Stearns just loudly answered that question this trade deadline.

What is fascinating about each of these trades is that they are fantastic in the sense of bolstering an MLB roster, in order to ensure that this stretch run features as few weaknesses as possible, while also potentially being over-pays in each case. Yet it should be stressed that these overpays are palatable for several reasons: the Brewers maintain a largely controllable roster that is also relatively inexpensive; the Brewers have a relatively large set of players that have been minor leaguers long enough to need potential 40-man roster protection entering 2019; and, perhaps most importantly, there is an incredible amount of role risk involved with each player. These trades should provide grounds for further analysis into when and how potential overpays are helpful to a team, and they should certainly provide further evidence that WARP/$ is not the sole determination of a trade’s potential value or impact.

Grading the System: 2016 || 2017

• Make no mistake about it, in terms of developing multiple quality pitches, command, and velocity, Luis Ortiz could potentially have the best pitching role for the Brewers system; there was a time, two years ago even, where it would not have been absurd for Ortiz to fight for a top tier pitching role in the prospect ranking cycle (and, really, it was not absurd). But Ortiz has been around forever in the advanced minors, it seems, without working full seasons. For example, the injury-fighting righty has 225 innings at Double-A without working 100 innings in a season, and with 68 innings at the 2018 deadline he could potentially miss 100 innings once again. If Ortiz can take his next step forward in the Orioles’ system, he is absolutely a more valuable asset, in terms of roster surplus, than Jonathan Schoop (and it is not close!!!), but that strong 60 Overall Future Potential (OFP) / 50 likely grade entering 2017 looks much more improbable. Ortiz is eligible for the Rule 5 draft for the 2019 season and almost certainly must be protected by the Orioles.

• Jean Carmona just made the jump stateside for the Brewers in 2018, and thus remains a full four levels away from the MLB. Additionally, Carmona might even be another year away from a clearly defined MLB potential role. In this regard, I do not envy the job of MLB scouts and analytics personnel, as it’s not entirely clear for me how I would price Carmona’s potential future value in terms of long-term systemic development.

• At BP Milwaukee, Kyle Lesniewski describe the roles and risks associated with both Kodi Medeiros and Wilber Perez. Medeiros could become an impact reliever at the MLB level, and it’s not unlikely that some observers still believe that he could start in some capacity, as there will always be hold outs for that sort of role. Given Medeiros’s delivery and command profile, however, as well as his fastball, Lesniewski outlines the difficulties that Medeiros may have for reaching even an impact reliever profile. Medeiros is eligible for the Rule 5 draft entering the 2019 season, and almost certainly must be protected by the White Sox, while Perez had yet to play stateside in the Brewers system.

• Finally, I already detailed the roles and surplus value for Brett Phillips and Jorge Lopez, so I will not go into too much detail here. However, I will add that of each of the prospects included in this midseason deals, Phillips is arguably the most likely to have MLB floor and ceiling roles that both surpass the value of the trade return (which is not a knock against Mike Moustakas, he simply might only be in Milwaukee for a couple of months). With a prospect such as Corey Ray coming on strong in Double-A Biloxi, not to mention the considerable development of Troy Stokes Jr. at the advanced level as well, Milwaukee cannot necessarily lose sleep over trading away a depth outfielder from their stacked group when they are fighting a close divisional deficit and leading the National League Wild Card race.

So, readers will witness a couple of recurring facts in these trades: the Brewers largely traded away players that must be protected for 2019 to avoid their loss via the Rule 5 draft, or players with little-to-no stateside development experience (and thus years to reach MLB), and/or players with roles that may be replicated within a year. One need not believe that a player like Stokes will surpass Phillips, in terms of overall ceiling, to see the value of the young prospect’s potential to fill an MLB depth position in 2019. Phillips himself may not have had an opportunity in 2019 to take such a role. The same logic might apply to Quintin Torres-Costa and Bubba Derby. This should not be construed to mean that these current system prospects are categorically better than Phillips / Medeiros / Lopez; in fact, I would have ranked each of that trio ahead of their potential 2019 depth replacements. But once again, since systemic development, contending windows, and player development cycles are now orbiting a club that is contending for consecutive seasons (and the foreseeable future, hopefully), if it costs system depth roles to improve MLB weaknesses, the Brewers have to eat the risk of losing those ceilings.

I like when MLB trades can simply be called good baseball moves. For all the rebuilding narratives in Baltimore, Kansas City, and Chicago, the White Sox, Royals, and Orioles front offices arguably made sensible trades with quality returns that both have long and short time horizons and development cycles. Milwaukee is working as a true contender without trading from their most elite potential prospect stash. This is good all around.

Stearns priced out these converging development cycles and adroitly moved the future role risk to address an offense that absolutely needed help for a serious contending run. Just the other day I wrote, “At worst, Travis Shaw has simply begun a potential shift over to the right side of the infield, where he might serve as a viable first base option for 2019 should the Brewers and Moustakas exercise his mutual option for 2019,” without thinking that a realistic move to first base for Shaw could occur as early as this week. Now, with Jonathan Schoop in the mix for second base and Jesus Aguilar slumping, Shaw becomes a strong side platoon option at 1B to form a serious infield unit:

This infield could open 2019 should Stearns consider keeping both Moustakas and Schoop, and now the talk can turn to development cycles once more. While the Brewers continue to season second baseman Keston Hiura at the most advanced levels of the minor leagues, Schoop basically serves as an upgrade over the Jonathan Villar gamble (gambling that he’ll return to his 2016 form), thus giving the Brewers a quality starting option while Hiura completes his minor league development. While Hiura’s bat is arguably ready for the MLB, and has been mentioned as a potential MLB option by Baseball Prospectus in their latest Top 50 list, the infielder may need more work in the field after missing significant fielding development time due to an extended elbow injury. Once Hiura is ready in 2019, a Schoop / Hiura mix simply extends the #TeamDepth mantra, and the same can arguably said for the remainder of the infield.

Entering 2018, the Brewers system took a step back in terms of organizational rankings, due to a series of developmental setbacks for key prospects, MLB graduations, and trades. I began to highlight this during last year’s “Grading the System” feature, but as one can never predict baseball, the development cycles and potential OFP assessments calibrated for Corey Ray, Keston Hiura answered a crucial risk question (can he play 2B?), and a veritable gang of pop-up pitchers continued to march upward in the system, potentially boosting and extending the no-name, depth-oriented pitching staff into 2019. Make no mistake about it, the system might continue to rank in the middle of the league in terms of overall quality, and the set of clear potential impact roles (true 60 OFP+ roles) may end with Keston Hiura and Corey Ray should Corbin Burnes exhaust his rookie standing through the end of 2018.

