The Brewers offense was stymied once again, this time by Tom Koehler. The Marlins’ righty tossed eight innings of four-hit ball and struck out a career-high 10 Brewers en route to his ninth win of the year, lowering his ERA back under four in the process. For the Brewers, Ariel Pena made the first start of his major-league career in his second appearance since being called up last Friday. Pena was fine in five innings of two-run ball, which is about as good a start as the Brewers had a right to expect from the 26-year-old.

Speaking of major-league debuts, we’ll tab catcher Nevin Ashley as the Brewers’ MVP in a rough night at the plate for the hometown sqaud. Ashley was making his debut in relief of Jonathan Lucroy, who was held out for concussion-like symptoms and is likely to miss a few games. Ashley doubled to center in his first at-bat in the second inning, plating Khris Davis to give Milwaukee a 2-0 lead. It was a really nice moment for the 31-year-old journeyman, who has spent ten seasons with 11 minor league teams before finally getting the call up to The Show. Though he’s certainly not a part of Milwaukee’s plans long-term, or even next season, he’ll get a long-awaited taste of the big leagues over the next month.

KEY MOMENT

With the game tied at two, a runner on second, two outs, and a pair of lefties due up, Brewers manager Craig Counsell tabbed southpaw Will Smith to get the final out and keep the game level. Unfortunately (for those of us still pulling for the local nine to win their baseball games, anyway), the inexplicable trend of left-handed batters crushing Smith in 2015 continued. Dee Gordon walked on four pitches and Christian Yelich ripped a double to center that cleared the bases to give the Marlins a 4-2 advantage. Martin Prado would follow with a double of his own to score Yelich and give us our final.

Smith’s numbers this year are mind boggling. Here are his splits for 2013-14 (I’ve excluded 2012, when he was deployed as a starter and was mostly terrible against everyone):

In a moderately sized sample, Smith has dominated lefties relative to his work against right handers. The latter are hitting him at a rather healthy clip, but every lefty he’s faced has basically been Logan Schafer. Now, here’s what’s going on in 2015:

If you’re looking at this and you haven’t been following the Brewers this season, you’re going to go ahead and assume I accidentally switched those rows, because his splits this season are almost a perfect mirror of his numbers previous to 2015. This was an oddity in May, a curiosity in July, but now it’s September, and though there doesn’t seem to be any logical explanation for Smith’s struggles against lefties this season, it’s starting to look like something more than a statistical blip.

TWO THINGS TO WATCH

• The Brewers head to Pittsburgh on Thursday to wrap up their season series with the Pirates. They’ll look to continue to play spoiler against the Bucs, who despite a stark reversal of fortunes for both clubs continue to be haunted by Milwaukee, especially at Miller Park. The Brewers have taken eight of the last nine meetings between the two clubs, including a pair of sweeps in Milwaukee. The Pirates are sending A.J. Burnett to the mound tonight; he’ll be making his first start since July 30 as he spent August recovering from a flexor sprain in his right elbow. The Brewers are sending the youth squad to the mound these days, as all five starters in the rotation are now 26 years old or younger.
• The prospect-packed Biloxi Shuckers open the Southern League playoffs tonight against the Pensacola Blue Wahoos. The Brewer’s Double-A affiliate will send Jorge Lopez to the mound in game one, who was edged out for the Southern League ERA title by Tyler Wagner, who will start for the Shuckers on Saturday. Adrian Houser, a part of the trade with the Astros, will start Friday, and both of the first two games in the series will be available on MiLB.tv. The Blue Wahoos surged in the second half after finishing at the bottom of the division in the first half, edging Mobile and Mississippi by a game to secure a spot in the playoffs — Pensacola actually finished seven and seven and a half games behind each respectively in the overall standings. The winner of the best-of-five series will meet the winner between Montgomery and Chattanooga in the Southern League championship series.

The core pieces of the Brewers’ offense stepped up and carried the day, as the team pounded out 13 hits, drew a pair of walks, and plated nine runs. Adam Lind launched his 18th homer of the year, though it was his first since August 11, so Craig Counsell and his staff have to be pleased with their first baseman getting back in the power column. His solo shot off Joe Blanton proved important, too, as it countered the momentum Pittsburgh picked up in the top of the fifth inning, when Aramis Ramirez continued a torrid return to Milwaukee with a ground-rule double — his fourth RBI of the evening.

It wasn’t just Lind, though. Segura and Braun both collected three hits apiece, while Lucroy and Davis both got a pair. In essence, the club played to the narrative that our own Xavier Alatorre established on Wednesday, that the offense has actually performed rather well despite the poor overall win-loss record.

