Continuing age-based analysis of minor league statistics, the 2016 Midwest League could be the most interesting case yet. Unlike the Southern League or Pacific Coast League, the Midwest League featured a group of three different age levels with similar production, and two adjacent age groups that did not fall far. From age-21 to age-22 to age-23 players, Midwest League bats slashed .245 / .316 / .356, .249 / .318 / .352, and .247 / .317 / .353, respectively. On the outskirts, age-20 batted .249 / .307 / .367 while age-24 batted .252 / .315 / .333, giving the league an expansive middle ground of 345 players that can be judged by very similar production standards.

One might ask whether this reflects the nascent stages of minor league competition, perhaps where players may be closer to the same development curve, thereby exhibiting less stratification among minor league players. Perhaps Class-A is the first level at which “organizational lifers” emerge, or players hit their first professional ceiling and stick around for a year or two before heading to their next career. It would be worthwhile digging into a scouting explanation for this phenomenon, in order to see how the physical tools relate to the statistics; perhaps everyone (or almost everyone) at Class-A is still learning the strike zone, or pitch recognition, or some foundational trait that places the vast majority of players on the same level.

There are a number of notable bats that defined the Timber Rattlers in 2016. Isan Diaz produced one of the best seasons at the Class-A level, and although he did not win MVP, he certainly has the performance level worthy of consideration. Lucas Erceg also stormed the league out of the 2016 draft, demonstrating a completely different developmental stage (relatively polished college draftee) than Diaz. Along with Diaz and Erceg, several depth players produced interesting or good seasons, giving fans and writers more players to think about and watch during the 2017 campaign. Perhaps no one will be more interesting to follow than Monte Harrison, whose statistical line was damaged by a rough April and early-May, and whose hot streak was cut short by injury. Harrison has shown flashes of “putting it together,” so it will be crucial to see how he returns from injury.

Down in Florida, the Brevard County club had a rough season, mostly due to the bats. This level lagged behind in the system during 2016, and unfortunately, even age-based statistics do not allow one to reconsider many gems.

It is worth noting that Corey Ray produced a fine campaign, based on his age level and the fact that he was making his professional debut in an aggressive assignment. While Ray’s surface stats of .247 / .307 / .385 does not look very good, age-21 players in the Florida State League were notably worse than that production level, allowing one to see that Ray showed solid hitting, discipline, and (especially) strong isolated slugging. Even if one follows scouting reports to raise some questions about the hit tool, there is a sense that Ray’s tools are already showing up in his stat line, even if that line is depressed by his environment.

RHP Hiram Burgos:  (W, 3-3) 5.0 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 1 K — 3.25 ERA
RHP Jim Henderson:  1.0 IP, 2 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 1 K, 2 HR — 5.06 ERA
3B Matt Dominguez:  2-for-5, 2B, RBI, 2 R — .252 AVG
LF Matt Long:  1-for-3, 3B, RBI, 2 BB, SB (11), R — .262 AVG

Biloxi Shuckers: (30-27), 2.0 GB

RHP Adrian Houser:  (W, 3-0) 7.0 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 3 K — 2.17 ERA
RHP Martin Viramontes:  1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 2 K — 6.80 ERA
C Parker Berberet:  3-for-4, HR (1), RBI, 2 R — .219 AVG
1B Nick Ramirez:  1-for-4, HR (14), RBI, R, 2 K — .241 AVG
RF Josh Fellhauer:  2-for-2, 3 RBI, 2 BB — .253 AVG

Brevard County Manatees: (25-32), 10.0 GB

[Game shortened due to rain.]

LHP Wei-Chung Wang:  6.0 IP, 6 H, 2 R (1 ER), 0 BB, 3 K — 3.65 ERA
CF Omar Garcia:  1-for-3, 2 SB (51), R — .258 AVG
3B Taylor Brennan:  1-for-2, 2B, SB (13), K — .238 AVG

Wisconsin Timber Rattlers: (21-35), 16.5 GB

RHP Eric Hanhold:  4.0 IP, 4 H, 3 R (2 ER), 0 BB, 3 K — 7.52 ERA
LHP Luis Ortega:  (W, 2-7) 2.0 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 3 K — 5.59 ERA
DH Tucker Neuhaus:  2-for-4, 2B, 3B, BB — .240 AVG
1B David Denson:  2-for-3, 2B, BB, 2 R — .202 AVG
3B Sthervin Matos:  3-for-3, 2B, RBI, 2 R — .214 AVG

Helena Brewers: (8-17), 7.0 GB

RHP Jordan Yamamoto:  (L, 1-6) 2.1 IP, 8 H, 8 ER, 1 BB, 2 K, 2 HR — 8.10 ERA
RHP Bubba Blau:  3.2 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 5 K, 1 HR — 5.74 ERA
CF Troy Stokes:  2-for-5, RBI, SB (20), R, K — .257 AVG
3B Steven Karkenny:  1-for-3, 2B, RBI, R, 2 K — .250 AVG

