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	<title>Milwaukee &#187; Trade Deadline</title>
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		<title>Transaction Analysis: Brewers Send Aramis Ramirez to Pittsburgh</title>
		<link>http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2015/07/23/transaction-analysis-brewers-send-aramis-ramirez-to-pittsburgh/</link>
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		<pubDate>Thu, 23 Jul 2015 22:44:51 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Jack Moore]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Trade Analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Aramis Ramirez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Player Analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Trade Deadline]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Yhonathan Barrios]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[Traded 3B-R Aramis Ramirez to the Pittsburgh Pirates for RHP Yhonathan Barrios The Brewers began indicating to both baseball media and front offices around the league that they would be sellers as early as May 7th. The Brewers have plenty of players worthy of trade speculation—Carlos Gomez and Ryan Braun perhaps the most interesting—but the most obvious [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><em>Traded 3B-R Aramis Ramirez to the Pittsburgh Pirates for RHP Yhonathan Barrios</em></p>
<p>The Brewers began indicating to both baseball media and front offices around the league that they would be sellers <a href="http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/writer/jon-heyman/25177627/inside-baseball-trade-possibilities-for-likely-seller-brewers-plus-more-mlb-news" target="_blank">as early as May 7th</a>. The Brewers have plenty of players worthy of trade speculation—Carlos Gomez and Ryan Braun perhaps the most interesting—but the most obvious trade candidate, the player most clearly on his way out was third baseman Aramis Ramirez. The 37-year-old will be retiring at the end of the season and is in the last year of a four-year contract with Milwaukee, making him a relatively painless option for a team in need of infield help.</p>
<p>And over the past few weeks, the Pirates swiftly became that team. First, Josh Harrison tore the UCL in his thumb sliding into second base on July 5th, forcing Jung-Ho Kang into action as the everyday third baseman. Then during the Brewers last series against Pittsburgh over the weekend, Carlos Gomez collided with Jordy Mercer sliding to break up a double play, a collision that resulted in a bruised and sprained left knee. Now, Kang will move back to his original position of shortstop with Ramirez taking over duties at third for the Pirates, as the Brewers have agreed to send Ramirez and cash considerations to Pittsburgh in exchange for hard throwing right-handed pitcher Yhonathan Barrios.</p>
<p>Ramirez&#8217;s April struggles were part of the nose dive that killed Milwaukee&#8217;s season in its first month. He hit a brutal .214/.236/.357 in 22 April games and walked just once against 12 strikeouts. Any time a player as old and with as much mileage as Ramirez—lest we forget, he made his MLB debut at age 19 and is 10th among active players with 2,138 games played and 8,772 plate appearance—starts so slowly, the natural instinct is to assume Father Time has finally caught up to him. But slow starts have been the norm for Ramirez throughout his career. Ramirez has just a .769 career OPS in April and a .781 mark in May—15 percent and 12 percent below his typical marks respectively, according to Baseball-Reference&#8217;s tOPS+. In every other month, he has posted a career OPS over .800.</p>
<p>Since his brutal April, Ramirez is hitting .258/.313/.455, a respectable line compared to the National League third base average of .268/.328/.431. That&#8217;s a far sight better than what anybody in the Pirates organization (Pittsburgh&#8217;s likely replacement third baseman was former White Sox starter Brent Morel, owner of a .225/.272/.325 career line) could have done. For a Pirates team within six games of the Cardinals in the division and leading the Wild Card race, Ramirez was an awfully cheap fix.</p>
<p>Barrios, Milwaukee&#8217;s return, is a somewhat fascinating prospect. It&#8217;s rare enough to see anybody hitting triple digits, but Barrios does it with just a 5-foot-11, 180 pound frame, and as <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/prospect-watch-milbs-hardest-thrower-and-other-stories/" target="_blank">FanGraphs&#8217;s Nathaniel Stoltz</a> shared prior to the season, he does it with a surprisingly smooth delivery:</p>
<iframe src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/mfdZI-SInL8" width="560" height="315" frameborder="0" ></iframe>
<p>Barrios has yet to turn that blazing velocity into reliable results. He has just a 4.60 ERA in 13 games at Triple-A this season and posted a 3.86 ERA between two Class A squads in 2014. His minor league 6.6 K/9 is underwhelming, and his control has been shaky at every level. But he has only been pitching professionally for three years—the Pirates converted him from the infield to the mound after the 2012 season—and is only 23 years old. His off-speed pitches are understandably works in progress, and even for pitchers with as much power as Barrios has shown, it&#8217;s typically the off-speed pitch that racks up the strikeouts.</p>
<p>Barrios will be a project for Milwaukee&#8217;s coaching staff, but that&#8217;s about as much as could be expected in return for Ramirez. And even in order to get that, the Brewers had to eat a few million dollars—the Pirates are only paying for $3 million of the nearly $6 million left on Ramirez&#8217;s contract, according to Ken Rosenthal</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" width="550"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Source: <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Pirates?src=hash">#Pirates</a> taking on $3M of Ramirez’s remaining salary.</p>
