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	<title>Milwaukee &#187; Rebuilding Roster Construction</title>
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		<title>The Impact of a Productive Middle of the Lineup</title>
		<link>http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/05/18/the-impact-of-a-productive-middle-of-the-lineup/</link>
		<comments>http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/05/18/the-impact-of-a-productive-middle-of-the-lineup/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 18 May 2016 16:00:51 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Seth Victor]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Commentary]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Player Analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Chris Carter]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jonathan Lucroy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rebuilding Roster Construction]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ryan Braun]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=4571</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[There can be no disputing the fact that the Brewers are rebuilding. The club spent the offseason taking on upside plays, and they are not and should not be in any hurry to make moves to improve on their current fourth-place standing. But that sub-.500 record is the mainly the fault of the pitchers; the [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><span style="font-weight: 400">There can be no disputing the fact that the Brewers are rebuilding. The club spent the offseason taking on upside plays, and they are not and should not be in any hurry to make moves to improve on their current fourth-place standing. But that sub-.500 record is the mainly the fault of the pitchers; the Brewers’ pitching staff ranks </span><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/sortable/index.php?cid=1934015"><span style="font-weight: 400">last</span></a><span style="font-weight: 400"> in PWARP, while the position players rank </span><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/sortable/index.php?cid=1934960"><span style="font-weight: 400">twelfth</span></a><span style="font-weight: 400"> in VORP.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Much of the offensive production has come from the middle of the Brewers’ order, where Ryan Braun, Chris Carter, and Jonathan Lucroy lead all regulars in TAv. And while none of these three players is at the same point in their respective careers, each has one thing in common: they are all veterans at or slightly past their peaks.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Braun is 32 and signed through 2020, and his contract is relatively hefty at approximately $20 million per year—although it is not as unwieldy as it appeared when the deal was signed. However, he is now several years removed from his MVP-level peak and no team will pay the kind of price the Brewers would have been able to charge a few years ago, no matter how well he hits.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Lucroy is in his age-30 season and he is under team control through next year. He famously commented during the spring that he didn&#8217;t want to play for a rebuilding team but the Brewers do not have to be in a hurry to trade their star catcher, particularly given his poor 2015 and apparent subsequent rebound. His 2016 this far has been excellent, to the tune of a .308 TAv.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Carter has the biggest opportunity for surplus value, but he is a 29-year-old whose best season before this one was a 2.6 WARP year with Houston in 2014. As he is arbitration-eligible and under team control for another two years after 2016, the Brewers ccould have a legitimate big league star on a cheap contract if everything breaks right. Even if Carter hits his best-case scenario, however, the Brewers won&#8217;t likely be ready to truly compete until his last year with the club at the earliest.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">The point of this is to say that the Brewers’ current offensive strength is being driven by a core group of players that simply won&#8217;t be around in their current form by the time the organization is ready to compete again. They don&#8217;t look to have an exact timeline, but the frailties of the pitching staff indicate that the team is farther away than it would have hoped.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">But this fact &#8211; despite being a net negative in terms of team-building &#8211; does not take away from these three players’ relative value to the Brewers. Having positive, productive players on young and rebuilding teams is not a bad thing, despite what the 2013 Astros would have you believe.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">The most clear and obvious reason for this is trade value. Braun, Lucroy, and (most likely) Carter either will not be with the team or will not be this good when the club is competitive again, so an obvious way to maximize their future impact is to trade them. Lucroy, with his track record and cheap team option for next season, is clearly the most valuable asset here, but Braun and Carter (presuming this improvement is real) also have trade value. Braun’s bounce-back season coupled with rising salaries for top-end players makes him a more viable trade candidate than he otherwise appeared to be. If Carter remains a .300 TAv hitter, teams will be happy to take a flier on a post-hype sleeper with two more years of arbitration-controlled salaries.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">On the field, though, there is likely some amount of positive value as well. First, despite the fact that there are no definitive conclusions about chemistry and a “winning culture,” it&#8217;s hard to imagine that getting blown out every night is good for young players’ emotional development. Instead, the Brewers get to take advantage of a productive middle of the order and use a competent offense to compete on most nights. They are not good enough to blow any chance at a top draft pick and more pool money, but the club is competitive and not a joke. There is likely some benefit to young players &#8211; particularly once Orlando Arcia and Brett Phillips make their debuts &#8211; being part of a team with good players and attempting to develop winning habits.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">And second, there simply aren’t any young players who Lucroy, Braun, and Carter are blocking at this time. The Brewers’ best prospects are a shortstop and center fielder, so they aren’t losing any sort of development time by handing plate appearances to these veterans. In fact, having veterans who are able to anchor the middle of the lineup allows other players to hit in lower-pressure situations. Again, the club’s true building blocks are not yet on the big league roster, but even players such as Domingo Santana and Scooter Gennett benefit from not being the center of attention every night and having to deal with the pressure that comes with hitting in the middle of a lineup.</span></p>
