On Sunday evening, the Brewers’ Chase Anderson had himself a nice vengeance game against the Arizona Diamondbacks, who traded him away prior to the 2016 season. Anderson pitched six innings, surrendering one run and striking out eight. It was all he could do to endure a classic pitchers duel and keep the Brewers in striking distance, and it was needed desperately. Milwaukee’s offense largely got their lunch money taken by emergent Arizona ace Robbie Ray, who struck out twelve in six and two-thirds shutout innings.

Anderson was relieved by Carlos Torres, who was relieved by Neftali Feliz, who was relieved by Wily Peralta, who was relieved by Rob Scahill. And what the Brewers got out of them was no relief, whatsoever. If Anderson’s performance was a beautiful work of art, well, the four misfits of Milwaukee’s bullpen did the equivalent act of covering that painting up with imaginatively vindictive and vile vandalism. Five runs apiece in the bottom of the seventh an eighth buried the Brewers for good. Keon Broxton’s leadoff ninth-inning shot could’ve been a huge, game-changing, maybe even season-swinging event had the Brewers’ bullpen been able to keep the Diamondbacks at bay, but Arizona’s slugging offense simply highlighted a point that everybody was already painfully aware of–Milwaukee’s bullpen is a tire fire right now.

It could be argued that the glowing Goodyear atop the blaze, burning brightest and hottest, is free-agent import Neftali Feliz. Feliz was impressive last season pitching in a setup role for the Pirates, and the Brewers paid him $5.35 million to come in and be the 2017 closer. That experiment lasted all of six weeks before the unquestionably-more-effective Corey Knebel was given the car keys.

But even after being removed from the spotlight of the ninth inning, Feliz has continued to hurt the Brewers. He served up the game-winning 12th-inning home run on June 2nd against the Dodgers, three runs to the Giants three days later, and a two-run ding-dong to David Peralta on Sunday that added the fourth and fifth runs of the seventh inning. Outings like that have been more and more common for Feliz this season. The would-be closer has a 5.19 ERA, a HR/9 north of two, a walk rate of 4.5 per nine innings, a DRA of 5.30, and a FIP of 6.09. While Feliz has been somewhat notorious for volatility throughout his career, numbers like that simply aren’t playable in a big-league bullpen, and especially not for a team that wants to remain in the thick of a high-pressure divisional race as we approach the turn.

Feliz’s walk rate has proven problematic in the past, but it seemed that had all passed. For the past three seasons he’s checked in between 3.13 and 3.52 BB/9–numbers a bit higher than the league average, but still serviceable. In 2017, that number has jumped to 4.5 walks per nine innings. And while Feliz has gotten unlucky with the gopher ball–a 17.6% HR/FB rate that almost doubles his career mark of 9.4%–his untenable walk rate has frequently put ducks on the pond for those home runs, ensuring maximum damage.

(Look no further than Sunday’s game for a textbook example of this. Gregor Blanco was the first batter Feliz faced after relieving Torres. He walked, and scored when David Peralta lined one off the left-field foul pole. Just like that, two runs. When it’s that easy, no wonder the guy is giving up 5+ runs per game.)

And Feliz’s best asset, his calling card since he was a 21-year-old rookie closing out playoff games, has been his ability to pile up the strikeouts. Last season, dialing his fastball velocity up to 96, Feliz piled up 10.23 strikeouts per nine for Pittsburgh. It was that overpowering dominance that turned him into an asset at the back of their bullpen. The absence of that dominance this year made Corey Knebel and his superhuman strikeout rate look all the more appealing. By contrast, Feliz is fanning just 6.92 hitters per nine in a Milwaukee uniform.