Right-hander Zach Davies also made his debut. He only lasted 4.1 innings, however, as he struggled with his command and Aramis Ramirez. In fact, the former Brewers third baseman was responsible for all four runs.

Davies missed with a fastball at the belt in the fourth inning, not getting the ball in enough on the hands of A-Ram, allowing him to square it up and deposit it over the left-center fence. The next inning, the right-hander spun a decent breaking ball low-and-away, but Ramirez reached out and hooked it down the line for a double. Neither pitch was particularly egregious. What it does, though, it illustrate the limitation of what Davies offers on the mound. While he can change speeds well and alter the eye levels of hitters, he doesn’t have the pure stuff to get by with mistakes. He’s a bit like Marco Estrada in that way.

KEY MOMENT

Perhaps this is overly sentimental, but the Brewers’ home crowd has been special in this series. Not in terms of attendance — the club only drew 24,521 fans on Wednesday — but in their demeanor, in their appreciation of the game and of the players.

On Tuesday, Ramirez homered in the ninth inning for the Pirates, and instead of groaning or booing, the Brewers faithful stood and applauded for Rammy. The home team securely held the lead. Thus, the cynical could perhaps argue that the fans only clapped because the win was already in the bag. I prefer the more sanguine view, in which the fan base is appreciative of good baseball and its team, in the past, present and future.

That extended to Wednesday evening, when Zach Davies received a standing ovation from the 24,000+ people in Miller Park as he left the mound after only 4.1 innings. He surrendered four runs and left the team in a rough spot; however, the fan base supported a future member of the club, someone who will hopefully remember the support shown by the fans, rather than his pedestrian performance.

Sentimental or not, I tip my cap to the Brewers fans over the past couple nights. It’s been pretty cool.

TWO THINGS TO WATCH

Milwaukee’s Double-A club, the Biloxi Shuckers, finish up their regular season with a five-game homestand. The Southern League playoffs are around the corner. Much of the attention has been paid to guys like Orlando Arcia and Brett Phillips, but it’s ridiculous to consider how dominant their starting rotation has been.

Jorge Lopez (2.29 ERA), Tyler Wagner (2.20 ERA), Josh Hader (2.94 ERA), and Adrian Houser (1.80 ERA) will be an absolute buzz saw for any opposing team to face. The encouraging thing, too, is that three of those arms are power arms with potential mid-rotation futures, while Wagner has a legit chance to stick at the back-end of a big-league rotation. The Brewers have not only kept the quartet intact for the Souther League postseason run, but they’re likely shielding them from the laughable run environment in Colorado Springs. I’m left wondering how much damage that location has done or will do to the Brewers’ pitching prospects. Breaking balls are tough to spin and routine fly balls regularly become homers. It’s too early to tell, I suppose.

Still, Biloxi’s rotation is nasty for Double-A. The Shuckers should have a good chance to bring home some hardware in 2015.

At the big-league level, Jonathan Lucroy is catching fire. He’s hitting .400/.444/.727 over his last 15 games, re-establishing himself as an elite catcher in the majors. It’s a luxury to have a two-win catcher in a down year that was shortened by injury. With his team-friendly contract and the fact that management seemingly has designs on competing in two or three years, it’s becoming more doubtful that the club will look to trade Lucroy this offseason.

If the new general manager has different ideas, though, and can change the mind of Attanasio, his recent torrid stretch will prevent the return price from dropping too low. He’ll remain one of the more valuable pieces in the National League.

The Brewers bounced back from a tough defeat on Saturday to beat the Reds 4-1 and take two out of three games in the series. The big story of the day was Wily Peralta. In his last two outings, he only pitched a combined 7.2 innings, allowing 10 runs, 15 hits, and only striking out three batters. However, against the Reds he tossed seven strong innings, surrendering only one run, while striking out six. After giving up the lone Reds run in the second inning, Peralta only allowed one runner to get past first base for the rest of his outing.

The offense was carried by Ryan Braun, Jonathan Lucroy and Jean Segura. Braun started the scoring with a home run in the first inning. After the Reds tied the game, Lucroy singled in Martin Maldonaldo in the third inning to make it 2-1 Milwaukee. This was the play with the highest WPA on the day, at .112. Milwaukee would not relinquish the lead again.

In the eighth, Segura and Lucroy provided the insurance runs. Segura hit Milwaukee’s first triple of the inning, scoring Maldonaldo again. Then Lucroy lofted a sac fly to score Segura and make the game 4-1. Francisco Rodriguez bounced back from his horrific appearance on Saturday to get his 31st save of the season.

