The core pieces of the Brewers’ offense stepped up and carried the day, as the team pounded out 13 hits, drew a pair of walks, and plated nine runs. Adam Lind launched his 18th homer of the year, though it was his first since August 11, so Craig Counsell and his staff have to be pleased with their first baseman getting back in the power column. His solo shot off Joe Blanton proved important, too, as it countered the momentum Pittsburgh picked up in the top of the fifth inning, when Aramis Ramirez continued a torrid return to Milwaukee with a ground-rule double — his fourth RBI of the evening.

It wasn’t just Lind, though. Segura and Braun both collected three hits apiece, while Lucroy and Davis both got a pair. In essence, the club played to the narrative that our own Xavier Alatorre established on Wednesday, that the offense has actually performed rather well despite the poor overall win-loss record.

Right-hander Zach Davies also made his debut. He only lasted 4.1 innings, however, as he struggled with his command and Aramis Ramirez. In fact, the former Brewers third baseman was responsible for all four runs.

Davies missed with a fastball at the belt in the fourth inning, not getting the ball in enough on the hands of A-Ram, allowing him to square it up and deposit it over the left-center fence. The next inning, the right-hander spun a decent breaking ball low-and-away, but Ramirez reached out and hooked it down the line for a double. Neither pitch was particularly egregious. What it does, though, it illustrate the limitation of what Davies offers on the mound. While he can change speeds well and alter the eye levels of hitters, he doesn’t have the pure stuff to get by with mistakes. He’s a bit like Marco Estrada in that way.

KEY MOMENT

Perhaps this is overly sentimental, but the Brewers’ home crowd has been special in this series. Not in terms of attendance — the club only drew 24,521 fans on Wednesday — but in their demeanor, in their appreciation of the game and of the players.

On Tuesday, Ramirez homered in the ninth inning for the Pirates, and instead of groaning or booing, the Brewers faithful stood and applauded for Rammy. The home team securely held the lead. Thus, the cynical could perhaps argue that the fans only clapped because the win was already in the bag. I prefer the more sanguine view, in which the fan base is appreciative of good baseball and its team, in the past, present and future.

That extended to Wednesday evening, when Zach Davies received a standing ovation from the 24,000+ people in Miller Park as he left the mound after only 4.1 innings. He surrendered four runs and left the team in a rough spot; however, the fan base supported a future member of the club, someone who will hopefully remember the support shown by the fans, rather than his pedestrian performance.

Sentimental or not, I tip my cap to the Brewers fans over the past couple nights. It’s been pretty cool.

TWO THINGS TO WATCH

Milwaukee’s Double-A club, the Biloxi Shuckers, finish up their regular season with a five-game homestand. The Southern League playoffs are around the corner. Much of the attention has been paid to guys like Orlando Arcia and Brett Phillips, but it’s ridiculous to consider how dominant their starting rotation has been.

Jorge Lopez (2.29 ERA), Tyler Wagner (2.20 ERA), Josh Hader (2.94 ERA), and Adrian Houser (1.80 ERA) will be an absolute buzz saw for any opposing team to face. The encouraging thing, too, is that three of those arms are power arms with potential mid-rotation futures, while Wagner has a legit chance to stick at the back-end of a big-league rotation. The Brewers have not only kept the quartet intact for the Souther League postseason run, but they’re likely shielding them from the laughable run environment in Colorado Springs. I’m left wondering how much damage that location has done or will do to the Brewers’ pitching prospects. Breaking balls are tough to spin and routine fly balls regularly become homers. It’s too early to tell, I suppose.

Still, Biloxi’s rotation is nasty for Double-A. The Shuckers should have a good chance to bring home some hardware in 2015.

At the big-league level, Jonathan Lucroy is catching fire. He’s hitting .400/.444/.727 over his last 15 games, re-establishing himself as an elite catcher in the majors. It’s a luxury to have a two-win catcher in a down year that was shortened by injury. With his team-friendly contract and the fact that management seemingly has designs on competing in two or three years, it’s becoming more doubtful that the club will look to trade Lucroy this offseason.

If the new general manager has different ideas, though, and can change the mind of Attanasio, his recent torrid stretch will prevent the return price from dropping too low. He’ll remain one of the more valuable pieces in the National League.

