I first profiled Jankins for BP Milwaukee last summer, towards the end of his breakout campaign in Appleton with the Timber Rattlers. In his first full season as a professional, the now soon-to-be 23 year old compiled a 3.62 ERA and a sterling 55 DRA- across 141.2 innings, accompanied by a 121:32 K/BB ratio and 55 percent ground ball rate. The organization was so taken with his performance that the decision was made to skip Jankins over the Carolina League entirely and assign him straight to the starting rotation in Double-A Biloxi to start the 2018 season. So far, Jankins hasn’t appeared overwhelmed by the significant jump in competition; it’s been quite the opposite, in fact. After his most recent start on Wednesday, a performance of 6.3 shutout innings in a win against the Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp, Jankins owns a 2.03 ERA through an even 31.0 innings with 26 punchouts against just seven free passes. Pitching wins don’t mean much, especially at the minor league level, but according to Shuckers’ broadcaster Garrett Greene, Jankins is the first hurler in team history to record a victory in his each of his first five starts.

I recently had the opportunity to catch up with Thomas Jankins about his career so far and what the future may hold:

Kyle Lesniewski: You were chosen by Milwaukee in the 13th round out of Quinnipiac University in 2016. Can you describe what that process was like?

Thomas Jankins: Getting drafted in 2016 was a dream come true for me. It was something that I had set as a legitimate goal for myself when I entered college and to achieve it was a special feeling. I was very fortunate to have such great teammates and coaches around me during my time at Quinnipiac, and I was able to develop my skills to a point where I felt like I was ready to compete at the next level. The Brewers were certainly among the teams that were interested at the time, so when they called in the 13th round it wasn’t a huge surprise. If I could go back and redo the process I might have changed my expectations for the draft so that I could have enjoyed the experience a little more. I honestly thought I was going to get picked earlier, but I think it was a humbling and motivating experience for me to go through. In the end, hearing your name called in any round means that you are going to get an opportunity and that’s all you can ever ask for. The only thing that went into my decision to forgo my senior year was that I promised my parents that I would eventually finish my degree. Thankfully, with the help of the Brewers, I have been able to finish my Bachelor’s degree in my first two off seasons which I’m extremely proud of.

KL: How has the transition to pro ball gone? What’s life like for a minor leaguer drafted in the later rounds?

TJ: The transition has certainly been one that has been filled with constant adjustments. From being a person that hadn’t left New England much in my life to living and playing in new places like Montana, Wisconsin, Arizona and Mississippi there were times early on where it felt a little overwhelming. I’m very lucky to have a great support system in family and friends who have helped me along the way and I’ve also learned to embrace the constant changes that most minor leaguers face. As far as being a later round draft pick, I try not to let that define me as a player. The Brewers are a tremendous organization in the amount of resources they dedicate to us as players, and I try to take advantage of that as much as I can. They also have shown that they are less concerned with what round you were picked in once you step foot between the lines, which is encouraging to us players because we understand it’s up to us to perform and advance our own careers.

KL: You’re from a cold weather climate and your school has produced only one major leaguer. Because of that, some scouting outlets saw you as sort of a “raw” prospect with untapped upside that could be unlocked in the pro ranks. What adjustments/improvements has the organization encouraged you to make since coming to Milwaukee?

TJ: I’m not sure “raw” would be the best way I would describe myself at the time but there were certainly a number of improvements in my game that had to be made. Consistency was a major theme in my first season as I had to learn what it meant to prepare at the professional level. Cleaning up my delivery, especially out of the stretch was a step I took in that first year to have more consistent stuff every time I took the mound. I think my second season was about me establishing my identity as a pitcher, there were certainly some bumps and bruises along the way but there were also many valuable lessons learned. I believe moving forward, I have a much better understanding of the player I have to become to be successful at the major league level.

KL: You were successful last season in Appleton, and the Brewers took the unconventional step of skipping you over Carolina and assigned you straight to Double-A in Biloxi. How did that conversation go, were you surprised by the assignment? Does it feel like a vote of confidence from the organization?

TJ: I came into spring training this year trying not to have any expectation of where I would be playing this season. In the past, I have let things like team assignments that are outside of my control have too much of an effect on my performance and this year I was trying to simplify my approach. I just knew that I was going to compete and train as hard as I could to give myself the best opportunity to make a team. When I learned I was assigned to Biloxi, I wouldn’t say I was surprised because I expect a lot out of myself but I knew that it was up to me to show that it wasn’t a mistake. The organization showed that they believed in me to handle it and I believed I could as well, it was just about using my preparation and knowledge from previous seasons as tools to help me make the jump.

KL: Can you provide a self scouting report? How do you like to attack hitters?

TJ: I would describe myself as pretty typical sinker ball pitcher. My velocity is not overwhelming so I have to rely on movement and control to manipulate hitters into swinging at the pitches I want them too. I think I am fairly aggressive in the way I attack hitters which often leads to early count contact, I’m a big believer in the 3 pitches or less mindset on the mound. My goal every game is to try and get into the 7th inning. I try to induce as many ground balls as I can using my sinker, and use my changeup and slider as more swing and miss type pitches. When my slider is on, I think it is my best pitch and hopefully the consistency with it continues to improve. Currently, I am working on using a cutter and hopefully that can become a major weapon for me down the road.

