Yet, if anything the 2017-2018 Brewers have also proven that developmental time is not linear at the MLB level, and furthermore, GM David Stearns has not been afraid to deal from stockpiles of future high floor roles to improve the club. Most prominently, Stearns traded center field prospect Lewis Brinson, many fans’ and analysts’ projected 2018 MLB starter, as a part of the package to acquire Christian Yelich, despite center field being a position of need. Now the Brewers have a need to improve second base, and another clear-cut top prospect at the position (Keston Hiura, and Mauricio Dubon behind him); simply judging Stearns’s past, one should not rule out a trade involving Hiura should the price be right and the return bolster a position of strength.

On the opposite spectrum for the Brewers is left-handed starting pitching, which is arguably the sole position on the roster decimated by both injury (Brent Suter) and free agency (Gio Gonzalez, Wade Miley). Worse yet, unlike a position such as second base (which is a clear position of need), left handed starting pitching was a relative strength for the Brewers in 2018. Unlike second base, there’s no notable southpaw prospect ready for the rotation.

• Suter scouts as a prototypical depth player, but his full-time fastball approach, wicked tempo, and strange angles arguably helps his stuff “play up” at the big league level; by no means was Suter great, but he certainly did not sink the club, and was one of the reasons that the “replacement by design” rotational shuffle of interchangeable pitchers could work.

• On the other hand, Gonzalez served as a crucial replacement for the Brewers, indeed producing exceptional value on any rotational assessment despite having only been acquired after August 31.

• Similarly, Wade Miley could arguably be listed as the “Ace” of the club, and certainly stands as one of the team’s developmental successes. Even if Miley had discovered his cutter by the middle of 2017 with Baltimore, the Brewers recognized his pitch development and helped the southpaw double down on his approach and command the strike zone.

Milwaukee boasts significant pitching depth entering the 2019 season, arguably forming the strength of the organization through their run prevention system. Yet left-handed starting pitching is a weakness even given the context of this particular organization. There are no notable left-handed starting pitching prospects that are near reaching an MLB-ready floor for 2019, and there is little in the way of organizational depth behind Brent Suter (who, given the nature of Tommy John surgery, may not be ready to pitch until very late in 2019). Thus Brewers fans looking for the club to make a splash in free agency could reasonably look at southpaw starters.

There are arguably three particular classes of pitchers among the “true” left-handed starting pitching free agents in 2019. (Here I’ve excluded elite arms like Clayton Kershaw and David Price, who could choose to opt out of contracts, but only would do so on the sense that they could best $35 million Average Annual Value (AAV), which would be the required level to beat their current deals). Cot’s Contracts and Sportrac Data were used to construct a free agency list.

• Elite 2018 or Notably Better than Average Pitchers (by WARP and Runs Prevented): Patrick Corbin, Dallas Keuchel, J.A. Happ, and Hyun-jin Ryu

• Very Good Pitchers (by either WARP or Runs Prevented): Gio Gonzalez, CC Sabathia, Brett Anderson, and Wade Miley

• Depth Pitchers: Drew Pomeranz, Francisco Liriano, Jo-Jo Reyes, and Ross Detwiler.

The following table is one method of conveying player value for this lefty free agency class into monetary terms. I’ve used a three-year depreciation model, reflecting the fact that over time players typically lose value from their current performances (this is also a means of presenting relatively conservative contract projections). I’ve updated previous surplus assessments by presenting a rolling assessment of three-year models (2014-2016, 2015-2017, and 2016-2018), plus a “maximum” projection based on full 2018 performance. This number can be compared against the general “Three Year Trend” to determine whether a pitcher is on an upward or downward trajectory (equally tough cases here are Keuchel and Corbin, for completely different directions of performance).

