Our Milwaukee Brewers sent eight representatives to the Fall League to suit up for Peoria (and later, a ninth player headed down to pitch for Mesa) so let’s take a moment to recap how well those players performed in the so-called “prospect finishing school.”

LHP Daniel Brown

Brown, a fastball-slider lefty who works in the low-to-mid-90s, enjoyed an excellent AFL. In nine appearances he covered 12.0 innings, allowing only eight hits, four walks, and a 3.00 Earned Run Average (ERA). Deserved Run Average thought his performance was nearly perfect; his DRA came in at 0.12 for a DRA- of 2.5! (DRA- measures DRA in league context, with 100 as average and the lower the number, the better).

RHP Bowdien Derby

The Javelinas used Derby as a starter in the AFL, and he toed the slab to begin seven games while logging 26.3 innings pitched. He did so with a modest 4.78 ERA, though DRA- (86) still assessed Derby as 14 percent better than the average pitcher on the circuit. Derby’s 18:9 strikeout:walk ratio wasn’t exactly inspiring, and we’ll see if the AFL performance that followed up a decent season as a swingman for Colorado Springs is enough to convince some team to pick him in this year’s Rule 5 Draft. Derby was left unprotected by the Brewers.

RHP Jon Olczak

Olczak turned in one of the most stellar campaigns of any reliever on the AFL circuit this year. He logged a 1.50 ERA across 12.0 innings, striking out 13 while allowing only eight hits and five walks. DRA- (45) valued his work as 55 percent better than his league-average cohorts. This comes after a terrific 73 DRA- in 56.3 innings for Double-A Biloxi during the regular season, and it wouldn’t come as a surprise to find out that the fastball/slider slinging Olczak (who sits 92-94 MPH) winds up generating plenty of Rule 5 interest in advance of next month’s draft.

RHP Miguel Sanchez

The 24 year old Sanchez put together a surprising pop-up season in 2018, advancing from Class A-Advanced all the way up to Triple-A before earning a shot at the Fall League. He continued to be effective in Arizona, posting a 3.60 ERA in 10.0 innings. He struck out eight while walking three, generating ground balls at a 65 percent rate. DRA- (74) saw his performance as well above average for the league.

RHP Aaron Wilkerson

After a truncated regular season split between Triple-A and the big leagues, the Brewers sent Wilkerson as a late addition to the AFL so that he could stretch back out in advance of pitching in winter ball in the Dominican Republic. Wilkerson joined the Mesa Solar Sox and appeared in three games, tossing four scoreless innings with three strikeouts and three walks.

C Mario Feliciano

Injuries limited Feliciano to just 46 games between the Arizona Rookie League and Class-A Advanced in 2018, so the Brewers assigned him to the Fall League to try and catch him up with some addition reps. It didn’t work out, though, as injuries unfortunately halted Feliciano’s progress once again. After only two games and six plate appearances (that included a hit and two walks), he was sidelined with discomfort in his throwing shoulder that led to arthroscopic surgery at the beginning of November. He should be ready to go again come next spring.

UTIL Weston Wilson

A jack-of-all-trades utility man, Wilson was highly impressive during the AFL campaign, batting .364 average /.462 on-base /.636 slugging percentage in 39 plate appearances for a True Average of .387. He clubbed a double, a triple, and two home runs, and even stole a pair of bases, too. A former 17th-round draft pick, more and more are coming around to the idea that the 24 year old Wilson has the ability to be a big leaguer after his terrific season between Class A-Advanced, Double-A, and the Arizona Fall League in 2018.

OF Trent Grisham

This former first-round pick, on the other hand, has plenty of people doubting that he’ll ever make it to The Show based on what he’s been showing lately (and really since being picked in 2015). Grisham’s passive approach has led to walks aplenty as a professional, but not much in the way of batting average of hard contact. Grisham hit .133/.304/.133 with 17 strikeouts in 57 AFL plate appearances, leading Mark Anderson of the BP Prospect Team to comment recently that “his comfort in the box and overall feel for hitting are seemingly non-existent at this point.”

2B Keston Hiura

Hiura is Milwaukee’s top prospect for good reason. Often described as a “hitting savant,” Hiura led the AFL in hits (31), RBI (33), and total bases (54). His five home runs were one off the league lead and his .934 OPS ranked sixth overall. Hiura’s overall slash was good enough for a .352 True Average, and he was so good so often that the BP Prospect Team seemed almost annoyed that they needed to keep writing about him. Hiura’s tremendous performance helped net not only the AFL Championship trophy, but earned him some well-deserved personal hardware, too.

#Brewers‘ hitting machine Keston Hiura is the 2018 @MLBazFallLeague MVP after hitting .323 with 5 homers and a league-leading 33 RBIs in 23 games. More from @wboor: https://t.co/Qbc6keDe54 pic.twitter.com/f47t6zO7fR

— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) November 17, 2018

Pitching at Security Service Field, the highest-altitude ballpark in the country, was a nightmare for just about any hurler that took the mound. Just ask Taylor Jungmann or Jorge Lopez (or maybe don’t). According to the latest three-year minor league park factor data available online (covering the 2014-16 seasons), no ballpark in the Pacific Coast League, or Triple-A baseball in general, was more conducive to run-scoring than Security Service Field. Though the park plays close to neutral in terms of home runs, base hits, including those for extra bases, have been more likely to fall in at Security Service Field than any other ballpark at the highest level of the minor leagues. The park factors in play in Colorado Springs make it difficult to evaluate pitchers, who don’t get the same break on their offerings at altitude, but also the hitters. The inflated batting statistics made journeymen like Nate Orf and Christian Bethancourt look like stars this season, and a previous study indicated that playing in an extreme hitters park can be negative for the offensive development of younger prospects.

Beyond the on-field issues, there were some logistical problems with the Colorado Springs location as well. Milwaukee obviously utilizes a good amount of their minor league depth and has constantly sent players back and forth from Triple-A to the big leagues over the past few years. Players that got the call to Milwaukee would have to drive more than an hour to get to Denver, and then from there they would have to catch a flight to either General Mitchell Internationa; (in Milwaukee) or O’Hare International (in Chicago). The led to a lot of long travel days for individuals like Adrian Houser, who vomited on the mound at Miller Park after enduring the journey. The altitude also had negative affects on player’s bodies. Manager Rick Sweet once noted that it could take up to a week for a player to re-acclimate to being so far above sea level, but that the team was rarely there long enough for an individual to complete the process of re-adjusting to the low oxygen environment before heading out on another road trip.