Yet, given the instant development of 2018 First Round draft pick Brice Turang, the Brewers could demonstrate that they indeed nabbed an Elite Prep prospect that fell due to prospect fatigue. Turang could quickly help to boost the top of the system as an MLB potential role falls into place. Moreover, given the Brewers’ expanded efforts in International signings, as well as the quality use of signing bonus allocations in each of the last two MLB drafts, the lower minors could continue to host a variety of players that suddenly surge onto the prospect scene. While this does not make the Brewers system different than many other MLB systems, it provides a road map to how the club can continue to develop talent while contending. One could argue that it’s absurd to suggest that the Brewers “rely” on someone like Turang falling in the MLB draft, but this is exactly the type of prospect perception and role foresight that the Brewers must have if they are going to succeed while drafting in the bottom half of each round.

Of course, the notable graduations from the system should not be undersold as well. Now there are so many starters, depth roles, and trades from the Brewers prospect stock that I added a new category this year:

Now, with these graduates in mind, what does a somewhat thinner, but still rather interesting Brewers system look like?

Prospect Key
Top 10 Consideration
Top 30 Consideration
[Just Interesting]

Of course, it is also worth emphasizing how the system has been….decimated in key areas. Given the quick development by advanced prospects acquired from the major 2015-2016 trades, as well as the huge trades entering 2018 and during the recent deadlines, the pool of potential impact prospects acquiring via trade has waned:

This is an important category to consider simply because Milwaukee demonstrated how adroit trades could quickly rebuild a system and reform an MLB roster. It will be worth watching to see if the Stearns continues to attempt to find Jonathan Villar and Keon Broxton types via trade now that the club is solidly contending. Of course, one could argue that Stearns is always trying to find this player (be it Oliver Drake, or Jesus Aguilar, or even Alec Asher), but that it simply the fact that these players will not always come via trade.

Thanks to the mechanical corrections, good health, and overall development of Corey Ray, as well as the surging role of Troy Stokes Jr., the development of draft prospects arguably has a better outlook entering 2019 than it did prior to 2018. Given the advancement of Corbin Burnes into a relief role, Brandon Woodruff and Taylor Williams into respective swingman and depth relief roles, and Brett Phillips into a fourth outfielder, it is clear that the Brewers front office is considering all possible role developments with each player (rather than following a cookie cutter model, or a model in which each prospect must immediately receive playing time in their clearest future role). It is arguable that this type of development strategy could maximize roles ranging from Stokes to Zack Brown, Jake Gatewood, and maybe even Lucas Erceg.

Meanwhile, Milwaukee signed a couple of additional potential impact International Amateur free agents this July, continuing an attempt to build up the low minors. Carlos Rodriguez and Larry Ernesto are already making some noise in the Dominican Summer League, while prospects like Jose Sibrian and Jesus Lujano have made the leap stateside.

Frankly, this Brewers system will not look as strong, in terms of potentially elite impacts roles, as the one that received ranking for 2018 at Baseball Prospectus. Yet, as new cycles of player development depth emerge in the low minors, and the Brewers continue their unique form of MLB roster construction (clearly using all 40 roster spots for MLB-adjacent roles and frequently shuffling those roles), Milwaukee could be an organizational well-suited to do more with less. For if 2017 fired the opening shot that the Brewers can contend simply based on giving high floor players a chance to work in the MLB, 2018 is advancing that ideal and carrying it to deeper logical, promotional, and transactional extensions.

Photo Credit: Gary A. Vasquez, USA Today Sports Images

Troy Stokes Jr. was riding a different wave. A former fourth-round pick, he had never received much prospect attention, but a strong 2017 campaign split between Carolina and Double-A Biloxi started to change that. Really, Stokes was just doing what he always did by showing good speed, decent pop, and a patient eye. Now, he was doing it at AA, and the pop was showing up in games. By year’s end, he was one of just ten minor league players to finish with at least 20 home runs (Stokes hit 20 on the nose) and 20 steals (he swiped 30). People started to stick him on their prospect lists.

Given their different trajectories heading in, it’s funny that Ray and Stokes have arrived at… exactly the same place. Through last Friday (July 6), Ray was batting .244/.342/.453 in 81 games for Biloxi, for an On Base Percentage plus Slugging Percentage (OPS) of .796, an isolated slugging percentage (ISO) of .209, and a True Average (TAv) of .282. Ray had tallied 101 strikeouts, against 44 unintentional walks. Among his 78 hits were 21 doubles, 5 triples, and 12 home runs. He’d stolen 21 bases in 25 attempts.

Stokes, meanwhile, was batting .250/.359/.442 in 83 games for the Shuckers, for an OPS of .800, an ISO of .192, and a TAv of .302. He had tallied 101 strikeouts, against 43 unintentional walks. Among his 77 hits were 18 doubles, four triples, and 11 home runs. He’d stolen 13 bases in 14 attempts.

The carbon-copy batting line makes for a fun quirk, and also serves as a useful checkpoint for prospect evaluation. Ray’s performance feels more personally and emotionally significant after the rocky start to his Brewers career. He’s showing a glimpse of the potential the Brewers saw when they signed him for a franchise-record bonus of $4.125 million. Because of his draft pedigree, it’s tempting to think that he’s only now starting to scratch the surface. He has made adjustments this year; that can portend good things. He’s extremely athletic, with loud tools and a positive attitude; these, too, are good things to have on your side.

Stokes’s performance is just as good as Ray’s 2018 thus far. But Stokes is essentially doing the same thing he did at this level last year, only over a larger sample. He had some helium coming into the season, but instead of continuing to rise, he’s riding along at the same (high) level. He hasn’t been underwhelming by any stretch, but he hasn’t been overwhelming either, and his performance doesn’t have the same redemptive narrative quality that Ray’s does.

So what to make of the pair going forward? Ray has more of everything, basically. More speed. More raw power. More of a chance to play up the middle. Certainly more name recognition.

Ray has more variance, too, and higher expectations, which could be his blessing or his curse. It’s easy look at the top prospect and see the makings of a five-tool outfielder if he can tighten up his approach and hit for a bit more average. It’s also easy to see his swing-and-miss issues spelling trouble against better and better breaking balls.

Stokes is younger, which adds a wrinkle to his evaluation. At present, he’s pull-happy, and his high-loft swing leaves him susceptible to lazy pop flies. He’s striking out more this year than he has before. That may be something he can grow out of, or it may be a warning sign that his hit tool will forever hover in the 40-45 scouting grade range. He’s a competent enough outfielder, but fits best in left, so his path to regular playing time will ride more on his bat than will Ray’s.

