The fact is that Jonathan Schoop has a lot of problems, and even if those specific problems don’t materialize, he’s an extremely poor fit in the current Brewers’ lineup. Let’s start with the Baseball Prospectus Annual 2017 commentary on Schoop:

“Of the 140-plus seasons that make up baseball history, there have been only 16 in which a player had at least 60 extra-base hits but an OBP south of .300. The thing has only been done 21 total times. Yet, four players did it in 2016 alone. Schoop was among them. His extreme impatience at the plate actually helped hold down his previously problematic strikeout rate, but it still put a ceiling on his offensive value. It’s hard to say how viable his hitting profile is. He relies on power for value, but doesn’t hit the ball that hard (171st of 213 qualifiers in average exit velocity). He doesn’t pull the ball or hit it in the air at an exceptional rate. Any time now, he could go from a hair above average for a second baseman to below average for just about anyone.”

What we have here is a player who doesn’t walk and doesn’t hit the ball hard. He has a knack for hitting home runs for the moment, but this profile strikes me as one that pitchers will figure out pretty quickly, and that, along with simple regression, is probably why his OBP tanked from .338 last season, to .273 this season. .273 is absurdly low even for Schoop, but it’s also closer to his career norm than .338.

 Some might argue that even a pre-2017 version of Schoop, typically a one WARP player, would be an improvement over what the Brewers were getting offensively at shortstop and at the keystone, but that’s not necessarily the case. For one thing, the Brewers could use a right-handed bat. Between Yelich, Shaw, Thames, and Moustakas, the majority of offensive pop on the team comes from the left side. Schoop is, technically, a right-handed bat, but he happens to have odd reverse platoon splits both this season, and over the course of his career.

Schoop 2018:
V. LHP – .652

V. RHP – .706

Schoop Career:
V. LHP – .697 OPS

V. RHP – .758 OPS

This means that he can’t actually serve as a platoon partner for Travis Shaw at second base, and while you can theoretically play him at shortstop, that defensive alignment is terrifying. Schoop isn’t a shortstop, and the dropoff defensively from Arcia to a career second baseman is staggering. If you were looking for someone to serve as the short side of a platoon with Shaw, you already had this guy:

Villar 2018

V. LHP – .956

V. RHP – .666

Villar Career

V.LHP – .767 OPS

V. RHP – .701 OPS

Theoretically he could be an upgrade for Arcia as Arcia’s offense has been absolutely putrid this season. The Brewer pitching staff is flyball-heavy, and shifting reduces the need for fielders with good range. That is all quite possibly true. It’s also the case that against left-handed pitching, Hernan Perez is almost certainly a superior option both offensively and defensively, as he has posted an .832 OPS against lefties this season, and unlike Schoop, has played some shortstop recently and competently.

The only place he theoretically fits into the lineup is at shortstop against right-handed pitching, but the lineup doesn’t really need help against righties, and plugging that square peg into this round hole just to get a minor same side platoon offensive boost while sacrificing huge amounts of defense, is a whole lot of bother with very little benefit.

Hopefully Schoop turns it around as he seems like a nice enough player and it’s no fun to see anyone on the team struggle to this extent, but Schoop has a weird, easily defeatable skillset and doesn’t fit neatly on the current team. They still could use a right-handed bat, and if one happens to pass through on waivers, it could be a short stay for Schoop.

What is interesting to note is that as tough as the names look on paper for the Brewers’ upcoming schedule, what with the champion of the trade deadline Dodgers, ghosts of contenders past in San Francisco, surging Rockies, and payroll-heavy Nationals, is that it does not look that difficult when all is said and done. Assessing teams by their underlying production with True Average (TAv) for offense and Deserved Run Average (DRA) for pitching, the Milwaukee roster acquits itself quite well.

In terms of pitching (by DRA), the Brewers are better than each of their upcoming opponents except for the Dodgers and Nationals. Ironically, as rough as the Brewers bats have performed all season in terms of park-adjusted Runs Scored, Milwaukee is better than each upcoming opponent except for the Dodgers (according to TAv). Really, the truest, toughest task of the next 20 games is facing Los Angeles for seven of them. Otherwise, it’s a chance for the Brewers to show their respective strengths, which includes the their exceptional defense, the third most efficient fielding unit in baseball (now tied with Houston and Oakland).

The trap in this sequence of games appears to be the relative offensive strength of each opposing club save for the Dodgers. While Milwaukee combines a decent rotation and excellent bullpen (in terms of DRA), both of these elements of the club “play up” thanks to the fielding performance; all this results in a ball club that has already prevented approximately 59 runs. This is incredible; this is nearly as many runs as the club prevented in all of 2017, which was still good for fifth best in the National League. That excellent pitching and fielding unit will take on what ostensibly amounts to four below average offenses over the next 20 games; these below average assessments can certainly be verified by Runs Scored, and further backed up by TAv in nearly every case (the Nationals might be the outlier here). This is the test that these Brewers were made for.

What will be much more tricky, of course, is the Brewers offense improving against each of the forthcoming pitching staffs with the exception of San Diego. Milwaukee’s offense looks bad overall, but the run production did improve during May and June, and the July bats are still better than the March/April production. Worse yet, the club is dealing with a series of injuries and tricky promotion decisions with Orlando Arcia and Domingo Santana, who have both recently made adjustments at Triple-A Colorado Springs. The best story at the deadline would be the lack of a need for a headline-grabbing trade thanks to the reinstatement of Arcia and Santana, but recent comments by Stearns suggest that promotions may not be the immediate course of events. Thus, the Brewers may be caused to defeat the Dodgers by wringing every ounce of production possible out of Tyler Saladino, Brad Miller, and Nate Orf in the middle infield, which is an unsavory equation at best; on the bright side, Brett Phillips or Keon Broxton could get another chance to shine in the outfield.

The following table outlines the overall race in the National League, for this installment featuring each team’s TAv, DRA, and park-adjusted run differential. “True Pace” assesses each club’s expected record according to their run differential, while “True .500″ assesses each club’s expected win total if they went .500 on top of their existing run differential.

When all the dust has settled, answering these questions of attrition is what contending clubs accomplish. So, in some sense the Brewers truly will have a chance to establish their position in the coming sprint to the playoffs. What would be a mistake is to assume that this team is starting this series of games with inferior talent, a roster that somehow makes them less than capable of facing these competitive squads. Thus begins the race: Go Brewers!

Photo Credit: Benny Sieu, USA Today Sports Images

Baseball Prospectus: Milwaukee Brewers Team Audit

Make no mistake about it, Brewers fans and analysts, this is a trap. It’s so easy to polish off phenomenal expectations at a time like this, and rejoice that the Brewers get to play an apparently easier stretch of schedule entering the break. But the team is experiencing some injuries of attrition in the field, just as the offense has finally produced a stretch of 30 games averaging better than 2018 NL / Miller Park runs scored (more on that later). The rotation has done a fantastic job, as has the elite bullpen, which are only getting attention due to a couple of recent blow-ups and blown leads….mostly occurring in games where the batters still cannot get it together.

