Milwaukee would not be in the position that they are without Yelich, who was a stud for the Miami Marlins before fashioning himself into a bonafide superstar during the 2018 campaign. His .326 batting average /.402 on-base percentage /.598 slugging percentage slash line earned him the National League batting title (Milwaukee’s first ever) and he was this close to the first NL Triple Crown since 1937, tallying 36 home runs and 110 runs batted in (Yelich finished behind Nolan Arenado and Trevor Story in home runs, and Javier Baez for runs batted in). His superlative performance yielded a .356 True Average (TAv) and 7.7 Wins Above Replacement Player (WARP) in his age-26 season, and he’s become the odds-on favorite to capture the league’s Most Valuable Player award.

Thinking back to January 25th, 2018, not everyone was thrilled when Slingin’ David Stearns signed off on the trade that sent four prospects to the Little Havana neighborhood in Miami. At the time, he gave up Milwaukee’s number one, three, and six prospects (according to Baseball Prospectus) along with a pitcher who Stearns himself had called one of his favorite arms in the organization. So as we bask in the glow of the first playoff victory our local club has produced in seven long years, let’s take a moment to check in on the guys that Stearns have up to help get us here:

OF Lewis Brinson
For most fans, Brinson was the player that stung most to lose. He was considered top-25 talent league wide, a potential five-tool center fielder who offered a few glimpses of his potential during a brief MLB trial in 2017. Miami handed Brinson a regular role at the big league level to begin the year, and he responded by putting together one of the least productive campaigns of any player in 2018. Brinson hit only .199/.240/.338 in 109 games and 406 plate appearances, good for an anemic TAv of .220. He did pop 11 long balls (including a mult-homer game against Milwaukee) and tallied 3.0 FRAA, but on the whole he was valued as a sub-replacement level player, tallying -0.3 WARP.

OF Monte Harrison
After a breakout season in 2017 between Appleton and Carolina, Miami tasked Harrison with one of the toughest challenges a minor leaguer will face: the jump from Class-A Advanced to Double-A. His slash line for Jacksonville of the Southern League wasn’t too bad at .240/.316/.399, which translated to a better-than-average .272 TAv on the pitcher-friendly circuit. Harrison again showed off his tantalizing power/speed combination, swiping 28 bases to go along with 19 dingers in 583 plate appearances. But the outfielder was also by far the league leader in strikeouts, whiffing an astonishing 215 times, or 37 percent of his trips to bat.

2B Isan Diaz
Like Harrison, Isan Diaz was assigned to Double-A Jacksonville to begin his time in the Marlins organization after finishing 2017 in Class-A Advanced. Diaz had a fair amount more success in the Southern League, however, producing a nifty .245/.365/.418 slash with 10 homers and 10 steals for a .294 TAv. After 83 games he earned a promotion to Triple-A New Orleans, and his numbers cratered at the highest level of the minors. In 36 games and 155 plate appearances, Diaz could manage only a .204/.281/.358 slash (.217 TAv). Strikeouts remain a concern for the infielder as well, as he whiffed a total of 140 times in 119 games between the two affiliates.

RHP Jordan Yamamoto
Yamamoto was stung by the injury bug this season, not taking the mound until late May and then missing another month of action between July and August. As a result, the righty made only 13 appearances and tossed 68 and 2/3 innings on the year, split between rookie ball, Class-A Advanced, and Double-A. In those innings, however, he put together a sparkling 1.68 ERA. Batters hit only .176 against the Hawaiian right-hander, and he struck out 84 (11.14 K/9) versus just 14 walks (1.83 BB/9). The profile is still more smarts and guile than it is pure stuff, leading to questions about how his game will play at the highest levels. Of the four prospects in the deal, though, Yamamoto is the only one who surely improved his stock heading into 2019, and the Baseball Prospectus team cited his ability to change speeds as one reason for rising prospect stock.

So, given these reports, have you been talked into a do-over on the trade? 

When I profiled free agents to begin the season, Lorenzo Cain graded as the best available position player free agent with a $71.5M three-year depreciated surplus. Given that the Brewers landed Cain for $80 million over five years, the Cain deal grades as close to an absolute steal. Cain’s surplus grades out to approximately $120.0M over five years, which means that at a $16.0M/year rate the Brewers basically received two free years on Cain’s deal. Basically, Cain should be able to deliver value on this contract in nearly every scenario short of catastrophic injury.

Contrary to the common line that the Brewers basically acquired Cain for market value, it is arguable that the club attained the center fielder’s services for quite a valuable deal.

What is thrilling about the Yelich deal is that it is not a steal. It is not a value move. The Brewers exhausted the full value of Yelich by trading three of their top six prospects. However, this is not problematic because Yelich’s surplus value is almost comical; he’s a young, budding superstar who has already proven a floor somewhere between 2.5 WARP and 5.0 WARP as he enters his prime age seasons. Tracking surplus value is important here because one can use the idea of organizational surplus value to assess when and how a team is extracting wins from their players.

Surplus Value Pricing
Refining WARP & OFP Pricing
Translating OFP
OFP and Minor League Pay
Revisiting the CC Sabathia Trade
Cashing Out OFP 2
Organizational Logic and Playoff Trades
Historical WARP and OFP

Had the Brewers kept Brinson, Monte Harrison, Isan Diaz, and Jordan Yamamoto, they would have indeed retained those prospects’ surplus value (defined here by their potential MLB ceilings, or Overall Future Potential (OFP), and their risk floor) while also carrying all of the risk of developing them year-to-year. This development risk was especially present with Harrison, Diaz, and Yamamoto, who are a couple of professional levels away from the MLB, but it was also somewhat present in Brinson’s profile should the center fielder never adjust his hit tool to MLB pitching. An elite fielding, speedy center fielder with some power but contact issues at the plate is not a bad MLB profile, but it’s not a superstar profile.

I began tracking Brewers surplus value during the club’s rebuild as a way to understand the success of a rebuild. What I found problematic about analyzing a rebuilding club was determining when and how a rebuilding team would achieve success. Since a rebuilding team is by definition “cashing out” its potential to win ballgames far down the road, there must be interim metrics used to judge a front office’s success. I use surplus value to assess MLB players by judging “production” (how well a player plays) and “scarcity” (how the player’s contract is structured) to express Wins Above Replacement Player (WARP) in monetary terms. Since risk can be priced, prospect OFP can be assessed in monetary terms as well, either by assessing the scarcity of certain grades and profiles or by historically analyzing production by prospect classes. By using these methods, MLB players and prospects can be evaluated on the same terms, which is a necessary task since MLB players are often traded for prospects; this method can also help one assess the success of a rebuild.

While there will be issues with designing any surplus value system for assessing MLB players and prospects, I maintain that working toward such a pricing system is necessary because MLB teams trade prospects for MLB players all the time.

The trouble with a player like Christian Yelich is that because he is cost-controlled by a $50 million contract (plus an option), his top surplus grade is extremely high. Over the course of the remaining five-years, extrapolating Yelich’s best WARP (5.3) yields potential production value worth $185.5M; even harshly depreciating Yelich’s 2015-2017 production yields potential value worth $93.1M. The reason Yelich’s surplus value runs so high, however, is that Yelich can also be graded by the cost of his contract against his production value; with $58.3M remaining over five years (if the Brewers exercise Yelich’s option), Yelich’s contractual surplus is at least $34.8M, and could be as high as $127.2M should his superstar potential continue to materialize.

Simply stated, Yelich is an absurdly valuable MLB player; he’s about as valuable as it gets. What is fascinating about Yelich’s value is that one would expect that he is nearly untradeable because of his value. Basically, there is no single prospect who will ever be worth Yelich, and this is why the Marlins’ reported demand of Braves prospect Ronald Acuna (arguably the very top prospect in the game) was not ridiculous or even audacious. Thus, it should make sense that the Brewers traded three high-ceiling prospects and one intriguing pitching flyer for Yelich: where one prospect cannot exhaust the value of an MLB player, many prospects must be used to form a transaction worth completing.

Using historical OFP pricing, one can see that a prospect package of Brinson, Harrison, Diaz, and Yamamoto very nearly exhausts Yelich’s highest surplus pricing. This is not necessarily a problem, given that Yelich is such a valuable player one should not have (reasonably) expected anything lower. For example, once the Miami Marlins reached their threshold to fund their 2018 payroll, they could demand pure talent in return for Yelich, rather than talent and payroll relief. The “lowest” possible deal for Yelich, which would have priced the left fielder at his depreciated value over four years, would have roughly required Brinson and Diaz in return; but once the Marlins were able to demand talent alone, that type of price would not have been attainable by Milwaukee. Given that the Brewers had a deep farm system, especially at center field, the Brewers front office correctly ascertained that the Marlins would be pricing out Yelich at his highest possible value. With both Yelich and Lorenzo Cain sliding into outfield slots for five years, many have noted that the actual prospect hit is lessened for Milwaukee.

