The first thing that stands out about the 22-year-old Supak is his sheer physical presence. At 6’5” and 235 pounds, he cuts a classic, old-school silhouette on the mound. The guy looks like a throwback workhorse, capable of soaking up 200 decent innings with a rubbery arm and a smooth, repeatable delivery. It’s a great starting point for a pitching prospect.

What may hold Supak back from becoming a rotation mainstay is the quality of his raw stuff, which is largely average. Even at the time of his trade three years ago, Supak’s frame was more or less maxed out. Accordingly, the big Texan’s fastball velocity hasn’t really budged as he’s grown older; Supak still operates right around 90 or 91 mph, with the ability to reach back on occasion and crank it up to 94. It’s a decent pitch, as fastballs go, but hardly an elite offering. Supak has, however, taken some steps forward with his secondaries. What was once a fringe-y curveball has turned into a legitimate weapon; it now profiles as no worse than average, with good downward break and great velocity separation off of his heater (the curve spins in at 75-78 mph). His changeup, too, has been much improved over the last several years, traveling from non-existent all the way up to fringe-average. It should, at worst, become a “show-me” pitch in the majors, which may be just enough to allow Supak to stick in a starting rotation. At best, it could become average; it’s a little firm at the moment, but it comes in right around 85 mph and is at least capable of disrupting a hitter’s timing.

Supak has always shown good command of his pitches, leading to some suspicion that the solid results he produced in the low minors had more to do with the inexperience of his opponents than his own prowess on the mound. (Through A-ball, pitchers with good command and middling stuff routinely fudge their way through to impressive stat lines; once they reach the upper minors, more advanced hitters start to hit back.) That Supak was able to maintain his effectiveness as a 22-year-old getting his first taste of Double-A last season lends some optimism to his outlook.

His performance in the Southern League becomes even more impressive when it’s examined in halves. Supak made 16 starts for the Shuckers last year after his late-May promotion, with a nice cumulative ERA of 2.91. But in the first eight of those starts, he allowed 23 earned runs in 39.7 innings for a 5.22 ERA. Opposing batters lit him up for a .720 OPS. Wins don’t matter, but Supak was also winless in six decisions during that span.

The next eight starts were a little different. From July 16 through the end of the season, Supak pitched 47.0 innings and allowed a measly five earned runs. Opposing batters struggled to an anemic .527 OPS. His ERA during that time was 0.96, and he won each of the six decisions into which his performance factored.

If that line in the sand seems a little too convenient to be taken seriously, well, sure. We’re talking about a pretty small sample here, for one. I wasn’t present at any of Supak’s starts, so I’m unable to comment on how his stuff, or his demeanor, or the defense behind him, looked during that rough first taste of Double-A. For better or worse, I’m relying on the numbers and some scant video, neither of which always paints the full picture. (Exhibit A: Supak’s swinging strike percent actually edged downwards during his dominant late-season stretch.) Even so, those sorts of stats tend to jump off the page.

Add them all up, and we’re left with this: 25 games started and a career-high 137.7 innings pitched across two levels in 2018. 123 strikeouts, 44 walks, and only six home runs allowed. A cumulative ERA of 2.48, including his time in Carolina. DRA, it must be noted, is a little more measured in assessing Supak’s 2018 performance, pegging him as a league-average pitcher for the Mudcats, where his 4.69 Deserved Run Average stands in contrast to a glittering 1.76 ERA and his 99.7 DRA- is hardly exciting (a 100 DRA- is league and park average, and the lower the number, the better). But DRA also acknowledges that Supak turned it on after his promotion, finishing with a 3.73 DRA and a tidy 79.2 DRA- in Biloxi. That kind of performance is worth protecting.

Supak will start the 2019 in the minors, perhaps even back in Biloxi. But his above-average command and fastball-curveball combo make him a solid candidate to join the bullpen shuttle to the big leagues as early as mid-season. If 2018 taught us anything, it’s that the Brewers know how to make good use of their players with option years, rotating them between Triple-A and Milwaukee as needed.

The bullpen may well be Supak’s longterm home, too. If he performs well next year, he’ll have a chance to claim a spot as a middle-reliever or swingman for the foreseeable future. His stuff may also tick up a notch or two; instead of cresting at 94 mph, like he does as a starter, that number may become more of a baseline in relief.

There’s also a chance that Supak develops into an effective back-end starter, of the kind that the Brewers have had so much success with lately. He’s got that classic innings-eater frame, but limiting him to two trips through the batting order could do wonders for his ability to prevent runs. What’s more valuable: 200 innings with a 4.50 ERA, or 150 innings with a 3.80 ERA?

Supak has flown under the radar a bit in recent years. He’s pitched well, but not spectacularly; his ascent has been slower and less noticeable than those of 2016 Brandon Woodruff, 2017 Corbin Burnes, and even 2018 Zack Brown. But it has been steady. Now, he’s knocking at the door. Add his name alongside those of Woodruff, Burnes, Brown, Peralta, and others, and it’s clearer than ever that it’s time to retire the years-old narrative that the Brewers can’t develop good arms. Supak and his peers say otherwise.