So in honor of this schedule, which is certainly a trap, let’s have some fun with 21 statistics that are neither here, there, nor anywhere for what will certainly Attrition Central for #TeamDepth. If the Brewers can escape this stretch of play with a 9-12 record, that’s probably correction enough for the run differentials and a sign that the war of attrition did not go terribly wrong.

Ten
Ryan Braun is having a somewhat tough year balancing some new fielding assignments, relatively part time play, nagging injuries once again, and hard-hit batted balls with relatively bad luck. But it’s not all bad for the face of the franchise: in 9.7 percent of his plate appearances, Braun has hit for extra bases (12 doubles, one triple, and eight home runs). By comparison, the average National League bat hits for extra bases in approximately 7.6 percent of plate appearances.

Twelve
For the season, much has been made of the Brewers batters’ ten shutouts. In fact, this is quite an important number for Milwaukee batters, as the total Runs Scored “zero” has appeared more frequently than all but one run total: two runs.

For the 2018 campaign, the Brewers have scored two runs more frequently than any other outcome by the offense. What’s worse is that this number is not really accompanied by very good run totals, either; five runs is very nice, and it’s good to see that number tied with “0” for second place, but after that both of “3” and “1” are below average run totals.

Sixteen
For all the criticisms that Brewers baserunners have faced for their aggressive style over the years, it seems that the exceptional baserunning performance of Milwaukee has mostly escaped fan consciousness. Undoubtedly this is due in part to the fact that the Brewers are not scoring runs at an average clip. But, according to Baseball Prospectus Baserunning Runs, the Brewers are the third best team in the MLB in terms of baserunning production. Translating this to stolen bases, Lorenzo Cain leads the team with 16 steals in 19 attempts, ahead of Jonathan Villar (10 / 12), Christian Yelich (9 / 10) and Ryan Braun (7 / 9). In fact, Milwaukee is the second best team in the National League in terms of stolen bases (58 of 71 attempts). Run, run, run!

Twenty
Only the New York Mets have attempted fewer sacrifice bunt attempts than the Brewers in 2018. Milwaukee has attempted 20 bunts thus far, with successful sacrifices 14 times; this is good for a success rate that is higher than the league average. Ironically, for the lack of runs scored, Milwaukee is not only a great base running team, but they are also posting average or better situational hitting statistics according to Baseball Reference. This occurs across categories: sacrifice bunts, productive outs, baserunners scored, and advancing baserunners (with less than two outs at third base and zero outs at second base). The problem for the Brewers is simply that they do not get enough batters on base frequently enough…

Thirteen
….and when the Brewers do get baserunners on, their tendency to hit ground balls results in the highest percentage of ground ball double plays in the National League (13 percent of GIDP opportunities). This is notably worse than the NL average of double plays produced in ten percent of opportunities. So much for strike outs being a bad thing!

Four
One wonders if the defensive flexibility of the ballclub might actually explain some of the troubles the club has in terms of scoring runs…the Brewers only have four players with more than 50 starts at one position (Lorenzo Cain and Travis Shaw lead as the most regular regulars with 70 starts, followed by Villar (55) and Arcia (53) in the middle infield). Jesus Aguilar does not even have 50 starts at first base this year; Christian Yelich’s most regular position is left field…for 32 games, and catcher and right field have also been impacted in the games started department (probably due to the respective performances of Manny Pina and Domingo Santana more than strategy).

I was certainly in the camp that expected defensive flexibility to be a strength for these Brewers, and I certainly do not think it is a downright liability given the performance of the fielders. But given the performance of the offense, I think it is worth questioning whether flexible defensive roles have an impact on batting performance for these players.

Nine
Why are the Brewers pitchers so good? Their groundball percentage is fading to the middle of the pack, minimizing their ability to produce double plays as well. However, Milwaukee arms excel at limiting fly balls, and their 9.46 percent pop-up rate is the best in the MLB according to Baseball Prospectus.

Five
For all the rumblings about the Brewers relief pitching hitting their regression to the mean, it’s worth noting that the pitchers are not terribly far above average in some stats to begin with. For instance, the Brewers rank fifth in the National League with 32 percent of their Inherited Runners Scored, despite inheriting fewer runners than the league average (100 versus 106 for the typical NL team). This is an indication of how the club is quite good with inherited runners scored, but not necessarily perched atop the league.

4.3 at 23
It’s too bad that the Brewers pitchers are not yielding more ground balls, because Orlando Arcia remains one of the best shortstops in baseball despite his lack of playing time. Arcia has the fewest games played of any SS in the Top 10 for Fielding Runs Above Average. Yet, the 23-year old glove-first fielder ranks sixth in FRAA with his 4.3 mark. Another statistic worth remembering: at 23, Arcia is tied for Carlos Correa as the youngest elite defensive shortstop, and among shortstops with at least 60 games only Ahmed Rosario of the Mets is younger (but he’s nowhere near as good defensively). If you like more straightforward statistics, according to Baseball Reference Arcia remains one of the very best MLB shortstops with 10 Defensive Runs Saved; only Freddy Galvis and Addison Russell are better in the NL.

Second Best at .336
Jesus Aguilar is having a fantastic season, boasting a .336 True Average (TAv) and 1.4 FRAA. That offensive performance is second only to Freddie Freeman among first basemen with 60 or more games played.

One
For their fantastic pitching staff, the Brewers only have one player in the top ten percent of all MLB, in terms of Wins Above Replacement Player (WARP). That player is lefty high leverage reliever Josh Hader, ranked as 40th (!) with 1.54 WARP. No full-time reliever ranks higher, and only one pitcher better than Hader is younger (Jack Flaherty).

Ten
Many Brewers fans are suggesting that the club needs an ace in their pitching rotation. When I host chats on BPMilwaukee Twitter (@BPMilwaukee), the most common questions since the off season typically concern the quality of the MLB rotation. Throwing out the extremely advanced stats, let’s look at games started and ERA+ (a contextual assessment of Earned Runs Average). Here we are, half way through the season, and only ten clubs have at least three starters with 10 GS and an ERA at or above league average: the Red Sox, Cubs, Cleveland, Tigers, Astros, Angels, Mets, Cardinals, Nationals, and Brewers.

Seventeen / 40 Percent
If you’re interested in an ace, though, using the colloquial definition of someone who can lead a rotation in terms of performance and starts, who would be better than Jhoulys Chacin? Sorting all MLB starting pitchers by games started and ERA+, Chacin meets the strongest definition of good performance in a heavy workload.