<p>&mdash; Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) <a href="https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal/status/624332760115712000">July 23, 2015</a></p></blockquote>
<p><script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p>
<p>It&#8217;s an earnest rebuilding move, though, as the Brewers attempt to assemble the young talent they&#8217;ll need to compete again like they did in 2008 and 2011. Ramirez, meanwhile, gets his chance to compete for a pennant in his retirement season, and, amazingly, he&#8217;ll be able to finish his 18-year career without ever leaving the comfortable confines of the National League Central.</p>
<p><em>Lead photo courtesy of Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>The Beginnings Of A Rebuild</title>
		<link>http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2015/07/22/the-beginnings-of-a-rebuild/</link>
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		<pubDate>Wed, 22 Jul 2015 13:00:57 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Julien Assouline]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[rebuild]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Trade Deadline]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=830</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The All-Star game is over; teams are therefore gearing up for one of the most exiting and stressful events in all of baseball: the trade deadline. MLBTrade Rumors is in full force, Ken Rosenthal is talking to everyone, and Jon Heyman is tweeting every second; yes, the winds of trades are swirling around the baseball sphere. [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The All-Star game is over; teams are therefore gearing up for one of the most exiting and stressful events in all of baseball: the trade deadline. <a href="http://www.mlbtraderumors.com">MLBTrade Rumors</a> is in full force, Ken Rosenthal is talking to everyone, and Jon Heyman is tweeting every second; yes, the winds of trades are swirling around the baseball sphere.</p>
<p>One of the most prominent teams mentioned in these rumors are the Brewers. This is rather obvious; the Brewers playoff percentage stands at 0.42 percent and while their expected win percentage is actually better than their actual win percentage, it’s nothing to brag about and wouldn’t put them in a position to make the playoffs. They’re also not a very young team, their farm system while definitely improving, is not typically referred to as one of the best in baseball, and their competition is fierce. The Cardinals, Pirates, and Cubs are all young, talented, and smart organizations that seem prime to be contenders for a while. The Brewers therefore have become a prime candidate for the next big rebuild. At least that’s one of the popular narratives. On top of that, they have many desirable pieces, so it’s no surprise the Brewers have been in the middle of many rumors.</p>
<p>Even with all the talk, it’s still unclear where the organization will go. As it’s been noted on this <a href="http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2015/06/30/the-brewers-expectations-for-summer-trades/">website</a>,  whether the Brewers will undergo a full-blown rebuild or will simply trim the fat remains an unknown. The trade deadline will definitely serve as a good barometer as to which direction the team is headed, but we won’t get the full picture. I personally am skeptical that the team will undergo a full-blown rebuild. Mark Attanasio once said in an interview that, “…we all love this sport, and what’s great about this sport is there’s hope and there’s nothing funner than spending a summer’s day at Miller Park, but if you know that there’s no chance that you&#8217;re going to win, or worse that you&#8217;re going to continue to see bad baseball, that is not ok with me.” Attanasio said this in a <a title="SABR interview" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kd1VOGyw5Tw">SABR interview</a> right before the 2014 season started. His thoughts on the issue might have changed, but if they hold true, this would prevent the Brewers from exercising a big rebuild. The obvious factor being that if the Brewers truly want to blow it up then they will have to undergo several bad seasons. Now, Attanasio’s comments were right before the start of a brand new baseball season and they might have been for PR value, which is one of many reasons why this trade deadline will be so interesting.</p>
<p>Rebuilding, though, is a process and will not happen overnight. A team like the Houston Astros, who look poised to be at the very least relevant come September, took some time.  In 2010 they traded Roy Oswalt, in 2011 they traded Hunter Pence and Michael Bourn, and in 2013 they traded, what seemed like their final trade chip, Bud Norris to the Orioles. This isn’t to suggest that the Brewers should take the Astros approach, but rather to show that if Carlos Gomez, Jonathan Lucroy, and Jean Seguera aren’t traded at the trade deadline, it doesn’t mean that they won’t be traded in the future. All of these players are controllable beyond this year and have significant value. While Gomez has been linked to several teams, including the Astros, his value might not be as high as it normally would be due to his early season injury. I say ‘might’ because I don’t know; it all depends on whether the Brewers receive an adequate offer. Gomez after all, has been one of the best players in baseball over the past couple of years. In 2013 he ranked 15<sup>th</sup> with a WARP of 6 (among all position players) and in 2014 he ranked 20<sup>th</sup> with a 5.3 WARP. This season, though, hasn’t been as good due to the aforementioned injury. The Brewers therefore might be better off waiting for the offseason to trade Gomez. It would also allow for a potentially bigger market to develop for him. That being said, as I’ve mentioned before, if the <a title="Orioles" href="http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/07/orioles-interested-in-padres-justin-upton.html">Orioles</a> or the <a title="Astros" href="http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/07/rosenthals-latest-hamels-cueto-kazmir-gomez.html">Astros</a> make an acceptable offer, the Brewers would be foolish not to take it.</p>