Milwaukee would not be in the position that they are without Yelich, who was a stud for the Miami Marlins before fashioning himself into a bonafide superstar during the 2018 campaign. His .326 batting average /.402 on-base percentage /.598 slugging percentage slash line earned him the National League batting title (Milwaukee’s first ever) and he was this close to the first NL Triple Crown since 1937, tallying 36 home runs and 110 runs batted in (Yelich finished behind Nolan Arenado and Trevor Story in home runs, and Javier Baez for runs batted in). His superlative performance yielded a .356 True Average (TAv) and 7.7 Wins Above Replacement Player (WARP) in his age-26 season, and he’s become the odds-on favorite to capture the league’s Most Valuable Player award.

Thinking back to January 25th, 2018, not everyone was thrilled when Slingin’ David Stearns signed off on the trade that sent four prospects to the Little Havana neighborhood in Miami. At the time, he gave up Milwaukee’s number one, three, and six prospects (according to Baseball Prospectus) along with a pitcher who Stearns himself had called one of his favorite arms in the organization. So as we bask in the glow of the first playoff victory our local club has produced in seven long years, let’s take a moment to check in on the guys that Stearns have up to help get us here:

OF Lewis Brinson
For most fans, Brinson was the player that stung most to lose. He was considered top-25 talent league wide, a potential five-tool center fielder who offered a few glimpses of his potential during a brief MLB trial in 2017. Miami handed Brinson a regular role at the big league level to begin the year, and he responded by putting together one of the least productive campaigns of any player in 2018. Brinson hit only .199/.240/.338 in 109 games and 406 plate appearances, good for an anemic TAv of .220. He did pop 11 long balls (including a mult-homer game against Milwaukee) and tallied 3.0 FRAA, but on the whole he was valued as a sub-replacement level player, tallying -0.3 WARP.

OF Monte Harrison
After a breakout season in 2017 between Appleton and Carolina, Miami tasked Harrison with one of the toughest challenges a minor leaguer will face: the jump from Class-A Advanced to Double-A. His slash line for Jacksonville of the Southern League wasn’t too bad at .240/.316/.399, which translated to a better-than-average .272 TAv on the pitcher-friendly circuit. Harrison again showed off his tantalizing power/speed combination, swiping 28 bases to go along with 19 dingers in 583 plate appearances. But the outfielder was also by far the league leader in strikeouts, whiffing an astonishing 215 times, or 37 percent of his trips to bat.

2B Isan Diaz
Like Harrison, Isan Diaz was assigned to Double-A Jacksonville to begin his time in the Marlins organization after finishing 2017 in Class-A Advanced. Diaz had a fair amount more success in the Southern League, however, producing a nifty .245/.365/.418 slash with 10 homers and 10 steals for a .294 TAv. After 83 games he earned a promotion to Triple-A New Orleans, and his numbers cratered at the highest level of the minors. In 36 games and 155 plate appearances, Diaz could manage only a .204/.281/.358 slash (.217 TAv). Strikeouts remain a concern for the infielder as well, as he whiffed a total of 140 times in 119 games between the two affiliates.

RHP Jordan Yamamoto
Yamamoto was stung by the injury bug this season, not taking the mound until late May and then missing another month of action between July and August. As a result, the righty made only 13 appearances and tossed 68 and 2/3 innings on the year, split between rookie ball, Class-A Advanced, and Double-A. In those innings, however, he put together a sparkling 1.68 ERA. Batters hit only .176 against the Hawaiian right-hander, and he struck out 84 (11.14 K/9) versus just 14 walks (1.83 BB/9). The profile is still more smarts and guile than it is pure stuff, leading to questions about how his game will play at the highest levels. Of the four prospects in the deal, though, Yamamoto is the only one who surely improved his stock heading into 2019, and the Baseball Prospectus team cited his ability to change speeds as one reason for rising prospect stock.

So, given these reports, have you been talked into a do-over on the trade? 

The Brewers are sending the customary eight delegates to the Fall League this year, mixing well-known names with a few under-the-radar selections. Most fans are familiar with top prospect Keston Hiura, former first-round pick Trent Grisham, and young catcher Mario Feliciano. Bubba Derby, many will remember, was part of the trade that sent Khris Davis to Oakland. That quartet  headlines the group of prospects on their way to Arizona, where they’ll be joined by relievers Miguel Sanchez and John Olczak, both of whom have been covered on the site in recent weeks, and Daniel Brown. That leaves corner utility player Weston Wilson as the eighth man in.

Wilson enjoyed a nice campaign with the bat this year, producing a combined 270 batting average /.326 on-base percentage /.434 slugging percentage between two levels. The majority of that damage came in the Carolina League, where he played 105 games as a Mudcat and hit .274/.330/.446 for a healthy True Average (TAv) of .273 before a late-season bump to Biloxi. That continues something of a trend for Wilson, who split the 2017 season between Wisconsin and Carolina, hitting quite well at the former and scuffling some upon his promotion. The optimist’s view here is that Wilson makes adjustments as he develops, enduring some early struggles only to emerge a stronger, smarter ballplayer the following year. Someone less inclined to rose-colored glasses may point out that Wilson, a 16th round draftee out of Clemson in 2016, has always started the year a little old for his level, and simply performed in the low minors much as a decent college hitter should. Neither is a bad thing, really. But as a point of comparison, bear in mind that Wilson was drafted the same year as Ronnie Gideon, and signed for a similar bonus. Both hitters destroyed Rookie League ball in 2016, but their paths diverged after that: Wilson hit well for the Timber Rattlers, conquered the Mudcats, and has advanced to Double-A; Gideon struggled in Appleton for a full year, failed to do much for Carolina, and was released mid-season. Wilson may not be a highly-touted prospect, but he is separating himself from his peers in that particular cohort.