Of course, it must be stated that a player’s MLB potential ceiling is a dynamic phenomenon, and OFP only measures a player at one static point in time. Take Isan Diaz, for example; the second base prospect attained a higher OFP ranking entering the 2017 season, and a rough injury-riddled year dented that a bit. Jordan Yamamoto is almost impossible to price, as scouts that like the righty have recognized potential areas for the youngster to succeed as a rotation arm, but his development profile still carries a high amount of risk to reach that level. It is plausible that the Marlins priced out Diaz at a range potentially higher than the OFP published above, simply because his full prospect profile suggests that Diaz can once again reach that higher ceiling should he mend a few weaknesses as he reaches the advanced minors.

From the Brewers’ perspective, the front office surrendered much potential starpower, but they transferred all of the development risk to the Marlins. It should not be assumed that any of these prospects will be the same player in both locations: perhaps Lewis Brinson receives advice on a mechanical adjustment in Miami that the Brewers Player Development would have overlooked; perhaps each of these prospects receives enough time to adjust at the MLB level in the pressure-free environment of Miami, whereas a contending Milwaukee club may have had less patience for shortcomings at the MLB level.

Additionally, trading Brinson and Diaz essentially “completes” the Jean Segura deal, and realigns the Jonathan Lucroy deal. When I last checked in, the Segura trade remained Stearns’s worst deal (in terms of assessing day-of and post hoc surplus value), while the Lucroy deal remained his best.

Now these deals look like this:

It is nearly impossible to effectively apportion surplus from a four-player trade package across two previous trades, but the basic story is that Stearns has improved his trading record. By extending Chase Anderson and trading away Isan Diaz and Aaron Hill, Stearns has basically completed the Segura deal. In terms of the original Lucroy deal, the remaining player development task is Luis Ortiz, although the young righty is also prime trade potential due to his current innings pitched ceiling and flyball profile (36 percent groundball rate in 2017).

Photo Credit: Jeff Curry, USAToday Sports Images

The 26 year old former 1st-round pick has established himself as one of the bright young stars in the game since debuting with Miami back in 2013. Over the last four-and-a-half seasons, Yelich has produced a .290/.369/.432 slash line from the left side of the plate, which translates to a sterling .296 TAv when taking his former home of Marlins’ Park into consideration. He’s stolen double-digit bases in four of the five years he’s been in the MLB, and his power has taken a step forward with 39 dingers combined over the last two seasons. His defense has graded out much better in left field than it does in center, though with Cain’s presence in Milwaukee Yelich will surely slide over to a corner slot. In WARP’s eyes, Yelich has already generated 15.8 wins above replacement during his relatively short time in The Show. It’s been suggested that a move to a more hitter-friendly park could help Yelich tap into further offensive upside, and the Brewers will have up to five years to find out if that’s true: Yelich has four more guaranteed seasons on his early career extension as well as a team option for 2022.

To acquire a young, cost-controlled star like Yelich, though, David Stearns was forced to part with some of the highest rated talent from his formerly well-regarded farm system. So let’s take a look at the players that will be taking their talents to South Beach using the Baseball Prospectus top prospects list published earlier this winter:

1. OF Lewis Brinson (age-24)

Brinson was Milwaukee’s top prospect from the moment he was acquired in the summer 2016 deal that sent Jonathan Lucroy to Texas. He had an underwhelming MLB debut last season (.106/.236/.277, 2 HR in 55 PA) but tore the cover off the ball in Colorado Springs. He mashed in Triple-A to the tune of a .331/.400/.562 slash line with 13 homers and 11 steals en route to winning Milwaukee’s Minor League Player of the Year award.

Brinson could be a legitimate five-tool center fielder when all is said and done and has drawn comparisons to Mike Cameron. The power is real and he’s regarded as a terrific defender, but questions remain about the utility of his hit tool. His minor league strikeout rate has improved over the last several seasons, but the prospect team noted that Brinson still has a long swing, is willing to expand his strike zone, and has plenty of swing-and-miss in his game. There could be a lengthy learning curve for Brinson at the MLB level and he may struggle for awhile before coming into his own. A 70 Overall Future Potential (OFP)  – All-Star center fielder –  role is possible, but Baseball Prospectus noted the risk for Brinson is that “He may not hit major-league pitching. Wheeee!”

3. OF Monte Harrison (age-22)

The Brewers convinced Harrison to spurn an offer to play college football at Nebraska with an overslot bonus after selecting him in the 2nd round of the 2014 draft. He battled injury issues during his first few seasons but finally showed what he could do during a fully healthy season in 2017. Harrison split the year between Class A Wisconsin and Class A-Advanced Carolina, slugging 21 dingers and nabbing 27 bases with a .306 TAv between the two stops.

His success in 2017 helped Harrison fly up the prospect ranks and he’ll surely find himself somewhere in BP’s top 101 prospects when the list is revealed. He’s still considered a raw baseball talent, but he’s another potential five-tool, 70 OFP player and and his skillset has been compared favorably to Brinson’s. He should be able to stick in center field, though he’s working to refine his reads out there. Harrison has brandished plus power at the plate and elite speed and instincts on the bases. But like Brinson, his hit tool remains as the biggest developmental question. Harrison whiffed in 27 percent of his plate appearances last season in the lower minors and still has yet to show he can handle the jump to AA, where he’ll face more difficult opposing pitchers. I wrote earlier this winter that now may be an ideal time to sell high on Harrison as a prospect.

6. 2B/SS Isan Diaz (age-22)

Diaz came to Milwaukee as a major piece of the deal that sent Jean Segura to Arizona during the 2015-16 offseason, David Stearns’ first at the helm. After an outstanding season in Class A Wisconsin in 2016, Diaz struggled somewhat in Class A-Advanced this past season. Carolina is a notoriously tough park for hitters, but Diaz could manage only a .222/.334/.376 slash with 13 home runs in 455 plate appearances for a middling .262 TAv.

Diaz boasts plus bat speed and though he struck out 121 times in 110 games last year, scouts believe that he could ultimately develop into an above-average contact hitter. He has 20+ home run potential if everything comes together, too. Diaz has spent plenty of time at shortstop but the prevailing thought is that he’ll eventually settle in permanently at second base due to a lack of arm strength, and he spent plenty of time at the keystone in 2017. If he continues to climb the ladder as hoped, though, he could wind up as an above-average, bat-first starter at second base. The BP scouts questioned his maturity and composure, however, and given his struggles this past season it’s evident that Diaz is still working to turn his raw talent into real production on the diamond. Diaz’s strikeouts are considered a problem and he needs to refine his approach and avoid expanding the strike zone so frequently, or his hit tool may not develop to the point where it allows him to utilize his power consistently. There are worries that the broken hamate bone that ended his season prematurely may his hamper development, too.

Unranked RHP Jordan Yamamoto (age-22)

Yamamoto was the second Hawaiian hurler that Milwaukee chose in the 2014 draft, and they gave him an overslot bonus to sign as a prep 12th-rounder. He won the ERA title last season while pitching for the Class A-Advanced Mudcats, producing a 2.51 mark in 111.0 innings to go along with a 113:30 K/BB ratio and a DRA- of 63.

Yamamoto didn’t rank in BP’s top 10 for the Brewers and wasn’t mentioned as one of the “next ten,” but I did recently cover him as a potential 2018 breakout candidate. He lives mostly in the low-90s with his fastball but has dialed it up as high as 94 MPH. He also boasts a plus curveball that he spins at some 2000 RPM. His changeup is considered below-average, however, and so is his command even though he’s never walked a ton of hitters. He’s also a tad undersized at 6’0″ and 185 lbs. Yamamoto’s most likely MLB role is as a reliever, but given his success as a starter to this point through the lower minors there doesn’t figure to be any rush to transition him away from the rotation. The possibility remains that he’ll become a useful #4 or #5 starter on a big league pitching staff.

So to bring in Yelich, David Stearns was willing to part with three of his top six prospects as well as a young arm who he himself has mentioned previously as one of his favorite under-the-radar prospects within his own system. But besides Brinson, each of the other three prospects probably has at least two years of development remaining before they are ready for a trial in the big leagues. All three of the positional prospects have significant questions about their hit tools as well. The Brewers are ready to compete right now and for the next several seasons, while Miami is only in the beginning phase of what looks like a lengthy rebuild. Ultimately this deal for a proven star on a cheap, long-term contract for four risky prospects with high ceilings looks like it will help both teams move closer to their goals for 2018 and beyond.

