These projections will not be perfectly accurate come season’s end, but they provide a good starting point for analyzing the Brewers’ upcoming season.  The Brewers will have a decent shot at making the playoffs, but whether that actually happens will (obviously) be determined by which players over- or under-perform their projections and by how much.  And as some players are more risky than others, who gets significant playing time can play a big role in whether a team significantly overshoots their projection.

PECOTA tells an interesting story for the Brewers, as the six-win gap to the Cubs seems as if it should be significant.  Because of the stratification of talent across the big leagues, however, that gap is by far the smallest between the top two teams in any division (the nine-win gap between the Yankees and Red Sox is next).  The Brewers and Cardinals are the teams most likely to “steal” a division title and earn their playoff spot without having to go through the wild card round, so they should see greater incentive than other potential wild card teams to close the gap between themselves and the Cubs.

Just because a division title is plausible does not mean the Brewers should mortgage the future to reach for that goal, though.  They are still early in their competitive cycle, so trading young talent for short-term upgrades does not make sense.  What could make sense, though, is spending money on shorter-term free agent deals that will improve the team now but come off the books before any long-term extensions are required.

But another way to impact playoff odds is through deciding what types of players to give playing time to.  The goal is always to put the best players on the field, but players have different risk profiles.  There is not a ton of difference between the projections for Jonathan Villar (.244 TAv) and Eric Sogard (.238 TAv), for example, but Villar is more likely to give you a three-win season than is Sogard.  Sogard, however, is probably less likely to be a negative.

Because Villar is a higher-variance option, he gives the Brewers a better chance at exceeding their projections than would someone like Sogard or Hernan Perez.  Whether the Brewers want this, however, is an open question.  They are closer to first place than any other second-place team, so one possible path is to play for as low-variance a season as possible and hope the Cubs disappoint again.  Another option would be to take advantage of how close they are and be more aggressive.

This impacts Villar because it dictates how long his leash should be.  If he starts the season as the everyday second baseman but struggles out of the gates, the Brewers could be tempted to replace him.  If they are willing to take on higher risk, though, they should continue to give him playing time because his upside is such (at least as compared to Sogard or Hernan Perez) that he could help them close the gap on the Cubs.

If the Brewers do choose this path, and Villar does not turn it around but is instead a replacement-level player and they miss the playoffs by a game, that does not necessarily mean that the team made a mistake.  Even with perfect information, which even major league baseball teams do not have, it is impossible to predict how any individual player will fare in a particular season.  When teams are deciding how to allocate playing time, risk profile should be one of the factors taken into consideration.

Because big-league teams have better information than we do as fans, a reasonable temptation is to ask them to be perfect and accurately predict what will happen with each player in the upcoming season.  They cannot do that, though.  Their models are probably more accurate than are the public ones, at least in part because they have access to more information and so their inputs are better.  But they still cannot perfectly predict player performance, as the continuing existence of free agent bargains indicates, so instead they are playing probabilities.

Villar is a good illustration of this type of player.  The Brewers cannot know exactly what they will get from him, but his 2016 performance shows that he can be a good player.  Whether that player will show up in 2018 is an open question, but the Brewers would be justified in letting him play to see whether he can be productive and push the team towards a potential division title.  Because the Cubs are a more talented team, the Brewers have to take some risks if they want to try and catch them.  Giving Villar an extended run at second base would qualify.

Photo Credit: Benny Sieu, USAToday Sports Images

Baseball Prospectus:
Why PECOTA Hates Your Favorite Team
13 Noteworthy Projections

Since PECOTA is a probabilistic model, which means that it is designed to reflect the most probable outcome in a distribution of projected outcomes, Brewers fans should keep in mind that “84” is not some special or magic number. As demonstrated last season, a club that was expected (at best) to flirt with .500 surged ahead and competed for the playoffs, but that surge was not even greater than one standard deviation away from the projected win total. These Brewers could indeed use their strengths to once again push the club ahead of schedule by contending for a playoff spot or winning the division in 2018, or they could indeed sputter in development patterns or role depreciation and return closer to .500. What PECOTA reflects is that the Brewers’ big offseason moves (trading for Christian Yelich, signing Lorenzo Cain) did not guarantee them a playoff spot or even playoff contention, but instead, “more probable” competition or “more probable” playoff contention.

