Our Milwaukee Brewers sent eight representatives to the Fall League to suit up for Peoria (and later, a ninth player headed down to pitch for Mesa) so let’s take a moment to recap how well those players performed in the so-called “prospect finishing school.”

LHP Daniel Brown

Brown, a fastball-slider lefty who works in the low-to-mid-90s, enjoyed an excellent AFL. In nine appearances he covered 12.0 innings, allowing only eight hits, four walks, and a 3.00 Earned Run Average (ERA). Deserved Run Average thought his performance was nearly perfect; his DRA came in at 0.12 for a DRA- of 2.5! (DRA- measures DRA in league context, with 100 as average and the lower the number, the better).

RHP Bowdien Derby

The Javelinas used Derby as a starter in the AFL, and he toed the slab to begin seven games while logging 26.3 innings pitched. He did so with a modest 4.78 ERA, though DRA- (86) still assessed Derby as 14 percent better than the average pitcher on the circuit. Derby’s 18:9 strikeout:walk ratio wasn’t exactly inspiring, and we’ll see if the AFL performance that followed up a decent season as a swingman for Colorado Springs is enough to convince some team to pick him in this year’s Rule 5 Draft. Derby was left unprotected by the Brewers.

RHP Jon Olczak

Olczak turned in one of the most stellar campaigns of any reliever on the AFL circuit this year. He logged a 1.50 ERA across 12.0 innings, striking out 13 while allowing only eight hits and five walks. DRA- (45) valued his work as 55 percent better than his league-average cohorts. This comes after a terrific 73 DRA- in 56.3 innings for Double-A Biloxi during the regular season, and it wouldn’t come as a surprise to find out that the fastball/slider slinging Olczak (who sits 92-94 MPH) winds up generating plenty of Rule 5 interest in advance of next month’s draft.

RHP Miguel Sanchez

The 24 year old Sanchez put together a surprising pop-up season in 2018, advancing from Class A-Advanced all the way up to Triple-A before earning a shot at the Fall League. He continued to be effective in Arizona, posting a 3.60 ERA in 10.0 innings. He struck out eight while walking three, generating ground balls at a 65 percent rate. DRA- (74) saw his performance as well above average for the league.

RHP Aaron Wilkerson

After a truncated regular season split between Triple-A and the big leagues, the Brewers sent Wilkerson as a late addition to the AFL so that he could stretch back out in advance of pitching in winter ball in the Dominican Republic. Wilkerson joined the Mesa Solar Sox and appeared in three games, tossing four scoreless innings with three strikeouts and three walks.

C Mario Feliciano

Injuries limited Feliciano to just 46 games between the Arizona Rookie League and Class-A Advanced in 2018, so the Brewers assigned him to the Fall League to try and catch him up with some addition reps. It didn’t work out, though, as injuries unfortunately halted Feliciano’s progress once again. After only two games and six plate appearances (that included a hit and two walks), he was sidelined with discomfort in his throwing shoulder that led to arthroscopic surgery at the beginning of November. He should be ready to go again come next spring.

UTIL Weston Wilson

A jack-of-all-trades utility man, Wilson was highly impressive during the AFL campaign, batting .364 average /.462 on-base /.636 slugging percentage in 39 plate appearances for a True Average of .387. He clubbed a double, a triple, and two home runs, and even stole a pair of bases, too. A former 17th-round draft pick, more and more are coming around to the idea that the 24 year old Wilson has the ability to be a big leaguer after his terrific season between Class A-Advanced, Double-A, and the Arizona Fall League in 2018.

OF Trent Grisham

This former first-round pick, on the other hand, has plenty of people doubting that he’ll ever make it to The Show based on what he’s been showing lately (and really since being picked in 2015). Grisham’s passive approach has led to walks aplenty as a professional, but not much in the way of batting average of hard contact. Grisham hit .133/.304/.133 with 17 strikeouts in 57 AFL plate appearances, leading Mark Anderson of the BP Prospect Team to comment recently that “his comfort in the box and overall feel for hitting are seemingly non-existent at this point.”

2B Keston Hiura

Hiura is Milwaukee’s top prospect for good reason. Often described as a “hitting savant,” Hiura led the AFL in hits (31), RBI (33), and total bases (54). His five home runs were one off the league lead and his .934 OPS ranked sixth overall. Hiura’s overall slash was good enough for a .352 True Average, and he was so good so often that the BP Prospect Team seemed almost annoyed that they needed to keep writing about him. Hiura’s tremendous performance helped net not only the AFL Championship trophy, but earned him some well-deserved personal hardware, too.

#Brewers‘ hitting machine Keston Hiura is the 2018 @MLBazFallLeague MVP after hitting .323 with 5 homers and a league-leading 33 RBIs in 23 games. More from @wboor: https://t.co/Qbc6keDe54 pic.twitter.com/f47t6zO7fR

— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) November 17, 2018

Yes, Grandal or Realmuto would represent significant upgrades. But in the meantime, David Stearns, Craig Counsell, and the rest of the Brewers staff have been able to squeeze great value out of the current crop of time-shares and journeymen. Looking beyond the major league roster, catcher is a position full of surprising contributors up and down the organizational ladder. What follows is an overview of some of those contributors, as well as some brief notes on their outlook for the 2019 season and beyond. Upgrading would be nice; staying the course is probably fine, as well.

Major League Options

Player Name: Plate Appearances, Batting Average / On Base Percentage / Slugging Percentage, Wins Above Replacement Player (WARP)

Manny Piña; 337 PA, .252/.307/.395, 1.7 WARP
For the second year in a row, Piña handled the lion’s share of catching duties for Milwaukee. He continued to be a steady performer, offering tolerable offense and sturdy defense. His offensive production fell off some, relative to his breakout 2017 campaign, thanks to a slow start and a dip in Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP). Piña turned it on in the second half, hitting .295/.328/.429 after the break even as he lost playing time to immortal folk hero Erik Kratz.

With just over three years of service time on his major league clock, Piña is controllable for three more seasons through the arbitration process. He’ll be 34 by then, so it’s likely that someone else will have wrested away the bulk of available playing time behind the dish. Still, he handles a pitching staff well, and figures to get plenty of turns through the order in 2019 barring a major roster shakeup.

Erik Kratz; 219 PA, .236/.280/.355, 1.4 WARP
Erik Kratz came to the Brewers via a surprise trade with the Yankees, and wasted little time in endearing himself to fans and teammates alike. Though he didn’t bring much of a big league résumé into Milwaukee, he performed quite well in limited time, making up for his anemic offensive output with superlative glove work (11.1 Adjusted Fielding Runs Above Average in fewer than 500 defensive innings!).

Kratz elected free agency when he was removed from the Yankees’ 40-man roster prior to the 2018 season. He re-signed with New York before his trade to Milwaukee, but finished the year with fewer than six years of big league service time to his name. He can be controlled via arbitration for the 2019 season, though at age 39, he may have retirement (or a late career surge as a knuckle-balling reliever) on his mind. I’m not betting on a return, much as my heart hopes otherwise.

Stephen Vogt; Did Not Play in Majors (Shoulder Surgery)
All-around good guy Stephen Vogt was limited to 9 plate appearances for the Biloxi Shuckers in May before undergoing season-ending shoulder surgery. It was the second major shoulder operation of Vogt’s career; his big league future is in jeopardy. I’m not aware of any public information on his rehab, but Vogt could be controlled via arbitration in 2019 if he’s able to work his way back to the ball field.

