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	<title>Milwaukee &#187; Shohei Ohtani</title>
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		<title>A Short Defense of Ohtani to the NL</title>
		<link>http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/12/01/a-short-defense-of-ohtani-to-the-nl/</link>
		<comments>http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/12/01/a-short-defense-of-ohtani-to-the-nl/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 01 Dec 2017 22:53:47 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Sean Roberts]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[2018 Brewers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[2018 free agency]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[2018 Offseason]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Brewers analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Brewers free agency analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Shohei Ohtani]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=10685</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Look, I’m fully on the Shohei Ohtani bandwagon. I’ve purchased my seat, fastened my seatbelt, and already asked the wagon attendant about the food and beverage service because I’m going to be here a while. Chances are, you’re intrigued too, as a 23 year-old pitcher signed for almost the league minimum who, according to ZiPS, projects [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Look, I’m fully on the Shohei Ohtani bandwagon. I’ve purchased my seat, fastened my seatbelt, and already asked the wagon attendant about the food and beverage service because I’m going to be here a while. Chances are, you’re intrigued too, as a 23 year-old pitcher signed for almost the league minimum who, <a href="http://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/21387975/just-how-good-shohei-ohtani-anyway">according to ZiPS</a>, projects for a 10.4 K/9 and 3.55 ERA sounds like something the Brewers could use. Or, maybe it’s December and we’re interminably far away from real baseball on the field, so we might as well have something to get excited about, however remote.</p>
<p>The point is, it doesn’t require a lot of convincing to say the Brewers’ pursuit of Ohtani is <a href="http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/04/20/signing-shohei-otani/">a good idea</a>. MLB.com columnist Jon Paul Morosi <a href="http://m.mlb.com/news/article/262688222/what-factors-matter-most-to-shohei-ohtani/">speculated</a> after speaking to team executives that Ohtani is looking to hit and pitch, and that may give the AL an advantage to promise that he’d be able to DH on at least some of his non-pitching days. It’s a logical conclusion, but in a market where almost all teams are going to submit proposals and giving Ohtani their best pitch, maybe National League teams like the Brewers can zig where others zag.</p>
<p>Surely if being a two-way player is important to Ohtani, there’s a solid case to be made that the AL offers him that opportunity. He can pitch and on off-days serve as the DH without significant injury risk in the field. But, and before I say this let me remind you that I purchased in-flight wifi on the Ohtani bandwagon and have downloaded multiple seasons of Black Mirror because I’m here for the long haul&#8230;, <em>what if he’s bad at hitting?</em></p>
<p>How long would an AL team let Ohtani continue to go up and swing the bat if he struggles at the plate? It’s not exactly a stretch to say a 23 year old making his first appearance in the majors would struggle over his first few months in the league. It is not difficult to imagine that if a hitter in the DH spot hit like, well, a pitcher, there would be <em>some point</em> at which a team would abandon that experiment.</p>
<p>Enter our Milwaukee Brewers.</p>
<p>Perhaps the best sales pitch to convince Ohtani to sign doesn’t involve David Stearns laying out what would happen if he’s terrible. I’ll grant you that.</p>
<p>Instead, the Brewers could focus on maximizing Ohtani’s future earnings potential as a two-way player, by letting him know that he’s going to get time to develop and adjust at the plate. He’s going to hit on days when he pitches, no matter how he performs at the plate in the early going. The Brewers had exactly <a href="http://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/sortable/index.php?cid=2495419">one starting pitcher with a TAv over .200</a>, and how many of them were in danger of losing plate appearances on days they pitched? None!</p>
<p>Then, you would tell Ohtani, he’ll have every chance to get low-leverage plate appearances as he learns MLB pitchers and the strike zone as a batter. Once he’s ready he’ll have the chance to pinch-hit, and once he’s comfortable with that, you’ll look to make him a bench regular. All while still hitting every day he’s on the mound.</p>
<p>This alleviates the problem of guaranteeing plate appearances, which AL teams that are proposing a DH role are almost certainly committing themselves to for an unknown amount of time. It also sells Ohtani on the idea that the team is looking for his best opportunity to succeed and grow and develop in the majors, and then maximize his earnings potential as a two-way player down the road.</p>
<p>It’s a risky strategy to be sure, and Ohtani may very well just be looking for the greatest number of plate appearances he can get or be reasonably guaranteed. But the Brewers and other NL teams shouldn’t overlook the possibility of selling what sets their league and teams apart, and that includes the lowered expectations of a pitcher hitting.</p>