We can continue to debate the various merits and red flags of each player, or we could do the more sensible thing and simply sit back and enjoy the ride. Right now, Ray and Stokes are similar prospects doing similar things, having taken very different routes to get there. Who knows where their paths will lead; every prospect develops differently and it’s usually very difficult to identify future major league stars. Either one could become a star or a bust or a quality role-player. They could even continue their ascent locked in step, giving Milwaukee a pair of Mike Cameron-esque options to shuffle into what will continue to be a very crowded outfield mix. Three cheers for organizational depth.

On the surface, these are good outcomes. These are the outcomes that fans expected when the Brewers drafted Ray fifth overall in 2016—the club’s highest selection since Ryan Braun in 2005. On the surface, everything is fine.

Peel off the top layer, though, and all is not well. In 2017, Corey Ray batted .238 in his second tour of the class Advanced A Carolina League, on a well above average .346 BABIP. Ray struck out in 31 percent of his plate appearances, and ran a distinctly underwhelming .254 TAv. He slugged .367, which would have put him somewhere between Alcides Escobar and Dee Gordon had he produced that number in the major leagues. He is still three long, hard steps from the major leagues. These is not the outcomes that fans expected when the Brewers drafted Ray fifth overall in 2016.

So which is the real Corey Ray? The one who coasts along to flattering accolades on the strength of his draft pedigree, athleticism, and sweet, left-handed swing? Or the one who hasn’t figured out how to hit professional pitching after over 750 plate appearances?

Ultimately, Ray will have to answer those questions in 2018. He’ll be one of the most hawkishly-monitored prospects throughout the game. In order to assert himself in a strong Brewers system that’s packed to the gills with toolsy outfielders, he needs to produce. In the meantime, we can look to his Fall League performance for hints at what the future may hold. Across 15 games and 55 ABs with the Salt River Rafters, Ray exhibited all the traits that led the Brewers to call his name in 2016—and some familiar red flags, too.

Ray started his time as a Rafter with a bang, knocking a double off Cardinals September call-up (and number 39 mid-season prospect) Sandy Alcantara in his very first at bat. In his next 25 plate appearances, Ray was hitless, failed to draw a walk, and struck out six times, leading to a woeful .038 batting average.

Over his next eight games, Ray hit .367 across 30 at bats with five walks against nine strikeouts. He cracked a two-run homer and added a pair of doubles and three stolen bases. In the Fall Stars game last Saturday, Ray batted second and hustled out an infield single in the first inning off Mitch Keller. He proceeded to steal second, and then third, base. In his next three at bats he struck out swinging twice and drew a walk.

In all, Ray’s performance in the AFL has intrigued, frustrated, and inspired. His potential is clear; his limitations equally so. Since his draft day, he’s answered questions about his glove, blossoming into a comfortably above-average defensive outfielder (note his 12.7 FRAA in 2017). But his prototypical “advanced college bat” has struggled with making contact and tapping into his plus raw power. While his future could still be plenty bright, it could also be that of a glove-first fourth outfielder. (For giggles, check out Ray’s comparable players, including Austin Jackson, Kirk Nieuwenhuis, and Brett Phillips.)

Next year will be a big one for Ray. Center field remains an area of interest for the major league club; a strong performance could send the first-round pick rocketing up the depth chart. But if Ray can’t find consistency with his bat, he’ll find himself buried behind other outfield options. For now, he’s riding a hot streak in the AFL with eight games to play. Time will tell if it’s the beginning of an awakening or a glimpse into what could have been.

The Graduate

2. LHP Josh Hader

Hader was ranked as the Brewers’ #2 prospect entering the 2017 season, and he did not disappoint during his first taste of big league action. The lefty spent the first few months of the season struggling in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League, but once the projected Super Two cutoff had comfortably passed the Brewers brought Hader up to join a struggling bullpen. He was a revelation in a true fireman role, tossing 47.7 innings of 2.08 ERA baseball covering 35 appearances. He struck out batters in bunches, registering 12.8 K/9, while holding opponents to a .204 TAv. If ERA isn’t enough to illustrate his dominance, he also recorded an 86 cFIP and 80 DRA-. Inconsistent command and secondaries call into question whether or not Hader can eventually become a starter, but he looks to at least have fulfilled his floor of impact reliever.

Bull Market

1. OF Lewis Brinson

The 23 year old outfielder was Milwaukee’s #1 prospect last year, and there’s little doubt that the title will be bestowed upon him once again heading into 2018. In his first extended run at the minors highest level, Brinson pounded opposing pitchers to the tune of a .331/.400/.562 slash with 13 home runs and 11 steals in 76 games. He struggled in his brief MLB debut and suffered (yet another) injury in August that ended his season early, but those issues should do little to dim his long-term outlook.

6. OF Brett Phillips

Like Brinson, Maverick Phillips got his first extended taste of the AAA level in 2017 and thrived. A year after grappling with Southern League pitching, Phillips torched the PCL for a .305/.377/.567 batting line with 19 long balls and 10 steals. Unlike Brinson, Phillips opened up some eyes within the organization during an outstanding September in the big leagues, and ended 2017 with an MLB slash of four big league dingers, five steals, a .293 TAv, and some stellar defensive play in center field (+4.4 FRAA). He’s still got a lot of swing-and-miss in his game, but that’s becoming more and more prevalent throughout the league. Phillips appears to be on the inside track for the center field job in Milwaukee next spring.

Holding Steady

8. 3B Lucas Erceg

Erceg got off to a slow start in a tough league for hitters down in Carolina, but came on strong once summer officially hit. His .256/.307/.417 slash doesn’t jump off the page, but he did post an .807 OPS after June 1st and only four batters in the Carolina League slugged more than his 15 home runs. Erceg doesn’t look like he’ll be more than an average hitter who doesn’t walk much, but the power could be above-average to plus and Baseball America ranked his as both the top defensive third baseman and the top infield arm in the Carolina League this season.

9. SS/2B Mauricio Dubon

Dubon split the year between AA and AAA and displayed quality bat-to-ball skills and nifty defensive ability at both second base and shortstop. He didn’t brandish the power that he showed during his AA stint in Boston’s organization in 2016, though, but not many people really expected him to. Dubon’s game is built around high contact and speed, and he could contribute at the big league level as soon as this coming season.

10. RHP Cody Ponce

Ponce stayed healthy in 2017, which was one of the more worrisome issues regarding his development previously. He fills the zone and doesn’t walk many hitters, but his velocity hasn’t been quite what it was during his college days. His stuff is inconsistent at times and he didn’t miss a ton of bats this year, registering only 6.7 K/9. But he did throw nearly 140 innings in 2017 between high-A and AA while logging a 3.14 ERA, helping make his projection as a inning-eating back end starter that much more realistic.