Beyond the Box Score || MLB trade deadline: Is Gerardo Parra still good at defense? (July 23, 2015)

Tom O’Donnell (@Od_tommy) takes a peek into why Gerardo Parra, a former Gold Glove winner, seems to have regressed and is ranked among the likes of Prince Fielder and Pedro Alvarez as one of the worse defenders in baseball in 2015. According to FanGraphs, Parra ranks 49th out of 55 left fielders with at least 150 innings played according to their Defense stat this year. Parra, who is almost certain to be traded before next Friday’s non-waiver deadline, has seen his defensive numbers decline precipitously even while enjoying his best offensive year. O’Donnell concludes that small sample bias and a slightly decreased ability to make difficult plays are to blame, though he fails to mention why this has dropped Parra to among the league’s worst and not simply dropped him to league-average levels.

Baseball Prospectus || The Trade Game: Carlos Gomez (July 22, 2015)

Note: You must be a Baseball Prospectus premium subscriber to access this article.

I’ll try to keep articles that are behind a paywall to a minimum here, but this one is too good to pass up. In this fun bit of role-playing, several of BP’s staff assume the role of General Manager for teams around the league that could be interested in Carlos Gomez. R.J. Anderson (playing the role of Doug Melvin) finds the price of prospects steep early, as Jonathan Judge (@bachlaw), acting as Minnesota Twins GM Terry Ryan, demands one fifth of the Brewers 25-man roster for Miguel Sano and Lewis Thorpe.  However, he is able to find three offers he can bring to a meeting with ownership, one of which he accepts. Spoiler alert: You will not like where Gomez ends up.

Knowledge @ Wharton || The Other “Moneyball”: Using Analytics to Sell Season Tickets (July 21, 2015)

Two days ago, 32,588 fans showed up to a Wednesday afternoon game to watch the 42-52 Brewers play an interleague game against an also-ran from the AL Central.  A big part of those solid attendance numbers for a bad team in the league’s smallest market is Milwaukee’s large season ticket holder base, which is bolstered by A) putting a dang roof on your house so that the games are never rained out and B) as the unnamed author points out in this interesting piece, analytics, which is no longer just for people who love Tim Raines.

FanGraphs || Evaluating the Prospects: Pittsburgh Pirates (May 16, 2014)

As you may have heard, the Brewers traded veteran third baseman Aramis Ramirez back to the Pirates yesterday, on the 12^th anniversary of the trade that sent him out of Pittsburgh to the Cubs. In return the Brewers received 23-year-old Yhonathan Barrios (pronounced like Ron Burgundy pronounces ‘jogging’), an infielder-turned-reliever whom the Brewers assigned to Double-A Biloxi. There’s not a ton to be excited about with this deal, though Barrios does sit mid-90s with his fastball, but Ramirez is 38 and the return was never going to be anything that would blow you away. This article from a year ago highlights Barrios as one of the hardest throwers in the minors. Our own Jack Moore also had the transaction analysis for this trade yesterday, in case you missed it. Thanks for the memories, Rami.

Brew Crew Ball || The Brewers would be better off by removing Kyle Lohse from the starting rotation (July 23, 2015)

A bit of a mouthful in the headline department, but Jason Paczkowski at Brew Crew Ball takes a look at the impending decision Doug Melvin will need to make regarding Kyle Lohse when Wily Peralta returns from the disabled list. There’s no reasonable case to be made for keeping Lohse—who was shelled again on Wednesday and is the worst qualifying starting pitcher in the bigs—as a starter, save a move to a 6-man rotation to save the Brewers young arms from overuse. Paczkowski notes that sending Taylor Jungmann back down to Triple-A Colorado Springs is a non-starter after the blistering start to his major-league career (5-1, 2.04 ERA, 1.019 WHIP, 0.7 PWARP in just 8 starts). In all, a fine read, though there’s a bit of a sentimental vibe to this piece for a player who spent way more time as a Brewer killer in St. Louis than he did as a useful pitcher in Milwaukee.