For his career, Vogt is a .251/.310/.416 hitter, good for a strong .267 True Average (TAv). He’s below-average with the glove, though, and struggled to throw out base runners even before re-injuring his throwing arm. He’s well-loved among his teammates, but Vogt’s path back to the majors may be as a reserve first baseman or a DH.

Jacob Nottingham; 196 PA, .281/.347/.528 in Triple-A
Public opinion of Nottingham was fairly sour heading in to the year, and it’s not too difficult to see why: A .209/.326/.369 slash line in your second year of AA isn’t going to win over many casual fans. Biloxi is a run-suppressing environment, though, in a tough league for hitters. So that same ugly triple-slash translated to a barely-above-average.264 TAv. This year, with much better baseball-card stats courtesy of Colorado Springs, Nottingham’s TAv in the minors was all the way up to .282.

Expecting that kind of production in the big leagues, at least at first, is probably foolish. In his (very) limited time in Milwaukee, Nottingham compiled just 24 plate appearances and looked a tad over-matched at times, striking out on eight occasions. He also drew four walks, to his credit, and the sample size is far too small to be seriously examined. Most excitingly, Nottingham can seriously hurt a baseball when he finds one in his sweet spot, to the tune of 450+ feet. He’s made tremendous strides with the glove over the last few years, transforming himself into something approaching an average defensive catcher. Couple that with league-average-or-better offense at the position, and he still has the ability to produce sneaky value for the Brewers over the next six seasons. (Catchers in 2018 batted .232/.304/.372, so Nottingham doesn’t have to turn into Pudge Rodriguez to give the Brewers a boost.) I’m hoping he piles up a couple hundred big league plate appearances next season.

Jett Bandy; 216 PA, .292/.353/.510 in Triple-A
Bandy broke camp with the Brewers, but failed to impress. He hit .188/.268/.266 with shaky defense in 24 games before being removed from the roster and passed over on waivers. The 28-year-old came alive in Triple-A, but he’s reaching do-or-die status as a major league contributor. He’ll have to contend with at least two of the above names on the depth chart, and will likely struggle to find big league playing time should he remain in the Brewers organization. Still, he’s youngish enough and talented enough that he has a chance to shed his current quad-A label and become a solid backup with some pop.

Prospects and Depth

Christian Bethancourt; 418 PA, .297/.328/.506 in Triple-A
Brought in on a minor league pact, Bethancourt played very well in his return from the pitcher’s mound. He has soft hands behind the dish, and a good arm. He also hit a bit in Colorado Springs, with 20 home runs and a nifty .271 TAv. One knock on his offense: He gave away plenty of walks as a pitcher, but largely refuses them as a hitter.

Bethancourt was brought into the organization on a minor league pact. There will be plenty of plate appearances available for catchers in AAA next year, but it’s no guarantee that Bethancourt will be making the move to San Antonio along with the rest of the organization’s most advanced minor leaguers. Plenty of rebuilding clubs may take a roll of the dice on the former top prospect.

Dustin Houle and Max McDowell, Advanced A & Double-A
These two are the same age, and at about the same stage developmentally. Houle was drafted out of high school way back in 2011; McDowell followed from college in 2015.

Houle is a big-bodied catcher without a true carrying tool. He’s got a decent arm and is fairly strong, but the lack of a hit tool cramps his game power. He’s a nice organizational depth piece, but something very strange will have happened if he sees major league time in 2019.

McDowell has a bit more upside, with a strong throwing arm, decent athleticism, solid glove, and some untapped raw power. He flashed a nice bat in Wisconsin in 2016, but his hit tool hasn’t progressed much as he’s moved up the ladder. He’s got a chance to turn into a light-hitting backup at the highest level.

Mario Feliciano; 165 PA, .205/.282/.329 in Advanced A
2018 was basically a lost season for the 19-year-old, who battled back from an arm injury to play in 42 games for the Carolina Mudcats. He started slow in June, showed signs of life in July, then cratered in August. It was a disappointing year for a player who impressed in 2017 as one of the youngest prospects in the Midwest League. Ultimately, though, I see little reason to dampen long-term expectations. Catching at Class-Advanced A is an almost laughable challenge for a 19-year-old. He should return for another round in 2019, and I expect him to play pretty well. Keep in mind that the Carolina League is hard on hitters, so his stat line may not be all that impressive. The fact that he’ll be there at all, though, at 20 years old? Impressive. The defense could use some work, and he has plenty of time for that. Meanwhile, he could develop into a .270 hitter with a line-drive approach and average power.

Feliciano is currently playing in the Arizona Fall League to make up for some of his lost time this year. It’s not working, though: He’s only worked his way into two games, with one single in four at bats.

Payton Henry; 389 PA, .234/.327/.380 in Advanced A
Henry had a rough April and a tremendous May, followed by an acceptable June and July and a ghastly August and September. He’s a bat-first prospect with plus raw power, but he struck out in about 32 percent of his plate appearances. He needs to work on his receiving and his arm if he wants to stay behind the plate; he becomes a much less exciting prospect if he moves to first base or an outfield corner.

Worth Noting
Finally, backstops David Fry and Robie Rojas are due a mention here. Fry hit .315/.406/.563 while playing catcher, first base, and third base for the rookie league Helena Brewers. He drew 29 walks and struck out just 42 times in 261 plate appearances. Rojas, a 38th-round pick in 2017, spent plenty of time on the 7-day Disabled List and was relegated to the minor league taxi squad. He managed just 66 plate appearances on the year, including 13 at Triple-A, and hit surprisingly well in a (very small) 13-game sample in Carolina. All together, he had a line of .304/.409/.393.

Fry’s rookie league stats, while nice, are by and large worthless, and I have no idea what to make of Rojas at this point. But I’ll be curious to see what the organization does with both of these prospects in 2019.

Stearns just loudly answered that question this trade deadline.

What is fascinating about each of these trades is that they are fantastic in the sense of bolstering an MLB roster, in order to ensure that this stretch run features as few weaknesses as possible, while also potentially being over-pays in each case. Yet it should be stressed that these overpays are palatable for several reasons: the Brewers maintain a largely controllable roster that is also relatively inexpensive; the Brewers have a relatively large set of players that have been minor leaguers long enough to need potential 40-man roster protection entering 2019; and, perhaps most importantly, there is an incredible amount of role risk involved with each player. These trades should provide grounds for further analysis into when and how potential overpays are helpful to a team, and they should certainly provide further evidence that WARP/$ is not the sole determination of a trade’s potential value or impact.

Grading the System: 2016 || 2017

• Make no mistake about it, in terms of developing multiple quality pitches, command, and velocity, Luis Ortiz could potentially have the best pitching role for the Brewers system; there was a time, two years ago even, where it would not have been absurd for Ortiz to fight for a top tier pitching role in the prospect ranking cycle (and, really, it was not absurd). But Ortiz has been around forever in the advanced minors, it seems, without working full seasons. For example, the injury-fighting righty has 225 innings at Double-A without working 100 innings in a season, and with 68 innings at the 2018 deadline he could potentially miss 100 innings once again. If Ortiz can take his next step forward in the Orioles’ system, he is absolutely a more valuable asset, in terms of roster surplus, than Jonathan Schoop (and it is not close!!!), but that strong 60 Overall Future Potential (OFP) / 50 likely grade entering 2017 looks much more improbable. Ortiz is eligible for the Rule 5 draft for the 2019 season and almost certainly must be protected by the Orioles.

• Jean Carmona just made the jump stateside for the Brewers in 2018, and thus remains a full four levels away from the MLB. Additionally, Carmona might even be another year away from a clearly defined MLB potential role. In this regard, I do not envy the job of MLB scouts and analytics personnel, as it’s not entirely clear for me how I would price Carmona’s potential future value in terms of long-term systemic development.

