Within the draft, the first 10 rounds are considered to be the most important for the selecting teams. Each of the 300+ picks inside those rounds comes with a bonus slot value attached, and the slot values add up for each team to create their bonus pool for signing players. It is imperative for teams that the players they select in the first 10 rounds sign a professional contract, otherwise the team not only loses out on that drafted player, but also has to subtract the slot value of that pick from their bonus pool. In 2017, only three players selected in the top 10 rounds failed to sign with the team that drafted them. One of those young men was Drew Rasmussen, a right-handed pitcher from Oregon State selected by the Tampa Bay Rays at #31 overall.

Rasmussen arrived at Oregon State as a freshman back in 2015 and immediately hit the ground running in his college career. During his first year on campus he tossed 106.0 frames in 19 appearances (14 starts) for the Beavers, working to a 2.80 ERA. He pitched the first perfect game in OSU history against Washington State, was a freshman All-American and made the Pac-12 First Team. He began his sophomore season in the Beavers’ rotation and during his first six starts he compiled a 3.41 ERA in 37.0 innings, but with an improved 42:10 K/BB ratio and a sub-1.00 WHIP. Then disaster struck in March, and the right-hander heard a pop in his elbow. He needed Tommy John surgery.

The righty was able to work his way back from the procedure relatively quickly and returned to the mound after only about 13 months post-op. Oregon State was one of the top collegiate teams in the nation during the 2017 season and Rasmussen was indeed able to contribute, first in a bullpen role while rebuilding his strength and stamina before returning to the rotation. All together he wound up appearing in eight games, starting four of them, and logging 27.0 innings. He yielded only a 1.00 ERA and stuck out 26 batters against just five walks, once again posting a sub-1.00 WHIP while displaying remarkable control so soon after his surgery. Rasmussen recorded two saves and three winning decisions while helping OSU earn the #1 seed in the College World Series.

Post-surgery, Rasmussen was boasting a plus fastball in the 92-96 MPH range, touching 98 and with good extension, according to MLB Pipeline. He was getting swings and misses with his heater while also flashing a solid changeup and slider. He has a starter’s build at 6’2″ and 225 lbs and an easy delivery with a pretty standard high three-quarters release point, which helped lead to pretty effective control around the strike zone. Even with his previous surgery, the profile was strong enough for the Rays to use their Competitive Balance Round A pick on Rasmussen, which came with a $2,134,900 slot bonus value.

After the draft, however, some concerns arose over discrepancies between his pre- and post-draft physicals. Tampa Bay’s main concern was his surgically repaired elbow. The two sides were unable to come to an agreement, and Rasmussen’s request to become an MLB free agent was denied due to his two remaining years of college eligibility. So he prepared to return to Oregon State for what would be his redshirt junior season. But the elbow issues that the Rays deemed worrisome enough to let the righty walk proved to be significant; he required a second Tommy John procedure in August of 2017.

Not surprisingly, Rasmussen wound up missing the entire 2018 campaign for OSU while recovering and rehabbing from another significant surgery. Even though he didn’t take the mound at all, his scouting report when healthy and previous work for Oregon State had outlets like Baseball America (#109) and MLB Pipeline (#200) convinced that the former first-round pick was still one of the top draft prospects out there. He wound up falling to day two, and with their 6th round pick in the 2018 MLB Draft, the Milwaukee Brewers selected Drew Rasmussen at #185 overall.

Although it’s not official yet, the belief is that Rasmussen will sign with Milwaukee this summer (for potentially below the pick #185 slot value of $251,700) rather than return to school and try the draft again next season, when he’ll be a 23 year old senior sign without any negotiating leverage. Rasmussen told  Brad Ford at Brew Crew Ball that he hasn’t advanced to the point in his rehab where he is even playing catch yet, and that he was waiting to take that next step until he knew what organization he would be a part of. Now the Brewers and their award-winning medical staff will be able to guide him through a recovery and throwing program to get him back to full strength.

Most scouts believe that Rasmussen’s medical history will force him into relief as a professional, although Drew himself says that the Brewers have not yet given him any indication either way as to whether he’ll be in a bullpen role or a starter once he’s fully healthy. He has had plenty of experience, and success, in both spots. For what it’s worth, he says he prefers the structure of being a rotational pitcher although the variability of coming out of the bullpen can be exciting.

