Top Play (WPA): Hernan Perez’s RBI single in the 6th inning tied the game at two (.174). Jonathan Villar scored on the play. Unfortunately, on this play the Brewers not only scored their last run of the game, but also recorded their last hit. Bumgarner escaped the inning after Perez was caught at second on an ill-advised steal attempt. The lefty pitched two more innings, walking one batter and hitting another, before Santiago Casilla pitched a perfect 9th inning for the save.

Perez started the game in right field and his defense was a mixed bag. While he had a nifty sliding catch, he also botched a short pop fly that fell between him at Scooter Gennett, which should have been caught.

Bottom Play (WPA): Denard Span came to the plate in the bottom of the 8th with one out and runners on the corners. Will Smith was pitching and had been wild to the previous batter, Madison Bumgarner. He threw two wild pitches in the process of walking him. Those wild pitches allowed Angel Pagan to score from second and Gregor Blanco to advance to third base. Pagan represented the winning run in the game. Span had a chance to bust the game open, but instead grounded into an inning ending double play to kill the rally and give the Brewers a chance in the 9th inning (-.089).

Trend to Watch: Last night was Matt Garza’s first start of the season. He pitched four innings, allowing one run, eight hits, a walk, and struck out five batters. He threw eighty seven pitches and fifty four were strikes. As a first outing for a pitcher who will be given every chance to keep his rotation spot and possibly build up some trade value, it was a positive start.

Of course, if Garza is to have any trade value, he’ll need to improve upon his 2015 performance when he was knocked around. His 2015 DRA was 6.17, which was higher than his 2013 and 2014 seasons… combined. BPMilwaukee featured Garza’s call-up yesterday, and went deep into what Garza has been and could be in the future.

Taking a quick look at Garza’s work last night, there weren’t many big changes in velocity or pitch selection. He threw his two and four seam fastballs at about the same rate as last year, each around .5 mph slower but not much of a velocity difference between the two pitches. He mixed in his changeup and curveball a bit more frequently, both at the expense of his slider. At least from this initial game, Garza didn’t make too many adjustments. He has his arsenal, he had a similar approach, and hopefully he’ll have better results this year. For reference purposes, I’ve put the numbers I used in a chart below.

Matt Garza 2015:
 

Matt Garza 6/14/16 vs. Giants
 

Next Up: An afternoon matinee closes out the series in San Francisco, as the Brewers attempt to avoid the sweep. Jimmy Nelson starts for Milwaukee. After a strong run through May, he’s been roughed up in his past two starts against the Phillies and Mets. In 9.3 innings, he’s allowed 8 runs, 15 hits, 5 walks, with only 6 strikeouts. However, his first start of the year was against the Giants in Milwaukee, and he pitched 7.3 innings, allowing only 2 runs. Johnny Cueto is scheduled to start for San Francisco. Since May 2, Cueto has pitched at least 6 innings in every start and allowed less than two runs (fun fact!). Cueto’s first start of the season was the same game Nelson pitched against the Giants. Cueto went 7 innings, allowing 1 run, as the Giants won 2-1. First pitch is 2:45.

Top Play (WPA):
Brandon Crawford HR, Top of the 3^rd Inning Ties the Game at 1 (.113)
The highest play by WPA defaults to the homerun by Crawford to tie the game in the 3^rd inning. After the Brewers and Giants combined for 15 runs on Opening Day, only three scored yesterday, and those other two runs scored on a double play and a fielder’s choice. Nelson had a strong performance, but he hung a changeup to Crawford, who destroyed the pitch. As a note, the winning run of the game, which came on a Fielder’s Choice by Matt Duffy, was lower than this homerun because it came with the bases loaded.

Worst Play (WPA):
This was not the best day for the Brewers offensively. After the 4^th inning, they only got two hits (and no walks), and looked overmatched at times against Johnny Cueto. The worst play of the game according to WPA was Ryan Braun’s fly out to lead off the 9^th inning against Santiago Casilla. WPA measured that out at -.089. However, I’d say that Ramon Flores’ double play in the 2^nd was more damaging.

The offensive struggles came after two promising innings where the Brewers only scored one run. After Jonathan Lucroy and Chris Carter singled to start the 2^nd inning, Ramon Flores grounded into a double play. The run scored, but the play was worth -.058, as it ruined the potential for a big inning. Flores battled in the at-bat, running a full count, but he hit a grounder straight to Crawford, positioned up the middle, for the easy double play. Even though the run scored and gave the Brewers the lead, it was still a negative value play (-.058).

In their next crack at Cueto, the inning once again started on a promising note. Jonathan Villar doubled to lead off and Nelson executed a sacrifice bunt to get him to third base. Unfortunately, Domingo Santana swung at the first pitch and hit a sharp grounder to Crawford, who nailed Villar at the plate, with a nice tag by Buster Posey. Santana would make it to 3^rd base on Scooter Gennett’s single, but he was the last Brewers runner to make it that far for the rest of the game. Cueto then retired nine batters in a row, and the Brewers didn’t really threaten to score for the rest of the game.

Trend to Watch:
To steal Julien’s line from yesterday: “It’s the [second] game of the season, therefore, there aren’t many trends to note.” However, Nelson’s strong performance deserves extra kudos. Nelson took a big step forward last year, making 30 starts with a 3.89 DRA and 2.4 WARP. While the Brewers aren’t expecting to contend this year, someone has to soak up some innings at an adequate level. Therefore, the results last night were encouraging. Nelson went into the 8^th inning against a quality lineup and held his own. Aside from Crawford’s bomb, Nelson looked good. Sure, the defensive miscue on Pence’s grounder in the 4^th led to the winning run scoring, but I think if everyone knew Nelson’s final line going into the game, most would have been happy and even expected a Brewers win.

Up Next:
An afternoon matinee to close out the series against San Francisco. Taylor Jungmann makes his 2016 debut and will face Jeff Samardzijia in his first game in a Giants uniform. We all know this is going to be a long season if you’re paying attention to the results, but it would be nice to get a win in the first series of the season.