If you’re familiar with pitcher statistics, then you might have already heard of TRAA. It is a player’s ability — in this case, the catcher’s ability — to hold runners on base. In other words, do baserunners take off more or less often when a particular player is behind the dish? Inevitably, baserunners will attempt to steal no matter how superior a catcher’s ability to hold runners may be. With that in mind, SRAA measures a catcher’s propensity to throw runners out.

Following a similar format as Part 1, this article will look at what the rate stats say about Jonathan Lucroy, focusing on his ability to hold runners on base and throw them out when they attempt to steal. I will then explore how those rates translate to wins. Finally, I will compare Lucroy’s 2011 season — the best “pitch-framed” season there ever was — and see how his capacity to keep runners from stealing holds up against other catchers.

Holding the Runner

When looking at TRAA data for players that have played in the major leagues, some obvious catchers are at the top of the list. Over the span of an eleven-year career, Yadier Molina boasts a -0.72 percent takeoff rate above average. Steve Yeager also sits near the top of the list with a -0.59 percent TRAA. In other words, runners were less likely than average to take off against catchers such as these two. Intuitively, that makes sense. Where does Lucroy rank by comparison?

Over the last six seasons, Milwaukee’s man behind the plate has posted a .37 percent TRAA. With the league average TRAA being zero, Lucrory is worse than average when it comes to keeping men from taking off. In fact, when examining individual seasons, the only season in which Lucroy posted a better than average TRAA was in 2014 when he posted a -0.10 percent TRAA.

Despite being on the wrong side of the mean, there is some good news when the rate stat is convereted to runs. While he has not saved the Brewers runs by holding runners, he also has not cost the team any runs either. Over six seasons, Lucroy has had 8,324 chances to keep runners planted on their respective base. In that many chances, he has saved/cost the Brewers 0.0 runs.

Inevitably, though, the baserunners will attempt to steal a bag from the catcher. Let us take a look at Lucroy’s ability to throw men out.

Throwing from the Plate

Much like TRAA, the data for SRAA has some catchers that clearly come ahead of everyone else. Both Yadier Molina’s and Ivan Rodriguez’s, notable defensive greats, SRAA career marks make their way to the top of the pack. The data confirms what we’ve only been able to eyeball over the years. With an SRAA of -7.3 percent for Molina and -6.2 percent for Rodriguez, over the span of their careers, runners were least likely to successfully steal against either catcher. Unfortunately, the same cannot be said for Lucroy.

Similar to TRAA, the league average SRAA is zero. Lucroy comes in with a 0.95 percent swipe rate above average with six seasons played. Simply put, runners are more likely than average to successfully steal against Lucroy. There have only been two seasons in which he has been better than league average. In his first two seasons, 2010 and 2011, Lucroy posted a -1.4 percent and -0.05 percent SRAA, respectively. Since 2011, Lucroy has hovered above the league average.

In terms of runs saved, over the course of his career, our beloved catcher has cost the Brewers -2.8 runs. Without a doubt, swipe rate above average is Lucroy’s weakest area.

 Jonathan Lucroy: As a Whole

As Michael noted in Part 1, Lucroy is clearly a superior pitch framer. He boasts the best season ever framed going back to 1950! Aside from framing, however, Lucroy is at or near league average in blocked pitches, holding runners, and throwing out potential steals. It should be noted that being league average is not weighted equally for each stat. Again, as Michael pointed out, being slightly above replacement level in EPAA makes Lucroy worth almost one-third of a win of production. Conversely, being league average in SRAA has cost him nearly a third of a win of production. If we think about what is happening when a catcher is unsuccessful in SRAA — a runner advances to the next base — it makes sense that being at or below league average can cost more runs than pitch framing despite experiencing fewer chances of throwing a runner out.

Rare is the catcher that is overwhelmingly successful in all four stats.

Since 1950, there have only been eight catchers that have garnered over 10 wins of production from catching alone. Only four have produced at least one win from throwing out would be base-stealers. Fewer still are able to generate more than a quarter of a win simply by holding the runners. What seems to truly define an elite catcher is their ability to influence the call on pitches.

Considering that he will be catching a much younger pitching corps in 2016, in light of what Catchella has revealed, there is a new found appreciation to be had for Jonathan Lucroy.

While there have been some attempts to measure a catcher’s control of the running game (rSB for Stolen Base Runs Saved) in Defensive Runs Saved, metrics as comprehensive as SRAA and TRAA do a much fairer job. StatCorner has had success measuring catcher’s framing abilities and turning that into RAA, but BP’s CSAA can now be folded into WARP. ESPN released an attempt to measure the ability to call a game that crowned A.J. Ellis as king. With game-calling being so difficult to quantify, Baseball Prospectus’ Catchella opted for the more reasonable ability to block pitches in EPAA. Add all four together and we are much closer to a more comprehensive understanding a catcher’s contributions to the game through wins above replacement than we’ve ever been before.