TURNING POINT

Martin Maldonaldo scored the 2nd and 3rd Brewers runs yesterday. He led off both the third and eighth innings with a double, and Craig Counsell called for the sacrifice each time to get Maldonaldo to third. The Brewers were fortunate that each time, they were able to drive in the run from third. However, the team shouldn’t be giving away outs. They’re fourth in the National League in sacrifice hits, these strategies should only be deployed when one run is at a premium. The third inning of a tie game isn’t a pressing situation. Up to that point, the Brewers had made solid contact off of John Lamb’s offerings. Why not let that inning play out and see where it goes? At least in the eighth inning, the play wasn’t as detrimental to the Brewers chances of winning (-.001 WPA compared to the third inning’s bunt worth -.012). While it didn’t cost the Brewers, why waste the leadoff doubles. Let everyone hit and see what happens.

TWO THINGS TO WATCH

Peralta’s velocity had decreased in his previous start, and it seemed to come back yesterday. His fastballs usually hover around 95 MPH. However, in his disaster outing against Cleveland, he barely touched 95, and his four seam averaged 90.67 MPH, down from 95.33 MPH against San Diego on August 3. The velocity dip was troubling and that start was a disaster. Luckily, he recovered yesterday and regained that lost velocity. This will be something to keep an eye on through September, but that was a nice step in the right direction.

Milwaukee has an off day today before beginning a series with the Pirates on Tuesday in Milwaukee. Despite their disparate positions in the standings, the season series is currently tied ay six apiece. Jimmy Nelson takes the mound for Milwaukee. He’s looking to rebound from a poor outing last week against Cleveland where he only pitched 3.1 innings and allowed 5 runs. The Pirates took two of three from the Rockies this weekend, but closed the series with a 5-0 loss. Unfortunately for the Brewers, Gerrit Cole will take the hill in the series opener. This season Cole has a 2.44 ERA, 2.69 FIP, and 3.43 DRA.

In the last game in a two-game series against Cleveland, the Brewers were hoping to avoid the “sweep.” Despite putting seven hits on the board, the offense limped through nine innings as Milwaukee only mustered two runs across the plate. Unfortunately, Jimmy Nelson was just as dull as the offense. His line for the evening was 3.1 innings pitched, 83 pitches thrown, four strikeouts, and eight walks.

Although the Brewers drew first blood in the top of the second, the Indians capitalized on Nelson’s struggles in the bottom half of the inning. After seeing their first two batters go down, the Indians saw Abraham Almonte, Jerry Sands, and Jose Ramirez reach base; the latter two were both walked to load the bases. Jason Kipnis, who eats right-handed pitching for breakfast, smacked a double to left which brought home Almonte and Sands. And thanks to a throwing error by Khris Davis, Ramirez also scored, putting the Indians ahead 3-1.

Nelson continued to struggle in the bottom of the third. Again, the right-hander was able to get two early outs to start the inning. In between the first two outs, Lonnie Chrisenhall hit a double to center and advanced after Yan Gomes grounded out to third. A wild pitch would bring Chrisenhall home. Nelson followed up the wild pitch with a walk to Almonte and Sands. He eventually got out of the inning by getting Ramirez to fly out to left.

TURNING POINT

An uncharacteristic lack of command plagued Nelson from the start, but it was the second and third innings that were the turning point of the game. Nelson slogged through the first – throwing nineteen pitches – but he was able to get through without allowing a run. It was in the second and third in which he truly labored.

It took 50 pitches for him to get through both innings. Only eight of those pitches were called for a strike. Regardless of the pitch thrown, he struggled to find the strike zone.

Nelson had only given up four hits through this point in the game. However, each hit either preceded or was followed by walks that were unfortunately timed.

TWO THINGS TO WATCH

When looking at the pitches made by Nelson tonight, there was a difference in release points when compared to his previous four starts. This might explain his poor command.

Compared to his previous four starts, Nelson’s release point in tonight’s game is noticeably lower and to the right of the catcher. When looking at where his pitches were landing in relation to the strikezone, pitches were ending up on the lower right corner of the plate. According to Brewers beat writer Adam McCalvy, Nelson knew something was off all night.

Nelson frustrated he couldn’t get on top of pitches. “As far as things that I can control, that’s the worst game I’ve had in a long time.”

— Adam McCalvy (@AdamMcCalvy) August 27, 2015

We will have to wait for his next start to see if this was the case and if any adjustments have been made.

