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Bandy-Maldonado

Here, following the offseason treatment, I am including major deals from July 2015 (the arguable start of “Rebuilding”) through the present day, meaning that these moves are not entirely Stearns’s trades. Indeed, the Zach Davies / Gerardo Parra trade and the Carlos Gomez & Mike Fiers return remain two reasons that the Brewers did not need to “tank” and design a “scorched earth” rebuild that completely reconstructed the organization. Coupled with draft signings by the late Bruce Seid (such as Jacob Barnes and [soon] Brandon Woodruff), as well as graduated top prospects like Orlando Arcia, and superstar Ryan Braun, the “rebuilding” Brewers have remained competitive due to several different talent streams entering, remaining, and graduating through the system.

Trade Surplus Depreciated WARP & OFP Summary:

As a reminder, I will be following the historical model of Overall Future Potential (OFP) production drawn from the history of MLB performances. Scaled for prospect risk, here’s how those prospect levels can be valuated, with 50 OFP being an “average” MLB player:

Last check-in, here’s how the Brewers’ trades looked. Given Zach Davies’s quick ascent to the MLB, I forgot to add him in this list, so his trade will be featured below.

Following this set of deals, it should be interesting to note that while the Brewers system prospects have had ups and downs, the players traded away have exhibited true depreciation within one year. This should demonstrate one benefit of using a depreciation model to assess future player value, which is the model I have been working with throughout the offseason; players do depreciate in terms of production. Jonathan Lucroy, Jeremy Jeffress, Gerardo Parra, Carlos Gomez, Mike Fiers, Adam Lind, and Jason Rogers all demonstrate this, and it should be noted they demonstrate this without completely crashing their value in the meantime (especially in the case of Lucroy). Khris Davis is perhaps the worst counterexample, as Stearns almost certainly sold low on the slugger, who also deserves credit for making adjustments and shifting his approach in Oakland.

A few quick notes:

• The Lucroy-Jeffress and Gomez-Fiers deals shifted value for completely different reasons. The former relies fully (thus far) on problematic performances by the players the Brewers traded away, while the latter is improving in value both due to struggles by Gomez and Fiers and improvements by Domingo Santana. The Gomez-Fiers deal remains one of the strongest deals to build the Brewers system, even with Josh Hader’s recent struggles, and Brett Phillips’s graduation solidifies at least the 45 OFP grade (which is not nothing), while the ceiling remains to be seen.

• Hidden in the middle of this table is the Francisco Rodriguez trade, which was one of Stearns’s worst trades on the day it occurred. But thankfully, trades are not solely graded on the day-of, and post hoc analysis loves Manny Pina’s development into (at least) a split time catcher at the MLB level. K-Rod has not been terrible, for what it’s worth, but when that contract winds down to its last year the surplus value really depends on short-term production rather than longterm outlook. This hurts the K-Rod score as much as it hurts Lucroy’s assessment in Texas.

• Let it be stated that the Khris Davis trade return was solid (if not spectacular) on the day-of. But it’s great to be reminded that prospect stock can depreciate, too. Fortunately, scouting reports suggest that Jacob Nottingham can remain behind the plate, answering one previous question. But if that power (and bat) does not come around, it may not matter as much; it is getting more appropriate to highlight, say, the 40-45 end of Nottingham’s grade (still means he reaches the MLB) than the 55 end that helped him reach Oakland’s Top 10. Of course, remember that Manny Pina was probably a 40-45 grade minor leaguer when Milwaukee acquired him, so…you know the rest.

• I believe there could be some reason to reassess prospects like Freddy Peralta or Ryan Cordell, who I would rate as valuable depth options for the system. However, for the purposes of this exercise, there is not necessarily enough non-statistical information to fully develop a new scouting grade. So perhaps a few prospects in this table deserve an asterisk next to their grade.

Turning from the “earlier” trades to the 2017 offseason, one can see how Stearns developed the surprising 2017 contender. It is interesting to note that for the offseason coverage of the club, so many of us (myself included) completely failed to properly price the GM’s immediate value for these trades.

For example, Mauricio Dubon was never (and probably will not be) the prime value of the Thornburg deal. What makes the Thornburg deal so amazing is that, given Thornburg’s career development, a straight-up Dubon-for-Thornburg deal would have been solid. Yet, Stearns did not stop there; the GM managed to return not just Dubon, but also a legitimate MLB asset in Travis Shaw, as well as two total lottery tickets (exemplified in Yusion Coca, the Player-To-Be-Named-Later who completed this deal). This trade should continue to “give” to the organization, whether it is in the form of Josh Pennington or Coco being included in a future trade (they are sufficiently far from the MLB to be traded once more), or Dubon working in a utility role or second-tier MLB starting role.