Something else to endear Wilson to the Milwaukee faithful: He’s capable of playing all over the field. Wilson started games at first, second, third base, and shortstop, as well as in left and right field this year, racking up most of his innings at first, third, and in left. The eye test reveals at least an average defender; Baseball Prospectus sees his defense as a potential plus. Wilson accumulated 7.3 Fielding Runs Above Average (FRAA) in the minors this year, a strong mark for any player. That’s a bit out of tune with his earlier defensive value (1.8 FRAA in 2017, -3.1 FRAA in 2016), but certainly enough to suggest a competent fielder. As positional labels begin to lose meaning across the league, Wilson’s comfort with moving around the diamond could become a true asset.

Monitoring Wilson’s development in Arizona and beyond should provide plenty of interest. His 2018 season was carried by a monster month of July, wherein he hit .436/.481/.681 across 27 games and 106 red-hot plate appearances. That came after a putrid June which saw him bat .176/.220/.253 in a similar amount of playing time. Ideally, he’d smooth over those kinds of extreme streaks in the future. He’ll also have to prove that he’s capable of handling advanced pitching at the Double-A and Triple-A levels. Happily, there’s some indication that he’s already begun that journey. Though he finished the regular season hitting .239/.286/.326 (.238 TAv) in a dozen games for the Shuckers, he caught fire in the postseason, going 10-for-27 with a pair of doubles for a .370/.452/.444 line in eight games. Fold that into his regular season work, and he hit .288/.342/.370 wearing a Shuckers uniform. Not shabby for a super-utility sort.

Prior to 2018, Wilson was best known as the prospect who proposed to his girlfriend after she threw out a ceremonial first pitch (incidentally, the video clip in that link suggests that Wilson could bring considerable value as a pitch framer, should he ever encounter the tools of ignorance). Another season like his last could change that in a hurry, especially if he shows well in Arizona next month. Should Wilson continue to develop as he has, he could be manning the diamond Hernán Pérez-style with fellow 2018 Shucker (and partner-in-rhyme) Keston Hiura for years of competitive Brewers baseball to come. Don’t be surprised if you start to see a #FreeWestonWilson campaign start to crop up next year or the year after, and be sure to check out Wilson this fall if you have a chance.

Martinez is very big (6’6”, 225 pounds), very strong, and very raw at the plate, as befits a 19-year-old. (He’s also trilingual, which doesn’t really count for anything but is pretty cool.) He acquitted himself well in Dominican ball last year, tallying 29 hits in 113 at-bats, including thirteen for extra bases. Across 148 plate appearances, he struck out 31 times and drew 30 walks, good for a .326 True Average (TAv). Clearly in need of a greater challenge, Martinez was brought stateside and scuffled, as he continues to do this year. In the DSL, he struck out in 20.9 percent of his plate appearances; through Saturday, this year he’s whiffing at a 33.9 percent clip. The walk rate has fallen from 20.1 percent to a still solid 11.6 percent. His isolated power has plummeted from .177 all the way down to .049. For all his strength, Martinez has yet to hit a home run in a game on U.S. soil.

That’s only a matter of time, though. Martinez possesses easy 70-grade raw power (along with a plus throwing arm) with a chance to add even more strength as he matures. He hits from the left side, displaying an open stance with loud hands. He’ll wave the bat back and forth as the pitcher winds up before going into a crouch and unleashing a big leg kick. When he plants his right foot, the stance closes up, and he lets rip with a powerful swing. Batting practice home runs are the easiest home runs to hit. Even so, this kind of power is eye-opening:

The general profile calls to mind a pair of other long-developing prospects to grace the Milwaukee system in recent years: Monte Harrison and Demi Orimoloye. Martinez is even taller than those two, and has a chance to wind up with the most raw power (albeit without as much speed). Still a teenager, he’s also just as unrefined as were Harrison and Orimoloye when they were drafted. In other words, patience will be key when evaluating Martinez’s development over the next several seasons. Harrison battled through a pair of injury-filled years before his 2017 breakout (he’s swatted 18 home runs in Double-A this year, incidentally, but is also closing in on 200 strikeouts). Likewise, it wasn’t until this season that Orimoloye tasted his first real success outside of rookie ball (.301 TAv in the Arizona League in 2015; .278 TAv across 245 plate appearances earlier this year in Appleton). If any of these players make a significant impact at the major league level, it won’t be for another several years.

Announced as an outfielder and first baseman, the Brewers have Martinez playing first base exclusively in Arizona, which is a little perplexing considering his strong arm (Martinez was once clocked at 93 mph on the mound). Scouting reports from the time of his signing cited shaky footwork in the outfield; perhaps he’ll get more looks in the grass down the line, or perhaps he’ll continue to add mass to his frame and stay firmly planted in the infield. In either case, the bat will be his carrying tool, and it has a long way to go (particularly if he stays at the bottom of the defensive spectrum). If Martinez has a higher ceiling than most, it follows that his journey towards that ceiling will take plenty of time.

There’s some thoroughly unscientific evidence to suggest that he may get there: Martinez’s father, Ernesto Martinez, Sr., played eight seasons in the Cuban National Series for the Sabuesos de Holguín, winning the championship and batting .284/.398/.445 in 2002. Then he moved to France, where he’s played 11 seasons for the Templiers de Sénart in the French Division Élite. 44 years old, he was still catching at the start of the year, evidently content to keep playing until he no longer can.

