The Graduate

2. LHP Josh Hader

Hader was ranked as the Brewers’ #2 prospect entering the 2017 season, and he did not disappoint during his first taste of big league action. The lefty spent the first few months of the season struggling in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League, but once the projected Super Two cutoff had comfortably passed the Brewers brought Hader up to join a struggling bullpen. He was a revelation in a true fireman role, tossing 47.7 innings of 2.08 ERA baseball covering 35 appearances. He struck out batters in bunches, registering 12.8 K/9, while holding opponents to a .204 TAv. If ERA isn’t enough to illustrate his dominance, he also recorded an 86 cFIP and 80 DRA-. Inconsistent command and secondaries call into question whether or not Hader can eventually become a starter, but he looks to at least have fulfilled his floor of impact reliever.

Bull Market

1. OF Lewis Brinson

The 23 year old outfielder was Milwaukee’s #1 prospect last year, and there’s little doubt that the title will be bestowed upon him once again heading into 2018. In his first extended run at the minors highest level, Brinson pounded opposing pitchers to the tune of a .331/.400/.562 slash with 13 home runs and 11 steals in 76 games. He struggled in his brief MLB debut and suffered (yet another) injury in August that ended his season early, but those issues should do little to dim his long-term outlook.

6. OF Brett Phillips

Like Brinson, Maverick Phillips got his first extended taste of the AAA level in 2017 and thrived. A year after grappling with Southern League pitching, Phillips torched the PCL for a .305/.377/.567 batting line with 19 long balls and 10 steals. Unlike Brinson, Phillips opened up some eyes within the organization during an outstanding September in the big leagues, and ended 2017 with an MLB slash of four big league dingers, five steals, a .293 TAv, and some stellar defensive play in center field (+4.4 FRAA). He’s still got a lot of swing-and-miss in his game, but that’s becoming more and more prevalent throughout the league. Phillips appears to be on the inside track for the center field job in Milwaukee next spring.

Holding Steady

8. 3B Lucas Erceg

Erceg got off to a slow start in a tough league for hitters down in Carolina, but came on strong once summer officially hit. His .256/.307/.417 slash doesn’t jump off the page, but he did post an .807 OPS after June 1st and only four batters in the Carolina League slugged more than his 15 home runs. Erceg doesn’t look like he’ll be more than an average hitter who doesn’t walk much, but the power could be above-average to plus and Baseball America ranked his as both the top defensive third baseman and the top infield arm in the Carolina League this season.

9. SS/2B Mauricio Dubon

Dubon split the year between AA and AAA and displayed quality bat-to-ball skills and nifty defensive ability at both second base and shortstop. He didn’t brandish the power that he showed during his AA stint in Boston’s organization in 2016, though, but not many people really expected him to. Dubon’s game is built around high contact and speed, and he could contribute at the big league level as soon as this coming season.

10. RHP Cody Ponce

Ponce stayed healthy in 2017, which was one of the more worrisome issues regarding his development previously. He fills the zone and doesn’t walk many hitters, but his velocity hasn’t been quite what it was during his college days. His stuff is inconsistent at times and he didn’t miss a ton of bats this year, registering only 6.7 K/9. But he did throw nearly 140 innings in 2017 between high-A and AA while logging a 3.14 ERA, helping make his projection as a inning-eating back end starter that much more realistic.

Bear Market

3. OF Corey Ray

Ray’s been a pretty big disappointment in the early stages of his career since Milwaukee popped him fifth overall in 2016. He’s struggled adjusting to even average fastball velocity, and was overmatched to the tune of a league-leading 156 strikeouts in 112 games (31 percent K-rate) with Carolina this past season. He’s become a well-regarded defender in center field and has speed to burn, but after batting .238/.311/.367 with 7 homers this season, he’s started getting some grades as a future fourth outfielder.

4. 2B/SS Isan Diaz

Diaz has been lauded as one of the top-hitting middle infield prospects in the game, but that didn’t really come to fruition in 2017. His power was way down as he clubbed 13 home runs in Carolina (from 20 the year before in low-A) and saw a 50+ point drop in his ISO. He also had issues with expanding his strike zone and whiffed in nearly 27 percent of his plate appearances. Given that he’s unlikely to stick at shortstop with his limited range, there’s a lot of pressure on his bat to develop. A .222/.334/.376 slash in A-ball isn’t going to cut it.

5. RHP Luis Ortiz

Ortiz spent the entire year in AA at the age of 21 in 2017 and finished with a respectable 4.01 ERA in 94.3 innings, which was a career-high. But he missed time once again with injury, which is concerning given his reputation for poor conditioning and a “bad body.” For as much talk as there’s been about his advanced stuff, he didn’t get a lot of whiffs against his Southern League competition, registering 7.5 K/9, while also issuing a career-worst 3.5 BB/9. While there’s still hope for an above-average starter, he’s behind the eight-ball when it comes to building an innings base and needs to show that he’s capable of handling a full-season’s workload.

7. OF Trent Clark

Another Ray Montgomery 1st-rounder that has so far failed to live up to expectations. Clark was considered the most advanced high school bat in the 2015 class, but so far in the professional ranks he’s been dinged for being far too passive in the strike zone. His reserved approach helps him get on base at a high clip and draw plenty of walks against low-level pitching, but that won’t be sustainable as he climbs the minor league ladder. He has yet to find any semblance of consistent power, either, as his OBP (.360) was higher than his SLG (.348) in 2017. This purportedly “advanced hitter” could manage only a .223 average in 2017 while striking out at a 24 percent clip. His limited arm strength means that left field is probably the best fit long-term, putting even ore pressure on the bat to start developing.

There are methodological shortcomings to both scouting and statistical reports. Scouting reports have shortcomings in terms of potential observer biases or preferences, limited looks (even some organizations draft a player after only one look), and privileged information (or, at times, even intentional asymmetrical information from clandestine “sources”); statistics are impacted by all the contextual factors present at the MLB level, but perhaps even moreso age, quality of competition, developmental cycle (i.e., first trip to a level), and proprietary development assignments that will typically be unknown to external observers. These factors diminish the meaning of minor league statistis.

BPMilwaukee benefits from work with the Baseball Prospectus scouting team, which consistently uses a radical “eyes in the field” approach to drive scouting reports that are therefore often divergent from, and perhaps less hype-worthy (a good thing), than many industry competitors. (One example here would be the 2016 approach to RHPs Brandon Woodruff and Phil Bickford, compared to sources like FanGraphs and BaseballAmerica). To supplement reports, which can be gathered from BP player pages and daily prospect summaries published on the website, statistical analysis can be applied to index contextual factors that could impact the perception of a player’s performance. To this end, I will publish a two part series detailing the contextual factors impacting Brewers regular (or semiregular) batting and pitching minor leaguers, which should hopefully add information to the use of scouting lines throughout the offseason.

I choose the method of indexing statistics because it is relatively straightforward in terms of user interface: every metric can be measured against a “constant” or comparison variable, such as “Player Total Average (TAv)” versus “League TAv.” In an index, 1.00 can basically be read as “average,” for it means that a player’s metric perfectly matches the comparison metric. For example, Outfield Michael Reed played during his age-24 season at Class-AA Biloxi, and the Southern League had a median age of 24; therefore, Reed’s age index is 1.00 (after all these years, Reed is still not “old” for advanced minor league ball).

