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		<title>Minor League Context: Arms</title>
		<link>http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/05/13/minor-league-context-arms/</link>
		<comments>http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/05/13/minor-league-context-arms/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 13 May 2017 14:13:33 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Nicholas Zettel]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Brandon Woodruff]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bubba Derby]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Forrest Snow]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jorge Lopez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Luis Ortiz]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Matt Ramsey]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Nick Ramirez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Paolo Espino]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Taylor Scott]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Trey Supak]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=8874</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Following the original April 25 Minor League Context post, and yesterday&#8217;s note on the batting environments for Brewers affiliates, it is time to look into the environments faced by system arms. I looked at pitchers with 13.0+ innings pitched thus far, which produced a smaller batch of pitchers than bats. Yet, many of the environmental [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Following the original April 25 Minor League Context post, and yesterday&#8217;s note on the batting environments for Brewers affiliates, it is time to look into the environments faced by system arms. I looked at pitchers with 13.0+ innings pitched thus far, which produced a smaller batch of pitchers than bats. Yet, many of the environmental factors hold across the diamond: the top prospects in Colorado Springs are (mostly) facing easy competition, Carolina and Biloxi are both facing rather tough environments and competition, and the Midwest League is split.</p>
<p>Let&#8217;s have a look at where the system stood for the previous update:</p>
<table border="" width="" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr bgcolor="#EDF1F3">
<th align="center">Affiliate (Players)</th>
<th align="center">Median oppOPS</th>
<th align="center">Median Age</th>
<th align="center">Brewers Park Factor</th>
<th align="center">Easy Competition?</th>
<th align="center">Tough Competition?</th>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">AAA Pacific Coast (228)</td>
<td align="center">.736</td>
<td align="center">27</td>
<td align="center">125</td>
<td align="center">Woodruff / Garza / Cravy / Suter</td>
<td align="center">Wang / Archer / Burgos/ Scahill/ Hader</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">AA Southern (130)</td>
<td align="center">.650</td>
<td align="center">24</td>
<td align="center">97</td>
<td align="center">Jungmann / Ventura</td>
<td align="center">Gainey / Derby / Snow / Ramirez / Lopez</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">Advanced A Carolina (105)</td>
<td align="center">.695</td>
<td align="center">23</td>
<td align="center">96</td>
<td align="center">No One</td>
<td align="center">Everyone</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">A Midwest (211)</td>
<td align="center">.675</td>
<td align="center">22</td>
<td align="center">109</td>
<td align="center">Myers / Drossner / Garza</td>
<td align="center">Desguin / Roegner / Jankins / Brown / Supak</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">Players With &gt;4.0 IP</td>
<td align="center"></td>
<td align="center"></td>
<td align="center"></td>
<td align="center"></td>
<td align="center"></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>Now, here&#8217;s the competition through May 12:</p>
<table border="" width="" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr bgcolor="#EDF1F3">
<th align="center">Brewers Affiliates (Arms)</th>
<th align="center">13+ IP</th>
<th align="center">Median oppOPS</th>
<th align="center">Park (Brewers)</th>
<th align="center">Tough Competition?</th>
<th align="center">Easy Competition?</th>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">Pacific Coast (AAA)</td>
<td align="center">157</td>
<td align="center">.751</td>
<td align="center">101 (118)</td>
<td align="center">Wang</td>
<td align="center">Cravy / Woodruff / Kohlscheen / Suter</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">Southern (AA)</td>
<td align="center">105</td>
<td align="center">.678</td>
<td align="center">95 (94)</td>
<td align="center">Almost Everyone</td>
<td align="center">Jungmann / Ventura</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">Carolina (A+)</td>
<td align="center">102</td>
<td align="center">.7155</td>
<td align="center">95 (101)</td>
<td align="center">Everyone</td>
<td align="center">No One</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">Midwest (A)</td>