His velocity, movement, and release point are all in line with last year’s numbers. In fact, the problem isn’t even anything to do with Feliz, actually. Last year, he was able to get hitters to swing and miss on high strikes and pitches above the strike zone with consistent success:

In 2017, that has not been the case at all:

Last year, hitters swung at pitches out of the zone against Feliz 33.4 percent of the time, and made contact on those swings at a 59.2 percent clip. This year, he’s only getting swings on 30.9 percent of balls outside the strike zone, and 68.2 percent of them are not being whiffed on. Therefore, the strikeouts are not there. And therefore, Feliz is significantly less effective.

When the Brewers signed Feliz, it was easy to follow David Stearns’ train of thought. This guy’s peripheral numbers indicate he could be one of the better closers in baseball: sign him to a one-year deal, hope he shines for this mediocre team, and then in July flip him to a team that needs shutdown arms at the back of the bullpen. That plan’s unlikely to happen for two fairly obvious reasons. First of all, Feliz has pitched himself out of any trade value he might have had. Second of all, the Brewers priorities could be in the midst of shifting away from building for the future and to building something competitive now.

The front office needs to do some soul-searching, and figure out if it is worth it to wait on Neftali Feliz to start making batters swing and miss again. It’s not something he can fix overnight, and the team needs the problem rectified as soon as possible. Given the short-term commitment, his lack of on- or off-field value right now, and the team’s position in the standings, the most sensible thing might just be for the Brewers to grant Feliz his release and move on to more reliable options.

Let’s start with the disappointment that was Friday night’s game, when the Brewers managed to blow two different four run leads. After the Braves tied the game again in the eighth inning, Neftali Feliz came into the pitch the ninth. He promptly gave up a double and a home run, and the Braves won 10-8. There’s no sugar coating those two at bats; both hits were off belt high pitches over the plate.

While Feliz’s blown save was certainly disappointing, Jacob Barnes’s implosion was surprising. Barnes had yet to allow a run all season, then he allowed three. His 1/3 of an inning appearance was his shortest of the season, yet he threw twenty five pitches, his most in a game in 2017. But when looking at the pitches ending each at bat, it seems he was more unlucky than shelled.

The yellow dot in the middle, which looks like the juiciest pitch, was only turned into a single. The worst pitch of the five, that orange dot, sustained the most damage. It was a high and outside fastball, which Ender Inciarte reached for and lofted into left center field.

It’s disappointing when the stuff doesn’t line up with the results, but sometimes teams have nights where the bounces don’t fall. Notwithstanding some high profile pratfalls, including five blown saves so far, the Brewers bullpen has been middle of the pack: their 3.97 DRA places them 15^th in MLB and 6^th in the National League. Even after Friday, Barnes still leads the team with a 0.99 DRA, and is eighth in MLB among all pitchers with at least ten innings pitched. Of course, that stellar work is offset by Carlos Torres, who is tied for the team lead in appearances and has the worst reliever DRA at 4.84. Torres is also the only reliever seeing regular time with a DRA below the team’s average.

Milwaukee hit five home runs over the weekend, and leads MLB with forty three, seven more dingers than the Yankees, Nationals and Rockies, who are all tied for second place. On Sunday, Domingo Santana contributed two of those homers. Santana came into Sunday’s game on a disappointing start to the season as he’s below his 10^th  Percentile PECOTA forecast with a .237 TAv and negative WARP.

Part of his slow month can be attributed to his .196 BABip, which is unsustainably low. He’s currently has the 16^th worst BABIP out of all hitters with at least 50 plate appearances, and it would have been the 3^rd worst in 2016 amongst all players with at least 100 plate appearances, and most of the guys in that neighborhood at the end of the year are your slow catcher and first baseman types. It’ll get better, so long as he can stop those infield pop ups. Other reasons for optimism include his plate discipline stats. Though April was frustrating, Santana has cut his strikeout rate below 25 percent while increasing his walk rate to 13.6 percent. Ending the month with three home runs over the weekend (including his pinch hit homer on Friday) may prove to be a launching pad for his skills to turn into results.