Brewers.com || prospect Harrison suffers broken ankle (July 22, 2015)

From the Absolute Bummer and In Case You Missed It departments, Monte Harrison suffered a gruesome season-ending ankle injury while running the bases on Tuesday night, reports Adam McCalvy (@AdamMcCalvy). The injury couldn’t have come at a worse time for Harrison, ranked by MLB.com as the #3 prospect in the Brewers’ system, who was starting to put things together at Helena after a tough start at Low-A Wisconsin this spring. There is not yet a timetable for Harrison’s recovery, who is heading to Milwaukee for surgery soon according the Director of Media Relations for the Helena Brewers:

Looks like Monte Harrison will head to Milwaukee for surgery in the coming days and then fly to Arizona to begin rehab.

— Dustin Daniel (@dustin__daniel) July 22, 2015

Grantland || Outer-Third Omnipotence: Why No One Can Score On Zack Grienke (July 22, 2015)

Jonah Keri (@jonahkeri) takes a look at how an expanded strike zone has aided former-Brewer Zack Grienke’s recent run of dominance. Grienke, who hasn’t been scored upon in over a month, will own the longest scoreless streak in the expansion era if he can get through the first 3.2 innings of his next start unscathed. Originally scheduled to pitch Friday, Grienke will miss that start to be with his wife as the couple are expecting their first child. Come for some nice analysis of how umpires help make top pitchers even more dominant, stay for the Grienke quotes. In his weekly power rankings posted Monday to Grantland, Keri predicted Ramirez being traded to the Pirates, because he is a wizard.

 ESPN Insider || Top 50 MLB Prospects (July 16, 2015)

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Keith Law (@keithlaw) came out with a mid-season update of his top 50 MLB prospects list last Thursday, from which we learned two things: he really likes Orlando Arcia, whom he ranked 17th; and he really doesn’t like anyone else in the Brewers system, as he specifically notes that he believes only Arcia and 2015 1st round pick Trenton Clark have “grade-60 or better” potential. It is, of course, widely known that Law hates the Brewers and also hates everyone else’s favorite team. Also of note: there’s only one Cub higher on the list than Arcia, and he’d no longer qualify if it were redone today (recently recalled catcher Kyle Schwarber sits 10th). This would be wonderful news if the reason the Cubs had all cleared off the top of the list was anything other than, “They’re all playing in the major leagues now.” Oh well.

Lead photo courtesy of Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

The Brewers began indicating to both baseball media and front offices around the league that they would be sellers as early as May 7th. The Brewers have plenty of players worthy of trade speculation—Carlos Gomez and Ryan Braun perhaps the most interesting—but the most obvious trade candidate, the player most clearly on his way out was third baseman Aramis Ramirez. The 37-year-old will be retiring at the end of the season and is in the last year of a four-year contract with Milwaukee, making him a relatively painless option for a team in need of infield help.

And over the past few weeks, the Pirates swiftly became that team. First, Josh Harrison tore the UCL in his thumb sliding into second base on July 5th, forcing Jung-Ho Kang into action as the everyday third baseman. Then during the Brewers last series against Pittsburgh over the weekend, Carlos Gomez collided with Jordy Mercer sliding to break up a double play, a collision that resulted in a bruised and sprained left knee. Now, Kang will move back to his original position of shortstop with Ramirez taking over duties at third for the Pirates, as the Brewers have agreed to send Ramirez and cash considerations to Pittsburgh in exchange for hard throwing right-handed pitcher Yhonathan Barrios.

Ramirez’s April struggles were part of the nose dive that killed Milwaukee’s season in its first month. He hit a brutal .214/.236/.357 in 22 April games and walked just once against 12 strikeouts. Any time a player as old and with as much mileage as Ramirez—lest we forget, he made his MLB debut at age 19 and is 10th among active players with 2,138 games played and 8,772 plate appearance—starts so slowly, the natural instinct is to assume Father Time has finally caught up to him. But slow starts have been the norm for Ramirez throughout his career. Ramirez has just a .769 career OPS in April and a .781 mark in May—15 percent and 12 percent below his typical marks respectively, according to Baseball-Reference’s tOPS+. In every other month, he has posted a career OPS over .800.

Since his brutal April, Ramirez is hitting .258/.313/.455, a respectable line compared to the National League third base average of .268/.328/.431. That’s a far sight better than what anybody in the Pirates organization (Pittsburgh’s likely replacement third baseman was former White Sox starter Brent Morel, owner of a .225/.272/.325 career line) could have done. For a Pirates team within six games of the Cardinals in the division and leading the Wild Card race, Ramirez was an awfully cheap fix.