KL: What are your goals for this season and for your career? What strengths will carry Thomas Jankins to the major leagues?

TJ: My goals for the season are to develop a consistent 4th pitch that I can use while still making improvements on my other 3 offerings. Every year I also strive to lead the team in innings. I hope to continue to mature in how I handle both success and failure as I think I have a better understanding of the pacing of a full season after going through my first one last year. My goal for my career is to be a starting pitcher at the major league level, I certainly have a long way to go in my development but I believe I have what it takes to get there someday. I think one of my biggest strengths is self-awareness, I have a good grasp on the things that make me successful on the mound and also understand the many things I need to improve on. If I can continue to polish up the things I struggle with while maintaining who I am, I think that’s a pretty good recipe for success.

This year, things look different in the minors. The Brewers dropped 16 spots in the Baseball Prospectus organizational rankings, due as much to the underperformance of top draft picks (Trent Grisham, Corey Ray) as the big Christian Yelich trade (which sent away three of the highest ceiling prospects in the system, even if they were risky ones). Looking through the affiliated clubs’ opening day rosters, one can get the feeling that the system is less exciting than the 2016 and 2017 versions; or, if the system remains exciting, it’s exciting because of some of the very raw, underdeveloped talent in the club’s low minor affiliates, rather than the advanced affiliated prospects. Nevertheless, extremes abound for this system, as the Brewers are also using their most advanced affiliates to store MLB 40-man roster players (prospect or not).

Below is a list of the 2018 Top 10 Brewers Baseball Prospectus prospects, as well as eleven additional prospects that were covered in the list, plus Jordan Yamamoto (who was also included in the Yelich trade package). I’ve assembled their 2018 age, assignment, as well as the Overall Future Potential role and likely projection for each player (where available). In the case of the eleven additional prospects, only one role or outlook was typically provided by the scouting team, whereas a “high percentile” and “likely outcome” were both provided for the Top 10.

A few quick notes:

• Yesterday, Brewers beat reported Adam McCalvy reported that Keston Hiura will begin the season as a DH due to some elbow soreness experienced while throwing during camp. This is one key reason that fans need to slow the brakes on Hiura Hype, as the DH-risk remains real, and the highly regarded second base prospect really is not a professional second baseman yet; until that is proved otherwise, one also has to wonder if he will end up in left field or as a DH.

• Anchored by Corey Ray and Trent Grisham, the Double-A Biloxi outfield might have the best bounceback tandem in the system. It’s so easy to find critiques with each player’s development thus far, and yet here we are with both players working a level away from the MLB at very young ages. If either play puts things together at this level, MLB role projections could quickly come into focus.

• Tristen Lutz and Carlos Herrera both debut in full season ball, making A Wisconsin one of the most exciting teams in the system. That team is loaded with sleepers, as well as some prospects like Lutz and Herrera who are looking to define that top percentile MLB role and the risk associated with it.

Of course, this list does not even cover 10 percent of the Brewers system, so while assembled minor league assignments, I collected ten of my favorite “deep system” prospect picks. Here I picked one arm and one bat from each level:

A few quick notes on my favorites:

• I will continue to write about Demi Orimoloye as long as he stands outside of typical top prospect debates, because in terms of having tools and waiting to hone the baseball aspect of the game, there’s probably not a higher return in the system (of true extreme risk players) than Orimoloye putting it all together. Watching his second turn at Wisconsin could demonstrate how likely this type of scenario may be, or how risky Orimoloye really will be.

• I picked a few long development and “old” guys in the system because there are simply some very interesting underlying performances (Daniel Brown, Nelson Hernandez) and tools (Luis Aviles) in some of these minor league grinders. Hernandez and Aviles have not necessarily had easy and clear development paths the last few years, but Hernandez is making his full season debut at a reasonable age overall, and Aviles has always simply been about whether the bat comes around. In 2016, the glove was the same story with Aviles in midseason Wisconsin Timber Rattlers coverage, so there’s a question about how long it’s worth hammering home this scouting line, but here we are with another chance for Aviles to prove himself.

• In contrast, it is worth emphasizing that an extremely athletic, ex-Top 10 Prospect like Tyrone Taylor remains (very) young for Triple-A, and is now working a level removed from the MLB. While there are undoubtedly reasons that Taylor’s prospect star has fallen, the recent identification of mechanical adjustments to unleash MLB stars should underscore that where talented, athletic players work to fix their approach, even a seemingly pedestrian profile can emerge as a productive MLB player. Taylor has the athleticism to work as an MLB depth outfielder, now it is worth seeing whether the bat follows at the most advanced level.

• The aggressive Thomas Jankins assignment is probably my favorite for the 2018 season. At BP Milwaukee last season, Kyle Lesniewski profiled Jankins as one of a handful of intriguing late round arms in the Brewers system. While Jankins might not have the “big stuff” profile of a Trey Supak to dream on, the righty has a command profile that matches some of the analytic trends emerging in the Brewers big league rotation (Zach Davies) and offseason acquisitions (Wade Miley).

Finally, throughout the minor league season, remember to support minor league players in their quest for a living wage, and continue to discuss alternatives to the current format of minor league compensation upheld by Major League Baseball. Prospects deserve transparent press coverage and support from fans, and part of this support should include transparency about MLB efforts to openly suppress pay of their affiliated professional players. It is worth emphasizing that the MLB is codifying their position of exploiting minor league players at a time of great wealth for the sport, as evidenced by the extra $50 million MLB Advanced Media revenue payment paid to every team; in an elite revenue industry, why are many minor league players struggling to earn even $7,000 a year for their professional efforts?