Looking Ahead: The Brewers face a week where they’ll be away from home and playing divisional games all week. They roll into St. Louis for four games, then are off to Pittsburgh for a weekend series. The Cardinals and Brewers are currently tied for 2^nd place in the division, with the Pirates on their heels one game back, so the Brewers can stay in the mix with a good week.

1.491
Holy Eric Thames. The ex-KBO slugger has not lost a single step in his transition back to the big leagues. The number above is his OPS through 53 plate appearances. He leads the league in WARP and fWAR for position players. He leads the league in home runs. He has been everything the Brewers have hoped him to be and more. Oh, and he’s only making four million dollars this year.

Now, there is no way Thames will keep up this pace. It is likely more realistic to expect him to halve his OPS than keep it over 1.000. But it’s encouraging nonetheless. If he were to suffer a season ending injury tomorrow he would have already deemed his four million dollar contract a bargain due to his 1.4 WARP. The Brewers will gladly take that.

26.9 Percent
The Brewers struck out more than any team in baseball history in 2016. Their 26.9 percent strikeout rate through 15 games would shatter the previous record of 25.5 percent, which was a tie between the 2013 Astros and last season’s Brewers. Yet, the Brewers are not even the league leader. That dubious title would go to the Tampa Bay Rays, who are sporting a 28.6 percent strikeout rate. The game is changing and strikeouts are becoming more accepted in exchange for more power, but it has to be a cause for some concern that the team is striking out so much. If and when the Brewers go through a dry spell in terms of scoring runs, look for the high strikeout rate to be the main culprit.

1.88
The number above was the combined ERA between Neftali Feliz, Jacob Barnes, Corey Knebel, Carlos Torres, Jared Hughes, and Jhan Marinez in 43 2/3 innings from the group (entering play Wednesday). This is an incredibly encouraging sign for a bullpen that was expected to be a weakness for the team according to PECOTA and many experts. If this group can keep up a similar pace, these relief arms make for easy trade deadline chips. Then again, if they continue as one of the most success full bullpens in baseball, it hard to believe the Brewers will be too far away from competing for a wild card spot.

9.74
Zach Davies’s DRA through three starts is 9.74. Once again, only three starts, but it isn’t what anyone would want from Davies, who was heralded as the next Kyle Hendricks all off-season. His FIP is 4.84, which is less than a run worse than his career average. One could jump to the conclusion that this bad stretch is entirely BABIP and strength of competition driven (Rockies and Cubs at home, and the up-start Reds on the road), but there are a few troubling trends in Davies’ line. First, he has walked five batters per nine innings. Davies’s groundball rate has fallen to 42 percent, continuing a career long trend of a transformation into a fly-ball pitcher, and his strikeout rate fallen back under 7 percent as it was in 2015. These three starts against stiff competition aren’t any reason to lose faith in Davies, fantasy players might look to buy stock in him at his low point. He is someone to keep an eye on in the Brewers rotation.

25
The Brewers hit 25 home runs as a team through their first 15 games, and they added two more on Wednesday thanks to Jett Bandy and Travis Shaw. Most of the thanks goes to Eric Thames and Ryan Braun, who have combined for 12 home runs, but ten different Brewers have already homered just 15 games into the season. Only seven teams have hit more than 40 home runs in the month of April, all of them coming since 2002. The Brewers are well on their way to approaching that 40 home run mark for the month. It’s pretty amazing the power this team is flashing even after trading Khris Davis and then getting rid of Chris Carter last offseason. It makes you wonder what kind of damage the Brewers could do with a DH spot.

Fantasy Previews:
BP Bronx
BP Toronto
BP Wrigleyville

Note: All of the draft rounds below are based on a standard 5×5, 12-team rotisserie league with one catcher.

