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	<title>Milwaukee &#187; Brewers minor leagues</title>
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		<title>The Unexpected Clayton Andrews</title>
		<link>http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/12/11/the-unexpected-clayton-andrews/</link>
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		<pubDate>Tue, 11 Dec 2018 17:59:45 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Noah Nofz]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[2018 Brewers minor leagues]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[2018 Brewers prospects]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Brewers minor leagues]]></category>
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		<description><![CDATA[Last June, in the seventeenth round of the MLB Amateur Draft, the Brewers selected a 5’6”, 160 pound speedster named Clayton Andrews. Andrews has a plus defensive profile in the outfield, and he had just hit .302 while striking out only six times for Long Beach State. He hadn&#8217;t flashed much power at the plate, [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Last June, in the seventeenth round of the MLB Amateur Draft, the Brewers selected a 5’6”, 160 pound speedster named Clayton Andrews. Andrews has a plus defensive profile in the outfield, and he had just hit .302 while striking out only six times for Long Beach State. He hadn&#8217;t flashed much power at the plate, failing to ever clear the fence and hitting just six doubles and five triples in 215 at bats. But Andrews made up for that by drawing 25 walks. Add it all up, and you can see a modest big league future as a contact-oriented slash-and-dash fourth outfielder, maybe a little more if he comes into some power. Not a bad set of skills for a seventeenth-rounder. One more thing about Andrews, though: Milwaukee drafted him as a pitcher.</p>
<p>On the mound, the first thing that stands out about Andrews is his stature; he’s the size of Jose Altuve, a full foot shorter than Jimmy Nelson. Look beyond that, though, and Andrews has some some interesting tools. To start with, he’s left-handed. That puts him at an automatic advantage, personnel-wise, and lowers the ceiling Andrews would have to hit in order to have a major league career. At worst, he’ll need to develop into a competent platoon lefty, facing just one or two batters at a time.</p>
<p>The soon-to-be 22-year-old also has a few building blocks that could help him hit or exceed that role. Because Andrews is so short, he can’t reliably generate the steep, downward plane with his fastball that helps so many taller pitchers miss bats and coax ground balls. Andrews operates in the upper-80s with his heater, topping out around 90 mph. It’s not a very exciting pitch, but shows some signs of life and can be used high in the zone to tie hitters up. Happily, Andrews boas  ts a pair of advanced secondary pitches in a mid-70s changeup and a slower, sweeping curveball. The change looks a little better right now, with late fade and plenty of separation from the fastball. But both pitches flash plus, and could help the young hurler reduce his reliance on his fastball. Andrews’ command is solid for a pitcher his age, and should be at least big league average by the time he climbs his way to the top of the organizational ladder.</p>
<p>The combination of solid stuff and decent command was enough to help Andrews excel in his professional debut last summer. He tossed 33 professional innings between Helena (2.13 DRA) and Wisconsin (1.95 DRA), and managed 54 strikeouts against only 7 walks. The Brewers deployed Andrews out of the bullpen, but that may have been more about innings management than anything; Andrews started in college, and had already tossed 99.7 innings (with 118 strikeouts and a 1.99 ERA) for Long Beach State, easily a career high, by the time he came off the draft board.</p>
<p>Andrews&#8217;s alma mater might also provide insight into the southpaw&#8217;s profile. Long Beach State has a history of embracing players who have faced long-term questions over their futures in baseball. They recruited former Angels star Jered Weaver when most scouts thought he was better suited to basketball. And when Evan Longoria was told he was too scrawny to play Division I baseball out of high school, it was Long Beach State who swooped after the star third baseman spent a year proving otherwise at community college. </p>
<p>The Brewers, too, have flirted with unconventional players in the past. Milwaukee even employed a 5’6” lefty as recently as 2011, when Danny Herrera made two ill-fated Brewers appearances before being released and catching on with the Mets. As Milwaukee continues to challenge accepted pitching roles, there could well be a place for Andrews on a future big league roster. Even if he falters on the mound, he can turn back to hitting. Better still, he could carve out a fascinating career as a late-inning defensive outfield sub who trots to the mound whenever a left-handed batter steps to the plate. Keep an eye on him in the seasons to come.</p>
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		<title>Meet Aaron Ashby</title>
		<link>http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/11/16/meet-aaron-ashby/</link>
		<comments>http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/11/16/meet-aaron-ashby/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 16 Nov 2018 13:18:23 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Kyle Lesniewski]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[2018 Brewers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Aaron Ashby]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Brewers minor leagues]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Brewers prospects]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Brewers top prospects]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=12978</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The Milwaukee Brewers have avoided taking pitchers at the top of the draft under the David Stearns regime. In 2016, the club waited until the 3rd round before drafting hurler Braden Webb. In 2017, they used their round one and Competitive Balance Round A picks on position players prior to selecting Caden Lemons in the [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The Milwaukee Brewers have avoided taking pitchers at the top of the draft under the David Stearns regime. In 2016, the club waited until the 3rd round before drafting hurler Braden Webb. In 2017, they used their round one and Competitive Balance Round A picks on position players prior to selecting Caden Lemons in the second round. And this past summer, the Brewers didn&#8217;t take their first hurler until the fourth round: junior college left-hander Aaron Ashby.</p>
<p>Ashby comes from a big league pedigree; he is the nephew of former MLB pitcher Andy Ashby, who also pitched at Crowder College before going on to a 14-year career that ended with a 4.12 ERA across more than 1,800 innings. Aaron himself finished with an impressive resume at Crowder, posting a 2.29 ERA across 74.2 innings in his final season while leading all Junior College pitchers in strikeouts (156) and strikeout rate (18.8 K/9). But his below-average control (5.18 BB/9) caused him to slip down to 125th overall, where he signed for a slightly above-slot $520,000 bonus.</p>
<p>Ashby began his career in the professional ranks in Helena, Montana, pitching for the Brewers&#8217; Pioneer League affiliate. The bottom-line numbers say that he didn&#8217;t fare too well during his brief stint in rookie ball, as he worked to a 6.20 ERA while logging 20.3 innings. The Pioneer League is notoriously hitter-friendly, however, and the decent 19:8 K/BB ratio and 93 Deserved Run Average Minus (DRA- ) that he produced for Helena are probably more indicative of his true performance during those six outings (on a scale of 100, a DRA- below 100 is better than average). Ashby was never going to be long for rookie ball, and he was promoted to make his debut with the Class-A Wisconsin Timber Rattlers on July 29th.</p>
<p>Aaron would go on to make seven dazzling starts for Appleton to conclude his season, never allowing more than two earned runs in any of them. He tossed six shutout innings in his Midwest League debut against Kane County, and in back-to-back starts against Cedar Rapids on August 19th and Clinton on August 24th, he worked six innings while striking out 10 and 12 batters, respectively. All told, Ashby pitched 37.3 innings at Class-A with a 2.17 ERA, 47 strikeouts against a mere nine walks, and only one home run allowed. He limited opponents to a .233 True Average (TAv) even though he was stung by a .398 batting average on balls in play, and Ashby finished with a sterling Deserved Run Average that saw his work as 39 percent more effective than his Midwest League peers.</p>
<p>Free passes were Ashby&#8217;s biggest bugaboo as a collegiate hurler, but he was able to limit the walks quite well during his first 57.7 innings as a professional in 2018. His 2.7 BB/9 across two levels was nearly half his total during his last year at Crowder, though some scouts wonder how long that will continue as he begins to face more advanced hitters while climbing the minor league ladder. Ashby has a &#8220;funky,&#8221; high-effort delivery that makes it difficult for him to throw strikes at times, but it does add plenty of deception and helped him induce swings aplenty at pitches outside the strike zone against the Pioneer and Midwest League hitters.</p>
<p>The raw stuff is truly excellent, though. A moving fastball that routinely registers in the 91-94 MPH range; A plus curveball that has long been his go-to pitch and was graded by <a href="https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/milwaukee-brewers-2018-mlb-draft-grades/" target="_blank">Baseball America</a> as the best secondary offering of any Brewers&#8217; pitcher drafted in 2018; A power slider that has &#8220;impressive depth and two-plane break,&#8221; that BA says Milwaukee&#8217;s development staff likes even better than the curve; and a changeup that doesn&#8217;t get used much, but projects as an average offering at maturity.</p>
<p>A role as a power reliever will always be there for Ashby to fall back on if the command issues creep back up in the future, but so long as he can continue refining his mechanics and adding strength to his 6&#8217;1&#8243;, 170 lb frame, Ashby could grow into a &#8220;really intriguing mid-rotation prospect&#8221; <a href="https://www.baseballprospectus.com/prospects/article/42165/minor-league-update-games-of-august-17-19/" target="_blank">according to Baseball Prospectus&#8217; Mark Anderson</a>. He&#8217;ll no doubt be hoping to following the footsteps of fellow fourth-round pick Corbin Burnes, who also began as an intriguing prospect from a small college before blossoming under Milwaukee&#8217;s minor league coaching staff. Burnes fashioned himself into an integral part of Milwaukee&#8217;s big league roster within two years of being drafted; with some minor adjustments, Aaron Ashby could follow a similarly quick path to the majors.</p>
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		<title>Taylor Reaches Roster</title>
		<link>http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/11/02/taylor-reaches-roster/</link>