The Graduate

2. LHP Josh Hader

Hader was ranked as the Brewers’ #2 prospect entering the 2017 season, and he did not disappoint during his first taste of big league action. The lefty spent the first few months of the season struggling in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League, but once the projected Super Two cutoff had comfortably passed the Brewers brought Hader up to join a struggling bullpen. He was a revelation in a true fireman role, tossing 47.7 innings of 2.08 ERA baseball covering 35 appearances. He struck out batters in bunches, registering 12.8 K/9, while holding opponents to a .204 TAv. If ERA isn’t enough to illustrate his dominance, he also recorded an 86 cFIP and 80 DRA-. Inconsistent command and secondaries call into question whether or not Hader can eventually become a starter, but he looks to at least have fulfilled his floor of impact reliever.

Bull Market

1. OF Lewis Brinson

The 23 year old outfielder was Milwaukee’s #1 prospect last year, and there’s little doubt that the title will be bestowed upon him once again heading into 2018. In his first extended run at the minors highest level, Brinson pounded opposing pitchers to the tune of a .331/.400/.562 slash with 13 home runs and 11 steals in 76 games. He struggled in his brief MLB debut and suffered (yet another) injury in August that ended his season early, but those issues should do little to dim his long-term outlook.

6. OF Brett Phillips

Like Brinson, Maverick Phillips got his first extended taste of the AAA level in 2017 and thrived. A year after grappling with Southern League pitching, Phillips torched the PCL for a .305/.377/.567 batting line with 19 long balls and 10 steals. Unlike Brinson, Phillips opened up some eyes within the organization during an outstanding September in the big leagues, and ended 2017 with an MLB slash of four big league dingers, five steals, a .293 TAv, and some stellar defensive play in center field (+4.4 FRAA). He’s still got a lot of swing-and-miss in his game, but that’s becoming more and more prevalent throughout the league. Phillips appears to be on the inside track for the center field job in Milwaukee next spring.

Holding Steady

8. 3B Lucas Erceg

Erceg got off to a slow start in a tough league for hitters down in Carolina, but came on strong once summer officially hit. His .256/.307/.417 slash doesn’t jump off the page, but he did post an .807 OPS after June 1st and only four batters in the Carolina League slugged more than his 15 home runs. Erceg doesn’t look like he’ll be more than an average hitter who doesn’t walk much, but the power could be above-average to plus and Baseball America ranked his as both the top defensive third baseman and the top infield arm in the Carolina League this season.

9. SS/2B Mauricio Dubon

Dubon split the year between AA and AAA and displayed quality bat-to-ball skills and nifty defensive ability at both second base and shortstop. He didn’t brandish the power that he showed during his AA stint in Boston’s organization in 2016, though, but not many people really expected him to. Dubon’s game is built around high contact and speed, and he could contribute at the big league level as soon as this coming season.

10. RHP Cody Ponce

Ponce stayed healthy in 2017, which was one of the more worrisome issues regarding his development previously. He fills the zone and doesn’t walk many hitters, but his velocity hasn’t been quite what it was during his college days. His stuff is inconsistent at times and he didn’t miss a ton of bats this year, registering only 6.7 K/9. But he did throw nearly 140 innings in 2017 between high-A and AA while logging a 3.14 ERA, helping make his projection as a inning-eating back end starter that much more realistic.

Bear Market

3. OF Corey Ray

Ray’s been a pretty big disappointment in the early stages of his career since Milwaukee popped him fifth overall in 2016. He’s struggled adjusting to even average fastball velocity, and was overmatched to the tune of a league-leading 156 strikeouts in 112 games (31 percent K-rate) with Carolina this past season. He’s become a well-regarded defender in center field and has speed to burn, but after batting .238/.311/.367 with 7 homers this season, he’s started getting some grades as a future fourth outfielder.

4. 2B/SS Isan Diaz

Diaz has been lauded as one of the top-hitting middle infield prospects in the game, but that didn’t really come to fruition in 2017. His power was way down as he clubbed 13 home runs in Carolina (from 20 the year before in low-A) and saw a 50+ point drop in his ISO. He also had issues with expanding his strike zone and whiffed in nearly 27 percent of his plate appearances. Given that he’s unlikely to stick at shortstop with his limited range, there’s a lot of pressure on his bat to develop. A .222/.334/.376 slash in A-ball isn’t going to cut it.

5. RHP Luis Ortiz

Ortiz spent the entire year in AA at the age of 21 in 2017 and finished with a respectable 4.01 ERA in 94.3 innings, which was a career-high. But he missed time once again with injury, which is concerning given his reputation for poor conditioning and a “bad body.” For as much talk as there’s been about his advanced stuff, he didn’t get a lot of whiffs against his Southern League competition, registering 7.5 K/9, while also issuing a career-worst 3.5 BB/9. While there’s still hope for an above-average starter, he’s behind the eight-ball when it comes to building an innings base and needs to show that he’s capable of handling a full-season’s workload.

7. OF Trent Clark

Another Ray Montgomery 1st-rounder that has so far failed to live up to expectations. Clark was considered the most advanced high school bat in the 2015 class, but so far in the professional ranks he’s been dinged for being far too passive in the strike zone. His reserved approach helps him get on base at a high clip and draw plenty of walks against low-level pitching, but that won’t be sustainable as he climbs the minor league ladder. He has yet to find any semblance of consistent power, either, as his OBP (.360) was higher than his SLG (.348) in 2017. This purportedly “advanced hitter” could manage only a .223 average in 2017 while striking out at a 24 percent clip. His limited arm strength means that left field is probably the best fit long-term, putting even ore pressure on the bat to start developing.

There are methodological shortcomings to both scouting and statistical reports. Scouting reports have shortcomings in terms of potential observer biases or preferences, limited looks (even some organizations draft a player after only one look), and privileged information (or, at times, even intentional asymmetrical information from clandestine “sources”); statistics are impacted by all the contextual factors present at the MLB level, but perhaps even moreso age, quality of competition, developmental cycle (i.e., first trip to a level), and proprietary development assignments that will typically be unknown to external observers. These factors diminish the meaning of minor league statistis.

BPMilwaukee benefits from work with the Baseball Prospectus scouting team, which consistently uses a radical “eyes in the field” approach to drive scouting reports that are therefore often divergent from, and perhaps less hype-worthy (a good thing), than many industry competitors. (One example here would be the 2016 approach to RHPs Brandon Woodruff and Phil Bickford, compared to sources like FanGraphs and BaseballAmerica). To supplement reports, which can be gathered from BP player pages and daily prospect summaries published on the website, statistical analysis can be applied to index contextual factors that could impact the perception of a player’s performance. To this end, I will publish a two part series detailing the contextual factors impacting Brewers regular (or semiregular) batting and pitching minor leaguers, which should hopefully add information to the use of scouting lines throughout the offseason.

I choose the method of indexing statistics because it is relatively straightforward in terms of user interface: every metric can be measured against a “constant” or comparison variable, such as “Player Total Average (TAv)” versus “League TAv.” In an index, 1.00 can basically be read as “average,” for it means that a player’s metric perfectly matches the comparison metric. For example, Outfield Michael Reed played during his age-24 season at Class-AA Biloxi, and the Southern League had a median age of 24; therefore, Reed’s age index is 1.00 (after all these years, Reed is still not “old” for advanced minor league ball).

For system wide reference, here is a key:

For this exercise, I indexed Age, TAv, Opposing OPS (oppOPS), and Park Factor statistics drawn from Baseball Prospectus CSV (retrieved September 13, 2017). These categories do not exhaust the information available, but they are arguably foundations for measuring the typical quality of the regular players in the league, the quality of opposing pitchers, and any extreme (or not) park environments. Note that I did not focus on Rookie classes (Pioneer League, Arizona League, or Dominican Summer League), as those leagues are not only (arguably) more instructional in nature but also representative of professionals at their earliest stages of development (therefore, I am not quite certain what Rookie class stats “say”).

I used two methods:

• Once I created an Index for each of these statistics, I weighted each player’s OPS by assessing it against the Opposing OPS quality and contextual factors. Again, 1.00 can be read as average; below 1.00 can be read as below average, while above 1.00 can be read as better than average.
• To provide a quality control for this rudimentary method, I used a basic TAv Index. Since Total Average is already scaled to many contextual factors, it more accurately reflects a player’s performance within a specific run, park, and league environment (certainly moreso than OPS).
• By using a 50 Plate Appearance cut off, I captured 72 batting seasons performed by 63 Brewers minor leaguers.

