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	<title>Milwaukee &#187; Payton Henry</title>
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		<title>Organizational Audit: Catcher</title>
		<link>http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/10/30/organizational-audit-catcher/</link>
		<comments>http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/10/30/organizational-audit-catcher/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 30 Oct 2018 13:47:26 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Noah Nofz]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[2018 Brewers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[2018 Brewers catcher]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[2018 Brewers catchers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[2018 Brewers top prospects]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Brewers minor leaguers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Brewers minor leagues]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Brewers prospects]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Brewers top prospects]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Christian Bethancourt]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[David Fry]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Dustin Houle]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Eriz Kratz]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jacob Nottingham]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jett Bandy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Manny Pina]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Mario Feliciano]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Max McDowell]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Payton Henry]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Robie Rojas]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stephen Vogt]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[Catcher has been an oft-cited area of need for the Brewers over the last several seasons, starting with the trade of Jonathan Lucroy and leading to plenty of speculation over names like J.T. Realmuto, Wilson Ramos, and, in some sectors… Jonathan Lucroy. More recently, some of this speculation has turned to free-agent-to-be Yasmani Grandal and [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Catcher has been an oft-cited area of need for the Brewers over the last several seasons, starting with the trade of Jonathan Lucroy and leading to plenty of speculation over names like J.T. Realmuto, Wilson Ramos, and, in some sectors… Jonathan Lucroy. More recently, some of this speculation has turned to free-agent-to-be Yasmani Grandal and whether his disastrous October could significantly hurt his value on the free agent market. Is there a bargain to be had? (It won’t; there isn’t.)</p>
<p>Yes, Grandal or Realmuto would represent significant upgrades. But in the meantime, David Stearns, Craig Counsell, and the rest of the Brewers staff have been able to squeeze great value out of the current crop of time-shares and journeymen. Looking beyond the major league roster, catcher is a position full of surprising contributors up and down the organizational ladder. What follows is an overview of some of those contributors, as well as some brief notes on their outlook for the 2019 season and beyond. Upgrading would be nice; staying the course is probably fine, as well.</p>
<hr />
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h3>Major League Options</h3>
<p><strong>Player Name: Plate Appearances, Batting Average / On Base Percentage / Slugging Percentage, Wins Above Replacement Player (WARP)</strong></p>
<p><strong>Manny Piña; 337 PA, .252/.307/.395, 1.7 WARP</strong><br />
For the second year in a row, Piña handled the lion’s share of catching duties for Milwaukee. He continued to be a steady performer, offering tolerable offense and sturdy defense. His offensive production fell off some, relative to his breakout 2017 campaign, thanks to a slow start and a dip in Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP). Piña turned it on in the second half, hitting .295/.328/.429 after the break even as he lost playing time to immortal folk hero Erik Kratz.</p>
<p>With just over three years of service time on his major league clock, Piña is controllable for three more seasons through the arbitration process. He’ll be 34 by then, so it’s likely that someone else will have wrested away the bulk of available playing time behind the dish. Still, he handles a pitching staff well, and figures to get plenty of turns through the order in 2019 barring a major roster shakeup.</p>
<p><strong>Erik Kratz; 219 PA, .236/.280/.355, 1.4 WARP</strong><br />
Erik Kratz came to the Brewers via a surprise trade with the Yankees, and wasted little time in endearing himself to fans and teammates alike. Though he didn&#8217;t bring much of a big league résumé into Milwaukee, he performed quite well in limited time, making up for his anemic offensive output with superlative glove work (11.1 Adjusted Fielding Runs Above Average in fewer than 500 defensive innings!).</p>
<p>Kratz elected free agency when he was removed from the Yankees’ 40-man roster prior to the 2018 season. He re-signed with New York before his trade to Milwaukee, but finished the year with fewer than six years of big league service time to his name. He can be controlled via arbitration for the 2019 season, though at age 39, he may have retirement (or a late career surge as a knuckle-balling reliever) on his mind. I’m not betting on a return, much as my heart hopes otherwise.</p>