Of course, including advanced contextual statistics, it is worth questioning whether the club will see some course correction from the starting pitchers. Here, Junior Guerra’s 4.69 DRA is the best among Brewers starters with at least 60 innings pitched. That’s good for 71st in the MLB. Yet, once Guerra is working between the lines, his splitter remains one of the best in the game at inducing swings-and-misses; thus far Guerra is yielding nearly 40 percent whiffs-per-swing on the split (only slightly lagging his 2016 performance that put that pitch on the map).

Thirteen / Forty-Three
Overall, the Brewers pitching rotation forms quite a strong unit: the club’s starting pitchers have 13 Runs Prevented as a group. This performance helps the team maximize a phenomenal bullpen, as the Brewers can frequently keep the game close. With a bullpen that has prevented 43 runs, the starting pitchers are often handing close games to relief pitchers that are ready to help convert those games into wins.

Six
When is a better than average offense not really that good? Over the last 30 games for the Brewers, it turns out! Those big ticket runs totals against Philadelphia have gone a long way toward improving Milwaukee’s season long offensive figures….

….but for all that, over the last 30 games the most frequently Runs Scored total for the Brewers has declined from the season leading 2 RS. Twenty percent of the Brewers’ games since they returned from Minnesota have ended with 1 RS for Milwaukee. If you missed seeing 2 RS, do not worry, for that remained the second most frequent run total over that time.

Seventeenth in Right
Domingo Santana is a tough player to figure out right now. If someone had told Brewers fans that the right fielder would have -2.6 FRAA roughly halfway through the season, most would have expected that he would be in the running for one of the most valuable right fielders in the MLB. Alas, in True Average (TAv), Santana’s mark of .259 (i.e., roughly league average) ranks 17th of 24 MLB RF with 60 or more games played.

Fourteen
Perhaps Lorenzo Cain is able to produce so many stolen bases in part because he’s on first base so frequently: the Brewers Center Fielder is drawing walks in 13.8 percent of his plate appearances!

Nineteen (Two)
Without park adjustment, across the 2018 MLB the Brewers’ offense currently ranks 19th in terms of Runs Scored. Their pitching staff currently ranks 2nd in terms of Runs Allowed.

Photo Credit: Jeff Hanisch, USA Today Sports Images

In my humble opinion Josh Hader is the closest thing they’ve had to “ace” material in a very long time, but, pitching isn’t really where they excel in terms of internal development. During the last draft the running joke among Brewer fans was that they would likely go with an athletic center fielder or shortstop type again, despite a glut in the minors. It’s what they do. There are a lot of good reasons to this approach and in many ways it mirrors the Cubs’ rebuild, which focused on position players to the detriment of pitching. Again, it’s not that the Cubs had no pitching in that mighty farm system, but there’s a reason Jake Arrieta, John Lackey, and Jon Lester anchored that World Series team.  Pitching is fragile in many ways, and there are large incentives in place which steer teams towards the trade and free agent market to build a rotation. The Brewers have allegedly been active in the the trade market, and were linked to Jose Quintana before the Cubs paid a pretty penny to get him. They are still mentioned frequently as bidders for Oakland’s Sonny Gray. If the price is right, they should pounce.

Settlers of Catan and Trade
Settlers of Catan was the first major breakthrough of German-style boardgames into America. It’s not the best of the genre, but it is very good, and if you want to learn about trade you won’t do much better.  In Settlers of Catan you build cities and towns that, when built, produce resources. You can then use those resources to build roads, more towns, more cities, and build armies. The challenge of the game is that you will almost never have all of the resources you need to actually build everything you need to build, and so must trade with your competition to accomplish anything.

What the game quickly teaches you is that even if you are the best sheep producer in the world, you’re not winning anything without some timber.

Baseball operates under similar principles. At the beginning of the year before the draft took place, four of the Brewers’ top 10 prospects were outfielders, all with the potential to stick in center field. As previously mentioned, three were pitchers, two were shortstops, and finally, Lucas Erceg projecting to a prototypical power positions as a third baseman. The Brewers are cranking out up-the-middle guys with great efficiency.

Pitchers are fundamentally different than position players. If a position player fails to reach the majors, it’s likely that he just didn’t develop. Pitchers, on the other hand, have two major ways to fail, as they can simply stall in development or become severely injured. Something like a quarter of pitchers undergo Tommy John surgery at some point, and any given pitcher is very likely to have their development delayed by a serious injury at some point. Starting pitching is especially difficult to develop as almost all prospects need to master at least one additional pitch while avoiding every other pitfall. Pitching is hard, and dangerous, and they have two ways to flame out, not just one.

Acquiring proven major league talent reduces both of these risks dramatically. While big league pitchers still suffer severe injuries routinely, durability is its own greatest indicator, and a pitcher who stays relatively healthy for several years is more likely to remain that way. In Sonny Gray’s case, his small frame along with his 2016 injury and reduced effectiveness is cause for concern, but his prior track record, youth, and impressive rebound year make it likely that he will adequately serve out his contract. He boasts a stellar 3.02 DRA and ranks 28th in PWARP, and most importantly, would be an enormous upgrade over whoever is bumped from the rotation, be it the struggling Junior Guerra (8.60 DRA entering Tuesday) or the struggling Zach Davies (5.97 DRA).

Will Gray be expensive? Probably yes, but for an outfielder of which the Brewers have many, and maybe an arm, which, again, may explode, as pitching arms do, Gray is worth it. Moreover, the farm system would still likely be in good shape, as the Brewers have shown themselves to be adept at creating additional outfield prospects. Acquiring Gray would also prevent the Cubs (or Rockies) from doing so potentially doubling the benefit. The Brewers have their Corbin Burnes and Freddy Peraltas in the minors, but they also have a very good offense in the majors, right now, most of it will be around next year as well. Their opening day starter, on the other hand, has been one of baseball’s three worst starting pitchers. One of the benefits of having an absolutely terrible player is that the upgrade when you replace them is enormous. The Brewers have a lot of sheep. It may seem early as far as rebuilds go, but it’s time to cash in some sheep for some wood.

Earlier this week at BPMilwaukee, Seth Victor published an argument in favor of standing pat at the trade deadline. I would like to take this argument seriously, and follow up by investigating the actual needs for the roster. Specifically, what is the likelihood of the Brewers making moves internally that can improve their roster? While fans typically are inclined to argue against placing “developing” players into a pennant race, I largely think this type of fact is immaterial simply because there are so many moving parts to an MLB roster; for instance, if someone like Brandon Woodruff or Lewis Brinson has done all they need to do to develop at Class-AAA Colorado Springs, there is little to no point in keeping them there simply because the Brewers are in a playoff race. Rather, here is where one must closely investigate the Brewers’ roster needs and some of their potential in-house players in order to (a) price out trades and (b) price out the opportunity of developing prospects at the big league level (ex., taking the next step in their development process).

