Our Milwaukee Brewers sent eight representatives to the Fall League to suit up for Peoria (and later, a ninth player headed down to pitch for Mesa) so let’s take a moment to recap how well those players performed in the so-called “prospect finishing school.”

LHP Daniel Brown

Brown, a fastball-slider lefty who works in the low-to-mid-90s, enjoyed an excellent AFL. In nine appearances he covered 12.0 innings, allowing only eight hits, four walks, and a 3.00 Earned Run Average (ERA). Deserved Run Average thought his performance was nearly perfect; his DRA came in at 0.12 for a DRA- of 2.5! (DRA- measures DRA in league context, with 100 as average and the lower the number, the better).

RHP Bowdien Derby

The Javelinas used Derby as a starter in the AFL, and he toed the slab to begin seven games while logging 26.3 innings pitched. He did so with a modest 4.78 ERA, though DRA- (86) still assessed Derby as 14 percent better than the average pitcher on the circuit. Derby’s 18:9 strikeout:walk ratio wasn’t exactly inspiring, and we’ll see if the AFL performance that followed up a decent season as a swingman for Colorado Springs is enough to convince some team to pick him in this year’s Rule 5 Draft. Derby was left unprotected by the Brewers.

RHP Jon Olczak

Olczak turned in one of the most stellar campaigns of any reliever on the AFL circuit this year. He logged a 1.50 ERA across 12.0 innings, striking out 13 while allowing only eight hits and five walks. DRA- (45) valued his work as 55 percent better than his league-average cohorts. This comes after a terrific 73 DRA- in 56.3 innings for Double-A Biloxi during the regular season, and it wouldn’t come as a surprise to find out that the fastball/slider slinging Olczak (who sits 92-94 MPH) winds up generating plenty of Rule 5 interest in advance of next month’s draft.

RHP Miguel Sanchez

The 24 year old Sanchez put together a surprising pop-up season in 2018, advancing from Class A-Advanced all the way up to Triple-A before earning a shot at the Fall League. He continued to be effective in Arizona, posting a 3.60 ERA in 10.0 innings. He struck out eight while walking three, generating ground balls at a 65 percent rate. DRA- (74) saw his performance as well above average for the league.

RHP Aaron Wilkerson

After a truncated regular season split between Triple-A and the big leagues, the Brewers sent Wilkerson as a late addition to the AFL so that he could stretch back out in advance of pitching in winter ball in the Dominican Republic. Wilkerson joined the Mesa Solar Sox and appeared in three games, tossing four scoreless innings with three strikeouts and three walks.

C Mario Feliciano

Injuries limited Feliciano to just 46 games between the Arizona Rookie League and Class-A Advanced in 2018, so the Brewers assigned him to the Fall League to try and catch him up with some addition reps. It didn’t work out, though, as injuries unfortunately halted Feliciano’s progress once again. After only two games and six plate appearances (that included a hit and two walks), he was sidelined with discomfort in his throwing shoulder that led to arthroscopic surgery at the beginning of November. He should be ready to go again come next spring.

UTIL Weston Wilson

A jack-of-all-trades utility man, Wilson was highly impressive during the AFL campaign, batting .364 average /.462 on-base /.636 slugging percentage in 39 plate appearances for a True Average of .387. He clubbed a double, a triple, and two home runs, and even stole a pair of bases, too. A former 17th-round draft pick, more and more are coming around to the idea that the 24 year old Wilson has the ability to be a big leaguer after his terrific season between Class A-Advanced, Double-A, and the Arizona Fall League in 2018.

OF Trent Grisham

This former first-round pick, on the other hand, has plenty of people doubting that he’ll ever make it to The Show based on what he’s been showing lately (and really since being picked in 2015). Grisham’s passive approach has led to walks aplenty as a professional, but not much in the way of batting average of hard contact. Grisham hit .133/.304/.133 with 17 strikeouts in 57 AFL plate appearances, leading Mark Anderson of the BP Prospect Team to comment recently that “his comfort in the box and overall feel for hitting are seemingly non-existent at this point.”

2B Keston Hiura

Hiura is Milwaukee’s top prospect for good reason. Often described as a “hitting savant,” Hiura led the AFL in hits (31), RBI (33), and total bases (54). His five home runs were one off the league lead and his .934 OPS ranked sixth overall. Hiura’s overall slash was good enough for a .352 True Average, and he was so good so often that the BP Prospect Team seemed almost annoyed that they needed to keep writing about him. Hiura’s tremendous performance helped net not only the AFL Championship trophy, but earned him some well-deserved personal hardware, too.

#Brewers‘ hitting machine Keston Hiura is the 2018 @MLBazFallLeague MVP after hitting .323 with 5 homers and a league-leading 33 RBIs in 23 games. More from @wboor: https://t.co/Qbc6keDe54 pic.twitter.com/f47t6zO7fR

— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) November 17, 2018

Depending on which moves David Stearns and company make this offseason, and how and where Travis Shaw fits into the equation, the middle of the infield figures to be an area of special interest. Young and intriguing players abound, with still more waiting in the wings. Highlighted below are a few of the players most likely to impact up the middle next season.

Major Leagues

Orlando Arcia, SS

Arcia arrived in 2016 shouldering high expectations. He was Milwaukee’s best prospect since Ryan Braun came along in 2007 and changed the history of the franchise. Arcia produced a very nice age-22 season in 2017, finishing with 3.4 Wins Above Replacement Player (WARP) and vaulting to the top of Milwaukee’s list of talents aged 25 and under, just ahead of Domingo Santana. Times have changed.

Arcia regressed to a .214 True Average (TAv) and 0.0 WARP in 2018, losing playing time to a handful of low-profile players and heading into the All-Star Break below the Mendoza line. After some time sorting out his swing in the minors, he roared back to life in the second half, clawing playing time back from the just-imported Jonathan Schoop and helping to lead the team through their playoff charge.

Arcia is still just 24 years old, is a ton of fun to watch on the infield, and has offered fans glimpses of his offensive potential over the last two years. He’ll be starting at shortstop next spring, perhaps with a somewhat shorter leash than he had at the start of 2018.

Travis Shaw, 2B

Shaw famously crossed over to the right side of the infield at the trade deadline, freeing up the hot corner for Mike Moustakas. He’s 6’4” and 230 pounds, but showed solid glove work and good instincts at the keystone, especially for someone learning on the fly. As lines between positions blur around the league, the big man could see more time at second base in 2019.

Shaw recorded 32 home runs in just under 500 at bats in 2018, marking his second year in a row reaching that milestone. He showed a nice approach at the plate, drawing 78 walks to offset his 108 strikeouts. He also topped the 4-WARP plateau for the second straight season, making him the kind of cheap, under-the-radar star that franchises like Milwaukee need in order to sustain success.

There may be more in the tank. Shaw is still in the midst of his physical prime, and recorded an average exit velocity in 2018 that was right in line with his career norms. Even so, his BABIP dipped 70 points from 2017. Some of this can be attributed to an uptick in fly balls. But if Shaw can add back a few points to his batting average, and perhaps decrease his reliance on pulling the ball in certain counts, 2019 could be the year that he breaks out as one of the better-rounded sluggers in the league.

Jonathan Schoop, 2B/SS

Schoop enjoyed a monster 2017 in Baltimore, accumulating 4.7 WARP and whacking 32 home runs while providing surprisingly good defense at second base. 2018 didn’t go as well, particularly after the trade that sent him to Milwaukee in exchange for Jonathan Villar (still hurts), Luis Ortiz, and Jean Carmona. That’s a bit of a haul, but Schoop was hot, and he’s been a special bat in the past. Milwaukee didn’t get that player; Schoop struggled to a .202/.246/.331 line in 46 games for the Brewers.

Schoop is controllable for 2019, though it’s less clear whether Milwaukee intends to offer him a contract. MLB Trade Rumors pegs his salary at $10.1 million in his final year of arbitration, a hefty sum for a small market team to spend on a player with plenty of question marks. Never a patient hitter, Schoop relies on the quality of his contact to generate value with the bat. Worryingly, his exit velocity, launch angle, hard hit percentage, and barrel percentage were all down in 2018, per Statcast; Schoop actually outperformed his Expected Weighted On-Base Average (xWOBA).

Losing three players for a few weeks of sub-replacement performance would hurt; so would paying $10 M for a player who could end up on the bench. 2019 will be a crucial year for Schoop, no matter whose jersey he ends up wearing.

Hernán Pérez, UTIL

Pérez, 28 next Opening Day, continued to slip a little after an exciting 2016 campaign. Even so, he provided average offense (.258 TAv) and credible defense at seven different positions. There’s value in that. Pérez didn’t manage quite as much power in 2018 as he did the previous two seasons, and his K/BB ratio is as unseemly as ever. He shouldn’t be anyone’s idea of a starting player on a playoff-caliber team at this point, but he’s a fine option to have around in case of injury or early-season ineffectiveness. Projected at a reasonable $2.7 million next year by MLB Trade Rumors, he’s a good guy to have around the back end of the roster.

