Is Ryan Braun headed back to left field? https://t.co/ui0Ii9HEZr pic.twitter.com/0VyQerfLeJ

— Journal Sentinel (@journalsentinel) February 15, 2016

The move would make sense on two fronts. First off, there’s the fact that Domingo Santana — the team’s projected starting center fielder prior to the trade — came through the minor leagues as a right fielder, and his arm fits that position far better. On top of that, Ryan Braun is a very good left fielder and a pretty mediocre right fielder.

@1057FMTheFan per @fangraphs, Braun has 26 Defensive Runs Saved in 6 seasons in LF and -8 runs saved in 2 seasons in RF. A no brainer.

— Kyle L. (@brewerfan28) February 16, 2016

These two shifts leave the middle of the outfield uncovered, but thanks to a hyper-productive offseason, the Brewers are not hurting for options when it comes to the final starting job. Counting the previously-mentioned Santana, there are a total of five players reporting to camp who could see the lion’s share of playing centerfield. Their games all look different and the paths they all took to get here are just as variable, but in the end, one of them will be Milwaukee’s new starting center fielder.

(Unless otherwise noted, I used the BP Similarity Index — found on each Player Card — for the comparisons.)

Alex Presley – The Longshot Journeyman

How he was acquired: The Brewers signed him to a minor-league deal in December. For him to win the job, he basically has to outplay everybody else by a notable margin this spring. There’s no room for error.

What he did last year: The former Pirates’ left fielder served as organizational depth for the Astros, making a 3-for-12 cameo for the big-league club in July. Over the Triple-A season, he slashed .292/.345/.367 with fifteen stolen bases. Presley’s career is trending in the wrong direction, and he’s not on the side of thirty years old where players usually rebound.

Strengths: Presley is the only player in this discussion with more than 1,000 Major League at-bats to his name. Five years ago, he came within two points of hitting .300 for the year. Uhh, he won’t hit too many home runs, but when he does, his name lends itself to an underrated “Elvis has left the building!” pun. I’m fully aware that I’m reaching like crazy here, thank you.

Weaknesses: Presley’s power and speed are minimal. You could call his contact “plus,” but you wouldn’t really mean it. It’s just that he’s such a hard worker, a nice guy, he’s got no real plus tools, and you wanted to be polite. Defensively, the writing is on the wall. Presley has cost his teams more than ten runs over the years. He can only hit lefties, and most pitchers are righties. One-win Triple-A players past the growth ages don’t all of a sudden turn into serviceable major leaguers. His walk-up music isn’t “Jailhouse Rock.”

Optimistic Major-League Comparison: Presley’s lefty-lambasting ways and featherweight tools are reminiscent of a slower Craig Gentry, or a less dynamic Rajai Davis. With his power/speed contribution probably limited to 10/10 in optimal circumstances, he’s sort of like Chris Denorfia with the opposite platoon split. Look, Presley is thirty years old and just spent a full season blending in at the Triple-A level. If he makes any impact at the major-league level whatsoever, it’ll be a bonus for the team.

Outlook: Once upon a time, Presley stole Pittsburgh’s left-field job once upon a time through a combination of luck, contact hitting, and the overall crumminess of Jose Tabata. Those days are behind him, but Presley is a steady piece of organizational depth who can hold down the fort for a week or two without humiliating the team if desperation strikes.

Shane Peterson – The Discarded Incumbent

How he was acquired: The Brewers plucked Peterson off of waivers from the Cubs in  December of 2014, less than a month after the Cubs claimed him from the Oakland A’s. That year-plus in the organization makes him the most tenured option for the centerfield job by a wide margin.