AZL Brewers: (11-14), 4.0 GB

RHP Scott Grist:  2.0 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 4 K — 3.45 ERA
RHP Miguel Diaz:  (L, 0-3) 4.0 IP, 2 H, 2 R (0 ER), 0 BB, 8 K — 2.21 ERA
2B Gregory Munoz:  2-for-3, R — .240 AVG
CF Trent Clark:  1-for-4, BB, 2 K — .309 AVG

Prospect of the Day:  1B David Denson, Wisconsin

On August 15, Denson made history by becoming the first active professional baseball player to come out as gay. He’s certainly not the first gay ballplayer, nor is he statistically likely to be the only active gay player, but it still represented a positive move for the sport that Denson no longer has to hide a key part of his identity — or even have to consciously act against it in an effort to be accepted. Much of the discussion surrounding the announcement has concerned the weight that has been lifted off Denson’s shoulders, the lessening of anxiety. One sees him go 2-for-3 with a double for the Timber Rattlers on Tuesday, and the tendency is to ride the narrative and celebrate his new-found peace. I checked his recent numbers, expecting to find an uptick in performance.

Unfortunately, the young man is only hitting .209/.314/.442 with four doubles and two homers in the 12 games since his public announcement.

Of course, the whole situation is far too complicated to confidently draw causal arrows. Timber Rattlers’ manager Jeff Erickson noted that Denson’s pronouncement was not a surprise to people in his clubhouse, as Denson had already shared his secret with many T-Rats players. Thus, can we really point to August 15 as the day the anxiety lifted and the real David Denson appeared on the diamond? Seems doubtful. Perhaps we should then acknowledge his positive performance in July — as he hit .270/.363/.461 with 11 extra-base hits — but there’s no way to know when Denson began to feel emotional and psychological relief from the pain he endured earlier in the season.

It’s a tremendous story and a narrative that begs to be written, in terms of his performance, but it’s impossible to draw clear-cut lines. It’ll have to suffice to note that he’s turned around his fortune on the diamond in recent months, improving dramatically from April and May, when he struggled to eclipse the Mendoza Line.

ESPN || On The Road Again… (8/17/15)

David Fleming (@FlemESPN), who was embedded with the team, shares the incredible story of Double-A Biloxi’s two-month road trip to begin their inaugural season, as they awaited the completion of their stadium. There are emotional moments throughout the piece, from the sudden sickness of Josh Fellhauer’s mother to the short-lived call-up of Tyler Wagner, so pack your tissues. In our world of constant distractions, it’s easy to skip a 6,000 word piece about a minor-league ball club, but this article is beautiful and absolutely worth your time. There’s a gimmicky chapter-video thing here if you want it, but it’s just an aggregation of videos which can be found in the story itself that have been edited down to minute-ish long snippets, and you can safely skip it. Fleming’s piece, however, is mandatory.

Minor League Ball || Prospect breakouts: Ruddy Giron and Jorge Lopez (8/15/15)

Sticking with the Shuckers, Scott Mowers with SB Nation’s Minor League Ball taps Jorge Lopez, a participant in last year’s Future’s Game and currently the Southern League wins leader, as one the National League’s breakout prospects for 2015. Mower also talks a bit about Lopez’ son, who is dealing with a series of finally-diagnosed conditions (Fleming’s piece above talks about this as well). Also featured: a shortstop prospect from the Padres organization whom A.J. Preller has probably just traded for an outfielder.

FanGraphs || The Future of David Denson (8/17/15)

In the days following David Denson’s announcement that he is gay (JS Online mercifully turned comments off for that article), the internet was predictably flooded with takes uncountable from across the spectrum of human decency. If you’re from the “just shut up no one cares what you do in the bedroom” crowd, please feel free to stop reading here and log off the internet forever — only after your final tweet about Aaron Rodgers’s and Olivia Munn’s pre-game “activities,” of course. If you’re looking for the thinkpieces you can find easily find them on your own (ours, from Jack Moore, is here). Chris Mitchell (@_chris_mitchell) at FanGraphs uses his own projection system, KATOH, to examine Denson’s potential to reach the big leagues. He concludes that things don’t look particularly rosy for the 19-year-old, who struggled mightily at Class-A Wisconsin before being demoted back down to Rookie-level Helena. Still, Denson has said that the strain of living behind a mask has weighed on him heavily, and there’s no projection system that can account for his personal journey. Here’s hoping that Denson can get back on track with this weight off his shoulders.

MLB Daily Dish || The Brewers appear to be narrowing their serach for a new GM (8/20/15)

There’s been plenty of speculation on who might fill Doug Melvin’s hopefully-scorpion-free shoes as Milwaukee’s ninth General Manager, with most of the early money coming in on Brewers’ amateur scouting director Ray Montgomery. Today, a pair of tweets from Jerry Crasnick set off speculation that a couple of other names might be on that short list: former Angels GM and current Red Sox advisor Jerry Dipoto and former Red Sox GM Ben Cherington. The former was run out of Anaheim after a public spat with Mike Scioscia, the latter run out of Boston after a string of ill-fated acquisitions left the Sox with an bloated, aging roster. How truly responsible either ultimately was for issues that lead to their demise is subject to debate, and either would be a fine choice to replace Melvin.