Bear Market

3. OF Corey Ray

Ray’s been a pretty big disappointment in the early stages of his career since Milwaukee popped him fifth overall in 2016. He’s struggled adjusting to even average fastball velocity, and was overmatched to the tune of a league-leading 156 strikeouts in 112 games (31 percent K-rate) with Carolina this past season. He’s become a well-regarded defender in center field and has speed to burn, but after batting .238/.311/.367 with 7 homers this season, he’s started getting some grades as a future fourth outfielder.

4. 2B/SS Isan Diaz

Diaz has been lauded as one of the top-hitting middle infield prospects in the game, but that didn’t really come to fruition in 2017. His power was way down as he clubbed 13 home runs in Carolina (from 20 the year before in low-A) and saw a 50+ point drop in his ISO. He also had issues with expanding his strike zone and whiffed in nearly 27 percent of his plate appearances. Given that he’s unlikely to stick at shortstop with his limited range, there’s a lot of pressure on his bat to develop. A .222/.334/.376 slash in A-ball isn’t going to cut it.

5. RHP Luis Ortiz

Ortiz spent the entire year in AA at the age of 21 in 2017 and finished with a respectable 4.01 ERA in 94.3 innings, which was a career-high. But he missed time once again with injury, which is concerning given his reputation for poor conditioning and a “bad body.” For as much talk as there’s been about his advanced stuff, he didn’t get a lot of whiffs against his Southern League competition, registering 7.5 K/9, while also issuing a career-worst 3.5 BB/9. While there’s still hope for an above-average starter, he’s behind the eight-ball when it comes to building an innings base and needs to show that he’s capable of handling a full-season’s workload.

7. OF Trent Clark

Another Ray Montgomery 1st-rounder that has so far failed to live up to expectations. Clark was considered the most advanced high school bat in the 2015 class, but so far in the professional ranks he’s been dinged for being far too passive in the strike zone. His reserved approach helps him get on base at a high clip and draw plenty of walks against low-level pitching, but that won’t be sustainable as he climbs the minor league ladder. He has yet to find any semblance of consistent power, either, as his OBP (.360) was higher than his SLG (.348) in 2017. This purportedly “advanced hitter” could manage only a .223 average in 2017 while striking out at a 24 percent clip. His limited arm strength means that left field is probably the best fit long-term, putting even ore pressure on the bat to start developing.

Fast forward a year and a half, and it’s safe to say that the early returns on the Louisville product have been less than encouraging. Ray batted .247/.308/.385 with 5 home runs and 9 steals (in 14 attempts) in 57 games with Brevard County in 2016; the Florida State League can be tough for hitters, but Ray’s offensive production still translated to a below-average .252 TAv. He returned to Advanced-A ball again this season, though with a new affiliate and in a new league with the Carolina Mudcats. The unfamiliar surroundings did not foster a better performance, as Ray could muster only a .238/.311/.367 slash line in 112 games with the Mudcats, clubbing 7 home runs while swiping 24 bases (and getting nabbed 10 other times). He lead the circuit in whiffs, punching out 156 times, or a whopping 31 percent of his plate appearances. The Carolina League can also be a harsh hitting environment, but once again Ray checked in with a below-average TAv of .254.

Now, we can’t glean all the pertinent information about a player’s development from the stat line, of course. Unfortunately, scouts have also began to sour on the future outlook for the player that when the season began, was universally considered to be a top-50 prospect in baseball.

ESPN Insider Keith Law, who was one of Ray’s biggest advocates when he was drafted, ranked the 23 year old as “the prospect who lost the most ground” in a post shortly after the minor league season ended. Law noted that Ray’s swing has gotten longer since his collegiate days and that he’s struggled to hit professional quality pitching. Ray fell out of the midseason top 50 prospect rankings according to Baseball Prospectus and Baseball America. Perhaps most damning was BP scout John Eshleman’s assessment of Corey from this “Monday Morning Ten Pack” in late August:

“Corey Ray is a premium athlete, and he has many skills baseball teams value highly. Unfortunately, at present, hitting does not appear to be among them…Ray is getting FV 45 grades, providing big-league value as a fourth outfielder who can play all three outfield spots and run. Yes, there is some raw power in there, but his current problems at the plate preclude him from tapping into it…his “handsy” swing also leads to lots of roll-over grounders to the right side and soft-to-medium contact to the left…As the quality of arms he faces improves, Ray will need to engage his legs and backside to create leverage and make hard contact, in addition to shortening his swing. It is still only Ray’s first-full season, so he has time. His eye is good and there’s some barrel control, so if he figures something out with his swing, his upside remains substantial. However, a fourth outfielder outcome is more likely at present.”

Yikes. While a good fourth outfielder is certainly a useful player on a major league roster, the Brewers certainly have to be hoping for more out of the player that they used their highest pick in a over a decade on (Ryan Braun going #5 overall in 2005 was the last pick as high as Ray’s spot).

Undeterred by his poor performance during the summer, Milwaukee sent Ray as one of their representatives to the Arizona Fall League. Hoping to salvage something positive out of an otherwise supremely disappointing season, Ray has thus far looked quite overmatched in the prospect showcase circuit. It’s obviously a small sample size, but Ray has managed only one hit and zero walks in his first 25 at-bats for an .040 average, and he’s already piled up 6 whiffs. Law recently published a roundup of notes from the AFL, and on Ray he wrote “he’s not making any hard contact so far — even when he got a green light on 3-0 on Thursday night and got a fastball, all he could do was tap it to second base. Ray used to hit with a short stride and toe-tap, but that’s gone now, and I think it’s at least one reason for the absence of any power in his swing.”

It’s easy to be disappointed in Corey Ray’s development – or lack thereof – so far since joining the professional ranks. To add insult to injury, the player selected one pick later, lefty AJ Puk by the Athletics, posted sub-2.00 DRA in 125 innings between Advanced-A and Class-AA this season while leading the minor leagues in strikeout rate. Ray was billed as a highly talented and advanced outfielder from an elite collegiate program, the type of player who should be able to rise relatively quickly through the minor leagues. He’s swiftly fallen to become more of a project player: one who could have high upside, but needs to work out a lot of issues with his offensive game first. Given that he’s already 23 years old and was near the median age for his league this year, that’s not a promising sign.

It’s worth keeping in mind that Ray did suffer what must’ve been quite a serious meniscus tear last fall during instructional league; the recovery and rehab wound up lasting through spring training and he got a late start to the 2017 regular season. He’s looked perhaps better than expected defensively in center field, too, grading out at +12.7 FRAA this season. Plus, the money that the club saved when Ray signed for under-slot last summer helped them bring several other later round signings into the fold with over-slot bonuses.