Barrios, Milwaukee’s return, is a somewhat fascinating prospect. It’s rare enough to see anybody hitting triple digits, but Barrios does it with just a 5-foot-11, 180 pound frame, and as FanGraphs’s Nathaniel Stoltz shared prior to the season, he does it with a surprisingly smooth delivery:

Barrios has yet to turn that blazing velocity into reliable results. He has just a 4.60 ERA in 13 games at Triple-A this season and posted a 3.86 ERA between two Class A squads in 2014. His minor league 6.6 K/9 is underwhelming, and his control has been shaky at every level. But he has only been pitching professionally for three years—the Pirates converted him from the infield to the mound after the 2012 season—and is only 23 years old. His off-speed pitches are understandably works in progress, and even for pitchers with as much power as Barrios has shown, it’s typically the off-speed pitch that racks up the strikeouts.

Barrios will be a project for Milwaukee’s coaching staff, but that’s about as much as could be expected in return for Ramirez. And even in order to get that, the Brewers had to eat a few million dollars—the Pirates are only paying for $3 million of the nearly $6 million left on Ramirez’s contract, according to Ken Rosenthal

Source: #Pirates taking on $3M of Ramirez’s remaining salary.

— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) July 23, 2015

It’s an earnest rebuilding move, though, as the Brewers attempt to assemble the young talent they’ll need to compete again like they did in 2008 and 2011. Ramirez, meanwhile, gets his chance to compete for a pennant in his retirement season, and, amazingly, he’ll be able to finish his 18-year career without ever leaving the comfortable confines of the National League Central.

Lead photo courtesy of Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports

I won’t attempt to convince you that Ramirez is secretly having a very good season. He is not. However, his season slash line of .234/.279/.414 obscures his recent production which has been a good deal better.

From the start of the season through June 11, Ramirez was hitting .211/.253/.380 with a 4.4 percent walk rate, 16.5 percent strikeout rate, .170 ISO, and .215 BABIP. In the last 30 days of play (June 12 to July 12), Ramirez has slashed .278/.327/.478 with a 6.1 percent walk rate, 11.2 percent strikeout rate, .200 ISO, and .286 BABIP. This is encouraging.

Aramis Ramirez’s career line looks like this: .284/.342/.494, 7.0 percent walk rate, 13.8 percent strikeout rate, .210 ISO, .291 BABIP. His production over the last 30 days of play is much closer to his career numbers than the first two months. However, we are now dealing with small sample sizes and arbitrary end points — on both sides of the coin.

We cannot assume because Ramirez has performed well more recently that he will continue doing so. It would also be improper to weight 98 plate appearances (June 12 to July 12) more heavily than his first 182. But Ramirez does have a tendency to perform better in the second half of the season. Over his career in the first half of the season, he’s hit .277/.336/.474, while in the second half, he has historically hit .298/.357/.535. I have no explanation for why this has happened, but I will allow it to fuel my hope for him.

It seems unlikely the Brewers will be able to trade Ramirez by the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline. He has performed close to his career average in the last 30 days, but that doesn’t erase what he did prior to June 12. Teams are smart and are unlikely to be fooled by small-sample-size numbers.

However, there still can be trades made in August, which is the waiver trade period.

Trades work slightly different in August than before the regular trade deadline. Teams must put players on waivers, during which time all 29 other clubs have a chance to claim the player in question. If a team does claim that player then the original team can do one of three things. First, they can negotiate a trade with the claiming team and only that team. Second, they can simply let that team have the player (and his salary). Finally, they can pull that player back off waivers. If that player passes through waivers unclaimed, then his team may negotiate with the 29 teams like normal.

Aramis Ramirez is exactly the type of player that should be expected to pass through waivers unclaimed. He got off to a terrible start and his salary this year is $14 million. While any team that were to claim him would only pay a prorated portion of his full salary, it remains a lot of money. It’s rare that a team would take that chance because it’s very likely, even if the two sides can’t come to terms on a trade package, the Brewers would just let him go to get out from under his contract.