• Depreciated1, Depreciated2, Depreciated3: three-year surplus value salary estimates, based on WARP from 2014-2016, 2015-2017, and 2016-2018 (in order).
• ThreeYear: this demonstrates the relative change in contractual value from 2016-2018 to 2014-2016. This is a rough estimate of a pitcher’s contractual “trend.”
• Immediate: this is a three-year surplus value salary estimate based solely on 2018 performance without any depreciation. It should be read as some type of ultimate “short term bias” value (i.e., the most biased observer from 2018 would offer Patrick Corbin a 3-year contract worth more than $120 million).

It is tempting, giving the success of pitching coach Derek Johnson in Milwaukee, as well as the success of the fielding efficiency, front office analysis, and general pitching player development, to assess the offseason free agents by looking for “The Next Wade Miley.” But this is suspicious thinking for at least two key reasons: first, many players in the MLB change their pitching approaches and development without the success of Miley; second, the Brewers simply have the opportunity to re-sign Miley from the free agency pool if the club believes that his development pattern is sustainable and he can continue to provide rotational depth. There is nothing wrong with doubling down on a successful system when the same reasoning and critical measures are used to assess that system the second time around.

To demonstrate the extreme nature of what Miley accomplished in Milwaukee, witness his progression from bread-and-butter southpaw in 2016 to his current format of pitching:

According to Brooks Baseball, Miley was already morphing his pitching approach in 2017, and that does not simply involve his insistence on incorporating the cutter after July 2017. Miley switched from his “primary” rising fastball to his “secondary” running-and-sinking variation, which took selections away from his change, slider, and curve in 2017. The veteran lefty was basically becoming an all-forms fastballer, blending three fastballs at the expense of off-speed and breaking offerings. 2018 reversed that to a stunning extent, as Miley reduced the total percentage of primary, secondary, and cut fastballs he threw, and completely reorganized his secondary stuff around the cutter. What is interesting about Miley is that he traded groundballs for whiffs with the cutter, while whiffs “played up” with other pitches once he focused on the cutter. This is the fantastic accomplishment of Miley’s 2018: not simply the development of a new prominent pitch, but the systemic development of that pitch in a manner that improved his other offerings. It would be foolish to suggest that most pitchers could be expected to thrive with such a reinvention.

Among these pitchers, there is no “next Miley,” unless you want to lean heavily into suggesting the Brewers acquire Jo-Jo Reyes and Ross Detwiler as potential depth contracts (Detwiler has the “Brewers pitches” necessary to pique interest here). But that does not mean that the Brewers should not seek any of these southpaw free agents:

• Patrick Corbin is on the frontier of baseball as a slider-first pitcher, which is crucial in a game where the slider determines leverage in many cases (including diminishing a key divisional rival for the Brewers). Signing Corbin could be a huge deal for the Brewers, both for keeping the lefty away from divisional rivals looking to improve pitching (the Reds could certainly gamble here, given their excellent batting group and lack of arms, as well as the contending Cubs). If there’s anywhere that Corbin’s margins-of-the-strike-zone approach could succeed, it’s Milwaukee, although that doesn’t necessarily mean his profile is less risky overall. The Brewers could take the next step of working with Corbin to balance his new curveball with his slider. Ideal Contract: 3-years, $100 million. Maximum deal: 4-years, $150 million. (If the rumored contract ranges around 4-years and $120 million are true, I would call Corbin a potential bargin, even).

• Dallas Keuchel is an interesting pitcher insofar as he remains relatively consistent as he ages, even though his surplus grade demonstrates a harsh decline due to falling off from previously elite seasons. Even without being an elite pitcher, Keuchel remains quite good, and he’s tinkering with his approach to move away from his “true” sinking fastball and toward a cutter-offspeed approach. Keuchel’s potential knock working in Milwaukee would be using a relatively extreme groundball approach in front of an aggressively unorthodox defense, which would mean the Brewers would need to truly sell the veteran on their fielding approach. A Keuchel deal could be the most likely to end up “sideways” due to this profile.  Ideal Contract: 3-years, $75 million. Maximum deal: 4-years, $100 million.