Still, given the way he’s started his career, it’s not difficult to envision a scenario where Corey Ray fails to become an impactful player at the MLB level, if he’s even able to make it there. Most prospect development is nonlinear, but at this point it feels like we’ll be crossing our fingers for Ray to become a late bloomer. Ray Montgomery is a considered to be a highly respected baseball mind around the league, but so far his two 1st-round draft picks during his time as scouting director in 2015-16 (Trent Clark and Corey Ray) have not panned out.

There are methodological shortcomings to both scouting and statistical reports. Scouting reports have shortcomings in terms of potential observer biases or preferences, limited looks (even some organizations draft a player after only one look), and privileged information (or, at times, even intentional asymmetrical information from clandestine “sources”); statistics are impacted by all the contextual factors present at the MLB level, but perhaps even moreso age, quality of competition, developmental cycle (i.e., first trip to a level), and proprietary development assignments that will typically be unknown to external observers. These factors diminish the meaning of minor league statistis.

BPMilwaukee benefits from work with the Baseball Prospectus scouting team, which consistently uses a radical “eyes in the field” approach to drive scouting reports that are therefore often divergent from, and perhaps less hype-worthy (a good thing), than many industry competitors. (One example here would be the 2016 approach to RHPs Brandon Woodruff and Phil Bickford, compared to sources like FanGraphs and BaseballAmerica). To supplement reports, which can be gathered from BP player pages and daily prospect summaries published on the website, statistical analysis can be applied to index contextual factors that could impact the perception of a player’s performance. To this end, I will publish a two part series detailing the contextual factors impacting Brewers regular (or semiregular) batting and pitching minor leaguers, which should hopefully add information to the use of scouting lines throughout the offseason.

I choose the method of indexing statistics because it is relatively straightforward in terms of user interface: every metric can be measured against a “constant” or comparison variable, such as “Player Total Average (TAv)” versus “League TAv.” In an index, 1.00 can basically be read as “average,” for it means that a player’s metric perfectly matches the comparison metric. For example, Outfield Michael Reed played during his age-24 season at Class-AA Biloxi, and the Southern League had a median age of 24; therefore, Reed’s age index is 1.00 (after all these years, Reed is still not “old” for advanced minor league ball).

For system wide reference, here is a key:

For this exercise, I indexed Age, TAv, Opposing OPS (oppOPS), and Park Factor statistics drawn from Baseball Prospectus CSV (retrieved September 13, 2017). These categories do not exhaust the information available, but they are arguably foundations for measuring the typical quality of the regular players in the league, the quality of opposing pitchers, and any extreme (or not) park environments. Note that I did not focus on Rookie classes (Pioneer League, Arizona League, or Dominican Summer League), as those leagues are not only (arguably) more instructional in nature but also representative of professionals at their earliest stages of development (therefore, I am not quite certain what Rookie class stats “say”).

I used two methods:

• Once I created an Index for each of these statistics, I weighted each player’s OPS by assessing it against the Opposing OPS quality and contextual factors. Again, 1.00 can be read as average; below 1.00 can be read as below average, while above 1.00 can be read as better than average.
• To provide a quality control for this rudimentary method, I used a basic TAv Index. Since Total Average is already scaled to many contextual factors, it more accurately reflects a player’s performance within a specific run, park, and league environment (certainly moreso than OPS).
• By using a 50 Plate Appearance cut off, I captured 72 batting seasons performed by 63 Brewers minor leaguers.

A few observations:

• The very best statistical performances within the minor league system have varying degrees of scouting support. Keston Hiura, for example, was advertised as one of the best bats in the 2017 Draft (perhaps the most advanced college bat, even), and Hiura indeed scorched the Midwest League to the tune of a .326 TAv; he did so while being young for his league (during his first pro go-around), facing solid to slightly-tough opponents, and a moderate park environment. Jake Gatewood may have been the surprise breakout of the season, combining new contact lenses and mechanical advancements to pummel both Class-Advanced A and Class-AA leagues. Monte Harrison was another strong tools prospect – really, a fantastic athlete – that finally played a healthy season. Harrison and Gatewood diverge in terms of the type of Overall Future Potential roles they have, but here they converge in making great strides in showcasing their tools in 2017. On the other hand, Troy Stokes does not necessarily have the full scouting pedigree behind his statistical performance, which makes his 2017 season eye opening in terms of assessing an organizational depth role. Garrett Cooper was advanced minor league depth who went on to post a .275 TAv in 45 injury-shortened PA with the Yankees.

• Much has been made of the disappointing season by the much-hyped gang of Carolina bats (Corey Ray, Lucas Erceg, Isan Diaz, and Trent Clark). However, it should be underscored that they did not actually have bad seasons. At worst, they had arguably average seasons when considering their age and developmental status (each facing a new league the first time through). However, what is interesting is that each player has new scouting reports on potential flaws that could indeed impact Overall Future Potential; for example, a midseason 2017 eyewitness report downgraded Ray’s role, and several other members of the prospect team confirmed hit tool concerns throughout the season. This type of scouting concern cycle was repeated for several of these prospects, but it is worth nothing this was also scouts’ first full look at Corey Ray and Lucas Erceg. In this case, one ought to hold the conclusions on statistical and scouting assessments for another season, as more information will be necessary to understand these potential shortcomings. Anyway, hold the hype (and really, be healthy about hype in the first place!).

• There are a ton of interesting sleepers around here. Some interesting reports are floating around regarding infielder Wendell Rijo, for example, but the second baseman has never really flashed the stats. This year, Rijo graded solidly both in terms of contextual OPS and TAv. Clint Coulter remained young for his level (Class-AA Biloxi in 2017), and posted some intriguing peripheral statistics to go along with his overall solid line. Granted, there are few emerging reports on either of these players yet, which leaves room for a healthy dose of skepticism about future role. But, it’s worth remembering that many of these guys are so young when drafted that they remain young even through several repeated stages of Advanced ball development; hanging around at that upper level, one wonders what might come of a guy like Coulter after Garrett Cooper received trade interest.

• In terms of melding scouting pedigree and performance, Brett Phillips might have the best season of any Brewers prospect. While many viewed his 2016 campaign as a disappointment, there were several aspects of Phillips’s game that exhibited strengths even through the perceived weaknesses of his stat line. Of course, Phillips was also quite young for his level. The intriguing “elite”-4th Outfielder-to-potential CF or RF starter put it all together in 2017, including a couple of stunning cups of coffee in the MLB (including a 2-for-4, three RBI night with an Outfield Assist against the Pirates on Wednesday). Hiura has the flashiest immediate hype and performance, but Phillips’s full season production and realization of one aspect of his MLB future could arguably win him “Best Bat” of the system for 2017. I gather that someone like Monte Harrison most deserves a “Player of the Year” Award, but Phillips should not be discounted when considering the Brewers system’s best players.