Tyler Saladino, UTIL

Saladino made some noise upon his initial promotion to Milwaukee, batting .298 in the first half of the season. But he was injured in May, missed all of June, and looked fairly awful in July and September. So in the end, he wound up with a pretty Saladino-esque line of .246/.302/.398. He’s 29 years old, and is projected to make $1.0 million next year by MLB Trade Rumors. He had a nice year in 2016, running up 1.4 WARP in half a season with the White Sox. That’s looking like the peak of his big league career at this point.

Minor Leagues

Mauricio Dubon, 2B/SS

The 2018 season could have gone very differently for Mauricio Dubon. The young infielder tore through his first 27 games in Triple-A, batting .343/.348/.574 with some nice doubles power and not too many whiffs. Then he tore through his ACL, and missed the rest of the season. It was a case of bad timing for Dubon and the Brewers; Orlando Arcia and Eric Sogard were struggling with the big club, and Dubon might have been the first man up. Instead, he’ll aim to occupy that position in 2019.

Dubon makes a lot of contact, and routinely runs strikeout rates in the low-to-mid-teens. He’s quick on the base paths, though not a tremendous threat to steal. And he’s teased some intriguing power at various points in his minor league career, though it tends to come and go. Dubon is a capable defender at shortstop, though he fits better at second base long-term. One knock on his game: He doesn’t walk much. Even so, the floor here is something like Hernán Pérez, perhaps with less ability to roam the outfield grass (though it wouldn’t surprise me to see him shagging some extra fly balls in spring training). As for the ceiling? Well…

Keston Hiura, 2B

Keston Hiura is looking more and more like a blue-chip prospect at the keystone. There’s little remaining doubt about his bat, though he’s oddly susceptible to strikeouts for someone who projects as a Grade 60 or better hitter (on a scale where 50 is average). As many of you know, Hiura combined for a .293 batting average, 13 home runs, and 34 doubles in his first full minor league season, reaching Double-A along the way. Were it not for a minor thumb injury suffered in July, those numbers all may have been better; Hiura’s performance dipped considerably in late July and August. Currently, he’s smacking the ball around to the tune of a .333 average and 30 RBIs in the Arizona Fall League. It’s been said that the man can hit.

Happily, he’s answering questions about his work in the dirt, too. Through last season and into the AFL, Hiura has looked like an average defender at second, maybe a tick below. That’s a great outcome for someone who’s missed so many reps. If Hiura continues to progress at all defensively, he should be able to handle himself just fine at the keystone.

Hiura looks like a threat to hit .300 with 20-25 home runs and a mess of doubles. Even now, he could probably muster a decent-enough slash line against big league pitching. He’ll be up soon; how long the Brewers wait on a promotion may ultimately depend on how well whoever’s making the majority of big league starts is performing.

Free Agents

There are a number of interesting names on the free agent market that could help shore up Milwaukee’s infield depth. That’s particularly true if the Brewers buy into Travis Shaw at second and cast around for upgrades at third. Mike Moustakas is a natural target there, as he performed ably for the Brewers down the stretch and quietly offers average skills on both sides of the ball. He’ll likely get a multi-year deal this time out, but the commitment shouldn’t be too costly, in either dollars or years.

Jed Lowrie, Marwin Gonzalez, Josh Harrison, and Neil Walker could all help at either second or third base. Any of those names could sign for between two and four years, with Gonzalez probably representing the best and most expensive option. But even Josh Donaldson may not be out of reach, depending on how leery teams are of his age and injury history.

Should the Brewers feel that Hiura will be ready to make an impact by mid-season, they could be tempted to simply bridge the gap with a cheap one-year deal. The most logical name, in that case, may be Ian Kinsler’s (Kinsler was also mentioned as a possible target by Andrew Salzman in a piece earlier this month.) Kinsler doesn’t offer too much with the bat anymore, but he still provides solid defense. He turns 37 next year, and will likely settle for a one-year deal.

A quick recap on roster rules: the non-tender deadline this offseason is November 30. By that date, teams have to offer a contract to all players on the 40-man roster with fewer than six years of service time. If the team does not offer a contract to a player, then he becomes a free agent. Because Jonathan Schoop has 5.027 years of Major League service time and has not signed any extension, the Brewers have until November 30 to decide if they want to retain him for next season.

Jonathon Schoop is the greatest young power hitting second baseman of all time. There’s a lot to unpack there, but if we wanted to measure by players twenty-six and under who have played at least fifty percent of their games at second base, he’s hit the most home runs. However, impressive raw home run totals don’t necessarily mean a player is a star; even with that fun fact to his name, Schoop’s bat completely fell apart in 2018 after showing so much promise in 2017.

As a twenty-five year old second basemen in 2017, Schoop had a .280 True Average (TAv) and produced 37.6 Value Over Replacement Player (VORP), which estimates the number of runs Schoop produced beyond a freely available minor league replacement. PECOTA pegged him for a regression with .256 TAv and 15.8 VORP, yet his numbers sunk lower. Schoop’s plate discipline remained remarkably similar. His swing rate rose four percentage points to 56.8 percent, while his contact rate (71.4) and swinging strike rate (28.6) remained virtually unchanged from 2017, so his strikeout percentage only rose from twenty-one percent to twenty-three percent. The biggest difference is that his walk rate sunk from 5.2 percent to 3.8 percent, both of which are below average. Schoop’s walk rate would have placed him in the bottom five of all qualified hitters if he’d had enough at bats.

As I noted back in August, there was no smoking gun on Schoop’s poor performance at the plate, he just wasn’t hitting the ball as well. From that article’s publication date on August 13^th, Statcast numbers only slightly recovered. Even with some improvement his barrel percentage, exit velocity, launch angle, and hard hit percentage all were career lows. His expected WOBA placed in the bottom 1 percent of all hitters.

The Brewers traded for a player they probably saw as a buy low candidate. If they elect to offer Schoop arbitration, it likely means that they see something in his 2018 performance that they believe can be corrected to get him back to his 2017 numbers.

One projection for Schoop’s potential arbitration award places him at a $10.1M salary in 2019, which would be 3^rd on the team in salary, just above Christian Yelich, in case you needed another reminder about how great that contract is for the Brewers. The only other potential second basemen on the 40-man roster, presuming that Shaw is back at third base on Opening Day, are Tyler Saladino, Hernan Perez and Mauricio Dubon. None of these players are projected as a starting caliber player on a contending team.] in 2019.

The most intriguing internal option to replace Schoop would be Keston Hiura. Our mother site’s midseason top 50 prospects list had Hiura at number five and claimed that Hiura was “basically major-league ready” back when it was posted in mid-July. If the team agrees with the assessment, then he could be the starting at second by May 1, with service time manipulation likely preventing him from starting the season with the big-league club. While he’s considered a bat-first prospect, if the Brewers could shift and game plan their way into making Travis Shaw league average at second, fans shouldn’t be too worried about Hiura.

The Brewers could also look at potential free agents who could sign a one-year deal and provide flexibility in case the team wants to wait on Hiura (or if he proves not to be ready). Ian Kinsler had a terrible post-trade run with the Red Sox capped with baserunning and fielding blunders in Game 3 of the World Series. However, he provided above average defense according to Fielding Runs Above Average (FRAA) (even if it wasn’t quite Gold Glove worthy). If you squint, his offense wasn’t terrible in 2018! From his nadir on May 28 through his trade to Boston on July 30, he slashed .286/.349/.518, which is above his career line of .271/.339/.443. One wouldn’t expect a two-month hot streak to be his baseline production going forward, but it does show he has some life left in his bat, and could serve a useful role as a bridge to Hiura.

The Brewers are lucky to be in the position where they don’t need to double down on the Schoop trade. It would hurt the front office’s external perception to write off the acquisition as a total loss after three months of poor production, but I don’t believe that’s going to factor into their calculation. Milwaukee is always going to operate on a limited budget, but if the team decides its best choices are Schoop and Hiura, two different budget issues arise. Is the team willing to keep Schoop at more than $10 M when there’s a non-zero chance he’s not worth a roster spot? If Hiura shines in spring training and proves he’s the best player for the team, are they willing to ignore service time considerations and have him start the season with the team? If not, who would cover the gap of at least two weeks? Milwaukee’s front office has a few weeks to make these decisions, but whichever direction they turn will shed light on their internal evaluations of the players in question.

Stearns just loudly answered that question this trade deadline.

What is fascinating about each of these trades is that they are fantastic in the sense of bolstering an MLB roster, in order to ensure that this stretch run features as few weaknesses as possible, while also potentially being over-pays in each case. Yet it should be stressed that these overpays are palatable for several reasons: the Brewers maintain a largely controllable roster that is also relatively inexpensive; the Brewers have a relatively large set of players that have been minor leaguers long enough to need potential 40-man roster protection entering 2019; and, perhaps most importantly, there is an incredible amount of role risk involved with each player. These trades should provide grounds for further analysis into when and how potential overpays are helpful to a team, and they should certainly provide further evidence that WARP/$ is not the sole determination of a trade’s potential value or impact.

