Over the weekend, manager Craig Counsell confirmed that Anderson will be in the opening day rotation, and this statement has some interesting implications. Most importantly for Anderson, this announcement allows the young righty to methodically prepare in spring training without needing to look over his shoulder and wonder if he is pitching for a job. It presents him an ability to focus on developing his repertoire and command in a stress-free environment. In terms of roster construction and player development , though, it confirms that young hurlers Jorge Lopez and Zach Davies are expected to begin the year in Triple-A Colorado Springs. This article will delve into the consequences of that decision.

The most important point here—and the big caveat to the analysis that will follow—is that this decision ultimately makes sense. Neither Lopez nor Davies made a big-league appearance before September last year, so neither of them should have been expecting to break camp with the major-league team. It’s not a shot to the ego. But Nelson, Anderson, and Peralta have all spent various chunks of seasons in the major leagues, so being sent to the minor leagues would certainly be viewed as a demotion.

However, Lopez and Davies may very well be better than at least one of those three — and it wouldn’t be prudent to consider Garza or Jungmann as “sure things” in 2015 — and although Peralta had an impressive debut in 2012, he has compiled a pedestrian 4.11 ERA in the three years and 490.2 innings since his debut. The 26-year-old has posted just 2.0 WARP in over 500 innings, but continues to get opportunities due to the promise of his power sinker-slider arsenal. Anderson, on the other hand, is already 28 but didn’t make his big-league debut until his age-26 season. Nonetheless, his career 4.32 DRA is uninspiring. Even if we acknowledge that pitchers develop at different rates, we have to presume that Anderson is unlikely to tap into some unreached potential at this stage of his career. Finally, Nelson had a nice enough rebound season in 2015, but his 2014 campaign was so disastrous (6.13 DRA in 69.3 innings) that it won’t leave our memory anytime soon.

Both Lopez and Davies are promising youngsters. While there’s no guarantee that either of them will turn out to be mid-rotation starters that could make them an upgrade over Nelson, Anderson, or Peralta, it’s not an unreasonable outcome to expect. Plus, both are nearly (if not already) big-league ready pitchers, so the fact that they’ll likely begin the year in the minors illustrates how the Brewers are truly committed to their current starting five. Or perhaps playing the service-time game. Or both.

We also have to take into account what this decision could do to the confidence of Lopez and Davies. This isn’t to suggest that they’ll be disheartened by the minor-league optioning itself. Rather, it’s more that the Brewers’ Triple-A affiliate is in Colorado Springs, which is notoriously hitter-friendly. The ballclub suffers from the same problems that affect the Rockies’ ability to develop pitchers, in that the altitude not only inflates hitters’ numbers but also affects the break on off-speed pitches. Too much time in that environment could do damage to a pitcher’s confidence and development, as the Rockies saw when their Triple-A team was in Colorado Springs. Given the potential of both Lopez and Davies — and even lefty Josh Hader, who will likely join them — the Brewers will want to be sure their young pitchers do not spend too much time in that sort of funhouse-type environment.

An additional factor in their development concerns is that both Lopez and Davies rely on off-speed pitches to be effective. As was mentioned in their scouting reports in the Brewers’ Top-10 list, Lopez possesses an above-average curveball and Davies has an above-average changeup. Given the fact that the environment in Colorado Springs is different from what it is in nearly every other ballpark in which the two will pitch in the majors, too much time trying to adjust could have adverse consequences.

The final consideration here is what this announcement means for their 2016 timing. Presumably, the fact that Counsell announced his rotation so early indicates that this was not a close decision. This means that each of the three “veterans” will have a relatively long leash, so I would guess that neither Lopez nor Davies should expect to get a chance for a couple months, unless an injury forces the organization’s hands. Those couple months in a rebuilding year may not seem like a big deal, after all the team is not trying to win, but leaving the two pitchers in Colorado Springs for an extended period of time could be harmful to their development.

Davies and Lopez are young pitchers who have impressed in the minor leagues and in camp, but Counsell’s recent proclamation that Chase Anderson will be in the rotation indicates that neither of them are likely to break camp with the big-league team. Instead, they will be forced to develop in Colorado Springs, where the altitude can affect breaking pitches and, subsequently, mechanics. This settled rotation, which doesn’t seem like a big deal at the outset, could actually have on-the-mound consequences for both Lopez and Davies, and that will be important to remember as the Brewers develop more pitching prospects at the high ends of the minors.

