At the time that he was hired, it seemed like as though the Brewers were many years away from consistent contention. Even the optimistic fan would have pointed to 2019 or so as the year in which the Brewers may start to make some noise. Stearns has exceeded expectations by any measure.

But because baseball is a sport perfect for speculative thought exercises, I asked the following question: What if he didn’t?

What would have happened if Stearns settled into his desk on the morning of September 20, 2015, took stock of the team and its farm system, and said, “You know what? Let’s just ride it out and see what happens.”

In the alternate universe you are about to enter, every Stearns trade is gone. He just never even picks up the phone. The free agent signings and waiver claims, for the sake of this exercise, remain. (In the Bizarro universe, his nickname is Waivin’ Dave.)

We’ll also assume that the performances of all players involved in the Bizarro universe would be comparable to their real-world counterparts, aside from some minor park adjustments, perhaps. Why this particular set of rules? ‘Cuz.

The first order of business: Undoing every trade the Brewers made after handing the franchise reins to David Stearns.

Trades Undone:

November 18, 2015 – Traded RHP Francisco Rodriguez to the Detroit Tigers for MiLB IF Javier Betancourt and C Manny Piña
November 19, 2015 – Traded MiLB RHP Cy Sneed to the Astros for 2B Jonathan Villar
November 20, 2015 – Traded IF Luis Sardiñas to the Mariners for OF/1B Ramon Flores
December 9, 2015 – Traded IB Adam Lind to the Mariners for MiLB RHPs Carlos Herrera, Daniel Missaki, and Freddy Peralta
December 17, 2015 – Traded 1B Jason Rogers to the Pirates for MiLB RHP Trey Supak and OF Keon Broxton
January 30, 2016 – Traded 2B/SS Jean Segura and MiLB RHP Tyler Wagner to the Diamondbacks for MiLB 2B/SS Isan Diaz, RHP Chase Anderson, and IF Aaron Hill
February 12, 2016 – Traded OF/DH Khris Davis to the Athletics for MiLB RHP Bubba Derby and MiLB C Jacob Nottingham
July 7, 2016 – Traded IF Aaron Hill to the Red Sox for MiLB IF Wendell Rijo and MiLB RHP Aaron Wilkerson
August 1, 2016 – Traded RHP Jeremy Jeffress and C Jonathan Lucroy to the Rangers for MiLBers Lewis Brinson (OF), Luis Ortiz (RHP), and Ryan Cordell (OF)
August 1, 2016 – Traded LHP Will Smith to the Giants for C Andrew Susac and MiLB RHP Phil Bickford
December 6, 2016 – Traded RHP Tyler Thornburg to the Red Sox for 3B Travis Shaw, MiLB SS/2B Mauricio Dubon, MiLB RHP Josh Pennington, MiLB SS Yeison Coca
December 13, 2016 – Traded C Martin Maldonado and MiLB RHP Drew Gagnon to the Angels for C Jett Bandy
April 13, 2017 – Traded RHP Damien Magnifico to the Orioles for RHP Oliver Drake
June 30, 2017 – Traded IF/OF Nick Franklin to the Angels for cash
July 13, 2017 – Traded 1B Garrett Cooper to the Yankees for LHP Tyler Webb
July 26, 2017 – Traded OF Ryan Cordell to the White Sox for RHP Anthony Swarzak
July 31, 2017 – Traded RHP Tayler Scott to the Rangers for RHP Jeremy Jeffress
August 12, 2017 – Traded RHP Eric Hanhold to the Mets for 2B Neil Walker
January 25, 2018 – Traded OF Lewis Brinson and MiLBers Isan Diaz (SS/2B), Monte Harrison (OF), and Jordan Yamamoto (RHP) to the Marlins for OF Christian Yelich
February 2, 2018 – Traded C Andrew Susac to the Orioles for cash
May 25, 2018 – Traded MiLB IF Wendell Rijo to the Yankees for C Erik Kratz
June 10, 2018 – Traded 1B/OF Ji-Man Choi to the Rays for IF Brad Miller and cash
July 26, 2018 – Traded MiLB LHP Kodi Medeiros and MiLB RHP Wilber Perez to the White Sox for RHP Joakim Soria and cash
July 27, 2018 – Traded RHP Jorge López and OF Brett Phillips to the Royals for 3B Mike Moustakas
July 31, 2018 – Traded 2B Jonathan Villar, MiLB RHP Luis Ortiz, and MiLB IF Jean Carmona to the Orioles for 2B Jonathan Schoop
August 31, 2018 – Traded MiLB RHP Johan Dominguez and MiLB IF/OF Bryan Connell to the White Sox for LHP Xavier Cedeño
August 31, 2018 – Traded MiLB C/1B KJ Harrison and MiLB IF Gilbert Lara to the Nationals for LHP Gio González and international bonus slot money
August 31, 2018 – Traded MiLB OF Demi Orimoloye to the Blue Jays for OF Curtis Granderson

