Khris Davis does three things poorly for which some fans cannot seem to forgive him. He strikes out more than the league-average player, has a low batting average, and has a poor arm. These are hindrances that Gerardo Parra does not share. That’s all the fans in question need to know in order to pass judgement and pick a favorite. But, of course, there is more to being a good baseball player. There are also ways of making up for deficiencies.

Khris Davis has two distinct advantages over Gerardo Parra — he hits for power and draws walks at an above-average rate. Take a look at their season stats side by side:

As you can see, Parra has a clear advantage in batting average. He beats Davis by a whopping forty-one points. But that’s the only area where Parra has a distinct advantage. He only bests Davis by two points in on-base percentage while Davis has a fifty-five point lead in slugging. In both advanced metrics — weighted runs created plus and true average — Davis comes out well ahead.

Obviously, Davis’ huge power advantage plays a large part in giving him the offensive advantage. But his greater ability to draw walks should not be ignored. He has a 10.1 percent walk rate versus Parra’s paltry 4.8 percent. Parra gets more base hits, but because of the disparity on walk rates, the two actually get on base at nearly the same rate. In other words, even though Davis doesn’t get as many base hits, he’s not making more outs than Parra.

It’s still true that Parra holds a sizable advantage defensively. But Davis’ offense comes very close to making up for his poor defense and depending on the metric allows him to surpass Parra in total value.

FanGraphs’ WAR metric is the only one that prefers Khris Davis to Gerardo Parra. But both Baseball Reference and Baseball Prospectus have the two within 0.2 points. That’s no functional difference. It’s also important to note the disparity in playing time. Parra has 143 more plate appearances, in part because Khris Davis needed mid-season knee surgery. WAR is accumulative, meaning it can go up or down with more playing time. It’s possible with equal playing time Davis could surpass Parra in wins above replacement. Of course, the reverse is also true.

It seems many prefer Gerardo Parra because he excels in the more traditional areas — batting average, strikeout rate, and defense. Khris Davis is perceived to be a worse player than he is because many people are still biased against players with poor batting averages and high strikeout numbers. But when you use better descriptive and more encompassing statistics — OBP, wRC+, TAv, WAR — it becomes clear that the two are at the very least on equal footing with respect to overall value or wins above replacement. And Davis is objectively the superior offensive player.

Grantland || #LOLMets: The Carlos Gomez Deal Falls Through, the Dodgers Confuse Everyone, and Cole Hamels Finally Gets Dealt on a Supremely Bizarre Night

Wednesday was one of the strangest days of my baseball-following lifetime. Two days before the non-waiver trade deadline, the best shortstop in the league was dealt to the NL East and a top-ten pitcher was finally released from baseball hell (AKA Philadelphia) 12 years after he was drafted. However, absolutely no one cared because the Mets butchered the evening so badly that the baseball world couldn’t take its eyes off the train wreck.

It’s hard to know where to even begin to describe how thoroughly the Mets blew the day. They refused to remove a visibly emotional Wilmer Flores – who was to be a part of the trade that wasn’t – until well after he and the rest of the world was informed of his pending trade. After the deal fell through as the Mets turned the evening into a weird episode of Extreme Couponing, Mets GM Sandy Alderson dragged Carlos Gomez’s health through the mud in a shockingly absurd attempt to save face following another blunder from the league’s most farcical franchise this side of the Grand Canyon.

Baseball Prospectus || Transaction Analyis: Houston is Hip to Gomez

Surprising absolutely no one, it turned out that the rest of the league didn’t care about the Mets’ fictional worries regarding Gomez’s hip. On Thursday, the former Brewers center fielder (boy, is it hard to write that) was dealt for the second time in two days when Houston offered a monster deal for him and right-hander Mike Fiers. Led by our own J.P. Breen, the Baseball Prospectus team takes an in-depth look at Thursday’s blockbuster — including in-depth looks at the quartet of prospects now in Milwaukee’s system.

Grantland || Trading Futures: The Sub-.500 Rangers Get Cole Hamels for 2016 and Beyond

Jonah Keri has a nice write-up of the Rangers’ somewhat puzzling (at first glance) trade for Cole Hamels, given Texas’s current position in the standings. Trailing the division-leading Astros (I can’t believe I’m typing those words in late July and it’s not 2017) by eight games and the wild card by four, the Rangers are barely in the race for a playoff spot. However, anticipating the healthy return of Yu Darvish (knock on wood) and the permanent addition of top prospect Joey Gallo to the lineup next season, they pulled the trigger on a trade for an affordable ace who is signed through at least 2018. However, as Brewers fans are acutely aware, deals that take pitchers into their mid-late 30s rarely end well, and the Rangers will be paying the second half of a deal for a pitcher who will turn 32 in the offseason. The Rangers hope that Hamels can be one of the rare 30-somethings who age gracefully.

Brew Crew Ball || Adrian Houser scouting report: Right handed pitcher acquired by Brewer in Carlos Gomez trade

You’ll be able to find plenty of information about Brett Phillips, Domingo Santana, and Josh Hader, the three impact prospects the Brewers acquired in the Gomez and Fiers trade. Here, Noah Jarosh has a nice piece about the fourth player Milwaukee received in yesterday’s blockbuster, right-handed pitcher Adrian Houser. A second-round pick in 2011, Houser has not developed the way the Astros had hoped, but he hasn’t been Eric Arnett-awful (he owns a 4.30 ERA and has only walked some of the batters he’s faced, instead of all of them) and perhaps a change of scenery can help the 22-year-old right the ship.

Baltimore Sun || Zach Davies’ selection to Futures Game ‘well deserved’

News broke on Friday morning that Gerardo Parra was dealt to Baltimore in exchange for right-hander Zach Davies, the Orioles third-best prospect according to MLB.com (he will disappear from this list when the trade becomes official):

Source: #Orioles closing in on #Brewers’ Parra. Deal expected to be Parra for RHP Zack Davies, straight up.

— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) July 31, 2015

Ken will want to note that Zach spells his first name correctly, with an H, so as not to be confused with the actual Zack Davies, who is literally a racist homicidal maniac. The above article from Jon Meoli earlier this month is about Davies being selected to participate in the All-Star Futures Game. Davies is a great return for a two-month rental who would have provided Milwaukee no value beyond helping them win a couple of meaningless ballgames the rest of the way in 2015.

The Brewers continue an impressive, albeit unsexy, reload. Parra was a cheap grab at last year’s trade deadline, and while the team went 66-90 during his tenure, he can hardly be faulted. Parra batted .312/.355/.482 in 146 games in a Brewers uniform, and again, that versatility in the outfield was as valuable as the actual quality of his play out there.

Now Parra has done the most valuable thing yet for the Brewers, though, by bringing more in return than he cost to acquire. Davies is no future star, but he could pitch in the big leagues this season, and as Doug Melvin continues spinning off his spare parts, he can look ahead to a rebuild free of some of the limitations he faced when he built this team in the first place.

[To read about the remainder of the Gerardo Parra trade, please visit Baseball Prospectus’ main site and read the entire article, written by Matthew Trueblood and Tucker Blair. The article can be found here.]

Broxton Goes to St. Louis for Malik Collymore

Raw because of spending his amateur days playing in the Great White North, Collymore does show some refinement with the bat for a player with limited experience. He has struggled this year in his first experience off of the Cardinals complex, but he does show the skill set to be a potential above-average hitter, including a short swing path and strong wrists. He’s likely limited to gap power at best, but he does understand how to drive the ball. His bat would profile better at second base where the Cardinals played him last year, but the lack of power could hinder him if he remains in a corner outfield position.

[To read more about Malik Collymore and how Jonathan Broxton fits in St. Louis, visit Baseball Prospectus’ main site and read the entire article, written by R.J. Anderson and Jeff Moore. The article can be found here.]

Keeping that date and the trade deadline in mind, the Brewers have had a full three months to sell this year. But up to this point, management has only managed to export the retiring Aramis Ramirez in exchange for a relief-arm lottery ticket. The rebuild that was expected never came. In fact, calling what took place a “remodel” sounds awfully generous. Rather, the Brewers have simply nudged a couch to face a different angle, then called it a day.

And don’t expect any major splashes the rest of the week, either. Our own Derek Harvey speculated just yesterday that, based on past history, the only names with a realistic chance to get moved are Gerardo Parra and Neal Cotts. Of these two, Parra is the more interesting name to discuss by far.

Exactly a year ago, at almost this exact point in the season, the Brewers acquired Parra from Arizona for a modest haul of expendable minor-league talent. The plan was for him to provide outfield depth as the Brewers chased a postseason berth. But nothing ever seems to go according to plan, and Milwaukee squandered that shot at postseason play in September. To his credit, however, Parra produced a full half-win of value after the trade, and he’s produced almost two more wins to date this year. The decision to bring him back for one more year was a smart one.

This summer, deciding what to do with Parra isn’t so simple. He’s eligible for full-blown free agency, which means he should get more expensive than the $6.4 million he was paid this season. Dexter Fowler and Colby Rasmus are similar outfielders with well-rounded offensive skill sets and the capability to man any outfield position, and they each make approximately $9 million per season. Parra should get about that on the open market — which, unfortunately, means that Milwaukee will get nothing for compensation if he goes, as a qualifying offer would be imprudent.

The Brewers just suffered through an epic September collapse followed by a season that was dead as soon as the snow melted. This off-season, though, the franchise looks to shed between $30 and $50 million in payroll. With no future third baseman, and a pitching staff in tatters, is the right move really to reinvest north of 20 percent of the team’s bankroll back into another outfield option?

Because with Ryan Braun, Carlos Gomez, and Khris Davis in the fold, the team is better off moving on from Parra. And because of his contract situation, they would be best off doing this quickly — as in, before Friday.

The good news is, right now, the suitors for Parra’s service are plentiful. As we’ve already established, he has the versatility to play all three outfield positions and provides offensive value in multiple ways. To several contending teams, this makes him a veritable knight in shining armor. CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman has identified four teams, in particular, who have reached out to the Brewers to express their interest in Parra.

But even among these interested parties, not all of the destinations make sense.

4. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

@JonHeymanCBS I believe Angels also have interest in #Brewers Gerardo Parra.

— Tom (@Haudricourt) July 28, 2015

At one point, the Angels were interested in acquiring Parra. Since that point, however, they’ve added Shane Victorino, David DeJesus, and David Murphy. Even without Parra, that’s an overcrowded outfield. They’re still on the list, I guess, but the only way they’ll trade for Parra is if more than one of their new acquisitions succumbs to a season-ending injury in the next few days. Don’t hold your breath.

Had the Angels made a play for Parra, a potential price would have been 24-year-old third baseman Kyle Kubitza. Kubitza possesses a profile that should be familiar to Brewer fans who remember Russell Branyan — all the power in the world, a very limited ability to translate that power to in-game success thanks to frequent swings and misses, and defensive skills that can never quite reach the level of “average.” It’s less than the Brewers could concievably get elsewhere, and it’s also far more than the Angels paid for any of their three new outfielders.

The Angels’ only real trade chip is left-hander Sean Newcomb, who is a far better trade chip than the Brewers should be able to acquire for Parra. He’s arguably a top-100 prospect in all of baseball.

In short, this was a deal that never would have happened.

3. Mystery Team

Heyman identifies four different teams in the mix, but only three of them are known by name. The fourth team remains unidentified.

Without knowing the identity of the final franchise, it is difficult to say that they rank ahead of any of the teams we do know–except for the Angels. Even before Los Angeles went and traded for three different outfielders, they still held the 28th-best farm system in baseball. Since neither of the two teams ranked below them — Detroit or Miami — are perceived to be buyers at the deadline, we can safely assume that the mystery team has a deeper war chest than the Angels with the ability to outbid them.

The mystery team might be an invention of a team source — a fabrication that was leaked to a reporter in order to drive up the price on Parra. It might be a legitimate trading partner. It might be the Dodgers looking to swap Yasiel Puig for Parra straight up.