This is a fascinating development for a franchise that has not been known for pitching, and fans and analysts may have to get used to this scenario: the arms are ahead of the bats across the system. In 2017, while consecutive first round draft picks Corey Ray and Trent Clark backpedaled, pop-up pitcher Corbin Burnes posted a phenomenal year and saw his stuff tick ahead after noted mechanical adjustments in his delivery. But the pitching development hardly ends with Burnes, who exemplifies the current stock of middle-to-back end rotation starting pitching prospects that grade out as thoroughly solid quality within that role; reports cooled on Cody Ponce, but he had a ho hum innings building season, as did Luis Ortiz at Class-AA; Freddy Peralta was chasing Burnes for most impactful pitching season within the minors; his trademate Carlos Herrera took a big step forward in full season ball; and behind these quality depth options, Trey Supak, Josh Pennington, and others still had quite fine seasons.

Related Reading:
2017 Brewers Minors: Bats

There is a type of depth with these pitchers that simply cannot be matched by the current bats in the Brewers system. Currently, the bats feature multiple risk factors, especially in terms of developing hit tools. This profile not only suits graduates Lewis Brinson and Brett Phillips, but also the aforementioned Clark and Ray, among others. Perhaps the selection of Keston Hiura in the 2017 draft is most important to counteract this risky trend, although Hiura simply reapplies that risk in a different area of the game. If the Brewers bats currently fit the profile of “could be big tools impact” / “might not make it out of a bench role,” the arms are quite the opposite, with no true top-end pitching prospect in the system. It’s a beautiful thing: not one ace. But among those non-aces, perhaps a number of starters that could prove as “boring” as Zach Davies, or have question marks answered like Chase Anderson or even Jimmy Nelson.

One gets the sense that these Brewers arms could be plugged in the rotation any which way, which should be considered an exciting affair given the recent hype of pitching coach Derek Johnson’s blank-slate, situational-personal coaching approach. It should also be mentioned that in an era of velocity, the top Milwaukee arms are hardly flamethrowers, which adds an interesting question about whether the Brewers are exploiting undervalued aspects of the game (I know that’s a played out question by now, but still…), or simply whether the Brewers have found a profile of arm that fits their system or organizational approach.

To accompany the statistical index of 2017 Brewers minor league bats, I have prepared an index of statistics for the 2017 arms in the affiliated ranks. To provide basic consistency with the survey range for the bats, I translated the initial scale of 50 batting PA to 16.7 pitching IP for assessing seasons. This largely produced a similar number of players across leagues, which also means that league median statistic figures should have a solid range to reflect statistical context.

I choose the method of indexing statistics because it is relatively straightforward in terms of user interface: every metric can be measured against a “constant” or comparison variable, such as “Player Total Average (TAv)” versus “League TAv.” In an index, 1.00 can basically be read as “average,” for it means that a player’s metric perfectly matches the comparison metric. For example, righty Eric Hanhold played his age-23 season at Class-Advanced A Carolina, where the median age was also 23; his index is therefore 1.00 for that statistic.

It should be noted that I calculated the index in a different way for pitching prospects in order to remain consistent with the batting index. This means that an overall index greater than 1.00 suggests that a pitcher’s OPS-allowed was better than the average contextual indicators in the league, and that an index below 1.00 means that pitcher was below average given the context of the league. In order to provide additional context to an index that only weighs age, park factor, and opposing OPS alongside OPS-allowed, I added a Deserved Run Average (DRA) index so that readers can compare outcomes and reflect on the validity of the OPS-allowed index.

This index is slightly different than the batting index, since there are different OPS values for pitchers and their opponents (for example, a batter is facing tougher opposition if the opposing OPS is lower; for pitchers, tougher opposition means higher OPS from opponents). For this reason:

+1.00 Age Index means “younger” than league average age.

+1.00 oppOPS Index means better than average opponents (compared to the league).

+1.00 Park Index means hitter’s park.

This index should not be read as a significant, be-all / end-all assessment of pitching performance. Instead, it should be read alongside other statistics and scouting reports as an indicator of the context in which the pitcher performed, as well as how their advanced performance (via DRA) compared to the league.

A few observations:

• Like the batting index, the “non-prospects” immediately dominate this pitching index. Trey Supak has been a deep cut since the Brewers acquired the projection-upside play in the Jason Rogers trade, and the righty worked what finally would be his first full season….at age 21. Taylor Jungmann is hardly even old for Class-AAA Colorado Springs as an organizational depth option. Quiet relief prospect Bubba Derby, a member of the Khris Davis trade, worked a season that matches the “contextual” aspects of Corbin Burnes or Supak (his trademate Jacob Nottingham also had a fine season on the batting index). Freddy Peralta looks like loads of fun, bringing numerous fastball and off-speed / breaking ball offerings and a funky delivery to keep hitters off balance. In this case, the command aspects (and delivery repetition due to a crossfire set-up) of the scouting report should be read alongside the index to round out future role and expectations, but it is undeniable that Peralta placed himself on the radar of quality organizational depth (at worst) in 2017.

