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		<title>Introducing Catchella using Jonathan Lucroy Part I: Behind the Dish</title>
		<link>http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/01/12/introducing-catchella-using-jonathan-lucroy-part-i-behind-the-dish/</link>
		<comments>http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/01/12/introducing-catchella-using-jonathan-lucroy-part-i-behind-the-dish/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 12 Jan 2016 14:30:41 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Michael Bradburn]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Best Catching Seasons]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Catch The Fever]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Catchella]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Data]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jonathan Lucroy]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=3184</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[As you hopefully know by now, Catchella launched today at Baseball Prospectus. If you are unfamiliar, folks who are much smarter than I am have labored hard to finally quantify en masse the defensive contributions of a catcher. The importance of this in baseball circles is hard to overstate. Other metrics &#8212; like Ultimate Zone [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>As you hopefully know by now, Catchella launched today at <em>Baseball Prospectus.</em> If you are unfamiliar, folks who are much smarter than I am have labored hard to finally quantify en masse the defensive contributions of a catcher. The importance of this in baseball circles is hard to overstate. Other metrics &#8212; like Ultimate Zone Rating &#8212; have long over-looked the men behind the plate.</p>
<p>While there have been some attempts to measure a catcher&#8217;s control of the running game (rSB for Stolen Base Runs Saved) in Defensive Runs Saved, metrics as comprehensive as SRAA and TRAA do a much fairer job. StatCorner has had success measuring catcher&#8217;s framing abilities and turning that into RAA, but BP&#8217;s CSAA can now be folded into WARP. ESPN <a href="http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/12880518/mlb-best-game-caller-dodgers-catcher-aj-ellis">released an attempt</a> to measure the ability to call a game that crowned A.J. Ellis as king. With game-calling being so difficult to quantify, <em>Baseball Prospectus&#8217;</em> Catchella opted for the more reasonable ability to block pitches in EPAA. Add all four together and we are much closer to a more comprehensive understanding a catcher&#8217;s contributions to the game through wins above replacement than we&#8217;ve ever been before.</p>
<p>However, what brought us here wasn&#8217;t an explanation of the statistics. [Their methodology will be laid out expertly already in posts on the main site.] Instead, we&#8217;re more concerned where Jonathan Lucroy ranks compared to his peers.</p>
<h4>Jonathan Lucroy: Behind the Dish</h4>
<p>In this first part, you will learn how Lucroy stacks up to the competition. However, more specifically, this post will analyze how Lucroy performed in two key areas: CSAA and EPAA. Part two, which is authored by Xavier Alatorre, will be taking a more in-depth look at Lucroy&#8217;s SRAA and TRAA &#8212; more broadly, his ability to prevent greedy baserunners.</p>
<p>This article will solely focus on Lucroy&#8217;s job behind the plate. The job he could do hypothetically &#8212; though I wouldn&#8217;t suggest it &#8212; without his throwing arm. CSAA stands for Called Strikes Above Average. It, as you may have already intuited, measures a catcher&#8217;s ability to frame pitches. Turning balls into strikes has been the catching hot topic for the last half-decade as framing has entered somewhat of a golden age. EPAA stands for Errant Pitches Above Average. It measures a catcher&#8217;s ability to block wild pitches or prevent passed balls. Arguably the newest idea of the four to quantify.</p>
<h4>What do the rate stats say about Lucroy?</h4>
<p>It depends. Let&#8217;s start with the overall picture. There&#8217;s no way that Lucroy &#8212; who has six seasons in the big leagues &#8212; will place anywhere near the top, right?</p>
<p>By the rate version of CSAA &#8212; which we know to be reliable back until 1988 &#8212; Lucroy ranks third. The catcher we&#8217;ve watched grow up in the Milwaukee Brewers organization is the third-best framing catcher since 1988.</p>
<p>There are a couple quick things to take away from this, though. First, Lucroy is still young, so his rate statistics will be somewhat higher than what would otherwise be expected. By this, I mean that Lucroy hasn&#8217;t progressed far enough into his aging curve to see his defensive prowess regress with deteriorating abilities. Aging isn&#8217;t kind to any baseball player, but especially catchers. Second, this passes a very general eye-test. The players Lucroy is ranked around &#8212; Christian Vazquez, Yasmani Grandal, Jose Molina &#8212; are known in narrative as elite defensive catchers. We can better trust these numbers because they already jive with the general consensus.</p>
<p>What about by EPAA? As for blocking errant pitches, Lucroy ranks just barely above the mean. EPAA &#8212; which uses components that we can trust all the way back to 1950 &#8212; isn&#8217;t as kind to Lucroy. However, that&#8217;s not bad news, as his ability is right around Buster Posey&#8217;s level. Furthermore, he has still saved his team runs this way. Other names around that rank are Yan Gomes, Gary Carter, and Craig Biggio.</p>
<p>But how many runs has that translated into?</p>
<h4>Where does Lucroy actually rank?</h4>
<p>Rate stats are immensely fun, but converting them into runs saved and, eventually, wins gained is the real entertaining part.</p>
<p>Starting with EPAA, Lucroy has saved the Brewers 3.2 runs worth of errant pitches. While that doesn&#8217;t sound like a lot, let&#8217;s put that into context. Lucroy has had 26,641 chances in the big leagues to block errant pitches. As previously discussed, he&#8217;s done so at basically a league-average rate. However, given that many chances of being just barely better than the mean grants you nearly one-third of a win of production, just in preventing errant pitches.</p>
<p>For further context, remember that Gary Carter&#8217;s rate score was similar? If they stay similar going forward and Lucroy accumulates as many chances as Carter &#8212; a whopping 75,678 &#8212; the Brewers catcher could surpass the Montreal Expos great for ninth all-time. That&#8217;s right, Carter is ninth in all-time EPAA, right behind Jason Varitek and right ahead of Yogi Berra. What an amazing list!</p>
<p>Which brings us to the CSAA. How many actual runs has Lucroy&#8217;s framing ability generated? His CSAA already ranks among the best, but are his attempts enough? Lucroy&#8217;s framing ability has saved the Brewers 161.2 total runs. That&#8217;s good enough for fifth all-time. Behind the very elite company of Jose Molina, Brad Ausmus, Russell Martin, and Brian McCann. That&#8217;s correct: Yadier Molina.</p>
<h4>The crescendo of this symphony</h4>
<p>Career measures aren&#8217;t all, though. Catchella has been separated into all-time great seasons as well. And if the above hasn&#8217;t already given you a new appreciation for Lucroy, it&#8217;s time to re-calibrate once more.</p>
<p>In 2011, Lucroy posted the best-ever mark in CSAA yet to be measured. He saved 49.8 runs with his framing alone. Nearly five wins worth! Second place isn&#8217;t really even that close. Brian McCann&#8217;s 2008 campaign ranks second at 41.1 runs and his 2007 season is third at 37.8 runs.</p>
<p>Whether that&#8217;s enough to make 2011 the best season by a catcher ever or not will have to be settled in Part II.</p>
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