The Brewers may have landed themselves one of the most compelling prospects in the draft, a first-round talent with the stuff to be a successful starter who plummeted down draft boards and missed out on a couple million dollars due to injury. The club has been extremely cautious in bringing back their young arms from such dramatic afflictions and we shouldn’t expect to see Rasmussen make his professional debut until sometime in 2019. But the successful rehabs of Taylor Williams and Adrian Houser, both of whom have contributed at the MLB level this season after undergoing Tommy John surgery within the past two years, should help inspire some confidence that Milwaukee’s medical staff can help Drew Rasmussen get back to 100 percent. Once he’s healthy, he’ll be one prospect whose development I’ll certainly be watching closely.

As storylines can change quickly in the big leagues, so too can they on the minor league and development side of the game. As has been discussed many times over on BPMilwaukee, prospect development is a non-linear process. Professional baseball is a game of constant adjustments. For some players it takes longer to figure out how to adapt to more difficult opponents as they work their way up the organizational ladder; and unfortunately for most, the ability to continue adjusting and improving hits a wall before reaching the MLB. That’s part of the reason why it’s so difficult for clubs to rely on the MLB Draft as a mechanism for consistently producing quality major league contributors.

Milwaukee’s former scouting director, the late Bruce Seid, drew plenty of criticism for his handling of the draft during his tenure with the Brewers. Even post-mortem, Seid’s drafts still come under fire from time to time. One such instance was in ESPN’s ranking of baseball’s top farm systems before the 2017 began. Keith Law praised the Brewers’ collection of minor league talent while ranking them #6 overall, but felt the need to get critical towards the end of his write-up:

“They need to see more return on the July 2 market, as their one big signing there, Gilbert Lara, is off to a rough start to his pro career, and they have no one else from that avenue in their top 20. Their 2014 draft class has been similarly unproductive to date. But what the new regime has accomplished in a short period of time gives the Brewers a chance to keep pace with their better-heeled competitors in the NL Central.”

Law’s shot at Seid’s 2014 class may not exactly have been necessary, but entering this season it would be hard to argue it was untrue. However, what at that time had been a two year developmental period is far too soon to write off a draft class, especially one that was focused on prep talents at the top.

Milwaukee’s prospects from the 2014 class must not have taken kindly to Law’s denunciation, because the group as a whole has taken a significant step forward during a wildly successful 2017 campaign. Let’s go through some of the highlights:

Round 1 (#12) – LHP Kodi Medeiros

After a disastrous showing with Brevard County last season, Medeiros has rebounded quite well during his second run through high-A ball. His ugly 5.07 ERA hides the significant improvements he’s seen with his strikeout (6.8 K/9 to 9.1 K/9) and walk rates (6.7 BB/9 to 3.5 BB/9) from last year to this season; his WHIP has also plummeted from 1.94 to 1.26. DRA says Medeiros should be a 3.98 pitcher and rates him at 12 percent better than the Carolina League average in 2017. He’s likely to still ultimately be a reliever when all is said and done, but Kodi still shows a mid-90s fastball and plus slider that can give batters fits coming from his Hader-esque low three-quarters arm slot.

Round 1 (#41) – INF Jake Gatewood

Gatewood famously got contact lenses before the 2017 season after vision tests revealed his eye sight had deteriorated since he was drafted, and they’ve apparently made all the difference. He’s finally been able to make enough consistent contact to tap into the considerable raw power that he possesses, clubbing Carolina League pitching to the tune of a .281 TAv with 11 home runs and a .169 ISO, a full-season best for him. He’s taking walks this season at better than twice the rate he did previously, too. Baseball America recently rated Gatewood as the Carolina League’s top defensive first baseman, and now that he’s been promoted to AA Biloxi he should be able to see more time at his other position of third base, too. As Greg Goldstein recently noted, there’s still plenty of risk with Gatewood given his high swing-and-miss tendencies, but he has the type of raw power that is rarely seen in prospects these days.

Round 2 (#50) – OF Monte Harrison

Since he was drafted, scouts have raved about Harrison’s raw tools. The biggest issue for the 22 year old has been staying on the field, which he has finally been able to for a full season in 2017. Now fully healthy after missing large chunks of time in 2015 and 2016, Harrison has provided a glimpse of what it could look like if he actualizes those tools. He began the season by torching the Midwest League, bopping 11 home runs and swiping 11 bags while compiling a .307 TAv in 261 plate appearances. A midseason promotion to Carolina did little to slow him down, as he’s clubbed another 8 dingers and stolen 7 more bases along with a .295 TAv in 150 PAs. Steve Givarz recently wrote that Harrison is one of the best athletes in Milwaukee’s system and that his tools could “rival that of Lewis Brinson’s” – the guy that Milwaukee refused to part with for Sonny Gray.