Going forward, however, Milwaukee won’t have to deal with having their highest affiliate in Colorado Springs any longer. The Elmore Group, owners of the former Sky Sox franchise and a few other minor league ballclubs, have done some shuffling of their assets. Their Double-A team in San Antonio is moving to a new park in Amarillo for 2019, so the group decided to pack up the Sky Sox and move them into the old facility in San Antonio. There the team is being re-branded as the new Missions, effectively elevating the franchise that existed as a Double-A affiliate for 50+ years to a Triple-A club. Though Milwaukee’s player development contract with the old Sky Sox expired after this season, the front office’s relationship with the Elmore Group helped the two sides broker a new two-year PDC that will keep the Brewers’ top affiliate in San Antonio for the next two years.

No longer will the minor leaguers have to deal with acclimating to the high altitude, or long drives to catch even longer flights when getting the call to The Show. And no longer will the players be trapped in one of the most challenging playing and evaluating environments in the country. Nelson W. Wolff Municipal Stadium figures be a significant departure from the high-scoring environment in Colorado Springs, as the park factors actually favor pitchers a bit more than they do hitters. Only Arkansas was less conducive to scoring among Texas League affiliates from 2014-16, and the park in San Antonio was also less apt to allow base hits than the average Texas League park. San Antonio has tended to be very suppressive to home runs, again coming in ahead of only Arkansas according to the park factors.

The Pacific Coast League still favors offense on the whole, but at least at when they are at home, Milwaukee’s scouts will be able to get a much more accurate read on their pitchers than they could in Colorado Springs. The minor league hitters may benefit from the change of scenery, too, at least from a developmental standpoint. The only real drawback to the move is that Wolff Stadium isn’t considered to be a “state of the art” facility, and the Elmore Group has been seeking a new stadium in San Antonio for nearly a decade now. The city has steadfastly refused to kick in any money for a stadium, however, as their eye is on a possible MLB club if the long-rumored expansion ever comes to fruition.

As part of the PDC, the Elmore’s have at least committed to investing in few million dollars worth of upgrades to the existing facility to get it up to the Triple-A standard. With a fluid ballpark situation, Milwaukee’s stay as an affiliate in San Antonio may not last longer than the two years of the contract that they just signed. But rest assured, the situation ought to be a monumental improvement over Colorado Springs.

The Brewers are sending the customary eight delegates to the Fall League this year, mixing well-known names with a few under-the-radar selections. Most fans are familiar with top prospect Keston Hiura, former first-round pick Trent Grisham, and young catcher Mario Feliciano. Bubba Derby, many will remember, was part of the trade that sent Khris Davis to Oakland. That quartet  headlines the group of prospects on their way to Arizona, where they’ll be joined by relievers Miguel Sanchez and John Olczak, both of whom have been covered on the site in recent weeks, and Daniel Brown. That leaves corner utility player Weston Wilson as the eighth man in.

Wilson enjoyed a nice campaign with the bat this year, producing a combined 270 batting average /.326 on-base percentage /.434 slugging percentage between two levels. The majority of that damage came in the Carolina League, where he played 105 games as a Mudcat and hit .274/.330/.446 for a healthy True Average (TAv) of .273 before a late-season bump to Biloxi. That continues something of a trend for Wilson, who split the 2017 season between Wisconsin and Carolina, hitting quite well at the former and scuffling some upon his promotion. The optimist’s view here is that Wilson makes adjustments as he develops, enduring some early struggles only to emerge a stronger, smarter ballplayer the following year. Someone less inclined to rose-colored glasses may point out that Wilson, a 16th round draftee out of Clemson in 2016, has always started the year a little old for his level, and simply performed in the low minors much as a decent college hitter should. Neither is a bad thing, really. But as a point of comparison, bear in mind that Wilson was drafted the same year as Ronnie Gideon, and signed for a similar bonus. Both hitters destroyed Rookie League ball in 2016, but their paths diverged after that: Wilson hit well for the Timber Rattlers, conquered the Mudcats, and has advanced to Double-A; Gideon struggled in Appleton for a full year, failed to do much for Carolina, and was released mid-season. Wilson may not be a highly-touted prospect, but he is separating himself from his peers in that particular cohort.

Something else to endear Wilson to the Milwaukee faithful: He’s capable of playing all over the field. Wilson started games at first, second, third base, and shortstop, as well as in left and right field this year, racking up most of his innings at first, third, and in left. The eye test reveals at least an average defender; Baseball Prospectus sees his defense as a potential plus. Wilson accumulated 7.3 Fielding Runs Above Average (FRAA) in the minors this year, a strong mark for any player. That’s a bit out of tune with his earlier defensive value (1.8 FRAA in 2017, -3.1 FRAA in 2016), but certainly enough to suggest a competent fielder. As positional labels begin to lose meaning across the league, Wilson’s comfort with moving around the diamond could become a true asset.

Monitoring Wilson’s development in Arizona and beyond should provide plenty of interest. His 2018 season was carried by a monster month of July, wherein he hit .436/.481/.681 across 27 games and 106 red-hot plate appearances. That came after a putrid June which saw him bat .176/.220/.253 in a similar amount of playing time. Ideally, he’d smooth over those kinds of extreme streaks in the future. He’ll also have to prove that he’s capable of handling advanced pitching at the Double-A and Triple-A levels. Happily, there’s some indication that he’s already begun that journey. Though he finished the regular season hitting .239/.286/.326 (.238 TAv) in a dozen games for the Shuckers, he caught fire in the postseason, going 10-for-27 with a pair of doubles for a .370/.452/.444 line in eight games. Fold that into his regular season work, and he hit .288/.342/.370 wearing a Shuckers uniform. Not shabby for a super-utility sort.