• At BP Milwaukee, Kyle Lesniewski describe the roles and risks associated with both Kodi Medeiros and Wilber Perez. Medeiros could become an impact reliever at the MLB level, and it’s not unlikely that some observers still believe that he could start in some capacity, as there will always be hold outs for that sort of role. Given Medeiros’s delivery and command profile, however, as well as his fastball, Lesniewski outlines the difficulties that Medeiros may have for reaching even an impact reliever profile. Medeiros is eligible for the Rule 5 draft entering the 2019 season, and almost certainly must be protected by the White Sox, while Perez had yet to play stateside in the Brewers system.

• Finally, I already detailed the roles and surplus value for Brett Phillips and Jorge Lopez, so I will not go into too much detail here. However, I will add that of each of the prospects included in this midseason deals, Phillips is arguably the most likely to have MLB floor and ceiling roles that both surpass the value of the trade return (which is not a knock against Mike Moustakas, he simply might only be in Milwaukee for a couple of months). With a prospect such as Corey Ray coming on strong in Double-A Biloxi, not to mention the considerable development of Troy Stokes Jr. at the advanced level as well, Milwaukee cannot necessarily lose sleep over trading away a depth outfielder from their stacked group when they are fighting a close divisional deficit and leading the National League Wild Card race.

So, readers will witness a couple of recurring facts in these trades: the Brewers largely traded away players that must be protected for 2019 to avoid their loss via the Rule 5 draft, or players with little-to-no stateside development experience (and thus years to reach MLB), and/or players with roles that may be replicated within a year. One need not believe that a player like Stokes will surpass Phillips, in terms of overall ceiling, to see the value of the young prospect’s potential to fill an MLB depth position in 2019. Phillips himself may not have had an opportunity in 2019 to take such a role. The same logic might apply to Quintin Torres-Costa and Bubba Derby. This should not be construed to mean that these current system prospects are categorically better than Phillips / Medeiros / Lopez; in fact, I would have ranked each of that trio ahead of their potential 2019 depth replacements. But once again, since systemic development, contending windows, and player development cycles are now orbiting a club that is contending for consecutive seasons (and the foreseeable future, hopefully), if it costs system depth roles to improve MLB weaknesses, the Brewers have to eat the risk of losing those ceilings.

I like when MLB trades can simply be called good baseball moves. For all the rebuilding narratives in Baltimore, Kansas City, and Chicago, the White Sox, Royals, and Orioles front offices arguably made sensible trades with quality returns that both have long and short time horizons and development cycles. Milwaukee is working as a true contender without trading from their most elite potential prospect stash. This is good all around.

Stearns priced out these converging development cycles and adroitly moved the future role risk to address an offense that absolutely needed help for a serious contending run. Just the other day I wrote, “At worst, Travis Shaw has simply begun a potential shift over to the right side of the infield, where he might serve as a viable first base option for 2019 should the Brewers and Moustakas exercise his mutual option for 2019,” without thinking that a realistic move to first base for Shaw could occur as early as this week. Now, with Jonathan Schoop in the mix for second base and Jesus Aguilar slumping, Shaw becomes a strong side platoon option at 1B to form a serious infield unit:

This infield could open 2019 should Stearns consider keeping both Moustakas and Schoop, and now the talk can turn to development cycles once more. While the Brewers continue to season second baseman Keston Hiura at the most advanced levels of the minor leagues, Schoop basically serves as an upgrade over the Jonathan Villar gamble (gambling that he’ll return to his 2016 form), thus giving the Brewers a quality starting option while Hiura completes his minor league development. While Hiura’s bat is arguably ready for the MLB, and has been mentioned as a potential MLB option by Baseball Prospectus in their latest Top 50 list, the infielder may need more work in the field after missing significant fielding development time due to an extended elbow injury. Once Hiura is ready in 2019, a Schoop / Hiura mix simply extends the #TeamDepth mantra, and the same can arguably said for the remainder of the infield.

Entering 2018, the Brewers system took a step back in terms of organizational rankings, due to a series of developmental setbacks for key prospects, MLB graduations, and trades. I began to highlight this during last year’s “Grading the System” feature, but as one can never predict baseball, the development cycles and potential OFP assessments calibrated for Corey Ray, Keston Hiura answered a crucial risk question (can he play 2B?), and a veritable gang of pop-up pitchers continued to march upward in the system, potentially boosting and extending the no-name, depth-oriented pitching staff into 2019. Make no mistake about it, the system might continue to rank in the middle of the league in terms of overall quality, and the set of clear potential impact roles (true 60 OFP+ roles) may end with Keston Hiura and Corey Ray should Corbin Burnes exhaust his rookie standing through the end of 2018.

Yet, given the instant development of 2018 First Round draft pick Brice Turang, the Brewers could demonstrate that they indeed nabbed an Elite Prep prospect that fell due to prospect fatigue. Turang could quickly help to boost the top of the system as an MLB potential role falls into place. Moreover, given the Brewers’ expanded efforts in International signings, as well as the quality use of signing bonus allocations in each of the last two MLB drafts, the lower minors could continue to host a variety of players that suddenly surge onto the prospect scene. While this does not make the Brewers system different than many other MLB systems, it provides a road map to how the club can continue to develop talent while contending. One could argue that it’s absurd to suggest that the Brewers “rely” on someone like Turang falling in the MLB draft, but this is exactly the type of prospect perception and role foresight that the Brewers must have if they are going to succeed while drafting in the bottom half of each round.

Of course, the notable graduations from the system should not be undersold as well. Now there are so many starters, depth roles, and trades from the Brewers prospect stock that I added a new category this year:

Now, with these graduates in mind, what does a somewhat thinner, but still rather interesting Brewers system look like?

Prospect Key
Top 10 Consideration
Top 30 Consideration
[Just Interesting]

Of course, it is also worth emphasizing how the system has been….decimated in key areas. Given the quick development by advanced prospects acquired from the major 2015-2016 trades, as well as the huge trades entering 2018 and during the recent deadlines, the pool of potential impact prospects acquiring via trade has waned:

This is an important category to consider simply because Milwaukee demonstrated how adroit trades could quickly rebuild a system and reform an MLB roster. It will be worth watching to see if the Stearns continues to attempt to find Jonathan Villar and Keon Broxton types via trade now that the club is solidly contending. Of course, one could argue that Stearns is always trying to find this player (be it Oliver Drake, or Jesus Aguilar, or even Alec Asher), but that it simply the fact that these players will not always come via trade.

Thanks to the mechanical corrections, good health, and overall development of Corey Ray, as well as the surging role of Troy Stokes Jr., the development of draft prospects arguably has a better outlook entering 2019 than it did prior to 2018. Given the advancement of Corbin Burnes into a relief role, Brandon Woodruff and Taylor Williams into respective swingman and depth relief roles, and Brett Phillips into a fourth outfielder, it is clear that the Brewers front office is considering all possible role developments with each player (rather than following a cookie cutter model, or a model in which each prospect must immediately receive playing time in their clearest future role). It is arguable that this type of development strategy could maximize roles ranging from Stokes to Zack Brown, Jake Gatewood, and maybe even Lucas Erceg.

Meanwhile, Milwaukee signed a couple of additional potential impact International Amateur free agents this July, continuing an attempt to build up the low minors. Carlos Rodriguez and Larry Ernesto are already making some noise in the Dominican Summer League, while prospects like Jose Sibrian and Jesus Lujano have made the leap stateside.