<p><strong>Stephen Vogt; Did Not Play in Majors (Shoulder Surgery)</strong><br />
All-around good guy Stephen Vogt was limited to 9 plate appearances for the Biloxi Shuckers in May before undergoing season-ending shoulder surgery. It was the second major shoulder operation of Vogt’s career; his big league future is in jeopardy. I&#8217;m not aware of any public information on his rehab, but Vogt could be controlled via arbitration in 2019 if he’s able to work his way back to the ball field.</p>
<p>For his career, Vogt is a .251/.310/.416 hitter, good for a strong .267 True Average (TAv). He’s below-average with the glove, though, and struggled to throw out base runners even before re-injuring his throwing arm. He’s well-loved among his teammates, but Vogt’s path back to the majors may be as a reserve first baseman or a DH.</p>
<p><strong>Jacob Nottingham; 196 PA, .281/.347/.528 in Triple-A</strong><br />
Public opinion of Nottingham was fairly sour heading in to the year, and it’s not too difficult to see why: A .209/.326/.369 slash line in your second year of AA isn’t going to win over many casual fans. Biloxi is a run-suppressing environment, though, in a tough league for hitters. So that same ugly triple-slash translated to a barely-above-average.264 TAv. This year, with much better baseball-card stats courtesy of Colorado Springs, Nottingham’s TAv in the minors was all the way up to .282.</p>
<p>Expecting that kind of production in the big leagues, at least at first, is probably foolish. In his (very) limited time in Milwaukee, Nottingham compiled just 24 plate appearances and looked a tad over-matched at times, striking out on eight occasions. He also drew four walks, to his credit, and the sample size is far too small to be seriously examined. Most excitingly, Nottingham can seriously hurt a baseball when he finds one in his sweet spot, to the tune of 450+ feet. He’s made tremendous strides with the glove over the last few years, transforming himself into something approaching an average defensive catcher. Couple that with league-average-or-better offense at the position, and he still has the ability to produce sneaky value for the Brewers over the next six seasons. (Catchers in 2018 batted .232/.304/.372, so Nottingham doesn’t have to turn into Pudge Rodriguez to give the Brewers a boost.) I’m hoping he piles up a couple hundred big league plate appearances next season.</p>
<p><strong>Jett Bandy; 216 PA, .292/.353/.510 in Triple-A</strong><br />
Bandy broke camp with the Brewers, but failed to impress. He hit .188/.268/.266 with shaky defense in 24 games before being removed from the roster and passed over on waivers. The 28-year-old came alive in Triple-A, but he’s reaching do-or-die status as a major league contributor. He’ll have to contend with at least two of the above names on the depth chart, and will likely struggle to find big league playing time should he remain in the Brewers organization. Still, he’s youngish enough and talented enough that he has a chance to shed his current quad-A label and become a solid backup with some pop.</p>
<hr />
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h3>Prospects and Depth</h3>
<p><strong>Christian Bethancourt; 418 PA, .297/.328/.506 in Triple-A</strong><br />
Brought in on a minor league pact, Bethancourt played very well in his return from the pitcher’s mound. He has soft hands behind the dish, and a good arm. He also hit a bit in Colorado Springs, with 20 home runs and a nifty .271 TAv. One knock on his offense: He gave away plenty of walks as a pitcher, but largely refuses them as a hitter.</p>
<p>Bethancourt was brought into the organization on a minor league pact. There will be plenty of plate appearances available for catchers in AAA next year, but it’s no guarantee that Bethancourt will be making the move to San Antonio along with the rest of the organization&#8217;s most advanced minor leaguers. Plenty of rebuilding clubs may take a roll of the dice on the former top prospect.</p>
<p><strong>Dustin Houle and Max McDowell, Advanced A &amp; Double-A</strong><br />
These two are the same age, and at about the same stage developmentally. Houle was drafted out of high school way back in 2011; McDowell followed from college in 2015.</p>
<p>Houle is a big-bodied catcher without a true carrying tool. He’s got a decent arm and is fairly strong, but the lack of a hit tool cramps his game power. He’s a nice organizational depth piece, but something very strange will have happened if he sees major league time in 2019.</p>
<p>McDowell has a bit more upside, with a strong throwing arm, decent athleticism, solid glove, and some untapped raw power. He flashed a nice bat in Wisconsin in 2016, but his hit tool hasn’t progressed much as he’s moved up the ladder. He’s got a chance to turn into a light-hitting backup at the highest level.</p>
<p><strong>Mario Feliciano; 165 PA, .205/.282/.329 in Advanced A </strong><br />
