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	<title>Milwaukee &#187; Austin Jackson</title>
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		<title>Free Agency is the Answer</title>
		<link>http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/01/25/free-agency-is-the-answer/</link>
		<comments>http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/01/25/free-agency-is-the-answer/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 25 Jan 2018 13:24:18 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Dylan Svoboda]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[2018 Brewers offseason]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Austin Jackson]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Brewers free agency analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Brewers trade analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Chris Archer]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Christian Yelich]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jake Arrieta]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Lorenzo Cain]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Yu Darvish]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=11038</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[On January 22nd, the San Francisco Giants signed Austin Jackson to a two-year deal. Jackson has yet to turn thirty-one-years-old, and been worth 16.5 WARP over his nine-year career. He was worth 1.9 WARP over 318 plate appearances last season, yet he signed for just $6 million to be the Giants’ starting center fielder. The [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>On January 22nd, the San Francisco Giants signed Austin Jackson to a two-year deal. Jackson has yet to turn thirty-one-years-old, and been worth 16.5 WARP over his nine-year career. He was worth 1.9 WARP over 318 plate appearances last season, yet he signed for just $6 million to be the Giants’ starting center fielder.</p>
<p>The Milwaukee Brewers are coming off an 86-win season and trying to add to that success. Despite what appears to be one of the most favorable free agent markets in recent history, David Stearns seems to be turning to the trade market for improvements. In this discounted market, Stearns would be mistaken going to the trade route rather than spending in free agency.</p>
<p>The Brewers are rumored to be in trade talks with the Miami Marlins for Christian Yelich.</p>
<p>&lt;blockquote class=&#8221;twitter-tweet&#8221; data-lang=&#8221;en&#8221;&gt;&lt;p lang=&#8221;en&#8221; dir=&#8221;ltr&#8221;&gt;Source : Brewers have put together a trade offer &amp;amp; have shown strong interest Marlins OF Christian Yelich. Other teams remain in the mix.&lt;/p&gt;&amp;mdash; Craig Mish (@CraigMish) &lt;a href=&#8221;https://twitter.com/CraigMish/status/955907465538822144?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&#8221;&gt;January 23, 2018&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt; &lt;script async src=&#8221;https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js&#8221; charset=&#8221;utf-8&#8243;&gt;&lt;/script&gt;</p>
<p>Yelich is the most valuable piece on the trade market. He’s barely twenty-six-years-old, and under a $43.3 million contract through 2021 with a $15 million team option for 2022. He’s been worth 15.8 WARP in four-and-a-half major league seasons. Yelich is a borderline superstar on an extremely team-friendly contract.</p>
<p>Yelich&#8217;s talent level and contract situation not only makes him the most coveted piece on the trade market this offseason, but he’s also one of the most valuable assets in the league period. He’s going to garner a haul.</p>
<p>A trade for Yelich like starts with one of the Brewers young outfielders, Domingo Santana or Lewis Brinson, both of which are under favorable contract situations of their own. Santana or Brinson alone won’t be nearly enough to acquire Yelich. A hypothetical trade will likely cost one of the two outfielders and probably two of the Brewers top ten prospects or one of their top three prospects. Yelich’s age, skill, and contract allow the Marlins to ask for the world.</p>
<p>The Brewers have one of the strongest farm systems in the league, which is one of the reasons they are in on players such as Yelich and Chris Archer. Rather than blowing up the farm system Stearns has spent the past few seasons building, he has the option of going to the free agent market to find outfield and pitching improvements.</p>
<p>The Brewers ended the last two seasons with the lowest payroll in the league after finishing with the 15th highest payroll in 2014, according to <a href="http://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/national-league-central/milwaukee-brewers/">Cots Baseball Contracts</a>. In other words, the organization should have money to spend.</p>
<p>The front office should be looking to add pieces to this young core coming up through the system, not shedding pieces to add talent. Especially when assets on the free agent market are to be had.</p>