A few observations:

• The very best statistical performances within the minor league system have varying degrees of scouting support. Keston Hiura, for example, was advertised as one of the best bats in the 2017 Draft (perhaps the most advanced college bat, even), and Hiura indeed scorched the Midwest League to the tune of a .326 TAv; he did so while being young for his league (during his first pro go-around), facing solid to slightly-tough opponents, and a moderate park environment. Jake Gatewood may have been the surprise breakout of the season, combining new contact lenses and mechanical advancements to pummel both Class-Advanced A and Class-AA leagues. Monte Harrison was another strong tools prospect – really, a fantastic athlete – that finally played a healthy season. Harrison and Gatewood diverge in terms of the type of Overall Future Potential roles they have, but here they converge in making great strides in showcasing their tools in 2017. On the other hand, Troy Stokes does not necessarily have the full scouting pedigree behind his statistical performance, which makes his 2017 season eye opening in terms of assessing an organizational depth role. Garrett Cooper was advanced minor league depth who went on to post a .275 TAv in 45 injury-shortened PA with the Yankees.

• Much has been made of the disappointing season by the much-hyped gang of Carolina bats (Corey Ray, Lucas Erceg, Isan Diaz, and Trent Clark). However, it should be underscored that they did not actually have bad seasons. At worst, they had arguably average seasons when considering their age and developmental status (each facing a new league the first time through). However, what is interesting is that each player has new scouting reports on potential flaws that could indeed impact Overall Future Potential; for example, a midseason 2017 eyewitness report downgraded Ray’s role, and several other members of the prospect team confirmed hit tool concerns throughout the season. This type of scouting concern cycle was repeated for several of these prospects, but it is worth nothing this was also scouts’ first full look at Corey Ray and Lucas Erceg. In this case, one ought to hold the conclusions on statistical and scouting assessments for another season, as more information will be necessary to understand these potential shortcomings. Anyway, hold the hype (and really, be healthy about hype in the first place!).

• There are a ton of interesting sleepers around here. Some interesting reports are floating around regarding infielder Wendell Rijo, for example, but the second baseman has never really flashed the stats. This year, Rijo graded solidly both in terms of contextual OPS and TAv. Clint Coulter remained young for his level (Class-AA Biloxi in 2017), and posted some intriguing peripheral statistics to go along with his overall solid line. Granted, there are few emerging reports on either of these players yet, which leaves room for a healthy dose of skepticism about future role. But, it’s worth remembering that many of these guys are so young when drafted that they remain young even through several repeated stages of Advanced ball development; hanging around at that upper level, one wonders what might come of a guy like Coulter after Garrett Cooper received trade interest.

• In terms of melding scouting pedigree and performance, Brett Phillips might have the best season of any Brewers prospect. While many viewed his 2016 campaign as a disappointment, there were several aspects of Phillips’s game that exhibited strengths even through the perceived weaknesses of his stat line. Of course, Phillips was also quite young for his level. The intriguing “elite”-4th Outfielder-to-potential CF or RF starter put it all together in 2017, including a couple of stunning cups of coffee in the MLB (including a 2-for-4, three RBI night with an Outfield Assist against the Pirates on Wednesday). Hiura has the flashiest immediate hype and performance, but Phillips’s full season production and realization of one aspect of his MLB future could arguably win him “Best Bat” of the system for 2017. I gather that someone like Monte Harrison most deserves a “Player of the Year” Award, but Phillips should not be discounted when considering the Brewers system’s best players.

That narrative started to change on March 28, when the Cincinnati Reds claimed Gennett off waivers. The loss barely registered on most fans’ radars. A blip of nostalgia, perhaps, but these were the rebuilding Milwaukee Brewers. We’re used to players coming and going. In actuality, Gennett’s sudden departure was the first in a series of unexpected events that engulfed second basemen throughout the Brewers’ system. (Perhaps the most unexpected? Scooter’s .308 Total Average (TAv) and 24 dingers in 435 plate appearances for the division-rival Reds.)

As 2017 winds down, it’s safe to say that the second base picture has grown considerably more murky. Here’s a brief overview of the state of the position up and down the organization.

Major Leagues
Jonathan Villar got off to a miserable start this season, hitting only .221 before the All-Star break and battling a lower back injury in June. Even before the injury, ineffectiveness cost Villar significant playing time. The Brewers summoned utility infielder Eric Sogard from Class-AAA in mid-May, and the diminutive veteran’s hot start in Milwaukee left Villar the odd man out. It was scarcely the follow-up the club had hoped for from Villar, who led the majors with 62 stolen bases and recorded a .826 OPS last year. Villar earned his long leash, but he deserved his reduced role this summer. He’s provided fans a glimmer of hope since the break, batting .288/.306/.415 while working at second and dabbling in center field.

Sogard, meanwhile, won hearts across Brewers nation with a monstrous first half, in which he batted .331/.438/.485. He, too, was bit by the injury bug this season, landing on the 10-day disabled list with a left ankle strain in early July. He hasn’t been the same player since making his way back to the active roster, as evidenced by a paltry .171/.276/.224 triple-slash in the second half. The 31-year-old is a free agent at the end of the season, meaning his days in Milwaukee blue may be numbered.

The versatile Hernan Perez has occasionally spelled Sogard and Villar this year, and he’s done so with aplomb. Brewers brass prefers Perez in a super-utility role, though, so he shouldn’t be considered a long-term solution at the keystone. The same goes for Yadiel Rivera, who made only one brief trip to the majors in his final option year, going hitless in a pair of plate appearances.

Dissatisfied with a slumping Sogard and inconsistent Villar, the Brewers acquired Neil Walker from the New York Mets on August 12 for a player to be named. Walker has been a steady contributor this year, amassing 1.3 WARP in just 380 plate appearances. He’s turned it up a notch since coming to Milwaukee, batting .279/.395/.485 in 22 games. But the 31-year-old is likely to command more in free agency this offseason than the Brewers will want to pay. With younger options already on the big league roster, Walker is likely a pure rental, to be enjoyed while he lasts.

Minor Leagues
Eric Sogard’s May promotion to the major leagues allowed Nate Orf to lock down the second base job in Class-AAA Colorado Springs. He hasn’t disappointed. Orf hit .320/.397/.507 in the thin air of the Pacific Coast League, flashing hitherto unseen power (his 9 home runs this year surpassed his previous career total). At 27 years old, Orf is an unconventional prospect. But he’s also an intriguing one. Orf draws plenty of walks (10.7 percent), and his solid hit tool allows him to avoid strikeouts (14.8 percent). He’s managed to keep the ball off the ground this year, too, and could be a sneaky-good major leaguer if ever given the chance. His .288 TAv in Colorado Springs indicates that he’s ready for that opportunity. Orf could crack the Opening Day roster as a utility man next year if he’s protected from the Rule 5 Draft this offseason.

Mauricio Dubon split time between second base and shortstop this year, reaching Colorado Springs for the first time on June 26. Dubon possesses a solid hit tool, but he failed to replicate the power he flashed last season with the Portland Sea Dogs. If he grows into some pop, he could be a nifty starter. Otherwise, he’s destined for a role as a utility player.

Isan Diaz came to Milwaukee in the Jean Segura trade, and won the organizational Minor League Player of the Year award in 2016 by way of a first impression. He socked 20 home runs and 34 doubles in the Midwest League last season, but took a step back in Class-Advanced A Carolina this year. Diaz struck out in 26.6 percent of his plate appearances en route to a .222/.334/.376 line for the Mudcats. A fractured hamate ended his season in late August.

With the ninth selection of the Rule 4 Draft, the Brewers nabbed California-Irvine standout Keston Hiura. Hiura’s a second baseman by trade, but acted as a strict DH throughout his final collegiate season amidst concerns over an injured elbow. Any worries about whether he could field were mitigated by the fact that Hiura can really, really hit. He walloped Arizona League pitching with a .425 TAv before moving up to Class-A Wisconsin and posting a .326 TAv in just over 100 plate appearances. Hiura returned to the dirt towards the end of the season and held his own at second base. He will push Diaz for superiority in the top prospect pecking order when he gets his first taste of the Carolina League next season.

