Related Reading:
Counterbuilding: Trading and Drafting
The Successful Rebuild

Better yet, depending on how one views revenue expectations from the 2018 season, the Brewers likely increased their share of labor spending to approximately 40 percent, based on publicly available information and various trend forecasts (from conservative to aggressive). All of this precludes the MLB Advanced Media money, which undoubtedly gives the Brewers ownership group more cash to leverage for both capital and labor projects.

[quick rant]Brewers, increase minor league pay! Pay your minor leaguers a living wage across all systems![/quick rant]

Of course, one of the difficult aspects of navigating the 2018-2019 offseason is that in order to increase the labor share of the club, Milwaukee actually had to go out and sign some players. So some previously rosy payroll estimates may be pushed back a few years (click that link if you’d like payroll analysis with Lewis Brinson arbitration horizon estimates): but this is a good thing, because the Brewers are in better shape with Lorenzo Cain and Christian Yelich patrolling the outfield, and they’re also in better shape with clearer salary arbitration pictures for Corey Knebel, Travis Shaw, and even Jonathan Schoop.

The trouble is, without assuming that the Brewers will allocate full playoff revenue, and an increasing share of overall revenue, to the MLB payroll, the 2018-2019 offseason might look a little boring if the club simply renews each and every one of their arbitration eligible players. Here’s how this group looks, with Cot’s Baseball Contracts estimates:

Without major revenue growth, and considering a similar distribution of revenue to labor, this is how the Brewers payroll freedom might project:

It is evident that on the most conservative estimates, the Brewers cannot keep each arbitration eligible player and sign additional impact free agents. This raises questions about how the Brewers will employ trade and non-tender (basically releasing an arbitration-eligible player for free) strategies to maximize space, while also raising questions about how lucrative the playoffs were, where that MLBAM money will kick in, and how the club will (or did) allocate profits from 2016-2017.

For if the most rosy scenario plays out, the Brewers could keep a substantially larger portion of arbitration eligible players, and continue to add impact talent on the open market. Thus, there is room across the roster for GM David Stearns to wheel and deal. This is a great time for counterbuilding, which basically means making trades that run contrary to the assumed roster building strategy of the team. If a rebuilding team is expected to trade MLB salary for prospects, and a win-now trade reverses that by bundling prospects for MLB salary, those positions can be mixed in contrarian fashion to help maximize roster resources. Given that the Brewers have the opportunity to develop numerous players at the MLB level in 2019, some (seemingly) head-scratching trades would be a great way to free up additional salary in order to bolster the prospects with gambles on more proven producers.

Stearns developed a contending club so quickly by trading for MLB assets in his first offseason; now the GM can ironically continue to maintain the health of his MLB roster forecast by shedding some salaries for prospects or depth moves. Given the strengths of the 2018 club, this could be just the strategy necessary to improve around the margins, develop top prospects, and land one big ticket free agent.

In 2017, Jonathan Villar performed so badly that the club had to bring in Neil Walker to play second base while they pushed for the playoffs.  Although they fell short and missed the wild card game, Walker performed admirably.  In 38 games with Milwaukee, Walker posted a .305 True Average (TAv) and was worth 0.9 Wins Above Replacement Player (WARP).  One win from Walker in a quarter of the season is a good output, as it represented an upgrade over Villar’s season-long .242 TAv and 0.8 WARP.

As we are all aware, though, the Brewers have not yet re-signed Walker.  The only infield transactions they’ve made have been re-signing Eric Sogard and adding Mauricio Dubon to the 40-man roster.  Both Sogard and Dubon profile as more utility types than everyday second basemen, though, so their presence should not preclude an actual upgrade.  Both are capable of playing the position, but neither is good enough that the Brewers—a team with playoff aspirations—should be satisfied.

Walker is the most obvious solution.  He is not a superstar, but he is a solid player, and he may be available on a shorter, one- or two-year deal because the free agent market has collapsed.  From 2013 through 2016, Walker had been worth between 2.9 and 3.5 WARP.  That is a valuable player, and that level of consistency would be useful for a team that will be relying on some high-variability players (Lewis Brinson, Orlando Arcia) for their playoff push in 2018.  Even during last season, which was a down year by Walker’s standards, was not actually that bad, as his cumulative 1.7 WARP still made him worthy of a roster spot.