The Brew Crew will have the day off tomorrow before they host the Reds at home for a three-game series over the weekend. Starting Friday, Brewers fans will have the pleasure of seeing Taylor Jungmann on the hill. In 84.2 innings pitched, Jungmann is posting a 2.66 ERA, 2.99 FIP, and 3.05 DRA. Cincinnati and Milwaukee are firmly planted in the NL Central cellar. With Raisel Iglesias on the mound for the Reds, the Brewers have the advantage if the game comes down to a pitcher’s duel.

First pitch on Friday is 7:10 PM CT.

In a game that Milwaukee lost despite scoring six runs, we got a bitter taste of the pitching problems that have plagued the Brewers all season. Wily Peralta and Kyle Lohse have combined to throw over 200 innings in 2015, and they have combined for -1.2 WARP.

Peralta started this game and pitched poorly, and Lohse relieved him in the third inning and also pitched poorly. The defense didn’t help, but Peralta was disastrous in his own right. He missed Jonathan Lucroy’s target on a large percentage of his pitches, some of which ended up over the middle of the plate. After he allowed four runs (and eight baserunners) in just 2.2 innings, Lohse replaced him.

And as we have been conditioned to expect, Lohse was worse. Over the course of the season, he has ranked tenth-worst in WARP among all pitchers who have thrown at least 50 innings, and his performance on Tuesday fit that pattern. He allowed several hard-hit balls and walked two batters in just 2.1 innings—although he did manage to strike out three Indians.

The offense did its part, though. A pair of home runs from Jonathan Lucroy and one each from Ryan Braun and Domingo Santana powered the team to six runs, but the early damage done by the Brewers’ tandem starters proved to be too much to overcome.

TURNING POINT

The Brewers entered the fourth inning trailing 4-2, which is not an insurmountable lead — particularly against a pitcher such as Indians’ starter Josh Tomlin. Craig Counsell turned to Lohse the inning before to try and stem the tide, and he had gotten out of the jam he inherited from Peralta.

However, he had no such success in the fourth. Michael Brantley followed a Jason Kipnis walk with the first of his two two-run homers, extending the lead to 6-2. Other than that, it was an uneventful inning. However, that home run ultimately proved decisive.

First, it was a hugely important play in terms of win expectancy. Brantley’s home run was worth .117 WPA — the third most-impactful play of the game — and the Indians’ win expectancy was over 92 percent when the inning ended. It also came off the Brewers’ second pitcher of the game; if Milwaukee was going to win, they were going to need an extended and excellent performance from the bullpen. To this point, it was clear they were not going to get that.

Second, it was as indicative as anything else of the struggles of the pitching staff. Lohse missed his spot by a significant margin — which can be seen from how far Lucroy had to move his glove — and his fastball was down the middle and belt-high.

Brantley subsequently deposited it in the right-field bleachers. This was a pattern that repeated itself throughout the first half of the game with both Peralta and Lohse.

It is this aspect of the game that is the main takeaway. There is only so much that Jonathan Lucroy’s excellent framing can do if the pitchers are throwing meatballs down the middle of the plate.

TWO THINGS TO WATCH

The Brewers’ big-league club has been disastrous for most of this season. Therefore, it is not surprising that avid watchers of the team have begun to look to the future. And at this point of the season, some of the future has arrived in Milwaukee.

Domingo Santana made his debut with the major-league team on August 21. In the four days since, he has hit two home runs. His first one came on Friday, when he demonstrated his incredible bat speed.

His second came on Tuesday, when he demonstrated his prodigious strength. He took a fastball away, stayed through it, and crushed it to the opposite field.

Both of these swings explain the optimism around the young outfielder. One can also see the issues in his mechanics, though. He wraps the barrel of his bat before he brings it through the hitting zone, which can cause contact issues unless it is accompanied by incredible bat speed. Santana is certainly gifted, but he does not have the clean swing path that is preferable.

Orlando Arcia is a 20-year-old shortstop who jumped all the way from 93 to 31 in BP’s midseason prospect rankings and has had an excellent August. His .304/.326/.489 line is fantastic for a shortstop at any level, but it is even more incredible when his age is taken into account. He is just 20 and already in Double-A, where he is over four years younger than the average player in his league.

Jean Segura likely isn’t the future at shortstop, but Arcia might be. He probably won’t be a regular contributor until late 2016 or 2017, but he is absolutely worth paying attention to at this point. The Brewers have an eye on their future, and their fans should as well.

The game had an ominous beginning. Dee Gordon, the leadoff hitter for the Marlins, singled up the middle. He then stole second base and moved up on a passed ball to third. After a Martin Prado groundout, which scored Gordon, Derek Dietrich doubled. But the first early game blow came from Justin Bour, who hit a monster home run off starting pitcher Willy Peralta. It had an exit velocity of 108 mph and traveled 447 feet, putting the Brewers in an early 3-0 deficit in the first inning.