Team officials noticed.

Tom Flanagan, Milwaukee’s new Farm Director, remembers that Hader “really made an impression on the Biloxi staff” that night in Mobile. “A few days later I talked to [Biloxi pitching coach] Chris Hook,” Flanagan recalled, “and he told me that Hader took over the game from the beginning — that he pitched like he was on a mission.”

Hader’s mission, it seems, is to pitch his way into a Major League rotation. A 19th-round selection of the Orioles in 2012, the young left-hander has succeeded at every level of the minors through Double-A. In 58 starts and 32 relief appearances across three-plus seasons, Hader has compiled a 2.95 ERA with 398 strikeouts in 363.1 innings. As his walk rate has declined, his strikeout rate has increased. Following his successful debut in Mobile, he started another six games for Biloxi, striking out 41 and walking only 11 in 33.2 innings. Then, he capped his 2015 season with a dominant performance in the Arizona Fall League, where, pitching mainly in relief, he posted a miniscule 0.56 ERA and caught the attention of Gammons Daily as one of the season’s standout performers.

First impressions, however, can be double-edged. For all his minor-league success, Hader has yet to alter scouts’ and industry analysts’ early assessments of him as pitcher whose lanky frame and three-quarters delivery raise concerns about durability, and whose below-average secondary offerings limit his potential as a starter. Earlier this month I ranked Hader the No. 4 prospect in Milwaukee’s system and No. 16 overall in the National League Central. BP, however, left him out of the Brewers’ Top-10 altogether.

Time alone will reveal whether or not Hader can answer the durability question by holding up under a starter’s workload over a full season. Flanagan, at least, has no concerns about the young lefty’s delivery. “We’ll monitor it,” Flanagan said, “and we’ll judge it by how he feels in between starts.”  

In 2015, Hader’s three highest pitch totals came in three consecutive starts with Biloxi.  On August 20, 26, and 31, Hader threw 99, 96 and 99 pitches, respectively, and made it through seven innings in each of the last two starts. So while the Brewers have been judicious with their young starter’s pitch count — limiting his innings in the Arizona Fall League, for instance — they also understand that the only way to find out if Hader can handle a starter’s workload is to give him one.

The other knock against Hader has been his below-average secondary offerings. Flanagan notes that Hader “could get away with using only his fastball” because there’s so much deception in the delivery that “righties and lefties take bad swings off him.” That’s not to say, however, that Hader must rely only on his fastball. His slider and changeup, Flanagan said, have been “better than advertised.” Best of all, Hader, whom Flanagan described as an intense competitor with advanced focus and makeup, has “confidence in all three pitches.” In short, he “shows all the signs and tools necessary to be a starter.”

Flanagan was quick to note that Hader “also has the ability to pitch out of the pen.” If, however, Hader does shift to a relief role in the future, he would do so only to satisfy the Brewers’ team needs at the Major League level, not because of his own limitations as a pitcher. His success against both lefties and righties would make him not a lefty specialist but a one-or-two-inning, high-leverage reliever in the mold of Pittsburgh’s Tony Watson. If it comes to that, the Brewers organization would not complain.

Meanwhile, Hader will remain a starter with significant upside. When reminded that Hader had drawn comparisons to established aces such as Chris Sale and Madison Bumgarner, Flanagan urged caution. “You hate to even drop those names,” he said, for it puts too much pressure on the youngster. “But,” he continued, pausing perhaps to recall the impression Hader already has left on his new organization, “you can get excited.”                

BP Milwaukee is digging deeper into the Brewers’ farm system, though, as Christopher Crawford and the rest of the BP Prospect Team have exclusively provided their No. 11-20 prospects for Milwaukee. The scouting information comes from Crawford (compiled and written by myself), with some of my personal thoughts coming at the end.

11.  Nathan Kirby, LHP
12. Jacob Gatewood, SS
13. Demi Orimoloye, OF

A common refrain in the Brewers’ system, none of the three prospects listed above were a part of the organization two years ago. All are intriguing pieces, but patience will be essential. Kirby was once considered a safe top-five pick before injuries knocked him to the supplemental round. His recent Tommy John surgery pushes his timeline back even further and makes his ugly 5.68 ERA in Class-A rather irrelevant. In truth, he’s not too different from fellow UVA alumni Danny Hultzen, just with a shoulder that’s not decaying.