Round 4 (#116) – OF Troy Stokes

Another toolsy outfielder drafted as a prep player, Stokes is a diminutive prospect standing at just 5’8″ tall. He packs plenty of punch into that small frame though, and it’s finally started to show through this season after implementing a mechanical change at the dish. Stokes has worked to establish himself as one of the more intriguing power-speed combos in the system in 2017, launching 14 home runs and stealing 21 bases in 100 games with Carolina while posting a .289 TAv. That showing recently earned him a promotion to AA Biloxi, where he’s slugged another 2 homers and stolen 2 more bags in 11 games so far. Stokes doesn’t have near the amount of swing-and-miss in his game as many other advanced Brewer prospects, either, which is a refreshing change-of-pace within an organization that hasn’t seemed to place much concern on hit tool utility under the David Stearns regime.

Round 11 (#326) – RHP Brandon Woodruff

One area that Seid excelled in while with the Brewers was spotting talent outside the top rounds of the draft, and the early returns suggest that Woodruff is well on his way to becoming another late-round gem for the franchise. The 24 year old shot up prospect lists with his breakout season last year, jumping into the top-100’s of both Baseball America and MLB Pipeline before recently making his MLB debut. Woodruff has allowed just two earned runs thus far through 12.0 MLB innings pitched in two starts after posting a 3.48 DRA (66 DRA-) in 15 starts for Colorado Springs. Armed with a mid-90s fastball, above-average slider, and improving changeup along plus command projections, Woodruff has the chance to develop into an effective mid-rotation starter for the Milwaukee Nine.

Round 12 (#356) – RHP Jordan Yamamoto

Yamamoto enjoyed a strong season last year in Appleton and has carried that success over into the 2017 season with Carolina. In 78.0 innings for the Mudcats, the 6’0″ righty has 3.46 ERA and 3.10 DRA, good for a DRA- of 69. He’s continued to miss bats at a nice clip while striking out 9.1 per nine innings and doesn’t issue too many free passes, just 2.8 BB/9 this year. Yamamoto features a 4-pitch arsenal of a low-90s fastball, slider, changeup, and a curveball which he has made significant strides with this season. 2080 Baseball‘s scouts offered the ceiling of a back-end starter for Yamamoto in their preseason organizational review; advancing a level in 2017 and experiencing significant success as a 21 year old in high-A should help take some of the risk out of that projection.

Just as it was too early for Law to write off Milwaukee’s 2014 draft class, it is of course still too early to know for certain if the Brewers will be able to reap any significant MLB value from this group of players. Still, we should be quite encouraged by the notable improvements that these guys appear to have made. Woodruff became the first player from Milwaukee’s class to reach the big leagues and appears to have a bright future ahead of him. As for the rest of this batch, how they handle the full-season jump from high-A to AA next season will go a long in determining if they’ll become useful big leaguers. There’s plenty of upside left to be tapped into with Milwaukee’s 2014 class, and if things continue to play out as they have this season then the complicated legacy of Bruce Seid will most certainly be seen in a more positive light.

Although Brewers fans are years away from knowing whether these picks worked out, it is worth taking a look at who the Brewers used their first five picks on.

2B/LF Keston Hiura, Round 1, Pick 9
Hiura is a college junior from UC Irvine, ranked #14 by BaseballAmerica. He grew up in Valencia California. He turns twenty-one at the beginning of August.

Hiura was a top-ten pick due largely to his bat. He set the UCI batting average record at .442 this season. His batting average improved in each season at UCI. He doubled his walk total from the 2016 season to the 2017 season, going from 25 to 50. Hiura displayed modest power in his time at Irvine, but relied mostly on high double numbers and solid contact.

Hiura doesn’t have a set position. He has spent time in centerfield and at second base. He spent most of this spring at designated hitter due to an elbow injury, which left some experts concerned about the lingering effects of the injury. In Hiura, the Brewers got an established college hitter, who they likely wouldn’t have taken if they had any concerns over his injury.

Tristen Lutz, CBA, Pick 34
Lutz is still just 18 years old, he turns 19 in August. He is an outfielder from Arlington Texas, ranked 35th overall by BaseballAmerica. He is a big kid. He has a 6-foot-3, 210 pound frame and uses all of it to hit for big power. He played centerfield in high school but because of his lack of speed is expected to make the move to a corner spot.

Lutz has a long time to develop before he is anywhere close to the big leagues, but on tools and potential alone he has one of the brightest outlooks in this years draft.