Grading the System: 2016 || 2017

• Make no mistake about it, in terms of developing multiple quality pitches, command, and velocity, Luis Ortiz could potentially have the best pitching role for the Brewers system; there was a time, two years ago even, where it would not have been absurd for Ortiz to fight for a top tier pitching role in the prospect ranking cycle (and, really, it was not absurd). But Ortiz has been around forever in the advanced minors, it seems, without working full seasons. For example, the injury-fighting righty has 225 innings at Double-A without working 100 innings in a season, and with 68 innings at the 2018 deadline he could potentially miss 100 innings once again. If Ortiz can take his next step forward in the Orioles’ system, he is absolutely a more valuable asset, in terms of roster surplus, than Jonathan Schoop (and it is not close!!!), but that strong 60 Overall Future Potential (OFP) / 50 likely grade entering 2017 looks much more improbable. Ortiz is eligible for the Rule 5 draft for the 2019 season and almost certainly must be protected by the Orioles.

• Jean Carmona just made the jump stateside for the Brewers in 2018, and thus remains a full four levels away from the MLB. Additionally, Carmona might even be another year away from a clearly defined MLB potential role. In this regard, I do not envy the job of MLB scouts and analytics personnel, as it’s not entirely clear for me how I would price Carmona’s potential future value in terms of long-term systemic development.

• At BP Milwaukee, Kyle Lesniewski describe the roles and risks associated with both Kodi Medeiros and Wilber Perez. Medeiros could become an impact reliever at the MLB level, and it’s not unlikely that some observers still believe that he could start in some capacity, as there will always be hold outs for that sort of role. Given Medeiros’s delivery and command profile, however, as well as his fastball, Lesniewski outlines the difficulties that Medeiros may have for reaching even an impact reliever profile. Medeiros is eligible for the Rule 5 draft entering the 2019 season, and almost certainly must be protected by the White Sox, while Perez had yet to play stateside in the Brewers system.

• Finally, I already detailed the roles and surplus value for Brett Phillips and Jorge Lopez, so I will not go into too much detail here. However, I will add that of each of the prospects included in this midseason deals, Phillips is arguably the most likely to have MLB floor and ceiling roles that both surpass the value of the trade return (which is not a knock against Mike Moustakas, he simply might only be in Milwaukee for a couple of months). With a prospect such as Corey Ray coming on strong in Double-A Biloxi, not to mention the considerable development of Troy Stokes Jr. at the advanced level as well, Milwaukee cannot necessarily lose sleep over trading away a depth outfielder from their stacked group when they are fighting a close divisional deficit and leading the National League Wild Card race.

So, readers will witness a couple of recurring facts in these trades: the Brewers largely traded away players that must be protected for 2019 to avoid their loss via the Rule 5 draft, or players with little-to-no stateside development experience (and thus years to reach MLB), and/or players with roles that may be replicated within a year. One need not believe that a player like Stokes will surpass Phillips, in terms of overall ceiling, to see the value of the young prospect’s potential to fill an MLB depth position in 2019. Phillips himself may not have had an opportunity in 2019 to take such a role. The same logic might apply to Quintin Torres-Costa and Bubba Derby. This should not be construed to mean that these current system prospects are categorically better than Phillips / Medeiros / Lopez; in fact, I would have ranked each of that trio ahead of their potential 2019 depth replacements. But once again, since systemic development, contending windows, and player development cycles are now orbiting a club that is contending for consecutive seasons (and the foreseeable future, hopefully), if it costs system depth roles to improve MLB weaknesses, the Brewers have to eat the risk of losing those ceilings.

I like when MLB trades can simply be called good baseball moves. For all the rebuilding narratives in Baltimore, Kansas City, and Chicago, the White Sox, Royals, and Orioles front offices arguably made sensible trades with quality returns that both have long and short time horizons and development cycles. Milwaukee is working as a true contender without trading from their most elite potential prospect stash. This is good all around.

Stearns priced out these converging development cycles and adroitly moved the future role risk to address an offense that absolutely needed help for a serious contending run. Just the other day I wrote, “At worst, Travis Shaw has simply begun a potential shift over to the right side of the infield, where he might serve as a viable first base option for 2019 should the Brewers and Moustakas exercise his mutual option for 2019,” without thinking that a realistic move to first base for Shaw could occur as early as this week. Now, with Jonathan Schoop in the mix for second base and Jesus Aguilar slumping, Shaw becomes a strong side platoon option at 1B to form a serious infield unit:

This infield could open 2019 should Stearns consider keeping both Moustakas and Schoop, and now the talk can turn to development cycles once more. While the Brewers continue to season second baseman Keston Hiura at the most advanced levels of the minor leagues, Schoop basically serves as an upgrade over the Jonathan Villar gamble (gambling that he’ll return to his 2016 form), thus giving the Brewers a quality starting option while Hiura completes his minor league development. While Hiura’s bat is arguably ready for the MLB, and has been mentioned as a potential MLB option by Baseball Prospectus in their latest Top 50 list, the infielder may need more work in the field after missing significant fielding development time due to an extended elbow injury. Once Hiura is ready in 2019, a Schoop / Hiura mix simply extends the #TeamDepth mantra, and the same can arguably said for the remainder of the infield.

Entering 2018, the Brewers system took a step back in terms of organizational rankings, due to a series of developmental setbacks for key prospects, MLB graduations, and trades. I began to highlight this during last year’s “Grading the System” feature, but as one can never predict baseball, the development cycles and potential OFP assessments calibrated for Corey Ray, Keston Hiura answered a crucial risk question (can he play 2B?), and a veritable gang of pop-up pitchers continued to march upward in the system, potentially boosting and extending the no-name, depth-oriented pitching staff into 2019. Make no mistake about it, the system might continue to rank in the middle of the league in terms of overall quality, and the set of clear potential impact roles (true 60 OFP+ roles) may end with Keston Hiura and Corey Ray should Corbin Burnes exhaust his rookie standing through the end of 2018.

Yet, given the instant development of 2018 First Round draft pick Brice Turang, the Brewers could demonstrate that they indeed nabbed an Elite Prep prospect that fell due to prospect fatigue. Turang could quickly help to boost the top of the system as an MLB potential role falls into place. Moreover, given the Brewers’ expanded efforts in International signings, as well as the quality use of signing bonus allocations in each of the last two MLB drafts, the lower minors could continue to host a variety of players that suddenly surge onto the prospect scene. While this does not make the Brewers system different than many other MLB systems, it provides a road map to how the club can continue to develop talent while contending. One could argue that it’s absurd to suggest that the Brewers “rely” on someone like Turang falling in the MLB draft, but this is exactly the type of prospect perception and role foresight that the Brewers must have if they are going to succeed while drafting in the bottom half of each round.

Of course, the notable graduations from the system should not be undersold as well. Now there are so many starters, depth roles, and trades from the Brewers prospect stock that I added a new category this year:

Now, with these graduates in mind, what does a somewhat thinner, but still rather interesting Brewers system look like?

Prospect Key
Top 10 Consideration
Top 30 Consideration
[Just Interesting]

Of course, it is also worth emphasizing how the system has been….decimated in key areas. Given the quick development by advanced prospects acquired from the major 2015-2016 trades, as well as the huge trades entering 2018 and during the recent deadlines, the pool of potential impact prospects acquiring via trade has waned:

This is an important category to consider simply because Milwaukee demonstrated how adroit trades could quickly rebuild a system and reform an MLB roster. It will be worth watching to see if the Stearns continues to attempt to find Jonathan Villar and Keon Broxton types via trade now that the club is solidly contending. Of course, one could argue that Stearns is always trying to find this player (be it Oliver Drake, or Jesus Aguilar, or even Alec Asher), but that it simply the fact that these players will not always come via trade.

Thanks to the mechanical corrections, good health, and overall development of Corey Ray, as well as the surging role of Troy Stokes Jr., the development of draft prospects arguably has a better outlook entering 2019 than it did prior to 2018. Given the advancement of Corbin Burnes into a relief role, Brandon Woodruff and Taylor Williams into respective swingman and depth relief roles, and Brett Phillips into a fourth outfielder, it is clear that the Brewers front office is considering all possible role developments with each player (rather than following a cookie cutter model, or a model in which each prospect must immediately receive playing time in their clearest future role). It is arguable that this type of development strategy could maximize roles ranging from Stokes to Zack Brown, Jake Gatewood, and maybe even Lucas Erceg.

Meanwhile, Milwaukee signed a couple of additional potential impact International Amateur free agents this July, continuing an attempt to build up the low minors. Carlos Rodriguez and Larry Ernesto are already making some noise in the Dominican Summer League, while prospects like Jose Sibrian and Jesus Lujano have made the leap stateside.

Frankly, this Brewers system will not look as strong, in terms of potentially elite impacts roles, as the one that received ranking for 2018 at Baseball Prospectus. Yet, as new cycles of player development depth emerge in the low minors, and the Brewers continue their unique form of MLB roster construction (clearly using all 40 roster spots for MLB-adjacent roles and frequently shuffling those roles), Milwaukee could be an organizational well-suited to do more with less. For if 2017 fired the opening shot that the Brewers can contend simply based on giving high floor players a chance to work in the MLB, 2018 is advancing that ideal and carrying it to deeper logical, promotional, and transactional extensions.