Gatewood has massive bat speed and plus-plus power potential — as evidenced by his 40 extra-base hits in just 389 at-bats — but the contact issues prevent him from being anything more than a high-value lottery ticket. What’s crazy is that Orimoloye could have more upside than Gatewood. The Brewers’ fourth-round pick has three tools with 60 potential and showed a bit more feel for hitting than expected. He could be a Top-100 prospect by the end of the 2016 season, if his early success carries into the upcoming campaign.

14. Josh Hader, LHP
15. Adrian Houser, RHP
16. Kodi Medeiros, LHP

Hader pitched well in Double-A for the Astros organization this past year, but the left-hander kicked it into a higher gear after moving to Double-A Biloxi. He has an above-average fastball that touches 98 mph and two competent secondary offerings. Although his penchant for missing bats has garnered him a lot of attention from Brewers followers, the arm action remains ugly and difficult to project. That latter piece will unfortunately follow him until he’s able to put together a substantial body of work at the highest level.

Some folks in the industry were most impressed with Houser and his development in the second half. The command and the secondaries come and go, an inconsistency that could force him to the bullpen, but his 2.92 ERA and 4.0 percent walk rate for Double-A Biloxi illustrate the fact that he made some impressive adjustments that could help him stick as a starter if everything continues to progress.

Medeiros isn’t too different from Hader, just a couple levels his junior. The lefty has some strong supporters in the industry who believe in his devastating fastball-slider combination, while some are heavy detractors due to his poor changeup, bad mechanics, and non-ideal size. On the bright side, the 19-year-old handled an aggressive promotion to full-season ball and didn’t allow a single home run in 93.1 innings. He could ultimately be a reliever, but he could be a darn good one.

17. Yadiel Rivera, SS
18. Marcos Diplan, RHP
19. Michael Reed, OF
20. Javier Betancourt, 2B

The final quartet is a mixed bag, with potential bench bats and a talented young pitcher with extreme variance in his potential outcomes. Rivera and Betancourt are glove-first middle infielders (at shortstop and second base, respectively) with little chance to do anything special with the bat. Betancourt has a bit more bat speed and more feel for the barrel, but Rivera is one of the best defensive shortstops in all the minors. While they’re a pair of unexciting prospects, small-market organizations need to develop quality bench players to ensure they don’t have to overspend for them in free agency.

Speaking of homegrown reserves, Reed may be the perfect fourth outfielder. No standout tools and a lack of physical projectability limit his ceiling, but he’s well-rounded, smart, and can provide quality defense in the corner outfield spots. He hit .278/.379/.422 in Double-A. The power needs to take a real step forward, though, if he’s going to stick as an everyday guy.

Diplan is another guy with big stuff and a small body, so all the natural question marks pertain. He posted a 3.75 ERA in 50.1 innings for Helena in the Pioneer League, striking out an impressive 25.7 percent of the batters he faced. At 19 years old and ages away from being anything concrete, he’s a wild card in the system.

BREEN’S TAKE

Although the above list is grouped in three tiers, it should be noted that a significant drop-off exists between Kodi Medeiros and Yadiel Rivera, at least for me. The top-16 prospects can largely be ordered however you’d like. Personal preference matters. I know at least one scout who would push Hader and Houser into the top-10, another who would demand for Orimoloye to be ranked higher, and yet another who would balk at Kirby’s omission from the top-10 list. That’s how these things go, which is why all prospect lists should be read for their content much more than the individual ranking slots.

Still, the future of the Brewers’ system depends on the development of many of these players. If Hader, Houser, and Medeiros ultimately wind up as sure-fire relievers, this list suddenly has a different complexion. Similarly, if Gatewood cuts down the strikeouts and continues to hit for power and Orimoloye enjoys more success in 2016, the Brewers will have a plethora of high-end offensive prospects that should help them shorten their rebuilding process. And if general manager David Stearns bolsters the system with additional trades this winter, things look even more promising.