2018 was basically a lost season for the 19-year-old, who battled back from an arm injury to play in 42 games for the Carolina Mudcats. He started slow in June, showed signs of life in July, then cratered in August. It was a disappointing year for a player who impressed in 2017 as one of the youngest prospects in the Midwest League. Ultimately, though, I see little reason to dampen long-term expectations. Catching at Class-Advanced A is an almost laughable challenge for a 19-year-old. He should return for another round in 2019, and I expect him to play pretty well. Keep in mind that the Carolina League is hard on hitters, so his stat line may not be all that impressive. The fact that he’ll be there at all, though, at 20 years old? Impressive. The defense could use some work, and he has plenty of time for that. Meanwhile, he could develop into a .270 hitter with a line-drive approach and average power.</p>
<p>Feliciano is currently playing in the Arizona Fall League to make up for some of his lost time this year. It’s not working, though: He’s only worked his way into two games, with one single in four at bats.</p>
<p><strong>Payton Henry; 389 PA, .234/.327/.380 in Advanced A</strong><br />
Henry had a rough April and a tremendous May, followed by an acceptable June and July and a ghastly August and September. He’s a bat-first prospect with plus raw power, but he struck out in about 32 percent of his plate appearances. He needs to work on his receiving and his arm if he wants to stay behind the plate; he becomes a much less exciting prospect if he moves to first base or an outfield corner.</p>
<hr />
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><strong>Worth Noting</strong><br />
Finally, backstops David Fry and Robie Rojas are due a mention here. Fry hit .315/.406/.563 while playing catcher, first base, and third base for the rookie league Helena Brewers. He drew 29 walks and struck out just 42 times in 261 plate appearances. Rojas, a 38th-round pick in 2017, spent plenty of time on the 7-day Disabled List and was relegated to the minor league taxi squad. He managed just 66 plate appearances on the year, including 13 at Triple-A, and hit surprisingly well in a (very small) 13-game sample in Carolina. All together, he had a line of .304/.409/.393.</p>
<p>Fry’s rookie league stats, while nice, are by and large worthless, and I have no idea what to make of Rojas at this point. But I’ll be curious to see what the organization does with both of these prospects in 2019.</p>
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		<title>Minor League Stories to Watch</title>
		<link>http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/04/10/minor-league-stories-to-watch/</link>
		<comments>http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/04/10/minor-league-stories-to-watch/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 10 Apr 2018 12:21:02 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Noah Nofz]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[2018 Brewers minor league analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[2018 Brewers minor leagues]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[2018 Brewers prospects]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[2018 Brewers top prospects]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Corbin Burnes]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Freddy Peralta]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jacob Nottingham]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Keston Hiura]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[KJ Harrison]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Kodi Medeiros]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Nathan Kirby]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Payton Henry]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Trent Grisham]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tristen Lutz]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Troy Stokes]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=11428</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Minor League baseball is underway, and the Brewers brought a strong system into 2018 in spite of recent trades and graduations. Expect plenty more graduations this year, and maybe some trades, too. What stands out about this Milwaukee system is its depth. There are plenty of talented players waiting to rise up and claim their [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Minor League baseball is underway, and the Brewers brought a strong system into 2018 in spite of recent trades and graduations. Expect plenty more graduations this year, and maybe some trades, too. What stands out about this Milwaukee system is its depth. There are plenty of talented players waiting to rise up and claim their spots on organizational top prospect lists to come. Below, I run down a few of the most compelling players at each full-season level, from big names to forgotten names to names that could be big or forgotten by this time next year.</p>
<p><strong> </strong></p>
<p><strong>AAA Colorado Springs Sky Sox</strong><br />
<strong>Who to Watch: </strong>The pitchers. Good news for those who distrust the Brewers’ current starting rotation: Help is on the way! The bad news is that said help is pitching at elevation, in conditions which have caused more than one pitcher to lose their feel for a breaking ball. Still, the fact that the organization has top prospects Corbin Burnes and Freddy Peralta awaiting a call in Colorado is in itself exciting. After coaxing Brandon Woodruff and Josh Hader through limited reps at Colorado Springs last season, there’s a template in place that could have Burnes and Peralta each recording big league outs as soon as the middle of the year. Both have potential to flourish as mid-rotation starters, with Burnes possessing both a higher ceiling and floor. But Peralta is no slouch; he should at least have impact potential as a reliever, and could wind up as a bullpen ace if the starting rotation isn’t his long-term home.</p>