For system wide reference, here is a key:

For this exercise, I indexed Age, TAv, Opposing OPS (oppOPS), and Park Factor statistics drawn from Baseball Prospectus CSV (retrieved September 13, 2017). These categories do not exhaust the information available, but they are arguably foundations for measuring the typical quality of the regular players in the league, the quality of opposing pitchers, and any extreme (or not) park environments. Note that I did not focus on Rookie classes (Pioneer League, Arizona League, or Dominican Summer League), as those leagues are not only (arguably) more instructional in nature but also representative of professionals at their earliest stages of development (therefore, I am not quite certain what Rookie class stats “say”).

I used two methods:

• Once I created an Index for each of these statistics, I weighted each player’s OPS by assessing it against the Opposing OPS quality and contextual factors. Again, 1.00 can be read as average; below 1.00 can be read as below average, while above 1.00 can be read as better than average.
• To provide a quality control for this rudimentary method, I used a basic TAv Index. Since Total Average is already scaled to many contextual factors, it more accurately reflects a player’s performance within a specific run, park, and league environment (certainly moreso than OPS).
• By using a 50 Plate Appearance cut off, I captured 72 batting seasons performed by 63 Brewers minor leaguers.

A few observations:

• The very best statistical performances within the minor league system have varying degrees of scouting support. Keston Hiura, for example, was advertised as one of the best bats in the 2017 Draft (perhaps the most advanced college bat, even), and Hiura indeed scorched the Midwest League to the tune of a .326 TAv; he did so while being young for his league (during his first pro go-around), facing solid to slightly-tough opponents, and a moderate park environment. Jake Gatewood may have been the surprise breakout of the season, combining new contact lenses and mechanical advancements to pummel both Class-Advanced A and Class-AA leagues. Monte Harrison was another strong tools prospect – really, a fantastic athlete – that finally played a healthy season. Harrison and Gatewood diverge in terms of the type of Overall Future Potential roles they have, but here they converge in making great strides in showcasing their tools in 2017. On the other hand, Troy Stokes does not necessarily have the full scouting pedigree behind his statistical performance, which makes his 2017 season eye opening in terms of assessing an organizational depth role. Garrett Cooper was advanced minor league depth who went on to post a .275 TAv in 45 injury-shortened PA with the Yankees.

• Much has been made of the disappointing season by the much-hyped gang of Carolina bats (Corey Ray, Lucas Erceg, Isan Diaz, and Trent Clark). However, it should be underscored that they did not actually have bad seasons. At worst, they had arguably average seasons when considering their age and developmental status (each facing a new league the first time through). However, what is interesting is that each player has new scouting reports on potential flaws that could indeed impact Overall Future Potential; for example, a midseason 2017 eyewitness report downgraded Ray’s role, and several other members of the prospect team confirmed hit tool concerns throughout the season. This type of scouting concern cycle was repeated for several of these prospects, but it is worth nothing this was also scouts’ first full look at Corey Ray and Lucas Erceg. In this case, one ought to hold the conclusions on statistical and scouting assessments for another season, as more information will be necessary to understand these potential shortcomings. Anyway, hold the hype (and really, be healthy about hype in the first place!).

• There are a ton of interesting sleepers around here. Some interesting reports are floating around regarding infielder Wendell Rijo, for example, but the second baseman has never really flashed the stats. This year, Rijo graded solidly both in terms of contextual OPS and TAv. Clint Coulter remained young for his level (Class-AA Biloxi in 2017), and posted some intriguing peripheral statistics to go along with his overall solid line. Granted, there are few emerging reports on either of these players yet, which leaves room for a healthy dose of skepticism about future role. But, it’s worth remembering that many of these guys are so young when drafted that they remain young even through several repeated stages of Advanced ball development; hanging around at that upper level, one wonders what might come of a guy like Coulter after Garrett Cooper received trade interest.

• In terms of melding scouting pedigree and performance, Brett Phillips might have the best season of any Brewers prospect. While many viewed his 2016 campaign as a disappointment, there were several aspects of Phillips’s game that exhibited strengths even through the perceived weaknesses of his stat line. Of course, Phillips was also quite young for his level. The intriguing “elite”-4th Outfielder-to-potential CF or RF starter put it all together in 2017, including a couple of stunning cups of coffee in the MLB (including a 2-for-4, three RBI night with an Outfield Assist against the Pirates on Wednesday). Hiura has the flashiest immediate hype and performance, but Phillips’s full season production and realization of one aspect of his MLB future could arguably win him “Best Bat” of the system for 2017. I gather that someone like Monte Harrison most deserves a “Player of the Year” Award, but Phillips should not be discounted when considering the Brewers system’s best players.

Midseason 2016 #1
Midseason 2016 #2
Midseason 2016 #3
April 2017

Three Up

RHP Corbin Burnes, AA Biloxi Shuckers
No pitching prospect in Milwaukee’s system has performed better than Burnes this year. He began the season with Class Advanced-A Carolina Mudcats, but after tossing an even 60.0 innings and letting in a scant 1.05 ERA/1.66 DRA, the right-handed hurler earned a promotion to Class-AA Biloxi. He debuted there last night with 3.7 scoreless, hitless innings with a walk and four strikeouts before rain wound up shortening his start. A 4th-round pick in last year’s draft, Burnes is the first player from Milwaukee’s class to reach the AA level. Mark Anderson called Burnes a “number four starter in the making” in a recent minor league update, praising his “electric” arm speed, above-average fastball, and three improving secondary pitches.

Related reading:
To his friends he’s known as Corbin, but to you it’s Mr. Burns

RHP Trey Supak, high-A Carolina Mudcats
When the Brewers decided to bump Burnes up to AA, Supak was also a beneficiary as he was promoted from Wisconsin to Carolina to back fill the rotation spot. He certainly deserved the elevation based on his performance with the Timber Rattlers, as he authored a 1.76 ERA/2.36 DRA across 41.0 innings with 53 punchouts against just 10 walks and 21 base hits allowed. He got roughed up a bit in his debut with Carolina (4 IP, 7 H, 4 ER, 7:1 K/BB), but with promising command projection and a durable frame, he’ll have the chance to develop into a number four or five starter before it’s all said and done. (Jason Rogers is hitting .270/.317/.420 in 46 games for Pittsburgh’s AAA affiliate after being outrighted off the 40 man roster).

Related reading:

Hot Soup

RHP Brandon Woodruff, AAA Colorado Springs

Woodruff broke out in a big way last season, capturing Milwaukee’s minor league pitcher of the year award after posting a 2.68 ERA and leading the minor leagues with 173 strikeouts in 158.0 innings between high-A and AA. He’s only continued to improve his stock with a strong season in the extreme hitter-friendly environs of Colorado Springs. In 56.3 innings for the Sky Sox, he’s worked to a 3.04 ERA but with an impressive 1.97 DRA. The strikeout rate is down a skosh, but he’s limiting walks and generating plenty of ground balls to make up for it. Armed with a plus fastball and a slider that’s been called his “out pitch,” Woodruff may have leapfrogged Josh Hader as the first prospect arm that could get an extended trial in the big leagues this season.