Prior to 2018, Wilson was best known as the prospect who proposed to his girlfriend after she threw out a ceremonial first pitch (incidentally, the video clip in that link suggests that Wilson could bring considerable value as a pitch framer, should he ever encounter the tools of ignorance). Another season like his last could change that in a hurry, especially if he shows well in Arizona next month. Should Wilson continue to develop as he has, he could be manning the diamond Hernán Pérez-style with fellow 2018 Shucker (and partner-in-rhyme) Keston Hiura for years of competitive Brewers baseball to come. Don’t be surprised if you start to see a #FreeWestonWilson campaign start to crop up next year or the year after, and be sure to check out Wilson this fall if you have a chance.

Yesterday at the lowest rung of the minor league ladder in the Dominican Summer League (DSL), however, the DSL Brewers no-hit the DSL Rangers (2) behind stellar work from starter Alexis Ramirez and reliever Jose Alberro. The 19 year old Ramirez tossed seven frames while allowing only two walks and striking out six before Alberro came on to close out the contest, tossing two clean innings with a couple of strikeouts. The Brewers won, 5-0, with most of the offense coming thanks to Oswel Leones, who hit a homer and had three RBI in the game.

That game was just one of a half-dozen no-hitters that the Brewers have recorded organization-wide since the start of this decade. Prior to yesterday’s game in the Dominican, the last no-no in the org was just last summer at Double-A Biloxi. The Shuckers had a doubleheader on August 14th, 2017, against the Tennessee Smokies, thanks to a postponed game the day before due to rain. MiLB doubleheaders feature two scheduled seven-inning games, so Hiram Burgos got the start in the seven-inning affair and started by tossing two clean innings with a couple of punchouts. Then came Forrest Snow, who was awarded the winning decision after pitching innings three through five, allowing one walk and four whiffs. Lefty hitting-convert Nick Ramirez threw the sixth while allowing a walk, and Jorge Lopez worked a clean seventh to finish up the no-no and record his fifth save of the year. The Shuckers won, 1-0, thanks to a first inning dinger by Troy Stokes.

Before the Biloxi no-hitter, you have to go all the way back to 2012 to find the previous one. The team that would eventually move to Biloxi, the Huntsville Stars, faced off against the Chattanooga Lookouts on August 4th. A familiar name got the start for Huntsville that night: Jimmy Nelson, worked the first four innings with four walks and four strikeouts, but no hits. Then came reliever Dan Merklinger, who was pitching in his final professional season. He walked four batters and allowed a run during his 2/3 of an inning before getting bailed out by La Crosse native R.J. Seidel. Seidel tossed an inning and a third while issuing two more free passes and was credited with the winning decision. Righty Darren Byrd worked two scoreless innings and then future big leaguer Brandon Kintzler came on for the save. Huntsville hurlers issued 11 walks in the contest but zero hits, and won 3-1 on a three-run homer by Brock Kjeldgaard in the third inning.

That wasn’t the only no-hitter the org registered in 2012. On May 4th, the Class-A Wisconsin Timber Rattlers defeated the Clinton LumberKings 5-0 while keeping their opponents out of the hit column. Chad Thompson, a 27th-round pick in 2011, got the start in that game and threw the first five innings with three walks and six punchouts. He would go on to miss all of 2013 with injury and was out of baseball after the 2014 season. His tandem partner, Mark Williams, came in to finish the context with four scoreless frames while walking one and striking out three. A former undrafted free agent, Williams hung around affiliated ball until 2015 but never made it past Double-A. 2010 24th-rounder Gregory Hopkins had the big hit, a three-run homer in the first inning, to power Wisconsin’s offense in the no-hit victory. He hung around the org until 2014 before playing a year in independent ball and hanging up the spikes.

We head back to the DSL to remember Juan Francisco’s seven-inning “gem” on August 15th, 2011. The DSL Brewers defeated the DSL Mariners by a score of 2-1, with Francisco tossing a complete game no-no. Francisco walked six batters while striking out only two during the highlight of his brief career, which lasted from 2010-12 and never got higher than the Dominican Summer League. Raul Mondesi, Jr. (the other one) and Jose Pena recorded the Brewers’ two runs batted in during the game, while a young Orlando Arcia took an 0-for-3.

The franchise’s first no-hitter of the decade took place on August 24th, 2010, in a Midwest League game between the Timber Rattlers and the Cedar Rapids Kernels. Jake Odorizzi got the start for Wisconsin and dominated, going eight innings with ten strikeouts versus only one walk. He was relieved by Adrian Rosario, who completed the no-no by throwing a scoreless ninth, walking one and fanning two. Both pitchers were dealt not long after. Odorizzi was sent to Kansas City in the famed Greinke deal and is currently enjoying a solid big league career. Rosario was a part of the 2011 K-Rod trade, and his career flamed out in the Mets’ organization in 2013. But both pitchers brought their best stuff that night, and thanks to RBI hits by D’Vontrey Richardson, Kentrail Davis, and Joey Paciorek, the T-Rats emerged victorious by a score of 3-0.

So there you have it, the six minor league no-hitters that the Milwaukee Brewers can claim since the start of 2010. Hopefully some of that good fortune will shine on the big league team soon, and help spawn the future broadcasting career of whatever backup catcher who may wind up calling pitches behind the plate for Milwaukee’s next MLB n0-no.

It was a disappointing tenure from a narrative standpoint, from the frightening injury to the anti-climactic end. Liriano had been a compelling prospect, offering an intriguing blend of power, speed, and defense, and ranking among the game’s best 100 prospects before the 2012 and 2013 seasons. He missed the entire 2013 season after Tommy John surgery, did not impress during a 2014 cup of coffee in San Diego, and found himself out of options and suffering from prospect fatigue. The Brewers saw his strong .290 True Average (TAv) at Triple-A El Paso the season before, and thought he could enjoy a breakout season with a patient-enough big league club. Liriano could have become the kind of low-key acquisition that plays through a rebuild and emerges a few years as a valuable piece on a contending roster.