Frankly, this Brewers system will not look as strong, in terms of potentially elite impacts roles, as the one that received ranking for 2018 at Baseball Prospectus. Yet, as new cycles of player development depth emerge in the low minors, and the Brewers continue their unique form of MLB roster construction (clearly using all 40 roster spots for MLB-adjacent roles and frequently shuffling those roles), Milwaukee could be an organizational well-suited to do more with less. For if 2017 fired the opening shot that the Brewers can contend simply based on giving high floor players a chance to work in the MLB, 2018 is advancing that ideal and carrying it to deeper logical, promotional, and transactional extensions.

Photo Credit: Gary A. Vasquez, USA Today Sports Images

Part One: Cooper / Gatewood / Hiura

Throughout the season, I’ve attempted to provide contextual statistics that help fans read along with the box scores. If we are going to have to read imperfect information, we might as well know as many things as possible for the league. For example, in Brinson’s case, we have a swirling set of circumstances: although he’s very young for AAA Pacific Coast League, he’s also facing easy competition in an extremely friendly hitting environment. This does not diminish his tools, but it should add some salt to the stat line. To accompany this installment of the Midseason 2017 3 Up 3 Down, here is an attempt to provide a normalized index for the Brewers’ “regular” minor leaguers thus far. This exercise should also be taken with a grain of salt, as there are imperfections even with the information available about minor league players; for example, a player’s youth in a league may not necessarily make the league more difficult depending on their toolbox, or a player’s park environment also might not accurately reflect the impact on player development.

One benefit of normalizing statistics is that players can be compared across levels to some degree. So, I normalized a player’s On Base Percentage Plus Slugging Percentage (OPS) or OPS-allowed for pitchers by using:

• Individualized Opposing OPS normalized by league context (league median Opposing OPS for regulars).
• Batting and Pitching Park Factors (where available) normalized against median league park factors for regular players.
• Player age normalized by league median age for regular players.

Weighing these elements together, consider the Brewers batting minor leaguers with 100+ PA, and minor leaguer arms with 30+ IP (and available park factors). Tables are pasted below for maximal reading enjoyment. Batters are ranked from high-to-low to showcase the players whose OPS performance occurred against the “lowest” or toughest Opposing OPS, and pitchers are ranked from low-to-high to showcase the arms whose OPS performances occurred against the “highest” or toughest Opposing OPS. Take a grain of salt with this index, as age is highly favored, as is park factor. Park factor may also unduly impact opposing OPS, as there is a good argument to be made that such a number should not be park adjusted (since it already expresses context in a different manner). But, it’s an approximation of a batter or pitcher’s OPS performance against their environment, which may be something to keep in mind alongside scouting reports or other “naked” discussions of their performances.

The BPMilwaukee Editorial Staff (Nicholas Zettel and Kyle Lesniewski) contributed to this feature, as well as Craig Goldstein and John Eshleman from the Baseball Prospectus prospect team.

3 UP
LHP Nick Ramirez, AA Biloxi (picked by Kyle Lesniewski): The Brewers drafted Ramirez in the 4th round in 2011 out of Cal-State Fullerton to be a power-hitting first baseman. The power has always been there as the left-handed slugger clubbed 95 home runs in 685 minor league games, but his career appeared to have stalled out after a third straight season of hitting under .250 in Class-AA. Last fall, the Brewers asked Ramirez to switch back to the other position he handled during his collegiate career: left-handed reliever. After a six year layoff, Ramirez has shown a surprisingly good feel for mound work while navigating through the Southern League. He’s appeared in 28 games and tossed 42.0 frames, yielding only a minuscule 1.50 ERA. His 29:17 K/BB rate and 3.68 FIP are a bit more pedestrian than the ERA would suggest (though he is generating an absurd amount of infield fly balls at 23.8 percent), but again this guy hadn’t pitched in over a half-decade prior to 2017. Nick has flashed a 90-91 MPH fastball along with a changeup and curveball and has been able to hold opposing lefties to just a .180 batting average against. Oh, and he also has two home runs and a 1.207 OPS in 19 plate appearances as a hitter this year, too. Ramirez is set for minor league free agency this fall if Milwaukee doesn’t add him to the 40 man roster, but a switch to the mound should certainly lengthen what appeared to be a career on life support less than a year ago.

C Mario Feliciano, A Wisconsin (picked by Craig Goldstein): Was it obvious that Lucas Erceg was the better prospect than Mario Feliciano following the 2016 draft? Certainly, Erceg was the more polished ballplayer, and his quick ascent during the 2016 season allowed him to churn the hype machine on his draft position. But, separated within the BaseballAmerica pre-draft Top 500, the two were respectively ranked #72 and #103, which is not an extreme spread and not necessarily as impactful as separating the #5 prospect from the #36 prospect. Both Erceg and Feliciano were drafted in the second round, Feliciano as a Competitive Balance pick. The reports on Feliciano were optimistic about his ability to stick behind the plate from the get go, which also theoretically gives the youngster positional advantage over Erceg. This is not to say that I expect Erceg to drop out of the 2018 Top 10 and Feliciano to leap into the Top 10 (they both could be there!), but simply that there is not a clear chasm of value between Erceg and Feliciano in the long term, and in the grand scheme Feliciano may be the better pure future value prospect.

Goldstein on Feliciano: He’s cooled off of late but he has the athleticism to catch and his bat is potent enough to handle a switch off the position should it come to that.

IF Aaron Familia, Dominican Summer (picked by Nicholas Zettel): Don’t scout the stat line, I know, I know, but if you’re going to scout the stat line there’s not many places better to do so than the Dominican Summer League. These guys are so far from the MLB as to be literal dreams, but there’s still good reason to maybe eye up some peripherals and see how the young guys in the league are performing. Familia is one of the Brewers’ 2016 signings from the July 2 period, and he returned to the Dominican Summer League after a rough first stint during his age-17 season. Now, Familia has found his footing, walking 10 times in 68 PA as of this writing, along with eight extra base hits and a .278 batting average. That walk rate is above average even for the 2017 DSL, as is the extra base hit total (the 2017 DSL has a .238 AVG with five percent of plate appearances resulting in an extra base hit). One ought to keep an eye on Familia, as the Brewers have recently been aggressive in promoting young DSL talent to the USA midseason (Franly Mallen comes to mind, for example). If Familia continues to prove himself, he could add to the bulk of amazing high risk talent at the bottom of the Brewers system.

3 Down
OF Corey Ray, Advanced A Carolina (picked by Craig Goldstein, Josh Eshleman):
At Baseball Prospectus, Christopher Crawford praised the Corey Ray pick following the 2016 draft: “He can flat out hit, and he has underrated pop from the left side. He’s also a guy who can steal 30-40 bases, and I give him at least a chance to stick at center. The upside is high, but it’s the extremely high floor that makes me love this pick. Good job, Milwaukee.” More measured debate focused on the potential issue of Ray as a ‘tweener (centerfield versus left field), with additional questions arising about how Ray’s offensive profile might play should he become a left fielder. Perhaps that high floor ‘tweener looks pretty solid, although scouting questions are eating at that high ceiling.

Goldstein on Ray: Ray hasn’t had a bad season by any means, but in my viewing he didn’t pop like you’d think a top-five selection would, a sentiment echoed by others I’ve talked to.

Eshleman on Ray: The primary concern among scouts is Ray’s hit tool, and he has struggled with velocity in 2017, a primary reason has k-rate has ballooned over 30%.