WORTH THEIR DRAFT SPOT

 Ryan Braun

2016 PECOTA Projection – .277 AVG, 82 R, 27 HR, 85 RBI, 17 SB
Expected Draft Round: mid-3rd

At this point in his career, Braun doesn’t have the massive MVP ceiling that he did in his late 20s. This will be his age-33 season, and he just isn’t as exciting as some other players around him in the third round. Francisco Lindor, Robinson Cano, and Nelson Cruz are much more fun to have on your team, and each is being drafted after Braun according to Yahoo!’s current ADP. Braun, though, is a pretty sure bet to meet his projections.

Braun’s .278 TAv in 2014 was the lowest of his career, and his .298 TAv in 2015 was the third-lowest of his career, and that would generally be a red flag. However, in each of those seasons he was battling a nerve problem in his thumb, and that appears to now be behind him. He was right back to his consistent excellent self last year, with a .305 batting average and 30 home runs. Even in 2015, which was a purported down year, he hit .285 with 25 home runs. He is as safe a bet as any to contribute in all five categories.

Jonathan Villar

2016 PECOTA Projection – .249 AVG, 92 R, 15 HR, 55 RBI, 48 SB
Expected Draft Round: mid-4th

Villar’s value comes down to essentially two things, but they are both valuable: positional flexibility and stolen bases. Regardless of your league rules, he will begin the season eligible at shortstop and third base. If the games requirement at a position is ten, he will also have second base eligibility; even if it is twenty, though, he will gain second base eligibility within the first two weeks of the season because Travis Shaw has been brought in to play third base.

His steals were his calling card last year, and there is no reason to expect any change this season. Craig Counsell’s Brewers were the most aggressive team on the bases last year; they stole 181 bases as a team in 2016, and the next closest team had just 139. Counsell clearly made running a priority, and there have been no quotes or personnel moves that would suggest any kind of change. This is particularly noteworthy for Villar because of his success rate. Even though he stole 62 bases last season, he was caught 18 times, and his stolen base rate was just 77.5 percent. While that is still above breaking even, it is not the most efficient use of Villar’s time on the bases. But lacking any reason to expect that Villar will have a more yellow light this season, he should continue to run wild on the bases. Oh, and the double-digit home runs won’t hurt either.

Neftali Feliz

2016 PECOTA Projection – 36 S, 62 K, 3.97 ERA, 1.26 WHIP
Expected Draft Round: 17

The Brewers traded nearly all the internal alternatives to Feliz at the back end of the bullpen, so he will be given every opportunity to hold on to the closer job. He is certainly risky, as he has never fully recovered from his 2012 Tommy John surgery. He missed some time at the end of last season with a bicep injury, and he also has performance questions: last year was the first DRA under 4.00 he posted since 2011 (3.45).

With all that being said, though, there is also clearly some potential upside. He will be given the first several chances to get saves, and DRA does think he improved last year. However, his save total will be tied to how well the team does, and this isn’t exactly a contending team. But if the Brewers finish around 75 wins, Feliz should be a solid closer option. This late in a draft, there aren’t many other more viable options.

SLEEPERS

Zach Davies

2016 PECOTA Projection – 9 W, 126 K, 4.12 ERA, 1.32 WHIP
Expected Draft Round: 20+

Davies could present some ratio upside this late in a draft. He and Junior Guerra are the only two Brewers who have rotation spots locked up, and the young right-hander will have every opportunity to stick in the rotation. He relies on his 90 mph sinker, so he won’t ever rack up the strikeouts. However, his DRA last year was 3.91, and he should provide solid, consistent performance. If he takes a step or two forward, he could improve on PECOTA’s projections for his wins and his ratios.

Junior Guerra

2016 PECOTA Projection – 10 W, 155 K, 4.08 ERA, 1.28 WHIP
Expected Draft Round: 20+

Almost literally everything that I wrote above for Davies could be applied to Guerra as well except for the age. Guerra will be starting on Opening Day, and he, like Davies, will have a long leash in the rotation given the suboptimal alternatives. Guerra’s splitter was one of the best in baseball at inducing whiffs, so he does have some strikeout potential. Overall, he was about as good as Davies last year, but his unique backstory (he pitched in Italy for a couple years before making his big league debut in 2015 at the age of 30) means that PECOTA is skeptical and there is a bit more uncertainty.