• Wade Miley is entering his age-32 season having completely revitalized his pitching approach; by all appearances seems to be a likable and supportive teammate in Milwaukee; and against the Dodgers even flashed a hard fastball that demonstrates that his approach could continue to morph in 2019. It would not surprise me if the Brewers have an arsenal plan with Miley to take additional steps beyond the cutter, and I’d sign Miley before any of these guys due to that likely fact. Additionally, as the Brewers mature into perennial contenders (hopefully), they would do well to prove to players that they will turn some rehabilitation projects / value-depth plays into hard cash deals. There will be a time when value signings refuse to come to Milwaukee if their value produced never materializes into bigger cash. Start here. Ideal Contract: 2-years, $20 million, with a third-year option. Maximum: 3-years, $36 million.

• Gio Gonzalez is slowly morphing into a potential change-up first pitcher, making him a true veteran “junkball” option. Ideal Contract: 3-years, $36 million. Maximum deal: 3-year, $45 million.

• Given J.A. Happ’s age, the southpaw could potentially be a short-term deal with beneficial playoff experience and a fastball-first approach that could fit some aspects of Brewers pitching strategy (notable fastballers Freddy Peralta and Suter come to mind, for example). One-year contract between $12 million and $17 million.

• If you’re obsessed with the idea of making “the next Wade Miley” work in Milwaukee, Drew Pomeranz could be the biggest name among southpaws to make that work. Pomeranz struggled through 2018 as a bigtime fastball-curveball approach. In fact, the cutter even featured more prominently during Pomeranz’s successfuly 2016 season. Unfortunately, the groundballs and whiffs simultaneously dissipated, leaving this lefty a potentially expensive gamble with an arsenal, approach, and batted ball in flux. Pomeranz is a potential project. One-year, $10 million.

• It is not clear that Hyun-jin Ryu or CC Sabathia would be likely to come to Milwaukee given their recent roles in big markets (for quite some time) and playoff team roles. Francisco Liriano had a tough year in Detroit, and I unfortunately think there are better contracts offered to the other pitchers on this list.

• No lie, I’d hand out a minor league deal to Ross Detwiler, too, if he would be willing to work within the Brewers pitching development system. This southpaw is another potential “true junkball” lefty, but along with heavy change up usage Detwiler has also added a cutter, and could move away from his sinking fastball to his rising-riding primary variation.

Rehabilitation from the shoulder surgery Nelson underwent last month will keep him out of action for most of the 2018 season. If he comes back at all next year, it will likely be in September, after rosters expand. The same thing happened with Boston and David Price this past season, and the Red Sox used Price as a reliever this year rather than get him stretched out to pitch deep into games that close to the playoffs. It’s not unlikely that the Brewers will follow a similar plan of action with Nelson. With this in mind, where are the Brewers going to find four pitching wins for the 2018 season? If Milwaukee wants to get over the hump and participate in October baseball next year, it’s not a question that can be ignored.

Given that the wounds are still fresh from the last three times Milwaukee signed free agent starters and ended up with Randy Wolf, Kyle Lohse, and Matt Garza, the Brewers might decide they would rather explore the possibility of trading for a starting pitcher who is set to hit free agency after the 2018 season. A short-term rental would, naturally, come with a more modest cost in terms of prospect compensation in a trade than a player under team control for years. But the looming return of Nelson, plus the development of Milwaukee’s young pitching prospects, mean that the team might not need this rent-a-player beyond 2018. The Brewers’ farm system has been built deep for exactly this reason.

The Quiet Options

These two pitchers are longtime MLB veterans who have never put up a season of 3.9 wins. However, their situations couldn’t be more perfect for a trade to a team like the Brewers. Milwaukee could acquire either or both of these guys cheaply, and try to make up the difference in WARP elsewhere on the roster.

