Now that the games are starting, we can say that Spring Training is really beginning in earnest. Doing drills, throwing bullpens, and taking live batting practice is one thing, but performances in Cactus League games will go a long way into determining who will make the roster and who will begin the season in the minor leagues. For the Brewers, pretty much every spot in the starting lineup is already spoken for besides catcher, and there are seven major league veterans competing for the starting rotation. There will be some competition, however, for the final couple of spots on the bench and in the bullpen.

Each season, there are a few surprise players who make enough of a case to begin the year in The Show. Last year, Chris Capuano and Blaine Boyer broke camp with Milwaukee after signing minor league deals the previous winter. In 2015, Michael Blazek was the unheralded prospect who showed enough to get the call to the big leagues. In 2014, non-roster veterans Mark Reynolds, Lyle Overbay, and Zack Duke all earned Opening Day nods. So which players could catch us off-guard with a strong spring this year and earn a ticket to Milwaukee come April? Here are some players I’ll be watching this spring:

RHP Ryan Webb
A veteran of parts of eight major league seasons, the Brewers signed the 31 year old Webb to a minor league deal back in December. His velocity was down a bit in 2016 during a small, 17.3 inning sample with the Rays, and he managed only a 5.19 ERA and 5.05 DRA before getting cut. He did display above-average command last year (0.10 percent CSAA), and prior to 2016 he had posted league-average or better ERA’s and DRA’s every year dating back to 2010. The ground-ball specialist (58 percent GB rate for his career) could serve in that sort of Blaine Boyer-type role in the front of the bullpen, providing a steady veteran presence to help along the younger arms while also eating up innings.

LHP Andrew Barbosa
As recently as 2015, Andrew Barbosa was out of MLB-affiliated ball and pitching for the Long Island Ducks of the independent Atlantic League. The former 36th round pick (2012, Diamondbacks) parlayed that successful showing into a minor league deal with the Mets last year, and he responded by posting a 1.51 ERA and 71:19 K/BB ratio in 71.1 innings across four levels, including reaching the AAA level for the first time in his career. Barbosa towers over hitters standing at 6’8″, and his over-the-top delivery creates a significant downward angle that makes his 90ish MPH fastball quite a bit more intimidating for hitters. He’s coming off a highly successful showing with Mayaguez in the Puerto Rican winter league, and with only Brent Suter and Tommy Milone realistically competing for left-handed spots on the roster (it’s highly unlikely the club will ignore service time implications for Josh Hader), the 29 year old Barbosa may be looking at the best opportunity of his career to make it to the big leagues.

RHP Jorge Lopez
It wasn’t too long ago that Lopez was considered the organization’s top pitching prospect, but a brutal 2016 season has dulled most of the outside excitement around the 24 year old. After working on some mechanical adjustments during Fall Instructs, Lopez dominated the Puerto Rican winter league circuit, posting a 1.56 ERA across 34.7 innings with 32 strikeouts, 13 walks, just 17 hits allowed, and a league-leading 0.87 WHIP. A return trip to Colorado Springs for the young righty would not be advisable, in my opinion, and Lopez has nothing left to prove by pitching a third season in AA. BPMilwaukee editor-in-chief Nicholas Zettel made the case for Lopez to begin the year in the big league starting rotation earlier this month, however a role as a swingman in the bullpen may be more realistic. Pitching in such a capacity would allow Lopez to prove he can get major league hitters out in lower-leverage situations and he could work his way into a more prominent position should he find success; when the club inevitably needs a spot starter or someone to move into the starting rotation, Lopez could make that transition. This is similar to how the Orioles deployed Dylan Bundy last season.

