The Milwaukee Brewers are coming off an 86-win season and trying to add to that success. Despite what appears to be one of the most favorable free agent markets in recent history, David Stearns seems to be turning to the trade market for improvements. In this discounted market, Stearns would be mistaken going to the trade route rather than spending in free agency.

The Brewers are rumored to be in trade talks with the Miami Marlins for Christian Yelich.

<blockquote class=”twitter-tweet” data-lang=”en”><p lang=”en” dir=”ltr”>Source : Brewers have put together a trade offer &amp; have shown strong interest Marlins OF Christian Yelich. Other teams remain in the mix.</p>&mdash; Craig Mish (@CraigMish) <a href=”https://twitter.com/CraigMish/status/955907465538822144?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw”>January 23, 2018</a></blockquote> <script async src=”https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js” charset=”utf-8″></script>

Yelich is the most valuable piece on the trade market. He’s barely twenty-six-years-old, and under a $43.3 million contract through 2021 with a $15 million team option for 2022. He’s been worth 15.8 WARP in four-and-a-half major league seasons. Yelich is a borderline superstar on an extremely team-friendly contract.

Yelich’s talent level and contract situation not only makes him the most coveted piece on the trade market this offseason, but he’s also one of the most valuable assets in the league period. He’s going to garner a haul.

A trade for Yelich like starts with one of the Brewers young outfielders, Domingo Santana or Lewis Brinson, both of which are under favorable contract situations of their own. Santana or Brinson alone won’t be nearly enough to acquire Yelich. A hypothetical trade will likely cost one of the two outfielders and probably two of the Brewers top ten prospects or one of their top three prospects. Yelich’s age, skill, and contract allow the Marlins to ask for the world.

The Brewers have one of the strongest farm systems in the league, which is one of the reasons they are in on players such as Yelich and Chris Archer. Rather than blowing up the farm system Stearns has spent the past few seasons building, he has the option of going to the free agent market to find outfield and pitching improvements.

The Brewers ended the last two seasons with the lowest payroll in the league after finishing with the 15th highest payroll in 2014, according to Cots Baseball Contracts. In other words, the organization should have money to spend.

The front office should be looking to add pieces to this young core coming up through the system, not shedding pieces to add talent. Especially when assets on the free agent market are to be had.

If the Brewers are set on improving center field, they should look no further than Lorenzo Cain. Cain is much older, not as talented, and would likely cost a bit more financially than Yelich. However, the veteran Cain wouldn’t cost anything in prospect loss, save a compensatory pick in this years draft. The Brewers could then use their deep outfield to trade for rotation or relief help.

There are plenty of options on the free agent market for Stearns to add to the starting rotation. Yu Darvish, Jake Arrieta, Lance Lynn, and Alex Cobb are just a few names who have yet to find a home. In Darvish’s case, he wouldn’t cost a compensation pick. The Brewers should be doing everything they can to add pitching in this market while they are still available. If all else fails and the team is desperate for pitching, then turn to the trade market.

There’s no reason to ruin what the Brewers have going, as far as their farm system goes. A farm system is something to build around. The Chicago Cubs won their first championship in 108 years by building and holding onto a strong farm system, and then adding veteran talent around them, most through free agency. The Brewers should be looking to go the same route, particularly in this team-friendly free agent market.

Although it’s tempting to jump the gun and acquire an Archer or Yelich, especially when you have the assets to make that possible, it’d be ideal for the Brewers to hold onto their prospects, stay out of the trade market, and build around their young prospects rather than using them as trade assets.

Photo Credit: Gary A. Vasquez, USAToday Sports Images

• (1) The front of the rotation is improved with a true, proven pitcher. (Although “aces” do not exist, if an ace were to exist, Darvish is about as close to an “ace” as it gets).

• (2) The competition in Chicago is slightly downgraded by “subtraction” (ex., if the Brewers and Cubs both were courting Darvish, the Brewers’ signing results in an abstract “loss of runs prevented” for the Cubs. This is a good thing).

• (3) Milwaukee is established as a free agent destination by virtue of their proximity to contending (this is another excellent thing).