Let me be as clear as possible with this: if the Brewers were working on a development plan prior to the season that included moving Lewis Brinson to center field after the trade deadline (not unlike Orlando Arcia in 2016), and Brinson has reached those developmental milestones, there is little reason to abandon that plan now. That’s not the type of decision that the Brewers should derail simply due to a contending season, for the opportunity cost of developing (or not developing) Brinson at the MLB level to close 2017 is solidifying the odds that the high floor prospect has an MLB role to open 2018 (which is crucial for instantiating the expected rebuild timeframe of contending in 2018).

Mitigating Factors
As I see it, there are two key facts that could justify a trade to boost the MLB rotation:

• Chase Anderson is injured and likely should not be counted on to return to form down the stretch (for example, even if Anderson is healthy in time for a stretch run, likely rehab starts and perhaps some starts to reestablish himself at the MLB level will eat into any type of timeframe for delivering impact starts in the regular season). Making sure Anderson is as healthy as possible, perhaps ready for a playoff run, is important, but it is not worth pushing the righty given his lucrative arbitration reserve contract for the Brewers (and, obviously, for quality control reasons in terms of ensuring the best possible performance upon return).

• Zach Davies and Junior Guerra simply are not pitching well. I just don’t know what else to say; they’re not preventing runs, their Deserved Runs Average (DRA) and contextual Fielding Independent Pitching (cFIP) markers are down from 2016, and there are command and mechanical questions one could ask about both starters. Coupled with the insertion of Brent Suter into the rotation, who is a formidable swingman but may not be desirable as a full stretch run rotation option, the Milwaukee rotation is set for a steep second half regression.

By scaling expected innings pitched (based on full rotational turns over 70 games), and scaling runs prevented based on standard Runs, DRA Runs, and cFIP Runs, what appears to be a solid rotation on the surface may significantly step back:

Should the bullpen continue their excellent performance, they would yield roughly 14 runs prevented over the course of the second half…which would be wiped out completely by the starting rotation if one considers cFIP and DRA to be indicative of their future (emergence of their underlying) performance. This would place pressure on an offense that is already quite volatile, but should the bats keep up their pace Milwaukee could still win approximately 85 to 86 games in this scenario. However, since the club is currently on pace to win 89 games with their balance of good pitching and offense through the first half, an 85-86 win performance would be quite a significant fall during a playoff chase. It should be noted that the Brewers’ Daily Pythagorean (RS / RA) Win-Loss for the season averages to 85 wins, so perhaps there is some sense that this just is an 85 win club (which is quite good for this stage in development, we could really just stop the debate here. Nice job, David Stearns and front office!)

On the offensive side of the equation, the picture is much more certain should Ryan Braun remain healthy. Braun anchors a batting order that is already full of above average position players (Santana, Arcia, Shaw, Eric Thames, and Manny Pina) and great depth (Hernan Perez, Jesus Aguilar, and Eric Sogard). Center field is the only position at which the Brewers feature a median everyday bat (in terms of Total Average) and below average defense (Fielding Runs Above Average). Even the bemoaned Jonathan Villar is pairing an elite glove with his below average bat in 2017, which is drawing some value from the second baseman. In this case, the Brewers’ troubles could perhaps be ironed out by redistributing plate appearances rather than making trades; by taking the harmonic mean between Runs and Runs Batted In, a quick estimate of the Brewers’ batting order and positional performances versus the National League/Miller Park show some inefficiencies in terms of runs production:

Given that the Brewers have solid run production and depth in terms of positional production, they can bolster their second half odds of competing by shifting the batting order. Taking seniority out of the picture (for example, Ryan Braun will likely bat third or fourth or nowhere else in the batting order), Milwaukee could optimize production with the following order:

Taking into account seniority and other specific traits (such as Sogard’s On Base skills, when he returns), a more interesting batting order might be the following:

Moves
So you want to make a trade! The good news is, if you take DRA and cFIP seriously, a trade for a better than average starting pitcher, especially a controllable one, could make the largest impact for the 2017 Brewers. Taking fan favorite Sonny Gray as an example, the steep prospect package required for the righty (probably start with OF Corey Ray or 2B Isan Diaz and RHP Luis Ortiz at the very least) would be worthwhile even if one adjusts for the fact that Gray would move from a 4.49 RA/G environment to a 4.70 RA/G environment (Cot’s Contracts notes that Gray is under arbitration reserve for 2018 and 2019).

Gray has in fact been perfectly average in Oakland, so projecting future runs prevented is a bit difficult in that regard (average is as average does), but DRA and cFIP both love the righty (and Miller Park would love that 56 percent groundball rate). Even scaling DRA and cFIP to a more difficult run environment suggests that Gray over Guerra is a TWO WIN (20 run) move.

How might Brandon Woodruff perform in the MLB? Fans love the righty’s stats, although they rarely cite his relatively easy opponents in Class-AAA Colorado Springs. Nevermind that, DRA and cFIP still like the righty in the minors, but one might not be surprised to see a brief set of struggles as the righty adjusts to his first few turns through the National League. A slightly below average run over 53 innings (once he returns from injury rehab) would be worth at least three runs compared to Davies, and potentially as much as eight or nine runs (nearing the value of another win).

This is an example of how Milwaukee can play for the future in two regards: first, by trading for a solidly above average righty with club control (taking the extreme example of Gray in this case); and second, by advancing one of their strongest organizational arms to regular starts down the stretch. Given that Brewerfan.net reports both Davies and Guerra have minor league options, moving either of those players from the rotation would not necessarily be difficult in terms of transaction cost (it would be personally difficult in terms of player development, I imagine, and there is some opportunity cost in either or both pitchers failing to get a chance to right their stuff for evaluation in the 2018 rotation).

Finally, as for the “start Josh Hader” line, the southpaw is doing quite well in the bullpen. Since I last evaluated the underlying logic in keeping the bullpen relatively stable and allowing their underlying performances to (potentially) emerge, the bullpen has performed quite well. Hader is a part of a great thing in the bullpen, and fans should understand that the prospect is going nowhere in terms of long-term starting pitching plans. In terms of development, the team simply thinks it best to pitch him in the bullpen for now, a move that has played out for several other notable prospects of the last decade.

The lone problem with a trade involving an impact pitcher like Gray is that the Brewers theoretically would not “add wins;” it’s not as though the club would suddenly move the needle from 89 wins to, say, 91 wins. However, if one takes the underlying performance of the starting rotation seriously, adding an impact starting pitcher would help to keep the bottom from falling out of the rotation (which may occur according to both DRA and cFIP). At this very moment, projections such as Baseball Prospectus Team Audit standings suggest the very same for Milwaukee, who may lose the division 84 wins to the Cubs’ 86 wins. So, should the Brewers jump into a trade to improve the rotation, don’t be disappointed if somewhere around 89 wins remains the destination; staving off internal decomposition is just as important as fending off opponents during playoff races.

Photo Credit: Kelley L. Cox, USAToday SportsImages

The 24 year old Cordell was not ranked in the preseason top 10 Rangers’ prospects according to BP, but he was mentioned as a player to watch in the Texas League back in April. The 6’4″ and 195 lb outfielder was the Rangers’ 11th-round draft pick out of Liberty University in 2013. He bats and throws from the right side.