I believe the most encouraging aspect of Baseball Prospectus’ top-20 Brewers prospects is what is not present. Guys like Clint Coulter, Tyler Wagner, Damien Magnifico, and Miguel Diaz have legitimate big-league potential (to varying degrees and with different timelines, of course) and couldn’t crack either of the lists. Those will certainly feel like oversights to some people, but it’s really splitting hairs whether someone is ranked No. 17 or No. 23. The real takeaway is the fact that the Brewers have enough depth to have 20-plus prospects with legitimate big-league potential.

And given the fact that David Stearns has already shown a willingness to move Major League players for prospects, the full-blown rebuilding process in Milwaukee has a chance to be less painful than the one that happened in Chicago or Houston. A fan can’t ask for anything more than that.

In the meantime, here’s a preview of the list:

The Top Ten

1. SS Orlando Arcia
2. OF Brett Phillips
3. RHP Jorge Lopez
4. OF Trent Clark
5. SS Gilbert Lara
6. RHP Devin Williams
7. OF Monte Harrison
8. RHP Zach Davies
9. RHP Cody Ponce
10. OF Tyrone Taylor

Please take the time to read the remainder of the list [click here].

MLB’s 2013 realignment into six different five-team divisions, coupled with its decision to reward division winners by forcing two wildcard entrants into a one-game playoff, constitutes by far this century’s most important alteration to the game’s competitive structure. Fair evaluation of a team’s performance, therefore, requires close consideration of the divisional context. In 2015, for instance, the Brewers played the Cubs, Reds, Pirates, and Cardinals 19 games each for a total of 76 games. That’s 47 percent of Milwaukee’s schedule. By comparison, the NFL’s Packers face the division-rival Bears, Lions, and Vikings only six times in sixteen games, or 38 percent of Green Bay’s overall schedule. Divisional play, in short, matters more in baseball than in any other major professional sport. 

If fair evaluation of a team’s performance requires divisional context, then the same holds true when attempting to predict that team’s future fortunes. Prospect junkies love to talk about the best farm systems in baseball and compare organizations; it’s interesting and harmless good fun. For competitive purposes, however, it makes little difference how the quality of the Brewers’ system compares to, say, that of the Blue Jays. On the other hand, in light of divisional play and heavy intra-divisional schedules, comparing the quality of the Brewers’ system of those of the Cubs, Reds, Pirates, and Cardinals becomes not only interesting but essential to any forward-looking analysis.

For several years, the outlook on this front was bleak for Brewers fans. St. Louis, the NL Central’s perennial juggernaut, advanced either to the NL Championship Series or World Series every year from 2011-14.  Pittsburgh, downtrodden for two decades, has earned three consecutive wildcard berths.  And the Chicago Cubs, “lovable losers” for the better part of a century, appear poised to contend for division titles and more well into the future thanks to a remarkable rebuilding effort that has netted them perhaps the most enviable core of young hitters to arrive in the majors in decades.

That final phrase, however–to arrive in the majors–signals a change in how we should view the five NL Central farm systems. Many of the top prospects who made the Cardinals’, Pirates’, and Cubs’ systems so strong have graduated to the major leagues since 2012: Carlos Martinez, Kolten Wong, Stephen Piscotty, and Randal Grichuk in St. Louis; Starling Marte and Gregory Polanco in Pittsburgh; Kris Bryant, Jorge Soler, Addison Russell, Javier Baez, and Kyle Schwarber in Chicago. The question, of course, is what’s left? Do these contenders have enough remaining in their farm systems alone to sustain their success into 2017 and beyond?

For the non-contenders, in particular for the Brewers, 2017 is the key date. By trading Carlos Gomez, whose contract runs through the end of next season, the Milwaukee front office announced to the baseball world that it does not expect to contend in 2016. Adding the cheap and controllable starter Mike Fiers to the Gomez deal merely amplified the announcement; as solid as Fiers has been, he will turn 32 in June 2017, so the Brewers wisely chose to trade Fiers and his years of (likely) diminishing effectiveness in exchange for prospects.  

One way to compare these five systems is to rank the division’s best prospects regardless of affiliation. This, of course, is not the only available method, and it might not even be the best one, but it does offer a useful perspective, for it allows us at least to begin a conversation about which pipeline features the most impact-talent, which is deepest and most balanced, and which, therefore, gives its fans the best reason to hope for the future.  