After the Marlins scored another run in the second to increase their lead to 4-0, Khris Davis showed the Brewers’ first sign of life, crushing a two-run home run to cut the deficit to 4-2. In the third inning, Peralta still was struggling, as he gave up yet another run and put the Brewers down 5-2 going into the bottom of the frame. In the bottom of the third, Ryan Braun walked, which was followed by an Adam Lind single. Khris Davis then came up to the plate and did this:

After an uneventful fourth inning, Peralta struggled in the fifth. He walked the leadoff hitter (Prado). Dietrich then bunted down the third-base line, which Peralta barehanded and threw it to first. The throw struck Dietrich in the back, allowing Dietrich to not only be safe at first base but Prado also moved to third with nobody out. Peralta was able to escape the inning giving up only one run, thus limiting the damage, but at the same time putting the Brewers down by one run.

In the top of the inning Martin Maldonado came up with the bases loaded and one out. He was able to single up the middle on a sharp line drive, driving in a pair of runs and giving the Brewers their first lead of the game. Craig Counsell replaced Peralta in the top of the sixth, and the rest of the game was basically smooth sailing.

Ryan Braun did add another run to the board by hitting his 252nd home run of his career, which made him the Brewers all-time leader in home runs, passing Robin Yount.

TURNING POINT

If you watched this game, the turning point could have been one of two hits. The Maldonado single up the middle, which drove in the winning run, or the Khris Davis three-run homer. Both played a significant part in the win, and without either, the result of the game would’ve been in serious doubt.

The Khris Davis home run, I think, was more significant. The Brewers trailed 5-2 at that point and with Wily Peralta pitching poorly it seemed as though the Marlins were poised to cruise towards the win along with a series sweep. But, with two outs and the first pitch of the at bat, Tom Koehler hung a curveball on the outer part of the plate, which Davis hit for a no-doubter to left-center field. It was his second homer of the day, which not only tied the game but also gave the Brewers much-needed life. Interestingly enough, both of Khris Davis’ home runs came off the first pitch. It was the fifth time he had done that this year, tying him for seventeenth in the league. The league leader in that category (first pitch home runs for 2015) is his teammate, Ryan Braun with 11. He also hit a significant home run later that game.

TWO THINGS TO WATCH

Wily Peralta didn’t pitch well this game; then again, Peralta hasn’t pitched well all year. His 127 DRA- is below average and one of the biggest problems is that he’s not striking anybody out. His 5.24 K/9 is worse than average and among starting pitchers with at least thirty innings pitched, he ranks 169th. Peralta’s K/9 for 2015 would be the lowest of his career, but he’s never been a guy who’s recorded a lot of strikeouts. In fact, the only time he’s even been around the league’s average was in 2012 when he made his major-league debut and recorded a 7.14 K/9. The only problem is that he only pitched 29 innings that season.

This might all seem strange since Peralta is one of the hardest throwing pitchers in all baseball. In his four seasons in the big leagues, Peralta’s average fastball always clocked between 94-95 mph. His fastball velocity since 2012 is ranked eighth among all starting pitchers.

So what gives? Doesn’t velocity have a good relationship with strikeouts? At least that’s the popular narrative. Let’s take a deeper look. The graph below only shows starting pitchers who’ve thrown at least thirty innings. (Peralta is the blue dot)

While fastball velocity does have a positive relationship with strikeouts, it doesn’t mean that throwing hard guarantees a lot of strikeouts. Take Nathan Eovaldi as another example. Since 2012 his average fastball velocity ranks third in all of baseball, yet he owns a career K/9 of 6.31, which is also below average. In most everything there are outliers, and the relationship between velocity and strikeouts is no different. Just because a pitcher throws hard doesn’t mean a pitcher will get a lot of strikeouts. Peralta is just another one of those outliers, and that’s not a good thing. If the right-hander wants to truly improve and earn more consistent success in the big leagues, he’s going to have to start striking out more batters. This doesn’t mean that he needs to be on a Chris Sale level, but at least get above average.

Tyler Cravy took the hill for the Brewers tonight and struggled mightily from the get-go. Despite getting the first two outs in four batters faced, Cravy had trouble keeping men off the basepaths in the first inning. Unfortunately, by the time Cravy got through his fifth batter of the inning (yikes!), the bases were loaded for former Brewers prospect Cole Gillespie. The matchup favored Cravy as Gillespie’s slash line against right-handed pitching had been .274/.322/.405. But of course, #YouCantPredictBaseball, and the 31-year old lined a triple into right field, sending home Ichiro, Prado, and Dietrich. With the tone set and the damage done, Cravy got the next batter out to end the top of the first.