According to Kit House from a BP Ten Pack earlier this season, “Cordell was an interesting toolsy college player before he posted a .914 OPS in 2014, his first full professional season. Then he got a promotion to Double-A, struck out like he was at a middle school dance, and baseball could almost cross off at least one more fourth outfielder-type.” Indeed, Cordell got off to a rather fast start in his career, batting .318/.385/.530 with 13 home runs and 21 steals in 89 games in 2014 between low-A and high-A, and then hitting .311/.376/.528 in 68 games with High Desert to start the 2015 season. As House alluded to, however, Cordell struggled mightily during his first exposure to AA, managing only a .217/.263/.335 slash with five home runs and 10 steals in 56 games. He struck out in 30.2 percent of his plate appearances while walking at just a five percent clip.

Cordell rebounded in a big way in 2016, however. After heading back to the Texas League for a second go-around, Ryan slashed his strikeout rate down to 21.8 percent (more in line with his 20.8 percent MiLB career rate), upped his walk rate to 7.2 percent, and posted a comfortably above-average .264/.319/.484 slash line in 445 plate appearances for a .279 TAv. He stole 12 bags and slugged 19 home runs, which tied for the eighth-most dingers in the league. He was also one of only six players in the Texas League to record a 10+ homer, 10+ steal season.

According to House, Cordell has a “workable” swing that he uses to generate a significant amount of hard contact. He did add that Ryan is unlikely to ever display more than average contact skills or power. Beyond his ability at the plate, however, House felt that his defense could already play at the big league level. He noted that Cordell could become a “very good outfielder” and possesses the “arm of a college pitcher.” Cordell’s plus speed has obviously helped him become a stolen base threat on the base paths, and it also allows him handle capably all three outfield positions. He has experience in the infield, as well, but Brewers GM Slingin’ David Stearns told reporters that the club views him strictly as an outfielder.

Cordell’s overall skill set makes him an intriguing player overall, one whom Fangraphs’ editor Carson Cistulli says is not all that dissimilar from Keon Broxton or Domingo Santana. Cordell has the tools to become a perennial 15+ home run, 15+ stolen base threat with above-average defense in an everyday role at the MLB level. He simply needs to make enough contact in order to effectively tap into those tools. Ryan did miss time with a high-ankle sprain this season, though he’s reportedly near 100% healed from that injury and will play instructional ball this fall to make up for the lost time.

The addition of Ryan Cordell adds yet another name to the increasing log-jam of near MLB ready outfielders within the Brewers’ minor league ranks.  It will certainly be interesting to keep an eye on how Stearns sorts through all those candidates; who will be traded, who will flame out, and who will earn a role with the big league club going forward?

Milwaukee added some potential high-impact talent to a minor league system that is now rated as the best in baseball according to at least one outlet. Here are Baseball Prospectus scouting reports on the newest future Brewers.

Rangers Trade Return:

CF Lewis Brinson
6’3″ || 195 lb || B/T: R/R || Age: 22

Hit: 55 || Power: 55 || Speed: 60 || Arm: 60 || Glove: 70 ||

Future Role: 60 – first division starting center fielder

Report: There’s the potential for five above-average tools, which wasn’t the case in 2014. He now shows a shorter stroke capable of hard contact to all parts of the field, along with a more advanced approach. There’s always been plus raw power, and that pop shows up in games thanks to his strong wrists and his ability to use the lower half to create leverage. If there’s a concern offensively it’s that he still gets pull-happy, and while the strikeout rates have dropped each year, this is still the type of player who is going to swing and miss. A lot.

Brinson’s offense hasn’t caught up to the defense, but that’s a compliment to the glove rather than an insult to the bat. His plus speed helps him get to pretty much everything in center field. He has the type of arm strength you’d love to see in your right fielder, and swoon for when you see that it plays in center.

There were only a handful of players more impressive than Brinson in the Arizona Fall League, and it helped confirm what those who saw him all year had been saying. Even with the strikeouts, this is player who can impact the game in essentially every realistic way you could ask for.  – Chris Crawford

2016 Statistics:

AA Frisco – 326 PA, .236 TAv || .237/.280/.431 || 11 HR || 11 SB || 19.6 percent K || 5.2 percent BB
AAA Colorado Springs – 13 PA, .585 TAv || .615/.615/.923 || 1 HR || 2 SB|| 15.4 percent K || 0 percent BB

RHP Luis Ortiz
6’3″ || 230 lbs || B/T: R/R || Age: 20

Fastball: 65 || Slider: 60 || Changeup: 45 || Command: 55

Future Role: 60 – #3 starting pitcher

Report: Not only do some prefer Ortiz over (Dillon) Tate, but there are those who believe Ortiz has the highest ceiling of any prospect in the (Rangers’) system. He gets his fastball into the mid 90s consistently from an easy arm action, sitting 93-95. The slider is his go-to out pitch. It doesn’t have as much depth as Tate’s, but it has more deception because the tilt comes so late. The only thing keeping him from projecting as a frontline starter right now is the lack of a quality third pitch, as both his curveball and change are closer to 40 than 50. Even without an average third offering, he has a chance to start because the command is so advanced. He repeats his delivery as well as you can expect a teenager to repeat things, and he not only throws strikes with all four pitches, he locates them to any part of the plate.

The concerns with Ortiz don’t come from stuff or an inability to throw strikes, but whether or not he’ll be able to hold up during a season. He’s burly—to put it nicely—and he’s missed time in each of the past two years, ending his 2015 season with elbow tendinitis. If he can stay healthy and keep the weight in check, he could be an innings-eater who misses bats, but there’s more volatility here than the stuff might suggest.  – Chris Crawford

2016 Statistics:

A+ High Desert – 27.2 IP, .216 TAv || 2.60 ERA || 4.20 FIP || 25.5 percent K || 5.5 percent BB || 51 percent GB
AA Frisco – 39.2 IP, .256 TAv || 4.08 ERA || 3.32 FIP || 19.5 percent K || 4.0 percent  BB || 47 percent GB

(Note: Player to be named later won’t be announced until after the completion of the minor league season.)