Brandon Woodruff 3 K's. 1st/3rd pitches were 97 in Nashville gun. #SkySox pic.twitter.com/DXtDlvAIi1

— Brewers Prospects (@BrewerProspect) May 29, 2017

Three Down

LHP Josh Hader, AAA Colorado Springs Sky Sox
Hader made his Class-AAA debut with Colorado Springs last season and though he struggled to prevent runs in a tough pitching environment, his peripherals were still strong. That has not been the case this year. In 50.0 innings Hader has coughed up a 5.58 ERA; by Deserved Run Average, his 10.04 (!!!) mark leaves him as the 5th-worst qualified AAA pitcher this season. He’s allowing two and a half homers per nine innings, is walking almost five and half batters per nine, and his strikeout rate has fallen from 11.5 K/9 to 8.5 K/9. The Brewers still view him as a future rotation piece, but the funky arm-slot and regression with his already fringey command may wind up making a future relief role that much more likely.

OF Michael Reed, AA Biloxi Shuckers
At one time, strong on-base skills and defensive versatility had scouts pegging Reed as a future oft-used reserve outfielder or fringe regular at the big league level. He’s gotten a couple of brief looks in The Show, but the the acquisition of several new outfield prospects pushed the 24 year old down the depth chart and he found himself back in AA this season after a middling year with Colorado Springs last year. Reed has shown some power and is drawing walks at a good clip in the Southern League, but he is batting only .215 and has struck out in more than 29 percent of his plate appearances, by far the highest total in any of his minor league seasons. Given the fact that he’s been repeatedly passed over for call-ups while Milwaukee is currently playing with only two true outfielders on the big league roster, one has to wonder how much longer the Brewers will carry Reed on the 40-man.

3B Lucas Erceg, high-A Carolina Mudcats
Last year’s outstanding performance between rookie ball and the Midwest League left many optimistic that 2016 2nd-rounder would be a fast-rising prospect through Milwaukee’s system. Erceg has slowed down quite a bit during his first exposure to the Carolina League this year, however. Through 47 games the 22 year old owns a meager .216/.259/.342 slash, though he has popped five home runs over the fence. Erceg has continued the trend of low walk rates that we’ve seen early in his career, which may mean that he won’t be much of an OBP threat as he progresses. As my colleague Nicholas Zettel has noted, Erceg has faced some pretty tough competition in high-A, and given his age and pedigree it’s probably a bit premature to start freaking out about the longer-term projections. Erceg’s pronounced struggles do make it seem rather unlikely that he’ll see AA ball this year though, as many hoped that he would.

This morning I’m focusing on the bats. Let’s remember where the affiliates were on April 25:

And now, through May 12:

A couple of interesting notes:

• The Pacific Coast League continues to be the most favorable batting environment within the system, which should cause fans to place a pile of salt on their statistics citations for Lewis Brinson, Brett Phillips, Ryan Cordell, etc. Normalizing their performances to their environment should help one to present more realistic expectations for potential MLB call-ups.

• Keep an on Jacob Nottingham, who is heating up in May (.261 / .346 / .435 thus far). For the year, he’s faced brutal opposing OPS of .639 in a pitcher’s environment, so his overall total of eight extra base hits and six walks in 97 Plate Appearances look intriguing. If Nottingham can begin to find his power in this environment, it could signal a potential breakout ability in a more favorable (i.e., even an average) batting environment.

• Over the last couple of weeks, there has been a huge shift in the Midwest League at Wisconsin, causing competition levels to stratify there. Demi Orimoloye’s power surge looks especially impressive against opposing OPS of .681, so it will be interesting to see what midseason scouting reports reveal about his current performance and approach.

• Fans concerned about the performance of Lucas Erceg and Corey Ray, absent any specific scouting notes about their respective performances, should heavily weigh their tough opposition against their stat lines. Compared to the league opposition of .708 OPS, the median Carolina Mudcats regulars face opposition of .696 OPS. Within this environment, Ray has faced opponents with a .681 OPS, Erceg a .693 OPS. For this reason, throw aside the stats concerns and await scouting and approach notes.

Minor league stats are effectively meaningless, and especially meaningless without significant context for several reasons:

• First, the league environments themselves are not as readily or openly tracked as MLB, meaning that fans are not likely to have as much as an easy grasp on which parks play like Coors or which parks play like PetCo.

• A related factor impacting environment is that these professional baseball players are honing their skills, and often at different developmental stages. It’s easy to think this is more extreme in Class-A or Advanced A environments, where 19-to-20 year old Dominican Academy graduates might be playing with polished 22-to-23 year old college bats, and a set of recent draftees who might be anywhere from 19-to-21 years old, but this is easily just as extreme at Class-AA and AAA. In the advanced minors reside phenoms like Lewis Brinson, who has played each minor league level with little repetition, organizational depth like Victor Roache or Clint Coulter, 40-man Roster depth like Brent Suter and Michael Reed, and replacement players looking to either make their way back to the MLB or earn a living in the upper reaches of the minors.

• These different developmental stages obscure competitive environments prior to considering the fact that many of these minor league players may be working on specific assignments from the Front Office, meaning that the objective in the minor leagues is not as clear as in the MLB (ex., these players are not specifically in the minors to win, they are in the minors to develop).

• A player’s tools package, mechanics, and approach are most important, and it is unclear that minor league surface statistics easily translate those elements. A player who struggles through a minor league season while making a mechanical or approach adjustment may end up being a more desirable future asset than a player who shreds statistically but does not have the supporting tools, mechanics, and approach.

With this in mind, how do we read context into the minors? Baseball Prospectus offers several helpful statistics to this effect. One can use Opposing OPS to assess whether a phenom prospect is indeed phenomenal, or whether they are feasting on easy competition. Rickie Weeks was arguably a victim of this misunderstanding during his 2005 campaign, during which the 22-year old shredded the Pacific Coast League to the tune of .320 / .431 / .655. This looks all well and good until one determines that the .809 Opponent OPS Weeks faced was among the very weakest for Pacific Coast League regulars, and significantly easier than the .790 Opponent OPS faced by the median PCL player with 200 plate appearances. Brewers fans appear ready to commit a similar error of judgment with Lewis Brinson, who like Weeks is shredding the PCL (Brinson in his age-23 season) while facing some of the easiest competition in the league (.803 Opposing OPS versus .743 median for early season PCL regulars). Unlike 2005 Weeks, 2017 Brinson is also working in the easiest batting environment, which we can compare thanks to BPF, an index of park environment that Baseball Prospectus keeps for minor leagues.

Let me be clear: these statistics are not meant to diminish a player’s accomplishment. Lewis Brinson is hitting quite well, even with park factors and competition in mind; it’s just that these contextual statistics should help keep fans from expecting Brinson to immediately tear up the MLB when he reaches The Show.

With this background, here are the current batting environments faced by Brewers affiliates:

And now the pitching environments:

These tables should hopefully help to place individual performances in context. By using these tables, one can assess whether:

• A player is young or old, or of median age, for their respective league.
• A player is working in an environment that favors pitchers or batters.
• A player is facing easy competition, tough competition, or median competition.