But as I mentioned above, the offseason is coming to a close, and the Brewers are running out of time.  This doesn’t matter so much if Walker is the solution, because the free agent market as a whole is moving slowly.  But if Walker signs elsewhere, the late date in the calendar makes working on a contingency plan more difficult.  Free agents are likely to sign quickly once the dominoes start falling simply because of the lack of time left in the winter, and the second base free agent market is not that deep.  There just aren’t that many exciting options; Danny Espinosa is the only one who appears slightly intriguing.

This late stature in the offseason also matters because it decreases the amount of time for a potential trade.  I don’t know what the Brewers front office is working on, and I imagine they are working on upgrades at basically every position.  But they cannot be pursuing every angle at once, so if Walker is the first choice, then pivoting to finding trade partners will still take some time.

Spring training is quite long, so one could argue that there is no need to make a move in the next month anyway.  A spring training trade, or even an April trade, would bring in a player early enough that the Brewers’ overall season would not be impacted.  The front office does not stop working once spring training starts or Opening Day arrives, so whether reinforcements arrive on January 30 or March 30 may not matter all that much.  The timing of these moves do matter, though, because the Brewers are at a bit of a crossroads in terms of how willing they are to push for the playoffs this year.  If they are waiting until March or April to address this kind of need, then they are unlikely to also be investing resources in a starting pitcher.  Thus, while the timing of when exactly a new second baseman arrives is mostly irrelevant, it would be indicative of the club’s broader strategy.

This article works on the assumption that an upgrade is needed, and I think the club believes that as well.  David Stearns has proven himself too smart to think that Eric Sogard is a long-term option; despite his 1.257 OPS in May, he finished the year with an OPS of just .770.  Even this was over one hundred points higher than his career mark of .638.  Mauricio Dubon is unproven, and questions remain about his bat.  The Brewers seem to love Hernan Perez, but he has a career .244 TAv, and he backslid from his seeming improvement in 2016.  That leaves Villar, who had a disappointing year and appears to have lost the club’s trust.  Even though he ended the season well (.888 OPS following the Walker trade), he could not regain his playing time, as he got only 63 plate appearances in the last 42 games of the season.  Villar was given a long rope, as no move was made to replace him until mid-August, but the rope did look as if it ran out.

Craig Counsell’s use of Villar in August and September suggests to me that the club does not view him as a solution at second base.  If that is the case, then an external option must be in the cards.  Because of the glacial pace of the free agent market, though, if Neil Walker is not that player, the Brewers are running out of time to find a backup.

Photo Credit: Charles LeClaire, USAToday Sports Images

The Brewers have money to spend. They still have just $39.9 million committed before arbitration contracts, projected to cost roughly $21 million, for a total of $61 million. Considering the club drew over two million fans once again in 2016, there should be room in the budget for at least one or two more acquisitions, even if they are smaller deals on a similar scale as the Thames contract. Relief pitchers are usually considered the last piece necessary for a rebuilding franchise like Milwaukee. However, due to their typically short-term contracts, relievers are the perfect fit for the Brewers budget at this point.

One of the clearest goals of David Stearns’s rebuilding efforts has been to create financial flexibility in the future. Ryan Braun and Thames are the only players under contract past 2017, and given the rumor mill since back in the regular season, it wouldn’t be surprising if Braun’s contract isn’t long for the books. Without any lingering major contracts stuffing the payroll, the Brewers will be able to strike in the free agent market when they have a strong enough core to make a playoff run.

It’s understandable for fans of teams in this situation to dislike the idea of long, committal offers for free agents, a vast majority of whom are in the decline phases of their careers. But teams have very few resources with which to get better. Recent changes to the collective bargaining agreement like bonus pools for draft picks and restrictive amateur bonus caps are leaving teams with only one talent market to throw their cash at: major league free agents.

If the Brewers don’t push their payroll to its limit, they’re leaving cards on the table. Since they understandably don’t want to make a long-term commitment, relievers are an ideal investment. There is always a robust midseason trade market for them, and contenders will be willing to overpay for short-term improvements. And veteran relief presence does have value on a rebuilding team like Milwaukee’s, as they can soak up innings and help the club avoid overworking their developing younger pitchers.