It is worth noting that Guerra’s ERA drastically outstripped his DRA last year (2.81 ERA, 3.87 DRA), so if he is drafted based on that then he isn’t worth the risk. However, if he slips because of concerns about how legitimate his breakout was, then he could be a worthy gamble late in drafts.

Eric Thames

2016 PECOTA Projection – .238 AVG, 62 R, 17 HR, 67 RBI, 7 SB
Expected Draft Round: 20+

PECOTA projects Thames for a .244 TAv, which is below the MLB average of .260. ZiPS projects him for a 109 wRC+. Steamer projects him for a 124 wRC+. All of this is a fancy way of saying that no one really knows what to expect from Thames. He previously played in MLB in 2011 and 2012 for the Blue Jays and Mariners, and he posted a career TAv of .257. But he spent the last few years crushing home runs in Korea, and he won the KBO MVP in 2015. If he resembles the player he was in Korea, then he is a steal at this point in a draft. If his improvements don’t carry over in his return to North America, then he isn’t worth a roster spot. But as a low-risk flier, Thames is a worthy gamble.

BUSTS

Domingo Santana

2016 PECOTA Projection – .246 AVG, 59 R, 19 HR, 63 RBI, 4 SB
Expected Draft Round: 20+

It’s hard to really find busts on a team that doesn’t have very high expectations, and “bust” is relative given Santana’s current ADP. However, I do believe there are better flier options late in the draft. Santana has a couple points working against him. First, playing time isn’t guaranteed. Braun will play left field, and Keon Broxton will presumably get most of the time in center field when lefties pitch. Only right field is available to Santana, and he will still have to compete with some of the other utility options on the team. Kirk Nieuwenhuis got a significant amount of playing time last year, and Hernan Perez and Scooter Gennett have also made themselves options in the corner.

Second, Santana has some real swing-and-miss problems. Last year, he had a contact rate of 69 percent. It was the highest mark of his career, and it still placed him in the bottom 20% of hitters who faced at least 300 pitches (66th of 463). He made excellent contact when he did hit the ball (13th in MLB in average exit velocity), but that wasn’t enough to make him a hitter worth rostering. He will be given every chance to play and so might be able to provide some cheap power, but he isn’t a great candidate to break out.

DEEPER/KEEPER LEAGUE OPTIONS

Keon Broxton

2016 PECOTA Projection – .230 AVG, 49 R, 12 HR, 38 RBI, 22 SB
Expected Draft Round: 18

At this point, most readers are probably familiar with the exit velocity phenom that is Keon Broxton. On that same leaderboard referenced above for Santana, Broxton placed fourth. He made harder average contact than Miguel Cabrera, David Ortiz, and Gary Sanchez. It didn’t all come together in terms of overall results, as his .278 TAv demonstrates. He was good but not great, but this coming season presents a great opportunity to see if the exit velocity does actually manifest itself as power. And at least if that doesn’t work out, he should be able to steal a bunch of bases on this run-happy team.

Orlando Arcia

2016 PECOTA Projection – .248 AVG, 72 R, 15 HR, 57 RBI, 16 SB
Expected Draft Round: 20+

It’s hard to know exactly what to make of Arcia offensively, but he will get a lot of at bats this year. His defense is his calling card and should keep him in the lineup even if he struggles to hit, but there is some upside at the plate. He struggled in 2016 (.217 TAv in 216 PAs), but the scouting report prior to the year was glowing and he is worth a flier in case his bat does click. Before the 2016 season, BP’s prospect team gave him future grades of 60 speed and 55 hit, and he was deemed to be a high-floor type of player because of his contact skills. He obviously didn’t reach that potential in his cup of coffee last season, but he should be more settled this season and will have every opportunity to hit and steal bases.