Total Players Retained: Francisco Rodriguez (Controlled through 2017 with a club option), Cy Sneed (minors), Luis Sardiñas (Batted .111 for Baltimore in 8 2018 games), Adam Lind (Free Agent after 2016), Jason Rogers (Has spent time in NPB and indie ball), Jean Segura (FA 2019), Tyler Wagner (minors), Khris Davis (48 HR, FA 2020), Aaron Hill (FA after season), Jeremy Jeffress, Jonathan Lucroy (FA 2018), Will Smith (FA 2020), Tyler Thornburg (FA 2020), Martin Maldonado (FA 2019), Drew Gagnon (5.25 ERA in 12 IP for the Mets in 2018), Damien Magnifico (minors), Nick Franklin (re-signed), Garrett Cooper (60-Day DL for Marlins), Tayler Scott (minors), Eric Hanhold (7.71 ERA in 3 games with Mets), Monte Harrison (minors), Jordan Yamamoto (minors), Ji-Man Choi (10 HR in 221 PA), Kodi Medeiros (minors), Wilber Perez (minors), Jorge López (combined 5.03 ERA), Brett Phillips (great defense, 41.7 K%), Jean Carmona (minors), Johan Dominguez (minors), Bryan Connell (minors), KJ Harrison (minors), Gilbert Lara (minors), Demi Orimoloye (minors)

Total Players Never Acquired: Javier Betancourt, Manny Piña, Jonathan Villar, Ramon Flores, Carlos Herrera, Daniel Missaki, Freddy Peralta, Trey Supak, Keon Broxton, Isan Diaz, Chase Anderson, Aaron Hill, Bubba Derby, Jacob Nottingham, Wendell Rijo, Aaron Wilkerson, Lewis Brinson, Ryan Cordell, Luis Ortiz, Andrew Susac, Phil Bickford, Travis Shaw, Mauricio Dubon, Josh Pennington, Yeison Coca, Jett Bandy, Oliver Drake, Tyler Webb, Anthony Swarzak, Neil Walker, Christian Yelich, Erik Kratz, Brad Miller, Joakim Soria, Mike Moustakas, Jonathan Schoop, Xavier Cedeño, Gio González, Curtis Granderson

The first thing that stands out in all of this is the sheer volume of major transactions occurring for the Brewers in a relatively short period of time. Stearns has acquired more major league contributors than he’s given up, a further testament to the rapidity of his rebuild, but both lists are startlingly long. The man’s been busy.

The second thing is that, hey, a few good players around the league were Brewers in the not-too-distant past. A few of those players would still be under team control. Which brings us to…

2018 Bizarro Brewers Starting Lineup & Depth Chart

1. Lorenzo Cain (CF)
2. Jean Segura (2B)
3. Ryan Braun (RF)
4. Khris Davis (LF)
5. Jesus Aguilar (3B)
6. Eric Thames (1B)
7. Martin Maldonado (C)
8. Orlando Arcia (SS)
9. Pitcher

Depth
Left Field: Khris Davis, Ryan Braun, Domingo Santana, Ji-Man Choi

Center Field: Lorenzo Cain, Brett Phillips

Right Field: Ryan Braun, Domingo Santana, Brett Phillips

First Base: Eric Thames, Ji-Man Choi, Garrett Cooper

Second Base: Jean Segura, Hernán Pérez

Shortstop: Orlando Arcia, Jean Segura, Hernán Pérez

Third Base: Jesus Aguilar, Hernán Pérez, Garrett Cooper

Catcher: Martin Maldonado, Christian Bethancourt

Starting Rotation: Jhoulys Chacín, Zach Davies, Wade Miley, Junior Guerra, Brent Suter, Brandon Woodruff, Corbin Burnes, Jorge López, Adrian Houser, Tyler Wagner

Bullpen: Josh Hader, Jeremy Jeffress, Corey Knebel, Will Smith, Dan Jennings, Jacob Barnes, Tyler Thornburg, Taylor Williams, Matt Albers, Jordan Lyles, Quintin Torres-Costa, Nick Ramirez

DL: Jimmy Nelson, Stephen Vogt

What emerges is a surprisingly decent group, albeit one that would lose several key players to free agency following both the 2018 and 2019 seasons. Onto the head-to-head.

