Perrin has the build to start, as he stands 6’5″ and weighs in at 220 lbs. Although he doesn’t overwhelm with his stuff, he mixes his four pitches well and can throw his fastball, curveball, slider, and changeup all for strikes. He was scouted in the lower levels as having the potential upside of a mid-to-back of the rotation starter, so it seemed a bit curious when the Brewers converted him to full-time relief to begin 2018. The right started the year with Colorado Springs and authored a 2.59 ERA across 24.1 innings, but was sent back down to Biloxi while guys like Alec Asher and Paolo Espino received turns in the Triple-A rotation. Perrin continued to pitch out of the bullpen for the Shuckers until the trade, which GM David Stearns classified as “allowing Jon to get a little bit of a fresh opportunity.”

Perrin is Rule-5 eligible this fall and given how the org treated him this season, it was probably unlikely that he was going to net a 40 man roster spot. The rebuilding Royals are devoid of pitching talent, and therefore can offer Perrin a better opportunity to not only reach the majors more quickly, but to get there as a starting pitcher. The 25 year old has been pitching in the rotation for Double-A Northwestern Arkansas since the swap, posting a 3.21 ERA across 14.0 innings covering three starts.

In exchange for Perrin, the Brewers received a 22 year old right-hander who, according to Slingin’ Stearns, has “some ingredients to turn into a prospect.” Sal Biasi was an 11th-round pick of the Royals just last summer in 2017 and inked for a $125,000 bonus, the maximum slot value for a pick in rounds 11-40. Baseball America described the stocky right-hander as “a near-average athlete with functional body control and looseness to his delivery” while evoking a George Costanza comp, but a scout I spoke with indicated that Biasi is someone that the Brewers have liked for awhile and that he deserves more credit than that for his athleticism. The Penn State product had an offer to walk on to Villanova’s basketball team before electing to pursue baseball with the Nittany Lions.

Biasi has a pretty simple delivery, pitching exclusively from the stretch while releasing the ball from a standard high three-quarters arm slot. His arm action and head tilt creates a little bit of deception and can make it a bit tougher for hitters to pick the ball up out of his hand. His fastball is his best pitch, sitting in the low-90s with the ability to run up to 95 MPH. Both Baseball America and my scouting source thought Biasi’s secondary pitch, a curveball in the 79-82 MPH range, was a below-average pitch when he was drafted. Those factors, along with the idea that Biasi is a bit undersized at 6’0″ and 190 lbs, lead most to believe that his future will ultimately be in the bullpen. He’s pitched predominantly as a reliever since joining the professional ranks, starting only eight of 44 appearances over the last two seasons.

Biasi posted a nifty 2.41 ERA while tossing 56.0 innings across two rookie levels in his debut season of 2017, though peripherals like DRA didn’t exactly support that level of run prevention. His numbers have come back down to Earth during his first exposure to full-season ball in 2018. Biasi owns a 4.73 ERA in 51.3 innings for Milwaukee’s and Kansas City’s Class-A affiliates this year, though he has allowed only three earned runs in 8.7 innings so far for Wisconsin. He’s missed plenty of bats this season, whiffing 9.3 batters per nine innings, and his 3.9 BB/9 is a palatable number.

Since taking over in 2016, the Stearns regime has done an incredible job developing and deploying their pitchers. Milwaukee’s track record with their arms and their highly-respected cadre of pitching coaches, led at the MLB level by Derek Johnson and filtering throughout the org, gets me automatically interested in just about every pitcher that the front office specifically targets and brings into the fold. After all, this is the org that has coaxed ace-level run prevention from Junior Guerra and Chase Anderson, resuscitated the career of Wade Miley, taught veteran hurlers Jeremy Jeffress and Jhoulys Chacin a split-finger pitch that has become key to the success of both pitchers, and developed Freddy Peralta from teenager to rookie strikeout sensation.

So maybe Sal Biasi, who you won’t find on any top-30 prospect lists, is just a future reliever. Maybe the main driver of this deal was that unlike Jon Perrin, he happens to have another two years until he needs to be protected from the Rule 5 Draft. Or, maybe the “ingredients” are indeed there for Sal Biasi to turn into more. Maybe his track record of pitching multiple innings means he can stretch out to be a starter. Maybe the org can help him improve the bite on his curveball a bit, and perhaps he learns the signature Milwaukee splitter to give him a three-pitch mix. Maybe the Brewers have some sort of biomechanical analysis that will help him thrive even with fringe to below-average command grades, like Guerra and Chacin and Peralta before him.

The “maybes” are the fun part about dreaming on prospects. Now all we have to do is watch how things play out.

The argument is that these players faced an impending roster crunch, so I thought it was time for another big, unwieldy, speculative post on such a crunch. What does the Brewers’ crunch look like? Is there a roster crunch?

Brief Aside on the Rule 5 Draft:
The Rule 5 draft is ostensibly meant to serve as a labor institution that keeps MLB teams from hoarding minor league players without an equal shot at MLB roles with other teams; thus, after certain required time periods (based on when / how a player was acquired), the Brewers must protect minor league players on their 40-man roster or risk their exposure to the Rule 5 draft (which typically takes place at the end of each winter meetings). The gamble is that any team selecting a Rule 5 player must typically keep that player on their MLB roster, meaning that if the Brewers do not necessarily foresee an impact or serviceable MLB role for a minor leaguer, they can leverage that risk by not protecting the player for the Rule 5 draft. Recently, teams like the San Diego Padres have called teams’ bluffs by selecting low-minors players, including the Brewers’ gamble with former Top Ten prospect RHP Miguel Diaz, eschewing the typical Triple-A / advanced minors depth player selected in the draft. The Brewers have multiple players spanning these types of gambles for 2019, ranging from low minors gambles like Carlos Herrera to advanced depth players like Bubba Derby or Quintin Torres-Costa.

Let’s start with a look at some of the best Rule 5 prospects available from the Brewers system. This list of eligible players is available thanks to the indispensable Brewerfan.net. The order is mine, based on how I might grade out the risk and potential future roles of these players:

First and foremost, if it matters, I would have slotted RHP Luis Ortiz first on this list, and he is also the most certain player of this group to appear on a 2019 Top 10 list due to one of the clearest potential impact roles of the bunch (even given his risk); LHP Kodi Medeiros would have slotted around Cody Ponce and Jake Gatewood; RHP Jon Perrin would have slotted around Herrera / Segovia / Torres-Costa. (For what it’s worth, among this group I would consider protecting Supak, Stokes, Gatewood, and Ponce).

This is a long way of saying that the Brewers arguably already traded away their best possible roles available in the Rule 5 draft for 2019, which is certainly one way to rid an organization of a potential roster crunch. As you can see looking at these prospects, there are fewer potential impact roles available, and notably fewer tough decisions for GM David Stearns. It is not clear who on this list is a player that would derail the organization if left unprotected. I’d love to sing the praises of Nathan Kirby or Devin Williams, but their respective injury histories and subsequent development raises significant questions to the point that I’m not sure how to form MLB roles; I’d place both in the Taylor Williams “it would be great if they came back and could be serviceable MLB relievers” role.

