to a star player will be matched, so they don’t bother making it and instead maintain flexibility.

I have a couple ideas about how MLB could fix this.  First, the MLB could provide a buffer for teams who sign restricted free agents to sort out their 40-man roster situation, so teams wouldn’t have to be stuck in a holding pattern for three days.  They could sign a restricted free agent to an offer sheet and then have a week before they need to officially add him to their 40-man roster.  Second, they could shorten the matching time to just one day to provide less uncertainty for teams.

Third, and most radically, they could have a special restricted free agency window before unrestricted free agency.  During this time, offers would be made, but no other transactions would occur, so teams would not risk losing out on other opportunities while they wait for everyone to decide whether or not to match.  This would create some roster-building issues, as teams would be operating with imperfect information during this first window.  The NFL does this with its draft, however: football teams draft for need at times, but the draft occurs before free agency has opened.  The NFL does not appear to have suffered for this, so it seems as if it would be workable in MLB as well.

The types of contract being offered would be the most interesting aspect, and it is the test for whether such a system would actually solve the problem that we appear to be facing.  My proposal is that after three years in the majors, players would hit restricted free agency.  At that time, all teams would be free to offer those players whatever contract they want.  I think the lack of a maximum salary would remove the “automatic match” problem from all but the absolute top players.

Let’s use Kris Bryant as an example again.  After next season, anyone could offer him a new contract.  Teams may offer him a long-term deal, or they could try and entice him with a high-AAV short-term contract.  The Cubs would have the absolute right to match any offer that is made, though.  The main difference between the current system and my proposal is the player’s age: Bryant would be a free agent at 27 instead of 30, so he will be a more attractive option for many teams.  But because the Cubs still have the chance to match any contract, or offer him a long-term extension before he even hits free agency, they do not lose their access to their young talent.  They just have to pay him more.

This would bring a new level of intrigue to free agency.  Without a maximum salary, the Cubs would not have cost certainty.  Any team could try and find the price point at which the Cubs wouldn’t match; could it be $50 million per season?  Rivals like the Brewers could also force the Cubs’ hand by offering Bryant an over-market deal that is still reasonable enough that the Cubs would feel compelled to match (perhaps at $40 million per season?).  Where NBA restricted free agency can be rote because of max contracts, MLB restricted free agency likely would not be.

Another possibility would be that restricted free agency offers could only be for a maximum of four years.  This would still allow a team to try and offer a ridiculous one-year contract for someone like Bryant or Mike Trout, but it would provide some more certainty for both the team and the player.  Players would know that they will hit unrestricted free agency at no more than seven years after their debut, but they would have an opportunity to make more money before then.

I recognize that a possible problem with this is that it might allow big-market teams to exert their financial influence.  With more desirable free agents, the Cubs, Dodgers, Yankees, and Red Sox might be more involved and more able to spend their way to a title.  Small-market teams would have less of an ability to develop their own cores because they would only be guaranteed three years of big league service time instead of six.  Big-market teams would be able to absorb contracts that small-market teams just couldn’t.  For example, the Yankees could offer Orlando Arcia a contract that the Brewers couldn’t afford to match, simply because the Yankees can afford to absorb more money if the contract turns out to be a mistake.

With that being said, financial constraints are always a question.  Big-market teams have resource advantages over small-market teams, but that hasn’t prevented St. Louis or Cleveland from being competitive.  I suppose it’s possible that this is the change that destroys baseball’s relative parity, but I am skeptical that it would do so given that such hand-wringing never seems to pan out.  The lack of a salary cap did not result in the Yankees buying every World Series; they won their four in five years on the strength of a home-grown core.  Teams are smart, and I expect that small-market teams will be able to adapt to this change just as they have adapted to other ones.

This would be a radical alteration to baseball’s free agency structure, but if teams refuse to sign free agents who are over 30 to market-value deals, then something will need to change.  The players are what drive the product, and they are entitled to their share of the profits.  If they are not going to be rewarded in free agency under the current system, then a new system will have to be devised.