Pitching Staff
The absence of Chase Anderson and Freddy Peralta thins the crop of starting pitchers, but would also pave the way for Brandon Woodruff and Corbin Burnes to pick up some meaningful starts. Meanwhile, the bullpen still looks strong. Real Brewers pitchers combined for approximately 18 Pitcher Wins Above Replacement Player (PWARP) in 2018, placing them right in the middle of the league. The Bizarro Brewers pretty much measure up. Overall, the Brewers shed a total of 1.1 PWARP, mostly thanks to Gio González and Joakim Soria, but add that 1.1 back through Will Smith. It’s difficult to say how the Bizarro rotation would have fared, with inexperienced arms like Woodruff and Burnes assuming more important roles. But the pitching, on its face, seems to be more or less a wash.
Advantage: Even

Defense
Behind those pitchers, the defense would be a bit of a mess. Despite a strong presence up the middle (Maldonado, Arcia, Segura, and Cain), the corners look leaky, with third base threatening to approach 2007-Ryan-Braun levels of futility, and Khris Davis battling The Creature in left. Ryan Braun in right wouldn’t be too pretty, either. So while manager Craig Counsell could count on those big bats to create a lead, he’d likely yank them out of the game in the seventh or eighth inning in favor of Hernán Pérez, Brett Phillips, and Domingo Santana. Not the most comfortable system, but one that could work.
Advantage: Real Brewers

Offense
Real Brewers hitters had a terrific year, and come out on top of the Bizarro Brewers pretty handily. Christian Yelich and Travis Shaw combined for approximately 12.0 Batter Wins Above Replacement Player (BWARP) in 2018, handily beating the 7.3 BWARP compiled by Jean Segura and Khris Davis. Bizarro catcher Martin Maldonado contributes less than one BWARP-win behind the plate against Many Piña’s 1.5, and Christian Bethancourt isn’t a likely bet to replace the 1.4 BWARP accumulated by Erik Kratz. Jesus Aguilar’s value would be diminished at third base, and it’s tough to say how Thames and Choi would have responded to increased playing time.
Advantage: Real Brewers

Dingers
It’s close, but assuming they all get a full season of playing time, I’ll take the combined output of Davis-Aguilar-Thames-Braun over Yelich-Aguilar-Shaw-Braun. Playing in Miller Park, Khrush could have eclipsed Prince Fielder’s team record of 50 home runs in 2007.
Advantage: Bizarro Brewers

Final Thoughts
2018 is probably the best chance for the Bizarro Brewers to make the playoffs, as they stand to lose Martin Maldonado and Jean Segura (who never signed that extension in the Bizarro universe) to free agency after the season. They could always shell out for Daniel Murphy or DJ LeMahieu and patch their catching situation with Kurt Suzuki or Wilson Ramos, but that’s not exactly the Brewers’ style, plus they’ll lose Khris Davis, Will Smith, Jhoulys Chacín, and Tyler Thornburg the next year (with Braun and Thames not far behind).

Squint a little bit (and imagine a few lucky breaks going their way), and it’s not impossible to think that the Bizarro squad could have pushed for a Wild Card spot this season. But it’s also not hard to see that the Real Brewers are a stronger team right now, and will be a stronger team for years to come.

Which reminds me: Postseason baseball is here. Go Crew!

That ends today, when righty Freddy Peralta takes the mound in a spot start for the Brewers. Peralta is listed at 5’11”, 175 pounds, and quickly gained a reputation among the trio of Lind starters for a potential MLB role. In 2016, Peralta surged through Class-A Wisconsin, striking out 77 batters in 60 innings, while maintaining a relatively solid command profile. What is particularly interesting about Peralta is that the prospect allowed 35 percent ground ball rate in 2016, which ticked up to 51 percent when he was promoted to Advanced-A Brevard County before falling again in 2017. Thus far in 2018, Peralta made a strong transition to the difficult pitching confines of Triple-A Colorado Springs, bumping his ground ball rate up to 54 percent to go along with that big strike out rate (this time it’s 46 strike outs in 34.7 IP thus far). But now prospect analysts and fans can surmise Peralta’s groundball approach from his scouting profile: the righty is a moving fastball specialist, and one wonders if his repeated mechanical development and arsenal adjustments is allowing him to keep the ball on the ground at a more steady rate.

Freddy Peralta is a potential back-end rotation starter, but in Milwaukee that does not necessarily mean what it says, for two reasons. In the first case, one must emphasize that potential scouting roles, even those scouted in the advance minors, are not the be-all, end-all of player development; in fact, the David Stearns Brewers should demonstrate specifically how player development windows are much longer than the A-to-A+-to-AA-and-AAA progression. Zach Davies is a fantastic comparison for Peralta here, both in terms of advanced minors role (Davies was scouted as a high-floor back-end rotation arm prior to his debut), and diminutive arsenal development at the MLB level. Davies, the back-end sinker/change up pitcher, entered 2018 having prevented approximately 15 runs through 388.7 innings, which is quite strong at the back end. This does not necessarily mean that Peralta is a guaranteed rotational success (in fact, his scouting floor might ultimately place him in the bullpen, which is not necessarily a bad thing), but it is at the very least a hint that Milwaukee is a place where player development can extend to the MLB in an extremely positive manner.