Counting down from 50 to 1, here are my top 50 prospects in the NL Central, including age on Opening Day 2016 and the team they played for at the highest level they reached in 2015:

Nos. 50-41

50. Donnie Dewees, OF Cubs, 22, Eugene Emeralds (SS Northwest League)
49. Antonio Santillan, RHP Reds, 18, Reds (Arizona Rookie Lg.)
48. Junior Fernandez, RHP Cardinals, 19, Palm Beach Cardinals (A+ Florida State Lg.)**
47. Cody Ponce, RHP Brewers, 21, Wisconsin Timber Rattlers (A Midwest Lg.)
46. Willson Contreras, C/3B Cubs, 23, Tennessee Smokies (AA Southern Lg.)
45. Pierce Johnson, RHP Cubs, 24, Tennessee Smokies (AA Southern Lg.)
44. Edmundo Sosa, SS Cardinals, 20, Johnson City Cardinals (Appalachian Rookie Lg.)
43. Keury Mella, RHP Reds, 22, Daytona Tortugas (A+ Florida State Lg.)
42. Alex Blandino, SS Reds, 23, Pensacola Blue Wahoos (AA Southern Lg.)
41. Kevin Newman, SS Pirates, 22, West Virginia Power (A South Atlantic Lg.)

**Junior Fernandez appeared in two games with the Palm Beach Cardinals but spent most of the season in the rookie Gulf Coast League.

Another dozen-or-so players could make a case for inclusion on this list somewhere in the 50-41 range. Assuming he sticks at shortstop, which appears likely, and assuming his hit-tool develops as expected, Edmundo Sosa could have the highest ceiling of any player in this group.  

Cody Ponce makes the cut as the only Brewer in the list’s “bottom” 10. Projections on Ponce are all over the place. MLB.com rates him the 29th-best prospect in the system, which, given Ponce’s excellent 2015 debut, would be good news for the system. Others, including some folks here at BP Milwaukee, are more bullish on the young righthander. He makes the top-50 and will ascend the rankings with a repeat performance at (likely) High-A Brevard County in 2016.

Nos. 40-31

40. Jake Gatewood, SS Brewers, 20, Wisconsin Timber Rattlers (A Midwest Lg.)
39. Magneuris Sierra, OF Cardinals, 19, Peoria Chiefs (A Midwest Lg.)
38. Harrison Bader, OF Cardinals, 21, Peoria Chiefs (A Midwest Lg.)
37. Harold Ramirez, OF Pirates, 21, Bradenton Marauders (A+ Florida State Lg.)
36. Luke Weaver, RHP Cardinals, 22, Palm Beach Cardinals (A+ Florida State Lg.)
35. Zach Davies, RHP Brewers, 23, Milwaukee Brewers (Majors)
34. Carl Edwards, Jr., RHP Cubs, 24, Chicago Cubs (Majors)**
33. Dylan Cease, RHP Cubs, 20, Cubs (Arizona Rookie League)
32. Kodi Medeiros, LHP Brewers, 19, Wisconsin Timber Rattlers (A Midwest Lg.)
31. Cole Tucker, SS Pirates, 19, West Virginia Power (A South Atlantic Lg.)

**Carl Edwards, Jr. appeared in five games for the Cubs at the major-league level but spent the majority of the season with the Triple-A Iowa Cubs.

Dylan Cease at #33 might seem like an aggressive ranking, but the former Vanderbilt commit, back from TJ surgery, has more upside than the other pitchers in this group–so much so, in fact, that Baseball America rated him the #2 overall prospect in the Arizona League after the 2015 season.

The 40-31 group includes three Brewers.  Jake Gatewood will not stick at shortstop, and he needs time to develop his hit-tool, but prodigious power alone keeps him on this list. Zach Davies always profiles as a back-end starter and always outperforms his profile. He’s the lowest-rated player on this list who has major-league experience, closed the 2015 season with back-to-back scoreless outings in Chicago and San Diego, and has the inside track on a 2016 rotation spot. Kodi Medeiros, the Brewers’ top pick (12th overall) in the 2014 draft, performed very well as a teenager in the Midwest League, where he started 16 games and averaged more than a strikeout-per-inning.

