Related Article:
2016 Southern League bats

So we continue with the Pacific Coast League variation of the contextual minor league statistics for Milwaukee Brewers prospects. I began this series in order to judge each player within his own age group within his own league, in order to keep players in groups that are more likely to fit their own developmental standpoints. For instance, Orlando Arcia ought not to be judged on the same scale as a Garin Cecchini or Will Middlebrooks, two players with MLB experience that are receiving a second chance in the Brewers organization; while those two might be judged moreso on their ability to get back into the grove and produce quality outcomes on the plate, a prospect at Arcia’s age and developmental standpoint may be more likely to work on improving one specific aspect of his game. In fact, for his age-21 season, Arcia completely shifted his strike zone discipline, improving his walk rate significantly, while also striking out more; for all the complaints about the rookie’s slow-rising batting line and .212 TAv, Arcia is already posting a walk rate that has hovered around 10 percent since leaping to the majors. So, a project such as “improving plate discipline” could help to explain why other areas of Arcia’s bat “took a step back” in 2016.

Not unlike the Southern League, a wide variety of professional ballplayers work in the Pacific Coast League. Many second-chance MLB players work in the most advanced minor league level, giving the Pacific Coast League the look of an organizational depth association. Yet, a few supremely young players rush through, and there are even organizational depth players that remain young for AAA (such as Garrett Cooper, for instance, who is “old” for AA and “young” for AAA).

Not surprisingly, isolating players with more than 5 PA, there are many different performance levels, age-by-age, on the Pacific Coast:

While it does not necessarily seem surprising that the youngest players in the league lack slugging numbers, or overall offensive performances that match the general impression that the PCL is a “free-for-all,” it was surprising to see how quickly the slugging tails off after age-25. Slugging percentage jumps once more at age-27, but then players working in the PCL between age-28 and age-35 seasons generally do not provide large slugging totals for their work. Hypothetically, one might guess that if a player is at age-28 and slugging effectively, they get their chance to work at the MLB level, while glovemen or bat-control depth guys are more likely to work their late-20s seasons at AAA; this is only one possible explanation.

By my count, the Brewers organization featured 15 players at AAA Colorado Springs that had rookie status entering the year. The vast majority of these players were young or relatively young for Class-AAA ball.

A few notes:

• Without any regular age-19 or -20 bats in the Pacific Coast League, Arcia was basically tied for the youngest regular position player in the league (with Padres’ top prospect, Manuel Margot, who had one of the best seasons in the entire PCL).

• Contrary to popular belief, Arcia showed excellent discipline and excellent isolated power for his age group.

• Garrett Cooper had a surprisingly good batting line, which I did not expect given my assumption that older players would be held to harsher performance criteria at AAA.

• Lewis Brinson really stormed the league in his Brewers debut!

• While Brewers fans commonly focused on his MLB struggles, Keon Broxton put together a great AAA campaign, even (especially?) for the league’s median age.

• Kyle Wren did nothing but hit in 2016, but he lacks isolated power behind his strong AVG and OBP totals. One wonders whether he’ll get his MLB shot in Milwaukee, given the stacked tools situated in the crowded Brewers outfield.

• Garin Cecchini produced a solid line for his age group, although the slugging did not come for the second-chance rookie. Cecchini could potentially profile as a contact-discipline depth player, but the lack of power could hurt a corner-defense profile.

• BPMilwaukee featured Nate Orf as one of the Three-Up players at midseason, given his batting profile and utility glove. Hopefully Orf makes it to the MLB!

• One wonders whether Yadiel Rivera and Ramon Flores will stick around in the organization for their respective gloves; unfortunately, their bats did not come around in 2016.

Top Play (WPA):
In the sixth inning, the Brewers were up 3-2. Chase Anderson, at this point, was out of the game after pitching 5 innings and giving up two runs. In the top half of the inning, Corey Knebel did his job and worked a 1-2-3 sixth inning.

The Brewers then came to bat in the bottom of the sixth. The first hitter was Kirk Nieuwenhuis, who singled on a line drive to right field. Hernan Perez was the next batter, and he grounded a ball to third base. Nieuwenhuis was out at second, but Perez was able to reach first base on a fielder’s choice. The following batter was Ramon Flores. Flores singled to center field, putting runners on first and second with nobody out.