What he did last year: Peterson’s rookie year wasn’t a disaster. He slashed .259/.324/.353 in 201 at-bats — certainly not exciting numbers, but no worse than replacement level. Defensively it was the same story; he saved approximately one run per month in the field. The whole package was worth a fifth of a win, total. Cue the Monty-Python-style sarcastic cheering. It’s tough to get excited about such a beige ballplayer, but I’ve got a trick: try to remember the dark days of “Alex Sanchez, Starting CF/Leadoff Hitter.” Now, before you reflexively reach for the liquor bottle, think about Peterson again. He’s still not exciting, but don’t you like him a lot more?

Strengths: He has no real weaknesses.

Weaknesses: He has no real strengths.

Optimistic Major- League Comparison: Peterson has a BP Similarity Score of 94 relative to former Red Sox outfielder Daniel Nava. Like Peterson, Nava was a non-prospect who finally made the big leagues at age 27. Like Peterson, Nava was an accomplished minor-league hitter whose skills always said “bench bat” or “role player,” rather than “star.” But the 2013 World Champion Sox team would never have won that hardware without a monster .303/.385/.445 season out of Nava, who collected over 400 at-bats and seamlessly filled short-term vacancies at all three outfield spots, plus first base and designated hitter, as the need arose throughout the year. Between 2013 and 2014, he was worth a total of five wins. That’s more than Ryan Braun’s value over the 2014-15 stretch.

Outlook: Being the incumbent in the race usually gives you an advantage. This time, that’s not the case. Peterson was designated for assignment over the winter and, if all goes according to plan, he’s headed back to Triple-A until necessity arises. It’s easy to look at Peterson’s performance down the stretch of 2015 and lament the fact that he probably didn’t deserve to lose his job, but the reality is, “starting centerfielder” was never really his job in the first place. Peterson was a backup plan forced into placeholder duty and, admirable though his 2015 performance may have been, he’s still nothing more than that. With a successful spring and either a stumble or an injury from one of the other candidates, Peterson could very well find himself back in a Milwaukee uniform. But he’s just as likely to spend his year in Colorado Springs.

Rymer Liriano – The Potential Post-Hype Steal

How he was acquired: On January 28, Milwaukee sent minor-league reliever Trevor Seidelberger to the San Diego Padres in exchange for Liriano. At this point in time, Seidelberger is the definition of a non-entity. He’s a 23-year-old bullpen prospect who struggled in his first exposure to Double-A hitters last year. Liriano, on the other hand, is a two-time former BP Top-100 Prospect who has struggled with injuries and seen the Padres pile a roadblock in front of him on the organizational depth chart over the past several years.

What he did last year: He straight-up owned Triple-A pitching. Liriano’s .383 on-base percentage screams “top of the order,” and his 18-steal, 14-homer combination makes him an ideal new-school two-hitter for the Stearns regime. He was one of the toughest outs in professional baseball, yet the Padres were unable to carve out even a single major-league at-bat for Liriano. When he put up bad numbers in the Dominican Winter League and the Padres signed Alexei Ramirez, he was unceremoniously designated for assignment. In swept the Brewers, eager to pick him up at a steep discount.

Strengths: Liriano’s speed has been considered his most valuable asset since he stole 65 bases at Class-A Fort Wayne in 2011. He’s never projected as a slugger, but he’s always been the type of guy whose quick swing and aggressive approach lead to hard contact and a better than expected power profile. Don’t be fooled by that “aggressive,” though. Liriano has an attacking swing but he’s a master at working the count, and he walked at a clip north of 11 percent the past two years at Triple-A. Defensively, he can cover all three outfield positions competently.

Weaknesses: A long swing paired with a patient approach usually leads to a ton of strikeouts, and Liriano is no exception. His whiff rates still more than doubled his walk rates at Triple-A these past two seasons, and at the major-league level in 2014 he struck out almost a third of the time. In the field, Liriano is best deployed as a right fielder, not a center fielder. Overall, that’s not a knock, but in the context of “who will play center field for the Brewers this season,” it totally is.