Okay, that last one is a definite “no way.” But I think I’ve made my point. Speculating on what might be coming from a team that we can’t identify is frustrating and pointless.

Still, two more named contenders remain, and either one would be an ideal trading partner.

2. Baltimore Orioles

The Orioles are 49-49, still within reach of a wild card berth. This is despite the fact that their corner outfield spots have put up spotty production, at best. Delmon Young started the season in the starting lineup, but played so poorly the Orioles gave him his outright release. Alejandro de Aza, too, was let go for no compensation. David Lough has been a sub-replacement-level player — though unlike Young and de Aza, he remains on the roster. Travis Snider has accumulated over 200 plate appearances in left and has been worth only a tenth of a win. Chris Parmelee and Nolan Reimold have both seen extended playing time in the outfield, and neither one is a particularly good player.

For all of the excitement that players like Manny Machado and Chris Davis can bring to the table, the Orioles outfield — save for Adam Jones — has been terrible. They need someone like Gerardo Parra, and they need him right now.

The Orioles’ 22nd-ranked farm system does not run deep, but still manages to carry an abundance of top-tier potential. Kevin Gausman and Dylan Bundy are both off the table if we’re talking about just Parra — but with two holes in the outfield and two potential aces with which to work, the Orioles may just decide that they want to make a play at both Parra and Carlos Gomez. If so, they’ve got the high-end talent to make such a deal happen.

But even if they decide not to bottom out the farm system and push for this year, the Orioles have a handful of interesting pieces that the Brewers could get for just Parra. Josh Hart is a 20-year-old outfield prospect who has yet to post numbers commensurate with what the scouts say he’s capable, but he struggled through an aggressive full-season assignment in 2014 and has shown notable improvement across the board in 2015. Stephen Tarpley has the potential to start and 2015 has been his best season as a professional. Teenage third baseman Jomar Reyes is a future star, according to some. And players like Christian Walker, Mike Wright, and Mike Yastremski offer safe, low-ceiling alternatives. Either way the Brewers want to go — swing for the fences or just try to make contact — the Orioles can seemingly facilitate it.

1. New York Mets

Nobody expected the Mets to compete; before the season, the National League East was essentially handed to Washington. But a roaring April vaulted the Amazins’ to the division lead, and a precociously good starting rotation has kept them in the hunt — even as Washington has overcome their injury troubles and re-taken the pole position.

Unlike the Orioles, the Mets have a need specifically in center field. Though the corners have been plenty productive thanks to the efforts of Curtis Granderson and Michael Cuddyer, center fielder Juan Lagares has not been a replacement-level player this season. And with the Mets surprisingly in the thick of the playoff race, Lagares — who does not have an extensive track record of success at the major league level–is a prime candidate to get replaced.

The Mets were linked to Carlos Gomez at one point, but have presumably decided to push for the Brewers’ more affordable outfield option in the past couple of days. Parra is not as capable in the field as Gomez, but the overall picture would undoubtedly still be an upgrade over Lagares, who has dealt with nagging injuries all year. While the Mets would have almost certainly been forced to give up young, potential impact players in a deal for Gomez, Parra should come far more cheaply.

But still, even though the Mets would be paying less, the Brewers would be getting more. New York’s farm system came into this season ranked among the five best in the game. The number of worthwhile players in their system is so much more than anyone else discussed up to this point. Marcos Molina, as one example, would be considered untouchable by some franchises. In New York, the abundance of starting pitching makes Molina one of the most attractive targets to move. Michael Conforto, the latest big-hype rookie to make his debut during 2015, was ranked just ninth on their Top 10 prospects this past winter. If New York wants to, they could trump pretty much any offer that any other interested party throws on the table.

But two things work against the Mets here, and they’re important. First, New York has shown a wariness to pay market value for veteran talent this season. Secondly, and perhaps more importantly, their stingy approach to the Aramis Ramirez sale belies a team that is trying to minimize cost and not give up anything that will hurt them down the line. But in this situation, if the Mets try to play hardball, the Brewers have other options — and with Parra’s contract coming to an end, they’ll pursue those options aggressively.

*****

Things may not have gone according to plan. When Milwaukee added Gerardo Parra to the roster a year ago, the front office foresaw him coming off of the bench to contribute to a playoff run. But the change in circumstances means that the Brewers are not a playoff team, and Parra — set to get paid in free agency — is not a good fit for the Milwaukee roster going forward.

So while the Brewers might never get to live out those championship dreams, they can at least make a decent profit as MLB day-traders this time around. Parra was brought in for two fringy minor leaguers a year ago, and he stands to fetch the team something far more valuable in the next couple of days.

With one out, one on, and one run already scored in the top of the first, Brewers first baseman Adam Lind, who had missed the previous two games after being pulled in the third inning of Milwaukee’s loss to Arizona on Saturday with a sore back, ripped a single to right field to give the Brewers an early 2-0 lead (+.082 WPA). The Brewers would end up needing one more run to secure the win (another RBI from Lind in the third), but the Brewers put themselves in great position to win with a big first inning.

BOTTOM PLAY (WPA)

Trailing 4-0, the Giants got a pair of singles and a fielder’s choice to start the sixth inning, putting runners on the corners with one out for rookie Matt Duffy. It was the first real threat Brewers starter Wily Peralta faced. The right-hander was able to work out of it when Duffy grounded into a routine 4-6-3 double play (-.080 WPA) to end the inning, the threat, and the Giants best chance to climb back into the game.

KEY MOMENT

All of Milwaukee’s offensive trade chips showed out in the top of the first inning as the Brewers took a 2-0 lead (unless you somehow still subscribe to the idea that Jonathan Lucroy could be traded this summer, in which case I have a beautiful and well-priced bridge in Brooklyn to sell you). White-hot Gerardo Parra led off the game with a double to extend his hitting streak to 12 games. After a Lucroy line out to center, Carlos Gomez doubled to right field, scoring Parra. Gomez would subsequently score on Lind’s RBI single, as mentioned above.