I am certain that other fans have potential Rule 5 picks that they like more than the prospects I listed, and I’m certain other folks would list these prospects in different orders. That is fine. What I want to stress is that if one actually lays out the potential roles of these players, it’s tough to see some crush of must-protect-impact-players that would cause a roster crunch worthy of trading away the (most likely) best roles from the group. Right now, it seems like Trey Supak, Quintin Torres-Costa, and Bubba Derby are players who could “play up” in Milwaukee’s current pitching system. But should all three be protected on the 40-man roster?

Thanks to recent moves, the Brewers also have a group of players with contract options for 2019, which is a good thing because the club has less than $70 million in agreements guaranteed thus far. In short: this is a team that could pick up some options and spend some cash at the MLB level, especially given the financial success of the rebuild.

Among this group, only Jordan Lyles would be a “roster crunch”-causing player. The Brewers could decline Lyles’s option in order to protect an additional player from the Rule 5 draft, or (obviously) make some other type of acquisition to bolster the club. For what it is worth, I would renew both Moustakas and Soria. Both are valuable veteran types who would help to boost a club that is now clearly within a contending window.

As I have covered throughout the year with the Daily Pythagorean record posting on @BPMilwaukee Twitter, the Brewers are averaging approximately 85-win outcomes throughout 2018 (based on their park-and-league-adjusted Runs Scored / Runs Allowed). Milwaukee is a team that is succeeding due to the uneven distribution of their bullpen and fielding success, meaning that elite relievers and extremely efficient fielding are bringing-up other aspects of the club. Additionally, there are park factor discrepancies between Baseball Prospectus and Baseball Reference such that if one follows Baseball Prospectus, the offense is much better than most fans and analysts observe (in terms of underlying elements). It’s simply the case that those underlying elements (prior to the trade deadline) still resulted in frightening frequent low-scoring games.

One benefit of the Brewers #TeamDepth attitude is that the roster is built with numerous cost-controlled players who seemingly look replaceable on paper. And thus, considering Milwaukee’s potential arbitration-eligible players and free agents is the most interesting area of the so-called roster crunch. Here I’ve attempted to rank players roughly by role:

Looking at these players, it is first and foremost clear that there is a discrepancy between Wins Above Replacement Player statistics (based on underlying stats) and the distributional strengths of the club in terms of Runs Scored and Runs Allowed. Thus, seemingly replaceable players like Junior Guerra, Wade Miley, Hernan Perez, and Dan Jennings thrive in Milwaukee’s system. This is a good thing, and perhaps some of the reason for this current roster-crunch talk is that the Brewers are loaded with a group of players that are not great but certainly cannot be discarded.

Yet, even with this caveat, nearly half of these players could be replaced in 2019. Some of these difficult decisions could follow injuries (such as Stephen Vogt), or an “end-of-the-line” in terms of MLB role in Milwaukee (see Nick Franklin, Keon Broxton, or Tyler Saladino). One could conceivably slice this group of pending transactions in numerous ways.

Coupled with yet another group of players ranging from Marcos Diplan to Matt Albers and Ariel Hernandez, Alec Asher and Aaron Wilkerson, there appears to be significant wiggle room on the 40-man roster. Thus, one ought to return to the deadline trades and reassess the acquisition cost and trade strategy used by Stearns; this is not to say that the trades were bad across the board, but rather that the allocation of resources to pick up these players is worth questioning. It is not clear that a pending Rule 5 roster crunch was so severe to necessitate steep costs where those costs involved Rule 5 players. Given this, one can turn back to the MLB acquisitions returned in the trades, and assess those roles for the contending stretch.

It is fun to be in a position to assess a club’s moves solely on a contending basis, but when the long-term picture is also invoked, it must be invoked carefully: in the case of the 2019 Brewers, the roster crunch storyline does not appear to add up. Stearns had, and continues to have, far too many 2019 options for clearing roster space to have traded Ortiz, Medeiros, and Perrin solely for those reasons. Thus, it is more interesting to suggest that Stearns was flipping potential long-term assets for controllable MLB players (in the case of Schoop, Soria, and Moustakas), or potentially clearing roster space for additional acquisitions during the 2018-2019 offseason. With (easily) more than $60 million to spend and a once in a lifetime free agency class, that latter point serves as an even more interesting roster motivation for clearing away Rule 5 protections.

Stepping into speculative histories of MLB players, I’ve been thinking about what I’d expect from players like Burnes or Peralta if they reached the MLB in 2018. Both pitchers provide extreme challenges to the observer, and for different reasons.

• Burnes provides a challenge because the righty’s quick ascent to the advanced minors has out-paced the non-proprietary information available about the pitcher, which manifested itself during the 2017 season in the form of widely varying fastball, slider, and delivery reports. From early in the season, when on-the-ground reports placed Burnes as a potentially high reliever-risk profile who could make it work as a middle rotation starter, to late in the season when delivery adjustments and improved fastball reports began leaking out, fans and analysts were essentially given several different pitchers’ worth of information. Entering 2018, then, it’s worth asking whether Burnes is the fastball / slider reliever with middle rotation question marks, the middle rotation arm who could decrease reliever risk by continuing to refine his delivery, or the surging pitching prospect who simply continues to redefine roles by refining mechanics and therefore allowing his stuff to take the next step. All of this can happen with Burnes, or none of it; thus the righty prospect is an acute example of information asymmetry.

• Peralta faces different questions about his stuff and profile, especially due to his diminished stature (compared to Burnes) and his pitching approach (he’s not quite a command-and-deception guy, but he twists and turns his fastballs in order to help his stuff “play up”). In one sense, Peralta is much more conventional than Burnes, insofar as Peralta will be lauded as “the small framed righty who proved everyone wrong” should his frame stick in a functional mid-rotation role. On the other hand, given the frame and lack of a strong fastball, it is worth questioning how Peralta’s arsenal and command will play as he advances in the system. The significance of the righty’s pitch sequencing and location will not be understated. It’s tough to say whether Peralta faces “reliever risk” in the same sense Burnes does, as Peralta’s top role is even murkier than his Advanced Minors teammate.

So, if Burnes and Peralta reach the MLB in 2018, what will their potential roles be? What performance levels might fans expect? With Counsell looking at both pitchers as potential midseason reinforcements for the staff, it is worth digging into potential production expectations.

Role risk will be nothing new to the 2018 Brewers; role risk is all over the roster, even beyond the rookie class. But, in attempting to form expectations about Burnes and Peralta, I turned to other rookie pitchers that are on the MLB roster or in Spring Training camp as non-roster invitees. By my count, these rookies comprise (in order of height) Peralta, Taylor Williams, Marcos Diplan, Jorge Lopez, Aaron Wilkerson, Erik Davis, Burnes, Luis Ortiz, Adrian Houser, Brandon Woodruff, Tyler Webb, and Jon Perrin.

• Several of these arms are already established as MLB relievers or very likely to have relief roles in 2018 (see Williams, Lopez, Davis, Houser, and Webb).

• A few of these arms are organizational depth with questionable futures in terms of organizational plans (see Diplan, Lopez, Wilkerson, Davis, Ortiz, and Perrin).

• Finally, there’s a deep group of potential rotation depth, in terms of starters who could work as rotational replacements or MLB emergency starters in 2018 (Peralta, Diplan, Lopez, Wilkerson, Burnes, Ortiz, and Perrin).