Optimistic Major-League Comparison: Liriano matches up favorably with Tampa outfielder Steven Souza, a player in relation to whom he owns a 90 Similarity Index score. Both are dynamic speed/power threats who can play anywhere in the outfield, both have missed developmental time due to injury, and both strike out too much to ever post a decent batting average. Last offseason, Souza was traded into a situation where he had the opportunity to win playing time. This offseason, Liriano followed suit. Souza’s 2015 season saw him post nearly a full win above replacement level in spite of a .225 batting average and slightly below-replacement defensive contribution. Liriano has the skill set to do the exact same thing this year, and keep getting better.

Outlook: Smart engineers build with redundancies, and it’s becoming clearer and clearer with each move that David Stearns is engineering an exciting baseball team. It’s easy to look at the Liriano acquisition and think “Why? This guy has the exact same profile as Domingo Santana!” And while that’s 100 percent true, it’s also the answer to the “why.” In exchange for the most marginal of pitching prospects, the Brewers were able to double the odds that they develop an impact outfield talent while slashing the odds that nobody works out for that role. And if both players live up to their potential, well, that’s a great problem for a team to have.

Domingo Santana – The Reassigned(?) One-Time Favorite

How he was acquired: Santana was the most big-league ready piece acquired at the deadline last year for Carlos Gomez. After the trade, he provided over half the value that Gomez did (0.5 WARP to 0.9 WARP).

What he did last year: For one thing, he proved he was done with the minor leagues. Between Fresno and Colorado Springs, Santana slashed .333/.426/.573 with 18 home runs in just 354 at-bats at the Triple-A level. When the Brewers kept him in Triple-A immediately following the trade, he hit .380 over the next twenty games, forcing a promotion. Once in the big leagues, Santana flashed the power that makes him such an exciting young player. He hit six home runs in 121 at-bats for the Brewers, but he was less than stellar in the field and prone to inconsistency. His Dominican League stat line — no home runs in 83 at-bats, and a putrid .181/.244/.217 slash — serves as a reminder that Santana is an exciting, but volatile, young player.

Strengths: Santana is a big dude — 6-foot-5, 225 pounds — and he gets his whole profile into his swing. So, when he makes contact, he absolutely tattoos the ball.

This shows itself both in his isolated power numbers and, additionally, in a higher-than-average expected BABIP. Coming up, he regularly posted BABIP marks in the upper .300s or .400s. After six years, it’s hard to call that a fluke. In the field, Santana’s Howitzer of an arm is a perfect fit for right field, but he’s big and quick enough to reasonably imitate a centerfielder when the need arises, too.

Weaknesses: Domingo’s high-BABIP tendencies would be so much cooler if they weren’t caused by a swing that can be practically compared to a wind tunnel. His minor-league track record suggested the 33 percent whiff rate that Santana posted as a rookie in 2015 was quite likely, and at this point to suggest that he’ll completely overcome the swing-and-miss in his game is nothing but wishful thinking. You can also duplicate the Liriano notes on being a better right fielder. They’re just as applicable for Santana.

Optimistic Major-League Comparison: I’ve always thought of Santana as a poor man’s George Springer — that the Astros traded away Santana because they already had Springer didn’t help this — but the BP Similarity Index doesn’t quite agree with me. Not only is Santana’s overall score of 74 considerably lower than usual, suggesting that he’s a far more one-of-a-kind player than I had anticipated, his top comparison by a four-point margin is San Diego outfielder Wil Myers. If that’s not the Baseball Gods sending a coded “don’t play this guy in centerfield” message, I don’t know what is.

Outlook: The Brewers have said they will not be using Santana in center this year, and that was even before the Davis trade. In light of the move, that is all but a certainty. He has the most professional experience, by far, in right field, and he fits that position best. But Rymer Liriano is also a rightfielder who can sort of play center, and Ramon Flores is considered a “tweener” precisely because he has a centerfielder’s offensive profile but can’t play the position. If either of them breaks through and emerges as the third-best outfielder on the roster, playing Santana in center just might make an awkward sort of sense once again. Still, he’s likely a right fielder for good now.