With the Brewers out of contention for a playoff spot and the trade deadline just two days away, key moments for the team are best measured by plays that add to the trade value of players who might not be members of the local baseball squadron at the end of the week. Parra, who also showed off his Gold Glove defense with a diving catch on the right-field line in the seventh, raised his slash line to .324/.365/.517 with a brilliant 3-for-4 showing. Lind, who needed to make an appearance to re-establish his trade value after missing the previous two games with a back injury, not only came through with the biggest hit of the game, but also tallied the winning run with a sacrifice fly in the third. The first baseman finished 1-for-3, but most importantly, he made it through all nine innings without an injury issue. Closer Francisco Rodriguez also pitched a clean ninth inning and is a perfect 23-for-23 in save opportunities, which mystifyingly remains a stat that real professional baseball teams care about.

TREND TO WATCH

Wily Peralta, making his first start since May 22, threw six innings of two-run, five-hit ball to lead Milwaukee to their first win in five games. On a starting pitching staff full of might-bes and has-beens, Wily Peralta maybe represents Milwaukee’s best hope for a legitimate top-of-the-rotation starter. With the season already lost, the focus shifts from what players can do for you this year to what they can ultimately become. Peralta was coming off a breakout season in 2014 in which the 26-year-old led Milwaukee in wins, strikeouts, and innings pitched but has failed to build on last season’s successful campaign, recording career highs in hits (10.2) and home runs (1.2) per nine innings and a career low strikeout rate (5.7) in 2015. Encouragingly, Peralta did not appear to have any lingering effects from the rib-cage strain that forced him to miss over two months of action:

Wily Peralta touched 95 mph against his first hitter off the DL. Looks like he's glad to be back.

— Adam McCalvy (@AdamMcCalvy) July 29, 2015

COMING UP NEXT

The Brewers will look to take two of three from the defending world champions when they wrap up their West Coast road trip with an afternoon matchup between Mike Fiers and Jake Peavy. First pitch is at 1:45 pm central time. The Brewers will then return home for a four-game set against the Chicago Cubs to wrap up the month and take them through the trade deadline.

About a month ago, fellow BP Milwaukee writer Andrew Salzman took a rather in-depth look at the moves Doug Melvin has made in his tenure with the Brewers when they were sellers at the deadline. It’s quite informative and well-written, and you should read it if you haven’t.

I’m going to narrow my focus to not only more recent trades but also include ones from the winter. I also will look at trades that might not or cannot be defined as “seller” moves. This list will not be an exhaustive one, as trades for guys like Burke Badenhop won’t be useful to us in this discussion.

Dec 2010: Brewers acquire RHP Shaum Marcum for 3B Brett Lawrie
Dec 2010: Brewers acquire RHP Zack Greinke and SS Yuniesky Betancourt (shudder) for OF Lorenzo Cain, SS Alcides Escobar, RHP Jeremy Jeffress, and RHP Jake Odorizzi

Jul 2011: Brewers acquire RHP Francisco Rodriguez for LHP Danny Ray Herrera and RHP Adrian Rosario
Jul 2011: Brewers acquire OF Jerry Hairston Jr. for OF Erik Komatsu

Jul 2012: Brewers trade RHP Zack Greinke for SS Jean Segura, RHP Johnny Hellweg, and RHP Ariel Pena
Jul 2012: Brewers trade C George Kottaras for RHP Fautino De Los Santos

Jul 2013: Brewers trade RHP Francisco Rodriguez for 3B Nicky Delmonico
Aug 2013: Brewers trade RHP John Axford for RHP Michael Blazek

Dec 2013: Brewers trade OF Nori Aoki for LHP Will Smith
Jul 2014: Brewers acquire OF Gerardo Parra for LHP Anthony Banda and OF Mitch Haniger
Aug 2014: Brewers acquire RHP Jonathan Broxton for RHP Barrett Astin and RHP Kevin Schakelford

Nov 2014: Brewers acquire 1B Adam Lind for RHP Marco Estrada
Jan 2015: Brewers trade RHP Yovani Gallardo for SS Luis Sardinas, RHP Corey Knebel, and RHP Marcos Diplan
Jul 2015: Brewers trade 3B Aramis Ramirez for RHP Yhonathan Barrios

(NOTE: Just to make it a bit easier to view, the bolded transactions represent those that took place around the non-waiver trade deadline.)

Regardless of buying or selling, the Brewers haven’t done much at the deadline in recent years. As shown above, the only major trade that took place around the deadline was the Greinke trade to Los Angeles. While that trade was a significant trade for the organization, it’s important to note Greinke was poised to be a free agent at the end of the season.

The Brewers theoretically could have moved Corey Hart and perhaps Aramis Ramirez during the 2012 trade deadline, but chose to hold those assets. Part of the reasoning, at least publicly, was that each player had years of team control remaining. Hart was under contract through the next year and Ramirez through the 2015 season.

Another interesting thing to note is the other big moves were made mostly in December (or in the case of the Gallardo trade shortly thereafter). Here, we do see players with team control being moved. Nori Aoki and Yovani Gallardo both had one year left on their contracts when they were traded. Of course, it’s notable that the Brewers also had players ready to take over for them, with Khris Davis taking over for Aoki and Jimmy Nelson for Gallardo.

The Brewers recent history suggests they won’t make any big moves at the deadline. It also suggests the players moved will likely be in their final season of team control or, in the case of John Axford, performing poorly.

The Brewers moved Aramis Ramirez already. Gerardo Parra and Neal Cotts will almost surely go, since they are free agents to be. If they can move Kyle Lohse and Jonathan Broxton I’m sure they will, but neither has produced well enough or is cheap enough to make that a likely scenario. They’re a pair of veterans who could easily be moved in August after they pass through waivers.

Mike Fiers and Jean Segura have reportedly received a lot of interest from contending and non-contending teams. Both players are under team control for a long time. Fiers has four years remaining and Segura has three. Little in the Brewers’ historical trades suggest either will be on the move. Though, it should be noted that the two do have replacements in line. Taylor Jungmann and Tyler Cravy for Fiers, in the immediate future, with Jorge Lopez and Ty Wagner in a year. For Segura there is Luis Sardinas right now with top-prospect Orlando Arcia in the near future.