• Woodruff is likely the only pitcher here who is a rotational lock in 2018 (and even writing that leads me to raise some questions, as “There is no such thing as a pitching prospect,” there is no such thing as a surefire pitching role).

Available PECOTA projections (March 2, 2018) for 2018 Brewers rookies (Erik Davis and Jon Perrin projections unavailable). This table features IP projections, as well as Runs Allowed and Runs Prevented figures drawn from projected Deserved Runs Average. Runs Prevented figures are drawn from an average of the 2016-2017 Miller Park / National League. PECOTA strike outs, walks, and WARP are also featured.

With these dozen pitchers, I’ve already laid out extensive role risk simply by categorizing these arms. So, in order to form potential expectations for 2018, I turned to speculative history: namely, how many pitchers in the MLB expansion era matched these arms’ precise height, weight range, handedness, and age as rookies? That is to ask, if these pitchers reach the MLB as rookies in 2018 (e.g., their precise 2018 age), how does their physical profile fare (e.g., their handedness, height, and weight?).

To answer this question, and engage in this speculative exercise, I used the indispensable (and highly recommended) Baseball Reference Play Index to search comparable expansion era players. I searched the expansion era because it is a largely integrated era that also includes a relatively similar form of baseball over the decades in terms of pitching arsenals or prototypes (it tracks the diminishing knuckleball, rise of the splitter / forkball, rise of the fastball / slider profile, etc.). Additionally, as I attempted to search other time frames, I found the reasoning to be rather arbitrary (e.g., if I search the Wild Card Era, should I simply search the Contemporary PED era? If I only search the expanded Wild Card Era (2012-present) will I have a large enough group of players to analyze? And so on).

Using the expansion era, here are the search results from Baseball Reference Play Index. For each player, I searched exact height, handedness, age, and rookie status, while also searching a five percent range in weight (there are some issues with using listed weight). The “Comps” column shows the number of historical rookie comparisons for each potential 2018 Brewers rookie.

This table shows the basic summary of the searches that I conducted using the Play Index tool. What immediately surprised me was the lack of comparisons for some players (like Peralta, Diplan, and Webb), and the large number of comparisons available for “prototypical” starting pitching frames (particularly Lopez, Burnes, and Woodruff). Alternately, for a supposedly “old” prospect, the number of comparisons available for Perrin also surprised me, which suggests to me that there has been a path in MLB history for righties of his size and draft pedigree to reach the MLB, even if it takes a while.

Meandering through the comparisons, there are simply some fun and interesting names that appear.

• 2018 rookie Jon Perrin would reach the MLB at the same time as 2012 rookie Yu Darvish, who shares Perrin’s handedness, age, height, and basic weight range; among older comps, Doug Brocail and Todd Worrell are my favorites for Perrin.

• A few names jump off of 2018 rookie Brandon Woodruff’s spreadsheet, like Corey Kluber (!), Ryan Vogelsong, and (of course), Tim Worrell.

• Corbin Burnes has Michael Fulmer and Steve Bedrosian, Houser has Kevin Quackenbush, while Neftali Feliz and Shelby Miller belong to Luis Ortiz. Fulmer is a fascinating comp for Burnes not because of his excellent MLB performance, but because he shared Burnes’s information asymmetry in terms of advanced minors scouting roles and MLB adjustments to exceed expectations. Feliz and Miller are interesting comps for Ortiz, for as the righty faces questions about innings workload and relief risk, it’s good to remember that successful arms have also shared the righty’s frame, height, and age as rookies.

• The lone comps for Diplan and Peralta? Peralta matches 2000 rookie Byung-Hyun Kim (!), while Diplan matches 1965 rookie Dick Selma.

• Obviously, there is a world of gray area here, as these comparisons say nothing about a player’s draft or international development status, stuff, place in the minor league system, etc. Moreover, for my search, I did not use these comparisons to create trends or aging curves, so what I am attempting should not be read alongside the (much more methodologically sound) PECOTA system.

From these searches, a batch of 257 rookie comparison seasons resulted. In order to analyze potential performance markers in environments comparable to the 2016-2017 MLB, I indexed each season according to Runs Allowed per Game (RA/G), and sampled post-Strike rookies that played during a season with a run environment within 5 percent of the 2017 RA/G. This analysis produced a sample of 85 rookie comparison seasons. The following table shows the basic production range for this 85 rookie population:

For this analysis, I focused on Innings Pitched and basic league-level Runs Prevented (I did not investigate historical park factors for this analysis). To compensate for the lack of park factors, I produced a range of runs prevented estimates. Overall, this group of pitchers did not average high innings pitched totals (presumably due to their rookie status, in many cases), with the average pitcher in this sample working nearly 39.0 innings.

This sample can be further categorized to focus on each specific Brewers rookie’s physical profile. In the next table, a range of runs prevented (RnPrv, LowRnPrv, and HighRnPrv) accompany Innings Pitched and Runs averages and standard deviation (IP, IP_StDev; Rn, Rn_StDev).

This table undoubtedly demonstrates a wide range of potentialities for these Brewers rookie pitchers. The innings pitched variance alone suggests that these players could range anywhere from “Did Not Play” to 70-to-80 IP seasons. It’s easy to get excited about some of these results; for example, 75 innings pitched and five runs prevented from Corbin Burnes, or 56.3 IP and six runs prevented from Taylor Williams would represent excellent rotational and bullpen support for Milwaukee.

Yet, the basic averages might provide some hint as to why the Brewers front office has remained quiet on the pitching free agency market thus far: even averaging around 35 innings and providing moderate runs prevented totals, this group of pitchers has a physical pedigree that suggests competent replacement depth can come from rookie ranks. Of course, it is impossible to fully extrapolate from these historical rookie comparisons to the Brewers 2018 pitching staff; this is not a correlative relationship. Yet, through this speculative historical analysis, one can find that Milwaukee has some solid physical characteristics with plenty of historical counterparts (especially Lopez, Burnes, and Woodruff); there are also some nearly one-of-a-kind profiles (see Diplan, Peralta, and Webb). Ultimately, these dozen rookies present Milwaukee’s front office and field management with an array of options to collect outs and prevent runs, even if they’re a group of wide-ranging replacements.

Baseball Prospectus. 2018 PECOTA (March 2, 2018) [CSV]. Retrieved March 4, 2018 from baseballprospectus.com.

Baseball Prospectus. “More PECOTA” (Player Cards). Retrieved March 4, 2018 from baseballprospectus.com.

Baseball Reference. Play Index. Sports Reference, LLC., Sports Reference LLC, 2000-2018. Searches conducted March 3, 2018 from baseball-reference.com.

This is a fascinating development for a franchise that has not been known for pitching, and fans and analysts may have to get used to this scenario: the arms are ahead of the bats across the system. In 2017, while consecutive first round draft picks Corey Ray and Trent Clark backpedaled, pop-up pitcher Corbin Burnes posted a phenomenal year and saw his stuff tick ahead after noted mechanical adjustments in his delivery. But the pitching development hardly ends with Burnes, who exemplifies the current stock of middle-to-back end rotation starting pitching prospects that grade out as thoroughly solid quality within that role; reports cooled on Cody Ponce, but he had a ho hum innings building season, as did Luis Ortiz at Class-AA; Freddy Peralta was chasing Burnes for most impactful pitching season within the minors; his trademate Carlos Herrera took a big step forward in full season ball; and behind these quality depth options, Trey Supak, Josh Pennington, and others still had quite fine seasons.