If you had stopped watching before the start of the fourth inning, no one could have blamed you. By the time the Brewers put a run on the board, Cravy had given up four additional runs through the next two innings. Ryan Braun kicked off the bottom of the fourth with a single to right, though he would be the first out on a fielder’s choice. However, a subsequent series of hits from Davis, Rogers, Perez, Herrera, and Segura helped the Brewers chip away at the Marlins’ lead. By the end of the inning, Milwaukee produced four runs, making the score 7-4.

TURNING POINT

Sadly, the turning point for the game came in the following inning, the fifth. David Goforth had entered the game to relieve the struggling Tyler Cravy. The Brewers recalled Goforth from Triple-A on Friday and he was making his first major-league appearance since July 26th. The right-hander inherited a bases-loaded mess in the top of the third but managed to squash the threat. He navigated a scoreless fourth inning, as well. Though the top of the fifth started off incredibly well — getting Tomas Telis to groundout and striking out Jeff Mathis — the wheels fell off once Dee Gordon got on base and promptly stole second. Ichiro singled, which sent Gordon to third and thereby left second base open for the still speedy Suzuki, who stole second off Goforth. With two speedsters in scoring position, it only took a line drive single from Prado to put the Marlins ahead 9-4.

TWO THINGS TO WATCH

What doomed Goforth was an errant 95-mph fastball that sat too high in the zone. Prado’s single was the death knell on an otherwise solid two innings pitched by the rookie reliever. Keeping Gordon and Ichiro in check is difficult for any reliever, even more so for a rookie such as Goforth. Currently, Goforth is posting a 2.66 percent TRAA (Takeoff Rate Above Average) and 4.76 DRA, indicating that he is allowing baserunners to take off quite often while he is pitching and allowing them to score as a result. Granted these numbers are being looked at after only 6.1 innings pitched, but it will be interesting to see if the 26-year old rookie is able to keep baserunners in check as he progresses in the majors. It’s often a skill that young pitchers struggle to learn.

For your immediate attention, tomorrow’s game will feature Wily Peralta facing off against Tom Koehler. Peralta is a victim of the same problem that plagues Goforth, emboldening baserunners to steal. Peralta’s TRAA on the season is 5.04 percent and he will be facing a team that ranks first in the league in Baserunning Runs (BRR). If the Brewers hope to avoid a sweep, they must put the game away early to give Peralta some breathing room instead of trying to rally in the ninth, as they attempted to tonight.

Matt Garza pitched poorly again, allowing five runs on eight hits over five lackluster innings. The Brewers took an early 1-0 lead in the bottom of the second inning when Adeiny Hechavarria booted a one-out grounder from Shane Peterson, allowing Khris Davis to score from third following a double from Hernan Pérez. Unfortunately, the Brewers’ lead was short-lived, as the Marlins answered with a pair of runs in the third and fourth, and another in the fifth, to put the game out of the reach of Milwaukee’s struggling offense. Elsewhere in wildly-disappointing veteran pitchers, Kyle Lohse came in to finish the game, lowering his ERA to 6.11 by allowing a run over two innings. Betwixt Garza and Lohse, Tyler Thornburg pitched a pair of scoreless frames.

For the Marlins, Justin Nicolino was solid, if not spectacular, in his fourth career start, continuing a trend from throughout his short major-league career. He earned his second quality start — for whatever that’s worth — and generated a steady stream of ground balls, even while his strikeout numbers remained depressed (Nicolino has now struck out just seven batters over 23.1 innings).

TURNING POINT

Staked to a 1-0 lead, Garza quickly found himself in trouble in the top of the third, giving up a pair of singles to J.T. Realmuto and Hechavarria to put runners on the corners with nobody out. A poor bunt from Nicolino that traveled just a couple of feet had Jonathan Lucroy thinking about taking the force at second, and his hesitation nearly allowed the Marlins’ pitcher to reach safely at first. With a pair of runners in scoring position, Dee Gordon laced the first pitch he saw to left, plating a pair and giving the Marlins the lead for good.

It’s one thing to surrender a lead just an inning after your offense went and seized it for you, but to do so against the bottom of the order adds insult to injury. Garza has been crushed by the bottom third of the order this season, allowing an .847 OPS to non-pitchers batting in the 7-9 spots entering play Monday — a figure that’s only 10 points worse than his numbers against the heart of the order. Garza had actually be pitching more effectively of late, with a 2.55 ERA over his previous four outings, so it was disappointing to see the 31-year-old reverting back to his old ways.