• Cody Ponce had quite an interesting year in terms of DRA deviating from his other contextual factors. In terms of OPS, age, and park factors, Ponce scored well in both Carolina and Biloxi. Yet, the righty’s DRA did not stack up against either league, with DRA index of 0.86 and 0.97 in both assignments, respectively. The big righty is making his way up the organizational ladder, however, and it’s tough not to dream on that cutter or fastball at least helping Ponce secure a solid bullpen role of some sort.

• BP scouting team member James Fisher provided a detailed description of Jordan Yamamoto for last season’s midseason prospect feature, noting that delivery refinements and stuff progression drove the righty’s stock. Yamamoto continued to build on that 2016 notice with an excellent 2017 campaign, arguably putting together the most interesting pitching season in the organization (Burnes received the hype, but Yamamoto could have defined a role).The righty was extremely young for the Carolina League, and if the progression continues, the youngster could be primed to expand on a 140+ IP floor during his age-22 season at Class-AA Biloxi. It is worth noting that Yamamoto did not face tough competition in Carolina, although the funky park factors and his age did mightily correct for that indicator. If you’re skeptical about the index, DRA likes Yamamoto even more.

• Additional potential 2018 pop-ups / projection guys who posted better than average contextual index and DRA scores: Zack Brown, Josh Pennington, Braden Webb, and Thomas Jankins. Keep an eye on: Parker Berberet (!!!), Luis Ortiz, Jorge Lopez, Matt Ramsey, and Jon Perrin.

AAA Colorado Springs Sky Sox (80-57)

MVP: OF Brett Phillips

After a down year in AA last season, Phillips re-established himself as a promising outfield prospect this season with the Sky Sox. He finished fourth on the team in plate appearances despite a few stints in the big leagues, lead the club in home runs, and was second in RBI. He struck out more than one would like to see (29.9 percent) but posted a solid 10.4 percent walk rate and Phillips seems to have truly settled in as an above-average defender in center field.

432 PA || .305/.377/.567 || 19 HR || 9 SB || .295 TAv

Pitcher: RHP Taylor Jungmann

Not too long ago, it looked like Jungmann might become a fixture in Milwaukee’s rotation. He was awful last season in the majors and minors, but bounced back with a terrific performance in Colorado Springs in 2017. Jungmann spent some time with both the big league club and the AA Shuckers, but made 17 appearances and tossed 90.3 innings for the Sky Sox this season. In that time he posted a 2.59 ERA, the lowest earned run average a Sky Sox pitcher has authored in that many innings this century. A DRA- of 78 agrees that Jungmann was much better than the league-average pitcher, but that still wasn’t enough to merit a September call-up, casting some doubt on Taylor’s future with the organization.

90.3 IP || 2.59 ERA || 4.04 DRA || 82 K || 39 BB || 4 HR || 1.20 WHIP || 48% GB

AA Biloxi Shuckers (71-66)

MVP: C Jacob Nottingham

Biloxi is a tough venue for hitters, evidenced by the fact that only two Shuckers received more than 300 plate appearances and posted above a .700 OPS. Jacob Nottingham was not one of those players, compiling a .695 OPS with 9 homers and 48 RBI across 101 games. That was still good enough for a slightly above-average TAv, but most important for Nottingham’s value this season were the steps forward he took behind the plate. He graded out with +7.1 framing runs, caught 40% of would-be base thieves, and sliced his passed balls by more than 50% from last season. It’s looking more and more like Nottingham will be able to stay behind the plate, now the bat just has to start coming along a little bit more.

385 PA || .209/.326/.369 || 9 HR || 7 SB || .263 TAv

Pitcher: RHP Aaron Wilkerson

When you’re a 28 year old minor league veteran, it can get tough to convince and organization that you still deserve a shot at the big leagues. Aaron Wilkerson was able to do just that with an outstanding showing for the Shuckers this year. He started 24 games and tossed 142.3 innings, both tops on the club. He struck out more than a batter per inning while demonstrating his signature control, ultimately earning his first call-up to the MLB this September. Now that Wilkerson has broken through on to the 40 man and into The Show, he could compete for a starting rotation slot or spot in the bullpen as a swingman next spring.

142.3 IP || 3.16 ERA || 2.32 DRA || 143 K || 36 BB || 12 HR || 1.07 WHIP || 37% GB

High-A Carolina Mudcats (73-65)

MVP: OF Troy Stokes

In an organization crowded with outfield talent, Stokes finally managed to stay healthy and stand out this season. The 2014 4th-rounder played in 100 games for Carolina and lead the team in OPS, was 2nd in home runs and runs batted in, and fourth in stolen bases. A diminutive specimen, Stokes has demonstrated plus speed to go along with above-average power, and finished out the season with a strong 35 game run in AA Biloxi. He’s certainly put himself on the front office’s radar with his performance in 2017.

426 PA || .250/.344/.445 || 14 HR || 21 SB || .279 TAv

Related Reading:
Stoked for Carolina

Pitcher: RHP Jordan Yamamoto

Corbin Burnes (who was the org’s minor league pitcher of the year) and Freddy Peralta both had excellent partial seasons with Carolina, but we’ll give the nod here to Yamamoto for spending all year with the Mudcats. The 21 year old Hawaiian captured the league’s ERA title after finishing with 14.0 consecutive shutout innings, struck out better than a batter per inning and didn’t allow many walks. He throws four pitches and generally locates well, and there’s a possibility that the former 12th round pick can be a back-end starter at the big league level.