RHP Marcos Diplan, Advanced A Carolina (picked by Kyle Lesniewski): Diplan was mentioned as one of the prospects to keep an eye on in the Top 10 Prospects post from the BP main site earlier this year, but he’s struggled mightily to prevent runs ever since a midseason promotion to high-A last season. His fastball can hit the mid-90s and he flashes a plus slider, which has helped him miss bats at a rate of 9.6 K/9 this season. But his control appears to have taken a step in the wrong direction, as he’s issued walks at an 11.5 percent clip this season and has already unleashed nine wild pitches. Diplan’s diminutive stature and still-developing changeup may mean he’s already ultimately ticketed for the bullpen at some point, but a 5.77 ERA/4.82 DRA/4.71 FIP isn’t what you want to see out of a guy who is supposedly considered to be one of the org’s better pitching prospects.

2B Javier Betancourt, AA Biloxi (picked by Nicholas Zettel): What do you do with a prospect like Javier Betancourt in a professional era that fetishizes home runs, strike outs, and walks? Betancourt is exactly the opposite. The advanced ball second baseman is batting approximately 77.8 percent of balls into play for the season, which basically means that Betancourt’s strike outs, walks, and home runs total the basic strikeout rate of the typical 2017 Southern League batter. Granted, there was never a ton to dream on for Betancourt from the day the Brewers traded for him, as he’s a true glove first second baseman without a high ceiling on the bat (ex., the opposite of Isan Diaz, perhaps). Yet, I think there’s something worth looking into for nearly any young batting profile (at age-22, Betancourt is indeed among the small class of younger AA players) that can maintain a median performance for that age group at an advanced level of professional baseball. I also think it’s worth looking at Betancourt precisely because he is such a left turn from the typical Brewers prospect at the moment (all tools, lots of swing and miss, boatloads of speed and power to make up for that). A bit of a wrinkle in Betancourt’s defensive position accompanies a recent slump, but it could be worth stating that if Betancourt continues to play at 2B and 3B, a modified utility profile could escalate the odds that he gets a chance to test this all-contact profile at the MLB level.

Betancourt perhaps is the answer to a question I ask myself from time to time, is there room for “bat control” guys in contemporary MLB? Which is simply to remind everyone that iterations of baseball are subject to professional preferences (and perhaps biases). One could conceivably design an MLB based around guys like Betancourt, which raises another interesting question, namely what would we think about guys like Lewis Brinson or Demi Orimoloye or Keon Broxton if the league was all about the Betancourts? Not that the league should be all about the Betancourts, but rather what value could be found in a seemingly stalled prospect profile that nevertheless is producing at an advanced class.

Minor League Context Tables:

I cheated and included Corbin Burnes in Class-AA Biloxi because if you can’t cheat a little bit, what’s the fun?

• Eric Thames, nearly a handful of years removed from the MLB, previously a Korean Baseball Organization superstar, translated his overseas success into strong MLB value for the club’s $16 million gamble (1.9 WARP).

• Travis Shaw, a sometimes-platooned third baseman caught in a packed Red Sox infield, flashing his potential as a full-time player (1.4 WARP).

• Jimmy Nelson, a previously middling innings eater in the rotation, now two new pitches and mechanical changes deep into his career, showcasing a solid new look on the mound (1.1 WARP).

• Orlando Arcia, the club’s former top prospect from the 2015 Biloxi breakout, now materializing that fantastic glove on the MLB diamond as the bat develops (1.1 WARP).

• Manny Pina, a former Player To Be Named Later, emerging at the catcher position due to the prolonged absence of Andrew Susac and a gamble on his late 2016 “breakout” (1.1 WARP).

• Corey Knebel, a formerly hyped “high leverage relief” prospect acquired way back in the Yovani Gallardo trade, now receiving a chance to showcase that electric stuff under the microscope of the closer’s role (1.0 WARP).

I do not have one doubt in my mind that if BPMilwaukee, or anyone, really, ran a series of preseason articles claiming that this six-pack of players would lead the Brewers to the top of the division into June, that would have been dismissed as much worse than wishful thinking. Yet, here we are, a gang of unsung players and a couple of hyped prospects are leading the Brewers and creating fantastic value. These six players comprise half the club’s wins above replacement value.

Related Reading:
Cashing Out OFP
Bandy-Maldonado
Aging Braun

Yet, if one compares the current production and contractual status of the Brewers’ major contributors to the preseason surplus expectations, one can find that the expected leaders heading into the season have also been quite strong for the Brewers. Essentially, the vast majority of the expected leaders entering the season have continued to provide value for the roster while another set of depth players are surpassing their expected surplus and that surprising set of leaders paces the WARP rankings.

The following table showcases the Brewers’ current production, compared to their preseason depreciated surplus value. Depreciated surplus value calculates a player’s three-year production basis at 70 percent value, and then prorates that depreciated figure according to the player’s contractual situation. The goal is to project a player’s future production on a declining scale, rather than an optimistic scale. In order to project current value, I also created an expanded depreciated surplus metric, which calculates a player’s 2014-2017 production, basically expanding the three-year model to a 3.33 model. To compare depreciated and bullish models, I also simply projected a player’s value if they maintained peak 2017 performance for the remainder of their contractual reserve. Money is not figured into arbitration or league minimum (reserve) contracts, since those players ostensibly cost the club nothing to release (ex., arbitration eligible players can be non-tendered between seasons at no cost, and the cost of releasing a league minimum player is negligible). For players age-26 or younger, I added an Overall Future Potential (OFP) valuation (Thames has a preseason OFP valuation to express the inability of assessing his expected talent level).

Compare that ranking with the 2017 surplus value leaders entering the season; this is probably the group of players that fans and analysts reasonably would have expected to lead the club. Veteran Ryan Braun and newcomer Junior Guerra have not been bad, but both missed time with injury (0.8 WARP); Jonathan Villar and Zach Davies have struggled to varying degrees (although Davies’s Sunday start against the Dodgers was an exclamation point on the idea that the righty was heading the proper direction) (-0.6 WARP); Travis Shaw is materializing his surplus value and serving as one of the production leaders (1.4 WARP); and Carlos Torres, Hernan Perez, and Keon Broxton are generally serving as valuable depth (1.7 WARP).

Entering the season, this group of players represented $235.8 million in surplus value, which vaguely cashes out into 33-to-34 MLB wins (those wins can be long-term or short-term, obviously depending on when GM David Stearns decides to cash them out); adding the updated “extended depreciated surplus” metric results in $253.2 million in surplus value, or 36-to-37 wins. What is thrilling about this development is that this group of players averages 3.7 years of contractual reserve, meaning that the club has another chance to return many of these players to try and advance this roster once in another year. The actual depreciation of these roster assets has suspended for a year, and the value of these players to the organization is higher because they have improved as a group.

Surplus value is obviously quite an abstract and contentious measurement. First, one can define both scarcity (of a skillset, or service time, etc.) and production in many different ways. Even if one were settled on the idea that “value = production + scarcity,” questions about whether to depreciate a player’s expected production going forward, or to use a player’s maximal outlook, and every question inbetween, would render that equation of suspect meaning.

Even with this caveat in mind, I want to suggest that one of the reason the Brewers are successful in 2017 is that Stearns has capitalized on players that maximized their surplus value in short order. Basically, this group of players have largely staved off any immediate delivery of depreciation, which is thrilling for the roster core and the trade deadline. It would have been ridiculous to suggest that perhaps Jett Bandy could produce enough value to be flipped for a 50 Overall Future Potential (OFP) prospect by the deadline, and perhaps even more bullish to suggest that he would materialize as a long-term quality depth catching option. The same might go for Jacob Barnes or Domingo Santana or even Eric Thames (who would probably be very difficult to trade, in terms of finding a prospect partner that matches his divisive historical profile and approach to the game). This is one way to cash out the improved surplus scenario for the Brewers; but one can also simply say that Stearns has successfully assembled a gang of players that produced three-to-four additional wins in organizational value thus far.