Bloodlines can be overblown in baseball; for every Vlad Jr., there’s a Koby Clemens. But they’re not nothing (See: Griffey, Bonds, Ripken, etc.). Martinez Jr. grew up around the game. Brewers scouts raved about his baseball IQ when he signed. He dominated a 15U World Tournament in 2014, hitting .436 and smacking two doubles in the championship game (he helped Cuba beat Brice Turang and Team USA). A few years later, both Ernestos represented France during their qualifying run for the 2017 World Baseball Classic (dad hit well, but France fell short of qualifying; “Ernestico” mostly just warmed the bench). Keep an eye on his development over the next few years. With loud tools and a strong pedigree, he’s an easy kid to dream on.

Yesterday at the lowest rung of the minor league ladder in the Dominican Summer League (DSL), however, the DSL Brewers no-hit the DSL Rangers (2) behind stellar work from starter Alexis Ramirez and reliever Jose Alberro. The 19 year old Ramirez tossed seven frames while allowing only two walks and striking out six before Alberro came on to close out the contest, tossing two clean innings with a couple of strikeouts. The Brewers won, 5-0, with most of the offense coming thanks to Oswel Leones, who hit a homer and had three RBI in the game.

That game was just one of a half-dozen no-hitters that the Brewers have recorded organization-wide since the start of this decade. Prior to yesterday’s game in the Dominican, the last no-no in the org was just last summer at Double-A Biloxi. The Shuckers had a doubleheader on August 14th, 2017, against the Tennessee Smokies, thanks to a postponed game the day before due to rain. MiLB doubleheaders feature two scheduled seven-inning games, so Hiram Burgos got the start in the seven-inning affair and started by tossing two clean innings with a couple of punchouts. Then came Forrest Snow, who was awarded the winning decision after pitching innings three through five, allowing one walk and four whiffs. Lefty hitting-convert Nick Ramirez threw the sixth while allowing a walk, and Jorge Lopez worked a clean seventh to finish up the no-no and record his fifth save of the year. The Shuckers won, 1-0, thanks to a first inning dinger by Troy Stokes.

Before the Biloxi no-hitter, you have to go all the way back to 2012 to find the previous one. The team that would eventually move to Biloxi, the Huntsville Stars, faced off against the Chattanooga Lookouts on August 4th. A familiar name got the start for Huntsville that night: Jimmy Nelson, worked the first four innings with four walks and four strikeouts, but no hits. Then came reliever Dan Merklinger, who was pitching in his final professional season. He walked four batters and allowed a run during his 2/3 of an inning before getting bailed out by La Crosse native R.J. Seidel. Seidel tossed an inning and a third while issuing two more free passes and was credited with the winning decision. Righty Darren Byrd worked two scoreless innings and then future big leaguer Brandon Kintzler came on for the save. Huntsville hurlers issued 11 walks in the contest but zero hits, and won 3-1 on a three-run homer by Brock Kjeldgaard in the third inning.

That wasn’t the only no-hitter the org registered in 2012. On May 4th, the Class-A Wisconsin Timber Rattlers defeated the Clinton LumberKings 5-0 while keeping their opponents out of the hit column. Chad Thompson, a 27th-round pick in 2011, got the start in that game and threw the first five innings with three walks and six punchouts. He would go on to miss all of 2013 with injury and was out of baseball after the 2014 season. His tandem partner, Mark Williams, came in to finish the context with four scoreless frames while walking one and striking out three. A former undrafted free agent, Williams hung around affiliated ball until 2015 but never made it past Double-A. 2010 24th-rounder Gregory Hopkins had the big hit, a three-run homer in the first inning, to power Wisconsin’s offense in the no-hit victory. He hung around the org until 2014 before playing a year in independent ball and hanging up the spikes.

We head back to the DSL to remember Juan Francisco’s seven-inning “gem” on August 15th, 2011. The DSL Brewers defeated the DSL Mariners by a score of 2-1, with Francisco tossing a complete game no-no. Francisco walked six batters while striking out only two during the highlight of his brief career, which lasted from 2010-12 and never got higher than the Dominican Summer League. Raul Mondesi, Jr. (the other one) and Jose Pena recorded the Brewers’ two runs batted in during the game, while a young Orlando Arcia took an 0-for-3.

The franchise’s first no-hitter of the decade took place on August 24th, 2010, in a Midwest League game between the Timber Rattlers and the Cedar Rapids Kernels. Jake Odorizzi got the start for Wisconsin and dominated, going eight innings with ten strikeouts versus only one walk. He was relieved by Adrian Rosario, who completed the no-no by throwing a scoreless ninth, walking one and fanning two. Both pitchers were dealt not long after. Odorizzi was sent to Kansas City in the famed Greinke deal and is currently enjoying a solid big league career. Rosario was a part of the 2011 K-Rod trade, and his career flamed out in the Mets’ organization in 2013. But both pitchers brought their best stuff that night, and thanks to RBI hits by D’Vontrey Richardson, Kentrail Davis, and Joey Paciorek, the T-Rats emerged victorious by a score of 3-0.

So there you have it, the six minor league no-hitters that the Milwaukee Brewers can claim since the start of 2010. Hopefully some of that good fortune will shine on the big league team soon, and help spawn the future broadcasting career of whatever backup catcher who may wind up calling pitches behind the plate for Milwaukee’s next MLB n0-no.