The real questions surround Adam Lind and Carlos Gomez. Each can be controlled through next season. The Brewers moved Gallardo and Aoki when they just had one year of control remaining. Those moves were made in the winter, but if the Brewers are going to be open to moving them in the offseason, one could argue that they should be open to moving them now.

Gallardo and Aoki had clear replacement options waiting in the minors. Adam Lind has some immediate replacements — Jason Rogers, Matt Clark, Shane Peterson — but they aren’t very promising. I think the Brewers brass could sell the casual audience on Rogers taking over, as he’s currently hitting .341/.454/.625 in Triple-A. Rogers now does remind me of Khris Davis when he was giving a full-time spot on the roster, but I’m higher on Rogers than most.

Carlos Gomez technically has replacements too: Logan Schafer now, Kyle Wren and Tyrone Taylor in the near future. However, it would be impossible to sell anyone on Schafer. He’s not a new name and hit .207/.282/.317 during his time in Milwaukee and his hitting .259/.292/.347 in Triple-A. Wren and especially Taylor are a ways off.

Based on their recent history, it’s hard to see the Brewers moving more than Gerardo Parra and Neal Cotts at the trade deadline. While I do believe there is some recent precedent for moving players with a year of control left, I’m not convinced the Brewers will give up on next season, which is essentially what they’d be doing if they traded Adam Lind and Carlos Gomez. Of the two, I think Lind has the better chance of being moved.

This all assumes the Brewers follow recent trends. Things can and do change, especially in relation to the team’s competitive window and their willingness to rebuild. With this trade market being light on bats, though, it’s possible the Brewers get some trade offers too good to turn down. Short of that, the hope for those players being moved probably lies in the offseason.

Beyond the Box Score || MLB trade deadline: Is Gerardo Parra still good at defense? (July 23, 2015)

Tom O’Donnell (@Od_tommy) takes a peek into why Gerardo Parra, a former Gold Glove winner, seems to have regressed and is ranked among the likes of Prince Fielder and Pedro Alvarez as one of the worse defenders in baseball in 2015. According to FanGraphs, Parra ranks 49th out of 55 left fielders with at least 150 innings played according to their Defense stat this year. Parra, who is almost certain to be traded before next Friday’s non-waiver deadline, has seen his defensive numbers decline precipitously even while enjoying his best offensive year. O’Donnell concludes that small sample bias and a slightly decreased ability to make difficult plays are to blame, though he fails to mention why this has dropped Parra to among the league’s worst and not simply dropped him to league-average levels.

Baseball Prospectus || The Trade Game: Carlos Gomez (July 22, 2015)

Note: You must be a Baseball Prospectus premium subscriber to access this article.

I’ll try to keep articles that are behind a paywall to a minimum here, but this one is too good to pass up. In this fun bit of role-playing, several of BP’s staff assume the role of General Manager for teams around the league that could be interested in Carlos Gomez. R.J. Anderson (playing the role of Doug Melvin) finds the price of prospects steep early, as Jonathan Judge (@bachlaw), acting as Minnesota Twins GM Terry Ryan, demands one fifth of the Brewers 25-man roster for Miguel Sano and Lewis Thorpe.  However, he is able to find three offers he can bring to a meeting with ownership, one of which he accepts. Spoiler alert: You will not like where Gomez ends up.

Knowledge @ Wharton || The Other “Moneyball”: Using Analytics to Sell Season Tickets (July 21, 2015)

Two days ago, 32,588 fans showed up to a Wednesday afternoon game to watch the 42-52 Brewers play an interleague game against an also-ran from the AL Central.  A big part of those solid attendance numbers for a bad team in the league’s smallest market is Milwaukee’s large season ticket holder base, which is bolstered by A) putting a dang roof on your house so that the games are never rained out and B) as the unnamed author points out in this interesting piece, analytics, which is no longer just for people who love Tim Raines.

FanGraphs || Evaluating the Prospects: Pittsburgh Pirates (May 16, 2014)

As you may have heard, the Brewers traded veteran third baseman Aramis Ramirez back to the Pirates yesterday, on the 12^th anniversary of the trade that sent him out of Pittsburgh to the Cubs. In return the Brewers received 23-year-old Yhonathan Barrios (pronounced like Ron Burgundy pronounces ‘jogging’), an infielder-turned-reliever whom the Brewers assigned to Double-A Biloxi. There’s not a ton to be excited about with this deal, though Barrios does sit mid-90s with his fastball, but Ramirez is 38 and the return was never going to be anything that would blow you away. This article from a year ago highlights Barrios as one of the hardest throwers in the minors. Our own Jack Moore also had the transaction analysis for this trade yesterday, in case you missed it. Thanks for the memories, Rami.

Brew Crew Ball || The Brewers would be better off by removing Kyle Lohse from the starting rotation (July 23, 2015)

A bit of a mouthful in the headline department, but Jason Paczkowski at Brew Crew Ball takes a look at the impending decision Doug Melvin will need to make regarding Kyle Lohse when Wily Peralta returns from the disabled list. There’s no reasonable case to be made for keeping Lohse—who was shelled again on Wednesday and is the worst qualifying starting pitcher in the bigs—as a starter, save a move to a 6-man rotation to save the Brewers young arms from overuse. Paczkowski notes that sending Taylor Jungmann back down to Triple-A Colorado Springs is a non-starter after the blistering start to his major-league career (5-1, 2.04 ERA, 1.019 WHIP, 0.7 PWARP in just 8 starts). In all, a fine read, though there’s a bit of a sentimental vibe to this piece for a player who spent way more time as a Brewer killer in St. Louis than he did as a useful pitcher in Milwaukee.