Photo Credit: Gary A. Vasquez, USA Today Sports Images

Recommended Reading:
True Outcomes (Jarrett Seidler, Baseball Prospectus)
Round Table: Short Hitter Stigma (Baseball Prospectus)
The May Promotions (Baseball Prospectus, Prospect Team)

In a way, I don’t need to write this article. So many minds are already made; I see it on Brewers Twitter everyday, that Keston Hiura is a slam dunk, guaranteed superstar prospect, and it does not matter where or how you look at it. Hiura should be untouchable in midseason trade talks; Hiura will be a guaranteed top of the order bat for the Brewers for the foreseeable future; when the Brewers’ impressive 40+ Wins Above Replacement (WAR) First Round Draft record was noted on draft day, it was easy for some to emphasize that Keston Hiura is next. Never mind that according to Baseball Reference, approximately 500 players in the entire history of baseball have reached this plateau, this next prospect is a certain thing. But my mind has waivered on Hiura, and I gather I’m not the only one who not only cringes at the unnecessary prospect hype (these will be the same people leading the torches to Miller Park should Hiura “settle” as a 5.0 WAR player or become a DH-trade asset, yet another unnecessary practice with judging MLB players), but who is genuinely perplexed about the issue posed by Hiura’s potential role. For it is easy to focus on the Top Percentile outcome, “Keston Hiura, All Star Second Baseman for the Brewers,” and end the dreaming there; if that’s your position, you probably do not need to read this article. Yet serious questions remain about how Hiura fits in the organization in his secondary, realistic risk roles of Left Field or Designated Hitter, and those questions are tied up in the thorny information asymmetry wrapped in the prospect’s throwing elbow.

It is obvious that none of us know who Hiura will be. One could look at his hitting mechanics and doubles-oriented pop and see a realistic chance that he sticks in the MLB regardless of his fielding role. His fielding roles might not be certain, or even linear; he could begin his career at second base in Milwaukee, fall off defensively, and move to designated hitter or left field. A development in his game could theoretically find him at a different position all together, especially given the flexibility-oriented mindset of many contemporary MLB teams (he could be a PH / DH / 2B / LF). He could fall off second base before even leaving the minors, but prove himself worthy of a shot in left field (this is the phenomenal Willie Calhoun role comp provided by Baseball Prospectus on their Top 10 list). All that is before considering any potential development courses derailed by the elbow injury. Yet even some members of the Baseball Prospectus prospect team have changed their public voice on Hiura, leading one to wonder whether the floor of that realistic / risk role is diminishing in likelihood.

This feature is meant as an exercise in probabilistic thinking, in which aspects of the historical record in MLB are used to define Hiura’s potential outlook using the structure of the game. The assumption is that because of MLB’s competitive organizational environment, including the quick learning of new strategies as well as the constant search for viable alternative or underappreciated strategies, there are legitimate organizational-structural constraints that define Player Development. This does not mean that history forms the future, but rather that the history of the game used in a narrow, comparative manner will provide some evidence that can inform projections about contemporary players. Here, I will focus on body type, pedigree, and defensive profile to outline just some of the extremely diverse futures that could greet Hiura.

Entering 2018, the PECOTA comparison system viewed Hiura as a bat-first prospect, and developed a projection that pegged the prospect as a replacement player second baseman for Milwaukee (a good thing). Hiura’s MLB batting line according to the March 23, 2018 PECOTA projection (CSV download, March 23, 2018) was .225 / .274 / .363, which is not bad for a prospect leaping to the MLB within a year of the MLB Amateur Draft. Much more interesting than the stats are the player comparisons generated by the underlying patterns and age curve recognized for Hiura.

PECOTA compared Hiura to three strong MLB role prospects. Matt Davidson ranked in the second tier of a stacked Arizona Diamondbacks Top 10 for 2012, with a clear bat-first role based on his power. Entering 2016, Dominic Smith ranked fifth in the New York Mets system with a 45 Overall Future Potential role as Second-Division Starter. Here the batting question awaited power at a limited defensive role. Jose Osuna was the only member of this trio unranked by Baseball Prospectus entering their age-21 season, although it’s worth emphasizing that this is not a knock against Osuna. The Pirates prospect was fighting within a system that saw Alen Hanson, Luis Heredia, and Harold Ramirez as prospects 8-through-10. Nevertheless, this trio provides interesting minor league statistical performances in their age-21 campaigns, drawing some comparison to Hiura in terms of relative discipline profile (here I am using strike outs (K) and walks (BB)), especially for both Smith and Osuna.

In terms of draft pedigree, Hiura’s First Round, Ninth pick standard is quite interesting because this area of the draft begins to shift from “going for a clear superstar territory” to “gambling on many comparable ‘best player available’ types,” leaving an unclear expectation for the pick. Yet, according to Baseball Reference, 34 of 54 players have historically made the MLB from this draft slot, and that ticks up in the modern draft era (17 of 21 Ninth overall picks from 1995-2015 reached the MLB). These players are typically not superstars in the sense one would use to discuss the most elite players in the game. Of the 21 Wild Card era Ninth picks, Geoff Jenkins, Michael Cuddyer, and Mark Kotsay are the best retired position players, and Javier Baez, Austin Meadows, and Ian Happ are just now establishing their careers. Historically, each Ninth pick is worth approximately 5.0 WAR with 62 percent odds of reaching the MLB, while more recently (1995-2015) each Ninth pick is worth approximately 7.0 WAR (and counting) with 81 percent odds of reaching the MLB (the standard deviation is 10.1, which demonstrates the absurd volatility of the MLB draft and MLB career trajectories). In other words, the baseline for Hiura’s professional career features quite strong odds of reaching the MLB (they are not set in stone) and a very solid average performance (5.0 to 7.0 WAR is nothing to sneeze at in terms of the grand scheme of baseball). In fact, in a crude sense, a 7.0 WAR performance would extrapolate Hiura’s 50th Percentile PECOTA over the course of approximately four seasons: a solid career, indeed, and potentially one that is viewed as reasonable by projection systems.

It is fun to see that, thus far, several of the active Ninth Pick players are playing in the National League Central, adding intrigue to the standard divisional competition. If Hiura wishes to make his mark on this Overall Pick, Javier Baez, Austin Meadows, and Ian Happ could each impact Hiura’s potential assessment of greatness.

Keston Hiura is a relatively short ballplayer, and one can use his body type to investigate MLB roles as well. This is not an insult to Hiura; it’s simply a fact, as even on his own Double-A Biloxi Shuckers squad, 33 Shuckers taller than Hiura have played in 2018. Height has real world consequences in defining MLB roles, as Hiura may become less likely to play at first base than other bat-first prospects in search of a positional home; given that the arm may also keep Hiura off right field, the nomadic defensive spectrum speculation for Hiura’s future mightily limits the prospect’s path. This is not a problem, but it should help to round out some role risk probabilities. Height also affects Hiura’s positional future in left field, as Baseball Reference Play Index shows that Kiké Hernandez is the first 5’11”, 182-200 pound MLB player since 1989 to play Left Field while debuting at age-22; the last 5’11”, 182-200 pound MLB player to debut at Left Field during their age-21 season was Danny Heep in 1979. During the Expansion Era, only 94 MLB position players debuted at age-21 with a listed height of 5’11”, while only 134 MLB position players debuted at age-22 with a listed height of 5’11”.

The historical path to an early (age-21 or age-22) debut for a 5’11”, 182-200 pound player is much clearer at second base. Here, a fascinating range of roles emerge.

It’s impossible to unsee Pete Rose, and that’s just such an interesting comparison for a million reasons, not the least of which that Rose’s general lack of home run power in favor of a high average, doubles-oriented approach might actually fit Hiura’s batting profile in some ways. But I do not find it helpful to focus on 80 WARP players while discussing potential prospect roles; obviously that would be an “everything goes perfectly,” elite percentile prospect outcome that would challenge Robin Yount as the greatest player in Brewers history (in terms of WARP). Kiké Hernandez, Steve Sax, and Blake DeWitt are my favorites on this list in terms of rounding out potential role determinations or profiles.

• Hernandez is a positionally flexible player that showed an early career ability to hit (2015) prior to becoming a utility player;

• Steve Sax was a batting-average and doubles hitter that used those skills to drive valuable profiles even when the glove was not there (ultimately, Sax’s 23.1 career WARP occurred with -18.8 FRAA contrasted by a .260 TAv);

• DeWitt was a player that saw an early career (first year, actually!) surge coupled with some positional trouble and a steep, almost immediate drop off.

• A “Steve Sax” career would be a phenomenal outcome for Hiura, which would also help Hiura contend with Geoff Jenkins as the best Ninth Overall position player (thus far); yet I think a “Blake DeWitt” career shows how a ballplayer can be a good prospect, produce MLB value, and also encounter some role shifts and decline at the MLB level while ultimately having a good career. To my mind, this is one way it might look if Hiura storms the MLB out of the gate at 2B, and then encounters some positional shift and offensive adjustment issues.

