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	<title>Milwaukee &#187; Forrest Snow</title>
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		<title>Minor League Context: Arms</title>
		<link>http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/05/13/minor-league-context-arms/</link>
		<comments>http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/05/13/minor-league-context-arms/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 13 May 2017 14:13:33 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Nicholas Zettel]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Brandon Woodruff]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bubba Derby]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Forrest Snow]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jorge Lopez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Luis Ortiz]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Matt Ramsey]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Nick Ramirez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Paolo Espino]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Taylor Scott]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Trey Supak]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=8874</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Following the original April 25 Minor League Context post, and yesterday&#8217;s note on the batting environments for Brewers affiliates, it is time to look into the environments faced by system arms. I looked at pitchers with 13.0+ innings pitched thus far, which produced a smaller batch of pitchers than bats. Yet, many of the environmental [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Following the original April 25 Minor League Context post, and yesterday&#8217;s note on the batting environments for Brewers affiliates, it is time to look into the environments faced by system arms. I looked at pitchers with 13.0+ innings pitched thus far, which produced a smaller batch of pitchers than bats. Yet, many of the environmental factors hold across the diamond: the top prospects in Colorado Springs are (mostly) facing easy competition, Carolina and Biloxi are both facing rather tough environments and competition, and the Midwest League is split.</p>
<p>Let&#8217;s have a look at where the system stood for the previous update:</p>
<table border="" width="" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr bgcolor="#EDF1F3">
<th align="center">Affiliate (Players)</th>
<th align="center">Median oppOPS</th>
<th align="center">Median Age</th>
<th align="center">Brewers Park Factor</th>
<th align="center">Easy Competition?</th>
<th align="center">Tough Competition?</th>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">AAA Pacific Coast (228)</td>
<td align="center">.736</td>
<td align="center">27</td>
<td align="center">125</td>
<td align="center">Woodruff / Garza / Cravy / Suter</td>
<td align="center">Wang / Archer / Burgos/ Scahill/ Hader</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">AA Southern (130)</td>
<td align="center">.650</td>
<td align="center">24</td>
<td align="center">97</td>
<td align="center">Jungmann / Ventura</td>
<td align="center">Gainey / Derby / Snow / Ramirez / Lopez</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">Advanced A Carolina (105)</td>
<td align="center">.695</td>
<td align="center">23</td>
<td align="center">96</td>
<td align="center">No One</td>
<td align="center">Everyone</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">A Midwest (211)</td>
<td align="center">.675</td>
<td align="center">22</td>
<td align="center">109</td>
<td align="center">Myers / Drossner / Garza</td>
<td align="center">Desguin / Roegner / Jankins / Brown / Supak</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">Players With &gt;4.0 IP</td>
<td align="center"></td>
<td align="center"></td>
<td align="center"></td>
<td align="center"></td>
<td align="center"></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>Now, here&#8217;s the competition through May 12:</p>
<table border="" width="" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr bgcolor="#EDF1F3">
<th align="center">Brewers Affiliates (Arms)</th>
<th align="center">13+ IP</th>
<th align="center">Median oppOPS</th>
<th align="center">Park (Brewers)</th>
<th align="center">Tough Competition?</th>
<th align="center">Easy Competition?</th>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">Pacific Coast (AAA)</td>
<td align="center">157</td>
<td align="center">.751</td>
<td align="center">101 (118)</td>
<td align="center">Wang</td>
<td align="center">Cravy / Woodruff / Kohlscheen / Suter</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">Southern (AA)</td>
<td align="center">105</td>
<td align="center">.678</td>
<td align="center">95 (94)</td>
<td align="center">Almost Everyone</td>
<td align="center">Jungmann / Ventura</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">Carolina (A+)</td>
<td align="center">102</td>
<td align="center">.7155</td>
<td align="center">95 (101)</td>
<td align="center">Everyone</td>
<td align="center">No One</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">Midwest (A)</td>
<td align="center">163</td>
<td align="center">.683</td>
<td align="center">101 (112)</td>
<td align="center">Sanchez / Supak / Roegner / Desguin</td>
<td align="center">Webb / Myers</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>There are a few things worth noting here:</p>
<ul>
<li>Brandon Woodruff is whipping the Pacific Coast League, but he&#8217;s faced one of the easiest opposing OPS among regular pitchers. It is still worth digging into Woodruff&#8217;s solidly above average strikeout and walk rates, and also emphasizing that Woodruff has maintained his 48 percent groundball: 52 percent flyball ratios established at Class-AA Biloxi last season. Everyone is excited to see Woodruff take the next step to Milwaukee, but as with Lewis Brinson, take that shiny surface statistical performance with a grain of salt and expect a slightly more average MLB role.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>On the contrary, what role can one present for age-30 phenom Paolo Espino? In terms of scouting stuff, no one would place Espino ahead of Woodruff. Espino seems like a pitchability-supreme guy. And so he is, outpitching Brewers fans&#8217; current favorite pitching prospect while facing significantly tougher opponents (.756 oppOPS to Woodruff&#8217;s .724 mark). With Junior Guerra returning from the disabled list, and a series of rotating improvements among Brewers starters, Espino may find it easiest to sneak into an MLB bullpen role. But, handling a tough PCL does lead one to wonder whether Espino could start; we&#8217;ll split the difference and call him a pitchability swingman for 2017.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>We await scouting updates on Trey Supak, but as recently featured on BPMilwaukee, the young righty is maximizing his time in the Midwest League. Supak is posting the best strikeout-to-walk ratio among Wisconsin starters. For the future, watch his flyball rate (currently 66 percent) and look for scouting updates on Supak&#8217;s third pitch.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Might we praise the 19-16 Biloxi Shuckers, those Shuckers outplaying a sub-.500 run differential in an extremely tough environment? The Shuckers, the gem of the Brewers system breakout in 2015, are the forgotten affiliate in 2017, as the in-between prospects from last year&#8217;s forgettable Brevard County club and the remainder of 40-man roster depth and advanced minors veterans forge a supreme sub-hype crew. Shuckers bullpen leaders Matt Ramsey, Nick Ramirez, Taylor Scott, Forrest Snow, and Bubba Derby have a lot to say about that, with a cumulative 102.3 IP, 104 K / 46 BB / 7 HR (0.20 Fielding Independent Pitching ratio), and 32 runs allowed (2.82 runs average against an approximate 3.71 park-adjusted run environment, good for 10 runs prevented).</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>And yet they win, lead by Jorge Lopez and Luis Ortiz. Lopez and Ortiz have both faced notably tougher-than-median opponents, and within this duo Ortiz has faced even significantly tougher opponents still. But no sweat, as the median-age Lopez and very-young Ortiz are posting strong K:BB ratios. From here out, keep an eye on the flyballs, as both righties have flyball rates above 60 percent; this figure may fly in the suppressed environment of Biloxi, but could be very problematic at Miller Park (currently playing a 102 pitching park factor over thee years, according to Baseball Reference).</li>
</ul>
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