J.A. Happ

Happ is turning 35 years old and is part of an aging Toronto core that stumbled to a finish behind both Boston and New York this past season, missing the playoffs entirely. The lefty has aged with a grace rarely seen in big-league players. His career trajectory has gone from “Rookie of the Year runner-up” to “fifth starter on a last-place team” to “serviceable veteran mid-rotation option,” all the way to a peak in 2016 when Happ’s 20-4 record, 3.18 ERA and 1.17 WHIP gathered him 14 votes for the American League Cy Young.

Happ’s ERA and WHIP regressed back toward the average in 2017, but not by much, while his DRA and FIP both settled into the respectable 3.70-3.75 range. Happ also struck out nearly a batter per inning and he’s had a BB/9 below 3.0 for four consecutive seasons now. Meanwhile, in an fascinating reversal of expectations, Happ has actually gained velocity as he’s aged:

Happ’s surface stats weren’t Cy Young-competitive again 2017 but he was worth three PWARP, a career high. And unless the Blue Jays plan to spend wildly on replacing their aging offensive core, selling Happ’s final contract year makes a ton of sense for them, even if his age, contract status, and unsexy history mean he’s not going to get a ton on the trade market. The Brewers easily have enough redundancies built into the farm system to part with something for Happ that Toronto can feel good about themselves for adding to the franchise, without doing any serious damage to the team’s long-term plan.

PECOTA likens Happ to a post-2013 John Lackey, which falls short of replacing Nelson but does come awfully close. Then again, he’s also closely comparable to Kyle Lohse after his first Brewers’ season. That’s not a road any of us want to drive again.

Jason Hammel

While Happ is about to turn 35, Hammel passed that milestone just as the 2017 season was drawing to a close. His best years came in the NL Central with the Cubs in 2014 and 2015, though he took a step back in 2016. Last year, pitching for the Royals, Hammel put up an ugly 5.29 ERA that both DRA and FIP agree shouldn’t have crossed that 5.00 milestone. The thing is, if it’s a stretch to imagine J.A. Happ replacing Nelson’s production, it’s a hallucination to picture Hammel doing it. He’s a twelve-year veteran with nine career pitching WARP, and the 2.9 he posted for Baltimore in 2012 is his season high.

Those trying to look at similar players for an insight into his history won’t have much luck. Hammel’s PECOTA similarities run the gauntlet from 2011 AJ Burnett–who still had a pair of five-win seasons chambered–to 2016 James Shields, who might have been one of the most ineffective pitchers to ever start 33 games in a year. Even Ben Sheets makes a cameo–the 2013 version, which was the version that retired before he could pitch that year.

Twenty years ago, overpaying for Hammel, the former division rival who might be good but is definitely not great, would’ve been the primary target for the Brewers’ front office. Thankfully, the team is no longer run by such bad baseball minds. Hammel really only makes sense if the Royals came to Milwaukee’s front office actively wanting to swap him for a younger, more controllable, but less proven back-end starter. Taylor Williams, Brandon Woodruff, and even Brent Suter are all pitchers whose low ceiling makes them expendable to the Brewers, but whose youth makes them more appealing to the rebuilding Royals than the aging Hammel. Even Suter, undoubtedly the best of that threesome, was just a half-win better than replacement level in 14 starts and 8 relief appearances. Hammel should be better than that.

The Bold Options

These two pitchers come with the potential to outperform Jimmy Nelson. They also come with major, major question marks. Either one might very well be done, or unable to touch that potential again. Both are on teams close enough to contention that their price tag might be entirely unreasonable. But they also represent a possible avenue to make up Nelson’s missing production, plus at least the one win keeping the team out of the playoffs in 2017. Their price tags, of course, should be commensurately higher.