There is nothing that is not exciting about a player like Darvish coming to Milwaukee. One of the most common fears expressed by Brewers fans and analysts is that the club could not afford Darvish’s contract, or that Darvish would divert resources in crucial roster crunch years. However, it is worth noting that this is not the case; in fact, if the Brewers were truly looking to compete with their southern rivals, the front office could be justified in adding another impact free agent (aside from Darvish) this offseason. This strategy would basically concede that the team cannot afford the elite class of 2019 free agents (which is probably true), since big markets are loudly sitting out this free agency round in order to land elite, expensive talents in 2019. That’s fine; should the Brewers land Jake Arrieta and Darvish, or Lorenzo Cain and Darvish, those are quite grand improvements for this roster.

It is worth visualizing just how strong the Brewers’ current financial standing is, in order to support multiple signings. First, a look at Forbes surveys from 2016 shows that even during the rebuilding year, the Brewers were increasing revenue, approaching the $240 million mark as a club. Given the club’s low payroll, this produced a substantial operating profit, which one can reasonably assume carried over to the 2017 scenario as well (due to the club’s low payroll in 2017, as well). Extrapolating the Forbes revenue trend, and setting aside negotiations for a new television deal after 2019, and using Cot’s Contracts figures, here is the Brewers’ five year payroll and revenue outlook:

Edit (9:00 AM): This analysis ignores future playoff revenue, since it is an unknown, as well as future MLB Advanced Media revenue, since it is unclear whether these payments will be annual or “one-off” based on MLBAM contracts.  A playoff run into the National League Division Series would likely increase annual revenue by [at least] 10 to 15 percent.

This is a team that is operating significantly in the black, or leveraging this robust financial health to purchase additional capital assets (such as the Carolina Mudcats, Spring Training upgrade, and Miller Park concessions renovations). I will not treat the normative argument about whether ownership should be investing in capital expenditures at this point, at the dearth of investing in labor. Using an “ideal” and “realistic” labor revenue allocation, as well as scenarios in which the forthcoming MLB Advanced Media payment and 2016-2017 profits are redistributed to payroll (either through debt or cash), here is the estimated “payroll ceiling” for the Brewers over the next five years:

Assessing guaranteed contracts alone, and averaging the various revenue scenarios, here’s one likely payroll space estimation for the Brewers:

This team is absolutely swimming in cash, and thanks to the relatively swift and severe rebuilding efforts by Doug Melvin and David Stearns, the club owes almost nothing in guaranteed contracts. Signing two elite free agents in this offseason, even to five year deals, will still allow the Brewers to meet these upcoming arbitration requirements by impact players (with tougher questions for players like Corey Knebel and Jimmy Nelson, who will be deep into arbitration):

Of course, even grouping these players together is not necessarily an adequate way to express the club’s actual future arbitration demands. For example, in 2021, if Domingo Santana, Lewis Brinson, and Brett Phillips are each in arbitration, Santana will be likely entering his final year of arbitration, while Phillips and Brinson will likely be entering their first years. Yet, if each of these players demopnstrate an ability to start at the MLB level, it will be interesting to see whether Milwaukee maintains their extremely deep outfield with this trio and Ryan Braun, or trades from this depth (which would free up more actual revenue for payroll).

The long and short of it is, the Brewers are a club with fantastic revenue trends, current profit potential, payroll space, and current and future contract demands. Should the club wish to take advantage of this slow free agency market, they absolutely have the resources and future outlook to make such a spending spree possible and worthwhile.

According to Cot’s Contracts, the Milwaukee Brewers finished with the cheapest 40-man roster salary for the second straight year in 2017, with a meager $78.8 million spread across the roster. The team has all of $25 million committed beyond 2018, invested in only two contracts: Ryan Braun’s and Eric Thames’s. The Brewers have a team that was a surprise contender in 2017 with all of the major pieces coming back in 2018, aside from the injured Jimmy Nelson, and they could be getting an impact player if Lewis Brinson can take the next step. From 2008 through 2014, the Brewers ranked no worse than 18th in final 40-man year end salary. Mark Attanasio’s pocketbook has been able to take the strain in the past, and it should be able to take another big contract or two this year as well.

Thanks to the anti-competitive behavior (my fancy word for “collusion” that may not be technically against the rules) we’re seeing in the free agent market, there is some talent remaining unsigned, sitting there for the taking without requiring the Brewers to cash in any of their precious minor league assets. Of ESPN’s top 20 free agents this offseason, 13 remain unsigned. Of particular interest to the Brewers are the pitchers; Jake Arrieta or Alex Cobb would be major upgrades over the likes of Junior Guerra or Brent Suter in Milwaukee’s rotation.