A quick word: These numbers are indeed abstract! The Brewers claim approximately $472.2 million in depreciated surplus value from these trades, which roughly translates to 67 WARP (Wins Above Replacement Player) within the system. These 67 WARP could be maximized and turned into 87 market-rate WARP, they could remain steady over time, or they could further depreciate to 49 WARP. These figures are abstract, of course, because they incorporate risk into the system, and can be cashed out any which way; if Stearns cashes out 87 WARP within the next two years, the Brewers will have quite a competitive team; if these players remain merely competitive or decline further, it will be questioned whether more trades were necessary. The players could continue to depreciate, and many could fail to reach the MLB (if they are prospects). Stearns can cash out surplus through trades or development. So these numbers should not necessarily be interpreted to apply to any timeframe; that’s up to the GM to determine.

Since I’ve already focused specifically on the Jett Bandy-Martin Maldonado deal recently, I will not dive deeper into that deal except to emphasize the importance of post hoc trade analysis. Returning to a trade after the fact, with the proper tools, is not simply “using hindsight,” but rather healthy Benefit-Cost Analysis. Moreover, returning to a trade after the fact, with the proper tools, is an opportunity to potentially sharpen those analytical tools in order to provide better day-of trade analysis. But of course, the Bandy trade is not yet complete, nor are most of these deals, really. So, by returning to these trades with analytical methods over time, one can come to understand organizational value as a malleable entity that is never truly solidified at one point in time. This is arguably yet another reason to oppose “rebuilding,” or to opposing “winning now,” or any extreme organizational strategy; it is also possible to never build an organization, or to build an organization through contrarian means (as Stearns is doing). There should be no reason for an MLB club to fail to simultaneously build for the present and future, save for a lack of creativity.

Disciples of Uecker || Top 50 Prospects: Advanced Arms (Dec. 15, 2015)

Nicholas Zettel (@SpectiveWax), a frequent flier around these parts, brings us the scouting reports for some of the deeper cuts on the Brewers top pitching prospects list in the high minors. Of particular note is Josh Hader, who was really turned heads after being acquired from Houston in the Carlos Gomez/Mike Fiers trade in July. The southpaw had a 2.79 ERA after moving to the Brewers’ organization, striking out 32.9 percent of the batters he faced. He particularly shined at the Arizona Fall League, allowing just a single run in 16 innings, and he could turn out to be quite the steal for Milwaukee.

MLB Daily Dish || Brewers owner Mark Attanasio writes open letter to fans  (Dec. 17, 2015)

Our own Michael Bradburn (@MWBII), here writing with SB Nation’s MLB Daily Dish, talks a bit about the open letter Mark Attanasio wrote Brewers fans this week. Of interest is Attanasio publicly acknowledging the rebuild, something that I don’t believe he’s done previously and is generally not done by teams, especially owners. There has always been a sense among the Brewers blogoshpere that Attanasio would be unwilling to endure a full rebuild, which might hamper his new general manager’s attempts to steer the ballclub in his chosen direction. At least for the time being, however, it appears that David Stearns has full control of the ship.

Wisconsin Timber Rattlers || Frosty Microbrews: A lot of baseball in Erickson’s life (Dec. 16, 2015)

Now writing with the Brewers’ Low-A affiliate’s official website, Kyle Lobner (@BrewFrostyMug) delivers the final piece in a four-part series about the past and future Timber Rattlers who participated in the Instructional League camp this fall. This one focuses on T-Rats manager Matt Erickson, who has been Wisconsin’s manager for five years. Players covered in the series include intriguing prospects Trent Clark, Jake Gatewood and Malik Collymore. Links to those additional pieces can be found within Kyle’s piece linked to above.

Brew Crew Ball || Brewers Free Agent Targets: Justin Morneau (Dec. 17, 2015)

Myself and the rest of Brew Crew Ball have been covering a multitude of veteran first-base options, an area of need that Stearns has specifically addressed. Now, in the wake of the surprising trade of Rogers, it seems a near certainty that the Brewers will make a move to sign someone to cover first base. The idea of Will Middlebrooks playing 140 games at first isn’t overly appetizing, after all. With the club having seemingly abandoned the tried-and-false “just stick bad shortstops over there” technique, Kyle Lesniewski (@brewerfan28) explored a very interesting option this week in former Twin, Pirate, and Rockie Justin Morneau. The soon-to-be 35-year-old, who has had major struggles staying on the field the past couple of seasons, could present the Brewers with the biggest high-risk, high-reward option.