Teammates to Watch:

• Brandon Woodruff versus Josh Hader. Thus far it’s easy to cite Brandon Woodruff’s 17/6/1 K/BB/HR line and 1.61 ERA as indicators of smashing success thus far, but the righty has faced opponents with a .702 OPS thus far. Granted, a .657 OPS-allowed still looks solid, and Woodruff is young in terms of age and developmental status in Class-AAA, so it’s not necessarily reason to be alarmed. Hader, on the other hand, appears to be struggling with command (15 K / 14 BB / 4 HR), but is facing opponents with a .169 Isolated Slugging Percentage. It will be worth looking for the scouting reports to emerge this spring, in order to assess any delivery or stuff issues, but Hader is receiving no benefits with his opponents faced.

• Biloxi Bats versus Carolina Arms. Oh, the prospects! So these guys are not necessarily teammates, but each of these units is facing difficult competition. Given that the Carolina pitching staff features several prospects excelling despite the difficulties (Corbin Burnes, Cody Ponce, and Freddy Peralta for example), midseason call-ups from the Carolina pitching staff could create an All-Team-Tough in Biloxi.

• Jake Gatewood versus Lucas Erceg. Lucas Erceg stormed the prospect scene after the 2016 draft, but few fans or analysts mentioned that the infielder faced relatively easy competition as a relatively polished college player in Class-A ball. Graduating to Carolina, the prospect is now facing a tough .644 Opposing OPS and is still knocking the ball around the ballpark (approximately 10 percent Extra Base Hits thus far). Jake Gatewood is coming into his own in Carolina, but along with some mechanical adjustments the youngster is also facing a .733 Opposing OPS. Granted, this is a case where notable mechanical adjustments are most important, as is the approach adjustment (21 K to 10 BB in 67 PA thus far). It is also worth noting that even though it seems like we’ve been following Gatewood forever, the corner prospect is still young for Advanced A ball.

• Wisconsin Pitching vs. Wisconsin Bats. Forget Colorado Springs, Appleton is also playing tough for pitchers in 2017, which is giving young arms like Trey Supak and Thomas Jankins a trial by fire. Both pitchers have acquitted themselves well thus far, despite the tough environment, which means that those K / BB / HR lines for both pitchers might be even more impressive than they seem at first glance. Meanwhile, it’s worth applying a large grain of salt to several of those blazing hot Wisconsin bats, as these prospects have faced a relatively easy path thus far. Yet, in the case of players like Demi Orimoloye and Mario Feliciano, it is worth noting that both are significantly younger than the Midwest League median age, so it is nice to see these professionals forge their paths at such young ages.

Given the training camp nature of spring, it also allows us to catch our first glimpses of some of the top prospects littered throughout the minor league system. Split squad games and non-roster invitations allow ample opportunity for farmhands to show their wares in major league games, which have more often been televised or broadcast on the radio in recent years. Even with the massive grain of salt that should be taken based on the paragraph above, it’s difficult not to engender some enthusiasm when a prospect shows off his tools during spring games. With that said, let’s take a look at some of the Milwaukee Brewers’ prospects who have shown well during the first two or so weeks of spring training game action:

Lucas Erceg
Milwaukee’s 2nd-round pick in last year’s draft, Erceg isn’t officially a part of big league camp but has been loaned from the minor league side several times and seen plenty of game action. In six games thus far he’s taken 11 at-bats while working a 1.500 OPS. He’s slugged two balls over the fence already and driven in seven while showing off his rocket arm at third base. Check out where this ball lands.

Jesus Aguilar
While he’s no longer technically a prospect, Aguilar has only 64 MLB plate appearances on his ledger in parts of three seasons and has yet to establish himself in the big leagues. The Brewers claimed the hulking first baseman off waivers in early February to give him a shot at earning a spot on the bench as a right handed power hitter and backup to lefty Eric Thames. Given his lack of positional versatility, the out-of-options Aguilar needed his bat to do some serious talking if he’s going to make the team out of camp. So far, so good, as Aguilar has scorched opposing pitchers to the tune of a .474/.524/.842 slash in 19 at-bats with two home runs. You can read more about his profile in this BPMilwaukee feature by Dylan Svoboda.

Ryan Cordell
The subject of one of yesterday’s features on BP Milwaukee, the PTBNL from the Jonathan Lucroy trade is making a strong impression during his first camp with Milwaukee. He’s already appeared in 10 games and in 15 at-bats has posted a 1.279 OPS while showing power (one homer), patience (six walks), and versatility in the outfield. He’ll likely begin the season in AAA, but Cordell has already earned praise from the big league manager.

Ryan Cordell is making an impression. CC: "He’s probably a little farther along than I expected, closer to the big leagues than I expected."

— Adam McCalvy (@AdamMcCalvy) March 8, 2017

Lewis Brinson
Ranked as Milwaukee’s #1 overall prospect, expectations are high for the 22 year old center fielder. He’s looked solid so far this spring playing center field while batting .273/.333/.455 across 22 at-bats. He’s stolen a base and shown off some impressive opposite-field power.

Mauricio Dubon
The 22 year old shortstop isn’t quite as polished as the other players we’ve discussed so far, as he just reached AA for the first time last year for a 62 game stint. After getting dealt to the Brewers over the winter, he’ll return to that level to start the 2017 season with Biloxi. Dubon has been a bit over-matched at the plate, collecting only two hits in 11 at-bats while striking out three times, but he’s flashed impressive leather already on several occasions while manning the shortstop position. Here’s his incredible play from yesterday’s game against the Padres.

Josh Hader
Even though he’s ranked by BaseballProspectus as the best Brewers pitching prospect, there are still questions about whether Hader will be able to remain as a starter long-term. To answer those doubts, he’s working diligently to master his “messed-up circle change” grip to give him a third offering along with his dominant fastball/slider combination. Thus far during the spring, Hader has been working in the 92-96 MPH range and touched 97 (per Brooks Baseball) while allowing just one earned run in 4.7 innings with a 5:2 K/BB ratio.

Paolo Espino
Despite possessing a rather strong minor league track record (3.63 ERA, 7.8 K/9, 1.9 BB/9 in 426.7 innings at AAA), the 30 year old Espino has never gotten a shot at the big leagues while previously with the Indians and Nationals organizations. Espino is in camp as a non-roster invitee and is likely ticketed for the Sky Sox rotation to begin the year, but he’s been impressive during his couple of looks this spring. He’s brandishing a five pitch mix (rising four seamer, sinker, changeup, slider, and curveball), sitting 88-92 MPH with his hard stuff and has yet to allow a run through a team-high 6.0 innings. He’s allowed just one hit, walked two and has whiffed four opposing batters. Perhaps he’s a candidate to become this year’s version of #2016BrewersAce Junior Guerra.