The names connected to the Brewers include many former closers. Most interesting are the post-injury reclamation projects like Greg Holland and Neftali Feliz. There are also some older players like Santiago Casilla, Sergio Romo, or Koji Uehara who may be looking for their last contract and could be signed for a less committal one or two year deal. All of these players could develop huge trade value should they win the Brewers closing role and succeed to begin the 2017 season.

Whatever the Brewers decide, there are good options out there. This club makes too much money for them to sit on their hands with a minimal payroll. If they want to acquire enough talent to contend with the big guns in this division, a Cubs team that virtually prints money and a Cardinals team often hailed as the best-run in baseball, they can’t afford to waste any resources. That free agent money, if well spent, will turn into talent down the road.

An important aspect of the Cubs transition from rebuilding team to contender was their decision to enter the free agent market. Addison Russell, Kris Bryant, and Anthony Rizzo are excellent players, but they obviously needed help; no organization can create the necessary depth to build a World Series team just from internal options (save maybe the 2008 Rays). The Cubs developed all the talent they could, but they knew they still had certain needs that they had not addressed, with starting pitching being key among them. They subsequently went into the free agent market and signed Jon Lester, and then John Lackey.

It is worth noting that the Cubs purposely forewent pitching; when they traded their big leaguers for minor leaguers during Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer’s first couple years, they appear to have prioritized getting back position players. The Jeff Samardzija (for Addison Russell) and Matt Garza (for Mike Olt, although Carl Edwards also came in that trade) trades are good examples. They also spent their high draft picks on position players, taking Kris Bryant when Jon Gray–who some had rated higher than Bryant–was still available. The Brewers, though, are not doing this, especially with regard to trades.

Unless Milwaukee decides to trade Ryan Braun, Jonathan Lucroy was the club’s last big trade chip heading into this new competitive window. He was also therefore their last big chance to retool the farm system and add to it. But the club’s two biggest trades in the last year-plus–Lucroy and Carlos Gomez–have included pitchers as significant pieces and not just hitters. The addition of Josh Hader and Luis Ortiz enhanced the organization’s pitching depth, and it has also signified a departure from the Cubs’ strategy.

There are logical reasons for this–the Brewers were never going to sign a Lester-caliber pitcher–but the upshot is that there isn’t a glaring hole on the projected future roster the way there was in Chicago. But the Cubs also showed the value of augmenting through free agency when the time is right, and the Brewers can (and should) take some lessons from that.

The timing of the Brewers’ rebuild is a bit of a controversial topic, as some believe the Brewers should continue their tear down (and thus likely trade Braun) and some believe they could conceivably take a leap towards competition as early as this year. I lean more towards the latter, but I recognize that there is some uncertainty. For one, the Brewers will be relying on Arcia to take a step forward. For another, other players who like they could be contributors at positions not currently locked down (Lewis Brinson and Jacob Nottingham) are not yet even in the big leagues.

Therefore, the question is how big the club should go in free agency this year. I thought David Stearns took a smart approach last year by looking for low-risk flyers, and I imagine he will continue to do that this year. But the relevant question is whether he should look beyond that lower class of free agent.

I tend to think the answer should be no because the Brewers cannot afford to carry any mistakes. They no longer have any massive holes that need filling (center field, where Brinson and/or Brett Phillips should presumably be up at some point, and third base, where Jonathan Villar has moved with Scooter Gennett proving competent at second), so there is less urgency than there has been in the past.

Most importantly, though, the Brewers don’t know exactly where they will need to augment. Obviously, in a best case scenario, all their prospects will work out and Arcia, Brinson, and Domingo Santana will anchor a lineup while Ortiz and Hader top the rotation. However, the Brewers are smart enough to know that won’t happen, but they are not smart enough to know which ones won’t succeed. For that reason, I would advocate patience.

They will have the opportunity to fill their holes once they figure out where exactly those holes are. At this point, though, there isn’t enough information to determine where money should be allocated, so patience is the best route. They should still jump on opportunities to buy low (an example might be Jason Castro), but I would caution against any longer-term deals until they have a better sense of their next competitive roster. Unfortunately, they are forced to be stingier because of the market size, and this path gives the team the best chance to maximize the dollars they inevitably spend in the future.