		<comments>http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/11/02/taylor-reaches-roster/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 02 Nov 2018 12:35:28 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Kyle Lesniewski]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[2018 Brewers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[2018 Brewers analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[2018 Brewers minor leagues]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[2018 Brewers prospects]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Brewers minor leagues]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Brewers offseason]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Brewers prospects]]></category>
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		<description><![CDATA[Once upon a time, Tyrone Taylor was considered to be one of the best prospects in all of baseball. The 2012 second-round draftee was rated as Milwaukee&#8217;s Number Two overall prospect prior to the 2014 season according to Baseball America, and he was ranked as the organization&#8217;s top prospect and baseball&#8217;s 93rd overall before the [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Once upon a time, Tyrone Taylor was considered to be one of the best prospects in all of baseball. The 2012 second-round draftee was rated as Milwaukee&#8217;s Number Two overall prospect prior to the 2014 season according to Baseball America, and he was ranked as the organization&#8217;s top prospect and baseball&#8217;s 93rd overall before the 2015 season, just ahead of Orlando Arcia. But as Taylor attempted to make one of the game&#8217;s most difficult developmental jumps from Class-A Advanced to Double-A, it looked like his career was on the verge of stalling out.</p>
<p>His first go-round in the Southern League came in 2015, the inaugural season for the Biloxi Shuckers. He spent the majority of the year manning center field, but after posting solid True Averages (TAv) of .266 for Wisconsin in 2013 and .267 for Brevard County in 2014, Taylor could only manage to put forth a .260/.312/.337 slash for a TAv of .243. Power has never been a major part of Tyrone&#8217;s profile but what little pop he could boast all but evaporated, as he clubbed a mere three home runs while posting an .077 Isolated Power (ISO) mark.</p>
<p>It&#8217;s not uncommon for a player to struggle during their first exposure to Double-A, especially when they make it to the level by the tender age of 21. So it wasn&#8217;t much of a surprise when Taylor returned to the Southern League for a second time in 2016; his continued struggles were flummoxing. This time, he yielded a .232/.303/.327 batting line across 519 plate appearances, with his TAv of .244 almost mirroring his total from the year prior. Tyrone did run into a few more homers (9), but still posted an ISO below .100 and stole fewer than 10 bases (9) for the first time since debuting in full-season ball. Taylor was Rule 5 eligible for the first time that offseason, and he was left unprotected by the Brewers and unpicked by any other team around the league.</p>
<p>His prospect stock was already plummeting when hamstring issues began to plague Taylor during the following season in 2017. He wasn&#8217;t able to get on the field until late June, taking at-bats in the Arizona League for a couple of weeks before heading back to Biloxi for a third time. He wound up finding action in only 25 games for the Shuckers and again, failed to inspire any sort of confidence with his bat. Taylor ended 2017 with a .247/.316/.376 slash in 95 plate appearances, tallying a single home runs and two stolen bases. Another sub-.250 TAv, and Taylor was nowhere near the club&#8217;s top-30 prospect rankings and was once again passed over in the Rule 5 Draft.</p>
<p>Despite his struggles, there was at least one man within the front office who was still in Taylor&#8217;s corner. &#8220;Tyrone Taylor is a guy who really battled injuries last year. He&#8217;s fully healthy. He&#8217;s had a chance to get over into some big league games. The power stroke seems to be coming back. It&#8217;s just great to see him healthy. He&#8217;s been a sleeper in the past,&#8221; Farm Director Tom Flanagan </span><a href="https://www.mlb.com/news/biggest-breakout-prospects-of-2018-nl-central/c-270501272"><span style="font-weight: 400">told MLB Pipeline&#8217;s prospect team</span></a><span style="font-weight: 400"> during Spring Training 2018. The Brewers remained steadfast in their belief that there was still untapped offensive potential within Taylor because of his bat speed and contact ability, and hoped that ability to pepper the gaps with line drives could translate into more home run power. So after three years if struggles in Biloxi, the org decided it was time for a new challenge and assigned Taylor to Triple-A Colorado Springs for the 2018 season.</p>
<p>It was Taylor&#8217;s first subjection to the highest level of the minor leagues, and at age-24 he was nearly two and a half years younger than the median age for the Pacific Coast League. The outfielder was anything but overmatched, however. It was quite the contrary, in fact, as Taylor put together an offensive season like he&#8217;d never produced before. The Sky Sox outfield featured several MLB veterans throughout the course of the season (including Domingo Santana, Keon Broxton, Rymer Liriano, Quintin Berry, Brett Phillips, and Nate Orf, among others) and yet Taylor still saw his name etched on the lineup card nearly everyday, appearing in 119 games. In 481 trips to the plate, he hit .278/.321/.504, translating to a .265 TAv that was his highest in four years. And, as Flanagan and the Pipeline scouts intimated, the power finally showed up: Tyrone launched 20 balls over the fence after never hitting even double-digit dingers in a single season previously.</p>
<p>The key for Taylor appears to have been a successful indoctrination into the ranks of the &#8220;fly ball revolution.&#8221; Early on in his career, his batted ball profile resembled that of most speedsters; plenty of ground balls, relying on his fleet feet to beat out base hits. But things began to shift during his injury-shortened season in 2017, as Taylor (who posted fly ball percentages around 38, 30, and 39 percent, respectively, from 2014-16 in AA) hit 65 percent of his batted balls in the air during his rehab stint in Arizona.Taylor then produced nearly 45 percent flyball rate during his 25 games for Biloxi. In Colorado Springs, his fly ball rate jumped up again, this time close to 50 percent. Taylor hit the ball in the air nearly half the time last season, and his 11 percent HR/FB ratio was double his previous career rate.</p>
<p>Perhaps most impressive is that Taylor was able to add more loft to his swing and dramatically improve his power without sacrificing any of his bat-to-ball ability. He posted a .226 ISO and mashed those 20 taters while striking out in only 15.4 percent of his plate appearances, and he&#8217;s never whiffed at higher than a 19 percent clip at any level of the minors.</p>
<p>Taylor may have added a newfound power stroke to his tool box in 2018, but the speed and defense part of his profile is still indeed present. He once again swiped double-digit bases, nabbing 13 bags on 17 attempts. He&#8217;s also a capable defender at all three outfield spots and spent a majority of his time (56 appearances) in the premium position of center field this season. Taylor piled up 8.9 Fielding Runs Above Average in a shade over 950 innings in the field this season and was credited with a whopping 18 outfield assists, including four double plays.</p>
<p>Tyrone Taylor would have been eligible to become a minor league free agent this fall, but as a reward for his breakout campaign in Colorado Springs, the Milwaukee Brewers purchased his contract and made him a member of the 40 man roster earlier this week. A fallen prospect whose career appeared to be on life support just one year ago, Taylor now seems destined to make his MLB debut at some point in 2019. Milwaukee&#8217;s backup outfielder mix could be in a bit of flux this winter, as both Keon Broxton and Domingo Santana will be out of minor league options heading into camp next spring. With his right-handed bat, ability to go out and get it at all three outfield spots, and full slate of minor league options, Tyrone Taylor could wind up playing a meaningful role for the Menomonee Valley Nine next season. </p>
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		<title>Organizational Audit: Catcher</title>
		<link>http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/10/30/organizational-audit-catcher/</link>
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		<pubDate>Tue, 30 Oct 2018 13:47:26 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Noah Nofz]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[2018 Brewers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[2018 Brewers catcher]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[2018 Brewers catchers]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Brewers minor leaguers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Brewers minor leagues]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Brewers prospects]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Brewers top prospects]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Christian Bethancourt]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[David Fry]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Dustin Houle]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Eriz Kratz]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jacob Nottingham]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jett Bandy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Manny Pina]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Mario Feliciano]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Max McDowell]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Payton Henry]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Robie Rojas]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stephen Vogt]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[Catcher has been an oft-cited area of need for the Brewers over the last several seasons, starting with the trade of Jonathan Lucroy and leading to plenty of speculation over names like J.T. Realmuto, Wilson Ramos, and, in some sectors… Jonathan Lucroy. More recently, some of this speculation has turned to free-agent-to-be Yasmani Grandal and [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Catcher has been an oft-cited area of need for the Brewers over the last several seasons, starting with the trade of Jonathan Lucroy and leading to plenty of speculation over names like J.T. Realmuto, Wilson Ramos, and, in some sectors… Jonathan Lucroy. More recently, some of this speculation has turned to free-agent-to-be Yasmani Grandal and whether his disastrous October could significantly hurt his value on the free agent market. Is there a bargain to be had? (It won’t; there isn’t.)</p>