<td align="center">163</td>
<td align="center">.683</td>
<td align="center">101 (112)</td>
<td align="center">Sanchez / Supak / Roegner / Desguin</td>
<td align="center">Webb / Myers</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>There are a few things worth noting here:</p>
<ul>
<li>Brandon Woodruff is whipping the Pacific Coast League, but he&#8217;s faced one of the easiest opposing OPS among regular pitchers. It is still worth digging into Woodruff&#8217;s solidly above average strikeout and walk rates, and also emphasizing that Woodruff has maintained his 48 percent groundball: 52 percent flyball ratios established at Class-AA Biloxi last season. Everyone is excited to see Woodruff take the next step to Milwaukee, but as with Lewis Brinson, take that shiny surface statistical performance with a grain of salt and expect a slightly more average MLB role.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>On the contrary, what role can one present for age-30 phenom Paolo Espino? In terms of scouting stuff, no one would place Espino ahead of Woodruff. Espino seems like a pitchability-supreme guy. And so he is, outpitching Brewers fans&#8217; current favorite pitching prospect while facing significantly tougher opponents (.756 oppOPS to Woodruff&#8217;s .724 mark). With Junior Guerra returning from the disabled list, and a series of rotating improvements among Brewers starters, Espino may find it easiest to sneak into an MLB bullpen role. But, handling a tough PCL does lead one to wonder whether Espino could start; we&#8217;ll split the difference and call him a pitchability swingman for 2017.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>We await scouting updates on Trey Supak, but as recently featured on BPMilwaukee, the young righty is maximizing his time in the Midwest League. Supak is posting the best strikeout-to-walk ratio among Wisconsin starters. For the future, watch his flyball rate (currently 66 percent) and look for scouting updates on Supak&#8217;s third pitch.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Might we praise the 19-16 Biloxi Shuckers, those Shuckers outplaying a sub-.500 run differential in an extremely tough environment? The Shuckers, the gem of the Brewers system breakout in 2015, are the forgotten affiliate in 2017, as the in-between prospects from last year&#8217;s forgettable Brevard County club and the remainder of 40-man roster depth and advanced minors veterans forge a supreme sub-hype crew. Shuckers bullpen leaders Matt Ramsey, Nick Ramirez, Taylor Scott, Forrest Snow, and Bubba Derby have a lot to say about that, with a cumulative 102.3 IP, 104 K / 46 BB / 7 HR (0.20 Fielding Independent Pitching ratio), and 32 runs allowed (2.82 runs average against an approximate 3.71 park-adjusted run environment, good for 10 runs prevented).</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>And yet they win, lead by Jorge Lopez and Luis Ortiz. Lopez and Ortiz have both faced notably tougher-than-median opponents, and within this duo Ortiz has faced even significantly tougher opponents still. But no sweat, as the median-age Lopez and very-young Ortiz are posting strong K:BB ratios. From here out, keep an eye on the flyballs, as both righties have flyball rates above 60 percent; this figure may fly in the suppressed environment of Biloxi, but could be very problematic at Miller Park (currently playing a 102 pitching park factor over thee years, according to Baseball Reference).</li>
</ul>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>Profiling AFL Arms</title>
		<link>http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/09/02/profiling-afl-arms/</link>
		<comments>http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/09/02/profiling-afl-arms/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 02 Sep 2016 14:59:36 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Kyle Lesniewski]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Minor Leagues]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Josh Uhen]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Taylor Scott]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tyler Spurlin]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=6474</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[This week began what amounts to Christmas in summer for baseball fans, as the prospect analysis season steps into advanced mode. Not only are clubs expanding their rosters at the MLB level, but they are also sending top prospects to the Arizona Fall League, and soon beginning instructional leagues as well. Looking at AFL prospects [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>This week began what amounts to Christmas in summer for baseball fans, as the prospect analysis season steps into advanced mode. Not only are clubs expanding their rosters at the MLB level, but they are also sending top prospects to the Arizona Fall League, and soon beginning instructional leagues as well. Looking at AFL prospects is one way to think about who is on each organization&#8217;s mind for an additional look, or perhaps defining a future role.</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Brewers AFL players &#8211; RHP Josh Uhen, RHP Tyler Spurlin, RHP Tayler Scott, OF Brett Phillips, C Jacob Nottingham, and SS Isan Diaz</p>