Part One: Cooper / Gatewood / Hiura

Throughout the season, I’ve attempted to provide contextual statistics that help fans read along with the box scores. If we are going to have to read imperfect information, we might as well know as many things as possible for the league. For example, in Brinson’s case, we have a swirling set of circumstances: although he’s very young for AAA Pacific Coast League, he’s also facing easy competition in an extremely friendly hitting environment. This does not diminish his tools, but it should add some salt to the stat line. To accompany this installment of the Midseason 2017 3 Up 3 Down, here is an attempt to provide a normalized index for the Brewers’ “regular” minor leaguers thus far. This exercise should also be taken with a grain of salt, as there are imperfections even with the information available about minor league players; for example, a player’s youth in a league may not necessarily make the league more difficult depending on their toolbox, or a player’s park environment also might not accurately reflect the impact on player development.

One benefit of normalizing statistics is that players can be compared across levels to some degree. So, I normalized a player’s On Base Percentage Plus Slugging Percentage (OPS) or OPS-allowed for pitchers by using:

• Individualized Opposing OPS normalized by league context (league median Opposing OPS for regulars).
• Batting and Pitching Park Factors (where available) normalized against median league park factors for regular players.
• Player age normalized by league median age for regular players.

Weighing these elements together, consider the Brewers batting minor leaguers with 100+ PA, and minor leaguer arms with 30+ IP (and available park factors). Tables are pasted below for maximal reading enjoyment. Batters are ranked from high-to-low to showcase the players whose OPS performance occurred against the “lowest” or toughest Opposing OPS, and pitchers are ranked from low-to-high to showcase the arms whose OPS performances occurred against the “highest” or toughest Opposing OPS. Take a grain of salt with this index, as age is highly favored, as is park factor. Park factor may also unduly impact opposing OPS, as there is a good argument to be made that such a number should not be park adjusted (since it already expresses context in a different manner). But, it’s an approximation of a batter or pitcher’s OPS performance against their environment, which may be something to keep in mind alongside scouting reports or other “naked” discussions of their performances.

The BPMilwaukee Editorial Staff (Nicholas Zettel and Kyle Lesniewski) contributed to this feature, as well as Craig Goldstein and John Eshleman from the Baseball Prospectus prospect team.

3 UP
LHP Nick Ramirez, AA Biloxi (picked by Kyle Lesniewski): The Brewers drafted Ramirez in the 4th round in 2011 out of Cal-State Fullerton to be a power-hitting first baseman. The power has always been there as the left-handed slugger clubbed 95 home runs in 685 minor league games, but his career appeared to have stalled out after a third straight season of hitting under .250 in Class-AA. Last fall, the Brewers asked Ramirez to switch back to the other position he handled during his collegiate career: left-handed reliever. After a six year layoff, Ramirez has shown a surprisingly good feel for mound work while navigating through the Southern League. He’s appeared in 28 games and tossed 42.0 frames, yielding only a minuscule 1.50 ERA. His 29:17 K/BB rate and 3.68 FIP are a bit more pedestrian than the ERA would suggest (though he is generating an absurd amount of infield fly balls at 23.8 percent), but again this guy hadn’t pitched in over a half-decade prior to 2017. Nick has flashed a 90-91 MPH fastball along with a changeup and curveball and has been able to hold opposing lefties to just a .180 batting average against. Oh, and he also has two home runs and a 1.207 OPS in 19 plate appearances as a hitter this year, too. Ramirez is set for minor league free agency this fall if Milwaukee doesn’t add him to the 40 man roster, but a switch to the mound should certainly lengthen what appeared to be a career on life support less than a year ago.

C Mario Feliciano, A Wisconsin (picked by Craig Goldstein): Was it obvious that Lucas Erceg was the better prospect than Mario Feliciano following the 2016 draft? Certainly, Erceg was the more polished ballplayer, and his quick ascent during the 2016 season allowed him to churn the hype machine on his draft position. But, separated within the BaseballAmerica pre-draft Top 500, the two were respectively ranked #72 and #103, which is not an extreme spread and not necessarily as impactful as separating the #5 prospect from the #36 prospect. Both Erceg and Feliciano were drafted in the second round, Feliciano as a Competitive Balance pick. The reports on Feliciano were optimistic about his ability to stick behind the plate from the get go, which also theoretically gives the youngster positional advantage over Erceg. This is not to say that I expect Erceg to drop out of the 2018 Top 10 and Feliciano to leap into the Top 10 (they both could be there!), but simply that there is not a clear chasm of value between Erceg and Feliciano in the long term, and in the grand scheme Feliciano may be the better pure future value prospect.

Goldstein on Feliciano: He’s cooled off of late but he has the athleticism to catch and his bat is potent enough to handle a switch off the position should it come to that.

IF Aaron Familia, Dominican Summer (picked by Nicholas Zettel): Don’t scout the stat line, I know, I know, but if you’re going to scout the stat line there’s not many places better to do so than the Dominican Summer League. These guys are so far from the MLB as to be literal dreams, but there’s still good reason to maybe eye up some peripherals and see how the young guys in the league are performing. Familia is one of the Brewers’ 2016 signings from the July 2 period, and he returned to the Dominican Summer League after a rough first stint during his age-17 season. Now, Familia has found his footing, walking 10 times in 68 PA as of this writing, along with eight extra base hits and a .278 batting average. That walk rate is above average even for the 2017 DSL, as is the extra base hit total (the 2017 DSL has a .238 AVG with five percent of plate appearances resulting in an extra base hit). One ought to keep an eye on Familia, as the Brewers have recently been aggressive in promoting young DSL talent to the USA midseason (Franly Mallen comes to mind, for example). If Familia continues to prove himself, he could add to the bulk of amazing high risk talent at the bottom of the Brewers system.

3 Down
OF Corey Ray, Advanced A Carolina (picked by Craig Goldstein, Josh Eshleman):
At Baseball Prospectus, Christopher Crawford praised the Corey Ray pick following the 2016 draft: “He can flat out hit, and he has underrated pop from the left side. He’s also a guy who can steal 30-40 bases, and I give him at least a chance to stick at center. The upside is high, but it’s the extremely high floor that makes me love this pick. Good job, Milwaukee.” More measured debate focused on the potential issue of Ray as a ‘tweener (centerfield versus left field), with additional questions arising about how Ray’s offensive profile might play should he become a left fielder. Perhaps that high floor ‘tweener looks pretty solid, although scouting questions are eating at that high ceiling.