<p>Yes, Grandal or Realmuto would represent significant upgrades. But in the meantime, David Stearns, Craig Counsell, and the rest of the Brewers staff have been able to squeeze great value out of the current crop of time-shares and journeymen. Looking beyond the major league roster, catcher is a position full of surprising contributors up and down the organizational ladder. What follows is an overview of some of those contributors, as well as some brief notes on their outlook for the 2019 season and beyond. Upgrading would be nice; staying the course is probably fine, as well.</p>
<hr />
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h3>Major League Options</h3>
<p><strong>Player Name: Plate Appearances, Batting Average / On Base Percentage / Slugging Percentage, Wins Above Replacement Player (WARP)</strong></p>
<p><strong>Manny Piña; 337 PA, .252/.307/.395, 1.7 WARP</strong><br />
For the second year in a row, Piña handled the lion’s share of catching duties for Milwaukee. He continued to be a steady performer, offering tolerable offense and sturdy defense. His offensive production fell off some, relative to his breakout 2017 campaign, thanks to a slow start and a dip in Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP). Piña turned it on in the second half, hitting .295/.328/.429 after the break even as he lost playing time to immortal folk hero Erik Kratz.</p>
<p>With just over three years of service time on his major league clock, Piña is controllable for three more seasons through the arbitration process. He’ll be 34 by then, so it’s likely that someone else will have wrested away the bulk of available playing time behind the dish. Still, he handles a pitching staff well, and figures to get plenty of turns through the order in 2019 barring a major roster shakeup.</p>
<p><strong>Erik Kratz; 219 PA, .236/.280/.355, 1.4 WARP</strong><br />
Erik Kratz came to the Brewers via a surprise trade with the Yankees, and wasted little time in endearing himself to fans and teammates alike. Though he didn&#8217;t bring much of a big league résumé into Milwaukee, he performed quite well in limited time, making up for his anemic offensive output with superlative glove work (11.1 Adjusted Fielding Runs Above Average in fewer than 500 defensive innings!).</p>
<p>Kratz elected free agency when he was removed from the Yankees’ 40-man roster prior to the 2018 season. He re-signed with New York before his trade to Milwaukee, but finished the year with fewer than six years of big league service time to his name. He can be controlled via arbitration for the 2019 season, though at age 39, he may have retirement (or a late career surge as a knuckle-balling reliever) on his mind. I’m not betting on a return, much as my heart hopes otherwise.</p>
<p><strong>Stephen Vogt; Did Not Play in Majors (Shoulder Surgery)</strong><br />
All-around good guy Stephen Vogt was limited to 9 plate appearances for the Biloxi Shuckers in May before undergoing season-ending shoulder surgery. It was the second major shoulder operation of Vogt’s career; his big league future is in jeopardy. I&#8217;m not aware of any public information on his rehab, but Vogt could be controlled via arbitration in 2019 if he’s able to work his way back to the ball field.</p>
<p>For his career, Vogt is a .251/.310/.416 hitter, good for a strong .267 True Average (TAv). He’s below-average with the glove, though, and struggled to throw out base runners even before re-injuring his throwing arm. He’s well-loved among his teammates, but Vogt’s path back to the majors may be as a reserve first baseman or a DH.</p>
<p><strong>Jacob Nottingham; 196 PA, .281/.347/.528 in Triple-A</strong><br />
Public opinion of Nottingham was fairly sour heading in to the year, and it’s not too difficult to see why: A .209/.326/.369 slash line in your second year of AA isn’t going to win over many casual fans. Biloxi is a run-suppressing environment, though, in a tough league for hitters. So that same ugly triple-slash translated to a barely-above-average.264 TAv. This year, with much better baseball-card stats courtesy of Colorado Springs, Nottingham’s TAv in the minors was all the way up to .282.</p>
<p>Expecting that kind of production in the big leagues, at least at first, is probably foolish. In his (very) limited time in Milwaukee, Nottingham compiled just 24 plate appearances and looked a tad over-matched at times, striking out on eight occasions. He also drew four walks, to his credit, and the sample size is far too small to be seriously examined. Most excitingly, Nottingham can seriously hurt a baseball when he finds one in his sweet spot, to the tune of 450+ feet. He’s made tremendous strides with the glove over the last few years, transforming himself into something approaching an average defensive catcher. Couple that with league-average-or-better offense at the position, and he still has the ability to produce sneaky value for the Brewers over the next six seasons. (Catchers in 2018 batted .232/.304/.372, so Nottingham doesn’t have to turn into Pudge Rodriguez to give the Brewers a boost.) I’m hoping he piles up a couple hundred big league plate appearances next season.</p>
<p><strong>Jett Bandy; 216 PA, .292/.353/.510 in Triple-A</strong><br />
Bandy broke camp with the Brewers, but failed to impress. He hit .188/.268/.266 with shaky defense in 24 games before being removed from the roster and passed over on waivers. The 28-year-old came alive in Triple-A, but he’s reaching do-or-die status as a major league contributor. He’ll have to contend with at least two of the above names on the depth chart, and will likely struggle to find big league playing time should he remain in the Brewers organization. Still, he’s youngish enough and talented enough that he has a chance to shed his current quad-A label and become a solid backup with some pop.</p>
<hr />
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h3>Prospects and Depth</h3>
<p><strong>Christian Bethancourt; 418 PA, .297/.328/.506 in Triple-A</strong><br />
Brought in on a minor league pact, Bethancourt played very well in his return from the pitcher’s mound. He has soft hands behind the dish, and a good arm. He also hit a bit in Colorado Springs, with 20 home runs and a nifty .271 TAv. One knock on his offense: He gave away plenty of walks as a pitcher, but largely refuses them as a hitter.</p>
<p>Bethancourt was brought into the organization on a minor league pact. There will be plenty of plate appearances available for catchers in AAA next year, but it’s no guarantee that Bethancourt will be making the move to San Antonio along with the rest of the organization&#8217;s most advanced minor leaguers. Plenty of rebuilding clubs may take a roll of the dice on the former top prospect.</p>
<p><strong>Dustin Houle and Max McDowell, Advanced A &amp; Double-A</strong><br />
These two are the same age, and at about the same stage developmentally. Houle was drafted out of high school way back in 2011; McDowell followed from college in 2015.</p>
<p>Houle is a big-bodied catcher without a true carrying tool. He’s got a decent arm and is fairly strong, but the lack of a hit tool cramps his game power. He’s a nice organizational depth piece, but something very strange will have happened if he sees major league time in 2019.</p>
<p>McDowell has a bit more upside, with a strong throwing arm, decent athleticism, solid glove, and some untapped raw power. He flashed a nice bat in Wisconsin in 2016, but his hit tool hasn’t progressed much as he’s moved up the ladder. He’s got a chance to turn into a light-hitting backup at the highest level.</p>
<p><strong>Mario Feliciano; 165 PA, .205/.282/.329 in Advanced A </strong><br />
2018 was basically a lost season for the 19-year-old, who battled back from an arm injury to play in 42 games for the Carolina Mudcats. He started slow in June, showed signs of life in July, then cratered in August. It was a disappointing year for a player who impressed in 2017 as one of the youngest prospects in the Midwest League. Ultimately, though, I see little reason to dampen long-term expectations. Catching at Class-Advanced A is an almost laughable challenge for a 19-year-old. He should return for another round in 2019, and I expect him to play pretty well. Keep in mind that the Carolina League is hard on hitters, so his stat line may not be all that impressive. The fact that he’ll be there at all, though, at 20 years old? Impressive. The defense could use some work, and he has plenty of time for that. Meanwhile, he could develop into a .270 hitter with a line-drive approach and average power.</p>
<p>Feliciano is currently playing in the Arizona Fall League to make up for some of his lost time this year. It’s not working, though: He’s only worked his way into two games, with one single in four at bats.</p>
<p><strong>Payton Henry; 389 PA, .234/.327/.380 in Advanced A</strong><br />
Henry had a rough April and a tremendous May, followed by an acceptable June and July and a ghastly August and September. He’s a bat-first prospect with plus raw power, but he struck out in about 32 percent of his plate appearances. He needs to work on his receiving and his arm if he wants to stay behind the plate; he becomes a much less exciting prospect if he moves to first base or an outfield corner.</p>
<hr />
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><strong>Worth Noting</strong><br />
Finally, backstops David Fry and Robie Rojas are due a mention here. Fry hit .315/.406/.563 while playing catcher, first base, and third base for the rookie league Helena Brewers. He drew 29 walks and struck out just 42 times in 261 plate appearances. Rojas, a 38th-round pick in 2017, spent plenty of time on the 7-day Disabled List and was relegated to the minor league taxi squad. He managed just 66 plate appearances on the year, including 13 at Triple-A, and hit surprisingly well in a (very small) 13-game sample in Carolina. All together, he had a line of .304/.409/.393.</p>
<p>Fry’s rookie league stats, while nice, are by and large worthless, and I have no idea what to make of Rojas at this point. But I’ll be curious to see what the organization does with both of these prospects in 2019.</p>
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		<title>Weston Wilson: Unlikely Javelina</title>
		<link>http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/09/17/weston-wilson-unlikely-javelina/</link>
		<comments>http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/09/17/weston-wilson-unlikely-javelina/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 17 Sep 2018 13:00:26 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Noah Nofz]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[2018 Brewers analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[2018 Brewers minor leagues]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Brewers minor leagues]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Brewers prospect analysis]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Hernan Perez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Weston Wilson]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=12555</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The 2018 Brewers minor league season went out with a bit of a fizzle on Saturday evening, as the Biloxi Shuckers fell 3-2 to the Jackson Generals in game four of the Southern League Championship Series. Tough end notwithstanding, it was an interesting year for player development up and down the Milwaukee system, and particularly [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The 2018 Brewers minor league season went out with a bit of a fizzle on Saturday evening, as the Biloxi Shuckers fell 3-2 to the Jackson Generals in game four of the Southern League Championship Series. Tough end notwithstanding, it was an interesting year for player development up and down the Milwaukee system, and particularly for those Shuckers, where the performances of Keston Hiura, Corey Ray, Zack Brown, Trey Supak, and others helped raise the collective floor of the organizational talent pool. Several members of that Biloxi club are among the Brewers’ representatives in the Arizona Fall League, where they’ll have another chance to prove their mettle against some of the best competition in minor league ball.</p>