Caden Lemons, Round 2, Pick 46
Lemons is a tall, right-handed pitcher high school pitcher from Vestavia Hills, Alabama. BaseballAmerican ranked Lemons 57th. He showed up this Spring with a velocity bump, hitting as high as 97 MPH on occasions. He is also just 18-years-old, and doesn’t turn 19 until December, leaving him plenty of time to grow into his 6-foot-6-inch frame and possibly add a couple miles per hour to his fastball.

Lutz is a long-term project, but if everything goes right he has the body and the fastball to be a major league contributor one day.

KJ Harrison, Round 3, Pick 84, ranked 68^th by Baseball America
Harrison is a soon-to-be twenty-one-year-old college junior from Hawaii, who played his college ball at Oregon State University.

He is listed as a catcher but did not spend much time behind the plate his junior year. He was drafted for his offensive skills, not his ability to hold his own in the gear. He spent most of the year at first base. Some scouts believe he can make his way back behind the plate, according to MLB.com.

The Brewers seem to be betting on his catching abilities. If he can develop his defensive skills behind the plate the Brewers might have just found a steal of an offensive catcher in KJ Harrison.

Brendan Murphy, Round 4, pick 114
Murphy is a high school senior from Mundelein, Illinois. He’s regarded as the top prospect from Illinois in this year’s draft, and BaseballAmerica ranked him 119th. He’s a left handed pitcher with a three pitch mix. He doesn’t turn 19 until January first, he still has plenty of time to grow and mature as a pitcher. His fastball sits in the low 90s. He uses a changeup to complement his fastball along with a slow breaking-ball.

Murphy is as polished as a high school arm will get. Like many of the Brewers earlier picks, there is a lot of time to develop for this teenager but he has a solid head start as far as pitch arsenal goes.

@AdamMcCalvy This organization needs pitching and then more pitching not another left fielder. Good grief.

— USMCforcerecon (@usmcforcerecon2) June 9, 2016

@Brewers @FutureIs_Bright @GoCards Hmm. You can never have enough pitching; pitching wins ball games, as they say…

— Greg Peck (@GazOpMatters) June 9, 2016

Oh, positional need, they cried from the rooftops! We need pitching, not more outfielders! Of course, the sort of folks who make such proclamations are more typically found calling into drive-time sports talk radio programs or in the comments section of an ESPN article, not reading an article on Baseball Prospectus, even one written by a silly fan who concocts wild conspiracies about dog mascots. However, there’s still something worth discussing when it comes how the draft fits into the Brewers rebuilding process and at the very least, I’ll give you something to link to when your less learned pals demand you cite your sources to disprove their wrong opinions. Here’s how Ray could become the Brewers staff ace of the future.

The obvious difference between the MLB draft and drafts in other major American professional sports is the lag time between being drafted and actually appearing on the major league team. NBA and NFL draftees typically make the team straight out of the draft, and first round picks are generally expected to take on major roles from day one. For this reason, drafting teams in those sports rightly consider level of talent and positional need. MLB draftees almost never appear in the big leagues right away. Since 1990, only 17 players have made their major league debut in the same year they were drafted – the last Brewer to do so was Rickie Weeks in 2003. The average position player has over 2000 plate appearances under his belt before making his major league debut, and the average pitcher has tossed nearly 400 innings. With an average gap of about four years between the draft and a player’s MLB debut, it’s silly to assume you can know what positions will be of need nearly half a decade in the future.

Of course a prospect’s value doesn’t lie only in how he can contribute directly the team effort on the field. Consider the 2007 Brewers, who spent their first round pick on first baseman Matt LaPorta. This, despite having Prince Fielder in the fold, who at 23 years old was already one of the best first basemen in the league. How foolish for a team seemingly on the edge of a long-awaited window of contention to use the seventh overall pick on a position at which they were already set long term! Of course LaPorta never played a game for the Brewers, and was instead the centerpiece of a trade that brought C.C. Sabathia to the Brewers just over a year later. LaPorta never quite worked out in Cleveland, so the bulk of his value to major league teams was not in his on-field contributions, but in the potential teams believed he had.

So Corey Ray may someday contribute to the major league team as a very good outfielder, which is presumably Plan A today. Or it could be Plan B, and he could contribute by being part of a trade that brings a major league player to Milwaukee that fills a need when the time comes. Or he could bust out and provide little to no value to the major league team at all, which we’ll call Plan E in honor of Eric Arnett. I don’t particularly like Plan E, but there’s something to be said for being prepared for all outcomes. Today, Ray is probably fifth or sixth on the organization’s long-term outfield depth chart behind Ryan Braun, Domingo Santana, Brett Phillips and Trent Clark. With Milwaukee’s next contention window and Ray’s MLB debut still over the horizon, however, there’s a lot that could change before we arrive at either.