Related Reading:
2017 Brewers Minors: Bats

There is a type of depth with these pitchers that simply cannot be matched by the current bats in the Brewers system. Currently, the bats feature multiple risk factors, especially in terms of developing hit tools. This profile not only suits graduates Lewis Brinson and Brett Phillips, but also the aforementioned Clark and Ray, among others. Perhaps the selection of Keston Hiura in the 2017 draft is most important to counteract this risky trend, although Hiura simply reapplies that risk in a different area of the game. If the Brewers bats currently fit the profile of “could be big tools impact” / “might not make it out of a bench role,” the arms are quite the opposite, with no true top-end pitching prospect in the system. It’s a beautiful thing: not one ace. But among those non-aces, perhaps a number of starters that could prove as “boring” as Zach Davies, or have question marks answered like Chase Anderson or even Jimmy Nelson.

One gets the sense that these Brewers arms could be plugged in the rotation any which way, which should be considered an exciting affair given the recent hype of pitching coach Derek Johnson’s blank-slate, situational-personal coaching approach. It should also be mentioned that in an era of velocity, the top Milwaukee arms are hardly flamethrowers, which adds an interesting question about whether the Brewers are exploiting undervalued aspects of the game (I know that’s a played out question by now, but still…), or simply whether the Brewers have found a profile of arm that fits their system or organizational approach.

To accompany the statistical index of 2017 Brewers minor league bats, I have prepared an index of statistics for the 2017 arms in the affiliated ranks. To provide basic consistency with the survey range for the bats, I translated the initial scale of 50 batting PA to 16.7 pitching IP for assessing seasons. This largely produced a similar number of players across leagues, which also means that league median statistic figures should have a solid range to reflect statistical context.

I choose the method of indexing statistics because it is relatively straightforward in terms of user interface: every metric can be measured against a “constant” or comparison variable, such as “Player Total Average (TAv)” versus “League TAv.” In an index, 1.00 can basically be read as “average,” for it means that a player’s metric perfectly matches the comparison metric. For example, righty Eric Hanhold played his age-23 season at Class-Advanced A Carolina, where the median age was also 23; his index is therefore 1.00 for that statistic.

It should be noted that I calculated the index in a different way for pitching prospects in order to remain consistent with the batting index. This means that an overall index greater than 1.00 suggests that a pitcher’s OPS-allowed was better than the average contextual indicators in the league, and that an index below 1.00 means that pitcher was below average given the context of the league. In order to provide additional context to an index that only weighs age, park factor, and opposing OPS alongside OPS-allowed, I added a Deserved Run Average (DRA) index so that readers can compare outcomes and reflect on the validity of the OPS-allowed index.

This index is slightly different than the batting index, since there are different OPS values for pitchers and their opponents (for example, a batter is facing tougher opposition if the opposing OPS is lower; for pitchers, tougher opposition means higher OPS from opponents). For this reason:

+1.00 Age Index means “younger” than league average age.

+1.00 oppOPS Index means better than average opponents (compared to the league).

+1.00 Park Index means hitter’s park.

This index should not be read as a significant, be-all / end-all assessment of pitching performance. Instead, it should be read alongside other statistics and scouting reports as an indicator of the context in which the pitcher performed, as well as how their advanced performance (via DRA) compared to the league.

A few observations:

• Like the batting index, the “non-prospects” immediately dominate this pitching index. Trey Supak has been a deep cut since the Brewers acquired the projection-upside play in the Jason Rogers trade, and the righty worked what finally would be his first full season….at age 21. Taylor Jungmann is hardly even old for Class-AAA Colorado Springs as an organizational depth option. Quiet relief prospect Bubba Derby, a member of the Khris Davis trade, worked a season that matches the “contextual” aspects of Corbin Burnes or Supak (his trademate Jacob Nottingham also had a fine season on the batting index). Freddy Peralta looks like loads of fun, bringing numerous fastball and off-speed / breaking ball offerings and a funky delivery to keep hitters off balance. In this case, the command aspects (and delivery repetition due to a crossfire set-up) of the scouting report should be read alongside the index to round out future role and expectations, but it is undeniable that Peralta placed himself on the radar of quality organizational depth (at worst) in 2017.

• Cody Ponce had quite an interesting year in terms of DRA deviating from his other contextual factors. In terms of OPS, age, and park factors, Ponce scored well in both Carolina and Biloxi. Yet, the righty’s DRA did not stack up against either league, with DRA index of 0.86 and 0.97 in both assignments, respectively. The big righty is making his way up the organizational ladder, however, and it’s tough not to dream on that cutter or fastball at least helping Ponce secure a solid bullpen role of some sort.

• BP scouting team member James Fisher provided a detailed description of Jordan Yamamoto for last season’s midseason prospect feature, noting that delivery refinements and stuff progression drove the righty’s stock. Yamamoto continued to build on that 2016 notice with an excellent 2017 campaign, arguably putting together the most interesting pitching season in the organization (Burnes received the hype, but Yamamoto could have defined a role).The righty was extremely young for the Carolina League, and if the progression continues, the youngster could be primed to expand on a 140+ IP floor during his age-22 season at Class-AA Biloxi. It is worth noting that Yamamoto did not face tough competition in Carolina, although the funky park factors and his age did mightily correct for that indicator. If you’re skeptical about the index, DRA likes Yamamoto even more.

• Additional potential 2018 pop-ups / projection guys who posted better than average contextual index and DRA scores: Zack Brown, Josh Pennington, Braden Webb, and Thomas Jankins. Keep an eye on: Parker Berberet (!!!), Luis Ortiz, Jorge Lopez, Matt Ramsey, and Jon Perrin.

His junior season was a revelation. Perrin, now pumping his fastball over the plate in the low-90s, covered 102 innings with a 2.38 ERA, twirling a pair of complete-game shutouts among his 13 starts. His command came and went to the tune of 2.5 walks per nine, but he did enough that year to catch the eye of the Detroit Tigers, who selected him the 33rd round of the 2014 MLB Draft. For whatever reason, maybe because his performance deserved a higher selection, maybe because he was determined to finish his education, he went back to school in 2015.

Senior year was something of a step back. Perrin started 16 games and covered 84.3 innings, but his walk rate ballooned to 3.31 per nine innings. The flagging command may have resulted in a get-it-over-fastball dependency. Perrin surrendered seven home runs on the year, after allowing only two in his collegiate career to that point. Still, he’d flashed enough potential for his draft stock to improve; the Brewers gobbled him up in the 27th round and quickly sent him to Arizona to begin his professional career.

He made short work of the Arizona League, flummoxing hitters one and a half years his junior over ten dominant innings. Perrin moved up to Appleton and out-pitched his peripherals for the rest of the season, finishing with just shy of 40 innings and walking only four batters.

These results were the first indications that Perrin might be more than a run-of-the-mill 27th-rounder. Still, Perrin was far from the first advanced college arm to carve his way through the Midwest League. He was sent back to Appleton to start 2016, and lay waste to the league before a mid-season bump to Brevard County, which, it should be noted, scarcely slowed him down. He earned a bump to Class-AA at season’s end, and could have made a strong candidate for Minor League Pitcher of the Year, were it not for what Brandon Woodruff was up to in Biloxi.