Baseball has a way of creating its own storylines, though: The Brewers are suddenly fighting for a division title with an overstuffed outfield, and Liriano is back in the organization and trying to rewrite history. Prior to his free agent signing, he had authored a respectable .268/.343/.523 line for the Salt Lake Bees, the Triple-A affiliate of the Los Angeles Angels. No longer a prospect, and robbed of valuable developmental time by his injury history, Liriano is more under-the-radar now than he has been for most of his playing career. Below the surface, his changing numbers and approach reveal a player who is struggling to find his path forward.

Scouting reports on Liriano have long made note of his athleticism and raw power. But throughout much of his career, his game power played more as an average tool. Throughout his time in the Padres organization, Liriano never tallied more than 14 home runs in a season (2014, 2015), and his Isolated Slugging Percentage (ISO) only ever ran up over .200 during an insane 71-plate-appearance stretch in AAA in 2014, wherein he hit .452/.521/.661 and was promptly called up to San Diego for his major league debut (whereupon his ISO plummeted to .046). For reference, the National League average ISO was .134 that season.

Since missing out on the 2016 season, though, Liriano has refashioned his swing to generate more loft, perhaps inspired by the late-career successes of Josh Donaldson, Daniel Murphy, and others. Here he is in 2015, lining a thigh-high middle-inside pitch to his pull side for a double:

And here he is earlier this season, turning on a waist-high pitch for a long home run:

The differences aren’t hard to spot. In 2015, Liriano crouched at the plate and held his hands up behind his ears. As the pitcher delivers, he times his swing with a small step, really more of a tap. He sees that the ball is down in the zone, so he deepens his crouch, reaches down, and uses a level swing to rip a shot down the third-base line.

In 2018, the stance is a little more open, and Liriano has ditched the crouch for a straighter pose. His hands are noticeably lower, and he’s changed to a more exaggerated leg kick. He plants his front foot firmly in the dirt, then turns on the pitch with everything he’s got, showcasing a swing clearly designed with loft in mind.

The resulting power gains are significant. Liriano whacked a career-high 17 home runs in 500 plate appearances last season, and (entering this week) was already up to 19 home runs in 316 plate appearances in 2018. His ISO is almost equal to his batting average, at .254, and he’s hitting the ball in the air at a 43.8 percent clip, up considerably from the mid-30s figures he posted earlier in his career. Part of this is attributable to his offensive environment, but it’s clear that this surge is fueled by more than thin air.

For one thing, there has been a clear and inevitable tradeoff in Liriano’s profile: contact. And unfortunately for Liriano, he didn’t have much of that to trade in the first place. Between 2012 and 2015, Liriano’s minor league strikeout rates hovered around 24 percent, high enough to be concerning, but low enough to be chalked up to youth and inexperience. When he got back onto the field with the White Sox organization in 2017, that number spiked to 26.6 percent. This year, it’s even higher: 31.2 percent at Salt Lake, and 36.2 percent in a limited sample with the Sky Sox. He’s taking his walks (9.5 percent walk rate), but not quite enough of them to compensate for all the whiffs. And with the new feast-or-famine approach, Liriano has connected for only eight doubles on the season.

There’s evidence that other aspects of his game are eroding, too. This year, Liriano has stolen only seven bases, and been caught eight times. Never the best at getting jumps, he used to be able to rely on sheer speed to generate value on the basepaths. But he’s been worth -2.6 baserunning runs on the year, which is hardly the contribution one would want from a fast player with a fringy hit tool.

Liriano’s journey has been rockier than most, and he’s seen his perceived ceiling fall from above-average regular to useful fourth outfielder along the way. He still possesses good athleticism and strong defense, but is no longer a great option to man center field. The newfound power would play in a corner, but Liriano was only able to get there by forsaking a hit tool that never projected to above-average in the first place. The Brewers already possess Keon Broxton in the dingers-and-defense category, and Keon offers a lot more value with the glove and on the bases. If Liriano converts some of the fly balls into line drives and is able to shorten his swing and make more contact, he could carve out a nice role on a major league bench. Of course, that particular profile is largely what Tyrone Taylor has to offer, and Taylor is three years younger. This leaves Liriano in a somewhat precarious position: He’s running out of time to make his mark before he’s slapped with the “org filler” label, and his new contact profile is extreme even in the dawning three-true-outcomes era. Liriano has adjusted once before; ironically, he might have a better chance of reaching the majors again if he’s able to adjust back.

Troy Stokes Jr. was riding a different wave. A former fourth-round pick, he had never received much prospect attention, but a strong 2017 campaign split between Carolina and Double-A Biloxi started to change that. Really, Stokes was just doing what he always did by showing good speed, decent pop, and a patient eye. Now, he was doing it at AA, and the pop was showing up in games. By year’s end, he was one of just ten minor league players to finish with at least 20 home runs (Stokes hit 20 on the nose) and 20 steals (he swiped 30). People started to stick him on their prospect lists.

Given their different trajectories heading in, it’s funny that Ray and Stokes have arrived at… exactly the same place. Through last Friday (July 6), Ray was batting .244/.342/.453 in 81 games for Biloxi, for an On Base Percentage plus Slugging Percentage (OPS) of .796, an isolated slugging percentage (ISO) of .209, and a True Average (TAv) of .282. Ray had tallied 101 strikeouts, against 44 unintentional walks. Among his 78 hits were 21 doubles, 5 triples, and 12 home runs. He’d stolen 21 bases in 25 attempts.

Stokes, meanwhile, was batting .250/.359/.442 in 83 games for the Shuckers, for an OPS of .800, an ISO of .192, and a TAv of .302. He had tallied 101 strikeouts, against 43 unintentional walks. Among his 77 hits were 18 doubles, four triples, and 11 home runs. He’d stolen 13 bases in 14 attempts.

The carbon-copy batting line makes for a fun quirk, and also serves as a useful checkpoint for prospect evaluation. Ray’s performance feels more personally and emotionally significant after the rocky start to his Brewers career. He’s showing a glimpse of the potential the Brewers saw when they signed him for a franchise-record bonus of $4.125 million. Because of his draft pedigree, it’s tempting to think that he’s only now starting to scratch the surface. He has made adjustments this year; that can portend good things. He’s extremely athletic, with loud tools and a positive attitude; these, too, are good things to have on your side.