Assuming Ramirez cannot be moved by July 31, the Brewers should have all of August to orchestrate a trade. That gives Ramirez enough time to show that he’s the hitter he was from June 12 to July 12 instead of the early-season flameout. Furthermore, it could help reinforce the notion that he is a second-half performer. If he can do that, there is a better chance the Brewers can move him.

It seems unlikely the Brewers would net a high-quality return for Ramirez, but something is always better than nothing. In order for this to happen, though, Ramirez must remain productive. A team also must be willing to acquire him. That much is out of his and the Brewers’ control. Thus, even if Ramirez gets hot, there is a real chance that he won’t be moved. A month ago, it did not appear that a trade was possible, so it’s progress.

Heard #Mets left series in Milw unimpressed by Aramis Ramirez on both sides of ball. And weren’t that interested to start with #Brewers

— Joel Sherman (@Joelsherman1) June 30, 2015

The Mets have always appeared to be the natural fit for Ramirez this summer. Third base for New York’s National League outfit has been one of the most stable landscapes in all of baseball this century, thanks to David Wright, but his ailing back has caused the Amazins’ to turn to a depressing committee of Eric Campbell, Ruben Tejada, and the currently-injured Daniel Murphy at the hot corner. Still, they continue to downplay their interest in Ramirez at every turn. It now seems that this was not just gamesmanship to lower the asking price.

Unexpectedly, and for the first time since the Willie Randolph days, the Mets are contenders this year. Third base, though, has been a major weak spot in the lineup. Campbell has been a Mets farmhand since 2008 and only this year did he find himself into the BP Annual – he’s that kind of non-prospect. As such, he was never supposed to even be in the conversation at third base. It’s not difficult to see why;  he’s been downright terrible. In just north of 150 plate appearances, he’s slashing .171/.283/.264. Only eight of those 152 plate appearances have resulted in an extra-base hit. Campbell’s hit chart to date is every bit as hope-inspiring as a funeral dirge:

“Campbell and Co.” would make a decent name for an indie rock band, but as a third baseman, he must do far better than this. Of course, Aramis Ramirez no longer represents first-division talent at this stage in his career. But it’s hard to imagine him performing worse than that. Alas, the Mets want nothing to do with him — even if the fans might disagree.

@Joelsherman1 I’m not impressed with Eric Campbell.

— Mike (@mike5_5_5) June 30, 2015

Despite this, with less than a month until the trade deadline, hope is not lost on the Aramis front. Though there has been no reported contact between the teams, a perfect buyer exists for Ramirez’s services — just across Lake Michigan, too, in the Brewers’ old home, the AL Central.

As of Thursday afternoon, the Detroit Tigers sit two-games back of the American League Wild Card. Additionally, no other organization in baseball is more fixed in “Win Right Now, Baby” mode. Miguel Cabrera may still the most feared bat in baseball, but he’s 32 years old. History indicates that his time sitting upon the throne is short at that age. Hell, Justin Verlander is the same age and already repaying whatever deal he made with the devil from 2009-2012 with handsome interest. Ian Kinsler is a year older than both of them. Both Victor Martinez and Alfredo Simon are older than the whole bunch.

In the coming few years, when that aging core starts to slip in its performance, nobody will be there to pick up the slack. The Motor City Kitties’ farm system is rated by Baseball Prospectus as the worst in baseball. Thirtieth out of thirty. The 2014 draft saw them draft high-school outfielder Derek Hill in the first round. Though Hill is a total wild card at this point, years away from paying any potential dividends at the big-league level, his upside was lofty enough to get him named the Tigers’ top prospect for 2015. Nobody on the Tigers’ farm with major-league talent is major-league ready, and vice versa. It’s a familiar problem for Brewers fans.

The big difference is, for the Tigers, there’s hope in the present. And depending on your opinion of the Anthony Gose/Rajai Davis platoon in center field, the only two positions that have not been offensively fertile this season are catcher and third base.

The Tigers would really love to solve their woes behind the dish by adding Jonathan Lucroy to the mix. I’d also really love a Model S. The reality of both those dream-situations is that the Tigers lack the young resources to present a fair offer for Lucroy. I should also point out that my credit rating would get me unceremoniously booted from the Tesla store without so much as a test drive. It’s probably best to leave both of those ideas in the realm of the hypothetical, where they belong.

But third base, on the other hand, seems a natural fit for the two teams. Ramirez will come cheap enough for the asset-strapped Tigers, in terms of prospects, and he could pay off even if he falls flat on the field.