<p><strong><span style="font-weight: 400">Braun, Lucroy, and (this version of) Carter are all good hitters toiling for a bad team, but that doesn’t mean they don’t provide any value. Whether it is serving as role models or simply providing positive on-field value, the three of them can in fact be productive and valuable to the Brewers.</span></strong></p>
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		<title>Shane Peterson&#8217;s Role in 2016</title>
		<link>http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2015/12/08/shane-petersons-role-in-2016/</link>
		<comments>http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2015/12/08/shane-petersons-role-in-2016/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 08 Dec 2015 18:25:47 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Seth Victor]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Making Replacement Level Look Good]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Player Analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rebuilding Roster Construction]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Shane Peterson]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=2864</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Center field is a problem area for the Brewers. They don’t currently have a great option on the roster, as Domingo Santana best fits in right field despite getting the majority of the playing time in center down the stretch. They do, though, have minor-league options who are likely to be ready at some point [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Center field is a problem area for the Brewers. They don’t currently have a great option on the roster, as Domingo Santana best fits in right field despite getting the majority of the playing time in center down the stretch. They do, though, have minor-league options who are likely to be ready at some point during the 2016 season &#8212; or shortly thereafter &#8212; so spending in free agency to get a legitimate starter also seems like a questionable use of resources.</span><strong><strong> </strong></strong></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">This is where Shane Peterson becomes significant. The 27-year-old was essentially a minor-league lifer until last season. After being drafted in 2008, he spent several years in the minor leagues before briefly surfacing in 2013 to get eight plate appearances with the A’s. He then proceeded to spend all of 2014 in Triple-A, and it’s not as if he hit the cover off the ball in the minors, either &#8212; if he had, he would have gotten a chance to prove himself earlier. His .804 OPS across all levels of the minors is fine but unspectacular, especially when combined with the fact that he was actually more of a left fielder than a center fielder (nearly 2500 innings in left compared to just over 1700 in center).</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Thus, there was no real reason to think that Peterson really deserved a shot in the Major Leagues. To be honest, he it&#8217;s arguable that he still doesn’t. In 226 plate appearances, he put up just 0.2 WARP. Extrapolated over a full season (600 PAs), Peterson would have been worth just over half a win, which is within the margin of error of being nothing but replacement level.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">However, the Brewers clearly found something they liked, at least a little bit. He made his season debut on June 3 and from that point on got into nearly </span><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.cgi?id=petersh01&amp;t=b&amp;year="><span style="font-weight: 400">every game</span></a><span style="font-weight: 400">. He played both center field and left field, although most of his center field appearances came prior to Santana’s promotion to The Show.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">I would not recommend that a team with any hope of contending for a playoff spot employ Peterson. He’s simply too limited a player; he’s not an elite defensive center fielder (if he were, he would be getting playing time there) which means he shouldn&#8217;t be used as a defensive replacement, and he’s not a good enough hitter to be a worthy pinch hitter. However, if the Brewers don’t make any additions to the roster, Peterson will likely receive a significant number of plate appearances in 2016.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Earlier this offseason, David Stearns </span><a href="http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/story/milwaukee-brewers-aramis-ramirez-carlos-gomez-elian-herrera-domingo-santana-david-stearns-team-needs-111115"><span style="font-weight: 400">said</span></a><span style="font-weight: 400"> that Santana is “probably best suited for a corner.” This quote is likely to manifest in specific changes sooner rather than later, as the organization will want to give Santana the best chance to grow and develop as a player, and that should probably come at his natural position. This, though, would mean moving him out of center field, which he occupied for much of August and September.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Brett Phillips and/or Tyrone Taylor aren’t ready to break spring training with the big-league team, though, although they will &#8212; hopefully &#8212; be ready at some point in 2016. Until that time, though, the Brewers will have fill center field somehow. And, in the interests of more fully developing their actual prospects (like Santana), Shane Peterson appears to be the in-house answer.</span><strong><strong> </strong></strong></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">The Brewers would undoubtedly be better off finding someone more qualified to fill the role, but they won’t want to irreparably block the position by signing a free agent to a long-term contract, and it will be hard to find someone worth signing who would be comfortable being just a fill-in. If we take the Brewers’ clear acceptance of the fact that they will not be competing in 2016 to its logical end, it doesn’t really matter who plays center field for the first three months. They won’t be good enough to compete for the playoffs regardless of whether the position is filled by Peterson or someone marginally better.</span><strong><strong> </strong></strong></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">While that is probably not the approach the Brewers will want to take on the field or the message they will want their young players to absorb, the fact is that it is likely true. I wouldn’t be surprised if they sign someone who is slightly better than Peterson simply because it is such an obvious spot to upgrade, but they won’t be breaking the bank to fill a spot that hopefully won’t need filling in 2017, and the difference between Peterson and whomever they bring in this winter to replace him will basically be virtually nothing.</span></p>
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