<p>The Brewers are sending the customary eight delegates to the Fall League this year, mixing well-known names with a few under-the-radar selections. Most fans are familiar with top prospect Keston Hiura, former first-round pick Trent Grisham, and young catcher Mario Feliciano. Bubba Derby, many will remember, was part of the trade that sent Khris Davis to Oakland. That quartet  headlines the group of prospects on their way to Arizona, where they’ll be joined by relievers <a href="http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/07/24/relief-riser-miguel-sanchez/">Miguel Sanchez</a> and <a href="http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/09/07/jon-olczak-goes-to-arizona/">John Olczak</a>, both of whom have been covered on the site in recent weeks, and Daniel Brown. That leaves corner utility player Weston Wilson as the eighth man in.</p>
<p>Wilson enjoyed a nice campaign with the bat this year, producing a combined 270 batting average /.326 on-base percentage /.434 slugging percentage between two levels. The majority of that damage came in the Carolina League, where he played 105 games as a Mudcat and hit .274/.330/.446 for a healthy True Average (TAv) of .273 before a late-season bump to Biloxi. That continues something of a trend for Wilson, who split the 2017 season between Wisconsin and Carolina, hitting quite well at the former and scuffling some upon his promotion. The optimist’s view here is that Wilson makes adjustments as he develops, enduring some early struggles only to emerge a stronger, smarter ballplayer the following year. Someone less inclined to rose-colored glasses may point out that Wilson, a 16th round draftee out of Clemson in 2016, has always started the year a little old for his level, and simply performed in the low minors much as a decent college hitter should. Neither is a bad thing, really. But as a point of comparison, bear in mind that Wilson was drafted the same year as Ronnie Gideon, and signed for a similar bonus. Both hitters destroyed Rookie League ball in 2016, but their paths diverged after that: Wilson hit well for the Timber Rattlers, conquered the Mudcats, and has advanced to Double-A; Gideon struggled in Appleton for a full year, failed to do much for Carolina, and was released mid-season. Wilson may not be a highly-touted prospect, but he is separating himself from his peers in that particular cohort.</p>
<p>Something else to endear Wilson to the Milwaukee faithful: He’s capable of playing all over the field. Wilson started games at first, second, third base, and shortstop, as well as in left and right field this year, racking up most of his innings at first, third, and in left. The eye test reveals at least an average defender; Baseball Prospectus sees his defense as a potential plus. Wilson accumulated 7.3 Fielding Runs Above Average (FRAA) in the minors this year, a strong mark for any player. That’s a bit out of tune with his earlier defensive value (1.8 FRAA in 2017, -3.1 FRAA in 2016), but certainly enough to suggest a competent fielder. As positional labels begin to <a href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/baseball-positions-are-starting-to-lose-their-meaning/">lose meaning</a> across the league, Wilson’s comfort with moving around the diamond could become a true asset.</p>
<p>Monitoring Wilson’s development in Arizona and beyond should provide plenty of interest. His 2018 season was carried by a monster month of July, wherein he hit .436/.481/.681 across 27 games and 106 red-hot plate appearances. That came after a putrid June which saw him bat .176/.220/.253 in a similar amount of playing time. Ideally, he’d smooth over those kinds of extreme streaks in the future. He’ll also have to prove that he’s capable of handling advanced pitching at the Double-A and Triple-A levels. Happily, there’s some indication that he’s already begun that journey. Though he finished the regular season hitting .239/.286/.326 (.238 TAv) in a dozen games for the Shuckers, he caught fire in the postseason, going 10-for-27 with a pair of doubles for a .370/.452/.444 line in eight games. Fold that into his regular season work, and he hit .288/.342/.370 wearing a Shuckers uniform. Not shabby for a super-utility sort.</p>
<p>Prior to 2018, Wilson was best known as the prospect who <a href="https://www.milb.com/milb/news/milwaukee-brewers-prospect-weston-wilson-proposes-at-carolina-mudcats-game/c-228712344">proposed to his girlfriend</a> after she threw out a ceremonial first pitch (incidentally, the video clip in that link suggests that Wilson could bring considerable value as a pitch framer, should he ever encounter the tools of ignorance). Another season like his last could change that in a hurry, especially if he shows well in Arizona next month. Should Wilson continue to develop as he has, he could be manning the diamond Hernán Pérez-style with fellow 2018 Shucker (and partner-in-rhyme) Keston Hiura for years of competitive Brewers baseball to come. Don’t be surprised if you start to see a #FreeWestonWilson campaign start to crop up next year or the year after, and be sure to check out Wilson this fall if you have a chance.</p>
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		<title>Dylan Moore Hits</title>
		<link>http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/06/29/dylan-moore-hits/</link>
		<comments>http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/06/29/dylan-moore-hits/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 29 Jun 2018 12:28:43 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Kyle Lesniewski]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[2018 Brewers analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[2018 Brewers minor league analysis]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Brewers minor leagues]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=11997</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Despite dealing away some of their most promising young players in the Christian Yelich trade this past January, the Milwaukee Brewers still have a strong assembly of minor league talent in their pipeline. Keston Hiura, the club&#8217;s #1 prospect, is obviously the most well-known, but Corey Ray is also finally making good on his tools [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Despite dealing away some of their most promising young players in the Christian Yelich trade this past January, the Milwaukee Brewers still have a strong assembly of minor league talent in their pipeline. Keston Hiura, the club&#8217;s #1 prospect, is obviously the most well-known, but Corey Ray is also finally making good on his tools down in Biloxi. Meanwhile, guys like Brett Phillips, Troy Stokes, Jacob Nottingham, and Lucas Erceg can all put a charge into the ball. But none of those names littered among the top prospect lists are currently leading the organization in hitting. In terms of on-base percentage-plus-slugging percentage (OPS), that title currently belongs to 25 year old infielder Dylan Moore.</p>
<p>Moore began his career just a few short years ago, when he was selected by the Texas Rangers in the 7th round of the 2015 MLB Draft. A cash-saving senior sign, he inked for only a $20,000 bonus coming out of Central Florida. But even at that time, scouts were a little bit higher on Moore than your typical run-of-the-mill college senior, with <a href="https://www.baseballamerica.com/players/7416/" target="_blank">Baseball America</a> noting that he was a solid all-around player with a disciplined approach and improving power whose makeup and instincts helped him get the most of his tools.</p>
<p>Moore hit the ground running once he arrived in the professional ranks. He began his time as a pro with the Spokane Indians of the Northwest League and posted a True Average (TAv) north of .300 in 65 games before getting a promotion to the Hickory Crawdads of the Sally League for a brief four-game foray to close out the season. In 69 games between the two stops, Moore hit a combined .271/.376/.454 with seven home runs and 15 steals. He began 2016 back in Hickory as a 23 year old and though he only hit for a paltry .244 batting average, Moore drew a free pass in 13 percent of his plate appearances and hit for extra bases 30 times in 101 games, including nine home runs. That translated to a .244/.372/.394 slash for a terrific .301 TAv, and on top of that he swiped 37 bags with an 80 percent success rate.</p>
<p>The Rangers then brought Moore up to Class-A Advanced High Desert, where he demolished the ball for 17 games. In 80 plate appearances, Moore slashed .351/.400/.649, clubbed five dingers, seven doubles, and nabbed three bases. Then on August 24th, Moore was sent to Atlanta as part of a complicated three team deal that ultimately brought Jeff Francoeur from Atlanta to Miami, prospect Matt Foley from Miami to Atlanta, and three international bonus slots to Texas.</p>
<p>Atlanta assigned Moore to the Class-A Advanced Carolina Mudcats (now a Brewers&#8217; affiliate) and he closed out the year by hitting for a .337 TAv in 10 games. All together in 2016, Moore posted a .269/.379/.441 slash with 14 home runs and 42 steals. Wanting to see more of Dylan, the Braves made him one of their representatives for the Arizona Fall League and he only continued to impress. In 11 games for the Salt River Rafters, Moore hit .317/.378/.537 with two homers and two steals. Even though he was slightly old for each league that he played in during his highly successful 2016 campaign, Moore began to show up on the back end of Braves prospect lists that offseason. That includes the <a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/top-32-prospects-atlanta-braves/" target="_blank">Fangraphs&#8217; list</a>, where Eric Longenhagen ranked him #26:</p>
<p><em>&#8220;Despite a very simple swing consisting of very little lower half use, Moore is able to generate average raw power, and he can torch balls on the inner half. When pitchers are working him away, he has trouble getting the bat head there without extending his hands early and arriving late&#8230;He’s a 40 runner and, despite having played most of his pro career there, I don’t think he fits at short full time. He’s already begun to see time at the other three infield spots, and he spent time in the outfield with Texas&#8230;I like him as a mistake-hitting utility man who plays all over the field.&#8221;</em></p>
<p>Mark Anderson of Baseball Prospectus also <a href="https://www.baseballprospectus.com/prospects/article/30614/minor-league-update-games-of-october-21st-23rd/" target="_blank">had some praise for the utilityman</a> during the Fall League:</p>