<p>If the Brewers are set on improving center field, they should look no further than Lorenzo Cain. Cain is much older, not as talented, and would likely cost a bit more financially than Yelich. However, the veteran Cain wouldn’t cost anything in prospect loss, save a compensatory pick in this years draft. The Brewers could then use their deep outfield to trade for rotation or relief help.</p>
<p>There are plenty of options on the free agent market for Stearns to add to the starting rotation. Yu Darvish, Jake Arrieta, Lance Lynn, and Alex Cobb are just a few names who have yet to find a home. In Darvish’s case, he wouldn’t cost a compensation pick. The Brewers should be doing everything they can to add pitching in this market while they are still available. If all else fails and the team is desperate for pitching, then turn to the trade market.</p>
<p>There’s no reason to ruin what the Brewers have going, as far as their farm system goes. A farm system is something to build around. The Chicago Cubs won their first championship in 108 years by building and holding onto a strong farm system, and then adding veteran talent around them, most through free agency. The Brewers should be looking to go the same route, particularly in this team-friendly free agent market.</p>
<p>Although it’s tempting to jump the gun and acquire an Archer or Yelich, especially when you have the assets to make that possible, it’d be ideal for the Brewers to hold onto their prospects, stay out of the trade market, and build around their young prospects rather than using them as trade assets.</p>
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<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>Photo Credit: Gary A. Vasquez, USAToday Sports Images</p>
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		<title>Three Sensible Free-Agent Targets For Brewers</title>
		<link>http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2015/11/12/three-sensible-free-agent-targets-for-brewers/</link>
		<comments>http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2015/11/12/three-sensible-free-agent-targets-for-brewers/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 12 Nov 2015 17:22:24 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[J.P. Breen]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Austin Jackson]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Commentary]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Dale Thayer]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Dillon Gee]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Free Agency]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=2597</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Rebuilding teams should not ignore the free-agent market. In the same vein, rebuilding teams should not avoid spending money on players. Sure, the types of players purchased and the optimal structure of player contracts differ significantly when the club is not expected to contend; however, it&#8217;s highly misleading for fans to assume that &#8220;rebuilding&#8221; somehow equals &#8220;cheap&#8221; [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Rebuilding teams should not ignore the free-agent market. In the same vein, rebuilding teams should not avoid spending money on players. Sure, the types of players purchased and the optimal structure of player contracts differ significantly when the club is not expected to contend; however, it&#8217;s highly misleading for fans to assume that &#8220;rebuilding&#8221; somehow equals &#8220;cheap&#8221; or &#8220;young.&#8221;</p>
<p>What the Milwaukee Brewers should be doing this offseason is identifying free agents who could eventually bring a long-term asset, either via a trade or via the qualifying offer system. The Chicago Cubs did this several years ago, signing Scott Feldman to a short-term deal. They famously shipped the right-hander to Baltimore in 2013 for Jake Arrieta and Pedro Strop &#8212; an innocuous deal at the time, but one that has profoundly shaped the current Cubs franchise.</p>
<p>This isn&#8217;t to suggest that the Milwaukee Brewers can pull off a trade as lopsided as the Arrieta deal turned out to be. They should, though, be targeting Scott-Feldman-like free agents, ones who can be signed to short-term deals and ones with modest upside. None of these players will be exciting, the vast majority of them are currently fringe everyday guys, but the key is to find fringe guys who have the opportunity to produce solid numbers in 2016. It&#8217;s not unlike what happened with Gerardo Parra. The Brewers moved a couple low-end prospects for a fourth outfielder. A year later, Parra re-established his value and brought the Brewers a potential back-end starter for the next half-decade. David Stearns and his staff should target a couple players of that ilk.</p>
<p>Below are three free-agent targets that I have in mind.</p>
<h3>AUSTIN JACKSON</h3>