However, what brought us here wasn’t an explanation of the statistics. [Their methodology will be laid out expertly already in posts on the main site.] Instead, we’re more concerned where Jonathan Lucroy ranks compared to his peers.

Jonathan Lucroy: Behind the Dish

In this first part, you will learn how Lucroy stacks up to the competition. However, more specifically, this post will analyze how Lucroy performed in two key areas: CSAA and EPAA. Part two, which is authored by Xavier Alatorre, will be taking a more in-depth look at Lucroy’s SRAA and TRAA — more broadly, his ability to prevent greedy baserunners.

This article will solely focus on Lucroy’s job behind the plate. The job he could do hypothetically — though I wouldn’t suggest it — without his throwing arm. CSAA stands for Called Strikes Above Average. It, as you may have already intuited, measures a catcher’s ability to frame pitches. Turning balls into strikes has been the catching hot topic for the last half-decade as framing has entered somewhat of a golden age. EPAA stands for Errant Pitches Above Average. It measures a catcher’s ability to block wild pitches or prevent passed balls. Arguably the newest idea of the four to quantify.

What do the rate stats say about Lucroy?

It depends. Let’s start with the overall picture. There’s no way that Lucroy — who has six seasons in the big leagues — will place anywhere near the top, right?

By the rate version of CSAA — which we know to be reliable back until 1988 — Lucroy ranks third. The catcher we’ve watched grow up in the Milwaukee Brewers organization is the third-best framing catcher since 1988.

There are a couple quick things to take away from this, though. First, Lucroy is still young, so his rate statistics will be somewhat higher than what would otherwise be expected. By this, I mean that Lucroy hasn’t progressed far enough into his aging curve to see his defensive prowess regress with deteriorating abilities. Aging isn’t kind to any baseball player, but especially catchers. Second, this passes a very general eye-test. The players Lucroy is ranked around — Christian Vazquez, Yasmani Grandal, Jose Molina — are known in narrative as elite defensive catchers. We can better trust these numbers because they already jive with the general consensus.

What about by EPAA? As for blocking errant pitches, Lucroy ranks just barely above the mean. EPAA — which uses components that we can trust all the way back to 1950 — isn’t as kind to Lucroy. However, that’s not bad news, as his ability is right around Buster Posey’s level. Furthermore, he has still saved his team runs this way. Other names around that rank are Yan Gomes, Gary Carter, and Craig Biggio.

But how many runs has that translated into?

Where does Lucroy actually rank?

Rate stats are immensely fun, but converting them into runs saved and, eventually, wins gained is the real entertaining part.

Starting with EPAA, Lucroy has saved the Brewers 3.2 runs worth of errant pitches. While that doesn’t sound like a lot, let’s put that into context. Lucroy has had 26,641 chances in the big leagues to block errant pitches. As previously discussed, he’s done so at basically a league-average rate. However, given that many chances of being just barely better than the mean grants you nearly one-third of a win of production, just in preventing errant pitches.

For further context, remember that Gary Carter’s rate score was similar? If they stay similar going forward and Lucroy accumulates as many chances as Carter — a whopping 75,678 — the Brewers catcher could surpass the Montreal Expos great for ninth all-time. That’s right, Carter is ninth in all-time EPAA, right behind Jason Varitek and right ahead of Yogi Berra. What an amazing list!

Which brings us to the CSAA. How many actual runs has Lucroy’s framing ability generated? His CSAA already ranks among the best, but are his attempts enough? Lucroy’s framing ability has saved the Brewers 161.2 total runs. That’s good enough for fifth all-time. Behind the very elite company of Jose Molina, Brad Ausmus, Russell Martin, and Brian McCann. That’s correct: Yadier Molina.

The crescendo of this symphony

Career measures aren’t all, though. Catchella has been separated into all-time great seasons as well. And if the above hasn’t already given you a new appreciation for Lucroy, it’s time to re-calibrate once more.

In 2011, Lucroy posted the best-ever mark in CSAA yet to be measured. He saved 49.8 runs with his framing alone. Nearly five wins worth! Second place isn’t really even that close. Brian McCann’s 2008 campaign ranks second at 41.1 runs and his 2007 season is third at 37.8 runs.

Whether that’s enough to make 2011 the best season by a catcher ever or not will have to be settled in Part II.