In Out of the Pits: Traders and Technology from Chicago to London (University of Chicago, 2006), Caitlin Zailoom presents an ethnography of commodity markets that demonstrates the embodiment of these markets, as well as the gendered, strategic, and technological standpoints that define commodity markets in space. While many understand the market truth of “buy low, sell high,” most do not dig any deeper than that truism into the strategic forms that materialize that mantra for shareholders. Zailoom demonstrates two specific strategies that allow commodity traders to maximize value: scalping and spreading. A “scalp” is a trade that seeks to immediately capitalize on an asset’s value, while a “spread” strategy focuses on taking offsetting short and long term positions to deliver profitable returns. Both of these strategies are applicable to Stearns and the Brewers front office for the trade season, which many fans are falsely equivocating into “win now” or “continue the rebuild” categories; rather, Stearns can move in several contrarian directions in order to maximize the Brewers’ current and future value.

Scalpers are a fascinating type. Zailoom writes, “local traders hope to profit from correctly predicting the movements of the market up or down and risk losing their own money in the process. They are speculators in the most pure sense — individuals making money purely on the changing prices of financial commodities. Although locals have a variety of trading strategies, most of them are known as ‘scalpers.’ Scalpers trade in and out of the market within seconds or minutes, profiting from small price fluctuations. Making hundreds of trades during the course of the day, the scalper never goes home owning contracts” (p. 62). Obviously, the metaphor of going home without owning contracts cannot apply to a baseball team, but the spirit of quickly capitalizing on moving prices might be applied to many of the players reserved on the Brewers roster. A “spread” strategy most certainly can be applied to baseball trading cycles: “A spreader takes opposing positions in each of two instruments, using the more stable contract to limit the loss potential of a position in the more volatile product” (Zailoom, p. 86). This type of strategy might be ascribed to the notion of “trading from depth,” which ostensibly means that the club is mitigating production volatility by “selling” a player from a position of strength (which therefore equals less organizational risk) in order to “buy” production for another area of the team (ostensibly shifting short-term risk to this acquisition).

A brief visualization, where ‘X’ are the Brewers, and the Brewers are trading with two partners in separate transactions (Team Y, Team Z) involving Overall Future Potential (prospects) and WARP (MLB players) that may be cashed out over an unknown period of time:

Stearns can essentially (1) hedge three-to-four surplus wins created with the MLB roster (basically keeping this as “cash in hand” or “organizational collateral”), (2) trade a “less valuable” MLB player while the iron is hot (a “scalp”), and (3) trade valuable prospects for a more valuable MLB player. This sequence might be the equivalent of flipping a player like Domingo Santana to an American League club (maximizing his offensive value and mitigating his defense), while also trading multiple prospects for a controllable starting pitcher. This is an extremely risky series of deals, but exogenous to the model are those three-to-four surplus wins that essentially mean Stearns really is playing with house money (a familiar theme here at BPMilwaukee).

Consider the Brewers’ current catching depth to demonstrate a scalp and spread. Given the injury status of Andrew Susac, and the relatively slow development of advanced prospect Jacob Nottingham, the position is not necessarily a true position of depth for the organization (especially given the physical toll of the position). Yet, there are other stateside prospect assets around the organization (from Dustin Houle to Mario Feliciano to Jose Sibrian) that could conceivably build a pool of prospects large enough to offset risk of short-term moves. Stearns could “scalp” the monstrous surplus gains of Jett Bandy, which would be about as short a turnaround as one could provide in baseball (ex., a trade in two consecutive “windows,” consecutive offseason to midseason windows). Pina, Susac, Nottingham, Houle, and waivers would provide the most immediate risk mitigation here, with low-ball prospects potentially providing the greatest long-term payout to this strategy for Milwaukee. A “spread” move could see the Brewers buy- and sell- in different directions, depending on available moves to maximize club surplus; it should not necessarily be surprising to see Stearns deal some prospects and also deal some MLB depth. Faced with a roster that has already added up to four wins in depreciated surplus value, and a farm system overflowing with prospects, Stearns can “cash” those four wins in a variety of ways.

Adding layers of deals, the Brewers can take “spread” positions across MLB and minor league levels. Perhaps this means using one deal to trade a flyball prospect (like Trey Supak)…

…and another deal to return a groundball prospect, while using additional deals to return MLB rotational and bullpen depth:

The point is not necessarily to dig into specific players here (really, nearly everyone except for a handful of players should have a transaction value for the organization). Rather, the point is to demonstrate that using embodied market strategies can help transcend the “win now” / “continue the rebuild” trade conundrum that is currently consuming Brewers fans and analysts. The Brewers need not do anything other than return maximal future surplus and present surplus with their MLB players and prospects. Thus may we enter “neverbuilding,” or “counterbuilding supreme”: with significant organizational collateral in hand (three-to-four additional surplus wins) Milwaukee has an opportunity to continue competing in 2017 while transcending the “win now” and “win never.”

Minor league stats are effectively meaningless, and especially meaningless without significant context for several reasons:

• First, the league environments themselves are not as readily or openly tracked as MLB, meaning that fans are not likely to have as much as an easy grasp on which parks play like Coors or which parks play like PetCo.

• A related factor impacting environment is that these professional baseball players are honing their skills, and often at different developmental stages. It’s easy to think this is more extreme in Class-A or Advanced A environments, where 19-to-20 year old Dominican Academy graduates might be playing with polished 22-to-23 year old college bats, and a set of recent draftees who might be anywhere from 19-to-21 years old, but this is easily just as extreme at Class-AA and AAA. In the advanced minors reside phenoms like Lewis Brinson, who has played each minor league level with little repetition, organizational depth like Victor Roache or Clint Coulter, 40-man Roster depth like Brent Suter and Michael Reed, and replacement players looking to either make their way back to the MLB or earn a living in the upper reaches of the minors.

• These different developmental stages obscure competitive environments prior to considering the fact that many of these minor league players may be working on specific assignments from the Front Office, meaning that the objective in the minor leagues is not as clear as in the MLB (ex., these players are not specifically in the minors to win, they are in the minors to develop).

• A player’s tools package, mechanics, and approach are most important, and it is unclear that minor league surface statistics easily translate those elements. A player who struggles through a minor league season while making a mechanical or approach adjustment may end up being a more desirable future asset than a player who shreds statistically but does not have the supporting tools, mechanics, and approach.

With this in mind, how do we read context into the minors? Baseball Prospectus offers several helpful statistics to this effect. One can use Opposing OPS to assess whether a phenom prospect is indeed phenomenal, or whether they are feasting on easy competition. Rickie Weeks was arguably a victim of this misunderstanding during his 2005 campaign, during which the 22-year old shredded the Pacific Coast League to the tune of .320 / .431 / .655. This looks all well and good until one determines that the .809 Opponent OPS Weeks faced was among the very weakest for Pacific Coast League regulars, and significantly easier than the .790 Opponent OPS faced by the median PCL player with 200 plate appearances. Brewers fans appear ready to commit a similar error of judgment with Lewis Brinson, who like Weeks is shredding the PCL (Brinson in his age-23 season) while facing some of the easiest competition in the league (.803 Opposing OPS versus .743 median for early season PCL regulars). Unlike 2005 Weeks, 2017 Brinson is also working in the easiest batting environment, which we can compare thanks to BPF, an index of park environment that Baseball Prospectus keeps for minor leagues.