Figure One

One final role question concerns Hiura’s potential quality of defense at second base. Outside of the prospect’s own injury concerns, it is worth investigating the structure of the position: if Hiura’s concerns produce a below average defensive profile, will that stick as an everyday 2B? Second base is a strange position, as the progression of positional average performances during the Wild Card Era (1995-2017 for full seasons) suggests that teams are generally favoring glove-first players at second base. While True Average (TAv) is modestly improving over time for regular second basemen, Fielding Runs Above Average (FRAA) is significantly improving across the league (see Figure One, above). Yet, isolating the very best bats among second basemen shows that contemporary MLB teams are very tolerant of below average FRAA seasons when the bat is excellent. Recent seasons by Scooter Gennett (2017), Ben Zobrist (2016), Jose Altuve (2016, 2014), and Joe Panik (2015) show that imperfect second base defensive profiles can continue to play so long as they hit. In fact, for each five year period (or so) during the Wild Card Era, there are roughly four bat-first, poor glove 2B in the MLB at any given time. Thus, there should certainly be a future for Keston Hiura at second base if his injury does not diminish his ability to play the field, should his bat deliver at an excellent clip.

None of these structural aspects of the game impact assessments of Hiura’s mechanical and plate approach profile, which is another endeavor that can establish the right-handed batter’s risk, floor, and potential ceiling. But, these structural aspects can be used to place Hiura’s profile within the broader context of the game. Hiura is not simply a slam dunk prospect. Based on his size, if Hiura debuts in 2018 at second base, he will be a rather rare prospect and one without much historical understanding for paths to big league success. Here, a Steve Sax career is the goal, the legacy to beat in terms of maximal production. In terms of draft pedigree, Hiura was not picked in a realm that generally produces game-changing superstars, instead presenting very solid regulars and All-Stars for the game. In this regard, a Geoff Jenkins profile is the goal, the legacy to beat in terms of maximal production. While assessing potential shortcomings in Hiura’s profile, especially at second base, it is worth emphasizing that a great-bat-bad-glove second baseman will work in the contemporary MLB. Here, the role ranges clearly from Scooter Gennett to Jose Altuve, rounding out a wide range of useful MLB potential futures.

None of these structural aspects of the game provide predictive insights for Hiura’s future. Rather, they can be used in order to help inform background expectations and probabilistic insights into the value of Hiura’s production should the youngster reach the MLB. Instead of attempting to view Hiura as an MLB slam dunk, it is worth meandering through these fields of potential roles in order to understand the wide range of success that could await Hiura. For MLB success is not simply stardom-or-bust, even for a prospect like Hiura.

References:

Baseball Prospectus. Individual Stats – Season Totals [CSV]. Parameters: 2B, MLB, All-Time.

Baseball Prospectus. Top 10 Prospects Landing Page.

Baseball Reference. MLB Draft. Ninth Overall Pick, and 2017 First Round.

Baseball Reference. Play Index. Separate Age-21 and Age-22 Searches, separate searches for 2B, DH, and LF, each where height = 71 inches; weight >= 182 lbs; weight <= 200 lbs.

Please consider Baseball Prospectus subscription and Baseball Reference ad-free browsing to support these endeavors.

AAA Colorado Springs Sky Sox
Who to Watch: The pitchers. Good news for those who distrust the Brewers’ current starting rotation: Help is on the way! The bad news is that said help is pitching at elevation, in conditions which have caused more than one pitcher to lose their feel for a breaking ball. Still, the fact that the organization has top prospects Corbin Burnes and Freddy Peralta awaiting a call in Colorado is in itself exciting. After coaxing Brandon Woodruff and Josh Hader through limited reps at Colorado Springs last season, there’s a template in place that could have Burnes and Peralta each recording big league outs as soon as the middle of the year. Both have potential to flourish as mid-rotation starters, with Burnes possessing both a higher ceiling and floor. But Peralta is no slouch; he should at least have impact potential as a reliever, and could wind up as a bullpen ace if the starting rotation isn’t his long-term home.

Perhaps the most exciting thing about the Sky Sox pitching staff is its depth. Burnes and Peralta are the top two names, but Junior Guerra and Wade Miley will make big league starts this year, and Brandon Woodruff is due back in Milwaukee any minute. Meanwhile, Jorge López is back in Colorado Springs to exorcise some personal demons two years after a disastrous turn for the Sky Sox tanked his prospect stock. Even if his path to the big leagues now lies through the bullpen, there’s plenty of reason to believe in his arm. If the big league staff stumbles, the call-ups could come in thick and fast.

Honorable Mention: Jacob Nottingham has quietly improved behind the plate to the point that he should be able to handle a big league staff. Take a peek behind his uninspiring slash line for Biloxi last year (.209/.326/.369), and you’ll see that he was actually a hair above league average with the stick last year by advanced metrics like TAv and wRC+. If he can continue to produce at that offensive rate (he’s off to a good start through his first few games), there’s plenty of reason to think that he’ll at least be able to hold down a job as a big league backup as early as next year.

AA Biloxi Shuckers
Who to Watch: The outfield. Corey Ray and Trent Grisham are the most familiar names here, but Troy Stokes, Jr. turned the most heads last year, reaching AA for the first time and posting a strong .279 TAv through 153 plate appearances. Stokes is a 5’8” right-handed hitter with good speed and some surprising pop. He’ll need to work on his barrel control and cut back on popups to take the next step.

The extraordinarily patient Grisham will watch his share of pitches sale by (his 98 walks were second in the minors last year), but when he does swing he uses his whole body to whip the bat through the plate at incredible speed. The hit tool needs to progress, but he’s got an elite eye and heaps of potential.

Meanwhile, Corey Ray struck out ten times in his first twenty at-bats, but still flashes the tools that made him a fifth-overall draft pick in 2016.

Honorable Mention: Kodi Medeiros is probably headed for a relief role in the majors, but the Brewers will keep developing him as a starter as long as they can. His funky delivery and low arm slot are hell on same-sided batters, albeit less so for those with the platoon advantage. Medeiros still has that wipeout slider that turned heads in high school, and he’s finally learning how to locate it. With a little more consistency, he could shoot up the fast track and into the big league ‘pen.

A+ Carolina Mudcats
Who to Watch: Keston Hiura, obviously. He’s off to a slow start (1-15, 5 Ks in 16 plate appearances) but there’s little doubt that he’s going to hit…and hit and hit. Unless his elbow implodes and necessitates surgery, Hiura stands a strong chance to taste Biloxi by mid-summer. Most don’t expect him in the majors until late 2019 at the earliest, but blue-chip prospects have a knack for setting their own timelines as they climb the organizational rungs.

Honorable Mention: Left-handed hurler Nathan Kirby, whose elbow actually did implode a few years back, is healthy for the first time since 2015. Back in college, he wowed scouts with a nifty fastball and two strong secondary pitches. Now 24 years old, he’s rebuilding his arm strength in Carolina and making up for lost time. If it all clicks and Kirby stays healthy, he could vault himself back to top-prospect status in a hurry.

A- Wisconsin Timber Rattlers
Who to Watch: Tristen Lutz is going to hit a lot of home runs. The Brewers grabbed Lutz with the 34th overall pick last summer, and word is that they were considering him at number nine, too. He’s a Texan, just out of high school, and he tore through the rookie leagues last summer. The folks at FanGraphs tabbed Lutz as the #68 overall prospect entering the season thanks to his light-tower raw power and elite exit velocities. He could be a Corey Hart-type force in the heart of the lineup, with plenty of arm for right field.

Honorable Mention: Catchers KJ Harrison (third rounder in 2017) and Payton Henry (sixth rounder in 2016) are variations on the same theme. Both are good-hitting catchers with pop. They’re also both very raw receivers, and it’s conceivable that both could get pushed out from behind the dish to first base or possibly left field, where they’d need the bats to play in order to retain much value. But if even one of them makes some defensive strides without slipping on offense, the crop of young catchers on the farm will start to look very appealing.

2018 Milwaukee Brewers Top Ten Prospects (and more)

The Brewers are in a bizarre state of flux as an organization, with the most hyped prospects of the 2015 and 2016 drafts largely stalled, injured, or drifting backwards save for an exception or two, and several of the rebuilding trades hanging in a suspended state of anticipation. This whole line could easily turn around if Lewis Brinson makes adjustments at the MLB level and hits, or Brett Phillips continues to override his weaknesses with a well-rounded set of secondary skills. As has been previously mentioned, the 2017 surprise success largely vindicated President Doug Melvin’s 2015 deadline trades (Zach Davies, Domingo Santana, and Josh Hader combined for 7.5 WARP), and the greatest steps forward in the minor league system (perhaps for the second consecutive year, if one counts last year’s Brandon Woodruff campaign) belonged to the late Bruce Seid’s 2014 draft (Monte Harrison for certain, as well as improving depth roles from Jake Gatewood, Troy Stokes, and Jordan Yamamoto).