2017 held a stiffer test. Perrin’s chief weapon is a fastball that tops out in the low-90s. The pitch has some natural sink, but Perrin relies primarily on deception. Hitters have a tough time reading pitches out of his hand, and he hides the ball well with his 3/4 delivery. Most importantly, he can spot the fastball throughout the strike zone.

He pairs that pitch with a slider that sits in the low to mid-80s and darts into or out of the strike zone for a share of whiffs. His changeup is coming along, too, and dives towards the dirt when he’s got it working. It, too, sits in the low to mid-80s, which renders his secondary offerings vulnerable when they’re not bending the way they should—ideally, one would like to see a little more separation among his velocities.

Perrin spent the entire 2017 season pitching for the Biloxi Shuckers, though he missed a month with a back injury in the middle of the season. AA is the level at which it become easier to distinguish wheat from chaff. The strike zone is a bit tighter, the hitters are a bit smarter, and many a fringe pitcher has seen his ascent to the big leagues slowed by advanced offenses that are better equipped to punish mistakes. But when Perrin took the mound for the Shuckers, he shone; for example, compare his 2.62 DRA to the 2.30 mark posted by the much-hyped Corbin Burnes.

What’s most remarkable about Perrin’s ascent through the minor leagues is the remarkable consistency he’s shown at each level. If you strip away the small samples immediately before or after a promotion and focus on one level per year—low-A ball in 2015, A+ in 2016, and AA in 2017, his numbers are eerily similar.

The fact that Perrin is likely ticketed to Colorado Springs next season could change that piece of symmetry. Then again, Perrin has made a habit of beating expectations. It’s not a stretch to imagine the former 27th-round pick giving Milwaukee useful bullpen innings or spot starts as soon as the end of next year. In fact, it’s a bit of a shame that his development hadn’t started one year sooner. With his 6’5” frame and plausible role as a future innings-eater, he’s exactly the kind of get-the-job-done fifth starter the Brewers could use right now.

Most minor league fans know the story of Perrin’s law school ambitions. He famously told reporters that he’d happily walk away from baseball if he was accepted at Harvard Law, his preferred school. His Twitter bio pegs him as a “future lawyer,” with baseball only mentioned insofar as his role as a “Milwaukee Brewers part time seasonal apprentice.” But Perrin is inching his way closer to big-league ready, and looks more and more like a viable major league arm. I hope he gets that law degree from Harvard. But I’d be glad if he waited a few years before enrolling.

The one full-season club that hasn’t made much noise all season long is the lower A ball club, Class-A Wisconsin Timber Rattlers. The T-Rats sit at a lowly 53-75 even after last night’s 4-3 win over Peoria, which places them as the 2nd-worst team among the 16 squads that comprise the Midwest League. Their struggles have come on both sides of the ball, as Wisconsin owns the worst collective OPS in the league (.644) as well as the 3rd-worst earned run average (4.45).

It hasn’t been all disappointment for Wisconsin this season, however. A few of the prospects on the roster have stood out this season, including one of the top performing pitchers in the Midwest League this season.

Thomas Jankins was selected by the Milwaukee Brewers in the 13th round of the 2016 MLB Draft out of Quinnipiac University in Connecticut, a school known more for its prominent polling institute than for its athletic programs. Jankins was the third-highest selection from the school since the draft moved to June in 1986; the university has sent only one alumnus – longtime reliever Turk Wendell – all the way to the major leagues. If early indications mean anything, however, Jankins may be well on his way to joining Wendell by appearing in the big leagues someday.

After inking for a $100,000 bonus, Jankins hit the ground running as a professional. He began his career in Helena, as collegiate signees often do after the draft. In four games with the Brewers, the righty allowed four runs in 11.7 innings, but a nifty 14:2 K/BB ratio helped prompt a bump up to Wisconsin to finish out 2016. He made eight appearances down the stretch for the Timber Rattlers last season, compiling a 3.20 ERA/3.51 DRA with 21 strikeouts and 6 walks in 25.3 innings pitched.

Assigned back to Wisconsin for his age-21 season in 2017, Jankins has shone for the Timber Rattlers throughout the year. He’s been a model of consistency and durability, making 25 appearances and pitching a league-leading 131.7 innings. Jankins’s 3.76 ERA is easily better than the league average of 3.94, but even that doesn’t accurately depict how well he’s pitched this season. His 2.76 Deserved Run Average translates to a DRA- of 60.5, or 39.5 percent better than the Midwest League average. That means he’s been one of the most effective starters on the circuit in 2017.

Jankins possesses a starter’s build at 6’3″ tall and 200 lbs, and creates quite a difficult downward plane for hitters by coming from a high three-quarters arm slot, nearly over the top. He uses this angle to help generate plenty of ground balls, which he’s induced at a 56 percent rate this season. According to a pre-draft report from Baseball America, on a good night Jankins was sitting in the 89-92 MPH range with his fastball coming out of Quinnipiac, and could touch 93 MPH at times. BA praised his fastball for having above-average sink and noted that he’d shown flashes with both a curveball and changeup. Because of his lack of exposure to high-level coaching, Jankins was viewed as “projectable” by many scouts when he was coming out.

Thomas Jankins 6 K’s #TRats pic.twitter.com/pKDS4UdpnC

— Brewers Prospects (@BrewerProspect) July 22, 2017

The Brewers were obviously intrigued by what they saw in Jankins, and things have been working out quite well thus far. His stuff doesn’t jump off the board, but Jankins produces quality outing after quality outing by keeping the ball on the ground and limiting free passes – he’s walked just 5.4 percent of the hitters he’s faced this season, and his 2.1 BB/9 ranks 8th-best among Midwest League arms that have thrown at least 100 innings. He can miss a bat or two as well with a 20.3 percent strikeout rate this season, though his 7.6 K/9 does sit just below the league average. Jankins has been pitching especially well of late; he’s posted a 2.29 ERA over his last 63.0 innings and was Wisconsin’s pitcher of the month for July.

The Milwaukee Brewers have had some notable successes with popping collegiate arms in the later arms of the MLB Draft in recent years. Jacob Barnes (14th round, 2011), Brent Suter (31st round, 2012), and Brandon Woodruff (11th round, 2014) have all played roles on the big league club this season. In the minors, meanwhile, Jon Perrin (27th round, 2015) and Quintin Torres-Costa (35th round, 2015) have already shot through the system up to Class-AA this season, and both Jankins and Cameron Roegner (22nd round, 2016) are having success in Wisconsin.

It just goes to show that every pick matters in the MLB Draft. Even in the later rounds, an org can find future setup men (Barnes), swingmen/back end starters (Suter), or even a top pitching prospect if things go well developmentally (Woodruff). Time will tell if Thomas Jankins falls into one of those categories, but based off his physical and statistical profile, he’s certainly a player to keep an eye on going forward.