TWO THINGS TO WATCH

For folks wanting to catch a glimpse of the future, Biloxi Shuckers’ ace and Brewers ninth-best prospect (according to MLB.com) Jorge Lopez toes the mound Tuesday evening against the Jackson Generals, Seattle’s Double-A affiliate. Lopez leads the Southern League in wins, for those of you who are still interested in such stats,  and has been absolutely dominant of late:

Since June 2, Jorge Lopez is 8-3 with a 1.67 ERA (15 ER/81 IP)76 K's, 23 BB's 0.96 WHIP and a .193 Opp. AVG over 12 starts. #Dominant

— Biloxi Shuckers (@BiloxiShuckers) August 13, 2015

With the big league club, on the other hand, right-hander Tyler Cravy will get another crack at it on Tuesday as he squares off against fellow rookie Adam Conley. Neither has been very effective thus far in their young careers, as both Cravy and Conley have ERAs in the fives and carry rather unsightly 1.6 and 1.8 strikeout-to-walk ratios, respectively. Tickets remain available for fans interested in seeing what happens when two bad offenses take on a pair of rookie pitchers — the easily-stopped force meets the quite-agreeable-to-moving object, if you will.

Ryan Braun and Taylor Jungmann happened. Braun kicked off the scoring in the first, scoring Jonathan Lucroy on a groundout to shortstop. Lucroy had previously tripled to to right. On that triple, he busted out of the box and had three on his mind the whole way; his path was made easier by the Phillies mishandling the relay throw. What could have been a close play at third base turned into a no-contest. In the fifth after an Elian Herrera single made the score 2-0, Braun came up with the bases loaded and launched a grand slam, making the margin 6-0, and effectively ending the game.

On the other side of the ball, Taylor Jungmann pitched brilliantly. He went for 6.1 innings, only allowing three hits and two walks, while striking out nine. He struck out the side in both the first and third innings, and only really ran into trouble in the fourth. He allowed a hit and a walk, and after a wild pitch, runners were on second and third with two outs. However, he induced a ground ball from Domonic Brown to end the inning.

Neal Cotts entered the game in the ninth to seal the win, but needed Francisco Rodriguez to close it out as he struggled to put away the Phillies. While their win expectancy never dipped below 99.7 percent, Cotts allowed a solo home run to Andres Blanco and then loaded the bases with two outs via two singles and a walk. K-Rod came in get the last out for his 29th save of the season

TURNING POINT

The biggest turning point in the game was Braun’s grand slam. The Brewers had Aaron Harang on the ropes in the fifth. The veteran right-hander started the inning by allowing a double to Scooter Gennett, then got a quick out before Herrera plated him. Jungmann stepped into the box, and Craig Counsell called for a bunt, his second of the inning. Instead of backfiring and giving away another out, Jungmann reached first and Herrera was safe at second. The bunt was fielded by Harang, but it was close enough to first to draw Ryan Howard off the bag. Cesar Hernandez sprinted from second to try and cover first, but Jungmann pushed it down the line to beat him. Though the play was only worth 0.02 WPA, it set up the rest of the inning. After a Shane Patterson fly out, Lucroy walked. Braun then hit the grand slam, making the score 6-0 and pushing the Brewers win expectancy to 98 percent.

Jungmann also deserves kudos for his pitching performance. He suffered through a rough outing against St. Louis in his last start — throwing only 43 of his 81 pitches for strikes, only inducing two grounders while allowing nine fly balls, and striking out three batters, his fewest this season (though to be fair it was his shortest outing).

He reversed all of those trends yesterday. He pounded the strike zone, getting 68 strikes on his 100 pitches, his GB/FB was 3.50, and he struck out nine. In particular, he shook off that wild pitch in the fourth inning that put runners on second and third with two outs. Instead of losing focus, he bore down and escaped the inning two pitches later.

TWO THINGS TO WATCH

The Brewers swept the series this weekend, giving them three sweeps this season. Of course, two of those were against the Phillies. Milwaukee will finish the season 7-0 against Philadelphia. Last time these teams played, the Brewers followed up that series with another sweep against Cincinnati. This time, Miami comes into town. They just lost two of three to St. Louis, and are missing stars Jose Fernandez and Giancarlo Stanton. Hopefully the Brewers can keep the win streak going and make fans harken back to the halcyon days of late June/early July.