Giants trade:

RHP Phil Bickford
6’4″ || 200 lbs || B/T: R/R || Age: 20

Fastball: 65/70 || Slider: 50 || Changeup: 40 || Command: 50

Future Role: 45 – back end starter/high-leverage reliever

Report: Bickford’s stuff profiles best in a late-innings relief role. He has the body and arm to work multiple times through a lineup, and he features a deceptive fastball with late life up that generates swings and misses, but he lacks a third pitch and struggles commanding within the zone. His slider can change multiple grades from one start to the next but is something that can be masked in short stints. Bickford’s best-case scenario is a two-pitch starter with a back-end rotation spot. A high-leverage reliever is the safe bet.  -David Lee

Report: Bickford’s arm strength is elite, and when he’s working in short spurts, he’ll touch the high 90s with a four-seam fastball that has late life. His slider is maddeningly inconsistent; he struggles to repeat his three-quarters arm slot, and it will vary from a 40 pitch that he can’t locate to a 60 with hard tilt. The change is very much a work in progress, and like the slider its grade varies wildly from appearance to appearance. The control is ahead of the command, but he does a good enough job filling the strike zone that he should be able to start. However, because the stuff is so much better in shorter outings, it shouldn’t surprise anyone if he ends up making his living as a reliever.  – Chris Crawford

2016 Statistics:

A Augusta – 60.0 IP, .233 TAv || 2.70 ERA || 2.44 FIP || 28.3 percent K || 6.1 percent  BB || 34 percent GB
A+ San Jose – 33.0 IP, .214 TAv || 2.73 ERA || 3.97 FIP || 27.9 percent K || 9.3 percent BB || 35 percent GB

C Andrew Susac
6’1″ || 215 lbs || B/T: R/R || Age: 26

Hit: 50 || Power: 60 || Speed: 30 || Arm: 55 || Glove: 50

Future Role: 55 – above-average MLB starting catcher

Report: Advanced approach with good feel for zone; solid plus power plays in game at present; good strength; balanced swing stays on plane and allows for hard contact pole to pole; natural backspin and carry; improving actions behind the plate; capable defender who could refine to average overall producer with glove; above-average arm with solid release and accuracy. Average bat speed and coverage holes; can be beat by sequencing and elevated heat; danger that overexposure at big-league level will eat into contact and power utility once book gets out; well below-average runner; likely tops out as average defender.  – Nick J. Faleris

Fantasy Impact: Given a full complement of at-bats, Susac could hit .260 with 20 homers, making him a potential top-10 catcher.  – Bret Sayre

MLB Career Statistics (2014-15):

San Francisco – 243 PA, .268 TAv, -1.3 FRAA || .240/.309/.407 || 6 HR || 0 SB || 29.2 percent K || 8.6 percent BB

2016 Statistics:

AAA Sacramento – 239 PA, .302 TAv || .273/.343/.455 || 8 HR || 0 SB || 18.8 percent  K || 10 percent BB
AAA Colorado Springs – 9 PA, .030 TAv || .111/.111/.111 || 0 HR || 0 SB || 33.3 percent  K || 0 percent BB

Reportedly, there were two main issues driving Lucroy’s desire to veto the trade. First of all, Lucroy wanted Cleveland to promise not to pick up his $5.25 million team option for the 2017 season, and secondly, he wanted a promise that he, not Yan Gomes, would be Cleveland’s starting catcher next season if that option was picked up. Cleveland declined on both fronts, and thus Lucroy remained a Brewer, at least for another day.

Beyond his obvious talent, Lucroy’s contract is one of the reasons he is such a sought after target in this year’s trade market. He will earn just about $2 million for the rest of 2016 and has a team option for next year at a bargain basement $5.2 million. Lucroy has already been worth 3.0 WARP this season and is projected to finish at 4.6, making him an All-Star level performer at a utility man price.

Lucroy signed a five-year, $11 million contract in spring training of 2012, after he hit an underwhelming .265/.313/.391 in 2011’s National League Central championship season. He had yet to develop into the MVP candidate we’ve seen him play like in 2014 and 2016, but his defense and youth combined to make him a valuable asset for the Brewers. The Brewers were betting on Lucroy to stay relatively healthy and continue improving. Lucroy, in exchange for his signature, received financial security and certainty at the expense of the chance to earn bigger contracts in salary arbitration over these past few seasons.

For roughly $9 million, Lucroy has provided the Brewers with 34.1 WARP, which even by the most conservative estimates comes out to over $150 million worth of value for the club. A big reason the Brewers — and the many teams who have profited in big ways off similarily negotiated pre-arbitration contracts — is the unbalancd stakes at play in the negotiation. Lucroy was under the Brewers’ control for six years no matter what happened. On Lucroy’s side, however, he had to weigh the possibility of injury or an otherwise unexpected sharp decline prematurely ending his career before he made it to his first arbitration season, his first chance to make substantially more than baseball’s $424,000 minimum salary in 2011.

The no-trade clause Lucroy negotiated into his contract — that he earned through his minor league and major league performance through 2011, and his potential for growth — was one of his only ways to exert control over his career. He needed that to ensure he was in the best possible situation not only to play for a winner, but to set himself up in the best possible way for the big payday he delayed by agreeing to that contract in 2012.

With all that in mind, knowing that Cleveland wasn’t willing to decline his option or guarantee him the starting job in 2017, I find it very difficult to argue with Lucroy’s decision to veto the trade. His talent is so obvious that there will surely be other contending suitors to make a compelling offer (perhaps before this post even goes live).

It’s unfortunate for the Brewers, who have a short window with which to complete another trade. But it’s not Lucroy’s job to look out for the future of this club, and David Stearns and company knew heading into negotations that Cleveland was on Lucroy’s no-trade list and that a veto was a possibility.

Given Lucroy’s obvious talent, though, I don’t think Brewers fans even need to worry about this decision hurting the club’s future. Somebody will almost certainly make the Brewers a great offer, and even if they don’t, they have the full winter and another summer with which to figure out Lucroy’s future, whether via trade or contract extension. Lucroy exercised understandable control over his future with this decision, and the Brewers still have ample opportunity to make the most of the situation.

R.J. Anderson actually called the team, last week, the most interesting team in baseball, for the way they could impact the deadline. That’s because the Brewers could go in a number of different and fascinating directions.

Mainly, the Brewers hold a number of interesting assets, beyond the obvious ones, and could take advantage of the market in a couple of ways.

Trading the Pitchers:
Dave Cameron on FanGraphs predicted that Jonathan Lucroy, Jeremy Jeffress, and Will Smith will be traded this deadline. These are reasonable possibilities, but the Brewers could take it a step further. We all know that the market for starting pitchers is slim. More so than most deadlines, and as usual, a number of teams could benefit from a quality starting pitcher or two. I outlined this in my last piece at BP Milwaukee.

While there haven’t been many rumors surrounding Junior Guerra, Jimmy Nelson, and Zach Davies, the Brewers could attempt to take advantage of the market and trade all of these pitchers. Nelson probably wouldn’t get a huge return, but he could be a secondary piece in a larger deal such as Mike Fiers. Guerra and Davies, on the other hand, could be the centerpiece of any trade.

Guerra has had a phenomenal season thus far, and while he’s a risky pitcher to gamble on, so are Rich Hill, Andrew Cashner and Drew Pomeranz (who netted a quality return). Guerra hasn’t pitched to the level of Pomeranz and Hill this season, but he has been a top 30 pitcher. This is better than most pitchers currently on the market. He’s also under team control until 2022, unlike Hill who would only be a rental. Therefore, if teams think his performance is “real”, they could count on him pitching well for the next couple of years. If he falls apart after this season — a definite possibility — then Guerra is cheap enough that his contract won’t be an albatross, and teams could simply send him to the minors.