So, what’s going to make the Brewers “tick” in 2018? Here are my favorite picks from 2018 Brewers PECOTA:

PECOTA “punts” the Yelich Trade
Standing behind the curtain during some of the PECOTA work throughout the offseason, it was very interesting to see that the trade involving Lewis Brinson, Monte Harrison, Isan Diaz, and Jordan Yamamoto for Christian Yelich….did not really “move the needle” on the Brewers’ 2018 expected win total. This is surprising given the court of public opinion, but there are two specific reasons that the trade does not immediately yield an absurd advantage for the 2018 Brewers: (1) Lewis Brinson’s high floor is real, and (2) Christian Yelich could experience some role depreciation. It’s always so easy to look at the best possible outcomes or potentialities in each trade; Brinson the future superstar, Yelich the 5.0 WARP player, but it’s also worth emphasizing Brinson’s risk in reaching his peak role and Yelich’s fluctuation between varying degrees of serviceable-to-great production.

Don’t get me wrong: Christian Yelich is a very good baseball player, and his contract makes him worth every potential prospect future that the Brewers surrendered. PECOTA thinks so, too, projecting Yelich primarily as a Brewers left fielder working a .279 TAv and serviceable fielding at a corner position. That’s good for 2.7 WARP, second only to Lorenzo Cain (3.5 WARP). But, remember that floor for Brinson? Even if the center fielder fails to reach his fullest and best hit tool (and therefore, fullest and best power) in the MLB, he’s still a speedy, strong defense, strong arm player in the center of the diamond. PECOTA projects Brinson at .262 TAv and an overall plus on defense for the Marlins, which is good for a club leading 2.5 WARP. This is great for both teams: the Brewers land a quality outfielder under control for five years who has already shown his developed peak abilities at the MLB level (while rounding out the club with a left-handed bat and better plate discipline), while Marlins fans immediately landed the face of their rebuild, the best player on their team, and (at best) someone who neutralizes the toxic offseason orchestrations of Project Wolverine.

Zach Davies and Orlando Arcia Remain Quietly Competitive
As mentioned, the Brewers contended in 2017 due to the “high floor” strengths of their youngsters: players like Orlando Arcia and Zach Davies were not set up to be immediate superstars, but still maintained quality, consistent MLB seasons that propelled the team along “behind the scenes.” PECOTA projects the same for 2018, although this time Zach Davies is leading the pitching staff with a solid 4.43 DRA over 170+ innings, good for a 1.6 WARP. Arcia sits behind Cain and Yelich in terms of overall WARP, but the young shortstop is projected to continue onward with excellent defense and a serviceable bat at shortstop. One could look at these players’ projections and emphasize that PECOTA sees them declining from their absolute 2017 WARP, but I don’t think the WARP is the point here. Instead, what matters is that this duo is still viewed as a quality backbone of the club, even with some attrition, which will undoubtedly serve crucial roles for grinding through 162.

The Outfield Depth is a Problem
Projecting the Brewers’ outfield depth was a nightmare. I previously wrote about how a rotational system can make five outfield spots work for Yelich, Cain, Santana, Ryan Braun, and Brett Phillips, but it’s much more difficult to put those ideals into the mixer and dissect the potential probabilities. Probability #1, which PECOTA currently projects sans Santana trade, is that Ryan Braun plays right field, but only some first base and left field, and therefore loses all of his defensive value. Both Braun and Santana suffer in this universe, creating a total of 1.9 WARP (but 75 extra base hits!) and TAv below .280. Comparable players for Domingo Santana are Oswaldo Arcia, Jonny Gomes, and Joc Pederson, and his plate discipline regresses (98 strike outs and 36 walks in 315 plate appearances). Granted, I do think there is still a path of optimism about the current roster depth (perhaps Braun works 1B more frequently, and Santana receives more regular playing time across the outfield, interleague designated hitter, and pinch hitting roles), but I do not think that means PECOTA is categorically mistaken for the pessimistic trends for Braun or Santana. After all, the current roster mash up is designed in a way to particularly showcase flaws for both Braun and Santana, which does not mean they’re bad baseball players (in fact, their TAv are projected to contend for best overall offensive production on the club), they simply may be imperfect ballplayers for this current roster.