Stokes’s performance is just as good as Ray’s 2018 thus far. But Stokes is essentially doing the same thing he did at this level last year, only over a larger sample. He had some helium coming into the season, but instead of continuing to rise, he’s riding along at the same (high) level. He hasn’t been underwhelming by any stretch, but he hasn’t been overwhelming either, and his performance doesn’t have the same redemptive narrative quality that Ray’s does.

So what to make of the pair going forward? Ray has more of everything, basically. More speed. More raw power. More of a chance to play up the middle. Certainly more name recognition.

Ray has more variance, too, and higher expectations, which could be his blessing or his curse. It’s easy look at the top prospect and see the makings of a five-tool outfielder if he can tighten up his approach and hit for a bit more average. It’s also easy to see his swing-and-miss issues spelling trouble against better and better breaking balls.

Stokes is younger, which adds a wrinkle to his evaluation. At present, he’s pull-happy, and his high-loft swing leaves him susceptible to lazy pop flies. He’s striking out more this year than he has before. That may be something he can grow out of, or it may be a warning sign that his hit tool will forever hover in the 40-45 scouting grade range. He’s a competent enough outfielder, but fits best in left, so his path to regular playing time will ride more on his bat than will Ray’s.

We can continue to debate the various merits and red flags of each player, or we could do the more sensible thing and simply sit back and enjoy the ride. Right now, Ray and Stokes are similar prospects doing similar things, having taken very different routes to get there. Who knows where their paths will lead; every prospect develops differently and it’s usually very difficult to identify future major league stars. Either one could become a star or a bust or a quality role-player. They could even continue their ascent locked in step, giving Milwaukee a pair of Mike Cameron-esque options to shuffle into what will continue to be a very crowded outfield mix. Three cheers for organizational depth.

Stepping outside of the distributive justice of this question, there are numerous structural elements that currently give MLB clubs incentive to pay minor league players at a low rate. The first structural impediment is the MLB Draft slot system, which now forces MLB clubs to pay quite steep penalties for spending more than their allotted slot money on a given amateur draft. For example, Table One below approximates the historical value of losing a mid-round first pick versus spending approximately $600,000 to land a couple of over-slot signings that might have slipped beyond Round Ten. Basically, given the current MLB slot system rules, an MLB team would have to find a way to sign two Second-Round ceiling guys in the mid rounds in order to justify losing a first round pick; in reality, the bonuses an MLB team would be required to pay potential Second-Round ceilings that fell to the middle of the draft would likely be higher than the 10 percent overage penalty. This keeps players like Keston Hiura, who would be worth at least $20 million contracts on the open market, from earning that amount early in their respective careers.

Table One: Approximate Historical MLB Draft Surplus Value

Additionally, if the bulk of professional careers end in the low levels of a system, MLB teams are most constrained by Minor League Baseball rules to deflate pay at the lowest levels (a Minor League player cannot earn more than $1,100 per month during their first contract year. According to Minor League Baseball, salaries are open to negotiation after that point). The ideal of a vertically aligned player development system essentially serves as a giant check on a player’s professional earning potential, and it may even exaggerate odds of a player reaching the MLB. After all, if one views the idea that a player can only reasonably reach the MLB out of Double-A or Triple-A affiliates, then one would be hard-pressed to expect most players to reach the MLB with fewer than four years of seasoning.

What is stunning about the structures of the Amateur Draft and Affiliated Minor League baseball system is their rigidity where no rigidity is required. Throughout a sizable portion of professional baseball history, the minor leagues were more of a frontier for MLB baseball than a proving ground, as competitive leagues across the USA often operated with players that would widely be viewed as MLB-equivalent. The Pacific Coast League of the early Twentieth Century is probably the most famous example of this level of talent (especially because those years occurred prior to MLB’s westward expansion), but it is surely not the lone example. Now, in an environment where many fans and analysts are obsessed with finding “the next market inefficiency,” the structure of Affiliated Minor League baseball itself may be worth realignment.

The beauty of Minor League structure is that any individual team could operate according to their own structural preference at any point in time. According to Minor League Baseball, “Major League organizations can promote players through the affiliated leagues, or directly to the Majors, as they wish.” What is fascinating about this idea is that an MLB club could simply keep their own players in complex ball for years, and then promote them to the MLB, or they could simply promote everyone to the MLB after signing out of the Amateur Draft (or any combination in-between). Additionally, contractual obligations after the first year are wide open for MLB clubs, giving them fantastic flexibility to sign minor league contracts to any deals they like.

Regarding contracts, then, a speculative opportunity for MLB teams, especially a relatively small market franchise like the Brewers, rests in the second, third, fourth, etc., years of minor league play. After an MLB team basically is forced to pay a minor leaguer approximately $7,000 during their first year of work, the club could settle any arrangement they like with a player. For example, consider a long-term development play like Tristen Lutz, or Carlos Herrera; the Brewers could conceivably have signed both players to four-year, $400,000 minor league development deals beginning with 2018. Keston Hiura could have been signed out of the draft with a three-year, minor league development deal worth $1,000,000, and so on and so forth. Where this logic leads is to a mechanism through which a club like the Brewers could exploit amateur draft slot rules by offering a player draft day bonuses that do not trigger the overage rules by using an understanding that the player would receive a well-priced development deal in their second year.

In terms of league structure, one wonders why an MLB team would not use their complex facilities to organize several teams’ worth of players to train within a closed organizational structure. On this systemic development, a team like the Brewers could sign anywhere between 200-to-300 players of varying talent levels, and operate eight-to-ten teams at the Complex Level. These teams could face one another, and essentially produce a league in which Milwaukee Brewers organizational strategies and development occurred within a relatively controlled circuit. This could also streamline coaching, training, and managerial functions, in order to ensure that the very best coaching talent receives the greatest reach in terms of impact; if a club can identify their best coaches and trainers, why shouldn’t they have leadership roles that impact 200-to-300 players instead of 20-to-30?