OF Zach Clark (2017: Age 21)
Ray Montgomery and the Brewers didn’t nab Zach Clark until the 19th round of this past summer’s MLB Draft, but the Mississippian’s skill set was enticing enough for the Brewers to give him an over-slot bonus of $125,000. Clark enjoyed a thoroughly successful junior college career, was a highly praised commit to Alabama, and ranked as Baseball America’s 229th-best draft prospect before choosing to instead make the leap into the professional ranks after being selected 561st overall. He rewarded the club’s good faith by producing a nifty .252/.314/.409 slash (.272 TAv) with 2 home runs and 6 steals in 140 PA in the Arizona League.

According to a review of Milwaukee’s 2016 draft class from The Baseball Draft Report, “Clark’s speed, athleticism, and defensive value put a reasonable floor as a speedy, athletic, valuable defensive backup…What makes Clark so exciting is the upside he’s flashed at the plate.” Clark’s power/speed combination has been favorably compared to first round picks like Delvin Perez, Josh Lowe, and Will Benson, and a player of his ilk isn’t one typically found (much less signed) in the 19th round. The outfielder has exhibited plus-plus speed, plus raw power, and a more advanced feel for contact than one might expect. There’s quite a bit of ways to go in order to actualize those tools, but Clark has the capability to become a productive major leaguer and could be a candidate to make the jump to full season ball in Appleton next year.

RHP Jon Perrin (2017: Age 24)
Jon Perrin was a late-round senior sign in the 27th round of the 2015 MLB Draft after enjoying a modestly successful career at Oklahoma State. Baseball wasn’t his preferred career, as Perrin had dreams of being accepted to Harvard Law and told David Laurila of Fangraphs he would walk away from the game if he had the opportunity to enter the school. Perrin’s dream of becoming a lawyer may not have worked out as he’d hoped, but the massive leaps in development that the big righty has made in the past two seasons could have him well on his way to becoming a major leaguer instead.

Perrin began the year as a 23 year old in low-A, but made quick work of the Midwest League by posting a 1.08 DRA and an outrageous 47:1 K/BB ratio in 36.0 innings. He continued his success after a promotion to Brevard County, where he ultimately spent a bulk of the season; in 110.7 innings for the Manatees, Perrin worked to a 2.66 ERA and 2.60 DRA with 7.7 K/9, 1.5 BB/9, and a 49% ground ball rate. Perrin made one final start in AA to close out the 2016 season and it was a bit of a stinker, but there’s a good chance he’ll be back in Biloxi to begin the 2017 season.

At 6’5″ and 220 lbs, Perrin has the body type to be a durable innings-eater. His arsenal fits right into that mold, as well. According to a BP Eyewitness Report from James Fisher earlier this year, Perrin throws from a three-quarters arm slot that features some deception. His fastball sits in the 88-92 MPH range and touches 93 with light sink, along with a sweeping slider he can get strikeouts with and a changeup that features “downer action” and “average deception.” His repertoire plays up because of Perrin’s outstanding control and command, as he throws plenty of strikes and is able to manipulate the ball within each of the four quadrants of the strike zone.

Fisher grades Perrin with an OFP of 50 with a realistic role of 4th starter/set-up reliever, a report that if it holds true would easily place Perrin within the top 20 or 30 prospects in the organization’s minor league system. It may not be the sexiest profile to dream on, but if Perrin starts well out of the gates next year it wouldn’t at all be surprising to see his quick ascent through the system reach it’s apex at the major league level in 2017.

AAA Colorado Springs Sky Sox (67-71)

MVP: C/1B Josmil Pinto

Pinto spent the entire season with Colorado Springs, splitting time between first base and catcher. The former top-101 prospect posted the highest OPS on the team among players with at least 200 plate appearances while also throwing out 30 percent of attempted base thieves from behind the dish and accruing a sterling 16.4 FRAA (despite a reputation as a subpar defender). Pinto is a minor league free agent after the season, but it might be a good idea for Milwaukee to try and keep the 27 year old around as organizational depth at both catcher and first base.

315 PA || .308/.362/.517 || 11 HR || 0 SB || .282 TAv

Pitcher: LHP Brent Suter

Prior to being called up to the big leagues in August, Suter was undoubtedly the Sky Sox’ best pitcher. Despite a menacing pitching environment in Colorado Springs, the soft-tossing Harvard grad prevented runs as a rate well-below league average and was leading the team in innings pitched at the time of his promotion. Suter has functioned as both a starter and reliever in the minors, but his best role in the big leagues might be as a left-handed specialist out of the bullpen.

110.7 IP || 3.50 ERA || 3.41 FIP || 75 K || 14 BB || 5 HR || 1.29 WHIP || 41% GB

AA Biloxi Shuckers (72-67)

MVP: OF Brett Phillips

It was a down year offensively for most of the Shuckers roster, and Phillips is no exception despite being named the team’s MVP. He saw a significant and concerning increase in his strikeouts leading to a large drop in batting average, though he did take plenty of walks and lead the club with 16 home runs. Some of the sheen has worn off Phillips’ prospect star thanks to his down season and the addition of shiny new prospects through trades, but he still has a chance to be an above-average regular in center field with what’s probably the best outfield arm in the organization.

517 PA || .229/.332/.397 || 16 HR || 12 SB || .274 TAv

Pitcher: RHP Brandon Woodruff

The 23-year old began the year in high-A but eventually wound up leading the Shuckers in innings pitched after a well-deserved early season promotion. Woodruff lead all the minor leagues in strikeouts this year and has started gaining some attention outside of Brewers’ circles, including being frequently mentioned in Fangraphs editor Carson Cistulli’s “Fringe Five” column. He’s a shoo-in for the organization’s minor league pitcher of the year, and some have said he could factor into the big league starting rotation as soon as next season.

113.7 IP || 3.01 ERA || 2.49 FIP || 124 K || 30 BB || 4 HR || 1.04 WHIP || 49% GB

High-A Brevard County Manatees (40-97)

MVP: 1B/3B Dustin DeMuth

A fifth-round senior sign from the 2014 draft, DeMuth has hit rather well since reaching the professional ranks (though he’s been old for most of his leagues). The Manatees had a season to forget; however, DeMuth was one of the lone bright spots on offense, overcoming a slow start to league the club in OPS and home runs before earning a promotion to AA Biloxi to finish out the season. He’s played a little bit of third base, second base, and corner outfield during his professional career, but spent almost all year at first base in 2016, and could perhaps have a true corner utility profile at the big league level.

411 PA || .287/.358/.404 || 6 HR || 2 SB || .287 TAv

Pitcher: RHP Jon Perrin

If you love to root for late-round success stories, then Perrin is the man for you. The 27th-round pick from 2015 began the year by dominating the Midwest League before being moved up and dominating the Florida State League and earning a start in AA to close out the year. Perrin’s outstanding control should help him make it to the big leagues, where his three-pitch mix could help him become a back-end starter.

110.7 IP || 2.60 ERA || 2.66 FIP || 95 K || 19 BB || 4 HR || 1.15 WHIP || 49% GB

Low-A Wisconsin Timber Rattlers (71-69)

MVP: 2B/SS Isan Diaz

Diaz came over from Arizona this past winter and it’s safe to say he made a good first impression on his new organization. The 20-year old infielder showed off impressive power and an advanced approach at the plate while tearing through the Midwest League, and should undoubtedly be named the club’s minor league player of the year. He split this season between shortstop and second base, though his long-term home will be at the keystone. Diaz should be a solid defender there, rounding out a potential first-division regular profile.