Garrett Richards

In 2013, the Angels moved Richards from the bullpen to the starting rotation full-time. Since then,  he established himself as one of the most quietly excellent pitchers in baseball, accumulating 13.3 WARP for the Angels during that stretch. Unfortunately, he was diagnosed with a torn ligament in his throwing elbow just six starts into the 2016 season. Richards opted against Tommy John surgery, choosing instead to try a newer biometrics surgery, but the experimental decision backfired. After just one start in 2017 Ricahrds was shut down due to a nerve issue in his bicep. He made it back for five starts in September, including a promising performance on September 22nd, when he one-hit the formidable Astros over six innings, walking one and striking out six.

On the one hand, Richards is not even thirty years old yet, and has the talent to be a front-line starter. He’s posted back-to-back five-win seasons, but he also chose a more difficult path back from his UCL tear that has already caused complications and could cause even more down the line. Projecting what to expect from him next season is just about impossible, so figuring out his value isn’t much easier. Maybe he’s a front-line starter. Maybe he’s a shell of his former self.

That being said, Richards isn’t like the two quiet options. Not only does he provide a higher impact, his team is in the unique position of almost contending, but not quite contending, with absolutely no farm system to speak of but a once-in-a-generation talent on the roster. The Angels’ plans to cut into the postseason in 2018 hinge on a successful Richards comeback. However, if they could leverage his value into an improvement somewhere else on the roster without giving up anything that was helpful in 2017, well, they’d have to seriously consider that.

The Angels’ second base situation was not pretty in 2017. Danny Espinosa started the season there, but played his way out of town in spectacularly terrible fashion. By the end of the season, waiver claim Brandon Phillips was manning the position, and he’s set to hit free agency. Jonathan Villar’s value ceiling (he was worth 4.7 wins in 2016) is close enough to Richards’ to make that a good starting point for negotiations, especially since Villar doesn’t hit free agency until 2021 and both principals offer an extreme level of risk and variance for 2018.

Cole Hamels

Hamels’s peak performance is every bit as good as Richards. He was worth 6.3 wins in 2007, and more recently a combined 5.2 in 2015 between Philadelphia and Texas. But he comes with a much more reliable track record: other than a suddenly bad 2017, Hamels has been worth at least 3.7 wins above replacement every year of his Major League career.

Last season was a problem, however. Hamels’ velocity was way down across the board for the first time in his career:

Conversely, his strikeout rate fell to just 6.4 K/9, and it sapped his all-around effectiveness as a pitcher. His 4.20 ERA was the highest he’d posted since 2009, and both DRA and FIP agree that it should’ve been even higher. It would be nice and convenient if Hamels had just gotten unlucky in 2017, but that wasn’t the case. He was a shell of his former self.

It’s hardly unprecedented for a pitcher to bounce back from losing zip on his fastball, and struggling to punch batters out. In 2014, Justin Verlander saw his strikeout rate dip to 6.9 K/9. By 2016 it was back up to 10 K/9 and he looked like a Cy Young candidate again. But Verlander was 31 that year, Hamels will be 34 next season.

PECOTA is far from confident that Hamels has anything left in the tank. His first comparison, AJ Burnett, bounced back and enjoyed a late-career resurgence. Verlander did too, of course, and Hisashi Iwakuma was hardly done in 2014. But Josh Beckett, Adam Wainwright, Erik Bedard, Johan Santana, Kelvim Escobar, Roy Oswalt, and Jake Peavy were all very good pitchers who were done being effective pitchers by the dates listed in Hamels’ comparisons.

The Rangers were just three games below .500 in 2017, and they might be hesitant to part with Hamels until it’s more certain that they’re out of the playoff picture in 2018. But his dour performance last year might inspire their front office to try and move him before he craters his value even further–if he looks like a lost soft-tosser out on the mount again next spring nobody is going to see him as an “improvement” to their rotation. PECOTA says he’s a long shot to regain his prior dominance, but even assuming those 30 percent odds are close there’s a price at which taking a flier on Hamels makes a ton of sense.

Photo Credit: Jim Young, USAToday Sports Images.