<p><em>&#8220;Already 24-years old, Moore is far from a high-end prospect, but he’s shown some bat-to-ball ability and gap pop since signing as seventh round pick in 2015. Traded as part of a three-team deal that sent international bonus pools in every direction, Moore has the feel and high effort style of play to make his modest tools work in a utility role at the big league level.&#8221;</em></p>
<p>They say the toughest jump for any minor league ballplayer is the one from Class-A Advanced up to Double-A, as Double-A is often where a player&#8217;s abilities are tested for the first time against other young men with the realistic goal of making the big leagues. Unfortunately for Moore, that leap proved too difficult to handle effectively, at least his first time around. Unable to build on his success from the previous season, Moore could manage only a .207/.291/.292 slash in 122 games for an anemic .236 TAv. He struck out in nearly 20 percent of his plate appearances and couldn&#8217;t drive the ball at all like he did previously, yielding only an .086 ISO. He wasn&#8217;t nearly as effective on the base paths either, swiping only 10 bases successfully in 18 attempts.</p>
<p>But most of the damage to Moore&#8217;s feeble full-season output came during the first two months of the 2017 season, and once he got his feet wet at the Double-A level his production began to improve. In 67 games from June 15th through the end of the season, Moore hit .260/.347/.351, which actually translated to a better-than-average batting line in the pitching-friendly Southern League. That wasn&#8217;t enough to save him, however. Atlanta kept Dylan around through the 2017-18 offseason, but apparently had soured on him enough that they surprisingly released him during this past Spring Training.</p>
<p>In desperate need of middle infield depth in their upper minors, the Milwaukee Brewers wasted little time in pouncing on Moore once he became available. He inked a minor league deal on April 3rd and reported to Biloxi for a second-chance at taking down the Southern League. He didn&#8217;t last very long at Double-A, but this time it was for a good reason. Moore started 24 games for the Shuckers, and in 91 plate appearances he demolished his foes to the tune of a .373/.429/.639 slash with three long balls, three triples, seven doubles, and six steals. On May 10th, he was promoted to Triple-A for the first time in his career.</p>
<p>Moore&#8217;s bat has stayed hot at the highest level of the minors. He&#8217;s now suited up in 41 games for the Sky Sox. In 151 plate appearances, he&#8217;s hitting .313/.384/.560 with another five homers and nine more steals. The hitter-friendly environs of Colorado Springs dampen that to a still-strong .282 TAv, but in 242 plate appearances between Biloxi and Colorado Springs Moore now owns an org-leading .991 OPS. He&#8217;s also started games at every fielding position except catcher and right field this season. A shortstop by trade, Moore can still handle the spot but possesses only an average arm and he has spent most of his time at second base and third base since getting bumped up to the Sky Sox.</p>
<p>Moore will turn 26 later this summer and will be Rule 5-eligible for the first time this coming offseason. He appears to have gotten his game back on track is getting close to fulfilling the future 50 hit, 50 raw power grades that Longenhagen placed on him only two winters ago. A solid contact hitter (16.9 percent K rate this season) from the right side who can play all over the field, Moore&#8217;s profile is a bit reminiscent of current MLB super-utilityman Hernan Perez, who has proven to be an extremely useful (although not exactly <em>good</em>) player in parts of four seasons with Milwaukee. Moore may even have a little bit more power potential, and certainly appears to possess a better eye at the plate, meaning that he could have even more upside in a utility role than Hammerin&#8217; Hernan has shown. Given how the Brewers have cycled through the middle infielders already this season as they chase their first playoff berth in seven years, it certainly wouldn&#8217;t come as a surprise to see Dylan Moore get an opportunity before the end of 2018.</p>
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		<title>Building a Minor League System</title>
		<link>http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/06/22/building-a-minor-league-system/</link>
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		<pubDate>Fri, 22 Jun 2018 11:00:06 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Nicholas Zettel]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[baseball labor analysis]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=11943</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Minor league baseball players deserve higher pay. That is the first structural fact that must be recognized in discussing the organizational aspects of player development. Minor league players are professional baseball players who participate in the process of producing a $10.5 (and growing) billion industry. Stepping outside of the distributive justice of this question, there [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Minor league baseball players deserve higher pay. That is the first structural fact that must be recognized in discussing the organizational aspects of player development. Minor league players are <em>professional</em> baseball players who participate in the process of producing a $10.5 (and growing) billion industry. </p>
<p>Stepping outside of the distributive justice of this question, there are numerous structural elements that currently give MLB clubs incentive to pay minor league players at a low rate. The first structural impediment is the MLB Draft slot system, which now forces MLB clubs to pay quite steep penalties for spending more than their allotted slot money on a given amateur draft. For example, Table One below approximates the historical value of losing a mid-round first pick versus spending approximately $600,000 to land a couple of over-slot signings that might have slipped beyond Round Ten. Basically, given the current MLB slot system rules, an MLB team would have to find a way to sign two Second-Round ceiling guys in the mid rounds in order to justify losing a first round pick; in reality, the bonuses an MLB team would be required to pay potential Second-Round ceilings that fell to the middle of the draft would likely be higher than the 10 percent overage penalty. This keeps players like Keston Hiura, who would be worth at least $20 million contracts on the open market, from earning that amount early in their respective careers. </p>
<p><em>Table One: Approximate Historical MLB Draft Surplus Value</em></p>
<table width="" border="" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0">
<tr bgcolor="#EDF1F3">
<th align="center">Approximate Surplus Value (Pick 1-15)</th>
<th align="center">Approximate Surplus Value (Round 2-through-10)</th>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">$18.0M to $19.0M</td>
<td align="center">$8.0M to $8.5M</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center"></td>
<td align="center">$3.5M to $4.0M</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center"></td>
<td align="center">$2.0M to $2.3M</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center"></td>
<td align="center">$2.0M</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center"></td>
<td align="center">$0.7M to $1.0M</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center"></td>
<td align="center">$0.2M to $0.7M</td>
</tr>
</table>
<p>Additionally, if the bulk of professional careers end in the low levels of a system, MLB teams are most constrained by Minor League Baseball rules to deflate pay at the lowest levels (a Minor League player cannot earn more than <a href="http://www.milb.com/milb/info/faq.jsp?mc=business">$1,100 per month</a> during their first contract year. According to Minor League Baseball, salaries are open to negotiation after that point). The ideal of a vertically aligned player development system essentially serves as a giant check on a player&#8217;s professional earning potential, and it may even exaggerate odds of a player reaching the MLB. After all, if one views the idea that a player can only reasonably reach the MLB out of Double-A or Triple-A affiliates, then one would be hard-pressed to expect most players to reach the MLB with fewer than four years of seasoning. </p>
<p>What is stunning about the structures of the Amateur Draft and Affiliated Minor League baseball system is their rigidity where no rigidity is required. Throughout a sizable portion of professional baseball history, the minor leagues were more of a frontier for MLB baseball than a proving ground, as competitive leagues across the USA often operated with players that would widely be viewed as MLB-equivalent. The Pacific Coast League of the early Twentieth Century is probably the most famous example of this level of talent (especially because those years occurred prior to MLB&#8217;s westward expansion), but it is surely not the lone example. Now, in an environment where many fans and analysts are obsessed with finding &#8220;the next market inefficiency,&#8221; the structure of Affiliated Minor League baseball itself may be worth realignment. </p>
<p>The beauty of Minor League structure is that any individual team could operate according to their own structural preference at any point in time. According to <a href="http://www.milb.com/milb/info/faq.jsp?mc=business#ixzz5J7JEfJF0">Minor League Baseball</a>, &#8220;Major League organizations can promote players through the affiliated leagues, or directly to the Majors, as they wish.&#8221; What is fascinating about this idea is that an MLB club could simply keep their own players in complex ball for years, and then promote them to the MLB, or they could simply promote everyone to the MLB after signing out of the Amateur Draft (or any combination in-between). Additionally, contractual obligations after the first year are wide open for MLB clubs, giving them fantastic flexibility to sign minor league contracts to any deals they like. </p>
<p>Regarding contracts, then, a speculative opportunity for MLB teams, especially a relatively small market franchise like the Brewers, rests in the second, third, fourth, etc., years of minor league play. After an MLB team basically is forced to pay a minor leaguer approximately $7,000 during their first year of work, the club could settle any arrangement they like with a player. For example, consider a long-term development play like Tristen Lutz, or Carlos Herrera; the Brewers could conceivably have signed both players to four-year, $400,000 minor league development deals beginning with 2018. Keston Hiura could have been signed out of the draft with a three-year, minor league development deal worth $1,000,000, and so on and so forth. Where this logic leads is to a mechanism through which a club like the Brewers could exploit amateur draft slot rules by offering a player draft day bonuses that do not trigger the overage rules by using an understanding that the player would receive a well-priced development deal in their second year. </p>
