What is interesting to note is that as tough as the names look on paper for the Brewers’ upcoming schedule, what with the champion of the trade deadline Dodgers, ghosts of contenders past in San Francisco, surging Rockies, and payroll-heavy Nationals, is that it does not look that difficult when all is said and done. Assessing teams by their underlying production with True Average (TAv) for offense and Deserved Run Average (DRA) for pitching, the Milwaukee roster acquits itself quite well.

In terms of pitching (by DRA), the Brewers are better than each of their upcoming opponents except for the Dodgers and Nationals. Ironically, as rough as the Brewers bats have performed all season in terms of park-adjusted Runs Scored, Milwaukee is better than each upcoming opponent except for the Dodgers (according to TAv). Really, the truest, toughest task of the next 20 games is facing Los Angeles for seven of them. Otherwise, it’s a chance for the Brewers to show their respective strengths, which includes the their exceptional defense, the third most efficient fielding unit in baseball (now tied with Houston and Oakland).

The trap in this sequence of games appears to be the relative offensive strength of each opposing club save for the Dodgers. While Milwaukee combines a decent rotation and excellent bullpen (in terms of DRA), both of these elements of the club “play up” thanks to the fielding performance; all this results in a ball club that has already prevented approximately 59 runs. This is incredible; this is nearly as many runs as the club prevented in all of 2017, which was still good for fifth best in the National League. That excellent pitching and fielding unit will take on what ostensibly amounts to four below average offenses over the next 20 games; these below average assessments can certainly be verified by Runs Scored, and further backed up by TAv in nearly every case (the Nationals might be the outlier here). This is the test that these Brewers were made for.

What will be much more tricky, of course, is the Brewers offense improving against each of the forthcoming pitching staffs with the exception of San Diego. Milwaukee’s offense looks bad overall, but the run production did improve during May and June, and the July bats are still better than the March/April production. Worse yet, the club is dealing with a series of injuries and tricky promotion decisions with Orlando Arcia and Domingo Santana, who have both recently made adjustments at Triple-A Colorado Springs. The best story at the deadline would be the lack of a need for a headline-grabbing trade thanks to the reinstatement of Arcia and Santana, but recent comments by Stearns suggest that promotions may not be the immediate course of events. Thus, the Brewers may be caused to defeat the Dodgers by wringing every ounce of production possible out of Tyler Saladino, Brad Miller, and Nate Orf in the middle infield, which is an unsavory equation at best; on the bright side, Brett Phillips or Keon Broxton could get another chance to shine in the outfield.

The following table outlines the overall race in the National League, for this installment featuring each team’s TAv, DRA, and park-adjusted run differential. “True Pace” assesses each club’s expected record according to their run differential, while “True .500″ assesses each club’s expected win total if they went .500 on top of their existing run differential.

When all the dust has settled, answering these questions of attrition is what contending clubs accomplish. So, in some sense the Brewers truly will have a chance to establish their position in the coming sprint to the playoffs. What would be a mistake is to assume that this team is starting this series of games with inferior talent, a roster that somehow makes them less than capable of facing these competitive squads. Thus begins the race: Go Brewers!

Photo Credit: Benny Sieu, USA Today Sports Images

After the 2020 season, franchise cornerstone Ryan Braun will shift from a guaranteed contract to a $4.0 million buyout of a mutual option. But, even if Braun leaves the team for 2021, the club is hardly at an end of an era. Seventeen players with likely roles for the 2018 club remain under contract as the clock strikes 2021:

Granted, some of these players might not be expected to stick with the club for this extended period of time. There are always trades, in the first place, which could knock some of these players off this list. Additionally, role depreciation could also knock others off the roster (here Jesus Aguilar, Jett Bandy, Keon Broxton, and Junior Guerra figure most prominently). Someone’s career could always derail in an unexpected way, as well, be it via injury or mechanical issues. But the basic point is that if the majority of these players have solidified MLB roles for 2018, they also build an outline for a 2021 club.

Imagine the Brewers pick up Ryan Braun’s option for 2021:

It’s easy to dream on prospects reaching the MLB and filling out this roster, especially given David Stearns’s recent comment that the club’s pitching depth is one reason the club soured on free agency options. But, even the development of prospects is not the point here; the point is that the last two offseasons have helped to open a path for a 2017-2018 offseason that improves the club for the short- and long-terms.

What is new about this? The current window opening for the Brewers is much more similar to the 1978-1982 Brewers than the most recent Brewers contender. In 2008, for example, the Brewers featured a well-controlled core of prime bats without much of a pitching staff structure extending beyond Yovani Gallardo. The 2011 and 2014 Brewers showcased different looks, contending as various contractual windows closed for the team. Once again, there was never enough congruence between the batting and pitching cores. This is what is new about the 2018 Brewers: they exhibit a core club that can compete in a mediocre National League, while also building for the future with an extensive window. Granted, there will be injuries, trades, and depreciation to knock out some of this depth, but the overall look of the club is one that is completely new to the Brewers.

If fans are angry about the starting pitching, perhaps they can be excused, for watching a Brewers club whose strength is pitching instead of batting (this is new territory for the organization!); if fans are angry about the lack of impact moves after acquiring Cain and Yelich, perhaps they can be excused, for watching a Brewers club that is ready to open a true three year window (and likely five year window) is also new territory. 2018 is a new frontier for the organization.