111.0 IP || 2.51 ERA || 2.80 DRA || 113 K || 30 BB || 8 HR || 1.09 WHIP || 40% GB

A Wisconsin Timber Rattlers (59-79)

MVP: OF Monte Harrison

Wisconsin was the worst offensive team in the Midwest League this season, so there’s not a whole lot of strong performers to choose from. We’ll give the nod to Monte Harrison, who only spent a half season with the T-Rats but was an offensive dynamo for Wisconsin before getting a mid-season promotion. Finally healthy, Harrison flashed the power/speed potential that made him such a tantalizing draft prospect back in 2014. He looked good in center field, too. It’s tough not to buy in when he’s praised a 2018 Breakout Candidate with tools that rival that of Lewis Brinson’s.

261 PA || .265/.359/.475 || 11 HR || 11 SB || .307 TAv

Pitcher: RHP Thomas Jankins

Within the organization only Corbin Burnes and Aaron Wilkerson tossed more innings than Jankins’ 141.7 for Wisconsin this season, and he certainly made them quality ones. A 13th-round pick in 2016, Jankins was considered a “projectable” pick by Baseball America due to his lack of exposure to high-end coaching. It seems he’s now thriving in Milwaukee’s ranks, utilizing a three-pitch mix to attack batters and generate ground balls. He has a starter’s build and repertoire and is certainly someone to keep an eye on going forward.

141.7 IP || 3.62 ERA || 2.53 DRA || 121 K || 32 BB || 14 HR || 1.22 WHIP || 55% GB

Related reading:
Meet Thomas Jankins

Rookie Helena Brewers (28-48)

MVP: 1B/3B/OF Gabriel Garcia

A 14th-round pick by the Brewers in the 2016 draft, Garcia has done nothing but hit since joining the professional ranks. The 19 year old lead the Brewers in plate appearances this season, had the most doubles, the third-most long balls, second-most RBI, and second-best OPS among batters with at least 200 PA. Drafted as a catcher, Garcia played mostly first base this year but also made over a dozen starts at third and a few appearances in the outfield. It will be interesting to see how well his offensive performances translate to full-season ball next year.

285 PA || 300/.420/.498 || 9 HR || 6 SB || .296 TAv

Pitcher: RHP Gabe Friese

Friese was an passed over in this summer’s draft and signed with Milwaukee as a free agent. After tossing 20.1 innings in Maryvale without allowing an earned run, Friese was bumped up to Helena to finish out the summer. In a league that is notoriously hitter-friendly, the results remained strong for Friese. In 33.0 innings for the Brewers, Friese yielded a 3.82 ERA and 4.24 DRA. For some context, that translates to a DRA- of 63, or 37 percent better than the average Pioneer League pitcher. As a 22 year old who was a bit old for the level, it’s tough to know what we should expect from Friese going forward. If his 0.8 BB/9 rate can continue, though, he’s likely to keep finding success as he climbs the minor league ladder.

33.0 IP || 3.82 ERA || 4.24 DRA || 26 K || 3 BB || 4 HR || 1.27 WHIP || 50% GB

Rookie Arizona Brewers (33-23)

MVP: 1B/OF Pat McInerney

Passed over after his senior season at the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, McInerny signed with Milwaukee following the draft and was assigned to the AZL, where he was more than two years older than the average player. McInerney took advantage of the inferior competition. He finished second on the club with 230 PA, tied for the league lead in home runs, took the fourth-most walks, and had the league’s 8th-best OPS. He showed some versatility, too, playing both left and right field in addition to first base. He did strike out 65 times in 50 games, though. McInerney could be a guy that sticks around the org for awhile, but given his advanced age he’ll have to show an awful lot if he hopes to ever reach the big leagues.

230 PA || .243/.378/.487 || 9 HR || 8 SB || .288 TAv

Pitcher: RHP Joaquin De La Cruz

De La Cruz began the season in the Dominican Summer League, but after our starts got his first stateside promotion to Arizona. He wound up tossing the third-most innings on the club while posting the league’s fifth-lowest ERA and the eighth-best strikeout rate (minimum 40 IP). De La Cruz doesn’t throw especially hard, but does feature a splitter, which is the organization’s favorite pitch. He’s got a long ways to climb before reaching the big league level, but at the very least his statistics appear promising.

42.7 IP || 2.53 ERA || 3.10 DRA || 46 K || 20 BB || 0 HR || 1.20 WHIP || 56% GB

Related Reading:
Joaquin De La Cruz and Second Chances

Dominican Summer League (Brewers 28-43, Indians/Brewers 23-47)

MVP: 1B/3B Aaron Familia

18 year old Familia signed with Milwaukee last summer and completed his second season in the DSL in 2017. Only two players in the DSL hit more home runs than Familia this summer, and he had the 13th-best OPS among qualifiers. At 6’2″ and 170 lbs, Familia still has plenty of filling out to do and could add to his raw power potential. He could make the jump stateside next season, though hopefully his swing-and-miss tendencies (70 strikeouts) will improve as he climbs the minor league ladder.