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		<title>The Waiting Game</title>
		<link>http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/11/30/the-waiting-game/</link>
		<comments>http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/11/30/the-waiting-game/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 30 Nov 2017 15:29:57 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Dylan Svoboda]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[2018 Offseason]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[2018 Offseason analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Giancarlo Stanton]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Shohei Ohtani]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=10668</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[This offseason has been slow to start for the Milwaukee Brewers. Aside from a few inconsequential minor-league moves, which only have implications for the bottom rungs of the team’s 40-man roster, David Stearns and company have been eerily quiet. The rest of Major League Baseball, for that matter, has been quiet as well, at least [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>This offseason has been slow to start for the Milwaukee Brewers. Aside from a few inconsequential minor-league moves, which only have implications for the bottom rungs of the team’s 40-man roster, David Stearns and company have been eerily quiet. The rest of Major League Baseball, for that matter, has been quiet as well, at least as far as making a major move goes.</p>
<p>Despite this uncharacteristic inactivity from teams across the league, the rumor mill is spinning. The destinations of the two biggest game changers presumed to be moved, Shohei Ohtani and Giancarlo Stanton, has yet to be determined.</p>
<p>The uncertainty surrounding Ohtani and Stanton has created a gridlock throughout the league. Even though the Brewers are not rumored to be on the forefront for either player, the ripples that these two huge pieces create leaves the team stuck playing the waiting game.</p>
<p>All 30 teams are pitching themselves to Ohtani. No team can offer him more than $3.6 million, and Ohtani’s camp has all but ruled out the importance of money in his decision. In other words, every team has hope. Not only are the Brewers preparing their pitch for the Japanese superstar, in hopes he will pick the beautiful city of Milwaukee, but so are the 29 other clubs. Rather than focusing their attention on what, in a normal offseason, would be free agency and the trade market, teams are left dreaming on Ohtani.</p>
<p>Ohtani’s unique skill set can also completely transform the roster of whichever team he chooses. Teams are going to be reluctant to make a move before Ohtani’s decision due to simple roster dynamics. If Ohtani can be your ace reliever/starting left fielder three or four days a week, then there is no reason to fill those holes before Ohtani makes his much-anticipated decision.</p>
<p>Even if the Brewers were told they had no shot at Ohtani, which they haven’t been told, the gridlock would continue. Free agent pitchers such as Jake Arrieta and Yu Darvish would be foolish to sign before the Ohtani decision. Whichever teams lose out will likely immediately turn their attention to frontline free agents such as Arrieta and Darvish. We can assume the Brewers are in serious talks with both Arrieta and Darvish, and yet the gridlock would continue due to the Ohtani factor.</p>
<p>On top of Ohtani’s presence, is what seems to be an inevitable Giancarlo Stanton trade. The four teams rumored to be in on Stanton, the Los Angeles Dodgers, San Francisco Giants, Boston Red Sox, and St. Louis Cardinals, are some of the largest markets in the league. All four figure to be a big part of the free agent market if they lose out on Stanton.</p>
<p>Stanton’s monstrous contract would deem whichever team acquires him all but finished as far as the free agent market goes. Because these four teams are dreaming on Stanton, they are staying out of free agency until the Miami Marlins finally make a move. By essentially taking these four big-market teams out of free agency until Stanton is moved, free agents are left waiting to see who the losers are so they can join the market.</p>
<p>The Brewers are not exactly in the market for Stanton either. But players that they are in the market for, possibly Darvish or Arrieta, are going to wait to see if big-market teams, such as the Dodgers or Giants, join the hunt for big-name pitchers in lieu of losing out on Stanton.</p>
<p>The Brewers are stuck in the middle. They are no longer rebuilding. They figure to be a major player in this offseasons activity. Despite their position, they are essentially uninvolved with Ohtani and Stanton, which in turn leaves them out of any early activity.</p>
<p>Once these two important dominos fall, the logjam should clear for teams like the Brewers to step in. Free agents don’t normally prefer to go into January, and definitely not February, without a home. Moves are going to be made quickly. Hopefully, a month or two from now, we’ll be looking back on this offseason as one of the most active offseasons in recent Brewer history.</p>
<hr />
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>Photo Credit: Jason Vinlove, USAToday Sports Images</p>
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