Stephen Kohlscheen
A former 45th-round pick by the Mariners (2010) who has previously spent time in Seattle’s and San Diego’s farm systems, Kohlscheen joined the Brewers on a minor league deal last year and was lights-out at AA Biloxi’s closer, posting a 2.54 ERA and 67:17 K/BB ratio with 23 saves across 49.7 innings pitched. His 12.1 K/9 last season was tops among Brewer farmhands (minimum 40 IP) and helped him earn another minor league deal with Milwaukee for 2017 that included an invite to big league camp. Thus far Kohlscheen has worked two scoreless appearances spanning 3.3 innings that have included just one hit allowed, no walks, and three punch-outs. He’s been throwing a rising fastball in the 92-94 MPH range along with a hard slider that sits 85-88 MPH. The 28 year old has never appeared in the big leagues, but given the Brewers wide-open bullpen situation, if he doesn’t break camp with the big league club he stands out as a candidate to receive a call-up at some point during the year.

Heading into the 2017 season, the California native has been ranked the 8^th best prospect in a loaded Brewers farm system according to Baseball Prospectus. I had the pleasure of speaking with him as he reflected on his 2016 season, discussed his offseason preparations, and touched on his goals for 2017.

I spoke to Erceg over the phone, as he was in Santa Clara visiting his old Menlo College team. Due to the extreme rainfall in the area, their stadium is completely underwater. He recently returned from Arizona, where many Brewers first-year prospects had spent a week with members of the organization.

“They were basically just checking up on me and 20-25 other guys to see how we have been doing. As soon as we got there, we immediately started off with FMS testing – which I believe is function, mobility, stability type of stuff. They wanted to see our range of motion, see how flexible we are, see what types of workouts we have been doing. We also did some body composition tests to see what our body fat percentage is.”

Prior to his trip to Arizona, Erceg had been enjoying his offseason.

“My offseason has been going great. It has been the longest period of time I have taken off of baseball so far. Still trying to get into the rhythm of figuring out what my schedule is. For the most part, I have been getting after it in the weight room. The Brewers told me to gain a little bit of weight, but stay lean. I have been working out in the weight room and been trying to take as much time out of the day to get out to the field or go to the batting cages to keep up with my routine, because I am always one to work as hard as I can.”

According to Erceg’s MiLB page, he stands at 6-foot-3 and weighs 200 pounds. However, Erceg mentioned to me he was down to 195 pounds or so towards the end of the season. “I have been eating nothing but gains – trying to fork down as much chicken, rice, and vegetables as possible. I have really been focusing on trying to eat the right things and staying away from the late night McDonald’s runs.” If you take a look at the 21-year-old, you can see there is a lot of room to add to his wiry frame. “I told them at the end of instructional league that I wanted to get to 210, maybe 215 – just to put on some muscle. But they told me don’t worry about gaining as much weight as possible. Just try to get stronger and keep your body fat percentage down.”

If it weren’t for Erceg’s lack of at-bats, his .497 slugging percentage would have placed him second in the Midwest League behind Eloy Jimenez. Prior to his first professional season, the third baseman showcased his power in college as well. He ranked second in the Pac-12 in home runs (11) and eighth in slugging percentage (.502) during his sophomore season at Cal. During his final college season at Menlo College, he hit 20 home runs in 56 games and sported a .639 slugging percentage. And like I mentioned earlier and in the video you can watch above, I was able to witness a pretty effortless three-run homerun in person off of his bat. If Erceg can put on 10 to 15 pounds of muscle, watch out.

“Everyone growing up asked me, “How do you hit the ball so far? How are you so good at hitting? You are so skinny”. Growing up, I never really touched a weight. I just worried about playing and trying to get better at the game of baseball, instead of worrying about how big I am. This offseason was definitely more of a step back from the game and work on actually trying to get bigger – but at the same time trying to improve my game.”

Outside of mainly focusing on gaining a few more pounds this offseason, the Menlo College product has been working on all parts of his game. He mentioned to me that he that his flexibility has been an issue for him in the past and that he has made an effort to improve in that area, especially his hip flexors. On top of that, Erceg has been working on staying below the ball when fielding ground balls.

Even after a fantastic 2016, there are still many areas to improve on when it comes to his game. 44 percent of his balls in play last year were hit on the ground and were primarily pulled to the right side of the field.

“I saw those stats and said to myself, ‘What am I thinking at the plate?’ I know every successful hitter in [the MLB] always has the approach to hit the fastball the other way and just reacting at off speed. For the most part, that has been my approach at the plate. But after this first offseason, I have kind of shied away from pulling the ball. My last season in college I got nothing but off speed, so I ended up pulling most of the balls that I hit. Coming into this season, I am really going to try to work on hitting the ball the other way with power. At the same time, if a pitch happens to be in, I can use my leverage and hit the ball out to right.  I think a lot of it has to do with my mentality at the plate. I do tend to get pull-happy, especially when I am doing well. If I am able to stick to my approach to hit the ball the other way, I think that will help me out in the long run.”

Heat Map from MLBfarm.com

While Erceg hit 44 percent of his balls on the ground last year, he hit another 35 percent as fly balls and 20 percent for line drives. If you were to compare his LD%/GB%/FB% to some Major League players from last season, his numbers match up with Jason Heyward, Kevin Pillar, Stephen Piscotty, and Maikel Franco. While that may not be the greatest collection of offensive talent you have ever seen, there is still plenty of room for improvement for the Brewers second round draft pick. Erceg just needs to find a way to elevate the ball more often, spray it to all parts of the field, and keep from rolling over pitches. I believe if he can make those adjustments, he could be a serious offensive threat.

As for the 21-year-old’s personality, I noticed that he was a people’s person right away when I watched him on the field last season. On the field, Erceg would be chatting with everyone – the pitcher, the shortstop, the third base coach, the runners on third base, you name it. The third baseman was always trying to spark up a conversation.

“I love talking to people. When I am playing, I am trying to separate myself from the game. If that’s talking to the 3rd base coach, or my shortstop, or anybody on the field, that is going to help me forget about my prior at-bat. It helps me get focused on doing what I have to do on the field to do all of the right things. I always try to have as much fun as possible when I am on the field.”

I reached out to Jake McKinley, Erceg’s former head coach at Menlo College, and got the chance to learn even more about Erceg as a player and as a person.

“I think on the field, I would say his strongest quality is being a very adaptable player. Regardless of the circumstance, he was always going to be ready to go. I think that is a tough thing for an amateur player to do. Really, just to have the maturity to play the game pitch to pitch and be present on that pitch – it was just something about him.”

McKinley also went onto say that the former Cal player was always able to clear his head each and every at-bat – one of the main reasons why the third baseman saw so much success at Menlo. He continued on to say that Erceg is even a better person off the field, someone who was just a “nice, humble, welcoming, and inviting human being”.

I asked the fourth year head coach about what Erceg could improve on as well.

“I think when he was playing for us, it was a circus at times. We would have as many as 50 scouts at a game, as many as 20 at a practice. I think inevitably there  are some distractions there and he handled himself so well. But at the same time, I think naturally a guy like him might put some pressure on himself to perform, might put some pressure on himself to get to the big leagues as soon as possible. While I think that is fine, I always had to remind Lucas like, ‘Hey man, don’t   forget to go out there and see how much fun you can have. Don’t forget to keep the pleasure greater than the pressure.’”