That should be fun. And once it’s over, on the morning of Thursday, December 14, there’s the Rule 5 Draft. Few things are so absurd and delightful. As everyone is packing their bags and returning to the regularly-scheduled offseason, teams will quietly pay $100,00 to try to steal another team’s prospect. The catch: Said prospect must stay on the purchasing team’s 25-man roster for the duration of the following MLB season, or he’ll be offered back to their original organization for $50,000.

Unsurprisingly, most Rule 5 selections don’t pan out, and results like Colin Walsh’s .085 batting average in 2016 or Wei-Chung Wang’s 10.90 ERA in 2014 are the norm. But every now and then, there’s an Odubel Herrera or a Joe Biagini or even a Johan Santana sprinkled in among the roster filler to keep things tantalizing.

The Brewers have the 21st selection in this year’s Rule 5 draft. David Stearns and the rest of the Brewers front office will have to dig deep to find an impact talent. Happily, there are plenty of intriguing names available in this year’s draft-eligible class. Here are a few of my favorites.

Travis Ott, LHP, Tampa Bay Rays
Ott, a 6’4” lefty with an exaggerated leg kick who turns 23 in June, is one of a handful of interesting Rays prospects left exposed by a 40-man roster crunch. Formerly property of the Washington Nationals, Ott arrived in Tampa along with Steven Souza Jr. in the three-team trade that netted the Nats Trea Turner and sent Wil Myers to San Diego.

The Rays have been slow to move Ott up the ladder. The lefty spent all of 2015 and 2016 in Class-A ball before reaching Class-A Advanced Charlotte last season. Ott slings a fringy, low-90s fastball across his body from a 3/4 slot, but there’s enough projection left on his frame to hope that the heater kicks up a few ticks. Of his secondaries, a mid-70s curveball flashes more potential than his changeup or slider. Across 118 innings and two levels last year, Ott struck out 132. His career ERA in the minor leagues is 2.72, and he worked to a 67.4 DRA- in Charlotte. It’s not the most electric profile, but there could be a big league arm in there and lefty relief options are always popular come Rule 5 time.

Adam Cimber, RHP, San Diego Padres
At 27 years old, Cimber is no longer a conventional prospect. On the other hand, he just recorded a 21.0 strikeout percentage against a negligible 3.2 walk percentage in AAA. His 55 percent groundball rate was nothing to sneeze at, either. Cimber utilizes an uncommon sidearm delivery, whipping the ball to the plate from the vicinity of his kneecaps. His command profile alone makes him worthy of a look in Spring Training. After all, playing for Milwaukee could be Cimber’s destiny; his first grade teacher was named Mrs. Brewer.

Nick Burdi, RHP, Minnesota Twins
A second-round pick in 2014, Burdi pitched just 17 innings in 2017 before undergoing Tommy John surgery. The year prior, a bone bruise brought about by a high-stress delivery limited the promising hurler to just three appearances.

Still, Burdi’s fragile arm possesses elite upside. In the past, he’s thrown a dominant fastball that can touch triple digits and hard, plus slider that’s been clocked as high as the mid-90s. Though iffy command further clouds his future, he could become a potent bullpen arm if his elbow doesn’t spontaneously combust. In any case, Burdi’s recovery is likely to eat deep into the 2018 season.

Nick Ciuffo, C, Tampa Bay Rays
Ciuffo was a first-round pick for the Rays in 2013. While he hasn’t hit as hoped, it still isn’t difficult to see why the Rays thought so highly of the budding backstop. He’s an advanced defender with viable receiving skills and a plus arm (he’s thrown out 42 percent of would-be base stealers throughout his minor league career).

Dig a little deeper, and the struggles with the stick don’t seem quite so worrisome, either. In 2014, Ciuffo dropped weight while battling a virus. His offensive production lagged, and it’s conceivable that his mechanics got out of whack while his body recovered. He’s always had a good eye, and ran a .266 TAv in AA last year as a 22-year-old catcher. Better still, Ciuffo got stronger as the season wore on. From July 1 through the season’s end, he batted .279/.368/.424 with 15 doubles and 25 walks against 33 strikeouts over 190 plate appearances.