Brewers.com || prospect Harrison suffers broken ankle (July 22, 2015)

From the Absolute Bummer and In Case You Missed It departments, Monte Harrison suffered a gruesome season-ending ankle injury while running the bases on Tuesday night, reports Adam McCalvy (@AdamMcCalvy). The injury couldn’t have come at a worse time for Harrison, ranked by MLB.com as the #3 prospect in the Brewers’ system, who was starting to put things together at Helena after a tough start at Low-A Wisconsin this spring. There is not yet a timetable for Harrison’s recovery, who is heading to Milwaukee for surgery soon according the Director of Media Relations for the Helena Brewers:

Looks like Monte Harrison will head to Milwaukee for surgery in the coming days and then fly to Arizona to begin rehab.

— Dustin Daniel (@dustin__daniel) July 22, 2015

Grantland || Outer-Third Omnipotence: Why No One Can Score On Zack Grienke (July 22, 2015)

Jonah Keri (@jonahkeri) takes a look at how an expanded strike zone has aided former-Brewer Zack Grienke’s recent run of dominance. Grienke, who hasn’t been scored upon in over a month, will own the longest scoreless streak in the expansion era if he can get through the first 3.2 innings of his next start unscathed. Originally scheduled to pitch Friday, Grienke will miss that start to be with his wife as the couple are expecting their first child. Come for some nice analysis of how umpires help make top pitchers even more dominant, stay for the Grienke quotes. In his weekly power rankings posted Monday to Grantland, Keri predicted Ramirez being traded to the Pirates, because he is a wizard.

 ESPN Insider || Top 50 MLB Prospects (July 16, 2015)

Note: ESPN Insider subscription required to view this article.

Keith Law (@keithlaw) came out with a mid-season update of his top 50 MLB prospects list last Thursday, from which we learned two things: he really likes Orlando Arcia, whom he ranked 17th; and he really doesn’t like anyone else in the Brewers system, as he specifically notes that he believes only Arcia and 2015 1st round pick Trenton Clark have “grade-60 or better” potential. It is, of course, widely known that Law hates the Brewers and also hates everyone else’s favorite team. Also of note: there’s only one Cub higher on the list than Arcia, and he’d no longer qualify if it were redone today (recently recalled catcher Kyle Schwarber sits 10th). This would be wonderful news if the reason the Cubs had all cleared off the top of the list was anything other than, “They’re all playing in the major leagues now.” Oh well.

Lead photo courtesy of Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

In half a season, Parra has already cost Milwaukee 2.9 runs on the bases — more than he earned for his teams in the previous two years combined. Not only does that mark place him last among his teammates, it also ranks 16th-lowest in all of baseball. Parra has gone from a solidly above-average baserunner to a horrid one, and that drop may harm his trade value.

It’s probably useful to sort through the component of this statistic, in order to get a better idea of why Parra has struggled. Five different statistics make up BRR; Stolen Base Runs (SBR), perhaps the most common among them, measures the runs above or below average of a player’s base-stealing ability. As anyone who has seen Parra (particularly in his Arizona days) can testify, he’s rarely been anything but a liability when trying to swipe a bag:

The nadirs for Parra came in 2009, when he only succeeded in five of his 12 attempts, and in 2013, when catchers cut him down an even 10 times out of 20. (The latter season inspired this memorable Dave Cameron post.) Oddly enough, Parra’s gone in safely six times this year, and has only run into an out twice. In other words, a failure to steal hasn’t cost Parra on the bases in 2015.

However, there’s more to running the bases than advancing a base behind the pitcher’s back. The best baserunners will consistently advance at every opportunity, and the other four elements of BRR — Ground Advancement Runs (GAR), Air Advancement Runs (AAR), Hit Advancement Runs (HAR), and Other Advancement Runs (OAR) — gauge their capacity to do so. With the exception of the latter, Parra has come up short in all of those regards thus far.

We’ll begin with ground balls and fly balls, each of which could see Parra set a new career low:

The 2015 season has given Parra more shots at taking advantage of these types of plays. His current pace would put him at 50 Ground Advancement Opportunities and 40 Fly Advancement Opportunities, each level the second-highest of his career (after 2013 and 2014, respectively). In other words, come season’s end, he’ll theoretically have been on base 50 times with a base open in front of him and a grounder hit at the plate, and will have been on base 40 times with a base open in front of him and a fly ball hit at the plate.

Parra has responded to the increase in chances by moving ahead less than ever before. Entering 2015, he had never accumulated fewer than six Bases Taken in a season, and had posted at least 12 BTs in five of his six campaigns. Thus far, he’s moved ahead a base just twice. Even prorating that over a full season gives him a mere four, easily a career-low.

What about when the ball in play goes for a hit? For that, we have HAR, which also dislikes Parra’s 2015 output:

After a 2014 spike, Parra has come back to Earth with a vengeance. Of the three types of situations that HAR incorporates (moving from first to third on a double, scoring from first on a double, and scoring from second on a single), that drop has come from one in particular:

Parra hasn’t had too much difficulty with coming around after the batter knocks a two-bagger, nor has he stopped much at second following a single. He’s fallen short, though, when a single could score him from second base. In that facet of baserunning, the going has gotten tougher than ever.

The possible causes of this all-around decline certainly don’t stand out. Parra has not, to the best of my knowledge, played through any injuries this year, or anything else that may have hampered his performance. His rates of doubles and triples haven’t budged from his career marks, so he doesn’t appear to lack speed (and, as stated earlier, he’s kind of excelled with stealing bases). The Brewers did bring in a new hitting coach after last season, so perhaps Darnell Coles has affected Parra’s running for the worse, but even that is purely speculation. It’s also important to note that, with sample sizes as small as these, metrics such as this can fluctuate rather rapidly; for the rest of the year, Parra may very well return to his old self.

Whatever the cause for Parra’s depreciation, it’s happened, and in an era when major-league teams employ massive analytics departments, any team that hopes to deal for him will probably take note of it. Should he manage to turn his baserunning around in the next few weeks, he could regain the glimmer he had when Milwaukee brought him in last season. For now, though, he remains a terrible baserunner, and one that will soon run terribly elsewhere.