Second, Freddy Peralta, along with Davies, Brent Suter, Junior Guerra, Jacob Barnes, Jeremy Jeffress, Oliver Drake, and even Chase Anderson, is one of the faces of the Brewers current pitching-first, depth-based strategy. The organization has been built around acquiring pitchers with very specific, and quite intriguing, profiles in the age of fireballing velocity around the MLB: the Brewers are a generally a slow-throwing bunch, and when they’re not a slow-throwing bunch, they are typically focused on change-up / curveball / cutter / splitter arsenals. Perhaps this is a feature that will become clearer over time with more player acquisitions, but thus far it seems unmistakable that Stearns and pitching coach Derek Johnson prefer a very particular type of profile to feed ground balls to the extremely efficient groundball defense.

This offseason, Freddy Peralta was featured as one of the Top 20 prospects in the system by Baseball Prospectus. Scott Delp wrote:

“One reason for the lack of hype is that Peralta has no show-stopping pitches. The fastball tops out at just 92, but he cuts it, runs it, sinks it, and can move it all around the zone. The changes in speed and movement allow him to keep hitters off balance. He is especially good at locating up in the zone to put hitters away. He also has a potentially plus slider with good late bite that he throws 84-86. He is looking for a reliable third pitch and can flash average with both a curve and change, but neither pitch has any consistency right now.”

Delp also added an essay to the end of the list, arguing that Peralta should be in the Top Ten, writing “Then there is profile bias. Certain players can get less notice because they are lacking the profile that we feel is necessary for true success.” Peralta fits this mold, as Delp noted:

“The conventional wisdom says that guys without a big fastball and without the classic pitcher’s body can only have success by either having a lot of deception in their deliveries or by having elite command. Peralta’s command is just a bit above average and, while he throws slightly across his body which gives him some deception, his results mostly come from his ability to change speeds and looks with his fastball and to mix his other pitches to keep hitters off balance.”

Peralta’s size and profile, in this sense, scream relief risk, and maybe a potential impact relief role or impact swingman role (like a righty Suter), for the future. But there’s a glimpse in a moving fastball arsenal that perhaps Peralta could stick in a back-end rotational role should his command continue to develop at the MLB (and, I’d add, that he continues his positive ground ball rate progression). Suddenly, though, Milwaukee is also becoming such a good pitching environment that one can squint at guys like Peralta and sense that maybe this is the best system in which for Peralta to work.

For Brewers fans wondering why the club did not acquire a pitcher such as Lance Lynn, Alex Cobb, Jeremy Hellickson, or Jake Arrieta during the offseason, and instead opted to work with Wade Miley and Jhoulys Chacin as the major rotational acquisitions, the Freddy Peralta promotion should serve as one particular answer. The Brewers are already exercising their depth, with Wade Miley injured, Brent Suter and Brandon Woodruff as swingmen, and Junior Guerra excelling. Moreover, though, the Brewers have correctly assessed a league filled with pitching attrition, and today the club will become the fourth National League team to work with eight starting pitchers thus far. Through roughly a quarter of the season, only one NL team (Colorado) has used five starters, and overall teams have used 102 pitchers to fill their rotation spots.

Milwaukee has designed their rotation to work with their advanced minors depth, and if fans are exciting about Freddy Peralta working, they should think about Corbin Burnes potentially taking the next rotational availability when needed. But that’s just one of many possibilities, as even newly-recalled Alec Asher fits the Stearns-Johnson Pitcher Factory profile as a relatively low velocity, sinker / cutter / change / curve hurler. Before too long, Milwaukee will probably have ten starting pitchers in the mix at the MLB level in 2018, and that’s before one even considers Jimmy Nelson’s position with the club. The rotation is quite serviceable with this approach (approximately -6 runs prevented thus far), and the mix-and-match rotational profile is basically serving as early innings damage mitigation prior to handing the ball off to an elite bullpen (24 runs prevented!). So, Peralta enters a successful pitching staff and an organization that seems perfectly suited for his continued development: here the hope is that the righty gets to showcase his best stuff today, and make the next decision regarding a spot start or an extended call-up a little tougher amidst all the future competition from Miley, Guerra, Nelson, and Burnes.