Keon Broxton – The Untapped Tools

How he was acquired: Many of us loved Jason Rogers here at BP Milwaukee, but that doesn’t mean we weren’t excited by the trade that sent him to Pittsburgh. Back on December 17th, the free-agent market was flooded with first basemen so that the Pirates saw fit to give up Broxton and pitching prospect Trey Supak was, and remains, curious to say the least. Two weeks later, the Pirates signed John Jaso for a mere $4 million a year. He mashes righties, just like Rogers, only he’s better at it and has been at it for longer. Maybe the Pirates were just sending Milwaukee a gift because they knew it was my birthday that day. Thanks, guys, you shouldn’t have!

(No, for real. You shouldn’t have.)

What he did last year: For the second-straight year, Broxton looked like a ballplayer again. His mediocre 2013 season bumped him off of the prospect landscape and inspired Arizona to dump him to the Pirates for cash considerations, but since then he’s posted respective 15-25 and 10-40 seasons in the minors. He’s also turned things around defensively, saving his team runs in each of the past two seasons. He had one bad year at Double-A versus one and a half good ones, plus a highly competent stretch for Triple-A Indianapolis this past season. The former third-round pick even got himself a September cup of coffee, and the Pirates used him down the stretch as a pinch runner and defensive replacement.

Strengths: Broxton broke out and stole 40 bases across the top-three levels of professional baseball in 2015, and he’s got enough power to hit double-digit totals in home runs most seasons. Defensively, he was worth nearly seven runs in 2015 while playing all three positions. Broxton is a veritable four-tool player, and his walk rate has reached the double digits each of the past two seasons to boot. I love guys who can walk and steal bases; that’s a skill combination which can mitigate even the gnarliest of slumps.

Weaknesses: Broxton’s bats are sick with an advanced case of Pedro Cerrano’s Disease. They cannot hit the curveball. Straight ball, they hit it very much. Curveball, bats are afraid. Unfortunately, Broxton is clearly not offering appropriate sacrifices to Jobu — throughout his minor-league career, Keon has never been able to produce a whiff rate better than 25 percent. Those problems are only going to be magnified against the best pitchers on the planet. With only two major-league at-bats to his name — one strikeout — it’s impossible to say that Broxton’s contact issues will not condemn him to the life of “Triple-A Superstar Who Gets Eaten Alive By Top-Flight Pitching.” I hope Milwaukee’s spring training clubhouse has plenty of rum.

Optimistic Major-League Comparison: Yipes. Suffice to say that the Similarity Index does not have kind opinions on the Major League futures of toolsy, contact-averse outfielders. His most highly-rated comparison is a career minor leaguer named Melky Mesa who got 15 at-bats for the Yankees between 2012 and 2013. The top results are a lot of guys with careers like that, and a lot of guys who probably would have had careers like that save for the sorry state of the organization employing them. If you’re arguing in favor of Broxton as a career minor leaguer, this is where you nod smugly. Current San Francisco fifth outfielder Justin Maxwell is next up after Mesa — though it should be noted that Broxton is faster and more patient, while Maxwell has more power. While the algorithm doesn’t point in that direction, I liken Broxton to a poor man’s Milwaukee-era Scott Podsednik. Cast off by multiple other teams, double-digit homers, an absurd amount of steals … only with a batting average way closer to the Mendoza line. For what it’s worth, Maxwell posted a half-time 2.3-win season in 2012 despite hitting .229. As frustrating as his strikeouts will be, he can deliver value working around them.