Beachy hadn’t pitched in the majors for roughly 23 months, so an ample amount of rust should have been expected. The right-hander only threw 59 percent of his pitches for strikes on Saturday evening. He fell behind Gomez with the bases loaded and tried to capitalize on Gomez’s aggressiveness by throwing an offspeed pitch, rather than the conventional fastball. Unfortunately, the rust showed for Beachy and he left the slider up in the zone. The change-of-speed still fooled Gomez enough to keep him from crushing it 450 feet; however, the terrible location allowed Gomez to still do damage with the pitch.

Lost in the shuffle, perhaps, was Adam Lind’s effort on the basepaths. The two-out scenario allowed Lind to take off at the crack of the bat and the sheer hangtime on the baseball gave Lind extra time to round the bases, but it remains impressive that Lind — who is slow and relatively unskilled on the base paths — managed to score from first base on a double to left-center field. Extra runs are vital, whether or not the final score suggests they were ultimately needed. Gomez deserves praise for muscling a hanging slider to the wall. But plays that fail to get caught on camera, such as Lind’s hustle for a team that began the night 14-games under .500, shouldn’t be forgotten or ignored.

BOTTOM PLAY (WPA):  Justin Turner grounded into a double play in the fourth inning, effectively ending a no-out rally and keeping the Brewers ahead by three runs (-.123 WPA)

In the minors, Jungmann routinely fell behind hitters and worked himself into three-ball counts. That hasn’t been an issue in the big leagues, but the right-hander doesn’t have premium stuff and can’t afford to get behind. Thus, when Jungmann walked Joc Pederson and surrendered a single to Howie Kendrick to lead off the fourth inning, things became rather uncomfortable with the Brewers. It got worse when Jungmann fell behind 1-0 on Justin Turner, who has been one of the hottest hitters in baseball over the last month. The Brewers’ right-hander battled back and spotted consecutive fastballs on the outside and inside corners, respectively, to take control of the at-bat. He spun a nice curveball on a 2-2 count and got Turner to pound it into the ground, starting the double play and undercutting the threat the Dodgers built earlier in the inning.

Jungmann had a quality curveball on Saturday evening against one of the best offenses in baseball. Out of the 21 deuces that he unleashed, the former first-round pick got six swing-and-misses and five called strikes. It was a very good pitch on Saturday and something that he’ll desperately need to continue in order to find consistent success against major-league hitters as he faces teams for the second and third times.

KEY MOMENT

In many ways, the purpose of this season is becoming more about development rather than about winning. It’s about young players battling through adversity and learning their craft. On Friday, many people criticized Craig Counsell for leaving Jimmy Nelson in the game against back-to-back lefties with the game on the line; however, Nelson needs to experience those moments. He needs to know his manager trusts him to wiggle out of tough jams. He needs to fail in those scenarios in order to find success in them later. As a fan, perhaps that’s frustrating to a certain extent. Personally, though, I find immense enjoyment in the developmental process of baseball — both of the team and individual players. I’m cataloging the seventh inning on Friday in my mind and try to look for improvement from Nelson the next time he finds himself in a similar scenario.

That’s why the key moment on Saturday, for me, came in the eighth inning — when the game had pretty much been decided. The Brewers led by seven runs. Taylor Jungmann, though, had one of those developmental moments when the game was seemingly out of reach. He dished up a lead-off double to Yasmani Grandal. Again, not a game-changing play, but it was important in two ways:

(1) When the pressure has been removed, young pitchers can lose their concentration and unwittingly allow the opposing team — who was presumed dead — to scratch their way back into the game. Brewers fans have watched numerous games where a blowout suddenly became a save situation, and K-Rod needlessly was forced to warm up and enter the game.

(2) Jungmann had the opportunity to go the distance and save the bullpen. As Julian Assouline showed last week, the Brewers’ bullpen has been overworked due to the inability of the starting rotation to work deep into games. Young pitchers must learn to bounce-back from late struggles and limit damage in an effort to save the bullpen.

Taylor Jungmann understood his role in the eighth inning. Instead of getting cute or overthinking the situation, the right-hander attacked the very next batter (Yasiel Puig) with six-straight fastballs and trusted his ability to get a ground ball. The worst scenario would have been issuing a walk or hanging a breaking ball. Instead, he pounded fastballs to Puig and got a ground ball. In fact, Jungmann only threw fastballs the rest of the eighth inning. He pounded the zone and forced the Dodgers to hit their way back into the game. They were unable to do so, and Jungmann ultimately tossed the complete game.

Say what you want about Gomez’s bases-clearing double or any of the run-scoring plays earlier in the game, the key moment of the contest was Taylor Jungmann’s ability to dig deep and close out the game. It illustrates his strong mental state and the quality game-calling ability of Jonathan Lucroy.

TREND TO WATCH

Gerardo Parra is now hitting .309/.344/.496 with nine homers and six stolen bases. His .345 BABIP is 20-points above his career average, but that’s largely due to his increased line-drive rate in 2015.

Particularly notice Parra’s increased line-drive rate against non-fastballs. Over his career, he has only hit .220 against breaking balls and .230 against offspeed pitches. This year, though, he’s hitting .262 and .255, respectively. That’s particularly due to his increased line-drive rate against those pitches, as it reflects his ability to drive those pitches with more power than he had in previous seasons.

Often, baseball fans glance at BABIP and decide it’s “lucky” or “unlucky” without considering the building blocks of BABIP. It’s dependent upon speed and batted ball profile, as much as it is random variance. If Parra is hitting line drives at an unprecedented rate, we should perhaps expect his BABIP to be near a career-high and perhaps it should be considered sustainable as long as his batted-ball profile remains the same. As such, Gerardo Parra is on pace for a career season, and I would argue that it’s a reflection of improved core abilities. Whether those improvements will continue or are sustainable is, of course, a different question.

COMING UP NEXT

The last game before the All-Star Break, Kyle Lohse gets another chance to right the ship. He will face lefty Brett Anderson and the Dodgers at 3:10pm CT.