Incumbent at third base for the Tigers is 23-year-old Nick Castellanos. Just two years ago Castellanos was a top prospect, the lone jewel saving Detroit from their current 30th-place farm purgatory. Since then, things haven’t gone according to plan. The Tigers may have rushed Castellanos to the big leagues, and in 871 major-league plate appearances, he has a paltry on-base percentage of .295 — and to go with only 15 home runs. The whole package has been less than a win below replacement level.

Castellanos’ struggles have led the Tigers to give part-time reps to utility infielder Andrew Romine at the hot corner in an effort to motivate him into delivering on his potential. So far, that hasn’t done anything to shake things up. Replacing Romine with Ramirez, though, could conceivably be an upgrade for the Tigers. Castellanos came up to the big leagues at 21 years old and has looked overmatched. His poor baserunning, lackluster contact, and inability to recognize pitches are all issues that need to be straightened out, rather than swept under the rug. The team would be wise to rewind his development a touch and ease him back into the starting job through Ramirez, possibly even after some time in Triple-A to remember how to mash again. That’s a luxury trading for Aramis would afford them. In the middle of a playoff race, a team can’t exactly entrust third base to Romine and expect the fans to not mutiny. Ramirez wouldn’t carry the same problems.

It’s not an exciting deal for either team. For the Tigers, they would be getting less than half-season of a broken-down shell of a once-great player. For the Brewers, they would be cutting bait with the guy who was supposed to replace Prince Fielder’s production when he left — for Detroit, ironically — via free agency and likely getting peanuts in return. But it’s a practical move for all parties involved. The Tigers could address their broken third baseman of the future, the Brewers could exchange their expiring pumpkin for something small but potentially useful, and Aramis Ramirez could round out his career trying to chase down the Royals in the American League Central.

Not every fairy tale has a happy ending. Sometimes, a resolution where all parties are generally satisfied is the best for which one can hope.

*****

It wasn’t supposed to go anything like this.

When Aramis Ramirez told reporters, back in January, that 2015 would likely be his last campaign as an active major-league player, both he and the Milwaukee Brewers envisioned him going out with a bang. While a Derek Jeter-style retirement gala was never going to be in the cards for Aramis, all parties involved were hopeful that Ramirez could provide one last season of a reliable middle-of-the-order stick, and that the Brewers could use this and other contributions to defy the experts’ predictions like they did for most of last season.

For both the Brewers and Ramirez, however, this season has instead been the worst-case scenario brought to life. The Brewers, as a team, couldn’t have come out flatter if they had been prepared on a griddle. This was a team constructed for everything to go right — and starting from Opening Day, everything went wrong.

Opening Day was a perfect blend of bad luck and inept performance. The Brewers collected eight hits — none of which went for extra bases — but were still kept out of the run column. The pitchers responsible for twirling the shutout were Kyle Kendrick, Rafael Betancourt, and Christrian Friedrich — as motley a crew to ever throw nine innings of opening-day scoreless ball as any in baseball history, or at least it feels that way. But when the final score is 10-0, your bad luck didn’t swing things as much as it highlighted them. On the bright side, Kyle Lohse will not go down as the worst Opening Day starter in Brewers’ history. But the bad news is that this is only because Rafael Roque unfortunately happened once upon a time, not because Lohse has looked like a quality major-league pitcher at any point.

Like the team’s Opening Day debacle, you can scapegoat bad luck for the offensive struggles of Aramis Ramirez — but only to a certain extent. Ramirez has batted .220 on balls in play this year, which is an impossibly low number should rise. However, Ramirez has also seemingly stopped worrying about pitch selectivity the past two seasons. He owns a walk rate of 7 percent over the course of his career, but for 2014 he walked at a 4 percent clip, and this year it has remained low at 4.5 percent. He’s swinging at 37.5 percent of pitches outside the zone, which is eight-percent higher than his career norm.  Thus, the walks have dried up, but the hits have dried up, too — the end result is that Ramirez has posted an on-base percentage of .257. Yeah. On-base percentage. Of .257.