2018 Outlook
Barring any significant off-season moves, Jonathan Villar is again the odds-on favorite to start at second on Opening Day. Should he stumble out of the gate, he could cede some playing time to Nate Orf, or to a random free agent signing. Mauricio Dubon could likely benefit from another year of AAA pitching, while the high-upside duo of Diaz and Hiura are set to slug it out for a promotion to Biloxi. Keep an eye on Dubon’s ISO, Diaz’s strikeout percentage, and Hiura’s work with the glove. Villar will reach free agency after the 2020 campaign. By this time next year, we should have a pretty good idea of his heir apparent.

Photo Credit: Benny Sieu, USAToday Sports Images

Continuing age-based analysis of minor league statistics, the 2016 Midwest League could be the most interesting case yet. Unlike the Southern League or Pacific Coast League, the Midwest League featured a group of three different age levels with similar production, and two adjacent age groups that did not fall far. From age-21 to age-22 to age-23 players, Midwest League bats slashed .245 / .316 / .356, .249 / .318 / .352, and .247 / .317 / .353, respectively. On the outskirts, age-20 batted .249 / .307 / .367 while age-24 batted .252 / .315 / .333, giving the league an expansive middle ground of 345 players that can be judged by very similar production standards.

One might ask whether this reflects the nascent stages of minor league competition, perhaps where players may be closer to the same development curve, thereby exhibiting less stratification among minor league players. Perhaps Class-A is the first level at which “organizational lifers” emerge, or players hit their first professional ceiling and stick around for a year or two before heading to their next career. It would be worthwhile digging into a scouting explanation for this phenomenon, in order to see how the physical tools relate to the statistics; perhaps everyone (or almost everyone) at Class-A is still learning the strike zone, or pitch recognition, or some foundational trait that places the vast majority of players on the same level.

There are a number of notable bats that defined the Timber Rattlers in 2016. Isan Diaz produced one of the best seasons at the Class-A level, and although he did not win MVP, he certainly has the performance level worthy of consideration. Lucas Erceg also stormed the league out of the 2016 draft, demonstrating a completely different developmental stage (relatively polished college draftee) than Diaz. Along with Diaz and Erceg, several depth players produced interesting or good seasons, giving fans and writers more players to think about and watch during the 2017 campaign. Perhaps no one will be more interesting to follow than Monte Harrison, whose statistical line was damaged by a rough April and early-May, and whose hot streak was cut short by injury. Harrison has shown flashes of “putting it together,” so it will be crucial to see how he returns from injury.

Down in Florida, the Brevard County club had a rough season, mostly due to the bats. This level lagged behind in the system during 2016, and unfortunately, even age-based statistics do not allow one to reconsider many gems.

It is worth noting that Corey Ray produced a fine campaign, based on his age level and the fact that he was making his professional debut in an aggressive assignment. While Ray’s surface stats of .247 / .307 / .385 does not look very good, age-21 players in the Florida State League were notably worse than that production level, allowing one to see that Ray showed solid hitting, discipline, and (especially) strong isolated slugging. Even if one follows scouting reports to raise some questions about the hit tool, there is a sense that Ray’s tools are already showing up in his stat line, even if that line is depressed by his environment.

AAA Colorado Springs Sky Sox (67-71)

MVP: C/1B Josmil Pinto

Pinto spent the entire season with Colorado Springs, splitting time between first base and catcher. The former top-101 prospect posted the highest OPS on the team among players with at least 200 plate appearances while also throwing out 30 percent of attempted base thieves from behind the dish and accruing a sterling 16.4 FRAA (despite a reputation as a subpar defender). Pinto is a minor league free agent after the season, but it might be a good idea for Milwaukee to try and keep the 27 year old around as organizational depth at both catcher and first base.

315 PA || .308/.362/.517 || 11 HR || 0 SB || .282 TAv

Pitcher: LHP Brent Suter

Prior to being called up to the big leagues in August, Suter was undoubtedly the Sky Sox’ best pitcher. Despite a menacing pitching environment in Colorado Springs, the soft-tossing Harvard grad prevented runs as a rate well-below league average and was leading the team in innings pitched at the time of his promotion. Suter has functioned as both a starter and reliever in the minors, but his best role in the big leagues might be as a left-handed specialist out of the bullpen.

110.7 IP || 3.50 ERA || 3.41 FIP || 75 K || 14 BB || 5 HR || 1.29 WHIP || 41% GB

AA Biloxi Shuckers (72-67)

MVP: OF Brett Phillips

It was a down year offensively for most of the Shuckers roster, and Phillips is no exception despite being named the team’s MVP. He saw a significant and concerning increase in his strikeouts leading to a large drop in batting average, though he did take plenty of walks and lead the club with 16 home runs. Some of the sheen has worn off Phillips’ prospect star thanks to his down season and the addition of shiny new prospects through trades, but he still has a chance to be an above-average regular in center field with what’s probably the best outfield arm in the organization.

517 PA || .229/.332/.397 || 16 HR || 12 SB || .274 TAv

Pitcher: RHP Brandon Woodruff

The 23-year old began the year in high-A but eventually wound up leading the Shuckers in innings pitched after a well-deserved early season promotion. Woodruff lead all the minor leagues in strikeouts this year and has started gaining some attention outside of Brewers’ circles, including being frequently mentioned in Fangraphs editor Carson Cistulli’s “Fringe Five” column. He’s a shoo-in for the organization’s minor league pitcher of the year, and some have said he could factor into the big league starting rotation as soon as next season.

113.7 IP || 3.01 ERA || 2.49 FIP || 124 K || 30 BB || 4 HR || 1.04 WHIP || 49% GB

High-A Brevard County Manatees (40-97)

MVP: 1B/3B Dustin DeMuth

A fifth-round senior sign from the 2014 draft, DeMuth has hit rather well since reaching the professional ranks (though he’s been old for most of his leagues). The Manatees had a season to forget; however, DeMuth was one of the lone bright spots on offense, overcoming a slow start to league the club in OPS and home runs before earning a promotion to AA Biloxi to finish out the season. He’s played a little bit of third base, second base, and corner outfield during his professional career, but spent almost all year at first base in 2016, and could perhaps have a true corner utility profile at the big league level.

411 PA || .287/.358/.404 || 6 HR || 2 SB || .287 TAv

Pitcher: RHP Jon Perrin

If you love to root for late-round success stories, then Perrin is the man for you. The 27th-round pick from 2015 began the year by dominating the Midwest League before being moved up and dominating the Florida State League and earning a start in AA to close out the year. Perrin’s outstanding control should help him make it to the big leagues, where his three-pitch mix could help him become a back-end starter.

110.7 IP || 2.60 ERA || 2.66 FIP || 95 K || 19 BB || 4 HR || 1.15 WHIP || 49% GB

Low-A Wisconsin Timber Rattlers (71-69)

MVP: 2B/SS Isan Diaz

Diaz came over from Arizona this past winter and it’s safe to say he made a good first impression on his new organization. The 20-year old infielder showed off impressive power and an advanced approach at the plate while tearing through the Midwest League, and should undoubtedly be named the club’s minor league player of the year. He split this season between shortstop and second base, though his long-term home will be at the keystone. Diaz should be a solid defender there, rounding out a potential first-division regular profile.

587 PA || .264/.358/.469 || 20 HR || 11 SB || .290 TAv

Pitcher: RHP Jordan Yamamoto

Marcos Diplan was on-track for this award before a mid-season promotion to Brevard County, so I’ll go with Yamamoto for this award after leading the T-Rats in innings pitched while posting solid run prevention numbers and even better peripheral statistics. Baseball Prospectus scout James Fisher noted that Yamamoto throws a four-pitch mix but can struggle with command, adding his likely role is more like organizational depth. Maybe if the command can improve, there’s a potential back-end starter in there somewhere.

134.3 IP || 3.82 ERA || 2.53 FIP || 152 K || 31 BB || 6 HR || 1.20 WHIP || 48% GB

Rookie Helena Brewers (28-46)

MVP: 1B Ronnie Gideon

Another late-rounder to root for, Gideon absolutely throttled Pioneer League pitching after being chosen in the 23rd round out of Texas A&M in this summer’s draft. He finished with the league lead in home runs and was eighth in OPS while playing first base for Helena. I don’t know how much of a ceiling there is here when one considers that Gideon was a collegiate player who was old for the league, but home run power is becoming a rarer commodity in the game. If Gideon keeps hitting boatloads of home runs, he’ll keep getting chances to advance.

245 PA || .321/.371/.638 || 17 HR || 1 SB || .329 TAv

Pitcher: RHP Jordan Desguin

Desguin was Milwaukee’s 36th-round pick out of Florida Gulf Coast in 2015 and he’s posted solid run prevention numbers at each stop as a pro. He began this year by tossing 40 quality innings for Helena in an environment that heavily favors offense before earning a promotion to low-A. Desguin began his collegiate career as a shortstop and has only been pitching for about three years, but Fisher doesn’t think he has much more room to grow before settling in as organizational depth.