Again, none of this is news to the Brewers minor league fan, but it’s worth repeating in order to process the difficulties and absurdities that define player development: there is no linear path to baseball success. Now, one of the ostensible reasons for the necessity of the Brewers rebuild (a weak homegrown farm system) will define key roles for the 2018 big league club (Orlando Arica, Jacob Barnes, Brent Suter, and the aforementioned Woodruff) and perhaps the next impact outfielder for the club (Harrison). A system in which Harrison potentially leapfrogs Brinson is fascinating insofar as it seemed highly improbable even a year ago, but then again, unexpected outcomes are the new normal in Milwaukee. This is the club whose rebuilding GM, David Stearns, has made his best moves at the MLB level (Travis Shaw, Chase Anderson, Jonathan Villar, and Junior Guerra) rather than with the minor leagues (Brinson is his major hope here).

Stearns awaits his first impact prospect graduation to the MLB level. Will 2018 be that year?

Update (9:15 AM): to visualize the system in another light, here is a look at the last five drafts, including the top five picks from each and their 2018 organizational outlook. Ten of these players dot the Top 20, including three top tier prospects, another two are already on the MLB roster, and two other prospects have defined the MLB roster via trade:

All of this is a prelude to a difficult question about the state of the Brewers minor league system once more. For a system with advanced quality prospects (Brinson, Woodruff, and Phillips still make the cut as rookies), there remains much risk in developing full MLB roles. Phillips may be the closest of the group to his impact role, as the fantastic defensive centerfielder and Three True Outcome bat showed just how an “inbetween” role at the MLB level can look at its best. My favorite comp for Phillips is Jarrod Dyson (who also happens to be one of my favorite free agent targets for the Brewers), as Dyson exemplifies the “true fourth outfielder” role, someone who has evident shortcomings in terms of pure scouting but uses his strengths to define an extended career. Dyson is a 9.7 career WARP player despite never cracking 350 plate appearances in a season; he has become one of the most valuable players of his draft class and a true anomaly as a player that can define a career through a string of sub-2.0 WARP seasons.

As for Brinson, the BP Prospect Team listed one risk: “He may not hit major-league pitching. Wheeee!” In extended form: “Brinson has shown the ability to make adjustments at each level, but he’s also needed adjustment time. I find those prospects to be a bit riskier at the highest level.” Woodruff, on the other hand, does not exhibit the same type of risk as someone like Brinson, as the righty has never been held to All-Star ultimate roles. But, even if the “will he be a reliever?” debate is not as loud with Woodruff as it was (and is) with Josh Hader, it remains, hiding within the necessary adjustments in Woodruff’s secondary pitch approach. This is not an incurable problem, as it is worth noting that Zach Davies had the same back-end rotation versus bullpen question marks, and has since adjusted his arsenal and approach into an MLB rotational bulldog stance.

Any warnings about Brinson are worth extending to Monte Harrison, perhaps the most stunning solid Top Five appearing in the 2018 list. One can learn from Brinson’s MLB transition in order to temper hype expectations for Harrison, as indeed the pure athlete has already demonstrated the extent to which a professional baseball career will take its twists. 2017 top draftee Keston Hiura joins Harrison at the very heights of the list, arguably the best prospect in the system on the basis of that hit tool, but knocked down a rung depending on how one views the defensive scenario for Hiura. The second baseman-to-be will inevitably receive every chance he needs to stick in the infield, and then he’ll get every chance to stick in the outfield, too. One wonders if he might, at worst, follow a path blazed by Jason Kipnis, who certainly showed that an impact second baseman need not bring the leather year after year.

Corbin Burnes rounds out the new faces in the Top Five. The righty might exemplify the risk-hype wager for the Brewers system, as Burnes will almost certainly not meet the expectations of Brewers fans who are solely scouting his stat line thus far. Burnes became quite an interesting case study throughout the 2017 season, as scouting reports based on early season viewings had yet to capture his delivery adjustments that occurred later in the season, and almost everyone on Brewers Twitter had conflicting information about his stuff. It was interesting to watch the developments unfold, certainly a lesson to fans that (1) statistics do not mean a thing at the minor league level because (2) there is often significant disjoint between those stats and the scouting of mechanical adjustments and organizational approaches with minor leaguers. There are numerous player development hurdles to define role risk for prospects before one considers questions about information asymmetries.

What is intriguing is that Burnes may be one of the clearest prospects on this list to quickly reach his peak role, middle rotation starter.

Let us bask in the mid-rotation arm that could be Burnes, and destroy the narrative that “the Brewers do not have any aces.” This concern occurs again and again with Brewers fans, and it’s as unnecessary an application of unrealistic expectations that could exist within baseball fandom. Here, leaning on the successes of 2017 can provide worthwhile lessons going forward: Jimmy Nelson was never scouted as an ace, Chase Anderson was never an ace, Zach Davies was never an ace, even Josh Hader was never an ace. Brent Suter? Junior Guerra? ….well… Anyway, you’ve clearly seen the point by now: MLB pitching is quite a volatile endeavor, with very few pitchers piecing together consistent MLB campaigns (or even consecutive, successful MLB campaigns as regular starters). Should Davies follow up on his 2017 season with another good year, for instance, even he would be catapulted into some fantastic category, “MLB pitcher with three consecutive better-than-average seasons.” If Davies does that, and Burnes is even Zach Davies, the Brewers rotation will be solid beyond belief.

If you do not learn anything else from the Milwaukee Brewers 2018 Top Prospect list, hopefully you will walk away with the view of the benefits of having multiple advanced-minors, mid-rotation pedigree arms lined up. For that matter, even the value of having multiple players stacked at any position should be evident; now, the 2020 Milwaukee Brewers do not necessarily rely on Lewis Brinson in the outfield. Through the layers of 5,000 universes, it’s probably Brinson, but we also know that it could be Phillips, or it could be Harrison (or of course, someone else entirely). Each of these statements, each of these players, obviously means different things for the Brewers, who could be a 76-win team in 2020 after peaking with this current roster. So it goes: once you walk away with the lesson about aces, or #TeamDepth, or role risk, you gain the comfortable certainty of player development and team-building volatility. The best part is that many of these players are close to the MLB, meaning that Brewers fans will soon get to agonize over a new, tumultuous journey.

Photo Credit: Benny Sieu, USAToday Sports Images

There are methodological shortcomings to both scouting and statistical reports. Scouting reports have shortcomings in terms of potential observer biases or preferences, limited looks (even some organizations draft a player after only one look), and privileged information (or, at times, even intentional asymmetrical information from clandestine “sources”); statistics are impacted by all the contextual factors present at the MLB level, but perhaps even moreso age, quality of competition, developmental cycle (i.e., first trip to a level), and proprietary development assignments that will typically be unknown to external observers. These factors diminish the meaning of minor league statistis.

BPMilwaukee benefits from work with the Baseball Prospectus scouting team, which consistently uses a radical “eyes in the field” approach to drive scouting reports that are therefore often divergent from, and perhaps less hype-worthy (a good thing), than many industry competitors. (One example here would be the 2016 approach to RHPs Brandon Woodruff and Phil Bickford, compared to sources like FanGraphs and BaseballAmerica). To supplement reports, which can be gathered from BP player pages and daily prospect summaries published on the website, statistical analysis can be applied to index contextual factors that could impact the perception of a player’s performance. To this end, I will publish a two part series detailing the contextual factors impacting Brewers regular (or semiregular) batting and pitching minor leaguers, which should hopefully add information to the use of scouting lines throughout the offseason.

I choose the method of indexing statistics because it is relatively straightforward in terms of user interface: every metric can be measured against a “constant” or comparison variable, such as “Player Total Average (TAv)” versus “League TAv.” In an index, 1.00 can basically be read as “average,” for it means that a player’s metric perfectly matches the comparison metric. For example, Outfield Michael Reed played during his age-24 season at Class-AA Biloxi, and the Southern League had a median age of 24; therefore, Reed’s age index is 1.00 (after all these years, Reed is still not “old” for advanced minor league ball).

For system wide reference, here is a key:

For this exercise, I indexed Age, TAv, Opposing OPS (oppOPS), and Park Factor statistics drawn from Baseball Prospectus CSV (retrieved September 13, 2017). These categories do not exhaust the information available, but they are arguably foundations for measuring the typical quality of the regular players in the league, the quality of opposing pitchers, and any extreme (or not) park environments. Note that I did not focus on Rookie classes (Pioneer League, Arizona League, or Dominican Summer League), as those leagues are not only (arguably) more instructional in nature but also representative of professionals at their earliest stages of development (therefore, I am not quite certain what Rookie class stats “say”).

I used two methods:

• Once I created an Index for each of these statistics, I weighted each player’s OPS by assessing it against the Opposing OPS quality and contextual factors. Again, 1.00 can be read as average; below 1.00 can be read as below average, while above 1.00 can be read as better than average.
• To provide a quality control for this rudimentary method, I used a basic TAv Index. Since Total Average is already scaled to many contextual factors, it more accurately reflects a player’s performance within a specific run, park, and league environment (certainly moreso than OPS).
• By using a 50 Plate Appearance cut off, I captured 72 batting seasons performed by 63 Brewers minor leaguers.