Additionally, is worth questioning whether the discrepancies between league environments actually provide developmental challenges to ascending prospects in a manner that actually prepares them for the MLB-levels of professional baseball; this question should not simply be raised given the difficult pitching environment for Triple-A Colorado Springs, which has claimed several Brewers pitching prospects from starting pitching roles thus far. This question could be raised about early-spring weather conditions in the Midwest League, offensive-suppressing environments in some advanced leagues, etc. This question can also be raised in terms of high-floor roles, as intriguing organizational depth prospect Thomas Jankins is proving after jumping from Class-A Midwest to Double-A Southern League, or Cardinals pitcher Jordan Hicks is proving after jumping from Advanced-A to MLB.

Table Two: Conventional Minor League Structure and One Speculative Alternative

But mostly, if the Brewers were to suddenly restructure their complex ball to support its own league of intraorganizational ball, and the club poured between $25 to $50 million to support those efforts, the organization could potentially gain an advantage in reserving the rights of more minor league players through larger development contracts while also placing the players into an environment better suited to cushion the variance inherent in player development. Additionally, the Brewers could gain an advantage by organizing a new form of competitive player development by which players of varying talent levels are scouted, coached, taught, and cared for (in terms of diet, health care, etc.) within one locale. There could even be an advantage in playing related affiliates against one another, in order to view organizational strategies in competition with one another.

Yet this strategy of competitive player development need not occur solely at the complex level. The Brewers ought to scrutinize the best combination of affiliated clubs for the purposes of player development, which may not be a vertically aligned staircase (from Class-A to Advanced-A to Double-A and Triple-A). If the Carolina League is indeed a solid development environment, the Brewers should buy another Carolina League franchise, and maintain a second Advanced-A team in that locale. If the team continues to hope that a replacement-by-design, shuttle squad, high-floor, MLB depth role roster can be constructed (as the current 40-man roster and Advanced Minors are constructed), the team could benefit from having two Double-A clubs.

This is a rather speculative discussion, but it is worth emphasizing that if professional player development is non-linear, non-linear organizational structures could benefit the process. There is no reason to maintain the fiction of a progressing development staircase to the MLB when front office has the resources to make alternative modes of development work.

Within the draft, the first 10 rounds are considered to be the most important for the selecting teams. Each of the 300+ picks inside those rounds comes with a bonus slot value attached, and the slot values add up for each team to create their bonus pool for signing players. It is imperative for teams that the players they select in the first 10 rounds sign a professional contract, otherwise the team not only loses out on that drafted player, but also has to subtract the slot value of that pick from their bonus pool. In 2017, only three players selected in the top 10 rounds failed to sign with the team that drafted them. One of those young men was Drew Rasmussen, a right-handed pitcher from Oregon State selected by the Tampa Bay Rays at #31 overall.

Rasmussen arrived at Oregon State as a freshman back in 2015 and immediately hit the ground running in his college career. During his first year on campus he tossed 106.0 frames in 19 appearances (14 starts) for the Beavers, working to a 2.80 ERA. He pitched the first perfect game in OSU history against Washington State, was a freshman All-American and made the Pac-12 First Team. He began his sophomore season in the Beavers’ rotation and during his first six starts he compiled a 3.41 ERA in 37.0 innings, but with an improved 42:10 K/BB ratio and a sub-1.00 WHIP. Then disaster struck in March, and the right-hander heard a pop in his elbow. He needed Tommy John surgery.

The righty was able to work his way back from the procedure relatively quickly and returned to the mound after only about 13 months post-op. Oregon State was one of the top collegiate teams in the nation during the 2017 season and Rasmussen was indeed able to contribute, first in a bullpen role while rebuilding his strength and stamina before returning to the rotation. All together he wound up appearing in eight games, starting four of them, and logging 27.0 innings. He yielded only a 1.00 ERA and stuck out 26 batters against just five walks, once again posting a sub-1.00 WHIP while displaying remarkable control so soon after his surgery. Rasmussen recorded two saves and three winning decisions while helping OSU earn the #1 seed in the College World Series.

Post-surgery, Rasmussen was boasting a plus fastball in the 92-96 MPH range, touching 98 and with good extension, according to MLB Pipeline. He was getting swings and misses with his heater while also flashing a solid changeup and slider. He has a starter’s build at 6’2″ and 225 lbs and an easy delivery with a pretty standard high three-quarters release point, which helped lead to pretty effective control around the strike zone. Even with his previous surgery, the profile was strong enough for the Rays to use their Competitive Balance Round A pick on Rasmussen, which came with a $2,134,900 slot bonus value.

After the draft, however, some concerns arose over discrepancies between his pre- and post-draft physicals. Tampa Bay’s main concern was his surgically repaired elbow. The two sides were unable to come to an agreement, and Rasmussen’s request to become an MLB free agent was denied due to his two remaining years of college eligibility. So he prepared to return to Oregon State for what would be his redshirt junior season. But the elbow issues that the Rays deemed worrisome enough to let the righty walk proved to be significant; he required a second Tommy John procedure in August of 2017.

Not surprisingly, Rasmussen wound up missing the entire 2018 campaign for OSU while recovering and rehabbing from another significant surgery. Even though he didn’t take the mound at all, his scouting report when healthy and previous work for Oregon State had outlets like Baseball America (#109) and MLB Pipeline (#200) convinced that the former first-round pick was still one of the top draft prospects out there. He wound up falling to day two, and with their 6th round pick in the 2018 MLB Draft, the Milwaukee Brewers selected Drew Rasmussen at #185 overall.

Although it’s not official yet, the belief is that Rasmussen will sign with Milwaukee this summer (for potentially below the pick #185 slot value of $251,700) rather than return to school and try the draft again next season, when he’ll be a 23 year old senior sign without any negotiating leverage. Rasmussen told  Brad Ford at Brew Crew Ball that he hasn’t advanced to the point in his rehab where he is even playing catch yet, and that he was waiting to take that next step until he knew what organization he would be a part of. Now the Brewers and their award-winning medical staff will be able to guide him through a recovery and throwing program to get him back to full strength.

Most scouts believe that Rasmussen’s medical history will force him into relief as a professional, although Drew himself says that the Brewers have not yet given him any indication either way as to whether he’ll be in a bullpen role or a starter once he’s fully healthy. He has had plenty of experience, and success, in both spots. For what it’s worth, he says he prefers the structure of being a rotational pitcher although the variability of coming out of the bullpen can be exciting.