Let me be clear: these statistics are not meant to diminish a player’s accomplishment. Lewis Brinson is hitting quite well, even with park factors and competition in mind; it’s just that these contextual statistics should help keep fans from expecting Brinson to immediately tear up the MLB when he reaches The Show.

With this background, here are the current batting environments faced by Brewers affiliates:

And now the pitching environments:

These tables should hopefully help to place individual performances in context. By using these tables, one can assess whether:

• A player is young or old, or of median age, for their respective league.
• A player is working in an environment that favors pitchers or batters.
• A player is facing easy competition, tough competition, or median competition.

Teammates to Watch:

• Brandon Woodruff versus Josh Hader. Thus far it’s easy to cite Brandon Woodruff’s 17/6/1 K/BB/HR line and 1.61 ERA as indicators of smashing success thus far, but the righty has faced opponents with a .702 OPS thus far. Granted, a .657 OPS-allowed still looks solid, and Woodruff is young in terms of age and developmental status in Class-AAA, so it’s not necessarily reason to be alarmed. Hader, on the other hand, appears to be struggling with command (15 K / 14 BB / 4 HR), but is facing opponents with a .169 Isolated Slugging Percentage. It will be worth looking for the scouting reports to emerge this spring, in order to assess any delivery or stuff issues, but Hader is receiving no benefits with his opponents faced.

• Biloxi Bats versus Carolina Arms. Oh, the prospects! So these guys are not necessarily teammates, but each of these units is facing difficult competition. Given that the Carolina pitching staff features several prospects excelling despite the difficulties (Corbin Burnes, Cody Ponce, and Freddy Peralta for example), midseason call-ups from the Carolina pitching staff could create an All-Team-Tough in Biloxi.

• Jake Gatewood versus Lucas Erceg. Lucas Erceg stormed the prospect scene after the 2016 draft, but few fans or analysts mentioned that the infielder faced relatively easy competition as a relatively polished college player in Class-A ball. Graduating to Carolina, the prospect is now facing a tough .644 Opposing OPS and is still knocking the ball around the ballpark (approximately 10 percent Extra Base Hits thus far). Jake Gatewood is coming into his own in Carolina, but along with some mechanical adjustments the youngster is also facing a .733 Opposing OPS. Granted, this is a case where notable mechanical adjustments are most important, as is the approach adjustment (21 K to 10 BB in 67 PA thus far). It is also worth noting that even though it seems like we’ve been following Gatewood forever, the corner prospect is still young for Advanced A ball.

• Wisconsin Pitching vs. Wisconsin Bats. Forget Colorado Springs, Appleton is also playing tough for pitchers in 2017, which is giving young arms like Trey Supak and Thomas Jankins a trial by fire. Both pitchers have acquitted themselves well thus far, despite the tough environment, which means that those K / BB / HR lines for both pitchers might be even more impressive than they seem at first glance. Meanwhile, it’s worth applying a large grain of salt to several of those blazing hot Wisconsin bats, as these prospects have faced a relatively easy path thus far. Yet, in the case of players like Demi Orimoloye and Mario Feliciano, it is worth noting that both are significantly younger than the Midwest League median age, so it is nice to see these professionals forge their paths at such young ages.

Midseason 2016 #1
Midseason 2016 #2
Midseason 2016 #3

Three Up

CF Lewis Brinson, Class-AAA Colorado Springs
With Keon Broxton struggling at the big league level, the clamoring has already begun for Milwaukee’s #1 prospect to make his debut at Miller Park. Brinson’s blistering start for the Sky Sox has only made the cries louder. He missed a few games after jamming a finger sliding into second base, but the center fielder is batting .355/.412/.649 with two home runs and three doubles in 34 plate appearances for a ridiculous .371 TAv. Unless Broxton starts to figure things out at the plate in short order, expect to see Brinson up sometime around the end of May or beginning of June. From BP’s Steve Givarz:

“We’ve talked a lot about Brinson, and rightfully so. He has tools and impact potential in center field, plus he has also cut down on his strikeouts. All of this could force Milwaukee’s hand sooner rather than later.”

C Mario Feliciano, Class-A Wisconsin
The Brewers picked Feliciano as a 17-year old prep player in the Competitive Balance Round B of last summer’s draft. The young backstop had an unimpressive debut statistically in the Arizona League, but Milwaukee’s front office saw enough to give him an aggressive assignment all the way to full-season ball to start the 2017 season. Feliciano has responded by pounding the ball to the tune of a .378/.425/.622 slash with a homer, a triple, and four doubles in 40 plate appearances for a .385 TAv. There’s work to be done defensively, as there usually is with high school catchers, but the bat might be able to play at other positions if a move out from behind the plate is needed. From BP’s Steve Givarz:

“Taken in the Competitive Balance “B” Round in 2016, Feliciano has been one of the hottest hitters in the Midwest League thus far. He offers power, bat speed, and feel to hit at the plate with an advanced approach. He’s athletic behind the plate—enough so that he could handle being moved off catcher—but is a project defensively. His receiving is raw and his transfers can be sloppy, but the bat looks pretty special.”

IF Jake Gatewood, Class-Advanced A Carolina
The Brewers signed Gatewood to an overslot deal after picking him 41st overall in 2014, hoping that his hitting skills would develop to match his plus raw power. It’s taken a few years, but it appears the 21 year old might finally be coming around. After hitting .240/.268/.391 with 14 home runs and 18 walks in 126 games at Wisconsin last year, Gatewood revamped his stance and approach at the plate. From last season:

And now in 2017:

Jake Gatewood base hit with new & improved stance. #Mudcats pic.twitter.com/rLOo0ABEOQ

— Brewers Prospects (@BrewerProspect) April 14, 2017

Gatewood is now more crouched at the plate and has lowered his hand positioning pretty significantly, and the early results are extremely encouraging. Through 50 plate appearances, Gatewood is slashing .310/.420/.476 with a home run, four doubles, and perhaps most importantly, eight base on balls. Lucas Erceg’s presence in Zebulon has pushed Gatewood mostly to first base, but he retains a solid corner utility profile overall defensively. If he can sustain the improvements in his approach, Gatewood may finally be on his way to fulfilling the tremendous potential scouts placed on him when he was drafted.

Three Down

SS Gilbert Lara, Class-A Wisconsin
Three years after signing for a $3.2 mil bonus, Gilbert Lara still has yet to look like much more than a cautionary tale for handing out big checks to 16 year olds. Lara managed only a .220 TAv last season in Helena, but the Brewers still advanced him to full season ball in Wisconsin to start 2017. Thus far in 33 plate appearances, he’s batting an anemic .125/.152/.250 with a single long ball. He’s struck out 11 times versus drawing just one walk. Lara’s calling card when he was signed was his incredible power potential, but scouts have panned both his approach and swing mechanics, which haven’t allowed Lara to tap into the power with any sort of regularity. Once considered one of Milwaukee’s top prospects, Lara looks to be little more than a wild card at this point. At just 19 years old, however, time is still very much on Lara’s side.

Gilbert Lara is hitting .125/.152/.250 (and not starting every game), if you're wondering if his swing or plate discipline have improved.

— J.P. Breen (@JP_Breen) April 20, 2017

OF Trent Clark, Class-Advanced A Carolina
Clark was Milwaukee’s first round pick back in 2015 and has dealt with some unfortunate injuries that have robbed him of critical development time during his first two years as a professional. Healthy coming into this season, he was assigned to Carolina to be featured as a part of the Mudcats’ loaded roster. Clark’s hit tool was considered to be very advanced when he was drafted, but thus far the lefty-swinger is batting just .200/.348/.343 with a 32 percent strikeout rate in 47 plate appearances in 2017. That, after posting a .231 average and 26 percent punchout rate in 59 games at low-A Wisconsin last year. Clark has middling power and his lackluster arm will likely push him to left field if he can’t stick in center, so the fact that his purported carrying tool has yet to really show through as a professional is no doubt discouraging. With so many other talented outfielders in the system, Clark may soon get lost in the shuffle. From Baseball America’s Kyle Glaser:

“Clark let multiple balls drop playing both right field and center field, earning derision from scouts in attendance who criticized his motor and effort.”