The current market suggests there might be bargains, too. Not a single player has received a deal longer than three years or pricier than $60 million. Addison Reed signed this past week with the Twins for just $17 million over two years, well below what many expected for a reliever entering the market as one of the better closer candidates available. Not only is the market looking shockingly cool, but as spring training approaches, players will want to avoid becoming the Kyle Lohse of 2013, who went unsigned deep into March and wound up making about 60 percent of even the lowest estimates of what he could earn.

This is where the Brewers need to pounce. Anti-competitive behavior like this could wind up helping teams with smaller budgets. A reduction of super-long free agent deals worth nine figures has almost no impact on the way the Brewers assemble their squad. The Brewers were never going to make those deals anyway, and their biggest contracts will almost always be handed out to homegrown superstars. Milwaukee’s free agent splashes have generally come on players entering the decline phases of their career. But if free agent prices come down across the board, the Brewers should be able to be active players for more and more players, players who would otherwise receive prohibitively expensive offers from large-market clubs for the Brewers to even consider them as a target.

Consider the New York Yankees of the 1980s. Steinbrenner pulled the Yankees up from years of mediocrity by investing heavily in free agents. His club won four pennants in six years from 1976 through 1981, not coincidentally the first few years of free agency. But in 1982, they dipped to fifth place, and the Yankees wouldn’t reach the postseason again until 1995, the first season after the strike.

In his autobiography A Whole New Ball Game, Marvin Miller discussed how Steinbrenner’s willingness to play into his fellow owners’ collusion scheme was an act of cutting off the nose to spite the face:

“Steinbrenner’s unwillingness or inability to recognize opposition to him first became apparent to me with the beginning of the owners’ collusion in 1985. Although he was the first to utilize free agents, and the most successful in building winning teams, he became a coconspirator by depriving his club of the opportunity to sign free agents. I was astonished at the time because it was so obvious that he was the principle target (along with the players) of the owners’ planned collusion, but apparently this thought had not occurred to him. Ted Turner, Gene Autry, and a few others were also targets, but George was the owner they most wanted to curb. Yet he seemed incapable of understanding that a club like the Yankees — one with no success (or talent) in building a team through effective trading, and without a record of effective player recruitment and development in the minors for some time — would certainly fall out of contention if it could not sign free agents. But he agreed and joined with his ‘brother’ owners in a scheme aimed at himself.”

I don’t know if there is active collusion going on in today’s MLB, but there’s no doubt that large market teams are currently choosing not to leverage their financial muscle, their single greatest team-building asset. If the Brewers can, they need to capitalize on this opening. It’s hard to imagine another time when their money can do more, especially when you consider just how close this Brewers team came to the postseason in 2017.

The Yankees could have been a dynasty throughout the 1980s, but Steinbrenner’s inability to get over the idea that free agents were taking him for a ride cost him a decade’s worth of winning. If teams like the Yankees, Dodgers, and Cubs want to make that same mistake here in 2018, let them. Let them wring their hands about long-term deals and the luxury tax like suckers. If the Brewers want to shock the baseball world and make it back to the postseason,  they need to take advantage of this opening and strike now.

Photo Credit: Jim Young, USA Today Sports Images

The question is where the Brewers’ front office will decide to spend that money. There is speculation the team will go big and throw a large chunk of their resources toward a Jake Arrieta/Yu Darvish type to bolster their starting rotation. Adam McCalvy, MLB.coms Brewers beat writer, quoted Stearns saying “it makes sense to cast a wide net,” when referring to whether the team would spend big on a starting pitcher or not.

It would be a huge mistake to go all in on an expensive, aging starting pitcher. The Brewers’ entire rebuild model through savvy trades and bargain-bin free agent pick-ups would be disrupted. Not only would a high-profile free agent signing severely hold the Brewers back as far as financials go, it would create fewer opportunities for their excellent collections of prospects to find time in the big leagues.

A look at the two high-profile free agents with the most chatter linking them to the Brewers, Arrieta and Darvish, shows that although the two’s well-known names suggest ace-level production, they both have their flaws.