40.0 IP || 3.60 ERA || 4.45 FIP || 40 K || 11 BB || 3 HR || 1.12 WHIP || 39% GB

Arizona Brewers (24-29)

MVP: C/1B Gabriel Garcia

The 18 year old Garcia was drafted in the 14th round in this year’s draft as a catcher. However, Garcia spent most of his time in the AZL at first base, though he also appeared behind the plate, at third base, and shortstop. He slugged 18 extra base hits in 37 games, and his OPS was more than 100 points higher than anyone else on the team. He showed good power in junior college, too, and if he can stay behind the plate it’s an intriguing profile.

150 PA || .300/.393/.500 || 2 HR || 4 SB || .325 TAv

Pitcher: RHP Emerson Gibbs

The Brewers took Gibbs in the 33rd round out of Tulane in this year’s draft, and he looked dominant in the AZL before getting promoted to Helena to finish the season. He probably should have dominated, since he was nearly a year and a half older than the league, but it’s still nice to see strong numbers on a team that generally struggled with pitching performances. Gibbs throws a fastball/curveball combo with good control but at this point it’s hard to see him as more than intriguing depth with a potential relief profile.

27.0 IP || 2.00 ERA || 2.31 FIP || 29 K || 3 BB || 0 HR || 1.11 WHIP || 56% GB

Dominican Summer League Brewers (26-44)

MVP: C/1B Moises Perez

This was Perez’s first season as a professional at age 17, and he made it a pretty good one. He split time at first base an catcher, though a 17 percent caught stealing rate from behind the plate might mean he’s better suited for first. Perez lead the club in home runs and OPS and will be hoping to make the jump stateside next season.

175 PA || .226/.339/.438 || 7 HR || 5 SB || .272 TAv

Pitcher: RHP Alberto Paulino

This was also Paulino’s first professional season, and he was dominant in the DSL while serving as the Brewers closer. He saved five games and let in just one earned run all season, but at age 25 he was nearly six years old for the league. Paulino might’ve earned a job playing baseball somewhere next season, but there’s not likely to be much of a future in baseball.

23.2 IP || 0.38 ERA || 2.06 FIP || 23 K || 7 BB || 0 HR || 0.97 WHIP || 50% GB

That’s damn near four out of five baseball fans who believe La Russa and Stewart should be put out on their respective kiesters. Standing by them is the baseball-fan version of being the one dentist who says “screw Trident, just load up on the sugary stuff–what’s the worst that could happen?”

If such universal disdain for such a green braintrust–La Russa and Stewart just took over for Kevin Towers less than two years ago– is puzzling, one needs only to look at the Diamondbacks’ series against the Atlanta Braves August 22-24 for some clarity. These two teams had, of course, been partners in one of the most roundly criticized trades of the past offseason–the Diamondbacks sent outfielder Ender Inciarte, pitching prospect Aaron Blair and first overall pick Dansby Swanson to Atlanta for starting pitcher Shelby Miller.

At the time, the deal was considered a lopsided mess, but by August it had turned into an utter bloodbath. The Braves were out of contention, yes–but in light of this the exciting Swanson had been summoned to audition for the team’s shortstop job. The three-game series in Arizona marked the end of Swanson’s first week in big-league baseball. Miller, meanwhile, was pitching at AAA following a flameout that took the winter trade from “massive overpay” to “historic fleecing” levels. Miller’s demise had coincided with a tragic swoon from a team that had been crafted to Win Right Now–the juxtaposition of Swanson and Miller worked like salt in the wound of a dismal season for Diamondbacks fans. It was the most visible, most immediately intense, most supremely frustrating pain.

But Dansby Swanson wasn’t the only young, talented shortstop who the Diamondbacks gave up for surprisingly little last winter. A month and a half after the ill-fated Miller deal, the Diamondbacks completed a swap with the Brewers that could, over the long run, turn out just as disastrous for Arizona.

Right now, most people don’t even know that what transpired was even all that bad. MLBTR, for example, spotlighted the Jean Segura deal as an example of how “not all of [La Russa and Stewart’s] prominent transactions have produced wholly unappealing outcomes.” But just give it time, and infield prospect Isan Diaz–the crown jewel that Milwaukee coveted in the deal–might go down as the biggest fish that got away during the La Russa era.

Diaz was a supplemental second round selection of Arizona’s in the 2014 Draft as a shortstop out of Springfield Central High School in Massachusets. He also had an offer to play at Vanderbilt, but the Diamondbacks were able to convince him to forego college ball and head straight to the pros by taking him in the second competitive balance round of the draft. Back then, Diaz was viewed as approximately a fifth-round talent, and the Diamondbacks were able to convince him to pass on college for a $750,000 signing bonus, about $58,000 below the assignment for the slot.

Diaz made his pro debut in 2014 for the Diamondbacks’ Arizona instructional league team, and, early on, those who criticized him as an overdraft looked as if their concerns were apt. In 212 plate appearances over 49 games, Diaz slashed .187/.289/.330 and was caught stealing (5) almost as often as he successfully stole a base (6). On paper, it certainly looked like the young shortstop had made the wrong decision in turning down the collegiate scholarship, and the Diamondbacks had screwed up even further by taking him so high. But that’s the problem with judging a minor leaguer solely on their stats. Despite his lackluster pro debut, BP’s prospect staff saw fit to include him as one of Arizona’s Prospects on the Rise in the spring of 2015. Their write-up noted his “shaky pro debut,” but immediately declared that it “belies the advanced feel at the plate he had on display throughout the lead up to this year’s draft.” Diaz’s defense drew knocks–it’s pretty much a given that he is going to play second base at the Major League level even though he has been a shortstop up to this point. But the overall forecast, that Diaz “could put up impressive numbers at the lower levels in short order,” proved to be prophetic.

A year removed from his initial scuffling, Diaz proceeded to set the Pioneer League on fire in 2015. He brought his slash line up to .360/.436/.640, almost doubled his isolated power (.143 to .279), and paired 13 home runs with 12 steals. His Billings Mustangs won the league title, and Diaz himself was named the Pioneer League MVP. The ensuing January, he was written up as a fantasy prospect for the first time–in Wilson Karaman’s “Second Basemen on the Ocean Floor” feature. He was still a deep, deep prospect–but he’d become an interesting one. Interesting enough that the Brewers took a $6.5 million gamble on Aaron Hill to make Diaz the prospect in the Segura deal.

Hill, of course, paid dividends splendidly in 2016, as the Brewers saw positive value from him and then were able to flip him for two more prospects. But Diaz was the key to the deal from the beginning. As Christopher Crawford wrote at the time of the trade:

“Diaz…showed more offensive potential than even his biggest supporters/family memebers could have imagined [in 2015]. There’s always been plus power potential from his quality bat speed and leverage, but the swing that was shown in batting practice finally showed up in games. He’s a selective hitter who draws walks and waits for his pitch, and although that selectivity also leads to plenty of strikeouts there’s enough feel for hitting to project at least a fringe-average hit tool.”

The Arizona front office clearly thought that this 2015 explosion had been a fluke–if they didn’t, they’d have never been so willing to part with him. But the 2016 season cemented Diaz as a top prospect with a brilliant future.

Diaz has come close to repeating MVP-caliber season. He handled an aggressive assignment to full-season ball incredibly well, landing among the best players in the Midwest League. Diaz plied his trade for the Wisconsin Timber Rattlers this past season, and while his contact numbers fell back to reality somewhat, the power he displayed in 2015 was back and on display in full force. Playing in full-season ball for the first time can be a stumbling block for some prospects, and Diaz was young for the league at 20 years old, but he more than held his own with a .273/.367/.486 slash, and more impressively 20 home runs plus an isolated power mark north of .200 again.

