The Timber Rattlers began their 2018 season with a 4-3 loss to in-state rival Beloit in extra innings last night, but that shouldn’t take away anything from the performance of Opening Day starter Bowden Francis. The soon-to-be 22 year old right hander tossed 5.0 solid innings with six hits and only two earned runs allowed, striking out three while walking none. It was the full-season debut for the 2017 draftee, and he’ll be one of four members of his draft class that form Wisconsin’s starting rotation in the season’s early going, along with former international free agent Nelson Hernandez:

.@TimberRattlers starting rotation order to kick-off the season:

Bowden Francis
Nelson Hernandez
Alec Bettinger
Dylan File
Christian Taugner

— Brewers Farm (@BrewersFarm) April 4, 2018

Francis (7th round) was the highest selection of the group of hurlers that includes Alec Bettinger (10th round), Dylan File (21st round), and Christian Taugner (37th round). The Chipola College product made the fewest appearances out of that group last season, however, finding his way into only 10.0 innings in the Arizona League. He allowed 17 hits and nine runs in his short AZL stint last season, but did put together an encouraging 13:3 K/BB ratio. A jump in velocity helped bump up Francis’s stock prior to last summer’s draft. According to Francis, in an interview with Brad Ford at Brew Crew Ball, he regularly throws in the 90-93 MPH range with his sinking fastball and will also mix in a slider and changeup. Baseball America (BA) projects Francis as a future bullpen arm, but he has the ideal build (6’5″, 240 lbs) to remain a starter and the Brewers figure to give him every opportunity to continue down that path, so long as he’s successful in his role.

Alec Bettinger was a senior sign for Milwaukee last summer out of Virginia, where he pitched mostly as a multi-inning bullpen arm. He was assigned to rookie-level Helena in the Pioneer League upon signing and wound up finishing third on the squad with 50.7 innings pitched across 15 appearances (9 starts). The circuit is heavily tilted towards offense, so Bettinger’s 4.97 ERA was actually quite a bit better than the league’s average ERA of 5.65. Bettinger was able to keep the ball on the ground at a 53 percent rate and he allowed only one home run, finishing 2nd in the league in HR/9 among those with at least 40 innings pitched. That helped him produce a terrific 84 DRA- despite a more middling 39:23 K/BB ratio. According to BA, “Bettinger shows a low 90s fastball and hits his spots” and the Baseball Draft Report describes a “potent sinker/slider mix.” His future could come as a ground ball specialist out of the bullpen.

One of Bettinger’s teammates in Helena was Dylan File, a righty who was selected from small Dixie State College in the 21st round, the second-highest player ever selected from the school. He left as the college’s all-time leader in wins, innings pitched, and strikeouts, and continued that success into the Pioneer League. Using a fastball that regular ramps up to 94+ MPH, File posted a 4.02 ERA across 47.1 innings with Helena last season. Only three pitchers on the circuit pitched as many as 40 innings and had a lower earned run average than the 21 year old, who compiled 37 strikeouts against only 13 walks. That all added up to a better-than-average DRA- of 90 across his 12 appearances (7 starts) and he’ll get the opportunity to build on that success in the rotation for Appleton.

Finally, the most interesting arm in the group may be 22 year old Christian Taugner, a native of Trevor, Wisconsin. The 37th rounder out of Brown University spent last summer in the AZL, and was flat out dominant. It’s not unusual for a more advanced collegiate arm to perform well in the complex league in Arizona, but even with that in mind Taugner’s numbers jump off the page. He tossed 45.2 innings for the baby Brewers, whiffing 50 batters while yielding only eight free passes. His ERA may have read 3.74, but by Deserved Run Average, there may not have been a better pitcher on the circuit. Taugner posted a 1.87 DRA, which translates to a ridiculous 33 DRA-. Scouting reports on Taugner are difficult to come by, but according to Bobby DeMuro of Baseball Census, the 6’3″ right hander generates “great downward plane” and has a feel for a slider.

The Brewers have seen a couple of later-round collegiate draft picks exceed expectations in recent years. Brandon Woodruff (11th round, 2014) is in the big league rotation right now, Jon Perrin (AAA, 27th round, 2015) and Quintin Torres-Costa (AA, 35th round, 2015) both earned spots in the Arizona Fall League last autumn, Corbin Burnes (4th round, 2016) is considered one of baseball’s top prospects right now, and Thomas Jankins (13th round, 2016) skipped Class-A Advanced to be placed in the rotation this spring. So, which one of the four collegiate arms in Appleton’s rotation will be able to follow in those footsteps and take a major step forward in 2018?