The Brewers may have landed themselves one of the most compelling prospects in the draft, a first-round talent with the stuff to be a successful starter who plummeted down draft boards and missed out on a couple million dollars due to injury. The club has been extremely cautious in bringing back their young arms from such dramatic afflictions and we shouldn’t expect to see Rasmussen make his professional debut until sometime in 2019. But the successful rehabs of Taylor Williams and Adrian Houser, both of whom have contributed at the MLB level this season after undergoing Tommy John surgery within the past two years, should help inspire some confidence that Milwaukee’s medical staff can help Drew Rasmussen get back to 100 percent. Once he’s healthy, he’ll be one prospect whose development I’ll certainly be watching closely.

That the rotational group is compiled entirely of under-the-radar acquisitions and graduated prospects speaks to the development of what appears an organizational philosophy under the new front office regime. David Stearns didn’t make a splash on the pitching market this past offseason despite months of swirling rumors to the contrary, with the most notable acquisition coming in the form of Jhoulys Chacin on a two-year deal. Chase Anderson arrived to the Brewers as a major leaguer but not a finished product, and has taken some steps forward since arriving to the org and working with pitching coach Derek Johnson. Team ERA leader Junior Guerra was famously a waiver claim who has improved dramatically since coming to Milwaukee, and injured Wade Miley signed as a minor league free agent this past offseason and worked with the org to change his mechanics and improve results. Brent Suter, Zach Davies, and Brandon Woodruff each made their major league debuts with Milwaukee over the past few seasons, and last week Freddy Peralta joined them with a dazzling 13 punchout debut to set a club record for most strikeouts by a rookie pitcher.

The Doug Melvin-era Brewers had no trouble developing MLB-caliber bats, but the knock against his clubs was typically that there wasn’t enough good pitching. These David Stearns Brewers, on the other hand, look to have developed a pitching factory of sorts, and it doesn’t figure to slow down anytime soon. We’ll very likely see the big league debut of Corbin Burnes at some point this season, and though he’s currently on the shelf Luis Ortiz was off to a strong start in Double-A Biloxi. But one pitcher who doesn’t get discussed as often, and probably should be talked about more, is Biloxi starter Zack Brown.

Brown, 23, was selected by the Brewers back in the fifth round of the 2016 MLB Draft out of the University of Kentucky and signed for a slot-value bonus of just over $400,000. He began his professional career in rookie-level Helena, but after only three starts he was promoted to Class-A Wisconsin to finish out the season. He made nine appearances and was tabbed to start in four of them, producing a 3.00 ERA across 33.0 innings pitched. A 29:5 K/BB ratio and 1.030 WHIP helped him to a solid 87 DRA-, but the Brewers still saw fit to start Brown back with the Timber Rattlers to begin the 2017 campaign. He found work in 18 more contests for Wisconsin (getting the start in 13 of them) and after working to a 3.39 ERA and 91 DRA- across 85.0 innings, the org decided it was time to promote him to Class-A Advanced Carolina to finish out the year. He pitched extremely well in four starts to close the 2017 season, tossing 25.0 innings for the Mudcats with a 2.16 ERA, 23 strikeouts, and just two free passes. His DRA- with during his brief stint with Carolina checked in at a cool 46, or a level of production rated as 54 percent better than the league average.

Similar to the aggressive assignment given to Thomas Jankins, the Brewers jumped Brown right to the Double-A Biloxi starting rotation to begin 2018. So far, so good: across eight starts the righty has logged 46.7 innings while tallying a 2.89 ERA and 47:12 K/BB ratio. The eight home runs he’s allowed are a bit of a concern, but he’s only given up 38 hits in total and is currently boasting a 1.07 WHIP and a solid .253 TAv against. He’s also kept the ball on the ground at a rate of 62 percent this season, which is an interesting development after posting sub-50 percent grounder rates in his first two seasons as a pro. Deserved Run Average agrees with his success against the Southern League, giving him a DRA- of 77 so far on the season.

Fastball the star of this full at-bat sequence from Biloxi’s Zack Brown #Brewers https://t.co/VjWl1ZnWyp

— Jim Goulart (@Mass_Haas) May 10, 2018

Zack Brown isn’t a big guy, standing at 6’1″ with a listed weight of 180 lbs. He doesn’t fit the “ideal” big-bodied mold of an innings-eater, but size isn’t something that the Stearns regime is too concerned about when evaluating a pitcher. He’s considered to have a high-effort delivery, and is one of the seemingly rare hurlers these days who actually pitches from a windup and takes the ball back over his head before making his stride and delivering the ball to the plate. That helps Brown add some deception and hide the ball a bit longer before the batter can see it. He works with a fastball that has received plus grades, sitting in the 92-95 MPH range and with the ability to both sink it and elevate it. After working in a variety of roles in college, Brown has settled in as a starter with the Brewers and MLB Pipeline credits him with an improved ability to maintain his velocity deep into starts.

Still laughing at this swing from Touki Toussaint on an unfair Zack Brown curve last night. #Shuckers pic.twitter.com/XNX53FG9XK

— Brewers Farm (@BrewersFarm) April 13, 2018

As far as secondaries go, Brown’s curveball is his best pitch. It’s a sharp breaking offering that receives plus grades and is a pitch that Pipeline scouts feel Brown should lean on even more heavily. He also throws a changeup that’s not quite as refined as the other two weapons in his arsenal, but has potential to be a useful pitch that “that contrasts nicely against his heater.” Brown is generally around the strike zone and doesn’t walk a ton of hitters as evidenced by his career rate of 2.7 BB/9, but as with many young pitchers he could use some further improvement of his command within the strike zone.

Brown draws praise for his outstanding athleticism, and the Brewers believe that will help him stick in a starting role in spite of the effort in his delivery. Farm Director Tom Flanagan has mentioned Brown on a few different occasions when he’s been in the booth during broadcasts of the big league team’s games this year, praising the prospect’s competitive nature on the mound and the development that he’s shown this season. With the delivery concerns and further improvement of his third pitch needed, there are still questions about whether Brown will be able to remain a starter with possibly mid-to-back of the rotation upside, or if his plus fastball/curveball combination will help him become a potentially dominant reliever. Either way Zack Brown will certainly be an organizational pitcher to keep an eye on moving forward, along with what seems like a now endless list of tantalizing arms coming up through the system.

