There are methodological shortcomings to both scouting and statistical reports. Scouting reports have shortcomings in terms of potential observer biases or preferences, limited looks (even some organizations draft a player after only one look), and privileged information (or, at times, even intentional asymmetrical information from clandestine “sources”); statistics are impacted by all the contextual factors present at the MLB level, but perhaps even moreso age, quality of competition, developmental cycle (i.e., first trip to a level), and proprietary development assignments that will typically be unknown to external observers. These factors diminish the meaning of minor league statistis.

BPMilwaukee benefits from work with the Baseball Prospectus scouting team, which consistently uses a radical “eyes in the field” approach to drive scouting reports that are therefore often divergent from, and perhaps less hype-worthy (a good thing), than many industry competitors. (One example here would be the 2016 approach to RHPs Brandon Woodruff and Phil Bickford, compared to sources like FanGraphs and BaseballAmerica). To supplement reports, which can be gathered from BP player pages and daily prospect summaries published on the website, statistical analysis can be applied to index contextual factors that could impact the perception of a player’s performance. To this end, I will publish a two part series detailing the contextual factors impacting Brewers regular (or semiregular) batting and pitching minor leaguers, which should hopefully add information to the use of scouting lines throughout the offseason.

I choose the method of indexing statistics because it is relatively straightforward in terms of user interface: every metric can be measured against a “constant” or comparison variable, such as “Player Total Average (TAv)” versus “League TAv.” In an index, 1.00 can basically be read as “average,” for it means that a player’s metric perfectly matches the comparison metric. For example, Outfield Michael Reed played during his age-24 season at Class-AA Biloxi, and the Southern League had a median age of 24; therefore, Reed’s age index is 1.00 (after all these years, Reed is still not “old” for advanced minor league ball).

For system wide reference, here is a key:

For this exercise, I indexed Age, TAv, Opposing OPS (oppOPS), and Park Factor statistics drawn from Baseball Prospectus CSV (retrieved September 13, 2017). These categories do not exhaust the information available, but they are arguably foundations for measuring the typical quality of the regular players in the league, the quality of opposing pitchers, and any extreme (or not) park environments. Note that I did not focus on Rookie classes (Pioneer League, Arizona League, or Dominican Summer League), as those leagues are not only (arguably) more instructional in nature but also representative of professionals at their earliest stages of development (therefore, I am not quite certain what Rookie class stats “say”).

I used two methods:

• Once I created an Index for each of these statistics, I weighted each player’s OPS by assessing it against the Opposing OPS quality and contextual factors. Again, 1.00 can be read as average; below 1.00 can be read as below average, while above 1.00 can be read as better than average.
• To provide a quality control for this rudimentary method, I used a basic TAv Index. Since Total Average is already scaled to many contextual factors, it more accurately reflects a player’s performance within a specific run, park, and league environment (certainly moreso than OPS).
• By using a 50 Plate Appearance cut off, I captured 72 batting seasons performed by 63 Brewers minor leaguers.

A few observations:

• The very best statistical performances within the minor league system have varying degrees of scouting support. Keston Hiura, for example, was advertised as one of the best bats in the 2017 Draft (perhaps the most advanced college bat, even), and Hiura indeed scorched the Midwest League to the tune of a .326 TAv; he did so while being young for his league (during his first pro go-around), facing solid to slightly-tough opponents, and a moderate park environment. Jake Gatewood may have been the surprise breakout of the season, combining new contact lenses and mechanical advancements to pummel both Class-Advanced A and Class-AA leagues. Monte Harrison was another strong tools prospect – really, a fantastic athlete – that finally played a healthy season. Harrison and Gatewood diverge in terms of the type of Overall Future Potential roles they have, but here they converge in making great strides in showcasing their tools in 2017. On the other hand, Troy Stokes does not necessarily have the full scouting pedigree behind his statistical performance, which makes his 2017 season eye opening in terms of assessing an organizational depth role. Garrett Cooper was advanced minor league depth who went on to post a .275 TAv in 45 injury-shortened PA with the Yankees.