The initial impression that everyone has developed on Erceg after his first professional season is that he is a lean, power-hitting third baseman. However, I was surprised after Erceg shared a story with me regarding him and Brewers’ Vice President of Amateur Scouting Ray Montgomery. Erceg stated to Montgomery that he wanted to hit 20 home runs this upcoming season. Montgomery replied back that if Erceg can hit 20 home runs and steal 20 bases, he will buy him a steak dinner. Nothing better than giving one of your up-and-coming prospects a little bit of incentive. With that being said, not many scouts and experts foresee the third baseman having any base stealing abilities. McKinley thought otherwise:

“I always thought that [baserunning] was one of his strengths, because he’s got a great feel for the game. Speed wise, on a big league scale, I would say he is a pretty average runner – maybe slightly above. But he has long strides and can get to full speed pretty fast. I actually think he could be a base stealing threat this summer and hopefully when he makes it to the big leagues. He is really good when it relates to reading a pitcher and identifying tendencies and exposing them. I actually think that is an underrated part about him. He is a great baserunner.”

Erceg did steal eight bases in 26 games with Helena, but was only successful on one of four attempts with the Timber Rattlers. I would be surprised to see the 21-year-old steal double-digit bags, but maybe there is something we just don’t see yet. If stealing bags is something he can add to his arsenal, we may see him as one of the better prospects in the league.

In the limited time I saw Erceg in person while he played for Timber Rattlers this past season, I did notice he seemed a bit aggressive at the plate. After striking out 13.9 percent of the time in Helena, his strikeout rate spiked to 21.1 percent in Appleton. He was first pitch hacking and would chase some pitches out of the zone. While it didn’t necessarily hamper his offensive production, this is an aspect Erceg needs to address this upcoming season. This was also a part of the game that McKinley saw as something he could improve on.

“There were a lot of times he would get up there and swing first and maybe chase a pitch that was more of a pitcher’s pitch – as opposed to a pitch he could drive. Now it looks like in pro ball, maybe he addressed that a little bit. It is tough for me to say. But when I coached him, I would say – patience at the plate and understand who you are. He is a guy who can change the course of the game with just one swing of the bat and the opponents know that. In a lot of cases, they aren’t going to go right at him. They are going to try to pitch around him and induce a chase. I think he needs to be aware of that.”

It sounds as if Erceg will be working and training with his former coach and Menlo College teammates prior to him arriving at Spring Training in mid-February. McKinley mentioned to me that he reached out to his former player to see if he wanted to prepare for the upcoming season just like he did last year and figured it would help him get a routine going. He even pointed out that Erceg has had a wonderful impact on the younger kids on the team and that he has been coaching them up a little bit – unprovoked by the Menlo coaching staff.

2017 will be a pivotal year for the left-handed hitter. While no one is exactly sure where he will start the season, this will be his first full season as a professional. We will be able to get more of a feel for his potential and whether or not he can add to his frame, hit for more power, or maybe even steal a few more bases. There are certainly adjustments Erceg will need to make as he moves through the ranks, but after speaking with him and his college coach, I am pretty confident he will be working as hard as possible to make an impact on the organization.

Continuing age-based analysis of minor league statistics, the 2016 Midwest League could be the most interesting case yet. Unlike the Southern League or Pacific Coast League, the Midwest League featured a group of three different age levels with similar production, and two adjacent age groups that did not fall far. From age-21 to age-22 to age-23 players, Midwest League bats slashed .245 / .316 / .356, .249 / .318 / .352, and .247 / .317 / .353, respectively. On the outskirts, age-20 batted .249 / .307 / .367 while age-24 batted .252 / .315 / .333, giving the league an expansive middle ground of 345 players that can be judged by very similar production standards.

One might ask whether this reflects the nascent stages of minor league competition, perhaps where players may be closer to the same development curve, thereby exhibiting less stratification among minor league players. Perhaps Class-A is the first level at which “organizational lifers” emerge, or players hit their first professional ceiling and stick around for a year or two before heading to their next career. It would be worthwhile digging into a scouting explanation for this phenomenon, in order to see how the physical tools relate to the statistics; perhaps everyone (or almost everyone) at Class-A is still learning the strike zone, or pitch recognition, or some foundational trait that places the vast majority of players on the same level.

There are a number of notable bats that defined the Timber Rattlers in 2016. Isan Diaz produced one of the best seasons at the Class-A level, and although he did not win MVP, he certainly has the performance level worthy of consideration. Lucas Erceg also stormed the league out of the 2016 draft, demonstrating a completely different developmental stage (relatively polished college draftee) than Diaz. Along with Diaz and Erceg, several depth players produced interesting or good seasons, giving fans and writers more players to think about and watch during the 2017 campaign. Perhaps no one will be more interesting to follow than Monte Harrison, whose statistical line was damaged by a rough April and early-May, and whose hot streak was cut short by injury. Harrison has shown flashes of “putting it together,” so it will be crucial to see how he returns from injury.

Down in Florida, the Brevard County club had a rough season, mostly due to the bats. This level lagged behind in the system during 2016, and unfortunately, even age-based statistics do not allow one to reconsider many gems.

It is worth noting that Corey Ray produced a fine campaign, based on his age level and the fact that he was making his professional debut in an aggressive assignment. While Ray’s surface stats of .247 / .307 / .385 does not look very good, age-21 players in the Florida State League were notably worse than that production level, allowing one to see that Ray showed solid hitting, discipline, and (especially) strong isolated slugging. Even if one follows scouting reports to raise some questions about the hit tool, there is a sense that Ray’s tools are already showing up in his stat line, even if that line is depressed by his environment.

Related Reading:
Timber Rattler Arms
Making the Transition: Trent Clark
Lucas Erceg and Third Base Futures

Once fans come to Wisconsin for Isan Diaz, they can stay for other intriguing positional prospects, as the club is beginning to shape out its 2014 and 2015 draft legacies. At this turn, the low minors arms may be ahead of the low minors bats in the Brewers system, and Wisconsin arguably reflects that balance. Prospects such as Diaz, Trent Clark, Monte Harrison, Jake Gatewood, Lucas Erceg, and Troy Stokes, Jr., have a collection of solid tools, but their profiles thus far grade slightly behind their pitching teammates in terms of impact. Beyond these well-recognized names, one might even dig for some sleepers at Wisconsin, although the caveat about leaping to the next levels to define or change a ceiling apply here, too.

The lack of clearly-defined ceilings for several Wisconsin bats is not necessarily a concern at Class-A, since these players must advance through the next A-level club and make the leap into the upper minors before the probability of their respective ceilings becomes even clearer. Below, BaseballProspectus scout and writer James Fisher notes that a couple of Timber Rattlers have defensive profiles that are awaiting a step forward from the bat; there are even some prospects that need additional looks. In this sense, the 2016 Timber Rattlers effectively define (and headline) the Brewers loaded organizational depth even where they fail to define better than average MLB ceilings.