Braden Shipley was making his major league debut. He threw his fastball in the mid to low 90s, and a curveball with a lot of movement. Pitching in your major league debut can be hard. Many pitchers are very nervous and don’t always bring their best stuff, sometimes overwhelmed by the moment.

This might have happened in this game. The Diamondbacks coaching staff also didn’t do him any favors. Shipley was shaky from the get-go and after giving up these two hits it would have been a wise move to take him out of the game. Hell, they probably should have taken him out after Nieuwenhuis led off the inning with a single.

But, no, the Diamondbacks kept him in the game and on the first pitch of the at-bat, Martin Maldonado crushed Shipley’s curveball into the stands.

This gave the Brewers a six to two lead and put the game out of reach.

Bottom Play (WPA):
In the fourth inning, the Diamondbacks scored to tie the game at two apiece. Following that, in the fifth inning the Diamondbacks were threatening to take the lead after the Brewers were unable to score in the bottom half of the fourth.

The inning didn’t start off poorly, as Anderson got Segura to ground out. Then trouble ensued. Phil Gosselin singled on a line drive to center field. Then, Paul Goldschmidt singled as well, putting runners on first and third with only one out.

At this point in the game, the Diamondbacks had a 59 percent win expectancy. Basically, they had a 59 percent chance of winning the game. The next hitter was also Jake Lamb, who’s having a breakout year. Anderson was starting to come apart. He was able to get Lamb to swing and miss at the first offering, but then proceeded to throw three straight balls, putting him in an even bigger hole. However, Anderson battled back. He was able to throw a strike and get the count to three and two. On the three and two offering, Anderson was able to get Lamb to swing and miss, getting the much needed second out of the inning.

Anderson was then able to get Rickie Weeks, Jr. to pop up on the infield, allowing the Brewers to escape the jam.

Key Moment:
After Maldonado hit his home run, Andy Wilkins came up to the plate. Wilkins, a player who I had never heard of before this season, is a 27-year-old journeyman who the Brewers claimed from the Rangers in the offseason.

Before this season Wilkins only had 45 plate appearances in the majors. Those all came in 2014 with the White Sox. In 2015, Wilkins played the entire year in Triple-AAA, first with the Blue Jays and then with the Dodgers.

For most of this season, Wilkins has played first base at the Triple-A level. That’s until the Brewers called him up on July 6th. Since he’s been called up, Wilkins has primarily been used as a pitch hitter, only getting 10 at bats thus far this month, and all of them came in pitch hitting opportunities. This can make it difficult for a hitter to get into a rhythm.

But, the reason this is the key moment of the game is because after Maldonado put the game out of reach, Craig Counsell decided to pitch hit Wilkins. Wilkins, though, wasn’t up against Shipley; the Diamondbacks finally got the memo and took him out of the game, and replaced him with Dominic Leone.

After Wilkins worked a 1-1 count, he got a fastball up and he didn’t miss it.

Wilkins’s first hit for the Brewers was also his first major league home run.

This wasn’t the most valuable play of the game. It wasn’t even the best play of the game, but it was the most significant.

Many players work their whole lives to get to the major leagues, and many of them never make it. In fact, most of them never make it. Wilkins made it. He made it to the big leagues and he finally got his home run. A hit that so many players dream of getting, but never get their shot.

There are very good chances that this will be Wilkins’s last home run. Wilkins might never get another hit in the big leagues. Playing baseball is hard and there’s only a select few that get chosen. I don’t know whether this will be Wilkins’s last shot in the big leagues, but at least now he has a memory of a lifetime.

Coming Up Next:
The Brewers are in action again tonight at 7:10 PM. They will be facing the Diamondbacks again, and Matt Garza will get the nod for the Brew Crew. Since coming off the disabled list Garza hasn’t pitched very well. His DRA is at 5.17, and his ERA is even worse. Garza will soon have to find something that works or else he could find himself without a job come this winter.

[Editor’s Note: A previous version of the recap was updated to correct Wilkins’s hit total.]