It’s been a demoralizing season for the veteran right-hander. He hasn’t been able to hold opposing hitters under a .280 batting average in any of the four months this season. In other words, the long ball has gotten the vast majority of the attention, as Lohse has allowed 20 homers this year, but the issues extend beyond that point. Lohse has simply been hit hard all year. Opposing hitters are hitting for average and power. They’re hitting .297/.336/.501 on the year — which is like facing the equivalent to Yoenis Cespedes (.299/.325/.503) in every single at-bat. That’s not good.

The veteran right-hander will look to turn it around again on Sunday afternoon, as the Brewers seek to win their final series before the All-Star Break and get to only a dozen games under .500.

Aramis Ramirez scored Gerardo Parra to give the Brewers a run in the first inning, but it was their second run that proved to statistically be the most important. Jean Segura led off the inning with a single to left. Scooter Gennett then lined a double to deep right field. Segura read the ball correctly off the bat and took off running, which allowed him to score from first. It’s not something that happens often and much of the credit goes to Segura’s legs, perhaps just as much as Gennett’s bat.

BOTTOM PLAY (WPA): Tucker Barnhart grounded into a double play (-.120 WPA).

Taylor Jungmann stymied the Reds’ offense for the first four innings; however, they began to make some noise in the fifth. Jay Bruce and Marlon Bryd began the inning with back-to-back hits to put runners at the corners. A force out at second would fortunately keep the runners in their places, bringing up the Reds’ catcher Tucker Barnhart in a key spot. This ultimately was the Reds’ best chance to plate a run throughout the entire game. Barnhart wound up grounding into a double play to end the inning and the Reds’ threat.

KEY MOMENT

It’s probably no surprise that the key moment of the game for the Brewers was also the play that most negatively affected the Reds’ win probability. Taylor Jungmann was perfect through four innings. The Reds’ first hit (and base runner) came in the fifth inning when Jay Bruce led off with a double. Marlon Bryd followed up with a single. Bruce advanced to third base. Ivan De Jesus Jr. hit a sharp grounder to third, where Aramis Ramirez was able to look back the runner and go to second for the force out. Bruce was unable to score.

Still, with runners at the corners and now one out, Tucker Barnhart stepped into the box. He hit a grounder sharply up the middle. The ball deflected off Jungmann’s right hand which made for a bit of an awkward play for Jean Segura. The Brewers’ shortstop was luckily able to shovel it to Scooter Gennett, who was covering second and subsequently made a strong relay throw to first for an inning-ending double play.

TRENDS TO WATCH

Trade value rising?

Despite being above-average at the plate all year, Gerardo Parra has been on quite a tear recently. In today’s game, he collected two hits — including a home run, his seventh of the season. On the season, he has slashed .308/.345/.477 with seven home runs and a half-dozen steals. He may no longer be an elite defender, but he still adequately plays all three outfield positions and still possesses a strong throwing arm. With the way Parra is hitting, with Khris Davis returning from the disabled list, and with the trade deadline approaching, Parra’s time in Milwaukee appears to be nearing its end.

Adam Lind has also been good all season. Just like Parra, he had two hits including a home run (his 14th of the 2015 campaign). He has now hit .298/.373/.518 on the season. The first baseman has a modest salary this year, as well as a team option for $8 million in 2016. One would think that he’s going to be very attractive to a competitive team in need of a first baseman or designated hitter at the trade deadline.

Aramis Ramirez has not been good all year. In fact he was dreadful for the first two months. His season slash line is .244/.286/.438 — but things have been picking up for the notoriously late bloomer. In the last 30 days, he’s hit .280/.313/.505. He has even done better in the last 14 days, as he’s mashing to the tune of a .342/.409/.605 slash line. On Sunday, he added two more hits. It’s unclear if the Brewers will be able to move him by the trade deadline (July 31), but it will only help if he keeps hitting like this. And if not, it might still be possible to move him in August before the waiver deadline.

Neal Cotts has had something of an uneven season. He’s had five blow-up outings, but the rest have been excellent. He owns a 25.4 percent strikeout rate and has whittled down what was once an ERA over 5.00 to just 3.74. The Brewers won’t likely be able to trade him for much, but there should be a chance to trade him. That’s not something most people expected even a month ago.

This has nothing to do with trade value, but I’d be remiss if I didn’t acknowledge Taylor Jungmann’s start today. He went eight-complete innings, allowing just one run in the eighth. He allowed four hits and only surrendered a pair of walks to go with four strikeouts and several pop-ups. In his first four major-league starts, he has compiled a sparkling 2.43 ERA and a solid 3.76 DRA.

COMING UP NEXT

Monday July 6, 7:1o pm CST – Kyle Lohse vs Matt Wisler

The Brewers return home for a three-game series against the Atlanta Braves. The Brewers will send veteran righty Kyle Lohse to faceoff against rookie Matt Wisler. The Braves acquired Wisler earlier this season from the Padres in the Craig Kimbrel trade.

Wisler has spent most of the year in Triple-A, but will be making his fourth major-league start. He has thrown 17.1 innings in his first three starts with an 11.1 percent strikeout rate, 6.9 percent walk rate, 0.52 home-run rate, .242 BAA, 1.21 WHIP, 2.60 ERA, 3.69 DRA, and 117 cFIP. He features a fastball (92-93), slider, change-up, and curveball. Wisler has mid-rotation-or-better potential, but as with any rookie, it should take plenty of time to realize it.

Kyle Lohse allowed four runs in each of his last two starts. In his last start, he didn’t allow a home run, but in his prior start, he allowed two. On the season, he has a 1.79 HR/9, but he also has a .283 BAA. He’s getting hit often and he’s getting hit hard. He hasn’t shown any signs of improving, which obviously does not bode well for the Brewers’ chances of trading him for something productive.

Carlos Gomez missed Sunday’s game after being hit in the wrist by a pitch Saturday night. He could be ready to return by Monday. If not, then Tuesday seems probable. It’s not expected to be a long-term injury.

Khris Davis is nearing a return as well. He’s been on the disabled list since the end of May after tearing the meniscus in his knee. He had surgery to remove it and has been participating in a rehab stint with the Wisconsin Timber Rattlers. It’s possible he will be activated as soon as Monday, though sometime on the upcoming home stand seems certain.