237 PA || .289/.422/.455 || 5 HR || 3 SB || .318 TAv

Pitcher: RHP Freisis Adames

Adames got a bit of a late start to his career in comparison to others in the DSL, not signing until last year at 19. As such he was a bit old for the league this summer, and he was one of the top hurlers on the circuit. Adames worked the league’s fourth-most innings, finished second in strikeouts, and even tossed a complete game shutout. His ERA was about a half-run lower than league average, but a DRA- of 41 suggests that Adames’ performance was a whopping 59 percent better than the typical DSL arm in 2017. Hopefully he too will get the opportunity to make the jump stateside next season, where it will be easier for scouts to give us a clue about what sort of stuff Adames is working with.

74.7 IP || 3.13 ERA || 1.98 DRA || 80 K || 21 BB || 1 HR || 1.12 WHIP || 59% GB

Photo Credit: Charles LeClaire, USAToday Sports Images

The one full-season club that hasn’t made much noise all season long is the lower A ball club, Class-A Wisconsin Timber Rattlers. The T-Rats sit at a lowly 53-75 even after last night’s 4-3 win over Peoria, which places them as the 2nd-worst team among the 16 squads that comprise the Midwest League. Their struggles have come on both sides of the ball, as Wisconsin owns the worst collective OPS in the league (.644) as well as the 3rd-worst earned run average (4.45).

It hasn’t been all disappointment for Wisconsin this season, however. A few of the prospects on the roster have stood out this season, including one of the top performing pitchers in the Midwest League this season.

Thomas Jankins was selected by the Milwaukee Brewers in the 13th round of the 2016 MLB Draft out of Quinnipiac University in Connecticut, a school known more for its prominent polling institute than for its athletic programs. Jankins was the third-highest selection from the school since the draft moved to June in 1986; the university has sent only one alumnus – longtime reliever Turk Wendell – all the way to the major leagues. If early indications mean anything, however, Jankins may be well on his way to joining Wendell by appearing in the big leagues someday.

After inking for a $100,000 bonus, Jankins hit the ground running as a professional. He began his career in Helena, as collegiate signees often do after the draft. In four games with the Brewers, the righty allowed four runs in 11.7 innings, but a nifty 14:2 K/BB ratio helped prompt a bump up to Wisconsin to finish out 2016. He made eight appearances down the stretch for the Timber Rattlers last season, compiling a 3.20 ERA/3.51 DRA with 21 strikeouts and 6 walks in 25.3 innings pitched.

Assigned back to Wisconsin for his age-21 season in 2017, Jankins has shone for the Timber Rattlers throughout the year. He’s been a model of consistency and durability, making 25 appearances and pitching a league-leading 131.7 innings. Jankins’s 3.76 ERA is easily better than the league average of 3.94, but even that doesn’t accurately depict how well he’s pitched this season. His 2.76 Deserved Run Average translates to a DRA- of 60.5, or 39.5 percent better than the Midwest League average. That means he’s been one of the most effective starters on the circuit in 2017.

Jankins possesses a starter’s build at 6’3″ tall and 200 lbs, and creates quite a difficult downward plane for hitters by coming from a high three-quarters arm slot, nearly over the top. He uses this angle to help generate plenty of ground balls, which he’s induced at a 56 percent rate this season. According to a pre-draft report from Baseball America, on a good night Jankins was sitting in the 89-92 MPH range with his fastball coming out of Quinnipiac, and could touch 93 MPH at times. BA praised his fastball for having above-average sink and noted that he’d shown flashes with both a curveball and changeup. Because of his lack of exposure to high-level coaching, Jankins was viewed as “projectable” by many scouts when he was coming out.

Thomas Jankins 6 K’s #TRats pic.twitter.com/pKDS4UdpnC

— Brewers Prospects (@BrewerProspect) July 22, 2017

The Brewers were obviously intrigued by what they saw in Jankins, and things have been working out quite well thus far. His stuff doesn’t jump off the board, but Jankins produces quality outing after quality outing by keeping the ball on the ground and limiting free passes – he’s walked just 5.4 percent of the hitters he’s faced this season, and his 2.1 BB/9 ranks 8th-best among Midwest League arms that have thrown at least 100 innings. He can miss a bat or two as well with a 20.3 percent strikeout rate this season, though his 7.6 K/9 does sit just below the league average. Jankins has been pitching especially well of late; he’s posted a 2.29 ERA over his last 63.0 innings and was Wisconsin’s pitcher of the month for July.

The Milwaukee Brewers have had some notable successes with popping collegiate arms in the later arms of the MLB Draft in recent years. Jacob Barnes (14th round, 2011), Brent Suter (31st round, 2012), and Brandon Woodruff (11th round, 2014) have all played roles on the big league club this season. In the minors, meanwhile, Jon Perrin (27th round, 2015) and Quintin Torres-Costa (35th round, 2015) have already shot through the system up to Class-AA this season, and both Jankins and Cameron Roegner (22nd round, 2016) are having success in Wisconsin.

It just goes to show that every pick matters in the MLB Draft. Even in the later rounds, an org can find future setup men (Barnes), swingmen/back end starters (Suter), or even a top pitching prospect if things go well developmentally (Woodruff). Time will tell if Thomas Jankins falls into one of those categories, but based off his physical and statistical profile, he’s certainly a player to keep an eye on going forward.