• Much has been made of the disappointing season by the much-hyped gang of Carolina bats (Corey Ray, Lucas Erceg, Isan Diaz, and Trent Clark). However, it should be underscored that they did not actually have bad seasons. At worst, they had arguably average seasons when considering their age and developmental status (each facing a new league the first time through). However, what is interesting is that each player has new scouting reports on potential flaws that could indeed impact Overall Future Potential; for example, a midseason 2017 eyewitness report downgraded Ray’s role, and several other members of the prospect team confirmed hit tool concerns throughout the season. This type of scouting concern cycle was repeated for several of these prospects, but it is worth nothing this was also scouts’ first full look at Corey Ray and Lucas Erceg. In this case, one ought to hold the conclusions on statistical and scouting assessments for another season, as more information will be necessary to understand these potential shortcomings. Anyway, hold the hype (and really, be healthy about hype in the first place!).

• There are a ton of interesting sleepers around here. Some interesting reports are floating around regarding infielder Wendell Rijo, for example, but the second baseman has never really flashed the stats. This year, Rijo graded solidly both in terms of contextual OPS and TAv. Clint Coulter remained young for his level (Class-AA Biloxi in 2017), and posted some intriguing peripheral statistics to go along with his overall solid line. Granted, there are few emerging reports on either of these players yet, which leaves room for a healthy dose of skepticism about future role. But, it’s worth remembering that many of these guys are so young when drafted that they remain young even through several repeated stages of Advanced ball development; hanging around at that upper level, one wonders what might come of a guy like Coulter after Garrett Cooper received trade interest.

• In terms of melding scouting pedigree and performance, Brett Phillips might have the best season of any Brewers prospect. While many viewed his 2016 campaign as a disappointment, there were several aspects of Phillips’s game that exhibited strengths even through the perceived weaknesses of his stat line. Of course, Phillips was also quite young for his level. The intriguing “elite”-4th Outfielder-to-potential CF or RF starter put it all together in 2017, including a couple of stunning cups of coffee in the MLB (including a 2-for-4, three RBI night with an Outfield Assist against the Pirates on Wednesday). Hiura has the flashiest immediate hype and performance, but Phillips’s full season production and realization of one aspect of his MLB future could arguably win him “Best Bat” of the system for 2017. I gather that someone like Monte Harrison most deserves a “Player of the Year” Award, but Phillips should not be discounted when considering the Brewers system’s best players.

Midseason 2016 #1
Midseason 2016 #2
Midseason 2016 #3

Three Up

CF Lewis Brinson, Class-AAA Colorado Springs
With Keon Broxton struggling at the big league level, the clamoring has already begun for Milwaukee’s #1 prospect to make his debut at Miller Park. Brinson’s blistering start for the Sky Sox has only made the cries louder. He missed a few games after jamming a finger sliding into second base, but the center fielder is batting .355/.412/.649 with two home runs and three doubles in 34 plate appearances for a ridiculous .371 TAv. Unless Broxton starts to figure things out at the plate in short order, expect to see Brinson up sometime around the end of May or beginning of June. From BP’s Steve Givarz:

“We’ve talked a lot about Brinson, and rightfully so. He has tools and impact potential in center field, plus he has also cut down on his strikeouts. All of this could force Milwaukee’s hand sooner rather than later.”

C Mario Feliciano, Class-A Wisconsin
The Brewers picked Feliciano as a 17-year old prep player in the Competitive Balance Round B of last summer’s draft. The young backstop had an unimpressive debut statistically in the Arizona League, but Milwaukee’s front office saw enough to give him an aggressive assignment all the way to full-season ball to start the 2017 season. Feliciano has responded by pounding the ball to the tune of a .378/.425/.622 slash with a homer, a triple, and four doubles in 40 plate appearances for a .385 TAv. There’s work to be done defensively, as there usually is with high school catchers, but the bat might be able to play at other positions if a move out from behind the plate is needed. From BP’s Steve Givarz:

“Taken in the Competitive Balance “B” Round in 2016, Feliciano has been one of the hottest hitters in the Midwest League thus far. He offers power, bat speed, and feel to hit at the plate with an advanced approach. He’s athletic behind the plate—enough so that he could handle being moved off catcher—but is a project defensively. His receiving is raw and his transfers can be sloppy, but the bat looks pretty special.”