Midwest League Environment
Judging minor league players by their statistics is a tricky endeavor. First and foremost, since players are developing their tools at the minor league level, their actual performances on the field are not always indicative of their MLB ceiling or potential future value. Furthermore, if a player is honing in on one specific area of their respective toolbox, other areas of their performance may suffer in their statistics. In this case, it is somewhat possible to have a player move forward without necessarily showcasing each of their tools in their statistical record. Age and development levels can also impact a player’s performance; this is especially true in the Midwest League, for instance, where a 19-year-old performing in their first full season of professional play after being drafted out of high school would be expected to perform at a different level than a polished college player working in their age-21 or age-22 season.

With that in mind, one way to consider minor league statistics is by judging each player within their specific context of age, opposition strength, and league strength. For example, the Midwest League is a much more depressed environment than the Class-A counterpart South Atlantic League, which impacts how one can read statistics. League statistics were compiled for the first installment of this series, August 20-22, 2016:

With this in mind, I developed two charts to judge batting and pitching context for the Midwest League. 218 Midwest League batters have had regular play after the June draft or throughout the season, with a base threshold of 130 PA:

The 90th percentile is most elite, meaning that a player facing .661 opposingOPS pitchers is facing tougher competition than 90 percentof the league, or a .300 TAv is better than 90% of Midwest League regulars (i.e., the other way around, that player would be in the Top 10 percent of production). In terms of age, the 20th percentile is old for the level, the 90th percentile age is extremely young.

For pitchers, 228 arms have worked 30 innings or more:

In this case, a 2.55 FIP is better than 90% of regular hurlers, and a pitcher that faces a .682 opposingOPS is facing tougher competition than 90 percent of the Midwest League regular arms. One can note that comparing the full Midwest League with “regular players,” regular batters (130+ PA) have posted a much better median TAv than the league median (.252 TAv for regulars, .243 TAv for the full league). So, one might expect a regular batter to have a better performance in this sense (depending on their age and strength of opposition, of course).

Wisconsin Batters Scouted
The following entries are built from BP James Fisher’s scouting notes, which were compiled during an early August series in Appleton. All statistics compiled on August 24, 2016.

Catchers
Max McDowell (80th percentile TAv, 50th percentile age, 50th percentile competition): McDowell is a large framed catcher with strength throughout. At the plate, he starts with an even stance and rests the bat on his shoulder before moving his hands up to his ear. Has slightly below average batspeed and doesn’t recognize spin. Behind the plate, McDowell has a low seat with a quiet frame. He struggles to handle quality stuff, with changeups especially giving him fits. Boxes plenty of balls as well as passed balls through the wickets. Throws well with 1.93-1.98 pop times, and the footwork helps the arm play up a touch. AA/AAA Ceiling. Wisconsin Note: McDowell has produced an excellent TAv at a median age, and against median competition.

Natanael Mejia (below 20th percentile TAv, 20th percentile age, 90th percentile competition): Large, soft bodied catcher. Mejia starts from a slightly open stance and high hands. Below average batspeed and limited contact ability. Defensively, he moves ok behind the plate, but lacks the ability to handle quality stuff. A Ceiling. Wisconsin Note: As a notably old player, Mejia faced the most difficult competition and produced a poor TAv.

Infielders
Luis Aviles (50th percentile TAv, 60th percentile age, 30th percentile competition): Aviles has a lean athletic frame with wiry strength throughout. From an even, upright stance in the box with his hands at his shoulder, Aviles has average batspeed but struggles with pitch recognition at present. Aviles can really pick it in the field. He moves side-to-side well and has body control for short. The arm is a 6, with true carry through the bag and ability to make throws from different angles. At this point, Aviles is a defensive specialist that lacks bat to ball. AA/AAA ceiling unless light comes on with bat. Wisconsin Note: Aviles is a slightly younger than median player with a median TAv against relatively weak competition.

Isan Diaz (80th percentile TAv, 90th percentile age, 40th percentile competition): Athletic, medium framed second baseman with premium offensive toolset. At the plate, Diaz combines a quality bat path with a slight uppercut. It’s a loose, easy swing with above average batspeed and barrel awareness. Diaz understands his weight transfer, at times making hitting look easy, and he really lets his hands do the work. The ceiling is a 6 hitter with at least average pop. In the field he is just a step short for shortstop and has trouble going right. At second his feet will be average and the arm will play.
MLB Role: First division regular with all-star potential.
Wisconsin Note: Diaz is among the youngest players in the Midwest League, and produced a notably above average TAv against near-median competition.

Lucas Erceg (90th percentile TAv, 60th percentile age, 30th percentile competition): Tall, lean framed third baseman with feel to hit and plus arm. There is room for strength projection here. At the plate, Erceg starts tall with slightly open stance and hands at his ear, combining 6 bat speed with hands that work and a loose swing. Can get long at times, but makes adjustments. In the field, he has soft hands and enough range for third. Erceg’s arm is a weapon.
MLB Role: Regular at 3B.
Wisconsin Note: As a relatively young player facing relatively weak competition, Erceg is producing an elite TAv.

Jake Gatewood (30th percentile TAv, 80th percentile age, 40th percentile competition): Gatewood is a tall, lean framed infielder with plus power and arm strength. At the plate, he starts from an even stance with his hands at his shoulder, and has average bat speed. However, Gatewood struggles to make adjustments, and spin will always give him trouble. The raw power is a 7, but he lacks enough contact to get there. Gatewood is mixing time between third and first at present with enough range and arm for third, but he needs to hit. AA/AAA ceiling unless bat takes big jump forward. Wisconsin Note: Gatewood remains notably young at Class-A, and is producing a below average TAv against near-median competition.

Jonathan Oquendo (below 20th percentile TAv, 80th percentile age, 80th percentile competition): Tall, lean frame with athleticism. Oquendo starts at the plate with an even stance and his hands at his shoulder. The bat path is inconsistent, but he does have average batspeed. Oquendo doesn’t like spin and is susceptible to it on outer half. With long lanky strides, he is a slightly below average runner. DH’ed in my look. Hold on ceiling until further looks. Wisconsin Note: Oquendo is a notably young player facing very tough competition, and is producing a poor TAv.

Alan Sharkey (below 20th percentile TAv, 50th percentile age, 50th percentile competition): Medium, strong framed first baseman with strong lower half. At the plate Sharkey’s bat speed and pitch recognition are lacking. There is power potential from strength in frame, but he won’t make enough contact to reach it. Average at best at first base. Has reached ceiling. Wisconsin Note: As a median age player against median competition, Sharkey posted a poor TAv.

Outfielders
Carlos Belonis (below 20th percentile TAv, 60th percentile age, below 20th percentile competition): Tall, lean framed outfielder with athleticism. Belonis starts with a closed front foot and his hands above his head at the plate, and he strides closed. He has average bat speed, but an inconsistent swing path and approach leave him behind. He often guesses on pitches and huntsfor fastballs because he struggles with spin. In the field Belonis has an average arm and enough athleticism to handle a corner outfield spot. A/AA ceiling at best. Wisconsin Note: Belonis faced weak competition and was relatively young for Midwest League, and he posted a poor TAv.