Ciuffo is a much surer thing to stick behind the plate than fellow catcher Max Pentecost, who will likely be gone by the time the Brewers make their first selection. If Stearns and company trust Manny Piña to handle everyday duties behind the dish, Ciuffo could slide onto the roster in place of Stephen Vogt and soak up Piña’s thirteen-plus years of catching expertise.

Travis Demeritte, IF, Atlanta Braves
The Brewers have a need at second base, and Demeritte, a first-round pick of the Rangers in 2013, offers an interesting blend of risk and reward. On the “reward” side, Demeritte is a slick defender at both second and third base equipped with plus raw power and a keen eye for walks.

Then there’s the risk. A positive test for performance enhancing drugs in 2015 took some of the luster off Demeritte’s rising star. He also has a long swing. 2017 was his first full professional season with a strikeout rate below 30 percent. Additionally, Demeritte hit just .231 for a .267 TAv last year in Class-AA ball. Contact issues aside, the collection of average-or-better tools could at least turn the 23-year-old Demeritte into a valuable utility man with uncommon pop.

Victor Reyes, OF, Arizona Diamondbacks
Rule 5-eligible for the second year in a row, the 23-year-old Reyes is an average runner with a decent glove and a serviceable arm. A switch-hitter, he’s a career .298 batter in the minors thanks to a smooth, line-drive swing that generates lots of contact. He doesn’t walk a ton, but he doesn’t strike out much, either. Last year in AA, he turned in a characteristic .292/.332/.399 batting line.

That all sounds like a typical fourth outfielder, and Reyes might be just that. But if he develops his lagging power, he has a chance to be much more. Good news on that front: Reyes whacked 29 doubles last year, easily a career high. If he continues to make strides in that department, he could blossom into a regular corner outfielder who can play center in a pinch. His swing and approach give him perhaps the best chance of any player on this list to actually hit major league pitching next season.

Jason Martin, OF, Houston Astros
Martin offers a rare Rule 5 opportunity: Five tools that could be average or better. He features a compact left-handed swing that he uses to spray line drives across the field. The power is coming along, as Martin has posted back-to-back years of Isolated Slugging over .200 and his 18 home runs across Class-A Advanced and AA last year were joined by 35 doubles and 5 triples.

On the defensive side of the spectrum, Martin’s routes in the outfield could use refinement and some extra zip to his throwing arm would ease worries about his long-term home. Tighten the routes and he could be an everyday centerfielder. Otherwise, he could be a fringe-regular in left.

Big league pitching may be a problem for Martin at first, as his move to AA last year was accompanied by a spike in strikeouts and a precipitous drop in walks. On the plus side, Martin played most of last season as a 21-year-old. He has plenty of time to adjust.

The point is, it doesn’t require a lot of convincing to say the Brewers’ pursuit of Ohtani is a good idea. MLB.com columnist Jon Paul Morosi speculated after speaking to team executives that Ohtani is looking to hit and pitch, and that may give the AL an advantage to promise that he’d be able to DH on at least some of his non-pitching days. It’s a logical conclusion, but in a market where almost all teams are going to submit proposals and giving Ohtani their best pitch, maybe National League teams like the Brewers can zig where others zag.

Surely if being a two-way player is important to Ohtani, there’s a solid case to be made that the AL offers him that opportunity. He can pitch and on off-days serve as the DH without significant injury risk in the field. But, and before I say this let me remind you that I purchased in-flight wifi on the Ohtani bandwagon and have downloaded multiple seasons of Black Mirror because I’m here for the long haul…, what if he’s bad at hitting?

How long would an AL team let Ohtani continue to go up and swing the bat if he struggles at the plate? It’s not exactly a stretch to say a 23 year old making his first appearance in the majors would struggle over his first few months in the league. It is not difficult to imagine that if a hitter in the DH spot hit like, well, a pitcher, there would be some point at which a team would abandon that experiment.

Enter our Milwaukee Brewers.

Perhaps the best sales pitch to convince Ohtani to sign doesn’t involve David Stearns laying out what would happen if he’s terrible. I’ll grant you that.

Instead, the Brewers could focus on maximizing Ohtani’s future earnings potential as a two-way player, by letting him know that he’s going to get time to develop and adjust at the plate. He’s going to hit on days when he pitches, no matter how he performs at the plate in the early going. The Brewers had exactly one starting pitcher with a TAv over .200, and how many of them were in danger of losing plate appearances on days they pitched? None!