<p>The 28-year-old center fielder has been a below-average hitter for the past two seasons, posting an 86 wRC+ and 94 wRC+ over the past two years, respectively. His glovework has kept him employable, but a full-time stint in the National League in one of the best hitter&#8217;s parks in Major League Baseball may be enough to inflate the numbers to league-average status. He was a two-win player in 2015. In the friendly confines of Miller Park, he could do what Dexter Fowler did this past year &#8212; move from fringe center fielder who bounced around annually to a legitimate starting option.</p>
<p>Jackson could be a 15/15 guy with a middling batting average in Miller Park. As a rebuilding club, they&#8217;ll have the luxury to deal with his penchant for striking out and his extended cold spells at the plate. The club would hope they catch Jackson on an upswing in the early part of the 2016 season, one where he performs as a top-half center fielder and could be flipped at the trade deadline to a contender. Outfielders who can play defense are always in demand at the trade deadline &#8212; especially center fielders &#8212; and the Brewers are in a position to take a shot in the dark. Given the number of outfielders reportedly on the trade market this winter, too, the club may have a real shot to sign Jackson on a one- or two-year deal.</p>
<h3>DILLON GEE</h3>
<p>Gee is one of my favorite under-the-radar pitchers of the offseason. He&#8217;s a viable back-end starter who got squeezed out in New York due to their ridiculous rotation. He&#8217;s also a guy who has the stigma of spending much of the 2015 season in Triple-A and a guy the Mets couldn&#8217;t trade no matter how hard they tried. Despite this, the right-hander owns a career 4.03 ERA and has shown a better ability to miss bats than his strikeout rate would otherwise suggest. That may not sound exciting, but prior to the year in which the Cubs signed Scott Feldman and he was shipped to Baltimore, Feldman compiled a 5.09 ERA in 123.2 innings with the Texas Rangers.</p>
<p>Throughout his career, Gee has a career 9.1 percent swinging-strike rate and it increased very slightly to 9.4 percent this past season. That&#8217;s right around the league-average swinging-strike rate for starting pitchers, which is 9.3 percent. Thus, it seems disingenuous to claim that the 29-year-old hurler has terrible stuff or a repertoire that cannot succeed at the highest level. He also limits walks, which is a huge benefit. The problem, of course, is that Gee gives up the long ball too often and hasn&#8217;t necessarily translated his swinging-strike rate into actual strikeouts. These limitations are what could make him available on a short-term deal for Milwaukee &#8212; they&#8217;re never going to sign the finished article during a rebuild &#8212; but he actually showed a surprising amount of ground balls in 2015 and one wonders what changed in his repertoire and if its repeatable.</p>
<p>Gee suffered from a .355 BABIP in a very small sample in New York a year ago. Prior to that, he posted ERAs of 4.00, 3.62, and 4.10. That&#8217;s good enough for a back-end starter on a rebuilding club. If he can put together a quality couple months, too, he could be someone who nets an interesting prospect at the trade deadline. But, yeah, I warned you that these names would be uninspiring.</p>
<h3>DALE THAYER</h3>
<p>The icing on the cake: A 34-year-old veteran reliever who cleared waivers and was sent to Triple-A in 2015.</p>
<p>Thayer is only a year removed from a 2.34 ERA for the San Diego Padres and will surely be cheap this offseason. His overall numbers suggest that he was ineffective across the board, but his .286/.316/.427 slash line against righties belies the quality strikeout-to-walk ratio. Thayer struck out 20 percent of the right-handed hitters he faced, while only walking three percent. The right-hander has a long history of success against righties, too, holding them to a career .213/.276/.343 slash line. The dramatic drop-off in effectiveness as a 30-something is concerning; however, it&#8217;s important to recognize that his velocity didn&#8217;t drop much &#8212; only 92.2 mph to 91.9 mph with the fastball. The main issue seemed to be that he fell behind too often in the count, something he didn&#8217;t do very often in 2014.</p>
<p>Doug Melvin regularly brought in relievers on minor-league deals who ended up being very serviceable. Zack Duke is the most obvious example of this, but guys like Kammeron Loe found success after inking a minor-league deal with the Brewers. Thayer may be an interesting non-roster guy to bring into camp. He&#8217;s only a year removed from extreme effectiveness and didn&#8217;t really see his velocity decline. If he can throw more strikes, his fastball-slider combination becomes much more effective and he can improve the middle portion of the bullpen &#8212; and relievers are always in demand at the trade deadline, even if it&#8217;s just for something like international slot money.</p>
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