FanGraphs || The 2015 In-Season Prospect Update (8/19/15)

Kiley McDaniel (@kileymcd) delivers FanGraphs mid-season, post-trade deadline update of the top prospects in baseball. He broke it down in four categories: “The Top Prospects,” “Minor League Pop-Up Guys” (players that were outside of the top 200 who have made significant jumps forward), “The Crop of New Pro Talent,” and “The (Many) Graduated Prospects.” Milwaukee has exactly one representative on each list, and I just bet you can name each one.

It is important to understand the history of gay people in Major League Baseball does not begin with Denson. As Christina Kahrl wrote at ESPN, Glenn Burke, an outfielder for the Dodgers and Athletics in the 1970s, was out to his teammates and coaches (but sportswriters, as Allen Barra wrote in 2013, refused to report on his sexuality). Billy Bean, an outfielder for the Padres, Dodgers, and Tigers from 1987-1995, also came out publicly after his retirement and currently works with MLB as its ambassador for inclusion.

Burke came out publicly in a story for Inside Sports in 1982, where he discusses why he left baseball, his relationship with Tommy Lasorda, his belief that Lasorda traded him because of his sexuality, and more. Burke explains the difficulties of navigating the sports world as a gay man:

“It’s harder to be a gay in sports than anywhere else, except maybe president. Baseball is probably the hardest sport of all. Every man in America wants his son to be a baseball player. The first thing every father buys for his son is a ball and glove. It’s all-American. Only a superstar could come out and admit he was gay and hope to stay around, and still the fans probably would call the stadium and say they weren’t going to bring their kids. Instead of understanding, they blackball you.”

Sports, for many fans, is one of our earliest introductions to mass culture, if not the first. Whether from our own parents and coaches or from the talking heads on television broadcasts, we absorb core lessons about the way of the world through sports. This is what society means when we collectively talk about sports making men out of boys, and what amateur coaches mean when they proudly assert they are molding the next generation of men through their work.

We have to acknowledge, then, that sports have not been just a place where homophobia is enacted, where anti-gay sentiments show up by happenstance. Sports, rather, have been a space where homophobia is created, sustained, and propagated. Just 40 years ago, Jack Danahy, a former FBI agent who served as director of NFL Security from 1969-1980 offered his view on gay individuals in football:

“If there were actually a homosexual in the league, which I have no evidence there is, if you have a homosexual, he’s always subject to possible compromise. That’s a standard situation in world activities. In espionage, there’s been a history in international affairs of homosexuals being compromised and used against their better interests so that would naturally be a matter of concern to us.”

This was the view of gay players just two generations ago. Far from being seen as human, they were a threat, a nuisance, a “matter of concern.” It’s this kind of view that led the Dodgers to offer Glenn Burke a $75,000 bribe to enter into a sham marriage with a woman. It’s what led Tommy Lasorda to deny his own son’s homosexuality and that he died of complications with AIDS. It’s this warped and hateful understanding of sexuality that forces players to such secrecy that in organized baseball, which has seen tens of thousands of players suit up, we only know of three who have been gay, and only two have been out while in uniform.

It is this preceding history that makes Denson’s announcement so important. Baseball has not just been a place where people like Denson aren’t welcome, it’s a place where people like him have been actively rejected. That Denson feels comfortable enough to come out now, when the pressure against being openly gay in baseball has previously been enough to keep so many quiet and entirely exile others from the game, is a signal of real change.

The role of MLB and the Brewers organization in Denson’s announcement is also extremely encouraging. As Tom Haudricourt reported for the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, the advice of a professional counselor made available by the Brewers helped him realize he wanted to come out to team officials. And Bean, as part of his role with MLB, has been serving as Denson’s mentor throughout his preparation for the announcement.

The NFL swiftly rejected Michael Sam after his announcement. Jason Collins’s announcement was accepted by the NBA, but his coming out was self-supported, his Sports Illustrated article written and crafted while he was a free agent. That the Brewers have not only been accepting but an active supporter of Denson throughout this whole process is the most encouraging indication that the culture is changing. The Brewers didn’t treat Denson as a distraction or a matter of concern. They treated him like a human being who needed somebody to talk to and somebody to help him.

Denson has been struggling on the field in 2015. He hit just .195/.264/.305 for Class-A Wisconsin before being sent down, and he is hitting a mediocre .247/.339/.390 in 43 games for Rookie-level Helena. But chances are we haven’t seen the real Denson for a while. He was near rock bottom as spring training approached, as he told Haudricourt, “It became a depression level. I wasn’t being myself. It was visible in my body language. I didn’t know if I should still stay in the sport.” Without the support of a team, the David Denson’s of the past have simply slipped out of the game and into its past unnoticed. Now, the 20-year-old will finally get the chance to play with a weight lifted off his shoulders.

Despite the demotion to Rookie ball this year, Denson is still younger than the average player in his league. Yes, he’s a long shot to reach the majors, a 15th-rounder with a strikeout problem who needs to find a positional home. But most importantly, Denson is still a ballplayer. The chance he’s getting—to become the best ballplayer he can, and to do so in his own way—is nothing more than the chance every ballplayer deserves.