A few observations:

• The very best statistical performances within the minor league system have varying degrees of scouting support. Keston Hiura, for example, was advertised as one of the best bats in the 2017 Draft (perhaps the most advanced college bat, even), and Hiura indeed scorched the Midwest League to the tune of a .326 TAv; he did so while being young for his league (during his first pro go-around), facing solid to slightly-tough opponents, and a moderate park environment. Jake Gatewood may have been the surprise breakout of the season, combining new contact lenses and mechanical advancements to pummel both Class-Advanced A and Class-AA leagues. Monte Harrison was another strong tools prospect – really, a fantastic athlete – that finally played a healthy season. Harrison and Gatewood diverge in terms of the type of Overall Future Potential roles they have, but here they converge in making great strides in showcasing their tools in 2017. On the other hand, Troy Stokes does not necessarily have the full scouting pedigree behind his statistical performance, which makes his 2017 season eye opening in terms of assessing an organizational depth role. Garrett Cooper was advanced minor league depth who went on to post a .275 TAv in 45 injury-shortened PA with the Yankees.

• Much has been made of the disappointing season by the much-hyped gang of Carolina bats (Corey Ray, Lucas Erceg, Isan Diaz, and Trent Clark). However, it should be underscored that they did not actually have bad seasons. At worst, they had arguably average seasons when considering their age and developmental status (each facing a new league the first time through). However, what is interesting is that each player has new scouting reports on potential flaws that could indeed impact Overall Future Potential; for example, a midseason 2017 eyewitness report downgraded Ray’s role, and several other members of the prospect team confirmed hit tool concerns throughout the season. This type of scouting concern cycle was repeated for several of these prospects, but it is worth nothing this was also scouts’ first full look at Corey Ray and Lucas Erceg. In this case, one ought to hold the conclusions on statistical and scouting assessments for another season, as more information will be necessary to understand these potential shortcomings. Anyway, hold the hype (and really, be healthy about hype in the first place!).

• There are a ton of interesting sleepers around here. Some interesting reports are floating around regarding infielder Wendell Rijo, for example, but the second baseman has never really flashed the stats. This year, Rijo graded solidly both in terms of contextual OPS and TAv. Clint Coulter remained young for his level (Class-AA Biloxi in 2017), and posted some intriguing peripheral statistics to go along with his overall solid line. Granted, there are few emerging reports on either of these players yet, which leaves room for a healthy dose of skepticism about future role. But, it’s worth remembering that many of these guys are so young when drafted that they remain young even through several repeated stages of Advanced ball development; hanging around at that upper level, one wonders what might come of a guy like Coulter after Garrett Cooper received trade interest.

• In terms of melding scouting pedigree and performance, Brett Phillips might have the best season of any Brewers prospect. While many viewed his 2016 campaign as a disappointment, there were several aspects of Phillips’s game that exhibited strengths even through the perceived weaknesses of his stat line. Of course, Phillips was also quite young for his level. The intriguing “elite”-4th Outfielder-to-potential CF or RF starter put it all together in 2017, including a couple of stunning cups of coffee in the MLB (including a 2-for-4, three RBI night with an Outfield Assist against the Pirates on Wednesday). Hiura has the flashiest immediate hype and performance, but Phillips’s full season production and realization of one aspect of his MLB future could arguably win him “Best Bat” of the system for 2017. I gather that someone like Monte Harrison most deserves a “Player of the Year” Award, but Phillips should not be discounted when considering the Brewers system’s best players.

That narrative started to change on March 28, when the Cincinnati Reds claimed Gennett off waivers. The loss barely registered on most fans’ radars. A blip of nostalgia, perhaps, but these were the rebuilding Milwaukee Brewers. We’re used to players coming and going. In actuality, Gennett’s sudden departure was the first in a series of unexpected events that engulfed second basemen throughout the Brewers’ system. (Perhaps the most unexpected? Scooter’s .308 Total Average (TAv) and 24 dingers in 435 plate appearances for the division-rival Reds.)

As 2017 winds down, it’s safe to say that the second base picture has grown considerably more murky. Here’s a brief overview of the state of the position up and down the organization.

Major Leagues
Jonathan Villar got off to a miserable start this season, hitting only .221 before the All-Star break and battling a lower back injury in June. Even before the injury, ineffectiveness cost Villar significant playing time. The Brewers summoned utility infielder Eric Sogard from Class-AAA in mid-May, and the diminutive veteran’s hot start in Milwaukee left Villar the odd man out. It was scarcely the follow-up the club had hoped for from Villar, who led the majors with 62 stolen bases and recorded a .826 OPS last year. Villar earned his long leash, but he deserved his reduced role this summer. He’s provided fans a glimmer of hope since the break, batting .288/.306/.415 while working at second and dabbling in center field.

Sogard, meanwhile, won hearts across Brewers nation with a monstrous first half, in which he batted .331/.438/.485. He, too, was bit by the injury bug this season, landing on the 10-day disabled list with a left ankle strain in early July. He hasn’t been the same player since making his way back to the active roster, as evidenced by a paltry .171/.276/.224 triple-slash in the second half. The 31-year-old is a free agent at the end of the season, meaning his days in Milwaukee blue may be numbered.

The versatile Hernan Perez has occasionally spelled Sogard and Villar this year, and he’s done so with aplomb. Brewers brass prefers Perez in a super-utility role, though, so he shouldn’t be considered a long-term solution at the keystone. The same goes for Yadiel Rivera, who made only one brief trip to the majors in his final option year, going hitless in a pair of plate appearances.

Dissatisfied with a slumping Sogard and inconsistent Villar, the Brewers acquired Neil Walker from the New York Mets on August 12 for a player to be named. Walker has been a steady contributor this year, amassing 1.3 WARP in just 380 plate appearances. He’s turned it up a notch since coming to Milwaukee, batting .279/.395/.485 in 22 games. But the 31-year-old is likely to command more in free agency this offseason than the Brewers will want to pay. With younger options already on the big league roster, Walker is likely a pure rental, to be enjoyed while he lasts.

Minor Leagues
Eric Sogard’s May promotion to the major leagues allowed Nate Orf to lock down the second base job in Class-AAA Colorado Springs. He hasn’t disappointed. Orf hit .320/.397/.507 in the thin air of the Pacific Coast League, flashing hitherto unseen power (his 9 home runs this year surpassed his previous career total). At 27 years old, Orf is an unconventional prospect. But he’s also an intriguing one. Orf draws plenty of walks (10.7 percent), and his solid hit tool allows him to avoid strikeouts (14.8 percent). He’s managed to keep the ball off the ground this year, too, and could be a sneaky-good major leaguer if ever given the chance. His .288 TAv in Colorado Springs indicates that he’s ready for that opportunity. Orf could crack the Opening Day roster as a utility man next year if he’s protected from the Rule 5 Draft this offseason.

Mauricio Dubon split time between second base and shortstop this year, reaching Colorado Springs for the first time on June 26. Dubon possesses a solid hit tool, but he failed to replicate the power he flashed last season with the Portland Sea Dogs. If he grows into some pop, he could be a nifty starter. Otherwise, he’s destined for a role as a utility player.

Isan Diaz came to Milwaukee in the Jean Segura trade, and won the organizational Minor League Player of the Year award in 2016 by way of a first impression. He socked 20 home runs and 34 doubles in the Midwest League last season, but took a step back in Class-Advanced A Carolina this year. Diaz struck out in 26.6 percent of his plate appearances en route to a .222/.334/.376 line for the Mudcats. A fractured hamate ended his season in late August.

With the ninth selection of the Rule 4 Draft, the Brewers nabbed California-Irvine standout Keston Hiura. Hiura’s a second baseman by trade, but acted as a strict DH throughout his final collegiate season amidst concerns over an injured elbow. Any worries about whether he could field were mitigated by the fact that Hiura can really, really hit. He walloped Arizona League pitching with a .425 TAv before moving up to Class-A Wisconsin and posting a .326 TAv in just over 100 plate appearances. Hiura returned to the dirt towards the end of the season and held his own at second base. He will push Diaz for superiority in the top prospect pecking order when he gets his first taste of the Carolina League next season.

2018 Outlook
Barring any significant off-season moves, Jonathan Villar is again the odds-on favorite to start at second on Opening Day. Should he stumble out of the gate, he could cede some playing time to Nate Orf, or to a random free agent signing. Mauricio Dubon could likely benefit from another year of AAA pitching, while the high-upside duo of Diaz and Hiura are set to slug it out for a promotion to Biloxi. Keep an eye on Dubon’s ISO, Diaz’s strikeout percentage, and Hiura’s work with the glove. Villar will reach free agency after the 2020 campaign. By this time next year, we should have a pretty good idea of his heir apparent.