In Arrieta’s case, he wasn’t a great pitcher last year. He was worth just 2.5 wins above replacement player (WARP), along with a Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) and Deserved Runs Average (DRA) above 4.00. Arrieta was plagued by the long-ball and had a walks-per-9-innings rate near 3.0. 2017 was easily his worst full season since joining the Chicago Cubs, and the righty is also an older free agent due to his late start in the big leagues. He will turn 32 in Spring Training. Arrieta is expected to garner somewhere in the range of 100 million dollars over four or five years. The Brewers cannot afford to pay for the age 34, 35, or 36 seasons of a pitcher who was not even worth three WARP in his age 31 season.

Darvish had much more success in 2017, but he presumably comes with a higher price tag and more injury risk. He just threw over 150 innings for the first time since 2013. He has thrown over 200 innings only once in his career. Darvish is expected to garner at least 120-130 million dollars over five, six, or possibly seven seasons. All the Brewers’ eggs would likely be in the Darvish basket due to the large price tag.

Not only are both of these big-name starting pitchers almost as risky as they come, they don’t fit into the Brewers rebuild timeline. As of now, the team’s five-year outlook is rosy. Some prospects, Lewis Brinson in particular, have been slow in their promotion to the big leagues, but their farm system remains one of the best and deepest in baseball. Most of the major league club’s core is in their twenties. Draining all of their resources on a 30+ year-old starting pitcher moves their window up. Instead of building a long-term winner, they are gambling on the next few years.

The Brewers rotation wasn’t exactly a weak spot in 2017. Jimmy Nelson emerged as a Cy Young candidate until a shoulder injury ended his season. He is expected to miss significant time in 2018, but the Brewers have the starters to pick up most of the slack. Zach Davies, who has yet to turn 25, enjoyed the best season of his career at 3.4 WARP. Chase Anderson had his big breakthrough, posting 2.4 WARP in less than 150 innings. Brent Suter, who could be expected to open the season in the Brewers rotation, posted a 3.45 earned run average in 70 1/3 innings as a starter. As soon as Nelson returns from injury, one can squint and see the makings of a playoff caliber rotation.

David Stearns needs to spread the team’s resources. The team lacks any glaring holes; instead they need mild improvements across the board. Their rotation could use another middle-of-the-rotation piece such as C.C. Sabathia, Jhoulys Chacin, or Tyler Chatwood. They need more depth in the bullpen. There is no Aroldis Chapman, Kenley Jansen, or Mark Melancon in this free agent class, but there is an abundance of set-up reliever type assets. Addison Reed, Mike Minor, or Brandon Morrow could bolster the Brewers bullpen and ease the burden on the starting rotation at the same time. Two or three smaller moves such as these will lower risk while strengthening several areas of the roster rather than just one.

As much as Brewers fans want to see that big splash, it would be wise to stay away from the big-money signing and go the conservative route. This is not the offseason to be spending big. It seems as though the Brewers front office has no choice but to spend in order to build off the 2017 season, but the hunk of change gamble is not the way to go.

Photo Credit: Gary A. Vasquez, USAToday Sports Images

Recently, my surplus analysis of the Brewers roster affirmed the relatively well-known fact that Catcher, Right-Handed Pitcher, and Second Base are the greatest positions of need for Milwaukee in 2018.

Extrapolating those needs:

• While Manny Pina performed quite well, the Brewers could use stronger back-up support. It is not clear whether Stephen Vogt, Andrew Susac, or Jett Bandy have profiles that are suitable for high-end back-up to help the Brewers contend. This is prior to considering any concerns in approach or mechanics that suggest Pina will not be able to continue performing at his 2017 level.

• Waiver trade deadline acquisition Neil Walker delivered solid production down the stretch for the Brewers, and arguably should be a clear target in free agency given the lack of any immediate prospect that flashes a strong starting second baseman role in the advanced minors. Walker will not block any prospects, and his ability to play at multiple infield positions will help the Brewers execute their “Team Depth” strategy.

• Finally, right-handed pitching will take hits due to injury (Jimmy Nelson), free agency (Matt Garza and Anthony Swarzak), uncertain prospect production / development projects at MLB level (Brandon Woodruff, followed by Corbin Burnes and company), and arguably role depreciation as well (everyone from Junior Guerra to Jorge Lopez to Aaron Wilkerson could fit this description). It should not be outlandish to suggest that the Brewers could easily use two-to-three additional starting pitching options in order to withstand April-through-July and the battle of attrition that is the 162 grind.