*****

The mark of a successful general manager is often executing the necessary moves with aplomb. Trade near free agents for prospects. Sign bounce-back candidates on minor-league deals. Throw money at the occasional top-end free agent when amidst one’s competitive window. Cobble together a package of prospects to acquire an impact rental at the July trade deadline. If a Major League GM hits paydirt on enough of these types of moves, he or she will almost assuredly boast a respectable career. If he or she can string a few together in succession, the big-league club may claim a pennant or two.

I wrote in October that David Stearns needs to be special to build a consistent winner in Milwaukee. More loosely, he needs to be the Next Big Thing in baseball. I wrote:

The challenge for Stearns and Arnold, though, isn’t going to be whether the club can emulate successful rebuilds like the one in Houston or the one in Chicago. The real difference maker in Milwaukee will be discovering the next competitive advantage that no one has exploited, the next market inefficiency, if you will. Simply using mountains data on framing, spin rates, defensive efficiency, and the like to drive coaching methods and roster decisions won’t be enough. Houston is doing that. Los Angeles, Boston, and Chicago are doing that. The Brewers must catch up in this area, sure, but the organization must employ something new. Because all things being equal, if the Brewers simply catch up and start doing what the successful organizations are doing, the organization’s small-market status will always keep them from reaching the levels they hope to achieve. All things being equal, the four clubs mentioned above (among others) will always be able to outspend Milwaukee. That will always be the competitive advantage that trumps all when everything else is equal.

With that said, I do not mean to insinuate that Stearns has unlocked some new market inefficiency by trading 27-year-old Jason Rogers to Pittsburgh for a pair of intriguing prospects. Rogers hit .296/.367/.441 in a brief Major League cameo in 2015 and has six control years remaining, but lacks the traditional power profile of a first baseman and may be functionally limited to a platoon role. That’s valuable to the Pirates in their current context. And given their extreme organizational depth in the outfield, their competitive window, and their pitcher-friendly home park, parting ways with Keon Broxton and Trey Supak won’t hurt the Pirates too much.

It’s not a groundbreaking trade by any means. However, this move remains notable — and perhaps encouraging — for two different reasons:

(1) David Stearns is showing a willingness to be creative with his roster construction. He’s not holding tight to cost-effective options with control years remaining while dealing away only aging veterans and upcoming free agents. Jason Rogers could’ve been perfectly productive for the Milwaukee Brewers over the next couple seasons and it would’ve been at the league minimum. There’s no chance that Doug Melvin makes this move for those two reasons and those two reasons alone. Stearns is willing to eschew financial prudence (likely moreso by signing a free agent to a multi-million-dollar deal rather than play Rogers at the league minimum) to acquire more young talent for the farm system. That kind of creativity and non-purse-clutching is crucial.

(2) David Stearns is prioritizing the rookie levels of the minors. Just over a week after trading Adam Lind for a trio of teenage pitchers, the new Brewers’ GM went back to the well and acquired Trey Supak, a 19-year-old hurler who hasn’t reached full-season ball. The Pirates drafted him in the second round of the 2014 Draft — meaning he’s coming to Milwaukee with some pedigree — and he has only thrown 52.1 innings in his professional career. The Brewers are clearly trying to bring the Houston Playbook to the Midwest, in which the club targets rookie-ball guys before they have a chance to breakout and see their value skyrocket. Houston accomplished this with Francis Martes and David Paulino in recent years and did so once again with Jonathan Arauz in the Ken Giles trade. Stearns is employing a similar strategy with his new club, too.

It’s encouraging to see the Brewers think outside the box. The first point above is undoubtedly good for the Brewers’ organization. Roster optimization breathes life into a small-market franchise. The second point, however, is a bit more controversial. The Astros seem brilliant because they unearthed a few gems that were mere afterthoughts in various trades. It’s a strategy that massively fails an organization if that club’s scouting department regularly misses on that young, volatile talent. So, in this way, if Stearns and the Brewers are going to cash in their big-league chips for teenage prospects, they’d better hit the nail on the head. Otherwise, it winds up being overly cute and a complete waste.

Numerous pundits have opined that Trey Supak is the key to this trade for the Brewers. He’s a 19-year-old hurler with a great frame and a fastball that can flash in the mid-90s. The curveball has promise, too. Supak posted a 6.67 ERA in eight starts for Bristol in the Appy League, but that’s grossly misleading due to the small sample size. The Texan never threw more than five innings in a game and had solid peripherals, including only five walks in those eight starts (and three of those game in a single outing). Stearns commented that the trio of teenage arms in the Lind trade were attractive because they already displayed an ability to work within the strike zone. I’m sure Supak’s four percent walk rate in 2015 impressed the Brewers’ scouting staff in a similar vein.