This year, things look different in the minors. The Brewers dropped 16 spots in the Baseball Prospectus organizational rankings, due as much to the underperformance of top draft picks (Trent Grisham, Corey Ray) as the big Christian Yelich trade (which sent away three of the highest ceiling prospects in the system, even if they were risky ones). Looking through the affiliated clubs’ opening day rosters, one can get the feeling that the system is less exciting than the 2016 and 2017 versions; or, if the system remains exciting, it’s exciting because of some of the very raw, underdeveloped talent in the club’s low minor affiliates, rather than the advanced affiliated prospects. Nevertheless, extremes abound for this system, as the Brewers are also using their most advanced affiliates to store MLB 40-man roster players (prospect or not).

Below is a list of the 2018 Top 10 Brewers Baseball Prospectus prospects, as well as eleven additional prospects that were covered in the list, plus Jordan Yamamoto (who was also included in the Yelich trade package). I’ve assembled their 2018 age, assignment, as well as the Overall Future Potential role and likely projection for each player (where available). In the case of the eleven additional prospects, only one role or outlook was typically provided by the scouting team, whereas a “high percentile” and “likely outcome” were both provided for the Top 10.

A few quick notes:

• Yesterday, Brewers beat reported Adam McCalvy reported that Keston Hiura will begin the season as a DH due to some elbow soreness experienced while throwing during camp. This is one key reason that fans need to slow the brakes on Hiura Hype, as the DH-risk remains real, and the highly regarded second base prospect really is not a professional second baseman yet; until that is proved otherwise, one also has to wonder if he will end up in left field or as a DH.

• Anchored by Corey Ray and Trent Grisham, the Double-A Biloxi outfield might have the best bounceback tandem in the system. It’s so easy to find critiques with each player’s development thus far, and yet here we are with both players working a level away from the MLB at very young ages. If either play puts things together at this level, MLB role projections could quickly come into focus.

• Tristen Lutz and Carlos Herrera both debut in full season ball, making A Wisconsin one of the most exciting teams in the system. That team is loaded with sleepers, as well as some prospects like Lutz and Herrera who are looking to define that top percentile MLB role and the risk associated with it.

Of course, this list does not even cover 10 percent of the Brewers system, so while assembled minor league assignments, I collected ten of my favorite “deep system” prospect picks. Here I picked one arm and one bat from each level:

A few quick notes on my favorites:

• I will continue to write about Demi Orimoloye as long as he stands outside of typical top prospect debates, because in terms of having tools and waiting to hone the baseball aspect of the game, there’s probably not a higher return in the system (of true extreme risk players) than Orimoloye putting it all together. Watching his second turn at Wisconsin could demonstrate how likely this type of scenario may be, or how risky Orimoloye really will be.

• I picked a few long development and “old” guys in the system because there are simply some very interesting underlying performances (Daniel Brown, Nelson Hernandez) and tools (Luis Aviles) in some of these minor league grinders. Hernandez and Aviles have not necessarily had easy and clear development paths the last few years, but Hernandez is making his full season debut at a reasonable age overall, and Aviles has always simply been about whether the bat comes around. In 2016, the glove was the same story with Aviles in midseason Wisconsin Timber Rattlers coverage, so there’s a question about how long it’s worth hammering home this scouting line, but here we are with another chance for Aviles to prove himself.

• In contrast, it is worth emphasizing that an extremely athletic, ex-Top 10 Prospect like Tyrone Taylor remains (very) young for Triple-A, and is now working a level removed from the MLB. While there are undoubtedly reasons that Taylor’s prospect star has fallen, the recent identification of mechanical adjustments to unleash MLB stars should underscore that where talented, athletic players work to fix their approach, even a seemingly pedestrian profile can emerge as a productive MLB player. Taylor has the athleticism to work as an MLB depth outfielder, now it is worth seeing whether the bat follows at the most advanced level.

• The aggressive Thomas Jankins assignment is probably my favorite for the 2018 season. At BP Milwaukee last season, Kyle Lesniewski profiled Jankins as one of a handful of intriguing late round arms in the Brewers system. While Jankins might not have the “big stuff” profile of a Trey Supak to dream on, the righty has a command profile that matches some of the analytic trends emerging in the Brewers big league rotation (Zach Davies) and offseason acquisitions (Wade Miley).

Finally, throughout the minor league season, remember to support minor league players in their quest for a living wage, and continue to discuss alternatives to the current format of minor league compensation upheld by Major League Baseball. Prospects deserve transparent press coverage and support from fans, and part of this support should include transparency about MLB efforts to openly suppress pay of their affiliated professional players. It is worth emphasizing that the MLB is codifying their position of exploiting minor league players at a time of great wealth for the sport, as evidenced by the extra $50 million MLB Advanced Media revenue payment paid to every team; in an elite revenue industry, why are many minor league players struggling to earn even $7,000 a year for their professional efforts?