Related Reading:
Timber Rattler Bats

BPMilwaukee has been lucky to have the watchful eye of BP Scout James Fisher covering the Midwest League. On a recent trip, Fisher extensively scouted some of the Timber Rattlers’ biggest names and sleepers alike. This feature will include a statistical overview of the competitive levels and performance of these prospects, as well as some notes on their respective tools and ceilings.

Midwest League Environment
Judging minor league players by their statistics is a tricky endeavor. First and foremost, since players are developing their tools at the minor league level, their actual performances on the field are not always indicative of their MLB ceiling or potential future value. Furthermore, if a player is honing in on one specific area of their respective toolbox, other areas of their performance may suffer in their statistics. In this case, it is somewhat possible to have a player move forward without necessarily showcasing each of their tools in their statistical record. Age and development levels can also impact a player’s performance; this is especially true in the Midwest League, for instance, where a 19-year-old performing in their first full season of professional play after being drafted out of high school would be expected to perform at a different level than a polished college player working in their age-21 or age-22 season.

With that in mind, one way to consider minor league statistics is by judging each player within their specific context of age, opposition strength, and league strength. For example, the Midwest League is a much more depressed environment than the Class-A counterpart South Atlantic League, which impacts how one can read statistics:

With this in mind, I developed two charts to judge batting and pitching context for the Midwest League. 218 Midwest League batters have had regular play after the June draft or throughout the season, with a base threshold of 130 PA:

The 90% percentile is most elite, meaning that a player facing .661 opposingOPS pitchers is facing tougher competition than 90% of the league, or a .300 TAv is better than 90% of Midwest League regulars (i.e., the other way around, that player would be in the Top 10% of production). In terms of age, the 20th percentile is old for the level, the 90th percentile age is extremely young.

For pitchers, 228 arms have worked 30 innings or more:

In this case, a 2.55 FIP is better than 90% of regular hurlers, and a pitcher that faces a .682 opposingOPS is facing tougher competition than 90% of the Midwest League regular arms. One can note that comparing the full Midwest League with “regular players,” regular batters (130+ PA) have posted a much better median TAv than the league median (.252 TAv for regulars, .243 TAv for the full league). So, one might expect a regular batter to have a better performance in this sense (depending on their age and strength of opposition, of course).

Wisconsin Pitchers Scouted
The following entries are built from James Fisher’s scouting notes, the vast majority of which were compiled during an early August series in Appleton. Notes on Zack Brown and Corbin Burnes were added during a recent Beloit series.

Zack Brown – RHP (50th percentile FIP, 70th percentile age, 30th percentile competition): Brown has a tall, lean frame with room for more. Starts from a semi-windup and 3/4 slot, and arm action shows some warts with high back elbow, effort, and head whack out front. Fastball sat 90-94 and touched 95 with sink and finish down in the zone. Showed feel to both sides of the plate with swing and miss. Showed average feel for the curveball with 10/4 shape at 79-82, which is a swing-and-miss pitch, a power breaking ball with bite. Changeup is too firm at 82-85 and lacks true action. Brown can be effective with fastball/curveball combo, but will need third pitch to succeed.
MLB Role: Back end of the bullpen type in big leagues.
Wisconsin Note: Notably young, posting a median FIP against relatively weak competition.

Corbin Burnes – RHP (20th percentile FIP, 70th percentile age, 40th percentile competition): Medium frame with small shoulders. Burnes starts from a semi-windup and 3/4 slot. The arm action in the back is a little floppy and there is some effort throughout. Fastball sat 90-94 and touched 96. Burnes also throws a little cutter at 88-90 with late break. Fastball command limited in this outing, with front shoulder fly open. Most misses were arm side. Curveball sat 74-78, which started off slurvy but firmed up to 11/4 shape with bite and depth as the outing progressed. Showed feel for the pitch. Slider at 80 with short lateral break. It lacked depth in this outing. Changeup was 83-85 with below average fade. Threw enough strikes in this outing to be effective, but needs to reign in command to stay a starter.
MLB Role: 3 or 4 starter at the big league level.
Wisconsin Note: Poor FIP from a notably young pitcher facing slightly below-median competition.

Jordan Desguin – RHP (20th percentile FIP, 50th percentile age, 60th percentile competition) – Stocky, medium framed righty. Desguin starts from a high ¾ slot and a semi-windup. Pitches with a slightly below average fastball at 87-91, with some 2-seam action to it. His curveball sits 75-78 with 11/4 shape but lacks quality rotation and bite to the pitch. Changeup has marginal fade at 81-84, but Desguin keeps arm speed. High A ceiling. In Wisconsin, Desguin is median age, facing slightly stronger than median competition.

Jake Drossner – LHP (below 20th percentile FIP, 50th percentile age, 50th percentile competition): Drossner has a big, pro-style frame with little room remaining. Starts from a semi-windup and has a high ¾ slot. The elbow gets a touch high in the back and he pitches uphill through a high front shoulder. The southpaw pitches with a 6 fastball at present, sitting 90-94 with some late wiggle down in the zone. The Curveball lacks quality spin, but is thrown at 73-76 with 1/7 shape. Drossner can steal a strike call with it early in the count. The changeup sits 81-84 with slight fade when he keeps his arm speed. AA/AAA Roster filler ceiling. In Wisconsin, Drossner is median age, posting a poor FIP against median competition.