Center fielder Keon Broxton offers the speed/OBP combination that statheads adore. He compiled a .273/.357/.438 with 39 stolen bases between Double-A and Triple-A a season ago, and if one really wants to dream, Broxton could be a Jarrod Dyson type player with more power and swing-and-miss in his game. The latter piece has always kept scouts from believing in him at the Major League level. Kiley McDaniel, now with the Atlanta Braves organization, called him a “toolshed projection guy” (a great line) prior to 2015. His luster has dulled because he’s 25 years old; however, some in the industry were reportedly impressed with the Lakeland, Florida, native this past year. As the roster is currently constructed, he’ll step into spring training with arguably the best shot to be the Brewers’ everyday center fielder.

Ultimately, it’s difficult to overstate the amount of talent that’s flooding the Brewers’ farm system at the moment. And that’s with other possible trade targets — like Jonathan Lucroy, Jean Segura, and Khris Davis — still on the big-league roster. If David Stearns remains willing to wheel-and-deal this winter, I could easily see the Brewers comfortably having a top-five farm system in all of baseball, if not better. The Brewers’ new general manager has built a roster with flexibility and redundancy, and it’s clear that he’s willing to trade away controllable assets when getting adequate value in return.

They say that first impressions can be established in less than 30 seconds. I’m not sure how that converts to “baseball time,” but the initial impression given by David Stearns has been nothing but positive. He’s showing creativity and boldness. He’s putting his stamp on the organization, establishing a recognizable framework of doing business. I don’t think he’s separated himself from his previous employer, as he’s following the Astros’ playbook, but that’s not all together bad. It simply means Stearns will have to discover what makes him different, what makes him special, a bit farther down the road.

Or perhaps you’ve seen him do something like this:

Needless to say, Jason Rogers is having a great September. He has compiled a tremendous .488/.553/.707 slash line.

Before this month, though, if you’re not an avid Brewers fan, you may not have ever heard of Jason Rogers. That’s likely partially due to the fact that he was never considered a top prospect. He never made any of Baseball Prospectus’ team-level top-10 prospects lists for the Brewers.

Rogers was drafted, by the Brewers, in the 32nd round of the 2010 draft out of Columbus State University. He started his minor-league career at the age of 22 and slowly moved up the ranks. His minor-league numbers illustrate that he has hit well at just about every level. He was even called up last year to make his major-league debut at the age of 26. The young man only had a brief stint in the big leagues, though, only playing in eight games and only netting 10 plate appearances.

This year, Rogers made the major-league club right out of camp, and he has performed for the most part, although in a limited role. Many keen readers probably know this, but Rogers doesn’t profile as an everyday player. He has mostly filled in at first base, while seeing some time at third base and in left field. Mainly, though, Rogers is used for his bat, and he’s somewhat developed a reputation as being the team’s best pitch hitter. Whether that is true is certainly debatable, but what isn’t is that he’s been very effective out of that role, accumulating a 127 wRC+ off the bench. He has also received the most plate appearances as a pinch-hitter among all Brewers players. If it weren’t for that meddling Skip Schumaker, he would have the most pinch-hit appearances in all of baseball for 2015.

With that being said, it would be an understatement to limit Rogers’ accomplishments this year to his pinch-hitting. He did get demoted to Triple-A in July after having a rough June, but after crushing it in Colorado Springs, he got called back up to the majors on August 7. On the whole, Rogers has been one of the Brewers better hitters, and if we rank it by wRC+, only Ryan Braun has been superior on the Brewers this year (min 100 PA).

While from these numbers alone there might be a case for Rogers to get a starting gig at first base next year — especially if the Brewers end up trading Adam Lind — his month of September might be his best claim. We’ve already discussed the slash line and looked at a couple of pretty home runs, but now let’s try and examine just how good Rogers has been this month. Mainly, we’ll be examining his hitting.

First of all, I think this goes basically without saying, but Rogers is having the best September of any Brewer, at least at the plate. Now, let’s compare Rogers’ September historically to other Brewers’ September performances. (Min. 40 PA)

You may be wondering why I stopped at 1974. The data was collected from FanGraphs and after 1974 the option of looking at the month of September was not available or did not work when I was looking at it.