Chase Anderson is Chase Anderson
There are many good stories about the 2017 Brewers, but it’s tough to find one that’s better than Anderson’s arrival as an impact starting pitcher. Anderson resonated with Brewers fans not simply because he was a previous low-to-mid rotation depth option who arrived as one of the very best pitchers in the National League, but because he also vindicated the mechanical, analytical, and strategic approach of pitching coach Derek Johnson. In 2018, PECOTA projects some of 2016 Anderson to return, particularly in the shape of walks, hits, and home runs, without phenomenal gains in strike outs or ground balls. Underlying modeling views Anderson as one of the most likely pitchers on the Brewers to “collapse” in 2018, and less likely to “improve,” and it’s not hard to squint and see a scenario in which a comparable of Dustin McGowan is suitable for the righty’s age-30 campaign. Even with all of this noted, Anderson’s DRA is projected at 4.59 for the year, which should be a better than average performance if the offensive environment holds steady. There is value in that performance over 168.0 innings pitched, and this type of season still validates the contract extension that Anderson signed.

The Bullpen is Fantastic
As a group, the primary Brewers bullpen as currently constructed looks fantastic. Josh Hader and Corey Knebel are projected as the most likely relievers to improve in 2018, but Jeremy Jeffress, Boone Logan, and Matt Albers also receive relatively strong scores in the category. The current main group is projected to produce a DRA below 4.30, which should demonstrate the potential for average or better production in most offensive environments that the arms face in 2018. Some red flags float beneath the surface, however, as the walk rates are slightly worse than average for the relief group, and outside of Adrian Houser, Jeffress, Albers, and Jacob Barnes the group is projected to have relatively low ground ball rates. Yet, even outside of Knebel and Hader the relievers are projected as a strong strike out group, suggesting that some of the slider-heavy moves of the offseason should pay dividends in high leverage situations.

Prospects Begin Appearing on the Scene
One of my favorite aspects of digging into PECOTA projections is the appearance of new faces to the MLB. Caden Lemons, Keston Hiura, KJ Harrison, and Tristen Lutz are all listed as highly improbable MLB players by PECOTA, but their appearance on the radar after the 2017 draft means that the system is now generating comparable players for this group. Jacob Nottingham was added to the 40-Man Roster at the beginning of the 2017-2018 offseason, and one of the comparable names that popped up in his player line is Jonathan Lucroy, which is fascinating for many reasons (not the least of which is Lucroy’s general reputation as a defense-first catcher for the beginning of his career, and Nottinghma’s floor as a back-up catcher with pop). Mauricio Dubon appears as one of the more probable MLB prospects for the club, and his line is a very serviceable utility infielder (.250 batting average, .380 slugging percentage).

Brewers fans might be most excited to see Corbin Burnes at the bottom of the club’s starting pitcher list with three starts, as the pop-up righty prospect is given relatively favorable odds to reach the MLB and a set of comparable players that effectively grade out his reliever risk, reliever potential, and (most excitingly) his starting pitching potential. Additionally, Adrian Houser is given lower odds of reaching the MLB in 2018, but seeing the power sinker reliever in the mix leads to an exciting scenario where the entire Carlos Gomez / Mike Fiers trade return is potentially playing with the Brewers during the same season.

It’s a good reminder that even though common perception is that the Brewers system took a big hit with the Christian Yelich trade, there is still an intriguing group of prospects potentially knocking at the door for 2018. Add an asterisk to this potential 83-win season, as one that exhibits contending-ready talent and depth roles that are still developing for more future success.

Photo Credit: Ken Blaze, USAToday Sports Images

Edit: Updated at 7:15 AM to reflect updated win total, from 84 to 83.

In the preseason, Baseball Prospectus alumnus Sam Miller published a fun perusal of the PECOTA oddities generated during playoffs odds simulations at ESPN. Of course, the Brewers were hardly on Miller’s radar, and no one can really blame him for that: it was a fun piece looking at the full league, and in that context it was just as entertaining to read about the Reds projections to beat the Cubs as it would be reading about the Brewers projections to beat the Cubs.

But the Brewers indeed won the division, quite a bit, during the simulations: the simulations placed the Brewers atop the NL Central in 350 of 5,000 simulations. Forget the fact that that means 93 percent of the time, Milwaukee did not win the division in 2017. What might reality hold in that seven percent?