The White Sox are asking for a king’s ransom for Chris Sale, which is reasonable because he’s a top five pitcher in baseball and his contract is a bargain. Chris Archer, Sonny Gray, and Matt Moore have all been good pitchers in the past, definitely better than Guerra, but this year Guerra has been the better pitcher. It’s also unclear whether the Rays and the A’s would be willing to deal these pitchers considering they would be selling them at their lowest value. The Brewers could, therefore, take advantage of this by trying to trade Guerra. If a team is high enough on him, he just might be able to net a quality prospect or two in return.

Davies is probably the least likely to be traded, but if Stearns is feeling wild, he could try and get more prospects in return for the young right-hander. Davies would be one of the younger pitchers on the market, and would have a number of years of control. As mentioned before, the market for starting pitching is thin, and many of the pitchers available are also rentals. If a team wants a pitcher with control and is turned off by Guerra’s age, they could turn to Davies as he’s shown an ability to pitch quality innings at the big league level.

To be clear, I don’t think this will happen, but I don’t think the Brewers should be closed minded when it comes to Davies.

Jeffress and Smith, on the other hand, have been the product of many trade rumors, but these pitchers aren’t even the best relievers on the Brewers. That status goes to Tyler Thornburg. Thornburg actually has a better DRA than Aroldis Chapman, Craig Kimbrel, and Wade Davis. The Cubs paid a hefty price for Chapman, and it has been reported that it would take a larger return to net Davis.

If teams feel that the prices on Davis and Andrew Miller is too expensive, Thornburg could present a cheaper option. For the Brewers, this could be a chance to get a quality prospect in return. Obviously, the Brewers will want good value in return, as Thornburg has been excellent but they don’t need to get the Chapman package for the trade to be worthwhile, they only need to get something similar.

Trading Prospects:
When terms such as tanking or rebuilding get used, people usually associate it with trading major league ready talent. One of the reasons I think the Brewers are so interesting is that they could trade some of their prospects this deadline.

I don’t mean that this team will suddenly be a buyer, I don’t even mean that this team will trade prospects for major league ready talent, although they certainly could. What I mean is that the Brewers could use the depth in their farm system to net more talented prospects. When thinking about trades involving prospects, we usually associate it with a one-way street. Selling team trades big league asset, buying team trades prospects. This is generally the trend, but every now and then a team will include a prospect with the major league talent to net a better prospect return. For example, the Brewers could include prospects when trading Lucroy or another major league player in order to get better and more advanced prospects in return.

The reason the Brewers are such an interesting team is because they have the depth in their farm system to make these type of moves. As a number of people have noted, the Brewers farm system is much improved and has a lot of depth. A number of Brewers prospects are also far away from the majors. The Brewers could, therefore, use those resources in order to trade for a better prospect who’s perhaps closer to the majors. The Brewers could part with a prospect such as Demi Orimoloye, who’s been highly touted but at the same time is years away from the big leagues and has a lot of risk.

This could be a way for the Brewers to speed up their rebuild.

This wouldn’t simply benefit the Brewers. When teams trade for major league talent, they will sometimes sacrifice a lot of their depth in the minors. This could be a way for a team to acquire a major league asset, while at the same time gaining riskier assets in the minors. This would obviously mean that that team, would have to give up a better prospect, but if a team is high enough on a player such as Orimoloye, including him in the deal may make the trade work.

If anything, Stearns has shown a savvy ability to acquiring talent. I don’t anticipate that savviness to suddenly go away this deadline. We could, therefore, see Stearns make a number of shrewd moves in the next couple of days as the market seems to be ripe for the taking.

Related Reading:
The Almost-Trade of Carlos Gomez
Brett Phillips: Newest Future Brewer
An Ode to the Uniquely Bright Carlos Gomez
All-Aboard the Jungmann-Santana Express
The Player-Hader’s Ball

Keeping this in mind, it is worth looking at the development of each player involved in the Mets’ and Astros’ bids for Carlos Gomez in 2015. The Mets non-trade for Gomez gave fans a rare look into the different types of offers that front offices can field for a player (or set of players), highlighting the difficulty of determining the most valuable trade in an industry where value can move in many different directions. Yet if this lesson was instantly available in 2015, the trade also offers even more intriguing lessons one year later. Even if a team executes a solid trade, they may need patience to await results that match the expected value of that trade. With that in mind, it is worth analyzing the 2016 campaigns of the Gomez trades.

The Trade Assets
Both Carlos Gomez and Mike Fiers underscore the reality that established MLB players can also have rough years,and non-linear paths to success. In 2016, Fiers and Gomez are each having rough years for the Astros, although both for different reasons. Be it for injury (Gomez) or inconsistency (Fiers), the headliners of the Brewers’ biggest 2015 trade exemplify the struggles of the prospects and other players involved, for both the Mets and the new Brewers farmhands. Almost everyone involved in either version of the Gomez deal is worse off in 2016, which is a great opportunity to showcase the difficulties involved with player development.

For Gomez, the elite power/speed centerfielder is finally warming up after an injury-plagued early season. Gomez landed on the disabled list with a ribcage injury, although he was ailing prior to that, too. His .185 / .246 / .250 batting line entering June does not tell the full story for Gomez. Since returning, Gomez has flashed some of those tools that make him an elite threat, posting five homers and five stolen bases over his last 169 PA. However, Gomez is not otherwise hitting the ball, as the veteran is struggling with a .230 AVG and 47 strikeouts over that same time period. One can squint and see the old Gomez building back up, however, and as Gomez continues to get back into his groove, he can build on his power, speed, and walks.

Fiers has shifted his approach toward off-speed pitching in 2016, after earning his name as a one-of-a-kind fastballer. According to Brooks Baseball, Fiers selected his rising or cut fastball more than 65 percent of his 2015 pitches; that rate is down below 55 percent this year. In place of the rising and cut fastballs, Fiers has doubled his slider usage and significantly increased his change up selections. Almost across the board, Fiers is allowing more groundballs, line drives, and fly balls within in repertoire, in place of the whiffs he saw in 2015. It’s tough to pick a culprit for his increased home run rate, as his homers are up on the primary fastball, cutter, slider, and change. It’s not as though Fiers has been bad across the board, however, as the righty is managing to shift between quality and rough outings. His 5.05 DRA paces him approximately five runs below average for Minute Maid Park, which is still respectable for a back rotation profile.

The Mets Players

RHP Zack Wheeler
The New York Times published a detailed discussion of Zack Wheeler’s elbow surgery rehabilitation over the weekend. Wheeler was to be the prize of the Brewers / Mets version of the Gomez trade, a high-rotation potential that would be worth the injury risk and (hopefully) offering much more immediate value than a pitching prospect. Despite a March 2015 surgery date, Wheeler has yet to work in a game in the Mets system during 2016, and only has a few bullpen sessions to his name.