1B Jesus Aguilar
Jesus Aguilar is no longer considered a rookie and is currently on the 40 man roster, but his situation is a bit tenuous as an out-of-options player. The Brewers claimed him off waivers from the Indians a few weeks ago and unless he can win a bench spot in camp, he would need to be exposed to waivers once again in order to be sent to the minor leagues. The 27 year old has shown plus power in the minor leagues, clubbing 68 home runs in 386 games at AAA, including an International League-leading 30 round-trippers last year. He’s posted palatable strikeout (19.5 percent) and walk (10 percent) rates at the highest level of the minors along with an .818 OPS. Aguilar just hasn’t been able to carry that production over to the big leagues yet, where pitchers have exploited him to the tune of 21 strikeouts in 64 plate appearances while he’s hit .172/.234/.190. That’s hardly enough of a sample to accurate conclusions from, of course, and Aguilar should get a decent shot this year to prove he can be more than a quad-A first baseman. He could serve as a right-handed compliment to Eric Thames at first base and provide some insurance there if Thames cannot translate his KBO production back to the MLB. Aguilar has also played a little bit of third base and left field during his minor league career, and if he can show Craig Counsell the ability to be passable at multiple positions it would greatly improve his chances of making the roster.

It would’ve been one thing if he were performing while healthy, but he posted a 5.19 ERA while he was on the mound, deeming him expendable to a low-budget team like the Tampa Bay Rays. Upon closer inspection on how Ryan Webb’s 2016 season played out, and taking into account the sustained success he enjoyed prior to the 2016 season, and betting on a clean bill of health for the veteran right-hander, the Brewers might have found themselves a valuable bullpen piece and future trade candidate.

From 2009-2015, Webb posted a 3.35 ERA in 376 innings, providing 4.0 WARP in the process. He kept the ball on the ground with a 56.5 GB percentage and the ball in the yard with a 7.2 HR/FB percentage. He excelled in multiple different ballparks and organizations, playing for the Padres, Marlins, Orioles, and Indians in that seven year period. All of this adds up to the type of player who should garner a multi-year deal around six or seven million dollars in this robust relief pitcher market. Webb never got such a contract. He signed a $1 million deal with the Rays in February of 2016 with 500K in incentives before seeing his season fall apart to injury.

On the surface it is understandable why Webb was forced to settle for a minor-league contract: the major injury, the underwhelming performance, and being on the wrong side of thirty. Taking all of this into account there is still major reason to believe the soon-to-be 31 year old will go back to his pre-2016 success in 2017. The issue of small sample size comes up immediately. Yes, he posted a 5.19 ERA while entering the declining years of his career but it was only in 17.3 innings. The bloated ERA was accompanied by a unsustainably high .419 BABIP. In turn his FIP was roughly in line with his career numbers at 3.86. He suffered from severe bad luck even before the injury. His BB/9 were actually lower than any other season is his career. He allowed 14 H/9 which screams horrible luck.

It wasn’t just luck that doomed his 2016 season, but overuse most likely played a huge role in his performance on the mound and subsequent injury. On May 25th 2016, Webb held a sparkling 2.87 ERA in 15 2/3 innings. Once again, small sample size, but this shows exactly where the right-handers season went awry. He pitched 2/3 of an inning on May 22nd without giving up a baserunner after pitching the second longest outing of his career three days prior, three shutdown innings against the Detroit Tigers. The very next day, May 26th against the Miami Marlins, he faced five batters giving up three hits and a run. A few days later he was placed on the disabled list with a pectoral strain. It’s easy to believe he was dealing with some kind of injury, whether that be from the long outing on May 22nd, the back-to-back outings on May 25th and 26th, or a combination of both.

Originally, Webb wasn’t supposed to be out long but his next outing, and eventually his final outing as a major leaguer in 2016, exactly a month later on June 26th showed that maybe he came back a little too soon. He gave up five hits in eight batters, giving up four runs in the process. He got through the inning but was designated for assignment the next day and released July 6th. He signed a minor league contract with the White Sox a couple days later but never made it back to the big leagues. It seems as though he tried to come back from the pectoral injury a bit early and it ended up costing him his second half of the season and millions of dollars in the process. The Brewers jumped on this opportunity to buy an asset at a depressed price.

There are multiple ways to look at Ryan Webb’s case. The pectoral injury could be much more serious than previously thought and he may never throw another major league pitch again. I find it much more likely that he pushed himself in search of that big contract and in the process destroyed his value with the injury and with an entire offseason rest he will go back to the solid middle relief piece he was prior to the 2016 season. Look for Ryan Webb to be a solid piece of the Brewers bullpen and a valuable trade chip at the 2016 deadline.