<p>Perhaps the most exciting thing about the Sky Sox pitching staff is its depth. Burnes and Peralta are the top two names, but Junior Guerra and Wade Miley will make big league starts this year, and Brandon Woodruff is due back in Milwaukee any minute. Meanwhile, Jorge López is back in Colorado Springs to exorcise some personal demons two years after a disastrous turn for the Sky Sox tanked his prospect stock. Even if his path to the big leagues now lies through the bullpen, there’s plenty of reason to believe in his arm. If the big league staff stumbles, the call-ups could come in thick and fast.</p>
<p><strong>Honorable Mention:</strong> Jacob Nottingham has quietly improved behind the plate to the point that he should be able to handle a big league staff. Take a peek behind his uninspiring slash line for Biloxi last year (.209/.326/.369), and you’ll see that he was actually a hair above league average with the stick last year by advanced metrics like TAv and wRC+. If he can continue to produce at that offensive rate (he’s off to a good start through his first few games), there’s plenty of reason to think that he’ll at least be able to hold down a job as a big league backup as early as next year.</p>
<p><strong>AA Biloxi Shuckers</strong><br />
<strong>Who to Watch: </strong>The outfield. Corey Ray and Trent Grisham are the most familiar names here, but Troy Stokes, Jr. turned the most heads last year, reaching AA for the first time and posting a strong .279 TAv through 153 plate appearances. Stokes is a 5’8” right-handed hitter with good speed and some surprising pop. He’ll need to work on his barrel control and cut back on popups to take the next step.</p>
<p>The extraordinarily patient Grisham will watch his share of pitches sale by (his 98 walks were second in the minors last year), but when he does swing he uses his whole body to whip the bat through the plate at incredible speed. The hit tool needs to progress, but he’s got an elite eye and heaps of potential.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, Corey Ray struck out ten times in his first twenty at-bats, but still flashes the tools that made him a fifth-overall draft pick in 2016. </p>
<p><strong>Honorable Mention:</strong> Kodi Medeiros is probably headed for a relief role in the majors, but the Brewers will keep developing him as a starter as long as they can. His funky delivery and low arm slot are hell on same-sided batters, albeit less so for those with the platoon advantage. Medeiros still has that wipeout slider that turned heads in high school, and he’s finally learning how to locate it. With a little more consistency, he could shoot up the fast track and into the big league ‘pen.</p>
<p><strong>A+ Carolina Mudcats</strong><br />
<strong>Who to Watch: </strong>Keston Hiura, obviously. He’s off to a slow start (1-15, 5 Ks in 16 plate appearances) but there’s little doubt that he’s going to hit…and hit and hit. Unless his elbow implodes and necessitates surgery, Hiura stands a strong chance to taste Biloxi by mid-summer. Most don’t expect him in the majors until late 2019 at the earliest, but blue-chip prospects have a knack for setting their own timelines as they climb the organizational rungs.</p>
<p><strong>Honorable Mention:</strong> Left-handed hurler Nathan Kirby, whose elbow actually <em>did</em> implode a few years back, is healthy for the first time since 2015. Back in college, he wowed scouts with a nifty fastball and two strong secondary pitches. Now 24 years old, he’s rebuilding his arm strength in Carolina and making up for lost time. If it all clicks and Kirby stays healthy, he could vault himself back to top-prospect status in a hurry.</p>
<p><strong>A- Wisconsin Timber Rattlers</strong><br />
<strong>Who to Watch:</strong> Tristen Lutz is going to hit a lot of home runs. The Brewers grabbed Lutz with the 34th overall pick last summer, and word is that they were considering him at number nine, too. He’s a Texan, just out of high school, and he tore through the rookie leagues last summer. The folks at FanGraphs tabbed Lutz as the #68 overall prospect entering the season thanks to his light-tower raw power and elite exit velocities. He could be a Corey Hart-type force in the heart of the lineup, with plenty of arm for right field.</p>
<p><strong>Honorable </strong><strong>M</strong><strong>ention</strong><strong>:</strong> Catchers KJ Harrison (third rounder in 2017) and Payton Henry (sixth rounder in 2016) are variations on the same theme. Both are good-hitting catchers with pop. They’re also both very raw receivers, and it’s conceivable that both could get pushed out from behind the dish to first base or possibly left field, where they’d need the bats to play in order to retain much value. But if even one of them makes some defensive strides without slipping on offense, the crop of young catchers on the farm will start to look very appealing.</p>
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