Twice this season, BP Eyewitness Reports complied a scouting report on Diaz. James Fisher’s May 3rd report came out earlier in the season, and scored him as an overall 50, with a 55 hit tool as his best score and 40s in Power and Speed. At that point in time, Fisher cautioned that a fully-matured Diaz’s power stroke “will be more doubles power, with 9-13 home runs on an annual basis.” But Fisher raved about Diaz’s hitting:

“Setup in the box is even stance with slight crouch and slight bat waggle; Rocks back to load with small leg kick but stays balanced; Above-average bat speed with slight uppercut swing; Barrel stays in hitting zone and finds the ball; Recognizes spin; Has an approach at the plate;”

Additionally, Fisher caught a full Diaz at-bat on video:

This at-bat didn’t end in one of Diaz’s 20 home runs, and he only took one swing, but that’s no bother–there’s still plenty we can take away from this sequence of pitches. Diaz’s advanced approach and gift for recognizing spin are apparent–other than the fake bunt on 3-0 there were no planned takes, yet at no point does he come even close to chasing a bad pitch. Diaz’s pre-pitch setup and motions are minimalist in a refined way, ironed down to their bare, efficient necessities and consistent as the outfield grass. To read Diaz’s numbers is one thing–but to truly understand the reason for the hype, you need to see him in action. There are so many little things he does that just don’t show up in the box score night to night, but will make him great in the long run.

Earlier this week, Mauricio Rubio completed his own Eyewitness Report. He concurred with Fisher on Diaz’s Speed, Glove, and Arm grades–a 40 and two 50s, respectively, but Rubio grades Diaz’s hit tool out to a 60–5 points higher than Fisher–and his power to a 55–a full 15 points higher than the other scout originally declared back in May. Does this mean that Fisher was incorrect in his assesment? Hardly. Rubio’s verbal assessment of Diaz’s power reads a little bit less critically, but the verbiage is actually quite similar. However, Rubio’s evaluation occurred after Diaz submitted another season with .200-plus isolated power. Rubio also buffers his more optimistic projection with a higher Risk Factor. In summary, the major-leaguer that James Fisher projected from his April evaluations is still very much a possibility–but after Diaz skipped Low-A and put up the numbers he did over a full season at A-ball, he’s shown the potential to turn into something more than just an average hit-first second baseman, and fully owned a bump to his ceiling.

In fact, Fisher himself confirmed as much in a chat session earlier this month:

Keith (Farmington, CT): Thanks James. Given his hot second half, where would you put Isan Diaz‘s ceiling? Is occasional all-star 2B too high?

James Fisher: I think you nailed his ceiling Keith. I’ll admit that I was a little bit light on him early in the year but the bat is a 6 with at least average power. I got a four game set with him this weekend and the batspeed is elite with good swing path and the ability to make adjustments. Defensively he can get a little lazy but he makes the plays he should. He should be in line for a promotion before the end of the year.

Rubio also brought us back a video to evaluate. This one includes three at-bats–a single, a walk, and a flyout:

All of the things I noted from the first video are confirmed here. Once again Diaz’s pre-pitch routines are efficient and focused, with a discerning hitter’s eye to match. You can tell when he’s selling out for power in the counts that you want to do that, because his swing gets bigger and longer. As such, it is fair to expect that there will always be some swing-and-miss to his game–and his hyper-patient approach, and willingness to take strikes he doesn’t find appealing, will only serve to amplify his strikeout totals further. But that’s life for you–nothing comes for free, and everything is some sort of trade-off. Those strikeouts are the price you pay to do business with a potential All-Star who can easily put up 20+ home runs a year at the keystone.

Perhaps the most impressive part of Diaz’s package as a hitter is how well he drives the ball all over the field. Some power hitters are incapable of doing anything but pulling the ball–Diaz, though, isn’t a good power hitter, but a good hitter who also has exceptional power, as his Eyewitness Reports attest to. He’s just as capable of driving an outside pitch over the opposite wall, or squaring one up and parking it in the deepest reaches of dead center:

Up to this point in time, Diaz has played shortstop primarily. He appeared there 90 times this season, while also playing second base 38 times. It marked the beginning of a transition that’s been rumored for years now. Both of the Eyewitness Reports parrot concerns that have been raised regarding Diaz’s game since before the Brewers even traded for him–he has average arm strength, he doesn’t quite have the range you want out of your shortstop, and he doesn’t really do anything extra to make up for these shortcomings. Fortunately, the Brewers already have a defensive wizard at shortstop in Orlando Arcia, and those issues will be less crippling for Diaz when he’s playing second. He’s never going to be a highlight reel defender, but he’ll be a highlight reel bat who doesn’t hurt you defensively. And if things ever get dire and the team is stretched thin by injuries, he won’t exactly kill you if he’s pressed into duty at short for a brief period. But let’s hope it never comes to that.

PECOTA is still projecting Diaz as a shortstop, which skews things a bit, but his two most accurate comparisons are both players who have had splendid 2016 seasons, and both comparisons should make Milwaukee fans giddy with excitement. Cincinnati’s Eugenio Suarez has 20 home runs coming into September, and he’s been worth more than two wins in each of the past two seasons after his power failed to materialize during his rookie year, during which he spent playing half of his games in the cavernous digs of Comerica Park. Since Miller Park is on the reverse end of the homer-happy spectrum, we need not worry about such a fate befalling Diaz.

Colorado shortstop Trevor Story, the second PECOTA similarity on Diaz’s page, plays in a home park much more similar to Miller Park. Despite playing his last game in July, Story is still considered a front-runner for the NL Rookie of the Year award. That will happen when you slug 27 home runs in just 97 games. Story was worth 3.6 WARP in two-thirds of a season–and though projecting streaky players like him is a whole lot of educated guesswork, that translates to about 5.5 WARP and  about 45 homers over a full season if he could keep up the pace. Diaz has never posted a .296 ISO, like Story did this season, but his .279 mark in 2015 shows that he’s at least capable of a similar power surge.

While PECOTA still sees him as a shortstop, and thus hasn’t made this connection yet, Rougned Odor is another player who Diaz has drawn comparisons to. Odor has become one of the faces of the Texas Rangers, who will play in the postseason barring a historic collapse. He’s been a three-win player in each of the past two seasons and will likely top 30 home runs by the end of the season.

Brewer fans might be wondering how Diaz will find his place with Scooter Gennett playing his way into increased long-term consideration, but they need not. Depending on how much the front office wants to push him, Diaz is ticketed to either High-A or AA next season, and he is already making his way to the Arizona Fall League. Meanwhile, Gennett will be entering his fifth season of team control, and after 2018 he will be eligible for free agency. By that time, even if the Brewers have slow-played Diaz’s development — he will have had a season each at High-A and AA, and if he continues hitting like he has the past two seasons, he will be more than capable of skipping AAA like so many of the team’s prospects have in the past. In the worst-case scenario, if there’s a one-year gap between Diaz’s development and the second-base opening, the team could always bridge the gap with a veteran free agent.

The Brewers traded for Diaz last offseason hoping that he could replicate his monster 2015 season. Now, with that done, the next step will be for him to carry it from level to level. If he can, he’ll be one of the top prospects in all of baseball before long.

Related Reading:
Timber Rattler Arms
Making the Transition: Trent Clark
Lucas Erceg and Third Base Futures

Once fans come to Wisconsin for Isan Diaz, they can stay for other intriguing positional prospects, as the club is beginning to shape out its 2014 and 2015 draft legacies. At this turn, the low minors arms may be ahead of the low minors bats in the Brewers system, and Wisconsin arguably reflects that balance. Prospects such as Diaz, Trent Clark, Monte Harrison, Jake Gatewood, Lucas Erceg, and Troy Stokes, Jr., have a collection of solid tools, but their profiles thus far grade slightly behind their pitching teammates in terms of impact. Beyond these well-recognized names, one might even dig for some sleepers at Wisconsin, although the caveat about leaping to the next levels to define or change a ceiling apply here, too.

The lack of clearly-defined ceilings for several Wisconsin bats is not necessarily a concern at Class-A, since these players must advance through the next A-level club and make the leap into the upper minors before the probability of their respective ceilings becomes even clearer. Below, BaseballProspectus scout and writer James Fisher notes that a couple of Timber Rattlers have defensive profiles that are awaiting a step forward from the bat; there are even some prospects that need additional looks. In this sense, the 2016 Timber Rattlers effectively define (and headline) the Brewers loaded organizational depth even where they fail to define better than average MLB ceilings.

Midwest League Environment
Judging minor league players by their statistics is a tricky endeavor. First and foremost, since players are developing their tools at the minor league level, their actual performances on the field are not always indicative of their MLB ceiling or potential future value. Furthermore, if a player is honing in on one specific area of their respective toolbox, other areas of their performance may suffer in their statistics. In this case, it is somewhat possible to have a player move forward without necessarily showcasing each of their tools in their statistical record. Age and development levels can also impact a player’s performance; this is especially true in the Midwest League, for instance, where a 19-year-old performing in their first full season of professional play after being drafted out of high school would be expected to perform at a different level than a polished college player working in their age-21 or age-22 season.