<p>&mdash; Brewers Player Dev (@BrewersPD) <a href="https://twitter.com/BrewersPD/status/771073569384194049">August 31, 2016</a></p></blockquote>
<p>On Wednesday, the Brewers announced their first wave of Arizona Fall League participants. There is <a href="http://m.brewers.mlb.com/news/article/198796376/top-prospects-to-represent-brewers-in-afl/">one additional pitcher to be announced</a>. While the club selected three of their top positional prospects, the pitchers selected may be unknowns even to many BaseballProspectus regulars. Taylor Scott, Tyler Spurlin, and Josh Uhen will serve as Brewers arms in Arizona, perhaps representing a similar leap out of nowhere as righty Jacob Barnes in 2015. So, it is time to profile these righties and look at their 2016 performances in the Brewers system. </p>
<p><strong>RHP Josh Uhen</strong><br />
Local product Josh Uhen was one of the state&#8217;s top pitchers at Oshkosh North High School as a prep, but went undrafted in 2010 and began his collegiate career at UW-Milwaukee by blowing out his elbow in his first appearance. The right hander moved to the bullpen after missing nearly a year recovering from Tommy John surgery, and  it is a role he has thrived in since. Even after throwing less than 40 collegiate innings, Bruce Seid thought enough of Uhen to tab him in the fifth round of the 2013 MLB Draft.</p>
<table width="100%" border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0">
<tr bgcolor="#EDF1F3">
<th align="center">2016 Uhen A+</th>
<th align="center">Age</th>
<th align="center">FIP</th>
<th align="center">opposingOPS</th>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">Josh Uhen</td>
<td align="center">24</td>
<td align="center">3.96</td>
<td align="center">.684</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">FSL Median (20+ IP)</td>
<td align="center">23</td>
<td align="center">3.46</td>
<td align="center">.675</td>
</tr>
</table>
<p>To Seid&#8217;s credit, Uhen certainly presents an enticing package. Nick J. Faleris of Baseball Prosectus <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=18702" target="_blank">scouted Uhen&#8217;s pro day</a> a few years ago. Uhen was sitting in the 87-89 MPH range as a prep. Once he returned to the mound following his elbow surgery, that four-seamer had ratcheted up to the 96-97 MPH range. Faleris additionally describes a &#8220;lively&#8221; two-seam fastball that repeatedly hit 95 MPH. The secondaries are a slider that sits 80-81 MPH, which Uhen was still working on getting a feel for at that time, as well as a changeup that featured a &#8220;10-12 MPH velocity differential from his fastballs,&#8221; some late tumbling action, and decent arm speed deception.</p>
<iframe src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/PMjRoyVZsZ0" width="560" height="315" frameborder="0" ></iframe>
<p>A four-pitch mix and a build like Uhen&#8217;s (6&#8217;4&#8243; and 185 lbs) would normally be the profile one would look for in a potential starter. Given his injury history and the fact that he&#8217;s never thrown more than 55.3 innings in a season (this year), it is likely that his role remains in the bullpen going forward.</p>
<p><em>Florida State League Note:</em> Uhen was slightly older than league median, and also faced tougher competition, which may help to explain his below median FIP. Uhen struck out 20.9 percent of batters faced (versus 8.9 percent walks), and recorded a 51 percent groundball rate. </p>
<p><strong>RHP Tayler Scott</strong><br />
The Cubs were actually the organization that gave Tayler Scott his start in professional ball, making the Johannesburg, South Africa native their fifth-round pick back in 2011 and <a href="http://www.chicagonow.com/cubs-den/2011/08/cubs-sign-5th-rounder-tayler-scott/" target="_blank">signing him to an over-slot bonus</a> to convince him to forego his commitment to Arizona. At that time he was considered a raw project (he didn&#8217;t take up the game until moving to Arizona at age 16), but one with a projectable body and considerable upside.</p>
<table width="100%" border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0">
<tr bgcolor="#EDF1F3">
<th align="center">2016 Scott AA</th>
<th align="center">Age</th>
<th align="center">FIP</th>
<th align="center">opposingOPS</th>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">Taylor Scott</td>
<td align="center">24</td>
<td align="center">5.06</td>
<td align="center">.683</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">Southern Median (20+ IP)</td>
<td align="center">24</td>
<td align="center">3.585</td>
<td align="center">.680</td>
</tr>
</table>