<p>In terms of league structure, one wonders why an MLB team would not use their complex facilities to organize several teams&#8217; worth of players to train within a closed organizational structure. On this systemic development, a team like the Brewers could sign anywhere between 200-to-300 players of varying talent levels, and operate eight-to-ten teams at the Complex Level. These teams could face one another, and essentially produce a league in which Milwaukee Brewers organizational strategies and development occurred within a relatively controlled circuit. This could also streamline coaching, training, and managerial functions, in order to ensure that the very best coaching talent receives the greatest reach in terms of impact; if a club can identify their best coaches and trainers, why shouldn&#8217;t they have leadership roles that impact 200-to-300 players instead of 20-to-30? </p>
<p>Additionally, is worth questioning whether the discrepancies between league environments actually provide developmental challenges to ascending prospects in a manner that actually prepares them for the MLB-levels of professional baseball; this question should not simply be raised given the difficult pitching environment for Triple-A Colorado Springs, which has claimed several Brewers pitching prospects from starting pitching roles thus far. This question could be raised about early-spring weather conditions in the Midwest League, offensive-suppressing environments in some advanced leagues, etc. This question can also be raised in terms of high-floor roles, as intriguing organizational depth prospect Thomas Jankins is proving after jumping from Class-A Midwest to Double-A Southern League, or Cardinals pitcher Jordan Hicks is proving after jumping from Advanced-A to MLB. </p>
<p><em>Table Two: Conventional Minor League Structure and One Speculative Alternative</em></p>
<table width="" border="" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0">
<tr bgcolor="#EDF1F3">
<th align="center">Speculative Brewers Organizations (teams)</th>
<th align="center">Conventional</th>
<th align="center">Speculative Model</th>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">Level</td>
<td align="center">DSL (1)</td>
<td align="center">-</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">Level</td>
<td align="center">R (1)</td>
<td align="center">AZ Complex (2)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">Level</td>
<td align="center">R+ (1)</td>
<td align="center">AZ Complex (2)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">Level</td>
<td align="center">A (1)</td>
<td align="center">AZ Complex (2)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">Level</td>
<td align="center">A+ (1)</td>
<td align="center">-</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">Level</td>
<td align="center">AA (1)</td>
<td align="center">AA (2)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">Level</td>
<td align="center">AAA (1)</td>
<td align="center">AAA (2)</td>
</tr>
</table>
<p>But mostly, if the Brewers were to suddenly restructure their complex ball to support its own league of intraorganizational ball, and the club poured between $25 to $50 million to support those efforts, the organization could potentially gain an advantage in reserving the rights of more minor league players through larger development contracts while also placing the players into an environment better suited to cushion the variance inherent in player development. Additionally, the Brewers could gain an advantage by organizing a new form of competitive player development by which players of varying talent levels are scouted, coached, taught, and cared for (in terms of diet, health care, etc.) within one locale. There could even be an advantage in playing related affiliates against one another, in order to view organizational strategies in competition with one another. </p>
<p>Yet this strategy of competitive player development need not occur solely at the complex level. The Brewers ought to scrutinize the best combination of affiliated clubs for the purposes of player development, which may not be a vertically aligned staircase (from Class-A to Advanced-A to Double-A and Triple-A). If the Carolina League is indeed a solid development environment, the Brewers should buy another Carolina League franchise, and maintain a second Advanced-A team in that locale. If the team continues to hope that a replacement-by-design, shuttle squad, high-floor, MLB depth role roster can be constructed (as the current 40-man roster and Advanced Minors are constructed), the team could benefit from having two Double-A clubs. </p>
<p>This is a rather speculative discussion, but it is worth emphasizing that if professional player development is non-linear, non-linear organizational structures could benefit the process. There is no reason to maintain the fiction of a progressing development staircase to the MLB when front office has the resources to make alternative modes of development work. </p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>2018 Breakouts</title>
		<link>http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/12/29/2018-breakouts/</link>
		<comments>http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/12/29/2018-breakouts/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 29 Dec 2017 15:41:53 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Kyle Lesniewski]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[2017 Brewers prospects]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[2018 Brewers prospects]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Brewers minor leagues]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Brewers prospect analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Brewers prospects]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jordan Yamamoto]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tristen Lutz]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=10868</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[2017 was an important developmental year for Milwaukee&#8217;s farm system, especially after what most considered a &#8220;down year&#8221; in terms of performances across the board in 2016. The Brewers saw the advancement and major league debuts of several notable prospects, including Josh Hader, Lewis Brinson, Brett Phillips, and Brandon Woodruff. These players already figure to [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>2017 was an important developmental year for Milwaukee&#8217;s farm system, especially after what most considered a &#8220;down year&#8221; in terms of performances across the board in 2016. The Brewers saw the advancement and major league debuts of several notable prospects, including Josh Hader, Lewis Brinson, Brett Phillips, and Brandon Woodruff. These players already figure to play key roles for the ball club next season and going forward. Further on down the ladder, Corbin Burnes and Freddy Peralta battled for the organization&#8217;s Minor League Pitcher of the Year while other advanced hurlers like Jon Perrin, Aaron Wilkerson, and Cody Ponce helped provide more clarity for their future rotational depth roles; Monte Harrison was finally healthy enough to show off his five-tool potential, Keston Hiura hit the ground running after being selected in June&#8217;s amateur draft, and others like Jake Gatewood, Lucas Erceg, and Troy Stokes enjoyed successful campaigns, as well.</p>
<p><strong>Related Reading</strong>: <a href="http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/12/23/2017-breakouts/">2017 Breakouts</a></p>
<p>As 2017 draws to a close and we begin to look ahead to what the new year may bring, which under-the-radar prospects could be breakout performers in 2018?</p>
<p><strong>OF Tristen Lutz (2018 age: 19)</strong></p>
<p>Lutz fell to the Brewers in Competitive Balance Round A in this past summer&#8217;s draft, getting popped at #34 overall. The Arlington, Texas native was considered to be one of the best prep bats available, with <a href="https://www.baseballamerica.com/statistics/players/cards/99344/tristen-lutz" target="_blank">Baseball America</a> praising him as &#8220;an easy bat to believe in.&#8221; It took a signing bonus of nearly $400,000 above slot to entice Lutz away from his collegiate commitment to Texas, but the early returns on that investment look promising. Lutz played in 40 games between Milwaukee&#8217;s two rookie-level affiliates and compiled a stellar .311/.398/.559 slash with nine home runs for a .295 TAv.</p>
<p>Though he was drafted out of high school, Lutz has a man&#8217;s body at 6&#8217;3&#8243; and 210 pounds. He has plenty of present strength that helps drive his plus raw power from the right side of the plate, power he&#8217;s already shown the ability to tap into during in-game settings. For the moment, Lutz is an above-average runner and he spent most of the summer patrolling center field, but the belief among scouts is that he&#8217;ll wind up settling into a corner spot. His plus arm strength would help him profile as an above-average defender in right field. Some stiffness and effort in his swing have caused some concern about the future utility of his hit tool, and he did strike out in 22.5 percent of his plate appearances last season.</p>
<p>Scouts have praised Lutz&#8217;s makeup and feel for the game, and he ranked in the &#8220;next ten&#8221; of the <a href="https://www.baseballprospectus.com/prospects/article/34948/2018-prospects-milwaukee-brewers-top-10-prospects-lewis-brinson-monte-harrison-keston-hiura-rankings/" target="_blank">BP Top 10 prospects list</a> for the Brewers for 2018. Lutz still has a long ways to go before he&#8217;s cranking dingers out of Miller Park, but for now he is a strong candidate to receive a full-season assignment in 2018, likely to Class A Wisconsin.</p>
<p><strong>RHP Jordan Yamamoto (2018 age: 22)</strong></p>
<p>Milwaukee&#8217;s scouts must have enjoyed their trips to Hawaii in 2014. Yamamoto garnered some attention by outdueling Kodi Medeiros during a matchup about a month before that year&#8217;s draft, and after the Brewers chose Medeiros with their 1st-round selection, they later plucked up Yamamoto in the 12th round. An over-slot $330,000 bonus convinced the right-hander to forgo his commitment to Arizona and join the professional ranks.</p>
<p>After spending his first two seasons in rookie ball, Yamamoto has quietly been excellent the past two years in his two full-season assignments. He spent all of 2016 with Class A Wisconsin, logging 134.3 innings with a 1.90 DRA, 84 DRA-, and 152:31 K/BB ratio. A promotion to Class A-Advanced Carolina in 2017 didn&#8217;t slow Yamamoto down, though an injury did limit him to 111.0 innings. They were pretty darn quality, though, as Yamamoto captured the league&#8217;s ERA title with a 2.51 total. A DRA- of 63 placed him alongside the most dominant pitchers in the league, and his peripherals remained strong with marks of 9.2 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9.</p>
<p>Yamamoto doesn&#8217;t fit the archetypal pitcher&#8217;s build, as he stands at an even 6&#8217;0&#8243; and weighs 185 lbs. Eric Longenhagen of Fangraphs called Yamamoto a &#8220;spin rate darling&#8221; in his write up of the hurler within his recent Top 30 Brewers prospects post, noting that he works from a low three-quarters arm slot with a fastball that sits in the 89-92 MPH range and can touch as high as 94 MPH. He spins his curveball at nearly 2,000 RPM and it grades out as a future plus offering. Longenhagen believes that Jordan&#8217;s changeup is below-average and though he&#8217;s posted low walk totals at every stop, he gives his command a fringe average grade, as well.</p>