Baseball is a game built on numbers. Regardless of whether you have an analytical lean or prefer the traditional numbers, they are the currency used when debating abilities of different players. Seeing Ryan Braun tie Robin Yount’s mark for career home runs as a Brewers was a special moment, and it was a moment deserving of the curtain call which followed the hit. Braun is this generation’s career Brewer. His ascent up the all-time list has been enjoyable to watch in a season where things have gone askew. Though he likely isn’t leaving any time soon due to his contract, I hope that instead of focusing on the negatives of the year, fans take a moment to appreciate Braun and his place in Brewers history.

After Milwaukee took a 1-0 lead in the first inning, the Brewers and Padres remained locked in a stalemate for the next frame and a half despite putting men on the basepaths. The third inning was shaping up to look like the previous two as Matt Garza started things off by retiring the side. The Brewers kicked off the bottom half of the third with a lineout. However, after Ryan Braun walked and following a single from Adam Lind, Khris Davis opened the floodgates with a dinger over the right-field wall (+.161), putting the Brew Crew up 4-0.

Davis is hitting .236/.321/.458 this season. Yet, when he is facing right-handed pitching, like he did against Despaigne today, he is destroying baseballs. In fact, if we parse his numbers even further, he is absolutely dominating right-handed pitchers at home.

Of course, there is a difference of 43 at-bats between his home and away games versus righties, which could explain the variance between his splits to a degree. However, the fact that he is striking out significantly more while on the road is more likely to be the cause behind such drastic difference in numbers. Whatever the reason, Khris Davis, must keep doing what he has been doing at home and try to take some of it on the road.

BOTTOM PLAY (WPA)

The Brewers were on top for the entire game, and decidedly so from nearly the beginning. It is easy to forget that in the top of the second, the Padres had a chance to put the Brewers on the ropes. At the top of the frame, Matt Garza served up a walk to Justin Upton. Despite getting Brett Wallace to strike out, Derek Norris singled to center which put runners on the corners. With only one out tallied at this point, the Padres were in a spot to make something happen. Of course, in true Padres fashion, nothing happened. Clint Barmes bunted out to Adam Lind (-.074), setting up a two-out at-bat for the perennially bad Melvin Upton. Upton would ground out, thus ending the inning.

KEY MOMENT

The top of the second was a tenuous inning for both teams. For the Padres, the inning could not have started off any better. Justin Upton’s at-bat resulted in a walk after seeing the first pitch drop in for a ball, fouling off the next three, and then watching the proceeding three pitches land out of the zone. This is where the game could have had an entirely different outcome. After walking Upton with three straight balls and starting off Wallace’s at-bat with a ball, Garza appeared to have trouble finding the zone. So far this season, Wallace has been punishing right-handed pitching. An errant pitch by Garza would have meant trouble. If Wallace was able to get at least single, then the Padres would have had the tying run in Upton at either second or third with Derek Norris at the plate.

Instead, Garza went after him with a three fastballs and a curve, two pitches against which Wallace is likely to whiff.

It may look as if Wallace has drastically improved when facing hard-thrown pitches; however, he has only made five plate appearances in August. By getting Wallace to strike out, this left the speedy Upton (+3.8 BRR) at first instead of in scoring position.

TREND TO WATCH

Including today, over the last three games, the Brewers managed to get eleven hits on the board. In fact, in the last two weeks — arbitrary endpoint, I know —  there have only been two games in which Milwaukee has garnered less than six hits in a game. More importantly, if we take a look at the team’s on-base percentage, the best indicator of run-scoring, then there is hope for Milwaukee as they have steadily improved their OBP month-to-month in 2015. Here is how they have shaped up compared to the rest of the division.

Only six games have been played in August thus far. Nonetheless, it is a positive sign when the team that is in the cellar is improving in a critical offensive category while the team with the best record in baseball is having difficulty getting on base. That is not to say that the Brewers are on their way to close a twenty-three-game gap, as their issues go well beyond getting on base, but it is nice to see the lineup come to life.

COMING UP NEXT

The Brewers will host their division rivals, the St. Louis Cardinals, over the weekend. Tyler Cravy will face Lance Lynn. Cravy, who has pitched fifteen innings this season, was recalled from Triple-A Colorado Springs after Kyle Lohse was assigned to the bullpen. His first taste of The Show was in June when he pitched against the Cardinals. In that performance, Cravy went seven innings, gave up one run over four hits and struck out six batters.

St. Louis’ Lynn is coming off a hot June and July campaign. In 55.2 innings pitched, Lynn posted a 2.12 ERA. His last start was a departure from what his opponents have faced, giving up seven hits and four runs through five innings. It was more than likely a fluke as he has otherwise been solid throughout the season. The Brewers will have a tough hill to climb.

First pitch is at 7:10 pm CT.