Outlook: Folks, I want you to properly prepare yourselves. Should he win the center field job, Keon Broxton is going to be a goddamn roller coaster. He’s going to turn doubles into outs, and he’s going to turn walks into doubles. He’s going to remind everybody why, once upon a time, Kevin Goldstein wrote that Broxton “had the best tools in the Midwest League after Mike Trout.” He’s going to face pitchers who rely on their fastball and turn them into burger. Then, he’s going to run into a junkballer and go 0-5 with five ugly strikeouts. He’ll probably have an oh-fer-the-week performance at one point or another. The odds that he hits below .200 for a full season are chillingly short. Just relax, you have to take the good with the bad when it comes to Broxton. The best situation for him might be as a fourth or fifth outfielder off the bench. His defensive versatility and skill can facilitate late double switches, his wheels make him a dangerous pinch runner, and his bat can be maximized by using him as a pinch hitter against hard-throwing relievers.

Kirk Nieuwenhuis – The Low-Key Competent Big-Leaguer

How he was acquired: The New York Mets waived him two days before Christmas, effectively giving up on him for the second time in the 2015 calendar year. How does that happen? He was designated for assignment by the Mets in May, and they sold him to the Angels rather than waive him. Less than a month later, the Angels waived him — he hit .136 in Anaheim — and he was claimed by… you guessed it, the Mets. Who, of course, decided to give him walking papers for Christmas. Since the Brewers had no clear-cut center fielder and an open spot on the 40-man roster, it was a match made in heaven. The whole thing is eerily reminiscent of the events that led to Santa’s Little Helper joining the Simpson family.

What he did last year: He added half a win to his team’s chances, in about half as many plate appearances as Shane Peterson was given. This is a guy who was waived by two different teams. Ladies and gentlemen, your 2015 Milwaukee Brewers!

If you took a flier on Nieuwenhuis in a DraftKings lineup on July 12th, you probably won hundreds of dollars for your foresight.

That breakout performance spearheaded a pretty nice month of July for Nieuwenhuis, who posted a 1.038 OPS as he ascended from “double waiver wire retread” to “starting center fielder, more or less” in the wake of a concurrent slump from Juan Lagares. But even after two teams gave up on him and he still bounced back, the guy still couldn’t catch a break. The Mets traded for Yoenis Cespedes, Formula Juan got the knocks out of his motor, and Nieuwenhuis wouldn’t start another game until the last weekend of the season. During the month of August, the Mets rewarded Nieuwenhuis for his big July by shackling him to the bench for an entire month.

Strengths: Nieuwenhuis has been a steady defender and a streaky hitter throughout parts of four big-league seasons. That July stretch was a great example of how, when he’s on his game, Kirk can play like a borderline star. His defense is always good; Nieuwenhuis has been a net positive in the field to every team he’s played for at every level since the 2010 season, and he can play all three positions well. When he gets his bat going, he can hit for power and average, and he looks like the complete package. And I mean that literally, as well.

Weaknesses: Eventually, Dr. Jekyll turns into Mr. Hyde, and you remember why Nieuwenhuis has yet to hold onto a starting job for more than a month or two here and there. Usually, this transformation can be triggered by something as simple as facing a left-handed pitcher. Nieuwenhuis is a career .149 hitter against southpaws. And when he cools, Nieuwenhuis turns into a frozen offensive vortex. In 2013, he slashed just .189/.278/.337, so it’s a recorded fact that his slumps can last for an entire season or more.

Optimistic Major-League Comparison: Nieuwenhuis’ first page of Similarity Index comparisons are a depressing hodgepodge of Quad-A-type outfielders and benchwarmers, but one name stands out among them — Curtis Granderson, the former Silver Slugger who slid over to take his place in centerfield following the Cespedes acquisition. Maybe the Similarity Index knows about a body-snatching incident that the general public is still in the dark on? Nevertheless, Nieuwenhuis would need to develop into a little more powerful, and a lot more consistent, player in order to hit that plateau. But considering Granderson costs $15 million a year, while Nieuwenhuis was picked off of waivers, the Brewers will surely take those odds and smile if he turns into even 75 percent of the player Granderson is.