Lewis Brinson

2016 PECOTA Projection – .247 AVG, 19 R, 6 HR, 19 RBI, 4 SB
Expected Draft Round: N/A

As a consensus top prospect, Brinson must be owned in most keeper leagues where he could make a difference. However, the Brewers outfield situation is far from settled, and Brinson does have an opportunity to make an impact in 2017. Keon Broxton is exciting but unproven, and Domingo Santana is no sure bet to lock down playing time in right field. If Brinson hits in Triple-A and Broxton or Santana struggle in the big leagues, the Brewers could call on their top prospect by July or August. He is worth keeping on your radar just for that chance.

Wily Peralta

2016 PECOTA Projection – 6 W, 85 K, 4.33 ERA, 1.43 WHIP
Expected Draft Round: N/A

You shouldn’t actually draft Peralta, but he is worth keeping an eye on throughout the season in case he gets moved to the bullpen. The Brewers have a lot of mediocre rotation options and Peralta throws the hardest, so he seems to be one of the most likely to move to the bullpen.

Putting Peralta on this list is purely speculative; if he gets moved to the bullpen, his mid-90s fastball could play up and allow him to increase his strikeout numbers. And if Feliz gets hurt or struggles, Peralta could be in play for some late-season innings at the back of the bullpen.

 A: Because more balls went over the fence!

Besides being a punchline to a joke that would absolutely rule the day  on playground duty, the above answer may give us some insight into the Brewers’ interest in free agent relief pitcher Neftali Feliz.

At first glance, Feliz’s line from last year might not inspire much confidence for a serviceable replacement to Tyler Thornburg or Will Smith. In 53.7 innings, Feliz posted a 3.76 DRA and 4.57 FIP, largely off the 10 home runs he allowed. That was the most home runs per nine innings he has given up in his career.

Nothing much in his peripherals glares out as an obvious problem, except for a 19.2 percent HR/FB rate, which was 16^th-highest in MLB last year among pitchers with at least 50 innings pitched. In fact, that rate of fly balls that left the yard is more than double his career rate of 8.8 percent.

Of course, it’s possible that his pitches were just more hittable, with pitches thrown that were more susceptible to the home run, but consider that he also posted groundball rates and strikeout rates that were his best since his breakout 2009 with Texas. Last year, he also saw the highest swing rate of his career, along with the lowest contact rate. So batters were swinging more at Feliz’s pitches and making contact less than ever.

You can’t really point quickly to his pitch mix to explain the inflated homer rate, either. Feliz’s velocity also has ticked up a mile and a half per hour above where he was sitting with his fastball in 2015. With the Pirates, he has almost abandoned his changeup, working primarily with his four-seam fastball and slider, which is a positive step forward as his changeup was getting just a 7 percent whiff rate last year.

It doesn’t seem like that’s allowing batters to just sit on his fastball, though. Movement on those pitches isn’t drastically out of line with his career, either:

Really about the only thing Feliz didn’t improve upon from his career numbers under Ray Searage and the Pirates was that HR/FB rate. As simple and perhaps redundant as it seems, his home run troubles really do seem to be a matter of more fly balls flying over the fence.

Still, it’s not as if those 10 home runs just ran into someone’s bat by accident. According to ESPN’s Home Run Tracker, 8 of those round-trippers were “plenty” of distance, and just 1 was considered “just enough.” His 104.5 MPH average exit velocity on home runs is slightly above the MLB average last year, and was 39th among 214 pitchers who gave up at least 10 homers.

Whether explainable by a mechanical change, slight changes to his pitch effectiveness, or just luck, the Brewers front office seems to be banking on regression to the mean in his home runs allowed per fly ball. That would pair well should groundball and strikeout tendencies to continue to trend in the right direction in front of their improved defense this year.