Thanks to Jonathan Judge and Rob McQuown, I had the opportunity to peruse the Baseball Prospectus simulations to evaluate Brewers related oddities. It should be stated that the beauty of the projections is that the PECOTA preseason W-L for the Brewers indeed comprised a standard distribution within the projections. The average PECOTA winning percentage for the Brewers resulted in 78.7 wins; following the basic observation that one standard deviation for a baseball club’s record is approximately six wins, Brewers seasons from 84 wins to 72 wins comprise 3,510 (70.2 percent) of simulations, and Brewers seasons from 85 wins to 73 wins also comprise 3,510 simulations. This arc of win totals is glorious in its beauty.

[The Normal Curve]

[The Brewers Simulation Curve]

The fun with this projection system is that Milwaukee’s 2017 average W-L drawn from Daily Pythagorean W-L estimates (or, estimated W-L based on park adjusted runs scored and runs allowed) has hovered around 85 wins throughout the year. In other words, Milwaukee’s “true” 2017 pace stands on the normal curve projected by Baseball Prospectus (albeit on the highest end of one standard deviation), and that 85 win pace represented 182 results in the projections (3.6 percent).

On the other hand, the Brewers’ primary nemesis, those pesky Lakeview Nine, averaged a PECOTA winning percentage of approximately 89.5 entering 2017. While this seems like quite a stumble from the 107 win run differential that drove the 2016 campaign, the normal curve says it isn’t all bad for the Cubs. Taking the high end, simulations saw 3,503 seasons between 96 and 84 wins (70.1 percent) and 3,511 simulations between 95 and 83 wins (70.2 percent). Anyway, 274 simulations picked the Cubs with more than 100 wins (5.5 percent), so it’s not like PECOTA was picking on the Cubs (Chicago winning more than 100 games would be about as probable as Milwaukee winning 83 or 75 games, for example).

In an extremely important way, the 2017 season is not really a divergence in the respective narratives of the Cubs and Brewers. Milwaukee is on the high end of their most probable range of seasons during a year in which they were highly probable to improve anyway; Chicago is on the low end of their most probable range of seasons during a year that will be one of several in a true win-now window. The Cubs are indeed contenders, but maybe 2017 is the year they stumble a bit, with those bombastic Big Red Machine and Hall of Fame ruminations coming a bit too early. Obviously, “divergent paths on the normal curve” won’t sell newspaper headlines, so instead everyone will wonder “what’s wrong with the Cubs?” or “are the Brewers for real?” In the big picture? (a) Nothing is wrong with the Cubs, and (b) Yes, the Brewers are “for real.” It’s all along the normal curve.

Following the Sam Miller mold, let’s look at some simulations. We’ll get to some in which the Brewers won the division, but first let’s see some intriguing scenarios in which the Cubs did not win the division.

Simulation 940
There will undoubtedly be some bizarre distributions throughout 5,000 MLB season simulations, including some small market triumphs. Unfortunately, Simulation 940 saw Milwaukee unable to capitalize on a relatively competitive division, and the upstarts took a more traditional rebuilding path with 67 wins and the Second Overall pick in the 2018 Amateur Draft (the #WinNever faction would undoubtedly be thrilled with this result). But, the remaining season would have been fantastic, with success in Cincinnati, Cleveland, Tampa Bay, Oakland, and Minnesota.

It’s not terribly hard to squint and see this particular Brewers team. Maybe Jimmy Nelson takes another year to work on those mechanical shifts, or they don’t shift his performance as effectively as fans are currently witnessing. In this scenario, Eric Thames might not have a scorching hot April, Domingo Santana continues to struggle with strike zone contact, and the bullpen does not feature huge performances by Corey Knebel, Jacob Barnes, or a turnaround by Jarrod Hughes. This is not to criticize any of these players, but to recognize that baseball mechanics are always in motion, and perhaps the 67-win Brewers take a step back while everyone is ironing out their respective approaches.

Simulation 187
I picked this simulation while looking for seasons in which the Cubs finished last (there were 65 such simulations). Here, Milwaukee was unable to capitalize on a relatively weak division. What’s fascinating here is the three-way jam-packed NL West, the Tigers (presumably) as deadline buyers, and the Mets playing as NL East favorites.

So, an 83 win Brewers club would not be all that surprising in 2017, given the current position of the club. Should Milwaukee’s front office fail to add to the starting rotation or make an additional depth move to improve late game roster moves, a shift to about 83 wins would not be far from an expected regression back to the 85 win mean run differential. But it’s fun to look at projections and ask, “What could have gone differently for each 83 win Brewers club?” Maybe this 83 win club does not feature a Neftali Feliz meltdown, or Travis Shaw does not emerge as one of the best third basemen in the National League, or Ryan Braun plays a full and productive season that is offset by a bunch of plate appearances by prospects after the trade deadline.