Nathan Griep – RHP (80th percentile FIP, 50th percentile age, 60th percentile competition): Large frame with High ¾ slot and funky delivery. Grief has a high, floppy elbow in back with effort throughout. Fastball sits 92-94 with armside run and some sink. Breaking ball is downer with bite, 11/4 shape. Changeup sits at 79 but lacks proper arm speed and authority. Lacks the ability to command the baseball. Thrower, not a pitcher. AA ceiling at best. In Wisconsin, median-aged Griep is posting a notably above average FIP against relatively tough competition.

David Lucroy – RHP (below 20th percentile FIP, 20th percentile age, 30th percentile competition): Pro-style frame with ¾ slot. The righty is short in the back, with a high elbow and stiffness throughout the delivery. Fastball sits 85-90 and is fairly straight. Lucroy’s curve sits 72-78, and he lacks feel for spin with 11/5 shape. High-A at best. In Wisconsin, Lucroy is relatively old, and is posting a poor FIP against relatively weak competition.

Trey Supak – RHP (20th percentile FIP, 80th percentile age, 50th percentile competition): Supak has a large, pro-style frame with strong lower half. Starts from a semi-windup and high ¾ slot. The delivery isn’t smooth, but there aren’t major concerns in the delivery; Supak is a little herky jerky. The fastball is a 6 to a tick above and sits 91-95. It’s a heavy ball with some arm side run. The righty locates the pitch to both sides of the plate, and isn’t afraid to elevate when needed. The curveball sits 87-80 with large 11/5 shape. It has average spin with consistent depth. The changeup sits 80-81 with fade and Supak keeps his armspeed.
MLB Role: Back end of the rotation potential.
Wisconsin Note: Supak is posting a poor FIP, although he is notably younger than the median pitcher, while also facing median competition.

Quintin Torres-Costa – LHP (70th percentile FIP, 70th percentile age, 30th percentile competition) – L3/4 slinger with average fastball and long sweepy breaking ball. Starts from an extremely closed off stance and strides closed creating deception from his arm slot. Left handed hitters don’t see it well out of the hand. Fastball sits 88-92 with run/sink that gets under hitters hands. Commands it armside but often loses the pitch gloveside. Sweepy, slurvy breaking ball that sits 74-76 with 2/8 shape. It has a long break that A-ball hitters struggle with but more advanced hitters will lay off of. At best, with a tighter breaking ball, a LOOGY at the big league level.
MLB Role: Situational relief.
Wisconsin Note: Torres-Costa is relatively young, and he is producing a strong FIP against relatively weak competition.

Devin Williams – RHP (40th percentile FIP, 70th percentile age, 60th percentile competition): Fisher noted, when asked to highlight a specific player, “I think the recently promoted Devin Williams needs some attention, his Changeup is truly fun to watch.” Fisher’s notes bear this fact:

Williams has a lean frame with broad shoulders, and room for more strength. Starts from a step back semi-windup and a high ¾ slot. He has a high leg lift and no major issues on the back side. Strides towards home plate with a flexed landing leg. The fastball is a 6 with 90-94, touching 96 when he needs it. The fastball is fairly straight, but Williams is working on a wrinkle 2-seamer around 87-88 to keep hitters honest. Controls the pitch to both sides of the plate and will elevate at 95 when he wants a K.

Williams’s changeup is a true 6, with quality arm speed and fade. When it’s right, hitters have no chance. Isn’t afraid to double up on the pitch to either side of the plate. Curveball sits 78-81 with inconsistent shape and spin. The curve is at its best when the shape is 11/5 with downer spin. Slider is being thrown more lately at 83-85 with shorter shape that he can get around on. Has some feel for spin, so one of the two breaking balls will get to average. Williams has really taken a step forward this year, and it’s fun to watch.
MLB Role: Back end of the rotation potential.
Wisconsin Note: Williams is posting a slightly below-median FIP, although the righty is relatively young and facing slightly stronger-than-median competition.

Jordan Yamamoto – RHP (80th percentile FIP, 80th percentile age, 40th percentile competition)– 6’0’’ righty with plus fastball and feel for spin. Starts from a ¾ slot and semi-windup. The delivery gets a little soft in the back. Lands flexed and online. FB sits 91-93 T94 with slight armside run. Curveball sits 74-76 with 10/4 shape. Loopier soft breaking ball that lacks bite and depth. Slider sits 82-84 with tighter rotation but still lacks average rotation and bite. Sweepy. Changeup lacks consistent arm speed but when thrown properly flashes fade. Command profile weak at present with side-to-side fastball but softness in back of delivery will keep from becoming average. AA/AAA roster filler ceiling. Wisconsin Note: Yamamoto is extremely young, and posting an excellent FIP against slightly-below median competition.

Did Not See:
Miguel Diaz – RHP (30th percentile FIP, 70th percentile age, below 20th percentile competition); Alex Farina – RHP (40th percentile FIP, 20th percentile age, 30th percentile competition); Scott Grist – RHP (40th percentile FIP, below 20th percentile age, 20th percentile competition); Thomas Jankins – RHP (90th percentile FIP, 80th percentile age, 90th percentile competition [!!!]).

DL:
David Burkhalter (60th FIP, 80th age, 20th competition), Conor Harber (80th FIP, 40th age, 30th competition), Drake Owenby (below 20th FIP, 40th age, 70th competition), Chase Williams (80th FIP, 20th age, 90th competition).

James Fisher is a BaseballProspectus scout and author.