587 PA || .264/.358/.469 || 20 HR || 11 SB || .290 TAv

Pitcher: RHP Jordan Yamamoto

Marcos Diplan was on-track for this award before a mid-season promotion to Brevard County, so I’ll go with Yamamoto for this award after leading the T-Rats in innings pitched while posting solid run prevention numbers and even better peripheral statistics. Baseball Prospectus scout James Fisher noted that Yamamoto throws a four-pitch mix but can struggle with command, adding his likely role is more like organizational depth. Maybe if the command can improve, there’s a potential back-end starter in there somewhere.

134.3 IP || 3.82 ERA || 2.53 FIP || 152 K || 31 BB || 6 HR || 1.20 WHIP || 48% GB

Rookie Helena Brewers (28-46)

MVP: 1B Ronnie Gideon

Another late-rounder to root for, Gideon absolutely throttled Pioneer League pitching after being chosen in the 23rd round out of Texas A&M in this summer’s draft. He finished with the league lead in home runs and was eighth in OPS while playing first base for Helena. I don’t know how much of a ceiling there is here when one considers that Gideon was a collegiate player who was old for the league, but home run power is becoming a rarer commodity in the game. If Gideon keeps hitting boatloads of home runs, he’ll keep getting chances to advance.

245 PA || .321/.371/.638 || 17 HR || 1 SB || .329 TAv

Pitcher: RHP Jordan Desguin

Desguin was Milwaukee’s 36th-round pick out of Florida Gulf Coast in 2015 and he’s posted solid run prevention numbers at each stop as a pro. He began this year by tossing 40 quality innings for Helena in an environment that heavily favors offense before earning a promotion to low-A. Desguin began his collegiate career as a shortstop and has only been pitching for about three years, but Fisher doesn’t think he has much more room to grow before settling in as organizational depth.

40.0 IP || 3.60 ERA || 4.45 FIP || 40 K || 11 BB || 3 HR || 1.12 WHIP || 39% GB

Arizona Brewers (24-29)

MVP: C/1B Gabriel Garcia

The 18 year old Garcia was drafted in the 14th round in this year’s draft as a catcher. However, Garcia spent most of his time in the AZL at first base, though he also appeared behind the plate, at third base, and shortstop. He slugged 18 extra base hits in 37 games, and his OPS was more than 100 points higher than anyone else on the team. He showed good power in junior college, too, and if he can stay behind the plate it’s an intriguing profile.

150 PA || .300/.393/.500 || 2 HR || 4 SB || .325 TAv

Pitcher: RHP Emerson Gibbs

The Brewers took Gibbs in the 33rd round out of Tulane in this year’s draft, and he looked dominant in the AZL before getting promoted to Helena to finish the season. He probably should have dominated, since he was nearly a year and a half older than the league, but it’s still nice to see strong numbers on a team that generally struggled with pitching performances. Gibbs throws a fastball/curveball combo with good control but at this point it’s hard to see him as more than intriguing depth with a potential relief profile.

27.0 IP || 2.00 ERA || 2.31 FIP || 29 K || 3 BB || 0 HR || 1.11 WHIP || 56% GB

Dominican Summer League Brewers (26-44)

MVP: C/1B Moises Perez

This was Perez’s first season as a professional at age 17, and he made it a pretty good one. He split time at first base an catcher, though a 17 percent caught stealing rate from behind the plate might mean he’s better suited for first. Perez lead the club in home runs and OPS and will be hoping to make the jump stateside next season.

175 PA || .226/.339/.438 || 7 HR || 5 SB || .272 TAv

Pitcher: RHP Alberto Paulino

This was also Paulino’s first professional season, and he was dominant in the DSL while serving as the Brewers closer. He saved five games and let in just one earned run all season, but at age 25 he was nearly six years old for the league. Paulino might’ve earned a job playing baseball somewhere next season, but there’s not likely to be much of a future in baseball.

23.2 IP || 0.38 ERA || 2.06 FIP || 23 K || 7 BB || 0 HR || 0.97 WHIP || 50% GB

Related Reading:
3 Up 3 Down: Gatewood / Nottingham / Phillips

Key Promotions
Recently, some of the most intriguing arms in the Brewers system received promotions.

RHP Marcos Diplan has been transferred to Brevard Cty. RHP Kaleb Earls has been placed on the DL. RHP Trey Supak transferred to Wisconsin

— Brewers Player Dev (@BrewersPD) July 10, 2016

#Brewers have promoted RHP Angel Ventura to @BiloxiShuckers and RHP Freddy Peralta to @BCManatees.

— Tom (@Haudricourt) July 9, 2016

This year’s A Wisconsin affiliate has simply been stacked with arms, so much so that one might have forgotten about Marcos Diplan. Within the system, Miguel Diaz and Jon Perrin stormed the stage (although these RHP are both interesting for different reasons) as homegrown arms, and Freddy Peralta (also in Brevard County now) stepped forward to put a face with those names returned in the Adam Lind trade. So, Diplan stood as one of the earliest “rebuilding” trade returns in Milwaukee’s system, but the teenager struck out 89 of 295 batters faced. Questions about Diplan’s size and secondary stuff at times lead one to expect a bullpen profile for the righty, but those huge strike out profiles make even that outcome appear more exciting.

Trey Supak was something of a lottery ticket return as a part of the Jason Rogers trade, even if he ultimately has a frame and some tools worth projecting. Recovering from a previous injury, Supak faced a potentially brief 2016 campaign, but the righty has impressed by making quick work of R Helena: an 11 strikeout / 1 walk campaign preceded Supak’s promotion to Wisconsin, where the 20 year old will look to prove himself against older, full season talent. While Diplan and Supak have completely different frames, development patterns, and injury histories, it’s somewhat tempting to place Supak’s risk category in the same realm as Diplan: you’ve got to dream on the tools as a starter, but there’s still a lot to like even in a relief profile.

In the season of Junior Guerra’s stunning MLB success, non-linear developmental patterns should become an area of further analysis. While Angel Ventura’s path has not meandered in the same way that Guerra’s did, the righty spent three seasons in the Brewers Dominican Summer League before coming to the United States. It’s easy to dismiss Ventura as an “old” prospect in some sense, then, but the righty has consistently posted solid strike out rates in both A Wisconsin and A+ Brevard County. Now, while he’s working in AA Biloxi, the 6’2″ prospect continues to serve as underrated organizational depth, this time only a couple of steps away from the MLB. While all eyes are rightfully on Orlando Arcia to officially judge the retooled Milwaukee International system a success, Ventura could also serve as a success story and a lesson about patience in player development.

Three Up
Jon Perrin, A+ Brevard County (Kyle Lesniewski): While Brewers fans might rightfully focus on the aggressive assignment for RHP Cody Ponce out of the 2015 draft, his 27th round counterpart Jon Perrin has forced his way to the same level in 2016. Kyle Lesniewski previously featured Perrin at BPMilwaukee, tempering expectations from his A Wisconsin dominance by noting the righty’s age and rotational profile. Now, with eleven games under his belt in Brevard County, the extreme strike out / walk profile looks good (19 percent / five percent). While it’s tough to lay off of the Mike Fiers comparisons given Perrin’s size, depth status, and draft profile, one must watch the righty’s flyball rate, as that may be the most important comparison and aspect of Perrin’s game to define his advancement.