<p>The physical build and repertoire concerns could be enough to eventually relegate Yamamoto to a relief role, but given his prior success there&#8217;s little reason to believe that he won&#8217;t begin 2018 in the rotation at Class AA Biloxi. If he can continue to limit the walks and perhaps take a step forward with the cambio, an eventual spot in the back end of an MLB rotation is within reach.</p>
<p><em><a href="http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/12/23/2017-breakouts/" target="_blank">Last year&#8217;s picks</a>:</em></p>
<p><em>Zach Clark: .225/.327/.392, 7 HR, 10 SB in 248 PA with Helena, Wisconsin<br />
</em><em>Jon Perrin: 2.91 ERA, 64 DRA-, 7.8 K/9, 1.8 BB/9 in 105.3 IP with Biloxi</em></p>
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		<title>Nathan For You</title>
		<link>http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/09/29/nathan-for-you/</link>
		<comments>http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/09/29/nathan-for-you/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 29 Sep 2017 11:51:04 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Colin Anderle]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Commentary]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Minor Leagues]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Player Analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[2017 Brewers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[2017 Brewers analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[2017 Brewers top prospects]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Brewers minor leagues]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Brewers prospect analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Brewers top prospects]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Nathan Kirby]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=10193</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[#Brewers pitching prospect Nathan Kirby, out two years with pair of elbow surgeries, is pitching in squad games in instructional ball. &#8212; Tom (@Haudricourt) September 26, 2017 His BP profile page might not reflect it yet, as it still sits vacant dating back to 2015, but one of the Brewers&#8217; most intriguing mothballed minor-leaguers is [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550"><p lang="en" dir="ltr"><a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Brewers?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Brewers</a> pitching prospect Nathan Kirby, out two years with pair of elbow surgeries, is pitching in squad games in instructional ball.</p>
<p>&mdash; Tom (@Haudricourt) <a href="https://twitter.com/Haudricourt/status/912808705690865665?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">September 26, 2017</a></p></blockquote>
<p><script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p>
<p>His BP profile page might not reflect it yet, as it still sits vacant dating back to 2015, but one of the Brewers&#8217; most intriguing mothballed minor-leaguers is finally getting his professional career off the ground.</p>
<p>Nathan Kirby was drafted in the supplemental first round of the 2015 amateur draft, 40th overall, by the Brewers out of the University of Virginia. At the time, it was considered a great value pick by the Brewers. Kirby had been a candidate to go in the top 10, or even the top 5, just months before the June draft. But inconsistent stuff and command, plus a strained lat that sidelined him for a time, plagued his senior year and he slipped to the supplemental round.</p>
<p>Just five appearances into his professional career, the Brewers shut Kirby down for Tommy John surgery, which is a fate that surprised few, given how he had regressed as a pitcher in 2015. Kirby missed all of 2016 rehabbing from the surgery, and this spring the team elected to keep him at extended spring training when the season started. But something still felt wrong.</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550"><p lang="en" dir="ltr"><a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Brewers?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Brewers</a> team doc William Raasch diagnosed Kirby with ulnar neuritis. So, he had ulnar nerve transposition surgery today by Raasch.</p>
<p>&mdash; Tom (@Haudricourt) <a href="https://twitter.com/Haudricourt/status/861995995818844160?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 9, 2017</a></p></blockquote>
<p><script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p>
<p>Thanks to this latest setback, Kirby is just now getting to a mound again in late September, and has lost two full years of development since getting drafted. Going forward, it&#8217;s impossible to say what to expect from the once-promising lefthander.</p>
<hr />
<p>In 2013, Kirby&#8217;s freshman year, he pitched primarily out of the bullpen for Virginia, making 22 relief appearances and 2 starts. His strikeout ratio aside, he didn&#8217;t really look the part of a future star that year, and three other freshman pitchers&#8211;Brandon Waddell, Josh Sborz, and Trey Oest&#8211;all saw more innings than Kirby. But that summer he pitched for the Keene Swamp Bats of the New England Collegiate League, won a spot in the Swamp Bats&#8217; starting rotation, and went 3-0 with a 1.67 ERA in seven starts and a relief appearance. Kirby&#8217;s 12.56 strikeouts per nine innings were enough to turn some heads, too, and the sophomore was able to ride the momentum into Virginia&#8217;s 2014 starting rotation.</p>
<p>That year, Kirby made his case for a future career in the Major Leagues. He struck out 112 batters in 113.1 innings, posted a sterling 2.07 ERA, and issued just 2.63 walks per nine innings. And in those 113-plus innings, he surrendered just one home run. On April 4, 2015, he recorded probably the best pitching performance of the 2015 season by a collegiate hurler: an 18-strikeout no-hitter against the Pitt Panthers.</p>
<p><iframe width="1170" height="658" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/kkZ1k6MpF1k?feature=oembed" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe></p>
<p>But just as quickly as Kirby had emerged, the hype was extinguished. Kirby&#8217;s walk rate spiked in 2015, from 2.62 to 4.5 BB/9, and he missed significant time with what was called a strained lat. Despite Virginia&#8217;s triumph at the College World Series, despite his polished surface stats, Kirby&#8217;s draft stock tumbled. When the Brewers found him available at 40 overall, it was too tantalizing to pass up.</p>
<hr />
<p>Looking back, it&#8217;s not hard to isolate the significant factors which led to Kirby&#8217;s arm problems. As a 19-year-old college freshman in 2013, he pitched just north of 75 innings combined between spring and summer. He pitched out of the bullpen for the Cavaliers in the spring, and averaged fewer than seven innings per start for the Swamp Bats in the summer. One year later, in the above docu-short about Kirby&#8217;s historic no-hitter, his coach looked at the camera straight-faced as can be and said &#8220;It&#8217;s just amazing that you throw a no-hitter, and you have 18 strikeouts, and <strong>only</strong> throw 120-some pitches.&#8221;</p>
<p>(I added the boldface myself to highlight one of the most irresponsible butcherings of the English language I have ever heard come from the mouth of an adult human. &#8220;Only&#8221; 120-some pitches. <em>He actually effing said that.</em> That&#8217;s like going in to the doctor for your physical, and he wants to test you for STDs, and you tell him that you don&#8217;t need to bother because you&#8217;ve &#8220;only&#8221; had 50 new sexual partners in the year since your last physical. These are not contexts in which use of the word &#8220;only&#8221; is correct. But I digress&#8230;)</p>
<p>In addition to this sudden and violent acceleration of workload, Kirby the college pitcher had the type of mechanics that are all but guaranteed to result in serious injury.</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Why isn&#39;t Nathan Kirby bouncing back from Tommy John surgery? Call it Terrible T. <a href="https://t.co/COKVjHTPOl">https://t.co/COKVjHTPOl</a> And <a href="https://twitter.com/mayoclinicsport?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@mayoclinicsport</a> teaches it. <a href="https://t.co/KUNOXHT6bo">pic.twitter.com/KUNOXHT6bo</a></p>
<p>&mdash; Chris O&#39;Leary (@thepainguy) <a href="https://twitter.com/thepainguy/status/867133236320882693?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 23, 2017</a></p></blockquote>
<p><script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p>
<p>That &#8220;Terrible T&#8221; that Chris O&#8217;Leary refers to in the tweet and the blog post it links to also appears in Tucker Blair&#8217;s <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/prospects/eyewitness_pit.php?reportid=225" target="_blank">BP Eyewitness Report</a> on Kirby, which was written on the one-year anniversary of his 18-strikeout no-hitter that &#8220;only&#8221; took 120-some pitches. Blair calls it an &#8220;exaggerated stab,&#8221; not a &#8220;terrible T,&#8221; but the straight-arm pause pictured above is what both writers are communicating through very different phrasing. As O&#8217;Leary, a former collegiate hitting instructor who counts several current and former professional players among his clients, concedes in his blog post, this technique is effective in creating rapid, short-term velocity gains for young pitchers, &#8220;but those velocity gains are achieved by overloading the arm. It&#8217;s like running a car engine past the redline. It works. For a while.&#8221;</p>
<p>By the time Blair was scouting Kirby, his arm was already the equivalent of a dying engine that idles loudly and struggles to generate the power it&#8217;s capable of. Blair harshly graded his command as &#8220;fringe&#8221; to &#8220;fringe-average&#8221; across all three of his pitches, and repeatedly hammered his mechanics throughout the report, even suggesting bluntly that they &#8220;are in much need of work.&#8221; But don&#8217;t take his word for it. You can see the problem yourself in this video shared by FanGraphs in the leadup to the &#8217;15 draft:</p>
<p><iframe width="1170" height="658" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/tTq5zKBPZAA?start=6&#038;feature=oembed" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe></p>
<p>If you&#8217;re wondering why I cued the video in at the six second mark, well, it&#8217;s because that point marks the first of eight consecutive pitches in 40 seconds from the exact same camera angle; perfect for watching a pitcher&#8217;s mechanics over and over. And wouldn&#8217;t you know it, on each and every pitch thrown by Kirby his pitching arm comes to a complete stop in that exaggerated, straightened position before whipping forward wildly. Rather than his throwing arm working in sync with his lower body, that exaggerated stretch back and extended pause cause his lower body to come out of the stretch ahead, and his arm has to work overtime to catch up. This is exactly what O&#8217;Leary calls &#8220;running the engine past the redline,&#8221; how a pitcher can overstrain his elbow and shoulder to bleed extra velocity out of his arm. It&#8217;s simply not sustainable long-term.</p>