Outlook: Quick, what does the following stat line look like to you? 693 plate appearances, 617 at-bats, 17 home runs, 12 stolen bases, four defensive runs saved, a .232/.306/.389 slash line, and 2.4 wins above replacement? If you answered “a full season from a sneaky-good starting centerfielder,” you’re absolutely correct. If you answered “Kirk Nieuwenhuis’ career stat line in the Major Leagues,” you are also correct. It’s easy to assume that he’s a failure of a ballplayer because of his extensive experience with the waiver claims process, but the truth is, he never got a full shot to show what he can do. Nieuwenhuis is probably the favorite to win the job coming into Spring Training, and if that happens, we already know that he’s got the skills to excel.

This is where Shane Peterson becomes significant. The 27-year-old was essentially a minor-league lifer until last season. After being drafted in 2008, he spent several years in the minor leagues before briefly surfacing in 2013 to get eight plate appearances with the A’s. He then proceeded to spend all of 2014 in Triple-A, and it’s not as if he hit the cover off the ball in the minors, either — if he had, he would have gotten a chance to prove himself earlier. His .804 OPS across all levels of the minors is fine but unspectacular, especially when combined with the fact that he was actually more of a left fielder than a center fielder (nearly 2500 innings in left compared to just over 1700 in center).

Thus, there was no real reason to think that Peterson really deserved a shot in the Major Leagues. To be honest, he it’s arguable that he still doesn’t. In 226 plate appearances, he put up just 0.2 WARP. Extrapolated over a full season (600 PAs), Peterson would have been worth just over half a win, which is within the margin of error of being nothing but replacement level.

However, the Brewers clearly found something they liked, at least a little bit. He made his season debut on June 3 and from that point on got into nearly every game. He played both center field and left field, although most of his center field appearances came prior to Santana’s promotion to The Show.

I would not recommend that a team with any hope of contending for a playoff spot employ Peterson. He’s simply too limited a player; he’s not an elite defensive center fielder (if he were, he would be getting playing time there) which means he shouldn’t be used as a defensive replacement, and he’s not a good enough hitter to be a worthy pinch hitter. However, if the Brewers don’t make any additions to the roster, Peterson will likely receive a significant number of plate appearances in 2016.

Earlier this offseason, David Stearns said that Santana is “probably best suited for a corner.” This quote is likely to manifest in specific changes sooner rather than later, as the organization will want to give Santana the best chance to grow and develop as a player, and that should probably come at his natural position. This, though, would mean moving him out of center field, which he occupied for much of August and September.

Brett Phillips and/or Tyrone Taylor aren’t ready to break spring training with the big-league team, though, although they will — hopefully — be ready at some point in 2016. Until that time, though, the Brewers will have fill center field somehow. And, in the interests of more fully developing their actual prospects (like Santana), Shane Peterson appears to be the in-house answer. 

The Brewers would undoubtedly be better off finding someone more qualified to fill the role, but they won’t want to irreparably block the position by signing a free agent to a long-term contract, and it will be hard to find someone worth signing who would be comfortable being just a fill-in. If we take the Brewers’ clear acceptance of the fact that they will not be competing in 2016 to its logical end, it doesn’t really matter who plays center field for the first three months. They won’t be good enough to compete for the playoffs regardless of whether the position is filled by Peterson or someone marginally better. 

While that is probably not the approach the Brewers will want to take on the field or the message they will want their young players to absorb, the fact is that it is likely true. I wouldn’t be surprised if they sign someone who is slightly better than Peterson simply because it is such an obvious spot to upgrade, but they won’t be breaking the bank to fill a spot that hopefully won’t need filling in 2017, and the difference between Peterson and whomever they bring in this winter to replace him will basically be virtually nothing.