This post will outline a set of topics for free agency analysis, but first it is worth looking at the three-year depreciated surplus figures for the Top 25 free agents among pitchers and batters. The following tables include:

• Raw 2017 Three-Year Depreciated Surplus (treated without contract, as though the player was a 2016-2017 free agent).

• Raw 2018 Three-Year Depreciated Surplus (once again, treated without contract, with every player on a three-year scale for ease of comparison).

• The difference between 2018 and 2017 depreciated surplus, which should read like “role depreciation,” or “role trend,” to suggest whether the player is largely trending upward or downward.

• These figures are drawn from Baseball Prospectus WARP, knocked down to 70 percent to imitate production regression of aging and injury (etc.), and placed on the “market rate” WARP schedule of approximately $7 million per one WARP.

• Additionally, players that have options or opt-outs were not included in this search in order to present a uniform class of players and avoid complicated contractual assumptions.

First, the best bats:

Now, following the same table structure, a look at the 2018 pitching free agents:

Future Topics:
From this basis, much analysis should follow, as the surplus figures are highly abstract and obviously not tethered to the reality of negotiating contracts that could span anywhere from one-year (perhaps for someone like Cameron Maybin) to seven-years (for someone like Yu Darvish). Obviously, specific statistical, mechanical, age, injury, and other considerations will come into play in the actual market, as well. More detailed analysis on these areas will follow. However, for now, it is worth drawing some big picture conclusions about the class:

• Should someone wish to gamble on injury recovery risk, pitchers from Alex Cobb to Michael Pineda, or even Yu Darvish, could provide significant surplus (yes, Darvish could provide surplus value to a club even with a huge contract). Obviously, these cases will require particular attention to detail in terms of mechanics, injury type or severity, and other medical or recovery-related factors.

• The supposed lack of star power among position players could provide a feast for the right front office mentalities: players from Eric Hosmer to Neil Walker to reclamation projects like Carlos Gomez, Jonathan Lucroy, or Carlos Gonzalez could deliver plentiful returns to front offices with a sharp eye to mechanics, strike zone approach, and other related factors.

• An amazing bench (or set of depth role players) could emerge from this class, lead by someone like Jarrod Dyson (a fantastic glove-first centerfielder). Even the Brewers, with their noted glut of outfielders, could arguably find room to upgrade depth roles with a player like Dyson (who offers more certain defense and a rather disciplined-if-unspectacular plate approach compared to someone like Keon Broxton off the bench).

• Moreover, who will be the next Chase Anderson? Or rather, how will the Brewers front office learn from their coaching and arsenal approach successes with the veteran? My vote in this regard is for the unheralded Jeremy Hellickson, who you last heard about in the ridiculed 2017 deadline trade involving the Phillies and Orioles. Yet although Hellickson followed up his strong 2016 campaign with some troubles in 2017, his arsenal and mechanics maintain the basic form of their 2016 foundation. Additionally, the righty works with the much-familar sinker-cutter-curve-change approach that the Brewers have worked with (see Davies, Zach, as well as Anderson).

While all the hype will justifiably go to guys like Jake Arrieta and Yu Darvish, the 2017 Brewers pitching success proved that arms can indeed succeed by being placed within a particular system that uses the proper individualized approach to each pitcher’s needs (Derek Johnson’s chameleon coaching style is oft-praised for this characteristic). For this reason, a raw mechanical project like Arrieta could succeed in Milwaukee, but given the cost comparisons and serviceable depth options available, this is a perfect offseason for Stearns and the front office to gamble on pitching acquisitions that fit a particular mold suitable to the organization. Since Milwaukee will face market constraints throughout their contending years, learning how to repeatedly find the next Chase Anderson will arguably be as important as learning when to jump at an elite contract.

The Brewers can indeed contend in 2018 while continuing to develop players at the MLB level, but they will be required to do so with the most….interesting roster in the division (as opposed to the one with the most starpower). In this regard, perhaps a consistent head-scratcher like the 2012-2016 Orioles is a better model for replication and discussion than the popular Cubs, Pirates, or Astros building models.

Photo Credit: Jeff Hanisch, USA Today Sports Images

There were quite a few examples of this strategy at the time, but Chris Carter, Will Middlebrooks, and Garin Cecchini were most obvious. Each had been a top prospect but had failed to live to up the hype, and they were generally deemed failures prior to this season. The Brewers, though, were able to offer each a chance to prove they belonged—with the upside for the organization being that a successful season by any one of these players would give the club an unexpected asset.