IF Jake Gatewood, Class-Advanced A Carolina
The Brewers signed Gatewood to an overslot deal after picking him 41st overall in 2014, hoping that his hitting skills would develop to match his plus raw power. It’s taken a few years, but it appears the 21 year old might finally be coming around. After hitting .240/.268/.391 with 14 home runs and 18 walks in 126 games at Wisconsin last year, Gatewood revamped his stance and approach at the plate. From last season:

And now in 2017:

Jake Gatewood base hit with new & improved stance. #Mudcats pic.twitter.com/rLOo0ABEOQ

— Brewers Prospects (@BrewerProspect) April 14, 2017

Gatewood is now more crouched at the plate and has lowered his hand positioning pretty significantly, and the early results are extremely encouraging. Through 50 plate appearances, Gatewood is slashing .310/.420/.476 with a home run, four doubles, and perhaps most importantly, eight base on balls. Lucas Erceg’s presence in Zebulon has pushed Gatewood mostly to first base, but he retains a solid corner utility profile overall defensively. If he can sustain the improvements in his approach, Gatewood may finally be on his way to fulfilling the tremendous potential scouts placed on him when he was drafted.

Three Down

SS Gilbert Lara, Class-A Wisconsin
Three years after signing for a $3.2 mil bonus, Gilbert Lara still has yet to look like much more than a cautionary tale for handing out big checks to 16 year olds. Lara managed only a .220 TAv last season in Helena, but the Brewers still advanced him to full season ball in Wisconsin to start 2017. Thus far in 33 plate appearances, he’s batting an anemic .125/.152/.250 with a single long ball. He’s struck out 11 times versus drawing just one walk. Lara’s calling card when he was signed was his incredible power potential, but scouts have panned both his approach and swing mechanics, which haven’t allowed Lara to tap into the power with any sort of regularity. Once considered one of Milwaukee’s top prospects, Lara looks to be little more than a wild card at this point. At just 19 years old, however, time is still very much on Lara’s side.

Gilbert Lara is hitting .125/.152/.250 (and not starting every game), if you're wondering if his swing or plate discipline have improved.

— J.P. Breen (@JP_Breen) April 20, 2017

OF Trent Clark, Class-Advanced A Carolina
Clark was Milwaukee’s first round pick back in 2015 and has dealt with some unfortunate injuries that have robbed him of critical development time during his first two years as a professional. Healthy coming into this season, he was assigned to Carolina to be featured as a part of the Mudcats’ loaded roster. Clark’s hit tool was considered to be very advanced when he was drafted, but thus far the lefty-swinger is batting just .200/.348/.343 with a 32 percent strikeout rate in 47 plate appearances in 2017. That, after posting a .231 average and 26 percent punchout rate in 59 games at low-A Wisconsin last year. Clark has middling power and his lackluster arm will likely push him to left field if he can’t stick in center, so the fact that his purported carrying tool has yet to really show through as a professional is no doubt discouraging. With so many other talented outfielders in the system, Clark may soon get lost in the shuffle. From Baseball America’s Kyle Glaser:

“Clark let multiple balls drop playing both right field and center field, earning derision from scouts in attendance who criticized his motor and effort.”

OF Clint Coulter, Class-AA Biloxi
One of Milwaukee’s two first-rounders in 2012 (along with Victor Roache), it looked like the club might have had something special in Coulter after he captured the org’s Minor League Player of the Year award in 2014. Things haven’t worked out that way in the few years since then, however. Coulter was forced to move off of catcher to right field and struggled offensively in the harsh environs of the Florida State League for 2015 and most of 2016, though a .306 TAv in 102 late-season plate appearances for Biloxi last year offered a glimmer of hope. That success hasn’t carried over into 2017, however, as Coulter is off to a .169/.219/.200 start with seven strikeouts and one walk through his first 32 plate appearances. Coulter lacks a good feel for hitting and can struggle to recognize breaking stuff, which will allow more advanced pitchers to continue to exploit him. Combine that with reportedly below-average defense in the outfield and you have the makings of a first-round bust.