Goldstein on Ray: Ray hasn’t had a bad season by any means, but in my viewing he didn’t pop like you’d think a top-five selection would, a sentiment echoed by others I’ve talked to.

Eshleman on Ray: The primary concern among scouts is Ray’s hit tool, and he has struggled with velocity in 2017, a primary reason has k-rate has ballooned over 30%.

RHP Marcos Diplan, Advanced A Carolina (picked by Kyle Lesniewski): Diplan was mentioned as one of the prospects to keep an eye on in the Top 10 Prospects post from the BP main site earlier this year, but he’s struggled mightily to prevent runs ever since a midseason promotion to high-A last season. His fastball can hit the mid-90s and he flashes a plus slider, which has helped him miss bats at a rate of 9.6 K/9 this season. But his control appears to have taken a step in the wrong direction, as he’s issued walks at an 11.5 percent clip this season and has already unleashed nine wild pitches. Diplan’s diminutive stature and still-developing changeup may mean he’s already ultimately ticketed for the bullpen at some point, but a 5.77 ERA/4.82 DRA/4.71 FIP isn’t what you want to see out of a guy who is supposedly considered to be one of the org’s better pitching prospects.

2B Javier Betancourt, AA Biloxi (picked by Nicholas Zettel): What do you do with a prospect like Javier Betancourt in a professional era that fetishizes home runs, strike outs, and walks? Betancourt is exactly the opposite. The advanced ball second baseman is batting approximately 77.8 percent of balls into play for the season, which basically means that Betancourt’s strike outs, walks, and home runs total the basic strikeout rate of the typical 2017 Southern League batter. Granted, there was never a ton to dream on for Betancourt from the day the Brewers traded for him, as he’s a true glove first second baseman without a high ceiling on the bat (ex., the opposite of Isan Diaz, perhaps). Yet, I think there’s something worth looking into for nearly any young batting profile (at age-22, Betancourt is indeed among the small class of younger AA players) that can maintain a median performance for that age group at an advanced level of professional baseball. I also think it’s worth looking at Betancourt precisely because he is such a left turn from the typical Brewers prospect at the moment (all tools, lots of swing and miss, boatloads of speed and power to make up for that). A bit of a wrinkle in Betancourt’s defensive position accompanies a recent slump, but it could be worth stating that if Betancourt continues to play at 2B and 3B, a modified utility profile could escalate the odds that he gets a chance to test this all-contact profile at the MLB level.

Betancourt perhaps is the answer to a question I ask myself from time to time, is there room for “bat control” guys in contemporary MLB? Which is simply to remind everyone that iterations of baseball are subject to professional preferences (and perhaps biases). One could conceivably design an MLB based around guys like Betancourt, which raises another interesting question, namely what would we think about guys like Lewis Brinson or Demi Orimoloye or Keon Broxton if the league was all about the Betancourts? Not that the league should be all about the Betancourts, but rather what value could be found in a seemingly stalled prospect profile that nevertheless is producing at an advanced class.

Minor League Context Tables:

I cheated and included Corbin Burnes in Class-AA Biloxi because if you can’t cheat a little bit, what’s the fun?

This morning I’m focusing on the bats. Let’s remember where the affiliates were on April 25:

And now, through May 12:

A couple of interesting notes:

• The Pacific Coast League continues to be the most favorable batting environment within the system, which should cause fans to place a pile of salt on their statistics citations for Lewis Brinson, Brett Phillips, Ryan Cordell, etc. Normalizing their performances to their environment should help one to present more realistic expectations for potential MLB call-ups.

• Keep an on Jacob Nottingham, who is heating up in May (.261 / .346 / .435 thus far). For the year, he’s faced brutal opposing OPS of .639 in a pitcher’s environment, so his overall total of eight extra base hits and six walks in 97 Plate Appearances look intriguing. If Nottingham can begin to find his power in this environment, it could signal a potential breakout ability in a more favorable (i.e., even an average) batting environment.

• Over the last couple of weeks, there has been a huge shift in the Midwest League at Wisconsin, causing competition levels to stratify there. Demi Orimoloye’s power surge looks especially impressive against opposing OPS of .681, so it will be interesting to see what midseason scouting reports reveal about his current performance and approach.

• Fans concerned about the performance of Lucas Erceg and Corey Ray, absent any specific scouting notes about their respective performances, should heavily weigh their tough opposition against their stat lines. Compared to the league opposition of .708 OPS, the median Carolina Mudcats regulars face opposition of .696 OPS. Within this environment, Ray has faced opponents with a .681 OPS, Erceg a .693 OPS. For this reason, throw aside the stats concerns and await scouting and approach notes.

From MLB GameDay:

Making the rounds of Brewers Twitter this morning is a beautiful shot of Diaz’s 70-potential fastball playing out on the big stage, for the righty’s first MLB strikeout. For many of us, we rely faithfully on scouting reports and good grains of salt to understand the strengths and weaknesses of prospects without much video evidence (for those of us that do not subscribe to Minor League TV, that is). So, this morning served as a wonderful visual introduction to that sharp moving fastball.

That fastball…is better than the one I had in mind while reading 70-potential scouting reports. Of course, while reading those reports, I was also fixated on the potential 60 slider and 55 change up that accompanied the big pitch, designating Diaz as one of the Brewers’ very best right-handed prospects, at least in terms of potential three-pitch mix. The rub with Diaz was always the risk factor, which usually played much, much louder than the Overall Future Potential for the righty; it was always downgraded, that Diaz was quite a risky bet to reach the MLB as a starter. Entering 2015 as one of Milwaukee’s top prospects, Baseball Prospectus noted that a 2019 ETA might be expected for the righty:

“After tantalizing evaluators throughout the summer, Diaz stood out during fall instructs thanks in large part to a more consistent breaking ball, including a short slider/cutter variation that added another look and could provide a solid weapon for missing left-handed barrels if the changeup does not fully materialize. Because he gets such good extension on his offerings, the ball gets in on hitters quickly, allowing the pitch to play above its plus velocity grade. That has the duel benefit of helping the fastball to jump and making identification of the cutter more problematic. As with Medeiros, there’s so much distance between present profile and the ultimate skill set required to hold down a spot in a major-league rotation that the Brewers will likely take things slowly with Diaz in 2015, with a focus on continuing to build up arm strength and durability while refining the secondaries. A Helena assignment seems most likely, and would put him in line for a full-season debut in 2016 at the age of 21.”

In the middle of 2016, Grant Jones published a Baseball Prospectus eyewitness report that corroborated the risky story for Diaz while underscoring the lofty potential of the arsenal. Jones wrote, “Upside of good number three pitcher; risk factor makes power reliever very possible. Ability to throw all three for strikes, confident with all pitches, needs more reps with repeating delivery and will be a starter if he can find more consistency. High-upside arm, risk factor is very high but stuff is there. Has the makings for everything to come together soon.”