Middlebrooks and Cecchini have flopped. Aaron Hill has gotten the majority of the playing time at third base thus far, but he is just a short-term option as the Brewers have to be hoping that he plays well enough to be trade bait come July. However, neither Middlebrooks nor Cecchini is exactly beating down the door. Middlebrooks has somehow posted just a .495 OPS despite playing in the hitter-friendly AAA Pacific Coast League, while Cecchini’s .715 OPS is better but still not very good given the context.

Carter, though, has been a revelation through the first month of the season. He has posted a .336 TAv through 24 games, which would clearly be the best mark of his career. This is partially buoyed by his .277 batting average, which itself is being held aloft by a .314 BABIP and is outpacing both his scouting report and his career mark. Even when that number likely comes down simply due to regression to the mean, Carter is posting career-high power numbers and a strikeout rate that is down about four percentage points from his career mark.

If Carter can retain even a portion of this improvement, he will be a valuable big league player. His career .282 TAv establishes him as an above-average hitter who isn’t worth the pain his glove brings, but a TAv at or around .300 would likely make him appealing as a passable starter at first base or as a DH option for AL teams.

While the clear best-case scenario for the Brewers for someone like Carter is that they turn into a superstar, that is obviously unlikely and generally a pie-in-the-sky hope anyway. The most likely ideal outcome is that he becomes good enough to trade for a decent return; however, because he has two years of arbitration control left, the Brewers can afford to be patient and wait for the best deal possible even if it takes until next winter (or later).

If Carter didn’t work out in the same way that Cecchini and Middlebrooks appear to not have, the Brewers would only be out $2.5 million. If he becomes trade-worthy, though, they will have been able to spend that $2.5 million to acquire a prospect package that they simply would not otherwise have had access to.

Chris Carter—or his eventual trade return—is not going to win you a division title. But continually making moves like this during rebuilding years—which the Brewers clearly are attempting to do—is a low-risk way of improving your system depth and building from within. It is this pattern of moves that defines the Brewers rebuild to this point and differentiates it from what the Astros did. The Brewers are not trying to lose as many games as possible; instead, they are gathering assets and waiting, similar in fact to what the Cubs did. The Cubs, in fact, are an excellent model for what the Brewers will be hoping to do; similar to how the Cubs were able to flip a couple journeymen into Jake Arrieta, the Brewers will be trying to buy low on post-hype prospect types and see if anything sticks. And so while Carter is almost certainly not going to be the lynchpin of a rebuild and the club’s best player, the Brewers will be hoping that they can mix enough metaphors to turn a few shots in the dark into some diamonds in the rough.

It’s obviously too early to say whether this process will work. However, the mere existence of any plan at all is encouraging, and the fact that the Brewers seem to be getting a positive outcome already is certainly a first step. The club will have a decision to make in the coming months about what sort of return to hold out for with a potential Carter trade, but the fact that any return at all is possible is a step up from where the Brewers were at the beginning of the offseason.

RECAP: Due to poor pitching, fielding, and hitting in key spots, the Cubs trounced the Brewers 7 to 2. Taylor Jungmann was roughed up again as his nightmare 2016 campaign continues to tumble into darkness. He failed to reach the fifth inning for the third time in five starts, walking three and allowing five runs in 3.2 innings to stake Jake Arrieta to a big, early lead. Jungmann’s ERA now sits at 9.15, the worst ERA in baseball among qualified pitchers not named De La Rosa. There’s not much to take away from this game, folks. Arrieta is one of the league’s best pitchers, and Jungmann is one of the worst. Milwaukee failed in all three facets of the game, failing to mount more than a couple of offensive threats, walking 11 Cubs and adding a couple of botched double plays that won’t show up in the stat sheet to their pair of errors. The results were as ugly as they were inevitable.

WORST PLAY (WPA):
Taylor Jungmann who was sporting an 8.47 ERA going into this game was facing off against Jake Arrieta and the Cubs lineup. You can probably imagine how the rest of the game went. Not very well!