Franly Mallen, R Helena (Nicholas Zettel): Before there was Gilbert Lara, Milwaukee’s big International smash, there was Franly Mallen, a much less hyped but arguably as interesting prospect for the Brewers system. When Mallen was signed, reports did not necessarily highlight a standout tool, although some scouts reportedly looked for projectable power. Last year was arguably a type of breakout for Mallen, in the sense that he received one of the most aggressive promotions out of the Dominican Summer League from the Brewers front office. Mallen has done nothing but rake in Helena, boasting TAv of .366 and .311 (at age 19, now, no less). The youngster is already off of shortstop, which could speak more to the jampacked shortstop position in the system than Mallen’s glove, but it remains to be seen if this move is permanent. Even so fans can salivate at the Javier Betancourt / Wendell Rijo / Isan Diaz / Franly Mallen potential pipeline at second base, if that move is permanent.

Nate Orf, AAA Colorado Springs (James Fisher): At every turn, when the Brewers system improved in 2015, most of the hype went to players like Orlando Arcia and Jorge Lopez. But Nate Orf, an undrafted free agent signed by the Brewers in 2013, also carried his production to AA Biloxi last year, earning a spot in the Arizona Fall League. James Fisher called Orf a “utility guy that can really hit.  Under the radar guy that will be a big leaguer, [and] deserves some recognition.” True to form, Orf is posting a .294 TAv while playing second base, third base, and shortstop in Colorado Springs. Should the Brewers make as many trades as one might expect during the deadline crunch, fans and analysts should look out for the 26 year old Orf in Brewers blue, solidifying the multifaceted infielder as a true Bruce Seid era success story.

Three Down
Gilbert Lara, R Helena (Nicholas Zettel): It seems roundly unfair to place Lara in this category (if anything, it’s an argument against prospect bonus hype): the 18 year old only has instructional ball and 344 plate appearances in the USA as his professional experience, and has a long way to go to reach his toolsy projections. BaseballProspectus ranked Lara fifth in the Brewers system due to his immense talent, with power being the calling card here. Those tools simply have not shown up in games yet, as Lara works to define his plate discipline and approach.

Wei-Chung Wang, AA Biloxi (James Fisher): Don’t look now, but just as soon as we brainstormed this feature, Wei-Chung Wang looks to be on another second half surge. James noted that Wang’s stuff is backing up, and also noted that the strike out / walk profile is not ideal. Once again, Wang has his work cut out for him, as the southpaw will arguably need to stabilize his up-again, down-again organizational status as he tries to convince the Milwaukee front office to protect him from the Rule 5 draft this autumn.

Clint Coulter, A+ Brevard County (Kyle Lesniewski): Last year, some fans and analysts clamored about the placement of Coulter within year-end prospect lists, as the catcher-turned-right fielder’s stock fell. The rough times in Brevard County continued in 2016. This time around, one might point to Coulter’s notably below average competition (.673 opposing OPS, placing Coulter’s competition ahead of only 25% of Florida Southern regulars) and age as additional question marks for the prospect. The silver lining is that Coulter’s bat improved in June and is currently solidly hot in July (.311 AVG with five extra base hits in 50 PA), so hopefully Coulter has a redemption storyline on target.

One such player is 23-year-old hurler Jon Perrin. The big righty was a 27th-round draft pick in 2015 by the Brewers, selected 811th overall after completing his senior season of an up-and-down career at Oklahoma State that saw him post a 3.18 ERA and 200 strikeouts in 240.0 innings pitched. Normally a late-round pick, especially one who was drafted as a college senior, wouldn’t be worth following all that closely. However Perrin’s body of work since signing with Milwaukee has made him nearly impossible to ignore.

After a brief debut at rookie-level Helena in 2015, Perrin was promoted to low-A Wisconsin. His run-prevention numbers in Appleton weren’t especially noteworthy as he wound up logging a 4.31 ERA in in 39.2 innings pitched. He was hurt by a .347 BABIP against, however, and his FIP of 2.54 was much more impressive. Perhaps most exciting of all was the fact that he posted a 34:4 K/BB ratio while allowing just one home run with a 47 percent ground ball rate.

Perrin began the 2016 season once again with the Timber Rattlers and was simply dominant from the get-go. Showcasing outstanding control, Perrin allowed just a 2.50 ERA in his first six starts covering an even 36.0 innings pitched. Perrin struck out 47 of the 140 batters that he faced (33.5 percent), including starts with 10 and 14 Ks. Perhaps even more incredibly, Perrin walked only one (!) opposing hitter and it wasn’t until his sixth and final start with the Timber Rattlers. He allowed just one home run while holding hitters to 48 percent ground ball rate, allowing him to work to an incredible 1.33 FIP.

Perrin received a well-deserved promotion to high-A Brevard County on May 10th, and he’s currently a member of the Manatees starting rotation. His first start was another terrific one that saw him allow just one earned run across six innings while striking out four and walking one. His latest start with Brevard County was his first bit of blemish on the year, however, and he struggled with his command while allowing four runs and walking four batters in four innings.

Perrin is an imposing figure on the mound, standing at 6’5″ and tipping the scales at around 220 lbs. He throws a from a three-quarters arm slot with a fastball that sits in the low-90s and features plenty of movement. Video snippets posted by the Brewers Prospects Twitter give fans an early glimpse:

Love this strikeout from Jon Perrin. Serious movement on that fastball. #TRats https://t.co/JVxQqU4k7W

— Brewers Prospects (@BrewerProspect) May 2, 2016

He complements his fastball with a slider that gets sharp downward movement and breaks away from righties as well as a changeup. He has gotten plenty of swings-and-misses on the slider and can spot the changeup for strikes.

Jon Perrin K's swinging & looking #TRats https://t.co/q2quwZcjdw

— Brewers Prospects (@BrewerProspect) May 7, 2016

It’s important to keep in mind that at 23 years old, Perrin was a good year older than his average opponent while pitching in the Midwest League. A good bit of his domination is likely due to using his advanced command to take advantage of young hitters that are still learning the strike zone. Obviously one cannot totally ignore a 47:1 K/BB ratio, but it’ll be interesting to see how he responds to more age-appropriate competition in the Florida State League.

Expectations for Perrin’s future should therefore be tempered at this point. He’s more of a back-end starter/organizational depth type player, but for a player who was selected in the 27th round of the draft that would still be excellent value to be realized. Of course, that’s if Perrin even plans to continue his baseball career much longer.

Jon graduated OK State with a bachelor’s degree in history and spoke recently with David Laurila of Fangraphs about his future aspirations. Perrin took the LSAT over the offseason and in his Twitter bio, he describes himself as a “Current Milwaukee Brewers farmhand. Future Lawyer.” The Olathe, Kansas native told Laurila:

“I don’t think it’s going to happen, but if I get into Harvard, I’m probably going to be out of here. I love the game, but I think I can do more good in this world with a degree from Harvard Law School than I ever could playing baseball.”

I’m sure that while the Brewers would no doubt support Perrin if his law-school dreams are realized, they are selfishly hoping that his baseball career will continue and eventually bring him to the mound at Miller Park.