Perez is the very definition of a “flyer.” He will turn 21 later this year and has spent the last two years pitching in the Dominican Summer League, the lowest rung of the minor league baseball ladder and a circuit typically populated by teenagers. He’s got some nice surface stats this year (2.01 Earned Run Average (ERA) and 10.5 strike outs per nine innings in 40.3 IP) but doesn’t possess impressive raw stuff. The fastball from Perez sits only in the 88-91 MPH range and he’ll mix in a cutter, curve, and changeup. For Chicago, the true prize in the deal is Medeiros, Milwaukee’s first-round pick at #12 overall in 2014.

Medeiros was a divisive prospect going back to the day he was drafted, with many scouts sticking the “future reliever” label on him right away. But getting pegged as a bullpen arm isn’t the denigration that it used to be given the way that baseball has changed and emphasized the importance of a good relief corps. It’s been an up-and-down developmental road for the southpaw, with the lowest point coming in 2016 when he walked nearly as many batters (63) as he struck out (64) in 23 appearances for Class-A Advanced Brevard County. He’s bounced back well statistically since then, however, and this season he produced a 3.14 ERA with 107 punchouts against 45 walks in 103.3 innings for Double-A Biloxi before being dealt.

The Brewers stayed steadfast in developing Medeiros as a starter despite the obvious issues with his profile. These are commonly noted: the funky arm slot and high-effort delivery, the below-average command, the platoon issues, and the lack of a third pitch to play off his fastball/slider combination. The White Sox are expected to keep him in a similar capacity for the time being, but the scouting consensus continues to form around a relief role. Following the trade announcement, Eric Longenhagen of Fangraphs tweeted out that Medeiros “should be premium lefty bullpen weapon at maturity.”

For a reliever of Soria’s ilk (2.56 ERA, 45 DRA-(!), 49:10 strike outs to walks in 38.7 IP) under control for potentially 1.5 seasons, the trade price of Medeiros seems fair. Sure, the lefty’s skill-set is quite intriguing, and if you squint just right, you can see a Hader-esque upside in a fireman role. But Medeiros isn’t the flamethrower that he once was; his stuff has backed up a bit since high school and he’s now closer to the 88-93 MPH range with his heater than the mid-90’s fire he once possessed. He didn’t even garner a mention in Baseball Prospectus’ top Brewers prospect list at the beginning of the year, nor did his improved performance push him into the midseason update of Baseball America’s top prospect list for Milwaukee. MLB Pipeline had him at #13 in Milwaukee’s system before the trade with an Overall Future Potential (OFP) of 45, and he now slots in at #19 overall among Chicago’s farmhands. The Brewers would have faced a difficult decision about whether or not to protect Medeiros from the Rule 5 Draft (among a host of other notable prospects) this winter, and now that will be the White Sox problem.

The only real complaint I saw regarding this deal was a fan lamenting that “another first-rounder didn’t pan out.” In this case, though, that’s the wrong way to think about it. Yes, the Brewers have had some notable whiffs at the top of the draft, such as Eric Arnett, Jed Bradley, Victor Roache, and so on. But Medeiros was drafted at 12th overall, signed and then developed to the point where he became a desirable commodity for other franchises. His future potential was leveraged into present production in the form of Joakim Soria to better fit with Milwaukee’s current competitive window. There is more to valuing a prospect than the Wins Above Replacement that he produces on the field for the franchise that drafts/signs him, and I would argue that using Medeiros as a chip to bring in a reliever performing at an elite level for the rest of this year and possibly next season is plenty valuable. Now the risk of completing his development and extracting big league worth falls upon the White Sox staff.

It’s not difficult to envision a future in the big leagues for Medeiros, but an average left-handed reliever seems like the most plausible outcome at present. Given where the team is at in the standings and the upcoming 40 man roster crunch, that’s something that Milwaukee could afford to part with.

Troy Stokes Jr. was riding a different wave. A former fourth-round pick, he had never received much prospect attention, but a strong 2017 campaign split between Carolina and Double-A Biloxi started to change that. Really, Stokes was just doing what he always did by showing good speed, decent pop, and a patient eye. Now, he was doing it at AA, and the pop was showing up in games. By year’s end, he was one of just ten minor league players to finish with at least 20 home runs (Stokes hit 20 on the nose) and 20 steals (he swiped 30). People started to stick him on their prospect lists.

Given their different trajectories heading in, it’s funny that Ray and Stokes have arrived at… exactly the same place. Through last Friday (July 6), Ray was batting .244/.342/.453 in 81 games for Biloxi, for an On Base Percentage plus Slugging Percentage (OPS) of .796, an isolated slugging percentage (ISO) of .209, and a True Average (TAv) of .282. Ray had tallied 101 strikeouts, against 44 unintentional walks. Among his 78 hits were 21 doubles, 5 triples, and 12 home runs. He’d stolen 21 bases in 25 attempts.

Stokes, meanwhile, was batting .250/.359/.442 in 83 games for the Shuckers, for an OPS of .800, an ISO of .192, and a TAv of .302. He had tallied 101 strikeouts, against 43 unintentional walks. Among his 77 hits were 18 doubles, four triples, and 11 home runs. He’d stolen 13 bases in 14 attempts.