But, the Brewers had an early chance to score. Arrieta was coming off his second career no-hitter and was on seven day’s rest. The Brewers looked to take advantage of this. Villar led off the game with a fluky broken bat bloop single. After Alex Presley flied out, Ryan Braun and Jonathan Lucroy were able to work a pair of walks to load the bases with only one out. If the Brewers were going to put up a big number, this was their chance. Chris Carter, however, was the next batter, and if we know one thing about Carter, it’s that he strikes out a lot. This year has been no exception as he’s striking out 27.6% of the time. Carter also has a lot of power, so we know he can hit the ball, the problem is that a strike out here would be a big problem as it would dramatically decrease the Brewers chance of getting on the board.

If you watched this game, you probably know what’s coming next. Carter worked a two-two count and then struck out swinging on a fastball up and in making it two outs with the bases loaded. Nieuwenhuis was the next batter, and he also struck out putting an end to the frame and killing the Brewers chance of getting on the board early.

TOP PLAY (WPA):
Having been told throughout the week that his counterpart in Thursday’s game is among the game’s best pitchers, Jungmann resolved to emulate the Cubs’ ace to the letter. Therefore when Arrieta loaded the bases in the top of the first, Jungmann did the same in the bottom of the frame

COUNSELL: okay taylor just watch arrieta and do what he does
JUNGMANN: you got it coach *loads bases*
COUNSELL: wait

— penguins fan travy (@travis_mke) April 28, 2016

Dexter Fowler singled to center field to lead off the inning. After Jungmann got Jason Heyward to fly out to the catcher, he hit Kris Bryant with the first pitch of the at-bat and then walked Anthony Rizzo. Basically, Jungmann and Arrieta had very similar starts to the game. The biggest difference is that, well, one of them is Taylor Jungmann, a man whose ERA instills fear in the eyes of his infielders. The other is Jake Arrieta, a man so good at pitching it’s got Stephen A Smith thinking he must be on something. (Obviously there’s no evidence to suggest Smith’s claim is true).

So, after Jungmann loaded the bases with one man out, Ben Zobrist came to the dish. And, as you would expect, Zobrist worked the count to two-two. But, just when you thought Jungmann was actually going to imitate Arrieta, Zobrist singled on a ground ball to right field, scoring two runs.

BREWERS BEST (WPA):
One would think Alex Presley’s clutch two-out, RBI double (+.034 WPA) which scored Milwaukee’s first run would reside here but with the score already 5-0, the calculators weren’t all that impressed. Instead the game’s top play came in the top of the first inning, and it didn’t involve the hitter at all. With Jonathan Lucroy at the plate Jonathan Villar, who had previously swiped second before a Ryan Braun walk, took off again and beat the throw to third from David Ross while Braun took the second behind him. The double steal (+.049) gave the Brewers two runners in scoring position with just one out. We’ll pick up the rest of this inning in a moment, so just pop that in your brain pocket and keep it handy for later.

KEY MOMENT:
In the top of the first, Jake Arrieta took the mound. That’s it. That’s the key moment.

Okay, okay. But really, in the top of the first, Milwaukee loaded the bases with one out when Jonathan Lucroy walked following the aforementioned double steal by Villar and Braun (you’ll wanna pull that whole situation back out of your brain pocket now, thanks). It was the first time this season Arrieta had loaded the bases and with an opportunity to put up a run in the first inning against him for the first time since last May, the Brewers simply had to put the ball in play. Enter Chris Carter, one of the game’s premier three true outcomes hitters (47 percent of his plate appearances have ended in a walk, strikeout or home run this season). Carter was no match for Arrieta and he struck out swinging, a feat he repeated twice more before breaking up the monotony with a double play grounder in the eighth. Kirk Nieuwenhuis followed him with a strikeout of his own, and the threat was extinguished with no damage. The long inning did force Arrieta out of the game in the fifth after throwing 92 pitches, but the Brewers pitchers weren’t able to keep Chicago’s bats in check to make an early exit by Arrieta meaningful.

Carter’s first inning at bat gave him another STAT (Stuff That Angers Travis) for the season: a strikeout with a runner on third and less than two outs. The Brewers are among the league’s worst at plating runs in that situation: they rank 21st in the league, scoring just 48% of the time. That’s partly a function of their penchant for strikeouts: Milwaukee is punched out at a 22% clip in those situations.

TREND TO WATCH:
(1) Jungmann had a great start to his major league career. In his first month with the Brewers, he had a 2.79 ERA. In his second month, Jungmann was able to top that with a 1.77 ERA. This got a lot of people excited. Jungmann wasn’t a highly touted prospect but he was showing early on that he could handle his own in the big leagues.