Then, you would tell Ohtani, he’ll have every chance to get low-leverage plate appearances as he learns MLB pitchers and the strike zone as a batter. Once he’s ready he’ll have the chance to pinch-hit, and once he’s comfortable with that, you’ll look to make him a bench regular. All while still hitting every day he’s on the mound.

This alleviates the problem of guaranteeing plate appearances, which AL teams that are proposing a DH role are almost certainly committing themselves to for an unknown amount of time. It also sells Ohtani on the idea that the team is looking for his best opportunity to succeed and grow and develop in the majors, and then maximize his earnings potential as a two-way player down the road.

It’s a risky strategy to be sure, and Ohtani may very well just be looking for the greatest number of plate appearances he can get or be reasonably guaranteed. But the Brewers and other NL teams shouldn’t overlook the possibility of selling what sets their league and teams apart, and that includes the lowered expectations of a pitcher hitting.

Despite this uncharacteristic inactivity from teams across the league, the rumor mill is spinning. The destinations of the two biggest game changers presumed to be moved, Shohei Ohtani and Giancarlo Stanton, has yet to be determined.

The uncertainty surrounding Ohtani and Stanton has created a gridlock throughout the league. Even though the Brewers are not rumored to be on the forefront for either player, the ripples that these two huge pieces create leaves the team stuck playing the waiting game.

All 30 teams are pitching themselves to Ohtani. No team can offer him more than $3.6 million, and Ohtani’s camp has all but ruled out the importance of money in his decision. In other words, every team has hope. Not only are the Brewers preparing their pitch for the Japanese superstar, in hopes he will pick the beautiful city of Milwaukee, but so are the 29 other clubs. Rather than focusing their attention on what, in a normal offseason, would be free agency and the trade market, teams are left dreaming on Ohtani.

Ohtani’s unique skill set can also completely transform the roster of whichever team he chooses. Teams are going to be reluctant to make a move before Ohtani’s decision due to simple roster dynamics. If Ohtani can be your ace reliever/starting left fielder three or four days a week, then there is no reason to fill those holes before Ohtani makes his much-anticipated decision.

Even if the Brewers were told they had no shot at Ohtani, which they haven’t been told, the gridlock would continue. Free agent pitchers such as Jake Arrieta and Yu Darvish would be foolish to sign before the Ohtani decision. Whichever teams lose out will likely immediately turn their attention to frontline free agents such as Arrieta and Darvish. We can assume the Brewers are in serious talks with both Arrieta and Darvish, and yet the gridlock would continue due to the Ohtani factor.

On top of Ohtani’s presence, is what seems to be an inevitable Giancarlo Stanton trade. The four teams rumored to be in on Stanton, the Los Angeles Dodgers, San Francisco Giants, Boston Red Sox, and St. Louis Cardinals, are some of the largest markets in the league. All four figure to be a big part of the free agent market if they lose out on Stanton.

Stanton’s monstrous contract would deem whichever team acquires him all but finished as far as the free agent market goes. Because these four teams are dreaming on Stanton, they are staying out of free agency until the Miami Marlins finally make a move. By essentially taking these four big-market teams out of free agency until Stanton is moved, free agents are left waiting to see who the losers are so they can join the market.

The Brewers are not exactly in the market for Stanton either. But players that they are in the market for, possibly Darvish or Arrieta, are going to wait to see if big-market teams, such as the Dodgers or Giants, join the hunt for big-name pitchers in lieu of losing out on Stanton.

The Brewers are stuck in the middle. They are no longer rebuilding. They figure to be a major player in this offseasons activity. Despite their position, they are essentially uninvolved with Ohtani and Stanton, which in turn leaves them out of any early activity.

Once these two important dominos fall, the logjam should clear for teams like the Brewers to step in. Free agents don’t normally prefer to go into January, and definitely not February, without a home. Moves are going to be made quickly. Hopefully, a month or two from now, we’ll be looking back on this offseason as one of the most active offseasons in recent Brewer history.

Photo Credit: Jason Vinlove, USAToday Sports Images