For that potential, one dreams on the running 95-96 MPH fastball and deep breaking pitch repertoire, which helped land Wheeler atop the stacked Mets organizational chart for Baseball Prospectus in 2013. Wheeler, once lauded as one of the best right-handed pitching prospects and a Top 5 overall prospect, now has the risk side of that gambling equation speak louder than the potential reward. Yet, the Mets eagerly await his return, as the righty could serve as a valuable stretch addition for an injury-plagued rotation if he returns to games in time.

• 2016 Impact: N/A (Yet to pitch).
• Future Impact: 3 years arbitration control; Role unknown

UTIL Wilmer Flores
In the middle of May, it looked like Wilmer Flores might join his teammate in the category of “Injured Potential.” The flexible infielder suffered a hamstring injury, and was batting .180 / .255 / .280 when he hit the DL. Since arriving from the disabled list, however, Flores has turned around his performance for the Mets while also serving a crucial role as a utility starting infielder. This rare role has produced a -2.5 FRAA, but one might place an asterisk next to that number to note the fielder’s positional flexibility.

At the plate, Flores is maintaining a strong contact and discipline profile since his injury. With 11 walks and 15 extra base hits (nine homers) in 145 plate appearances, Flores is further strengthening that .282 AVG. This stretch of improvement has resulted in Flores’s most valuable offensive season of his career with a .314 TAv. BaseballProspectus noted that Flores could have heavy pressure on his bat if he landed at 1B, but the 2013 #5 Mets prospect may now possess that elusive above average in-game power.

• 2016 Impact: 1.3 WARP (.314 TAv, -2.5 FRAA)
• Future Impact: 3 years arbitration control; power bat infielder/1B.

The Astros Return

RF Domingo Santana
The biggest contrast between the Mets and Astros package was the future-oriented aspect of the Houston offering (with much less immediate access to that potential). In the context of that package, Domingo Santana was the least risky trade return, in the sense that the powerful right fielder had already cracked the big leagues. However, the MLB future of Santana had many question marks, especially in terms of Santana’s contact within the strike zone. Upon entering Milwaukee’s batting order, Santana instantly won admirers with a .299 TAv and enough walks to offset those strike outs. Santana had nothing left to prove at AAA, so the Brewers traded established left fielder Khris Davis to Oakland to open a roster spot for Santana (thereby doubling down on organizational future potential).

Unfortunately, Santana has struggled with injuries throughout the bulk of the 2016 season. These struggles include a recent setback that truncated Santana’s rehab stint. On the field, the right fielder continued the extremely high walk and strike out profile at the plate, but lacked the home run punch in irregular playing time. Still, a .278 TAv is not dreadful, especially as one considers that the 23 year old’s longest stretch of uninterrupted starts yielded only 100 PA. One could be inclined to argue that Santana’s injury riddled season hurts the Brewers in the sense that Milwaukee still has to answer his question mark in 2017, but that’s hardly a complaint given Santana’s positive bursts since coming to Milwaukee.

• 2016 Impact: 0.5 WARP (missed 56 team games thus far)
• Future Impact: Remains under reserve (approximately 1 year, 79 days service after 2016); Three True Outcomes starting right fielder

CF Brett Phillips
If Santana was the least risky prospect returned in the trade, Phillips was arguably the headliner, as the athletic CF annihilated Advanced A ball and had already earned a promotion to AA within the Astros system. 2015 BaseballProspectus scouting reports of Phillips generally painted a potential five average tool (at least) profile, even though both observers disagreed about the potential hit and power tools (50 / 50 vs. 55 / 45). Phillips’s glove and arm drove the outfielder’s value, however, largely leaving most to believe that he could start in centerfield.

Phillips’s 2016 campaign at AA Biloxi is not as thrilling as his 2015 efforts for that club, as the left-handed bat has found his game power and maintained his walk profile while also enduring a brutal slump. Over the weekend, Phillips snapped a nine game hitless streak, which was part of a prolonged .143 / .271 / .275 slump over 109 PA. Even during that slump, Phillips’s bright spots shone, as the 22 year old collected seven extra base hits and 16 walks. Now, Phillips has a chance to show that he can endure professional difficulty and respond by making adjustments and showcasing that hit tool along with his others.

• 2016 Impact: 1.52 WARP (.273 TAv, -2.6 FRAA. Overall 37th of 81 200+ PA Southern League)
• Competition: Youngest 30 percent of Southern League regulars (200+ PA median age 24); Top 40 percent competition (.690 opposing OPS). [Translation: Phillips is notably young for his league and is facing relatively tough competition.]
• Future Impact: Full reserve control; Toolsy starting centerfielder.

LHP Josh Hader
There is an argument to be made that Josh Hader was the biggest riser among the Brewers prospects returned in the Gomez / Fiers deal, given the lefty’s 50 K / 11 BB / 3 GR performance over his seven games in Biloxi during 2015. The debate about Hader is well-known to BPMilwaukee readers by now: despite a legitimate high velocity fastball from the south side, some combination of off-speed stuff, command, and/or delivery (arm slot) caused many to question whether Hader will be a starter or elite reliever.

Hader has hit some road bumps since earning his 2016 promotion to AAA Colorado Springs, but the southpaw still looks like someone who may force their way into a September call-up. Of course, the youngest age of any Pacific Coast League regular pitcher (50+ IP) in 2016 is 23, so the 22 year old Hader is almost absurdly young for that advanced league. The strike out profile has not left in this advanced league, either, even if Hader is showing some issues with command while pitching in the Rockies. Even if the role is not predetermined, Hader will probably receive every chance to start with the rebuilding Brewers.

• 2016 AA Impact: 2.14 FIP (top among Southern League regulars [45+ IP])
• AA Competition: Youngest 25 percent of Southern League regulars (45+ IP median age 24); second-weakest competition (.662 opposing OPS). [Translation: Despite being notably young for his league, Hader faced weak competition.]
• Future Impact: Full reserve control; High octane lefty.

RHP Adrian Houser
Adrian Houser was the least hyped among the prospects returned, but the righty earned a quick call-up to Milwaukee and Arizona Fall League placement (along with Hader). Last Friday, BPMilwaukee’s Kyle Lesniewski featured Houser in detail in his weekly prospect feature. Lesniewski highlights Houser’s “under the surface” improvements that preceded the righty’s Tommy John surgery.

• 2016 Impact: 3.67 FIP median among Southern League regulars (45+ IP median FIP of 3.66)
• Competition: Youngest 45 present of Southern League regulars (45+ IP median age 24); Top Third opposing difficulty among Southern League regulars (.695 opposingOPS). [Translation: Houser was near median age for his league, but faced notably difficult competition.]
• Future Impact: Injury risk increased; Role Unknown.