With that in mind, one way to consider minor league statistics is by judging each player within their specific context of age, opposition strength, and league strength. For example, the Midwest League is a much more depressed environment than the Class-A counterpart South Atlantic League, which impacts how one can read statistics. League statistics were compiled for the first installment of this series, August 20-22, 2016:

With this in mind, I developed two charts to judge batting and pitching context for the Midwest League. 218 Midwest League batters have had regular play after the June draft or throughout the season, with a base threshold of 130 PA:

The 90th percentile is most elite, meaning that a player facing .661 opposingOPS pitchers is facing tougher competition than 90 percentof the league, or a .300 TAv is better than 90% of Midwest League regulars (i.e., the other way around, that player would be in the Top 10 percent of production). In terms of age, the 20th percentile is old for the level, the 90th percentile age is extremely young.

For pitchers, 228 arms have worked 30 innings or more:

In this case, a 2.55 FIP is better than 90% of regular hurlers, and a pitcher that faces a .682 opposingOPS is facing tougher competition than 90 percent of the Midwest League regular arms. One can note that comparing the full Midwest League with “regular players,” regular batters (130+ PA) have posted a much better median TAv than the league median (.252 TAv for regulars, .243 TAv for the full league). So, one might expect a regular batter to have a better performance in this sense (depending on their age and strength of opposition, of course).

Wisconsin Batters Scouted
The following entries are built from BP James Fisher’s scouting notes, which were compiled during an early August series in Appleton. All statistics compiled on August 24, 2016.

Catchers
Max McDowell (80th percentile TAv, 50th percentile age, 50th percentile competition): McDowell is a large framed catcher with strength throughout. At the plate, he starts with an even stance and rests the bat on his shoulder before moving his hands up to his ear. Has slightly below average batspeed and doesn’t recognize spin. Behind the plate, McDowell has a low seat with a quiet frame. He struggles to handle quality stuff, with changeups especially giving him fits. Boxes plenty of balls as well as passed balls through the wickets. Throws well with 1.93-1.98 pop times, and the footwork helps the arm play up a touch. AA/AAA Ceiling. Wisconsin Note: McDowell has produced an excellent TAv at a median age, and against median competition.

Natanael Mejia (below 20th percentile TAv, 20th percentile age, 90th percentile competition): Large, soft bodied catcher. Mejia starts from a slightly open stance and high hands. Below average batspeed and limited contact ability. Defensively, he moves ok behind the plate, but lacks the ability to handle quality stuff. A Ceiling. Wisconsin Note: As a notably old player, Mejia faced the most difficult competition and produced a poor TAv.

Infielders
Luis Aviles (50th percentile TAv, 60th percentile age, 30th percentile competition): Aviles has a lean athletic frame with wiry strength throughout. From an even, upright stance in the box with his hands at his shoulder, Aviles has average batspeed but struggles with pitch recognition at present. Aviles can really pick it in the field. He moves side-to-side well and has body control for short. The arm is a 6, with true carry through the bag and ability to make throws from different angles. At this point, Aviles is a defensive specialist that lacks bat to ball. AA/AAA ceiling unless light comes on with bat. Wisconsin Note: Aviles is a slightly younger than median player with a median TAv against relatively weak competition.

Isan Diaz (80th percentile TAv, 90th percentile age, 40th percentile competition): Athletic, medium framed second baseman with premium offensive toolset. At the plate, Diaz combines a quality bat path with a slight uppercut. It’s a loose, easy swing with above average batspeed and barrel awareness. Diaz understands his weight transfer, at times making hitting look easy, and he really lets his hands do the work. The ceiling is a 6 hitter with at least average pop. In the field he is just a step short for shortstop and has trouble going right. At second his feet will be average and the arm will play.
MLB Role: First division regular with all-star potential.
Wisconsin Note: Diaz is among the youngest players in the Midwest League, and produced a notably above average TAv against near-median competition.

Lucas Erceg (90th percentile TAv, 60th percentile age, 30th percentile competition): Tall, lean framed third baseman with feel to hit and plus arm. There is room for strength projection here. At the plate, Erceg starts tall with slightly open stance and hands at his ear, combining 6 bat speed with hands that work and a loose swing. Can get long at times, but makes adjustments. In the field, he has soft hands and enough range for third. Erceg’s arm is a weapon.
MLB Role: Regular at 3B.
Wisconsin Note: As a relatively young player facing relatively weak competition, Erceg is producing an elite TAv.

Jake Gatewood (30th percentile TAv, 80th percentile age, 40th percentile competition): Gatewood is a tall, lean framed infielder with plus power and arm strength. At the plate, he starts from an even stance with his hands at his shoulder, and has average bat speed. However, Gatewood struggles to make adjustments, and spin will always give him trouble. The raw power is a 7, but he lacks enough contact to get there. Gatewood is mixing time between third and first at present with enough range and arm for third, but he needs to hit. AA/AAA ceiling unless bat takes big jump forward. Wisconsin Note: Gatewood remains notably young at Class-A, and is producing a below average TAv against near-median competition.

Jonathan Oquendo (below 20th percentile TAv, 80th percentile age, 80th percentile competition): Tall, lean frame with athleticism. Oquendo starts at the plate with an even stance and his hands at his shoulder. The bat path is inconsistent, but he does have average batspeed. Oquendo doesn’t like spin and is susceptible to it on outer half. With long lanky strides, he is a slightly below average runner. DH’ed in my look. Hold on ceiling until further looks. Wisconsin Note: Oquendo is a notably young player facing very tough competition, and is producing a poor TAv.

Alan Sharkey (below 20th percentile TAv, 50th percentile age, 50th percentile competition): Medium, strong framed first baseman with strong lower half. At the plate Sharkey’s bat speed and pitch recognition are lacking. There is power potential from strength in frame, but he won’t make enough contact to reach it. Average at best at first base. Has reached ceiling. Wisconsin Note: As a median age player against median competition, Sharkey posted a poor TAv.

Outfielders
Carlos Belonis (below 20th percentile TAv, 60th percentile age, below 20th percentile competition): Tall, lean framed outfielder with athleticism. Belonis starts with a closed front foot and his hands above his head at the plate, and he strides closed. He has average bat speed, but an inconsistent swing path and approach leave him behind. He often guesses on pitches and huntsfor fastballs because he struggles with spin. In the field Belonis has an average arm and enough athleticism to handle a corner outfield spot. A/AA ceiling at best. Wisconsin Note: Belonis faced weak competition and was relatively young for Midwest League, and he posted a poor TAv.

Trent Clark (60th percentile TAv, 90th percentile age, 40th percentile competition): Strong, medium framed, athletic outfielder with plus tools at the plate and the field. Starting at the plate with a slightly open stance and his funky hands at shoulder, Clark’s plus batspeed and a consistent bat path lead to loft. The power will come as the plate discipline does for Clark; there is plenty of strength and batspeed to project average power. In the field he is still recovering from leg issues, but is running okay (4.10, 4.12, 4.38, 4.12, 4.44). Handles center at present with solid jumps and routes, but most likely a corner outfielder with enough arm for right.
MLB Role: 4th OF/Regular.
Wisconsin Note: Clark is among the youngest players, and posted a slightly better than average TAv against near-median competition.

Brandon Diaz (below 20th percentile TAv, 60th percentile age, below 20th percentile competition): Diaz is a small framed, athletic outfielder with batspeed and defensive tools. Starting at the plate with open stance and hands at shoulder, Diaz has average batspeed and some feel for the barrel. Runs okay in left and has an average arm. Only 3 AB’s. Need more of a look. Wisconsin Note: Diaz has a poor TAv at a relatively young age facing weak competition.

Troy Stokes Jr (80th percentile TAv, 80th percentile age, 30th percentile competition): Stokes is a small framed athletic outfielder with strength throughout. Physically maxed out. At the plate he starts with an even stance and his hands at his shoulder, and gets into a slight bat wrap at times and messes up his timing. Stokes has average bat speed but struggles with pitch recognition. Isn’t a burner with 55 run times. Interesting routes in LF at times but is solid. Tweener 4th outfielder type when all is said and done. AA/AAA ceiling. Wisconsin Note: Stokes is notably young and facing relatively weak competition, and is posting a notably above average TAv.

DL:
Tucker Neuhaus (90th percentile TAv, 60th percentile age, below 20th percentile competition); Juan Ortiz (below 20th percentile TAv, 60th percentile age, below 20th percentile competition); Monte Harrison (20th percentile TAv, 80th percentile age, 50th percentile competition)

James Fisher is a BaseballProspectus scout and author.