The carbon-copy batting line makes for a fun quirk, and also serves as a useful checkpoint for prospect evaluation. Ray’s performance feels more personally and emotionally significant after the rocky start to his Brewers career. He’s showing a glimpse of the potential the Brewers saw when they signed him for a franchise-record bonus of $4.125 million. Because of his draft pedigree, it’s tempting to think that he’s only now starting to scratch the surface. He has made adjustments this year; that can portend good things. He’s extremely athletic, with loud tools and a positive attitude; these, too, are good things to have on your side.

Stokes’s performance is just as good as Ray’s 2018 thus far. But Stokes is essentially doing the same thing he did at this level last year, only over a larger sample. He had some helium coming into the season, but instead of continuing to rise, he’s riding along at the same (high) level. He hasn’t been underwhelming by any stretch, but he hasn’t been overwhelming either, and his performance doesn’t have the same redemptive narrative quality that Ray’s does.

So what to make of the pair going forward? Ray has more of everything, basically. More speed. More raw power. More of a chance to play up the middle. Certainly more name recognition.

Ray has more variance, too, and higher expectations, which could be his blessing or his curse. It’s easy look at the top prospect and see the makings of a five-tool outfielder if he can tighten up his approach and hit for a bit more average. It’s also easy to see his swing-and-miss issues spelling trouble against better and better breaking balls.

Stokes is younger, which adds a wrinkle to his evaluation. At present, he’s pull-happy, and his high-loft swing leaves him susceptible to lazy pop flies. He’s striking out more this year than he has before. That may be something he can grow out of, or it may be a warning sign that his hit tool will forever hover in the 40-45 scouting grade range. He’s a competent enough outfielder, but fits best in left, so his path to regular playing time will ride more on his bat than will Ray’s.

We can continue to debate the various merits and red flags of each player, or we could do the more sensible thing and simply sit back and enjoy the ride. Right now, Ray and Stokes are similar prospects doing similar things, having taken very different routes to get there. Who knows where their paths will lead; every prospect develops differently and it’s usually very difficult to identify future major league stars. Either one could become a star or a bust or a quality role-player. They could even continue their ascent locked in step, giving Milwaukee a pair of Mike Cameron-esque options to shuffle into what will continue to be a very crowded outfield mix. Three cheers for organizational depth.

Within the draft, the first 10 rounds are considered to be the most important for the selecting teams. Each of the 300+ picks inside those rounds comes with a bonus slot value attached, and the slot values add up for each team to create their bonus pool for signing players. It is imperative for teams that the players they select in the first 10 rounds sign a professional contract, otherwise the team not only loses out on that drafted player, but also has to subtract the slot value of that pick from their bonus pool. In 2017, only three players selected in the top 10 rounds failed to sign with the team that drafted them. One of those young men was Drew Rasmussen, a right-handed pitcher from Oregon State selected by the Tampa Bay Rays at #31 overall.

Rasmussen arrived at Oregon State as a freshman back in 2015 and immediately hit the ground running in his college career. During his first year on campus he tossed 106.0 frames in 19 appearances (14 starts) for the Beavers, working to a 2.80 ERA. He pitched the first perfect game in OSU history against Washington State, was a freshman All-American and made the Pac-12 First Team. He began his sophomore season in the Beavers’ rotation and during his first six starts he compiled a 3.41 ERA in 37.0 innings, but with an improved 42:10 K/BB ratio and a sub-1.00 WHIP. Then disaster struck in March, and the right-hander heard a pop in his elbow. He needed Tommy John surgery.

The righty was able to work his way back from the procedure relatively quickly and returned to the mound after only about 13 months post-op. Oregon State was one of the top collegiate teams in the nation during the 2017 season and Rasmussen was indeed able to contribute, first in a bullpen role while rebuilding his strength and stamina before returning to the rotation. All together he wound up appearing in eight games, starting four of them, and logging 27.0 innings. He yielded only a 1.00 ERA and stuck out 26 batters against just five walks, once again posting a sub-1.00 WHIP while displaying remarkable control so soon after his surgery. Rasmussen recorded two saves and three winning decisions while helping OSU earn the #1 seed in the College World Series.

Post-surgery, Rasmussen was boasting a plus fastball in the 92-96 MPH range, touching 98 and with good extension, according to MLB Pipeline. He was getting swings and misses with his heater while also flashing a solid changeup and slider. He has a starter’s build at 6’2″ and 225 lbs and an easy delivery with a pretty standard high three-quarters release point, which helped lead to pretty effective control around the strike zone. Even with his previous surgery, the profile was strong enough for the Rays to use their Competitive Balance Round A pick on Rasmussen, which came with a $2,134,900 slot bonus value.

After the draft, however, some concerns arose over discrepancies between his pre- and post-draft physicals. Tampa Bay’s main concern was his surgically repaired elbow. The two sides were unable to come to an agreement, and Rasmussen’s request to become an MLB free agent was denied due to his two remaining years of college eligibility. So he prepared to return to Oregon State for what would be his redshirt junior season. But the elbow issues that the Rays deemed worrisome enough to let the righty walk proved to be significant; he required a second Tommy John procedure in August of 2017.

Not surprisingly, Rasmussen wound up missing the entire 2018 campaign for OSU while recovering and rehabbing from another significant surgery. Even though he didn’t take the mound at all, his scouting report when healthy and previous work for Oregon State had outlets like Baseball America (#109) and MLB Pipeline (#200) convinced that the former first-round pick was still one of the top draft prospects out there. He wound up falling to day two, and with their 6th round pick in the 2018 MLB Draft, the Milwaukee Brewers selected Drew Rasmussen at #185 overall.