Nos. 30-21

30. Eloy Jimenez, OF Cubs, 19, Eugene Emeralds (SS Northwest Lg.)
29. Ke’Bryan Hayes, 3B Pirates, 19, West Virginia Black Bears (SS NY-Penn Lg.)
28. Marco Gonzales, LHP Cardinals, 24, St. Louis Cardinals (Majors)**
27. Jack Flaherty, RHP Cardinals, 20, Peoria Chiefs (A Midwest Lg.)
26. Jorge Lopez, RHP Brewers, 23, Milwaukee Brewers (Majors)**
25. Devin Williams, RHP Brewers, 21, Wisconsin Timber Rattlers (A Midwest Lg.)
24. Gilbert Lara, SS Brewers, 18, Helena Brewers (Pioneer Rookie Lg.)
23. Cody Reed, LHP Reds, 22, Pensacola Blue Wahoos (AA Southern Lg.)
22. Monte Harrison, OF Brewers, 20, Wisconsin Timber Rattlers (A+ Midwest Lg.)
21. Marcos Diplan, RHP Brewers, 19, Helena Brewers (Pioneer Rookie Lg.)

**Marco Gonzales made one start in the majors but spent the majority of 2015 with the Triple-A Memphis Redbirds.

**Jorge Lopez made two starts in the majors but spent the majority of 2015 with the Double-A Biloxi Shuckers.

Eloy Jimenez, one of most coveted players in the 2013 international class, makes the top-30 thanks to a combination of impressive raw tools and better-than-expected production in the Northwest League. Ke’Bryan Hayes, a 2015 draftee, earned praise for his advanced approach in the GCL.

Here, the mounting strength of the Milwaukee system begins to show itself: a whopping five Brewers appear in the 21-30 range. Distinguishing between these five, at least for the purpose of ranking prospects, is a true exercise in splitting hairs. Jorge Lopez, of course, is so close to the majors that he actually reached them in September 2015. Devin Williams had perhaps the best performance of the group this past season. The other three–Gilbert Lara, Monte Harrison, and Marcos Diplan–boast three of the system’s highest ceilings. Put them in whatever order you please, and it remains a strong contingent.

Nos. 20-11

20. Reese McGuire, C Pirates, 21, Bradenton Marauders (A+ Florida State Lg.)
19. Ian Happ, OF Cubs, 21, South Bend Cubs (A Midwest Lg.)
18. Demi Orimoloye, OF Brewers, 19, Brewers (Arizona Rookie Lg.)
17. Duane Underwood, RHP Cubs, 21, Myrtle Beach Pelicans (A+ Carolina League)
16. Josh Hader, LHP Brewers, 21, Biloxi Shuckers (AA Southern League)
15. Alen Hanson, 2B Pirates, 23, Indianapolis Indians (AAA International Lg.)
14. Tyler Stephenson, C Reds, 19, Billings Mustangs (Pioneer Rookie Lg.)
13. Amir Garrett, LHP Reds, 23, Dayton Tortugas (A+ Florida State Lg.)
12. Billy McKinney, OF Cubs, 21, Tennessee Smokies (AA Southern Lg.)
11. Jesse Winker, OF Reds, 22, Pensacola Blue Wahoos (AA Southern Lg.)

Billy McKinney and Jesse Winker had pedestrian seasons in 2015 but still could emerge as impact players for their organizations. A full season at Triple-A will determine their respective trajectories. The sleeper in this group is Tyler Stephenson, a big-bodied teenage catcher with some power who enjoyed a nice debut at Billings and projects to stick behind the plate.

Call me crazy, but I’m as bullish on this group’s two Brewers, Hader and Orimoloye, as anyone could be. Milwaukee stole Demi Orimoloye in the 4th round and then signed him to a reasonable bonus of $450,000. At 6’4”-225, the young Canadian outfielder offers a power-speed combo that could make him one of the steals-of-the-draft. His Arizona-League debut included a .292/.319/.518 split with 6 homers and 19 stolen bases in only 33 games. Josh Hader, meanwhile, entered 2015 as Baseball America’s reigning California League Pitcher-of-the-Year–no small feat. This past season, Hader threw 104 combined Double-A innings between Corpus Christi and Biloxi, compiled a 3.03 ERA, and struck out a whopping 119. One would like to see how the young lefthander performs with an increased workload, but it seems fair to evaluate him as a future starter until he proves he cannot start.  