<hr />
<p>That the Brewers are taking their time with Kirby, by keeping him in extended Spring Training early on this year, and now working him out patiently in the instructional league, is a good sign for the team, and its fans. He can still be a successful Major League pitcher. Fans would be foolish to expect that he will be a successful Major League pitcher, but he&#8217;s still just 23 and has proven himself capable of pitching at a high level. His fastball, slider, and curveball have all flashed plus at various points throughout his young career, and his changeup is capable of generating a lot of ugly, swinging strikes off of said fastball. Two years ago, before noting that his mechanics need refinement, Tucker Blair assessed in his conclusion that &#8220;there is a feel for pitching&#8221; in Kirby, and while you can teach proper mechanics, you can&#8217;t teach that. Put that whole package together and you&#8217;ve got a pitcher who could potentially help a Major League rotation someday. But it will be a far longer, and far less certain, journey to that destination than anyone foresaw in June of 2015.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>The Quiet Ascendance of Jon Perrin</title>
		<link>http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/09/26/the-quiet-ascendance-of-jon-perrin/</link>
		<comments>http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/09/26/the-quiet-ascendance-of-jon-perrin/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 26 Sep 2017 12:15:37 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Noah Nofz]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[2017 Brewers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[2017 Brewers analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[2017 Brewers prospects]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Brewers minor leagues]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Brewers top prospects]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jon Perrin]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=10169</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[In the fall of 2011, Jon Perrin arrived at Oklahoma State University as a lanky freshman with a mid-80s fastball and so-so command. He walked on to the  Cowboys’ squad that year and made five mediocre appearances, mostly out of the bullpen, resulting in a smoke-and-mirrors ERA of 4.05. But he had his foot in [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>In the fall of 2011, Jon Perrin arrived at Oklahoma State University as a lanky freshman with a mid-80s fastball and so-so command. He walked on to the  Cowboys’ squad that year and made five mediocre appearances, mostly out of the bullpen, resulting in a smoke-and-mirrors ERA of 4.05. But he had his foot in the door, and returned for his sophomore year a little stronger and a little smarter. He started five games that year, with 18 additional appearances from the ‘pen, and struck out 41 batters over 47.3 innings against just 11 walks.</p>
<p>His junior season was a revelation. Perrin, now pumping his fastball over the plate in the low-90s, covered 102 innings with a 2.38 ERA, twirling a pair of complete-game shutouts among his 13 starts. His command came and went to the tune of 2.5 walks per nine, but he did enough that year to catch the eye of the Detroit Tigers, who selected him the 33rd round of the 2014 MLB Draft. For whatever reason, maybe because his performance deserved a higher selection, maybe because he was determined to finish his education, he went back to school in 2015.</p>
<p>Senior year was something of a step back. Perrin started 16 games and covered 84.3 innings, but his walk rate ballooned to 3.31 per nine innings. The flagging command may have resulted in a get-it-over-fastball dependency. Perrin surrendered seven home runs on the year, after allowing only two in his collegiate career to that point. Still, he’d flashed enough potential for his draft stock to improve; the Brewers gobbled him up in the 27th round and quickly sent him to Arizona to begin his professional career.</p>
<p>He made short work of the Arizona League, flummoxing hitters one and a half years his junior over ten dominant innings. Perrin moved up to Appleton and out-pitched his peripherals for the rest of the season, finishing with just shy of 40 innings and walking only four batters.</p>
<table width="572">
<thead>
<tr>
<td width="58">Year</td>
<td width="159">Team</td>
<td width="50">IP</td>
<td width="62">ERA</td>
<td width="93">DRA</td>
<td width="82">BB9</td>
<td width="68">K9</td>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="58"><strong>2015</strong></td>
<td width="159">AZL Brewers (Rk)</td>
<td width="50">10.0</td>
<td width="62">0.90</td>
<td width="93">3.47</td>
<td width="82">2.7</td>
<td width="68">7.2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="58"><strong>2015</strong></td>
<td width="159">Wisconsin (A-)</td>
<td width="50">39.7</td>
<td width="62">4.31</td>
<td width="93">2.44</td>
<td width="82">0.9</td>
<td width="68">7.7</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>These results were the first indications that Perrin might be more than a run-of-the-mill 27th-rounder. Still, Perrin was far from the first advanced college arm to carve his way through the Midwest League. He was sent back to Appleton to start 2016, and lay waste to the league before a mid-season bump to Brevard County, which, it should be noted, scarcely slowed him down. He earned a bump to Class-AA at season’s end, and could have made a strong candidate for Minor League Pitcher of the Year, were it not for what Brandon Woodruff was up to in Biloxi.</p>
<table width="572">
<thead>
<tr>
<td width="58">Year</td>
<td width="159">Team</td>
<td width="50">IP</td>
<td width="62">ERA</td>
<td width="93">DRA</td>
<td width="82">BB9</td>
<td width="68">K9</td>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="58"><strong>2016</strong></td>
<td width="159">Wisconsin (A-)</td>
<td width="50">36.0</td>
<td width="62">2.50</td>
<td width="93">1.21</td>
<td width="82">0.3</td>
<td width="68">11.8</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="58"><strong>2016</strong></td>
<td width="159">Brevard County (A+)</td>
<td width="50">110.7</td>
<td width="62">2.60</td>
<td width="93">2.63</td>
<td width="82">1.5</td>
<td width="68">7.7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="58"><strong>2016</strong></td>
<td width="159">Biloxi (AA)</td>
<td width="50">3.3</td>
<td width="62">24.30</td>
<td width="93">4.77</td>
<td width="82">8.1</td>
<td width="68">5.4</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>2017 held a stiffer test. Perrin’s chief weapon is a fastball that tops out in the low-90s. The pitch has some natural sink, but Perrin relies primarily on deception. Hitters have a tough time reading pitches out of his hand, and he hides the ball well with his 3/4 delivery. Most importantly, he can spot the fastball throughout the strike zone.</p>
<p>He pairs that pitch with a slider that sits in the low to mid-80s and darts into or out of the strike zone for a share of whiffs. His changeup is coming along, too, and dives towards the dirt when he’s got it working. It, too, sits in the low to mid-80s, which renders his secondary offerings vulnerable when they’re not bending the way they should—ideally, one would like to see a little more separation among his velocities.</p>
<p>Perrin spent the entire 2017 season pitching for the Biloxi Shuckers, though he missed a month with a back injury in the middle of the season. AA is the level at which it become easier to distinguish wheat from chaff. The strike zone is a bit tighter, the hitters are a bit smarter, and many a fringe pitcher has seen his ascent to the big leagues slowed by advanced offenses that are better equipped to punish mistakes. But when Perrin took the mound for the Shuckers, he shone; for example, compare his 2.62 DRA to the 2.30 mark posted by the much-hyped Corbin Burnes.</p>
<table width="572">
<thead>
<tr>
<td width="58">Year</td>
<td width="159">Team</td>
<td width="50">IP</td>
<td width="62">ERA</td>
<td width="93">DRA</td>
<td width="82">BB9</td>
<td width="68">K9</td>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="58"><strong>2017</strong></td>
<td width="159">Biloxi (AA)</td>
<td width="50">105.3</td>
<td width="62">2.91</td>
<td width="93">2.62</td>
<td width="82">1.8</td>
<td width="68">7.8</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>What’s most remarkable about Perrin’s ascent through the minor leagues is the remarkable consistency he’s shown at each level. If you strip away the small samples immediately before or after a promotion and focus on one level per year—low-A ball in 2015, A+ in 2016, and AA in 2017, his numbers are eerily similar.</p>
<table width="572">
<thead>
<tr>
<td width="58">Year</td>
<td width="159">Team</td>
<td width="50">IP</td>
<td width="62">ERA</td>
<td width="93">DRA</td>
<td width="82">BB9</td>
<td width="68">K9</td>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="58"><strong>2015</strong></td>
<td width="159">Wisconsin (A-)</td>
<td width="50">39.7</td>
<td width="62">4.31</td>
<td width="93">2.44</td>
<td width="82">0.9</td>
<td width="68">7.7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="58"><strong>2016</strong></td>
<td width="159">Brevard County (A+)</td>
<td width="50">110.7</td>
<td width="62">2.60</td>
<td width="93">2.63</td>
<td width="82">1.5</td>
<td width="68">7.7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="58"><strong>2017</strong></td>
<td width="159">Biloxi (AA)</td>
<td width="50">105.3</td>
<td width="62">2.91</td>
<td width="93">2.62</td>
<td width="82">1.8</td>
<td width="68">7.8</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>The fact that Perrin is likely ticketed to Colorado Springs next season could change that piece of symmetry. Then again, Perrin has made a habit of beating expectations. It’s not a stretch to imagine the former 27th-round pick giving Milwaukee useful bullpen innings or spot starts as soon as the end of next year. In fact, it’s a bit of a shame that his development hadn’t started one year sooner. With his 6’5” frame and plausible role as a future innings-eater, he’s exactly the kind of get-the-job-done fifth starter the Brewers could use <em>right now</em>.</p>
<p>Most minor league fans <a href="http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/05/20/judging-jon-perrin/">know the story of Perrin’s law school ambitions</a>. He famously told reporters that he’d happily walk away from baseball if he was accepted at Harvard Law, his preferred school. His Twitter bio pegs him as a “future lawyer,” with baseball only mentioned insofar as his role as a “Milwaukee Brewers part time seasonal apprentice.” But Perrin is inching his way closer to big-league ready, and looks more and more like a viable major league arm. I hope he gets that law degree from Harvard. But I’d be glad if he waited a few years before enrolling.</p>
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