Trent Clark (60th percentile TAv, 90th percentile age, 40th percentile competition): Strong, medium framed, athletic outfielder with plus tools at the plate and the field. Starting at the plate with a slightly open stance and his funky hands at shoulder, Clark’s plus batspeed and a consistent bat path lead to loft. The power will come as the plate discipline does for Clark; there is plenty of strength and batspeed to project average power. In the field he is still recovering from leg issues, but is running okay (4.10, 4.12, 4.38, 4.12, 4.44). Handles center at present with solid jumps and routes, but most likely a corner outfielder with enough arm for right.
MLB Role: 4th OF/Regular.
Wisconsin Note: Clark is among the youngest players, and posted a slightly better than average TAv against near-median competition.

Brandon Diaz (below 20th percentile TAv, 60th percentile age, below 20th percentile competition): Diaz is a small framed, athletic outfielder with batspeed and defensive tools. Starting at the plate with open stance and hands at shoulder, Diaz has average batspeed and some feel for the barrel. Runs okay in left and has an average arm. Only 3 AB’s. Need more of a look. Wisconsin Note: Diaz has a poor TAv at a relatively young age facing weak competition.

Troy Stokes Jr (80th percentile TAv, 80th percentile age, 30th percentile competition): Stokes is a small framed athletic outfielder with strength throughout. Physically maxed out. At the plate he starts with an even stance and his hands at his shoulder, and gets into a slight bat wrap at times and messes up his timing. Stokes has average bat speed but struggles with pitch recognition. Isn’t a burner with 55 run times. Interesting routes in LF at times but is solid. Tweener 4th outfielder type when all is said and done. AA/AAA ceiling. Wisconsin Note: Stokes is notably young and facing relatively weak competition, and is posting a notably above average TAv.

DL:
Tucker Neuhaus (90th percentile TAv, 60th percentile age, below 20th percentile competition); Juan Ortiz (below 20th percentile TAv, 60th percentile age, below 20th percentile competition); Monte Harrison (20th percentile TAv, 80th percentile age, 50th percentile competition)

James Fisher is a BaseballProspectus scout and author.

• Ramirez himself
• Yadiel Rivera
• Luis Jimenez
• Hector Gomez
• Elian Herrera
• Jason Rogers
• Luis Sardinas
• Hernan Perez
• Will Middlebrooks
• Aaron Hill
• Colin Walsh
• Jake Elmore
• Jonathan Villar

Jonathan Villar has certainly shown he has the capability to be an everyday player with his outstanding season this year. While he’s been making most of the starts at third base since Orlando Arcia’s call-up, he probably profiles better at second base over the long-term. I like Hernan Perez as well as anyone, but even with his modest breakout campaign this season he’s probably more valuable in a super utility role than he would be playing everyday at the hot corner.

Again, that leaves third base as a relatively unsettled position as the team looks to the future. Milwaukee has long had a hole in their farm system at the third base, which helps to explain why so many retreads and never-were’s have been cycled through the position at the big league level of late. A long-term solution may have finally come, however, in the form of the club’s second-round selection from this summer’s draft, Menlo College’s Lucas Erceg.

Since being selected 46th overall a couple of months ago by Ray Montgomery and his staff, Erceg has done nothing but hit in the professional ranks. The 21 year old began his career in the Pioneer League, which proved to be of little challenge to him. In 26 games and 115 plate appearances, Lucas posted a video game-like .400/452/.552 slash line with 11 extra base hits (including two home runs). He even swiped eight bags, as well. The Pioneer League is considered an offensive league, but even in that context Erceg’s .333 TAv with Helena is mighty impressive.

The youngster quickly earned a promotion to the Midwest League and suited up for his first game with the Wisconsin Timber Rattlers on July 20th. Full season low-A ball is considered to be more advanced than the short season rookie leagues, but that hasn’t stopped Erceg from toying with opposing pitchers. After a 2-4 performance last night (including a home run), the third baseman is boasting a .299/.340/.526 slash with six home runs in 147 plate appearances.

BP Scout James Fisher recently published an eye-witness report on Erceg to provide some scouting context to go along with his ridiculous early-career numbers. On the 20-80 scale, Fisher grades Erceg as follows:

40 Hit || 50 Power || 35 Speed/Baserunning || 50 Glove || 70 Arm

Fisher notes that while Erceg has above-average bat speed, his swing can get long and he struggles with quality breaking pitches. He also adds that though Erceg has plus raw power, his in-game power plays down because of holes in his swing, and that his swing-and-miss tendencies make him a rather high-risk prospect. He does have room to add to his lean 6’3″ and 200 lb frame, which should give him more home run power as he matures. In the field, Fisher notes that Erceg loves to show off his plus-plus arm (he pitched in college with a 95 MPH fastball) and that he’s got the proper range and instincts for third base. He won’t be a base stealer at the big league level, but he’s steady enough on the bases and can go from first to third when necessary.

As mentioned above Fisher believes there’s considerable risk with a prospect like Erceg, but if it all comes together for Lucas he projects as a major league regular at the hot corner with power to all fields.

Lucas Erceg 3-run HR, 8th of the year #TRats https://t.co/wyftTnGiFp

— Brewers Prospects (@BrewerProspect) August 26, 2016

@cruzdaddario @BrewerProspect: Lucas Erceg bare hand grab & throw #TRats https://t.co/yrxn8iIMzc

— Bryan Buchholz (@BryanBuchholzNV) August 21, 2016

Fisher is not the only one who sees a potentially exciting future for the third baseman. In Tuesday’s Minor League Update on the BP main site, Mark Anderson said of Lucas: “Erceg has continued to crush the ball with the look of a fast-moving prospect. Even a move to High-A to start next season is unlikely to really challenge Erceg, and he should see Double-A in short order, giving such a polished hitter the first real test of his professional career.”

There have been questions about Erceg’s makeup, including this tweet from Fangraphs’ Eric Longenhagen during the draft:

Erceg has been connected to Milwaukee for a while. Huge talent, big time off-field questions.

— Eric Longenhagen (@longenhagen) June 10, 2016

I have spoken with another scout as well who concurred with Longenhagen, who told me that Erceg’s poor makeup turned a lot of area scouts off on him. That same scout mentioned that the Brewers don’t value makeup as much as other organizations do, and to Erceg’s credit he is doing everything he can to shed that stigma. After having to transfer from Cal to Menlo College for academic reasons, Erceg took and passed a 24 credit course load in the fall semester to become eligible to play this past spring. He told BPMilwaukee’s Travis Sarandos, in an interview for Disciples of Uecker, that he’s doing his best to fall in line with his teammates:

“When I first got [to Appleton] I kept myself from thinking that I know everything … For me, it’s just been ‘keep quiet, do whatever my teammates do.’ They’ve obviously been doing all the right things, and they’ve helped me adjust to the promotion and the higher standard of professional baseball.”

With his off-field issues hopefully in the past, Erceg can continue to focus on keeping up his outstanding start to his professional career. If Anderson is correct and Erceg begins next season at AA, realistically he might only be a year or two away from the big leagues. Before free agent import Aramis Ramirez, the last Brewer to start three or more consecutive Opening Day games at third base was Jeff Cirillo, who started four straight from 1996-99. If all continues to go well in the development of Lucas Erceg, he could very well become the club’s next long-term starter at third base in relatively short order.