Photo Credit: Benny Sieu, USAToday Sports Images

Related Reading:
3 Up 3 Down: May
3 Up 3 Down: April
2016 Series

With this in mind, myself and Assistant Editor Kyle Lesniewski, with help from Baseball Prospectus prospect gurus Craig Goldstein and John Eshleman, have assembled a midseason deluxe edition of “3 Up, 3 Down.” Consider this an entry in lieu of a midseason Top 30 ranking. Ranking prospects at this point is definitely in demand from many fans, but I’d like to offer this type of content in lieu of a ranking. This editorial decision is justifiable with a system such as Milwaukee’s, I believe, especially because the very top prospects are graduating (meaning, say, RHP Luis Ortiz and 2B Isan Diaz are perhaps most likely to take the top spots in the organization), but also because talent is bunched together at so many points.

If the Brewers control approximately 200 professionals within their affiliated system, a Top 30 list comprises the top 15 percent of the system. With that in mind, it’s worth emphasizing that such a list can only ever split hairs over the most elite talent within the system. Outside of the true top talent role projections (such as Ortiz and Diaz, for example, the One Percenters of the system), there are more question marks and more risk that define ranges of talent between #3-to-#10 (next 4 percent), and then organizational depth roles that define #11-20 (rounding out the top 10 percent). Consider previous Top Ten residents like Nottingham or Monte Harrison; are these players headed back to the Top 10 give Nottingham’s bat rounding out and likelihood to stick behind the dish? Or Harrison’s resolution of tools into a ballplayer? Where do you put Top 10 newcomers like Feliciano and Burnes? What about Jake Gatewood? To this, one might be able to debate about each player’s top MLB potential and likely MLB floor role (or organizational depth role), but to that point it is also worth asking whether it matters that Feliciano slots in at, say, #6 instead of #15, or Burnes at #9 instead of #14. So, consider this feature an exercise in thinking through layers of quality depth that define a system that is going to be quite volatile after Brinson and Hader are gone (and probably with them, too), but a strong system nonetheless.

3 UP
UTIL Jake Gatewood, Advanced A Carolina (picked by John Eshleman): Following BPMilwaukee’s list last year, Jake Gatewood is quite a regular face in the midseason 3 Up, 3 Down, but that’s simply a reflection of the stages of this prospect’s progression. James Fisher scouted Gatewood at A Wisconsin in spring 2016, noting that “much of his improvement has come this year from an adjustment in his starting position. He has lowered his hands slightly and that has led to a much shorter and direct path to the ball. While his plate discipline is still suspect, he has been making harder and more consistent contact.” This observation accompanied the pick of Gatewood as a power prospect to watch, especially after a surge in Rookie Helena to close 2015. Following Fisher’s observation, Gatewood made another set of adjustments over the 2016-2017 offseason and has been one of the great surprises of the 2017 season.

John Eshleman writes, “his power has already been widely acknowledged, but this year he is less vulnerable to spin and pitches out of the zone. [This] not only shows up in his walk rate but also puts him in more hitters counts to tap that power.” Adjustments breeding adjustments, and another question mark answered; in this placement it almost appears that Fisher raised the question of Gatewood’s discipline for Eshleman to answer it this year. So here Gatewood stands, now receiving plenty of time at 1B, carving himself a nice role as a Brewers corner prospect while exposing the irony of prospect hype: it seems absurd to call this age-21 player “post hype” in 2017, but I’m also not sure Gatewood is a sleeper any longer. Look for these adjustments to round out an upper minors organizational ceiling into something that may be better suited to crack the big league roster (and goodness knows David Stearns is eyeing that SS / 3B / LF / 1B positional pedigree). Power and flexibility should hopefully keep Gatewood on close watch in this system.

1B Garrett Cooper, AAA Colorado Springs (picked by Kyle Lesniewski): The Milwaukee Brewers have one of the best farm systems in baseball, littered with top-100 prospects like Lewis Brinson, Corey Ray, and Isan Diaz. But who has the best OPS of anyone in Milwaukee’s system currently? None other than the org’s 2013 6th-round pick, Garrett Cooper. The hulking product of Auburn University has displayed a penchant for contact throughout his minor league career, but has never really displayed the power that one typically likes to see from a player that primarily mans first base. That is, until now. After popping what was a career-high 9 home runs in 128 games last season between Class-AA and Class-AAA, Cooper has already blasted 14 long balls in just 64 games this season. A career .303/.366/.463 hitter in five seasons, Cooper has tattooed Pacific Coast League pitching to the tune of a .357/.412/.614 slash this season, with his .257 ISO nearly 100 points better than his career average (though it’s worth noting his home OPS at Colorado Springs of 1.258 is much higher than his .805 OPS on the road). A toned-down leg kick appears to have helped the 26 year old right-handed hitter tap more consistently into the power than a man standing at 6’6″ and 230 lbs should be able to generate. Unfortunately for Garrett, he is currently blocked at the big league level by Eric Thames and Jesus Aguilar. Cooper was passed over in the Rule 5 Draft after being left unprotected last season but given his improved level of production this year, it’s easy to imagine someone taking a shot on him if he’s left off the 40-man roster once again this winter.

2B Keston Hiura, Rookie Arizona (picked by Nicholas Zettel): In one sense, it’s absurd to place Hiura on this list. Hiura is not on this list because of his hitting surge in Rookie ball, where the age-20 Hiura is already old. Rather, even though some scouting outlets disagreed on the strength of Hiura’s bat (without disagreeing that the bat is the calling card for the advanced college prospect), the major question marks for Hiura revolved around both his defense and his injured elbow. The Brewers beat has reported that Hiura is working at Arizona on a throwing program before playing in the field, so the jury is out on that fielding grade for the prospect. A 2B-profile without an average glove but a great hit tool make Hiura look like a rich man’s Scooter Gennett (a good thing, if perhaps a floor). However, upon being drafted, the Brewers learned that Hiura does not require surgery for his elbow injury, which adds quite a bit of immediate certainty to the prospect profile (and no, I don’t buy that the line that “recovering from Tommy John surgery is easier for position players” reduces the uncertainty involved in rehabbing a prospect from surgery). Thus, the Brewers have their top draft pick on a throwing program rather than a surgery rehab program, and this (to my mind) allows Hiura’s top ceiling to tick slightly less risky.

3 DOWN
C Andrew Susac, AAA Colorado Springs (picked by Kyle Lesniewski): Though no longer technically a prospect (he’s taken 262 turns at the plate in the MLB), plenty of folks around Milwaukee hoped that Susac could become a multiyear starter for the Brewers behind the plate after he was acquired in the Will Smith trade from San Francisco last year. An injury during spring training this year helped cost him a spot on the Opening Day roster and delayed the start of his regular season by a few weeks, but since returning to action in mid-April the former top-100 prospect has struggled to get much of anything going at the plate. He’s split time with Tyler Heineman (and now Jett Bandy) and has appeared in just 32 games so far; in that time Susac has been able to manage only a .194/.250/.407 slash with five home runs in the hitter-friendly confines of Security Service Field. He has thrown out seven of the 17 runners that have tried to steal on him, but his framing numbers and all-around fielding metrics have taken a step back this year. Susac now appears at the very least to be behind Manny Pina, Stephen Vogt, and Bandy on the organizational catching depth chart, and with Jacob Nottingham coming on strong just one level behind, the age-27 catcher needs to start figuring things out before he gets lost in the shuffle once again.

IF Gilbert Lara, A Wisconsin (picked by Craig Goldstein): As the Brewers are reportedly linked to a few top International Prospects according to BaseballAmerica, one ought use the Gilbert Lara signing as a cautionary tale of sorts, but one should not use Lara’s struggles as an argument against investing in international talent for Milwaukee. The shortstop-to-third baseman has had his trip off shortstop delayed in 2017, which does raise a question about whether Lara’s defensive requirements at a position he is not suited for is impacting his performance thus far.

Goldstein on Lara: He’s only 19, but he hasn’t looked right for a couple years and I think it’s time to move on unless something changes in dramatic fashion. Oh, and he’s definitely not a shortstop.

RHP Cody Ponce, Advanced A Carolina (picked by Nicholas Zettel): Cody Ponce is one of my favorite arms in the Brewers system, so my placing him here is not really an indictment against his ceiling and floor that appeared on the 2017 Brewers Top Ten at Baseball Prospectus. Rather, it’s worth reflecting on my own biases that found Ponce to be placed in the “Potential Quick Riser” bucket I keep in my mind, as there was so much to instantly love about Ponce’s arsenal straight out of the gate. Ponce seemed like a guy who had stuff to reach the MLB as an almost certainly serviceable reliever, and I thought that floor would help him push his way to the MLB. As of this writing, Ponce is now 152.3 combined innings deep in Advanced A between 2016 and 2017, which leads one to question whether the righty’s injury during 2016 pushed back his development clock somewhat. Scouting the box score, Baseball Prospectus notes that Ponce’s groundball rate is falling as his strike out rate also declines in 2017, although it is worth noting that the Carolina League has generally been tough on Brewers prospects in 2017. Skipped over by Corbin Burnes and Freddy Peralta in terms of promotions to Class-AA Biloxi, one cannot let their previous expectations turn to disappointment on the age-23 hurler. Indeed, this is a great lesson that undue expectations are the foundation of hype, and hype does not develop prospects into serviceable MLB players.