OF Clint Coulter, Class-AA Biloxi
One of Milwaukee’s two first-rounders in 2012 (along with Victor Roache), it looked like the club might have had something special in Coulter after he captured the org’s Minor League Player of the Year award in 2014. Things haven’t worked out that way in the few years since then, however. Coulter was forced to move off of catcher to right field and struggled offensively in the harsh environs of the Florida State League for 2015 and most of 2016, though a .306 TAv in 102 late-season plate appearances for Biloxi last year offered a glimmer of hope. That success hasn’t carried over into 2017, however, as Coulter is off to a .169/.219/.200 start with seven strikeouts and one walk through his first 32 plate appearances. Coulter lacks a good feel for hitting and can struggle to recognize breaking stuff, which will allow more advanced pitchers to continue to exploit him. Combine that with reportedly below-average defense in the outfield and you have the makings of a first-round bust.

Additional Contributors:
Noah Nofz
Sean Roberts

With the season opening for Milwaukee’s full season affiliates (Class-A Wisconsin Timber Rattlers, Class-Advacned A Carolina Mudcats, Class-AA Biloxi Shuckers, and Class-AAA Colorado Springs Sky Sox), here is how the system’s Baseball Prospectus Top 10 and “just interesting” guys will be distributed throughout the organization:

Each affiliate except the Colorado Springs club is beginning the season on the road:

Given the fact that the Brewers are rebuilding the MLB roster without necessarily fielding a club expected to be competitive, fans are understandably excited about the assemblage of talent in places like Colorado Springs and Carolina. But there is so much depth in the system that major stories could also emerge from Biloxi and Wisconsin. So, here is a look at a trio of storylines that BPMilwaukee contributors are interested in (myself, Noah Nofz, and Sean Roberts).

Low-A Battery (Noah Nofz)
Like a lot of us, I’ll be watching this year’s Brewers minor league affiliates like a hawk. Intrigue abounds at every level. Setting aside the obvious prospect glut at Class-AAA Colorado and Class-Advanced A Carolina, one particular tandem stands out: Right-handed pitcher Luke Barker and budding catcher Mario Feliciano of the low-A Wisconsin Timber Rattlers.

Barker and Feliciano form a fascinating battery. They are a symphony in contrast. Barker, 6’3”, is a 25-year-old hurler who went undrafted out of Chico State despite glittering numbers and a prototypical pitcher’s build. He spent last year with the Traverse City Beach Bums of the independent Frontier League, where he posted a 1.44 ERA and struck out 83 batters over 62.3 innings while only walking ten.

Feliciano, 18, was an early-round draft pick out of high school just last year. His aggressive assignment to full-season ball speaks volumes about the organization’s enthusiasm – and may have contributed to their decision to push another young backstop, Cooper Hummel, from the Pioneer League all the way to High-A Carolina.

They’re blazing entirely different trails, but tracking Barker and Feliciano as they push towards Milwaukee should provide plenty of thrills for Appleton fans.

The Exciting Gilbert Lara (Sean Roberts)
Over 246 plate appearances at rookie league Helena last year, Gilbert Lara slashed just .250/.293/.320 with two home runs, resulting in a TAv of .220. There’s nothing that really stands out in his statistical profile, except maybe the most important number for a prospect- his age. He’ll only be 19 this season, after the Brewers signed him as a 16-year old in 2014. While consistency has eluded him, he flashes tools once in a while that provide insight into Brewer scouts’ $3 million investment in him.

Scouts haven’t been crazy about his defensive ceiling either, suggesting he may be moved off of shortstop sooner rather than later, though he did post 5 FRAA this past season. So while there isn’t a lot to get excited about yet, a big 19-year old shortstop that has real power is something that Brewer fans shouldn’t dismiss as the rest of the farm system has drastically improved around Lara. While it would be foolish to predict a breakout anytime soon, he’s still one of the most intriguing prospects in the system that I’ll have my eye on and am fascinated to see if he can develop and fulfill more of that potential in 2017.

Sneaky Shuckers (Nicholas Zettel)
In terms of expected impact talent, Brewers fans are most thrilled about the collection of well-publicized prospects opening the season in Carolina and Colorado Springs. Yet, the Biloxi Shuckers, the locale of the system’s (arguable) first large step forward in 2015, host a set of intriguing MLB depth for the 2017 season. Fans probably do not read prospect coverage to be reminded that all the big names will not work out in Milwaukee, but that also should not preclude coverage of solid depth options that could expand the Brewers’ replacement options or even provide some out-of-nowhere stars.

In 2017, both members of the Khris Davis trade return open the season in Biloxi. This is a great chance for both Jacob Nottingham and Bubba Derby to advance their respective careers, and it is a testing ground of one of the more questionable rebuilding trades thus far (after 2016). Nottingham is the better-known prospect among this duo, as the catcher was highly renowned within the Oaklad Athletics system before hitting a slight roadbump as a supremely young catcher entering Class-AA for 2016. The catcher with raw power and a chance to stick behind the plate gets his second go at Biloxi, where he will hopefully feel less pressure to impress this season.

Meanwhile, the peripheral statistics show that Bubba Derby struggled during an arguably aggressive assignment to Class-Advanced A Brevard County last season, but the aggressive assignments continue as Derby will have to improve upon a 4.68 DRA, 45 percent groundball rate, and home run rate in the upper minors. Baseball Prospectus scout Steve Givarz graded Derby’s fastball and change up as potential 55 Overall Future Potential pitches in August, giving Brewers fans something to dream on for the depth righty to emerge as a potential relief pitcher in Milwaukee.

If you are inclined to be excited by the Carolina Mudcats infield of Jake Gatewood, Isan Diaz, Lucas Erceg, Luis Aviles, Weston Wilson and Wendell Rijo, I counter with the Biloxi set of Art Charles and Dustin DeMuth, Javier Betancourt and Blake Allemand, and Mauricio Dubon, George Iskenderian, and Angel Ortega. There’s no one among this set that has Diaz’s ceiling or Erceg’s fast-rising hype, but there are some solid tools that could find their way to Milwaukee to bolster a flexible MLB infield that could use more depth throughout the season. Dubon has a modest 45-50 profile that also does not seem to be particularly risky, and will have to prove in Biloxi’s environment whether his power gains that surfaced in 2016 are sustainable. Javier Betancourt has a glove-first approach at second base, which is a position that now has less depth between Milwaukee and Biloxi. Trent Clark and Nathan Kirby might get the most press from the 2015 draft, but this Shuckers infield also includes potential members of that draft that could graduate into depth roles (Iskenderian and Allemand might fight RHP Jon Perrin to be the first 2015 Brewers draftee to reach the MLB).

Anyway, don’t buy into the hype: or rather, don’t buy fully into the hype without considering the depth. As demonstrated above in Wisconsin, there is some talent in the Class-A club that could help define the identity of the system in coming years. In Biloxi, the prospect hype is considerably less shiny, but the roles are nevertheless important for establishing the staying power of Milwaukee’s rebuild. Don’t sleep on the Shuckers. It cannot be emphasized enough that the future success of the Brewers will depend on the depth of the system as much as star potential at the top.