Continuing age-based analysis of minor league statistics, the 2016 Midwest League could be the most interesting case yet. Unlike the Southern League or Pacific Coast League, the Midwest League featured a group of three different age levels with similar production, and two adjacent age groups that did not fall far. From age-21 to age-22 to age-23 players, Midwest League bats slashed .245 / .316 / .356, .249 / .318 / .352, and .247 / .317 / .353, respectively. On the outskirts, age-20 batted .249 / .307 / .367 while age-24 batted .252 / .315 / .333, giving the league an expansive middle ground of 345 players that can be judged by very similar production standards.

One might ask whether this reflects the nascent stages of minor league competition, perhaps where players may be closer to the same development curve, thereby exhibiting less stratification among minor league players. Perhaps Class-A is the first level at which “organizational lifers” emerge, or players hit their first professional ceiling and stick around for a year or two before heading to their next career. It would be worthwhile digging into a scouting explanation for this phenomenon, in order to see how the physical tools relate to the statistics; perhaps everyone (or almost everyone) at Class-A is still learning the strike zone, or pitch recognition, or some foundational trait that places the vast majority of players on the same level.

There are a number of notable bats that defined the Timber Rattlers in 2016. Isan Diaz produced one of the best seasons at the Class-A level, and although he did not win MVP, he certainly has the performance level worthy of consideration. Lucas Erceg also stormed the league out of the 2016 draft, demonstrating a completely different developmental stage (relatively polished college draftee) than Diaz. Along with Diaz and Erceg, several depth players produced interesting or good seasons, giving fans and writers more players to think about and watch during the 2017 campaign. Perhaps no one will be more interesting to follow than Monte Harrison, whose statistical line was damaged by a rough April and early-May, and whose hot streak was cut short by injury. Harrison has shown flashes of “putting it together,” so it will be crucial to see how he returns from injury.

Down in Florida, the Brevard County club had a rough season, mostly due to the bats. This level lagged behind in the system during 2016, and unfortunately, even age-based statistics do not allow one to reconsider many gems.

It is worth noting that Corey Ray produced a fine campaign, based on his age level and the fact that he was making his professional debut in an aggressive assignment. While Ray’s surface stats of .247 / .307 / .385 does not look very good, age-21 players in the Florida State League were notably worse than that production level, allowing one to see that Ray showed solid hitting, discipline, and (especially) strong isolated slugging. Even if one follows scouting reports to raise some questions about the hit tool, there is a sense that Ray’s tools are already showing up in his stat line, even if that line is depressed by his environment.

2016 Southern League
I am opening this ongoing series by discussing the Southern League, since the Brewers have a number of top trade acquisitions assigned at their Class-AA Biloxi affiliate. Furthermore, general fan and press sentiment suggests that many of these players had disappointing seasons. This tough, dismissive judgment seems suspicious when one considers important details like Jacob Nottingham gaining the ability to work behind the dish and stick at catcher (thereby strengthening his overall value and development); personally, I would peg Nottingham as a clear Top Five prospect candidate in the system, given the overall projection of his power and the increasing understanding that the youngster has the ability to play catcher.

This is not something that someone would immediately conclude from Nottingham’s .234 / .295 / .347 AVG / OBP / SLG batting line. Yet, compared solely to age-21 prospects in the Southern League, Nottingham carried one of the heaviest workloads, produced a batting line that was near-average for age-21 players, and demonstrated better than average isolated power. A skeptic might accuse me of using statistics to put lipstick on a pig, but in fact digging into the context of Nottingham’s season shows much more value in his batting line than one might initially expect; coupled within his defensive progress, that’s a fine season for a player that is three years younger than his league’s median age.

What is quite interesting in the Southern League this year is that batting performance fluctuates quite wildly by age, as pitchers taking the plate and late season call-ups, part time players, or MLB players rehabbing injuries impact the proceedings. Simply looking at the list of players working in AA at any given time shows the hodge-podge composition of that level, and the Southern League is no different; there are 19-year old standouts like Ozhaino Albies, second chance 22-year olds like Tyrone Taylor, somewhat stalling (on the surface) names like Billy McKinney, and lots of AA veterans and organizational depth (like Nick Ramirez or Dustin DeMuth, for instance).