Shane Peterson has begun to separate himself as the early in-house front runner. The only other options are Elian Herrera and Logan Schafer — neither of whom has performed well at the major-league level. In 158 plate appearances this season Peterson has hit .277/.342/.355 which equates to a .256 TAv (.260 is league average). While not great, it’s significantly better than what Schafer and Herrera can offer. The problem is that we’re dealing with a very small sample size, so it’s hard to know if we can expect him to continue producing similar numbers.

Peterson does do a few things that have me hopeful he can at least maintain, if not improve, that slash line. He has shown a strong ability to draw walks. This year at the major-league level, he has an 8.9 percent walk rate which is above the league average of 7.5 percent. Over his entire minor-league career he owns an 11.6 percent walk rate.

While his power numbers have disappeared upon his arrival with the Brewers, he fared better in the minors. He has a .427 slugging percentage over eight seasons in the minor leagues. That power manifested itself in doubles more so than in home runs. His career high in home runs is 12. However, last year he reached a career high of 40 doubles, and he has topped 20 doubles in several other seasons.

Although batted-ball data does not seemingly exist for the minor leagues, it should be noted that he currently has an above-average line-drive rate. His doubles power seems to match up with that. This gives some hope that he can maintain an above-average batting average on balls in play (BABIP). He currently has a .375 BABIP but league average is only .298. That .375 is probably unsustainable, and if that drops, so will the rest of his slash line. If he can maintain a strong walk rate and an above-average line-drive rate, it shouldn’t end up hurting him too much. If he can tap back into the modest power numbers he’s shown in the minors, he could start producing better overall despite a lower BABIP.

Another interesting aspect of Peterson’s minor league career are his splits:

Normally, one would expect to see a left-handed hitter struggle against left-handed pitching. This does hold true in 2010 and 2011, but things started to change in subsequent seasons. Not only did Peterson not struggle against southpaws from 2012-2015, he actually showed reverse splits in some seasons. He doesn’t have to crush lefties at the major-league level, but if he can even hit league average against them, it will mean he has a chance to be more than just a platoon player.

It’s not all good news though. I keep mentioning Peterson’s minor league numbers because he hasn’t spent much time at the major-league level. However he is 27 years old and has spent parts of eight seasons in the minors. That’s usually an indication that something was keeping him out of the majors. I have no idea what that might have been, and it could have been something out of his control.

He first reached the Triple-A level in 2011 but didn’t make his major-league debut until 2013. He only received eight major-league plate appearances that year and didn’t play at that level at all in 2014. From 2011 through 2014, the Oakland Athletics had a pretty stacked outfield. At different points in those years, they had Coco Crisp, Josh Reddick, Yoenis Cespedes, Seth Smith, and Brandon Moss, among others. It’s likely that Shane Peterson was just the odd man out. The A’s were also competing in each of those seasons and might not have had the ability to give a rookie a chance to battle through potential growing pains at the major-league level.

The other mark against Peterson is his center field defense. He has spent 149.1 defensive innings in left field earning a +6 DRS (defensive runs saved). That’s really good. In 123 defensive innings in center field he has a -2 DRS. That’s below average. We are again dealing with small sample sizes. This is accentuated when we’re talking about defensive metric. A good sample size for defensive numbers spans multiple seasons. But the early indicators are that Peterson might not be suitable for center field.

With no real alternatives, I suspect Shane Peterson will be given every chance to prove he’s capable of regular starting duties. Given his age, however, fans shouldn’t expect a significant breakout from him. He does possess strong on-base skills and what seems like a good ability to generate line drives. If he can continue to handle lefties, he’s exactly the type of player that might not get much of a chance on a contending team but could succeed with a rebuilding club. Short of that, with all the right-handed hitting outfield options coming up through the minors in the next few years, Peterson’s left-handed bat could provide a strong platoon partner and/or fourth outfielder.

Sandbagged by a slow start and extended time lost to injury, Jonathan Lucroy has struggled through something of a lost year to this point in 2015. A six-win player last season, Lucroy has been marginally better than replacement-level this year, though his pre-injury performance played a big role in that.