This was a much needed sign for the Brewers, their pitching over the last few years has been sub par. Plus, with the debacles of Matt Garza and Kyle Lohse last season, it was nice to see one gleam of hope in the starting rotation. Alas, in September/October, Jungmann struggled and posted a 7.85 ERA.

With that said, Jungmann still had a pretty good season finishing with a 3.77 ERA. His underlying numbers also weren’t suggesting that he got very lucky. His BABIP was at .290, his LOB% was at 72 percent which is literally league average, his HR/FB ratio was at 9.9 percent, which again is league average. Plus, it’s not like his pitches were getting crushed, A) as the BABIP would show and B) his Exit Velocity against was 87.8 MPH.

This season, however, has been a disaster thus far. Including this game, Jungmann is sporting a 9.15 ERA. Yup, Jungmann found a way to increase an ERA that was above 8. Just when you thought things couldn’t get any worse, they did.

But, some of Jungmann’s stats suggest that he has been the recipient of bad luck.

This may suggest that he’s been unlucky, which with a 9 ERA one would assume so. This, however, doesn’t mean that Jungmann will find his 2015 form. The most concerning part about Jungmann’s 2016 performance, thus far, is his drop in fastball velocity. Last year, his fastball averaged 91.9 mph and this year it’s dropped down to 89.8. Now, a 2.1 mph may not seem like a lot, but a 2 mph drop in velocity is huge. Especially for someone as young as Jungmann.

This year, he’s also walking hitter’s more often and striking out fewer batters. Hitters are hitting the ball harder off of him, they’re making more contact on his pitches, and there swinging and missing less at his pitches. A big part of that is due to his drop in velocity. If the rise in pitcher’s velocity has taught us one thing, it’s that velocity matters a great deal.

This may also mean that Jungmann is battling through some injuries, which is another element to keep an eye on.

(2) With the majority of Milwaukee’s starting pitching struggling so mightily to record outs, the bullpen has been heavily taxed this season, ranking 8th in the league in innings pitched. What was supposed to be a strength for the team this season has turned into an absolute train wreck. The bullpen’s 5.00+ ERA is the fourth highest in the league, and has led to the team’s propensity for blowouts as opponents have been able to continuously tack on insurance runs against the Brewers’ overmatched relievers – more than half of Milwaukee’s 13 losses have been by five or more runs. Injuries have decimated the relief corps: Will Smith, Corey Knebel, Zack Jones and Sean Nolin, all expected to be a part of Milwaukee’s Opening Day roster, are on the Disabled List with significant injuries. Their replacements have not stepped up: Sam Freeman (12.91 ERA, 20.5 percent BB rate) has been atrocious, and he gave up another four walks in two innings of work Thursday; Capuano has benefited from an inflated 89.9 percent strand rate to keep his ERA under five despite a lofty 16.1 percent walk rate of his own, and Carlos Torres has been largely ineffective, though did manage to work around a walk and a hit to record a scoreless inning Thursday. Overall the bullpen is walking opposing batters at an ugly 12 percent rate, a number that got a big bump after Thursday’s eight walk day. With none of the injured pitchers close to a return, the Brewers need some of these pitchers to get things back under control.

UP NEXT: The schedule makers played rough and unclean with the Brewers in April: of their nine series so far (the home-and-home with Minnesota is one series, don’t kid yourself), four have come against 2015 playoff teams, with a fifth against even-year virtuosos San Francisco. After a pair of losses to the Cubs, the Brewers will be happy to go back home to Miller Park. They’ll be in action again tomorrow, this time facing the Miami Marlins. Zach Davies will be the starter for the Brewers, and he’ll be looking to improve on his early season struggles.

The Brewers bats will go against Adam Conley who’s also experienced some early struggles in 2016 giving up 11 runs in 19.1 innings pitched, which is good for a 5.12 ERA. This could be a good opportunity for the Brewers to do some damage with the bats and get a nice win on the board. Milwaukee lucks out by avoiding Jose Fernandez: after Conley, Wei-Yin Chen and Tom Koehler this weekend for the fins. Zach Davies (9.72 ERA) will try again to get back on track on Friday, Chase Anderson (4.50 ERA) goes for the Brewers on Saturday, and Wily Peralta (7.40 ERA) will try to make it back-to-back quality starts on Ryan Braun bobblehead day Sunday.