For this exercise, I isolated players with more than five PA. This may sound arbitrary, and in some cases it is, but an empirical glance at the list suggested that this was a reasonable cut-off to include rehabs, short call-ups, and other oddities (as well as pitchers batting), while also isolating performances like would skew data too far in the other direction (such as 0 or 1 PA performances).

Against their age group, one can now more fully judge the Brewers Class-AA 2016 campaigns. First, let’s look at the young guys:

Placing these seasons in context should illuminate a few points:

• Brett Phillips had quite a good season, even considering his slump and other issues at the plate.
• Good grief, Domingo Santana is young. Sometimes it’s easy to forget how young these guys are once they make the MLB; Santana is young even for the Southern League, let alone MLB!
• Note that someone like Tyrone Taylor, who is basically forgotten among the luxurious OF prospects returned via trade, actually had quite a solid season for his age.
• These statistics only cover the surface of judging these players’ contextual seasons, but this should be a start to offset some of the more dismissive press these players are receiving from other sources.

Here are some of the older depth players on the Shuckers:

Given the stacked young minors and top prospects that the Brewers need to fit onto their 40-man roster, it is difficult to judge whether these guys will make the MLB with Milwaukee. However, some of these players have traits that may catch with other organizations, should they find themselves out of Brewers navy come winter. A player like Kyle Wren is particularly interesting; many fans wanted to see Wren called up, but if Wren did not make the MLB in a depth OF capacity in 2015 or 2016, it’s difficult to see him protected now that the club has many other choices for the offseason.

Related Reading:
3 Up 3 Down: Gatewood / Nottingham / Phillips

Key Promotions
Recently, some of the most intriguing arms in the Brewers system received promotions.

RHP Marcos Diplan has been transferred to Brevard Cty. RHP Kaleb Earls has been placed on the DL. RHP Trey Supak transferred to Wisconsin

— Brewers Player Dev (@BrewersPD) July 10, 2016

#Brewers have promoted RHP Angel Ventura to @BiloxiShuckers and RHP Freddy Peralta to @BCManatees.

— Tom (@Haudricourt) July 9, 2016

This year’s A Wisconsin affiliate has simply been stacked with arms, so much so that one might have forgotten about Marcos Diplan. Within the system, Miguel Diaz and Jon Perrin stormed the stage (although these RHP are both interesting for different reasons) as homegrown arms, and Freddy Peralta (also in Brevard County now) stepped forward to put a face with those names returned in the Adam Lind trade. So, Diplan stood as one of the earliest “rebuilding” trade returns in Milwaukee’s system, but the teenager struck out 89 of 295 batters faced. Questions about Diplan’s size and secondary stuff at times lead one to expect a bullpen profile for the righty, but those huge strike out profiles make even that outcome appear more exciting.

Trey Supak was something of a lottery ticket return as a part of the Jason Rogers trade, even if he ultimately has a frame and some tools worth projecting. Recovering from a previous injury, Supak faced a potentially brief 2016 campaign, but the righty has impressed by making quick work of R Helena: an 11 strikeout / 1 walk campaign preceded Supak’s promotion to Wisconsin, where the 20 year old will look to prove himself against older, full season talent. While Diplan and Supak have completely different frames, development patterns, and injury histories, it’s somewhat tempting to place Supak’s risk category in the same realm as Diplan: you’ve got to dream on the tools as a starter, but there’s still a lot to like even in a relief profile.

In the season of Junior Guerra’s stunning MLB success, non-linear developmental patterns should become an area of further analysis. While Angel Ventura’s path has not meandered in the same way that Guerra’s did, the righty spent three seasons in the Brewers Dominican Summer League before coming to the United States. It’s easy to dismiss Ventura as an “old” prospect in some sense, then, but the righty has consistently posted solid strike out rates in both A Wisconsin and A+ Brevard County. Now, while he’s working in AA Biloxi, the 6’2″ prospect continues to serve as underrated organizational depth, this time only a couple of steps away from the MLB. While all eyes are rightfully on Orlando Arcia to officially judge the retooled Milwaukee International system a success, Ventura could also serve as a success story and a lesson about patience in player development.