Still, manager Craig Counsell has seen fit to slot Lucroy into his customary second spot in the lineup 57 times this season, including last night. And after a Scooter Gennett single to start the inning, Lucroy rewarded Counsell’s faith. He turned on an Ian Kennedy fastball and launched it to deep left. Justin Upton gave a token leap, but it was more for show than anything. The two run blast — just Lucroy’s fourth on the year — was worth .176 WPA, and turned a 1-0 deficit into a 2-1 lead that the Brewers would eventually take home.

BOTTOM PLAY (WPA)

Will Smith was the first Brewer out of the bullpen, and he was greeted to the eighth inning with a double by Melvin Upton. The runner in scoring position with nobody out gave the Padres a good bite at a multi-run inning, and their chances of winning looked better than they had since the second inning.

But Smith came up big, striking out Derek Norris. Upton wasn’t even able to move to third, and the Padres’ chances took a significant blow. The strikeout was worth -.064 WPA — the first of three-consecutive whiffs to leave Upton dying on the vine at second base.

KEY MOMENT

The Brewers’ bats were largely quieted by Ian Kennedy last night, save for a clattering four-run first inning. The Lucroy home run started things off. After that, Ryan Braun put a charge into a ball, but left it in the deepest region of the ballpark for Will Venable to make the play as the wall bore down on him.

But Kennedy wasn’t out of the woods yet. Adam Lind popped a sharp single through the right side of the infield, then Khris Davis delivered a ground-rule double. That put two in scoring position with one out. However, it also brought up the back-end of the Brewers’ lineup.

Shane Peterson has been swinging a relatively hot stick, however, and the new de facto center fielder poked a hard ground ball down the first-base line. It scooted past first baseman Yonder Alonso and into the right field corner for a triple. Davis and Lind both scored, and the lead extended to 4-1.

TREND TO WATCH

With the trades of Carlos Gomez and Gerardo Parra, the Brewers plan was to essentially run the white flag up a pole in center field for the rest of the year. Shane Peterson was once-upon-a-time considered a prospect five years ago, but the 27-year-old has aged into the type of player who gets a one-sentence mention in each year’s BP Annual. He’s hit well enough off the bench, however, to warrant an audition for the starting gig.

Since the deadline, Peterson has manned center field for six starts and has collected at least one hit in five of them. Last night’s two-run triple was his second three-bagger of the series. And while it’s hard to get too excited over such a small sample size, this is exactly how Peterson needs to play if he wants to work his way into the team’s plans beyond the 2015 season.

Prior to 2013, Baseball Prospectus’ Jason Parks wrote about Peterson in the Oakland prospect preview. He noted that Peterson is “not an impact talent, but he can rip a mistake and force a pitcher to work.” Early returns suggest that Peterson has been getting plenty of mistakes to rip. But the major leagues are a harsh ecosystem that adapt to success quickly.

As teams start to gather data on Peterson, it will be interesting to see how things play out. He’ll inevitably need to make adjustments to the inevitable adjustments if he wants to turn his interim starting role into something more.

COMING UP NEXT

The Brewers and Padres have one last tilt scheduled before going their separate ways for the weekend. The good news? After dropping the series opener in embarassing fashion, the Crew have ensured at least a split of the series. The bad news? Matt Garza is scheduled to pitch for Milwaukee. Though it’s been over a month since Garza was last tabbed for ten hits in a start, the right-hander is still posting the worst statistical season of his career by almost any measure.

Opposing him will be Odrisamer Despaigne. The Cuban junk-baller shined during his first three starts of the year in April, holding opponents to a .190 batting average for the month, but since then he’s pitched as you would expect. Tonight should also turn into a showcase for both bullpens, too — in 19 starts for Garza and 16 for Despaigne, each pitcher has gone seven innings or deeper into the start exactly two times. Despaigne has won his last two starts, while Garza has lost his last two.