<p>Unfortunately for Chicago, Scott didn&#8217;t seem to progress as hoped. He was throwing in the 90-93 MPH range upon being drafted, but by the time <a href="http://www.shadowsofwrigley.com/2013/04/24/tayler-scotts-april-20th-start-video-included/"><em>In the Shadows of Wrigley</em> reported</a> on him in 2013 he had already lost a few ticks; his heater was down to the 87-90 MPH range. However, it is a moving fastball at least with some sinking and tailing action. Scott&#8217;s changeup is his best offering in this scout&#8217;s eyes, featuring a similar tailing action to his fastball but with considerable vertical drop as it approaches the plate. The righty has good feel for the change, and his arm action was identical to that of his fastball, but the velocity difference of only 4-7 MPH leaves a little something to be desired. Scott also offered a glimpse at a curveball during the outing, though he didn&#8217;t have great feel for the pitch. It&#8217;s in that 79-80 MPH range with solid two-plane movement.</p>
<iframe src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/h2ftVDbDV-I" width="560" height="315" frameborder="0" ></iframe>
<p>The scout praised Scott&#8217;s fastball command but indicated that the control of his secondaries needed refinement. He throws from a low three-quarters arm slot with a big leg kick, but repeats his delivery well. His shallow release point, in that scout&#8217;s opinion, could be an issue in the future given his lack of premium velocity.</p>
<p>Scott began his career as a starter before moving to the bullpen following the 2014 season. He <a href="http://www.scout.com/mlb/cubs/story/1657052-cubs-april-1-notebook" target="_blank">was released</a> by the Cubs at the beginning of this season after struggling in AA last year. Thanks to some eye-popping numbers in the independent American Association, however, he was able to catch the attention of a Brewers scout. In 28.7 innings with the Sioux City Explorers, Scott worked to a 1.88 ERA with a 32:6 K/BB ratio. The Brewers <a href="http://www.milb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20160706&amp;content_id=188336554&amp;fext=.jsp&amp;vkey=recap" target="_blank">signed the 24 year old in early July</a>, and he has been working exclusively out of the Biloxi bullpen since then.</p>
<p><em>Southern League Note:</em> Scott posted a relatively poor FIP in the Southern League. However, the righty was of median age and faced slightly tougher than median competition. Scott produced a 51 percent groundball rate and also struck out 19.6 percent of batters faced (12.7 walk rate). </p>
<p><strong>RHP Tyler Spurlin</strong><br />
25 year old Tyler Spurlin isn&#8217;t quite as easy to find in the scouting reports, as the Brewers signed the undrafted free agent out of Rice in 2013. As a prep, Jim Callis scouted Spurlin for <a href="http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/draft/draft-preview/2009/268272.html" target="_blank">Baseball America</a>, noting that he featured a fastball in the 88-91 MPH range that could touch 93. He noted that Spurlin had an odd hitch where he would &#8220;cup&#8221; the ball in the back of his delivery. The righty came out of high school as a two-way player and played both ways at Rice, but even as a prep player Callis pegged his future to be on the mound.</p>
<table width="100%" border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0">
<tr bgcolor="#EDF1F3">
<th align="center">2016 Spurlin AA</th>
<th align="center">Age</th>
<th align="center">FIP</th>
<th align="center">opposingOPS</th>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">Tyler Spurlin</td>
<td align="center">25</td>
<td align="center">3.43</td>
<td align="center">.674</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">Southern Median (20+ IP)</td>
<td align="center">24</td>
<td align="center">3.585</td>
<td align="center">.680</td>
</tr>
</table>
<p>Spurlin came to Rice throwing both a slider and curveball, but at that time the pitching coach asked him to combine the two pitches to <a href="http://cstv.collegesports.com/mt5.2/mt-search.cgi?search=baseball&amp;__mode=tag&amp;IncludeBlogs=18&amp;limit=20&amp;page=4" target="_blank">reportedly positive results</a>. He finished his college career with just 26.0 IP in 22 appearances and an uninspiring 17:15 K/BB ratio, so it&#8217;s probably not very surprising that he didn&#8217;t get selected when he came out for the draft after graduation. The righty missed the entire 2012 season after being injured in spring practice, and his college coach <a href="http://www.riceowls.com/sports/m-basebl/mtt/spurlin_tyler00.html" target="_blank">has been quoted</a> as saying <strong>&#8220;Tyler has been great for us and he remains very projectable. He just needs to stay healthy.&#8221; </strong>Spurlin has spent at least one stint on the seven day minor league disabled list in each of the past three seasons.</p>
<p><em>Southern League Note:</em> Spurlin was slightly older than median age and also faced relatively weak competition, but also posted a notably better than median FIP. Spurlin struck out 20.3 percent of batters faced (11.9 walk rate), and a 72 percent groundball rate helped the righty allow 0 homers. </p>
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