Three Up
Jon Perrin, A+ Brevard County (Kyle Lesniewski): While Brewers fans might rightfully focus on the aggressive assignment for RHP Cody Ponce out of the 2015 draft, his 27th round counterpart Jon Perrin has forced his way to the same level in 2016. Kyle Lesniewski previously featured Perrin at BPMilwaukee, tempering expectations from his A Wisconsin dominance by noting the righty’s age and rotational profile. Now, with eleven games under his belt in Brevard County, the extreme strike out / walk profile looks good (19 percent / five percent). While it’s tough to lay off of the Mike Fiers comparisons given Perrin’s size, depth status, and draft profile, one must watch the righty’s flyball rate, as that may be the most important comparison and aspect of Perrin’s game to define his advancement.

Franly Mallen, R Helena (Nicholas Zettel): Before there was Gilbert Lara, Milwaukee’s big International smash, there was Franly Mallen, a much less hyped but arguably as interesting prospect for the Brewers system. When Mallen was signed, reports did not necessarily highlight a standout tool, although some scouts reportedly looked for projectable power. Last year was arguably a type of breakout for Mallen, in the sense that he received one of the most aggressive promotions out of the Dominican Summer League from the Brewers front office. Mallen has done nothing but rake in Helena, boasting TAv of .366 and .311 (at age 19, now, no less). The youngster is already off of shortstop, which could speak more to the jampacked shortstop position in the system than Mallen’s glove, but it remains to be seen if this move is permanent. Even so fans can salivate at the Javier Betancourt / Wendell Rijo / Isan Diaz / Franly Mallen potential pipeline at second base, if that move is permanent.

Nate Orf, AAA Colorado Springs (James Fisher): At every turn, when the Brewers system improved in 2015, most of the hype went to players like Orlando Arcia and Jorge Lopez. But Nate Orf, an undrafted free agent signed by the Brewers in 2013, also carried his production to AA Biloxi last year, earning a spot in the Arizona Fall League. James Fisher called Orf a “utility guy that can really hit.  Under the radar guy that will be a big leaguer, [and] deserves some recognition.” True to form, Orf is posting a .294 TAv while playing second base, third base, and shortstop in Colorado Springs. Should the Brewers make as many trades as one might expect during the deadline crunch, fans and analysts should look out for the 26 year old Orf in Brewers blue, solidifying the multifaceted infielder as a true Bruce Seid era success story.

Three Down
Gilbert Lara, R Helena (Nicholas Zettel): It seems roundly unfair to place Lara in this category (if anything, it’s an argument against prospect bonus hype): the 18 year old only has instructional ball and 344 plate appearances in the USA as his professional experience, and has a long way to go to reach his toolsy projections. BaseballProspectus ranked Lara fifth in the Brewers system due to his immense talent, with power being the calling card here. Those tools simply have not shown up in games yet, as Lara works to define his plate discipline and approach.

Wei-Chung Wang, AA Biloxi (James Fisher): Don’t look now, but just as soon as we brainstormed this feature, Wei-Chung Wang looks to be on another second half surge. James noted that Wang’s stuff is backing up, and also noted that the strike out / walk profile is not ideal. Once again, Wang has his work cut out for him, as the southpaw will arguably need to stabilize his up-again, down-again organizational status as he tries to convince the Milwaukee front office to protect him from the Rule 5 draft this autumn.

Clint Coulter, A+ Brevard County (Kyle Lesniewski): Last year, some fans and analysts clamored about the placement of Coulter within year-end prospect lists, as the catcher-turned-right fielder’s stock fell. The rough times in Brevard County continued in 2016. This time around, one might point to Coulter’s notably below average competition (.673 opposing OPS, placing Coulter’s competition ahead of only 25% of Florida Southern regulars) and age as additional question marks for the prospect. The silver lining is that Coulter’s bat improved in June and is currently solidly hot in July (.311 AVG with five extra base hits in 50 PA), so hopefully Coulter has a redemption storyline on target.