Although it’s not official yet, the belief is that Rasmussen will sign with Milwaukee this summer (for potentially below the pick #185 slot value of $251,700) rather than return to school and try the draft again next season, when he’ll be a 23 year old senior sign without any negotiating leverage. Rasmussen told  Brad Ford at Brew Crew Ball that he hasn’t advanced to the point in his rehab where he is even playing catch yet, and that he was waiting to take that next step until he knew what organization he would be a part of. Now the Brewers and their award-winning medical staff will be able to guide him through a recovery and throwing program to get him back to full strength.

Most scouts believe that Rasmussen’s medical history will force him into relief as a professional, although Drew himself says that the Brewers have not yet given him any indication either way as to whether he’ll be in a bullpen role or a starter once he’s fully healthy. He has had plenty of experience, and success, in both spots. For what it’s worth, he says he prefers the structure of being a rotational pitcher although the variability of coming out of the bullpen can be exciting.

The Brewers may have landed themselves one of the most compelling prospects in the draft, a first-round talent with the stuff to be a successful starter who plummeted down draft boards and missed out on a couple million dollars due to injury. The club has been extremely cautious in bringing back their young arms from such dramatic afflictions and we shouldn’t expect to see Rasmussen make his professional debut until sometime in 2019. But the successful rehabs of Taylor Williams and Adrian Houser, both of whom have contributed at the MLB level this season after undergoing Tommy John surgery within the past two years, should help inspire some confidence that Milwaukee’s medical staff can help Drew Rasmussen get back to 100 percent. Once he’s healthy, he’ll be one prospect whose development I’ll certainly be watching closely.

I first profiled Jankins for BP Milwaukee last summer, towards the end of his breakout campaign in Appleton with the Timber Rattlers. In his first full season as a professional, the now soon-to-be 23 year old compiled a 3.62 ERA and a sterling 55 DRA- across 141.2 innings, accompanied by a 121:32 K/BB ratio and 55 percent ground ball rate. The organization was so taken with his performance that the decision was made to skip Jankins over the Carolina League entirely and assign him straight to the starting rotation in Double-A Biloxi to start the 2018 season. So far, Jankins hasn’t appeared overwhelmed by the significant jump in competition; it’s been quite the opposite, in fact. After his most recent start on Wednesday, a performance of 6.3 shutout innings in a win against the Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp, Jankins owns a 2.03 ERA through an even 31.0 innings with 26 punchouts against just seven free passes. Pitching wins don’t mean much, especially at the minor league level, but according to Shuckers’ broadcaster Garrett Greene, Jankins is the first hurler in team history to record a victory in his each of his first five starts.

I recently had the opportunity to catch up with Thomas Jankins about his career so far and what the future may hold:

Kyle Lesniewski: You were chosen by Milwaukee in the 13th round out of Quinnipiac University in 2016. Can you describe what that process was like?

Thomas Jankins: Getting drafted in 2016 was a dream come true for me. It was something that I had set as a legitimate goal for myself when I entered college and to achieve it was a special feeling. I was very fortunate to have such great teammates and coaches around me during my time at Quinnipiac, and I was able to develop my skills to a point where I felt like I was ready to compete at the next level. The Brewers were certainly among the teams that were interested at the time, so when they called in the 13th round it wasn’t a huge surprise. If I could go back and redo the process I might have changed my expectations for the draft so that I could have enjoyed the experience a little more. I honestly thought I was going to get picked earlier, but I think it was a humbling and motivating experience for me to go through. In the end, hearing your name called in any round means that you are going to get an opportunity and that’s all you can ever ask for. The only thing that went into my decision to forgo my senior year was that I promised my parents that I would eventually finish my degree. Thankfully, with the help of the Brewers, I have been able to finish my Bachelor’s degree in my first two off seasons which I’m extremely proud of.

KL: How has the transition to pro ball gone? What’s life like for a minor leaguer drafted in the later rounds?

TJ: The transition has certainly been one that has been filled with constant adjustments. From being a person that hadn’t left New England much in my life to living and playing in new places like Montana, Wisconsin, Arizona and Mississippi there were times early on where it felt a little overwhelming. I’m very lucky to have a great support system in family and friends who have helped me along the way and I’ve also learned to embrace the constant changes that most minor leaguers face. As far as being a later round draft pick, I try not to let that define me as a player. The Brewers are a tremendous organization in the amount of resources they dedicate to us as players, and I try to take advantage of that as much as I can. They also have shown that they are less concerned with what round you were picked in once you step foot between the lines, which is encouraging to us players because we understand it’s up to us to perform and advance our own careers.

KL: You’re from a cold weather climate and your school has produced only one major leaguer. Because of that, some scouting outlets saw you as sort of a “raw” prospect with untapped upside that could be unlocked in the pro ranks. What adjustments/improvements has the organization encouraged you to make since coming to Milwaukee?

TJ: I’m not sure “raw” would be the best way I would describe myself at the time but there were certainly a number of improvements in my game that had to be made. Consistency was a major theme in my first season as I had to learn what it meant to prepare at the professional level. Cleaning up my delivery, especially out of the stretch was a step I took in that first year to have more consistent stuff every time I took the mound. I think my second season was about me establishing my identity as a pitcher, there were certainly some bumps and bruises along the way but there were also many valuable lessons learned. I believe moving forward, I have a much better understanding of the player I have to become to be successful at the major league level.