The Brewers are mired in last place of the NL Central, with an aging roster and a farm system that multiple experts rank as one of the worst in baseball. As such, every single player in the team’s control is considered a trade chip at this point. Hell, if someone offered up two top-50 prospects plus a sandwich pick for the rights to Bernie Brewer, I’m not entirely convinced the team would be wise to say no.

Ramirez, naturally, is considered by many the most likely to move. After all, he’s already said — and then reiterated — that 2015 is going to be his last go of it. With his track record of success and the Brewers desperate need for young assets of any flavor, it should be a lock that he’s on his way out this summer, but ESPN.com’s Jayson Stark isn’t so sure. While he listed Ramirez (along with closer Francisco Rodriguez) among his ten names to watch for in-season trades, he is not confident that Ramirez will be moved.

One reason for this is the above-mentioned performance issues. Basing one’s opinion off 2015 numbers, rather than name-brand reputation, Ramirez is only a hair better than replacement level. Even for teams in need of a third baseman, Ramirez represents more of a “potential upgrade” or “complimentary piece” at the hot corner, and that’s an optimistic view of it. He’s no longer the big-ticket acquisition he once was. And even though his .219 BABIP suggests he should be better from here on out, there’s reason to believe that might not be the case.

Ramirez’s hit-ball profile indicates that he has inexplicably stopped hitting the ball hard this year, and started making tons more soft contact than ever before. Out of 181 players with at least 100 qualifying at-bats, Baseball Savant ranks his batted ball exit velocity as 152nd. A look deeper reveals at least a partial reason why: Ramirez has been swinging at far more bad pitches outside of the strike zone since 2014, rising from a 29.9 percent career average to around 39.5 percent and 37.5 percent the past two years. And he’s making contact with over two thirds of those balls. Common sense suggests that there’s a lot of weak contact coming from these bad swings.

This could be a hidden injury, it could be a mentally-checked-out player trapped on a team he loathes, but the most likely reason for this is that Ramirez is simply aging — or a combination of the three. His eye isn’t as sharp, his reactions aren’t as quick, and he’s struggling to adapt to a game that feels like it’s speeding up around him. He’s no longer an MVP candidate, or an All-Star, or even a first-division starter. He’s a player who can barely beat replacement level. And if the Brewers don’t recognize this with their asking price, they will indeed see him retire in a Milwaukee uniform.

Another reason for the pessimism is his price tag. Ramirez is due $14 million for this season, and with the way he has played nobody wants to commit approximately half of that salary to import him. The Brewers, it is presumed, will not eat the remainder of his salary to be rid of him. But this is faulty reasoning, rooted in a mindset that typifies small-market teams as overwhelmingly stingy under all circumstances.

The truth is, owner Mark Attanasio is a businessman and, from a business perspective, paying the rest of Ramirez’s contract makes sense. The team has already budgeted for it. There is no situation in which the Brewers can choose between “pay Aramis’s contract” or “don’t pay that money” unless a taker emerges who is willing to absorb that salary. As we’ve established, this appears to be unlikely.

Here is the reality of the situation: the Brewers can either pay out Ramirez’s contract for him to run out the clock and soak up at-bats for a team destined to miss the postseason, they can pay Ramirez’s contract and force him into early retirement by benching him, or they could pay for him to serve as another team’s mercenary, in exchange for some kind of tangible young baseball talent. When viewed in that way, the choice seems obvious.

If the Brewers get less than what they perceive to be fair value for Ramirez, who was the ninth-place vote-getter in the NL MVP race just three years ago, that is perfectly acceptable. If the Brewers hold onto Ramirez, they get nothing. Retiring players fetch a team nothing in the way of draft picks, and Ramirez’s contract is off the books at the end of the year regardless of what action the team takes.

I know this. Readers know this. And we can bet that every front office in the game knows it. Except maybe the Phillies, if we’re being fair, but they’re not buying an age-advanced third baseman anyway so it doesn’t matter.

The Brewers don’t have a lot of young talent. The consistent draft misfirings from 2009 to 2011 have left them in a position where the front office cannot afford to make mistakes in righting the ship and retooling the team back into a contender. Allowing Ramirez to retire a Brewer in a non-playoff year would be a big mistake. Letting Ramirez retire a Brewer over money that is already a sunk cost would be a tragic mistake, the kind that a team with a bottom-tier farm system and no competitive chance in the short-term cannot afford to make.