Diaz played 2016 at Class-A Wisconsin, nearly reaching 100 innings and posting a 3.14 Deserved Runs Average (DRA), a monstrous 91 strike out / 29 walk ratio, and an improved groundball ratio (from 38 percent at Class-R Arizona to 47 percent in full season ball). For all intents and purposes, this appeared to be a smashing success, although analysts must weigh Diaz’s weak competition against his extremely young age for his level. This was the type of season that could sell a risky starting pitching prospect, and unfortunately the Brewers could not take their time to decide on the merits of Diaz; having begun his professional career in 2012, he was ready for the 40-Man Roster, or risked exposure in the Rule 5 Draft. Usually, one would not blink twice at the thought of losing a low ball pitcher in the Rule 5 draft, but in fact this has happened (at least) twice over the last few seasons, including the Brewers’ own experiment with Wei-Chung Wang and the Padres’ selection of Luis Perdomo.

Rereading Diaz’s scouting reports, and viewing his stuff, it is worth asking whether reports had the risk profile backwards for Diaz. Perhaps the MLB relief floor was there, even in Class-A, what with a present-grade 60 fastball and 45 slider (how many current Brewers relievers can boast that combination of grades?). Traditionally, it is easy to simply scoff at the notion that Diaz would have been a potential relief prospect, because the traditional notion remains that you develop players as starting pitchers until they absolutely prove themselves to be relievers. Traditionally, it is easy to dismiss the notion of a Class-A player being anywhere near the MLB; that’s at least three levels and therefore three years away from the big stage, especially if a player’s profile is risky starting pitcher. The trouble is, if a player is not a risky starting pitcher but a potentially solid relief profile, that timetable stands on its head.

The problem with this line of reasoning, of course, is that fans are always ready to push players along as quickly as possible. When the Brewers signed Gilbert Lara, the question was whether Lara could be a type of breakout phenom that makes the MLB for his age-20 season, a la Miguel Cabrera. When the Brewers drafted Cody Ponce, looking at the righty’s frame and arsenal, it was interesting to question whether Ponce could become the next Michael Conforto, a relatively polished prospect that can leap from Class-A to the MLB during the same season (as Conforto did in 2015). These dreams are muted by reality, obviously. But they persist: fans still ask the same type of question about Brewers prospect Corey Ray: can’t you see Ray in Brewers blue in 2018?

Yet, MLB scouting, player development, and analytical teams must take the risk profiles and potential futures of each player quite seriously, and in this case the fact that the Brewers misjudged Diaz’s profile raises questions about how the organization should handle future low ball Rule 5 draft risks. Losing Miguel Diaz is not “nothing,” as there are few 70-potential fastballs lying around the minor leagues, even if those fastballs might be tied to a risky starting pitching profile. Indeed, on the OFP scale that historically grants Diaz $48.9 million in surplus value to the Brewers at his highest pure grade, it is so easy to imagine a future in which the Brewers develop Diaz as a starting pitcher and he never reaches the MLB ($0 surplus). Watering down Diaz’s grade with a host of 40-45-50-55-60 OFP futures gives a much more reasonable estimate of the righty’s surplus value in Milwaukee. But if one asks whether Diaz is a reliever all along, Class-A is much closer to the MLB, and Diaz certainly justifies a 40-man roster spot in that case. “Power reliever” is an essential role for a potentially contending club in 2019 or 2020, and unleashing Diaz as a reliever probably materializes his MLB career in a much easier (less risky) manner than as starting pitching.

So, here lies a logical, analytical player development problem for the Brewers: if they are risk averse with their 40-man roster spots, they must not ask, “what is this player’s ceiling?” but “what is this player’s floor?” When a floor could be as strong as that of Diaz, who was working with a 60 / 45 two pitch mix as early as midseason 2016, Milwaukee must reassess the value of that profile for their roster. Odds are the Brewers did not lose a risky starter that was very far from the MLB, but a relatively stable relief profile that was much closer to the MLB, and it is worth asking whether that profile is worth losing again in the future.

Continuing age-based analysis of minor league statistics, the 2016 Midwest League could be the most interesting case yet. Unlike the Southern League or Pacific Coast League, the Midwest League featured a group of three different age levels with similar production, and two adjacent age groups that did not fall far. From age-21 to age-22 to age-23 players, Midwest League bats slashed .245 / .316 / .356, .249 / .318 / .352, and .247 / .317 / .353, respectively. On the outskirts, age-20 batted .249 / .307 / .367 while age-24 batted .252 / .315 / .333, giving the league an expansive middle ground of 345 players that can be judged by very similar production standards.

One might ask whether this reflects the nascent stages of minor league competition, perhaps where players may be closer to the same development curve, thereby exhibiting less stratification among minor league players. Perhaps Class-A is the first level at which “organizational lifers” emerge, or players hit their first professional ceiling and stick around for a year or two before heading to their next career. It would be worthwhile digging into a scouting explanation for this phenomenon, in order to see how the physical tools relate to the statistics; perhaps everyone (or almost everyone) at Class-A is still learning the strike zone, or pitch recognition, or some foundational trait that places the vast majority of players on the same level.

There are a number of notable bats that defined the Timber Rattlers in 2016. Isan Diaz produced one of the best seasons at the Class-A level, and although he did not win MVP, he certainly has the performance level worthy of consideration. Lucas Erceg also stormed the league out of the 2016 draft, demonstrating a completely different developmental stage (relatively polished college draftee) than Diaz. Along with Diaz and Erceg, several depth players produced interesting or good seasons, giving fans and writers more players to think about and watch during the 2017 campaign. Perhaps no one will be more interesting to follow than Monte Harrison, whose statistical line was damaged by a rough April and early-May, and whose hot streak was cut short by injury. Harrison has shown flashes of “putting it together,” so it will be crucial to see how he returns from injury.

Down in Florida, the Brevard County club had a rough season, mostly due to the bats. This level lagged behind in the system during 2016, and unfortunately, even age-based statistics do not allow one to reconsider many gems.

It is worth noting that Corey Ray produced a fine campaign, based on his age level and the fact that he was making his professional debut in an aggressive assignment. While Ray’s surface stats of .247 / .307 / .385 does not look very good, age-21 players in the Florida State League were notably worse than that production level, allowing one to see that Ray showed solid hitting, discipline, and (especially) strong isolated slugging. Even if one follows scouting reports to raise some questions about the hit tool, there is a sense that Ray’s tools are already showing up in his stat line, even if that line is depressed by his environment.