I first profiled Jankins for BP Milwaukee last summer, towards the end of his breakout campaign in Appleton with the Timber Rattlers. In his first full season as a professional, the now soon-to-be 23 year old compiled a 3.62 ERA and a sterling 55 DRA- across 141.2 innings, accompanied by a 121:32 K/BB ratio and 55 percent ground ball rate. The organization was so taken with his performance that the decision was made to skip Jankins over the Carolina League entirely and assign him straight to the starting rotation in Double-A Biloxi to start the 2018 season. So far, Jankins hasn’t appeared overwhelmed by the significant jump in competition; it’s been quite the opposite, in fact. After his most recent start on Wednesday, a performance of 6.3 shutout innings in a win against the Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp, Jankins owns a 2.03 ERA through an even 31.0 innings with 26 punchouts against just seven free passes. Pitching wins don’t mean much, especially at the minor league level, but according to Shuckers’ broadcaster Garrett Greene, Jankins is the first hurler in team history to record a victory in his each of his first five starts.

I recently had the opportunity to catch up with Thomas Jankins about his career so far and what the future may hold:

Kyle Lesniewski: You were chosen by Milwaukee in the 13th round out of Quinnipiac University in 2016. Can you describe what that process was like?

Thomas Jankins: Getting drafted in 2016 was a dream come true for me. It was something that I had set as a legitimate goal for myself when I entered college and to achieve it was a special feeling. I was very fortunate to have such great teammates and coaches around me during my time at Quinnipiac, and I was able to develop my skills to a point where I felt like I was ready to compete at the next level. The Brewers were certainly among the teams that were interested at the time, so when they called in the 13th round it wasn’t a huge surprise. If I could go back and redo the process I might have changed my expectations for the draft so that I could have enjoyed the experience a little more. I honestly thought I was going to get picked earlier, but I think it was a humbling and motivating experience for me to go through. In the end, hearing your name called in any round means that you are going to get an opportunity and that’s all you can ever ask for. The only thing that went into my decision to forgo my senior year was that I promised my parents that I would eventually finish my degree. Thankfully, with the help of the Brewers, I have been able to finish my Bachelor’s degree in my first two off seasons which I’m extremely proud of.

KL: How has the transition to pro ball gone? What’s life like for a minor leaguer drafted in the later rounds?

TJ: The transition has certainly been one that has been filled with constant adjustments. From being a person that hadn’t left New England much in my life to living and playing in new places like Montana, Wisconsin, Arizona and Mississippi there were times early on where it felt a little overwhelming. I’m very lucky to have a great support system in family and friends who have helped me along the way and I’ve also learned to embrace the constant changes that most minor leaguers face. As far as being a later round draft pick, I try not to let that define me as a player. The Brewers are a tremendous organization in the amount of resources they dedicate to us as players, and I try to take advantage of that as much as I can. They also have shown that they are less concerned with what round you were picked in once you step foot between the lines, which is encouraging to us players because we understand it’s up to us to perform and advance our own careers.

KL: You’re from a cold weather climate and your school has produced only one major leaguer. Because of that, some scouting outlets saw you as sort of a “raw” prospect with untapped upside that could be unlocked in the pro ranks. What adjustments/improvements has the organization encouraged you to make since coming to Milwaukee?

TJ: I’m not sure “raw” would be the best way I would describe myself at the time but there were certainly a number of improvements in my game that had to be made. Consistency was a major theme in my first season as I had to learn what it meant to prepare at the professional level. Cleaning up my delivery, especially out of the stretch was a step I took in that first year to have more consistent stuff every time I took the mound. I think my second season was about me establishing my identity as a pitcher, there were certainly some bumps and bruises along the way but there were also many valuable lessons learned. I believe moving forward, I have a much better understanding of the player I have to become to be successful at the major league level.

KL: You were successful last season in Appleton, and the Brewers took the unconventional step of skipping you over Carolina and assigned you straight to Double-A in Biloxi. How did that conversation go, were you surprised by the assignment? Does it feel like a vote of confidence from the organization?

TJ: I came into spring training this year trying not to have any expectation of where I would be playing this season. In the past, I have let things like team assignments that are outside of my control have too much of an effect on my performance and this year I was trying to simplify my approach. I just knew that I was going to compete and train as hard as I could to give myself the best opportunity to make a team. When I learned I was assigned to Biloxi, I wouldn’t say I was surprised because I expect a lot out of myself but I knew that it was up to me to show that it wasn’t a mistake. The organization showed that they believed in me to handle it and I believed I could as well, it was just about using my preparation and knowledge from previous seasons as tools to help me make the jump.

KL: Can you provide a self scouting report? How do you like to attack hitters?

TJ: I would describe myself as pretty typical sinker ball pitcher. My velocity is not overwhelming so I have to rely on movement and control to manipulate hitters into swinging at the pitches I want them too. I think I am fairly aggressive in the way I attack hitters which often leads to early count contact, I’m a big believer in the 3 pitches or less mindset on the mound. My goal every game is to try and get into the 7th inning. I try to induce as many ground balls as I can using my sinker, and use my changeup and slider as more swing and miss type pitches. When my slider is on, I think it is my best pitch and hopefully the consistency with it continues to improve. Currently, I am working on using a cutter and hopefully that can become a major weapon for me down the road.

KL: What are your goals for this season and for your career? What strengths will carry Thomas Jankins to the major leagues?

TJ: My goals for the season are to develop a consistent 4th pitch that I can use while still making improvements on my other 3 offerings. Every year I also strive to lead the team in innings. I hope to continue to mature in how I handle both success and failure as I think I have a better understanding of the pacing of a full season after going through my first one last year. My goal for my career is to be a starting pitcher at the major league level, I certainly have a long way to go in my development but I believe I have what it takes to get there someday. I think one of my biggest strengths is self-awareness, I have a good grasp on the things that make me successful on the mound and also understand the many things I need to improve on. If I can continue to polish up the things I struggle with while maintaining who I am, I think that’s a pretty good recipe for success.