Incidentally, if one considers the Brewers’ “true” daily run differential average of 85 wins to be a success, the 85 win projections were not always great by PECOTA’s standards. Milwaukee finished with 85 wins in 182 simulations (3.6 percent). Here’s a handful of fun seasons, with the forewarning that, given the current 2017 standings, simulations #491 and #4954 will look like disasters to Brewers fans:

What of the Brewers winning the division? Here are a few good ones…

Simulation 716
This one actually seems a bit mundane, considering that a Cubs rotation meltdown through the stretch run and a return of the offensive inconsistency does not make this particular NL Central picture all that unlikely in 2017. But I picked this one because the playoffs would be great:

Could you imagine the Phillies and Brewers repeating a playoff series a decade after Milwaukee stormed the Wild Card? This time both Philadelphia and Milwaukee would be upstart teams, which is kind of stunning when you think about it: despite having an almost certain mini-dynasty a decade ago, both clubs are now basically on a similar trajectory (rebuilding youthful team for future contending). I’m obviously 100 percent all-in on the Rays-Brewers World Series, which would certainly draw the greatest ratings of any Series in history.

Simulation 4267
Imagine the strengths of the current Brewers club, and add in perhaps a healthy and continually improving elite aging Ryan Braun, Junior Guerra and Zach Davies as their 2016 dynamic duo and Chase Anderson and Jimmy Nelson take a step forward. Perhaps Neftali Feliz does not metldown, leaving Jacob Barnes and Corey Knebel two wicked set-up men leading to the closer. It’s so easy to dream of everything going right, that it’s easy to forget that even 101 win teams have problems. Wouldn’t it be strange if the 101 win Brewers still did not have a Jonathan Villar sustained breakout in 2017? Or maybe the bullpen still has some trouble holding leads and it’s Jett Bandy, Hernan Perez, and the Brewers depth options that win late and close games.

In this scenario, perhaps the Brewers edge the Dodgers, knock off the defending Champion Cubs in a rowdy LCS, and face Jonathan Lucroy and the Texas Rangers in the World Series. How ya like rebuilding now, Johnny? In an almost certain press interview, Manny Pina would say, “catching Nelson, Anderson, Guerra, and Davies makes me feel like I got the keys to the Mercedes.”

Simulation 520
Just taking a quick divergence to say that I’d love to watch this divisional race:

Simulation 244
Indeed, it would not be a full exploration of the simulations if I ignored the Brewers’ projected Division Championship….with a losing record. Let’s dive in:

It’s tough to look at this list and not see the Brewers being dismissed in the playoffs. But, what fun is that? I’m guessing this 80 win Brewers club persevered through more bullpen turmoil, a starting rotation that couldn’t quite make it, and an inconsistent offense to hold off those pitching poor Cubs who just never improved in 2017. Here, I’d take the Twins-Brewers World Series (if Milwaukee gets out of the first round). Overall, this is an interesting twist on the Pythagorean Ideal that the Brewers and Cubs are on a crash course for finishing within one game of one another; it would be fascinating if both clubs backed into the division race.

Simulation 1823
Back to an extremely competent Brewers club, this time visiting all of the ghosts of playoffs past:

This Brewers club gets the chance to knock off former playoff nemeses Arizona or St. Louis, and perhaps exorcise the Phillies demons within the same playoffs. After that trip through the National League playoffs, I’m imaging the Brewers facing their former city, Seattle, in an epic World Series. Given both clubs’ respective win totals, I’m imagining Junior Guerra facing off against Hisashi Iwakuma in the battle of former age-31 splitter ball rookies.

Those 90 win Brewers are not too far off in the distance, just a few notches beyond the normal curve. If 2017 persists, the club can beat the Cubs without either club straying from the normal distribution of their talent. But that’s not to say anyone would complain if Milwaukee kicked it into overdrive, allowing the improbable to become something greater in 2017.

Photo Credit: David Banks, USAToday Sports Images

Thank you to Jonathan Judge and Rob McQuown for helping me out! All good ideas & data here are thanks to them, all mistakes & bad ideas are mine.