With a 244 wRC+, Rogers is having one of the best September hitting performances in Brewers history. Not Robin Yount, not Prince Fielder, not even Ryan Braun in his MVP season had a better September wRC+ than Jason Rogers is having this year. With that being said, I said one of the best hitting performances, because there is a selection bias here. Mainly, as the visual shows, Rogers has not had many plate appearances. The redder the dot, the fewer plate appearances. The greener the dot, the more plate appearances. This doesn’t mean that this look should be completely dismissed. What it does mean, however, is that due to the small sample size of Rogers’ plate appearance, one cannot definitively say that he is having the greatest September in Brewers history. But he is having a great one.

Let’s now compare Rogers to the rest of the league in 2015. (Min 40 PA)

This September, the only player to have accumulated a better wRC+ than Rogers is Bryce Harper, and his 245 wRC+ is only one point better than Rogers’ 244 wRC+. One can again see pretty clearly the discrepancy in plate appearances. Bryce Harper not only has the highest wRC+ in all of baseball, but he’s doing it with a ton of plate appearances. Harper is also accumulating this production on a somewhat reasonable BABIP, while Rogers has a very high BABIP, as his dot is in dark blue. (The bluer the dot the higher the BABIP, the redder the dot the lower the BABIP.)

This is, of course, not to denigrate or minimize Rogers’ accomplishment. He’s having a great September, small sample size and BABIP be damned. All of this isn’t to suggest that this is Rogers’ true talent. It’s obviously not. But it is nice to see a player — especially one who few thought would end up being successful — have success in the big leagues, even if it’s only for a short amount of time. Spending just one year in the majors can change a player’s life — financially, and in many other ways.

What might be even better to note is that due to Rogers’ success this year and this month, he just might have earned himself a full-time look for next season, especially if the Brewers trade Adam Lind. If the Brewers trade their current first baseman, there would be an open spot. And if the plan is to rebuild, it probably wouldn’t hurt to give Rogers a legitimate shot at the position next year.

Adam Lind is having a really great season. He’s proven that he can play an adequate first base, as evidenced by his +4 DRS. He’s showing he can hit in a full time role, shown by his .304 TAv. And he’s exhibited an ability to manage his back issues, which is seen by his 141 games and 542 plate appearances. He also only making $8 million next year, which isn’t expensive anymore. My point is that there should be no question that he will have strong trade value. However, as the Brewers are rebuilding, they have no real use for a first baseman on a one-year deal.

It’s true the Brewers don’t have a strong first base prospect at any level in the minors. After Adam Lind, they don’t have a strong candidate to play the position at the major-league level unless you count Jason Rogers — which I do. So even if they want to keep Adam Lind around — which would be a decision of questionable logic — they still don’t have a player to take over except for Rogers. My point — probably pretty clearly — is that it’s time to see what Jason Rogers can do in the majors.

Rogers has limited time at the major-league level, but he’s crushed it at the plate every year in the minors. He first reached Double-A in 2013 and hit .270/.346/.468. The following season he split between Double-A and Triple-A, hitting .296/.365/.489. Then this year, at the lofty and offense-inflating Colorado Springs, he hit .344/.449/.607. Even taking those numbers with a grain of salt, we see that he can mash when he’s facing an appropriate level of competition. But crushing minor-league pitching is a very different task than crushing major-league pitching.

Last year he only got ten plate appearances, but this year he’s accumulated 160. It’s still a small sample size but he’s hit .294/.369/427. That’s pretty decent and above the league’s average of .285 TAv. It’s actually more impressive that his plate appearances have been sporadic and 54 of those plate appearances have come as a pinch hitter. That’s not an easy task for any hitter, especially one who is inexperienced in the big leagues. What exactly that tells us, I’m not sure, but it shows patience and in point of fact he has a 16.3 percent walk rate as a pinch hitter.

One of the problems we have when trying to figure out how Rogers’ minor-league numbers will translate to the majors is sample size. He just doesn’t have enough plate appearances to give us a reliable idea of what he’s capable of doing. However, that walk rate and strikeout rate are two things that stabilize quickly — 120 PA and 60 PA, respectively. Both are better than league average rates — 7.6 percent for walk rates and 20.3 percent for strikeout rates. That’s a pretty good foundation and reflective of his minor-league career.

The Brewers don’t need Adam Lind next year; however, they do need a long-term solution at first base. There’s no telling if that’s Jason Rogers, but there is only one way to find out. And what little information we do have at the major-league level is encouraging. It also would be nice to net some more prospects in a deal for Adam Lind. Since there really isn’t anyone else for the first base job, I can’t think of single reason not to go this route. We’ll just have to wait and see if the Brewers new general manager feels the same way.