KL: You were successful last season in Appleton, and the Brewers took the unconventional step of skipping you over Carolina and assigned you straight to Double-A in Biloxi. How did that conversation go, were you surprised by the assignment? Does it feel like a vote of confidence from the organization?

TJ: I came into spring training this year trying not to have any expectation of where I would be playing this season. In the past, I have let things like team assignments that are outside of my control have too much of an effect on my performance and this year I was trying to simplify my approach. I just knew that I was going to compete and train as hard as I could to give myself the best opportunity to make a team. When I learned I was assigned to Biloxi, I wouldn’t say I was surprised because I expect a lot out of myself but I knew that it was up to me to show that it wasn’t a mistake. The organization showed that they believed in me to handle it and I believed I could as well, it was just about using my preparation and knowledge from previous seasons as tools to help me make the jump.

KL: Can you provide a self scouting report? How do you like to attack hitters?

TJ: I would describe myself as pretty typical sinker ball pitcher. My velocity is not overwhelming so I have to rely on movement and control to manipulate hitters into swinging at the pitches I want them too. I think I am fairly aggressive in the way I attack hitters which often leads to early count contact, I’m a big believer in the 3 pitches or less mindset on the mound. My goal every game is to try and get into the 7th inning. I try to induce as many ground balls as I can using my sinker, and use my changeup and slider as more swing and miss type pitches. When my slider is on, I think it is my best pitch and hopefully the consistency with it continues to improve. Currently, I am working on using a cutter and hopefully that can become a major weapon for me down the road.

KL: What are your goals for this season and for your career? What strengths will carry Thomas Jankins to the major leagues?

TJ: My goals for the season are to develop a consistent 4th pitch that I can use while still making improvements on my other 3 offerings. Every year I also strive to lead the team in innings. I hope to continue to mature in how I handle both success and failure as I think I have a better understanding of the pacing of a full season after going through my first one last year. My goal for my career is to be a starting pitcher at the major league level, I certainly have a long way to go in my development but I believe I have what it takes to get there someday. I think one of my biggest strengths is self-awareness, I have a good grasp on the things that make me successful on the mound and also understand the many things I need to improve on. If I can continue to polish up the things I struggle with while maintaining who I am, I think that’s a pretty good recipe for success.

The Shuckers are off to a promising 9-4 start this season, and plenty of their success can be attributed to their dynamic duo atop the lineup. With Ray batting leadoff and Stokes right behind him, they rank as #2 and #1 on the squad in OPS and have helped the Shuckers score the league’s second-most runs (at 60). For the 22 year old Stokes, his success is the continuation of his breakout 2017 campaign. Some changes to his swing last year helped Stokes discover his power stroke while suiting up for the Class-A Advanced Mudcats, and the diminutive slugger posted a cumulative .285 TAv with 20 home runs and 30 steals across 100 games with Carolina and 35 games in Biloxi to end the season. He snuck his way into BP’s top-20 Brewers prospects list for the first time as a result and hasn’t stopped hitting so far in 2018. Through his first 13 games, Stokes had produced a .333/.500/.556 slash for a whopping .386 TAv. Seven of his 15 hits have gone for extra bases, including five doubles, a triple, and a home run. He’s swiped three bags already without being caught, and while 18 strikeouts in 60 plate appearances isn’t exactly ideal, he’s also drawn a league-leading 13 walks.

As for Corey Ray, he really has yet to experience much extended success as a professional since getting selected #5 overall in the 2016 MLB Draft. It was a legitimate question whether or not he would get bumped up to Biloxi to start this season or if he would return for a third go-around in Class-A Advanced, but so far it looks like the more aggressive assignment was the proper choice. Ray slumped to a .254 TAv while leading the Carolina League with 156 strikeouts last season, but also got a late start to the year thanks to meniscus surgery that may have had more adverse affect on his game than was originally anticipated. Ray’s work ethic and drive to improve his game have never been in question, and as Brad Ford recently explored for Brew Crew Ball, some mechanical adjustments appear to be the main driver for Corey’s improvements this season.

This season, Ray has raised the position of his hands at setup – sort of the reverse Keon Broxton adjustment – while also working to quiet his leg kick action and get his lower half more involved in the swing. The 23 year old is finally stinging the ball as was hoped when he was drafted, and owns am outstanding .351/.383/.614 slash through his first 13 games and 60 plate appearances in 2018. Like Stokes, he’s been an extra base machine – of his 20 hits, six have been doubles, three have gone for triples, and he’s popped another one over the fence. He’s also successfully nabbed five bases without getting thrown out and has scored 11 times – second-most in the Southern League. John Eschleman wrote for the top prospect list that Ray “[will] require significant adjustments at the plate to stick as a regular” after looking overmatched against Carolina League pitching last season, and it appears as though Corey is well on his way to making those necessary improvements.

It’s obviously still very early on in the season and we should refrain from drawing sweeping conclusions about any player at this point in the year. But it’s hard not to be encouraged out of what we are seeing from Milwaukee’s “next wave” of outfield prospects, especially the early improvements that Corey Ray has shown at the plate. Both players possess plus speed and are capable of manning center field, and we know how much David Stearns loves power/speed threats at premium defensive positions. Truly, there may not have ever been a better time to be a fan of the Milwaukee Brewers than the present, as we are being treated not only with a talented big league club that’s competing for the playoffs but also a stocked minor league system with tons of guys, like Corey Ray and Troy Stokes, who look to have a chance at legitimate MLB roles in the future.