Nos. 10-1

10. Jameson Taillon, RHP Pirates, 24, Injured–did not pitch
9. Trent Clark, OF Brewers, 19, Helena Brewers (Pioneer Rookie Lg.)
8. Brett Phillips, OF Brewers, 21, Biloxi Shuckers (AA Southern Lg.)
7. Gleyber Torres, SS Cubs, 19, Myrtle Beach Pelicans (A+ Carolina Lg.)**
6. Austin Meadows, OF Pirates, 20, Altoona Curve (AA Eastern Lg.)**
5. Robert Stephenson, RHP Reds, 23, Louisville Bats (AAA International Lg.)
4. Josh Bell, 1B Pirates, 23, Indianapolis Indians (AAA International Lg.)
3. Alex Reyes, RHP Cardinals, 21, Springfield Cardinals (AA Texas Lg.)
2. Orlando Arcia, SS Brewers, 21, Biloxi Shuckers (AA Southern Lg.)
1. Tyler Glasnow, RHP Pirates, 22, Indianapolis Indians (AAA International Lg.)

**Gleyber Torres appeared in seven games for Myrtle Beach but spent the majority of 2015 with the South Bend Cubs of the Low-A Midwest League.

**Austin Meadows appeared in six games for Altoona but spent the majority of 2015 with the Bradenton Marauders of the High-A Florida State League.

Two lost seasons have dulled Jameson Taillon’s luster, so his ranking here assumes a return to full health. Either way, Pittsburgh will have more impact-players arriving at PNC Park before long.

Once again the Brewers are well represented, and this is an important group in which to be represented. These are the players who have the potential to become first-division regulars, all-stars, and even franchise cornerstones. A frightening outfield injury notwithstanding, Trent Clark, Milwaukee’s top pick in 2015 (15th overall) enjoyed an excellent debut. Between Arizona and Helena he slashed .309/.424/.430, swiped 25 bags, and showed advanced plate-discipline. He should hit at or near the top of the Brewers’ lineup for many years. Brett Phillips’s numbers fell off once he left Lancaster’s cozy confines, but that happens with most prospects. His defense rates as plus across the board, but he must continue to hit in order to justify the Gomez-Fiers trade, of which he was the centerpiece.  The smart money says he will. Finally, Orlando Arcia enjoyed the best campaign of his young career, carried Biloxi to a first-half division championship, and cemented his status as one of the best prospects in baseball. If he continues to develop as he has thus far, he will take over as the Brewers’ starting shortstop no later than 2017 and will be one of the special young players around whom franchises build their teams. 

All told, the final per-club tally of Top-50 prospects looks like this:

Milwaukee 14
Pittsburgh 10
Chicago 10
St. Louis 8
Cincinnati 8

With four players in the top-10 and six in the top-20, Pittsburgh still has the most impact-talent in its system. A year ago, of course, the Cubs would have dominated that upper-echelon. It is fair to assume that those two teams will remain formidable at the major-league level even as their minor-league systems begin to appear less so.

Conventional wisdom holds that St. Louis always will develop pitching. With Alex Reyes in the fold, the cupboard is hardly bare. It is depleted, though, and that makes the future NL Central even more interesting

No doubt Cincinnati fans would like to see a few more names on this list. In fairness, however, the Reds have promoted many of their promising young pitchers, including Raisel Iglesias and Brandon Finnegan, and the minor-league system does have some impact-talent on the way.

So where does that leave Milwaukee? Sheer volume alone does not make a system strong, but it helps. Fourteen Brewers made this list; four others I considered did not. All eighteen have a better-than-average chance of making it to the majors, and most of those eighteen have a chance to make good careers in the majors. The organization appears strong at shortstop, strong and very deep in the outfield, and deep in starting pitching. It lacks corner infielders and a projectable ace. Buster Olney reports that new GM David Stearns will listen to trade offers involving anyone on the roster, so at this point it is difficult to project how the 2016 Brewers will look, let alone the team’s composition in future years. If, as reported, the new regime plans to cultivate the farm system’s strength by exchanging current major-league players for prospects who might fill some of the system’s gaps, then there is every reason to expect that Milwaukee’s prospect-pipeline, which at minimum has closed the gap on its division rivals in the past two seasons, will become the NL Central’s strongest system, if it has not already. Clearly, this bodes well for the Brewers’ chances to compete at the major-league level in 2017 and beyond.