<p><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Position Players:</span></p>
<p>Now, let’s move on to the real fun part: the players who I think should and will be traded. Among position players there’s three: Aramis Ramirez, Gerardo Parra, and Adam Lind. If the Brewers are truly serious about rebuilding, all three of these players should be moved at the trade deadline. Ramirez mentioned that this will be his last season. For a team that has no chance of making the playoffs, there appears to be little to no use to carry an old third baseman that will retire at season’s end on their roster. With Ramirez, it’s really one of those situations where you shop him around and take the best available offer, no matter what.</p>
<p>Even though Parra is having one of his best seasons—at least offensively—he’s also got to go. His contract will expire at the end of the season and he’s got real value. As <a title="MLBTrade Rumors" href="http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/07/rosenthals-latest-hamels-cueto-kazmir-gomez.html">MLBTrade Rumors</a> has noted, the Astros are open to adding a bat at the trade deadline, and if the price for Gomez is too steep, Parra would fit in nicely as a lefty-platoon bat. He would also be tied for the highest wOBA among Astros outfielders and would be a valuable piece off the bench when George Springer comes back from his injury.</p>
<p>Then there’s Adam Lind. As <a title="Dave Cameron" href="http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/fangraphs-audio-dave-cameron-live-on-tape-in-dc/">Dave Cameron</a> pointed out, he’s probably going to be the best bat on the market, during the deadline (at least one of the best). Lind should also be in high demand, especially considering there’s an $8 million club option next season, so you wouldn’t simply be getting him for the playoff run. What’s even more interesting is that there’s a real market for him in the division. The Cardinals and Pirates are the two best teams in the National League and both have a glaring weakness at first base. The Cardinals have been playing Mark Reynolds ever since Matt Adams went down (though they&#8217;ve converted their top prospect, outfielder Stephan Piscotty, to first and recently called him up), and he’s been serviceable at best. The Pirates gave it a go with Pedro Alverez, but at this point it’s obvious that he’s nothing more than a right-handed platoon DH. Lind would provide stability to the position for not only the rest of this season, but also next season. Whichever team got Lind would also be keeping him away from the other, with the next-best options being Jon Singleton, Chris Parmelee, or whatever is left of Mike Napoli, all clear downgrades from Lind. And on top of that, if you really don’t want to trade in the division, there’s the Nationals, who rank 26<sup>th</sup> in wOBA for first basemen. Just for some context, the Cardinals and Pirates rank 27<sup>th</sup> and 29<sup>th</sup> in wOBA at the position.</p>
<p><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The Bullpen:</span></p>
<p>The bullpen for the Brewers is also very interesting. It’s been really good this year and having a good bullpen is a luxury bad teams don’t need. That luxury is typically reserved for contending teams who are looking to add one or two pieces for their final playoff run. Well, if contending teams are looking for bullpen pieces, the Brewers have a boatload. I mean seriously, where does one even start? Francisco Rodriguez has experience closing—if you’re into that sort of thing—and more importantly, he’s sporting a spiffy 1.80 DRA and he’s controllable until 2017. If you’re turned off by his off-field issues, Michael Blazek’s got a 0.91 DRA, he’s making $508, 500 this year, he only hits arbitration in 2018, and he’s controllable until 2021. Will Smith has a 2.25 DRA, he’s a lefty, and he’s controllable until 2020. If a team is only looking for help in the pen over the next few months, Neal Cotts is a free agent at season’s end, and while his 3.57 DRA isn’t as good as the other three, it’s above league average and he’s also another lefty.</p>
<p>In any case, these relievers could bring some prospects in return, or they could be added pieces in a much bigger trade. Whatever happens with the bullpen, it will give us added insight into how serious the Brewers are about rebuilding. They have four, five if you count Jeremy Jeffress, very desirable trade pieces that any contending team should be interested in.</p>
<p><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Starting Rotation:</span></p>
<p>And finally there’s the starting rotation. This is the black mark, the stain on the Brewers season. There have been reports, even very early on, that the Brewers are open to trading Matt Garza and Kyle Lohse. The problem? They’re old, they both have negative pWARP’s and, oh yeah, they’re not cheap. Lohse’s contract does end at the end of this year, so if a team needs a no. 5 starter and is hoping that he bounces back in the second half, there may be a deal there. With Garza, he’s scheduled to make $12.5 million for the next two seasons; then there’s a vesting/club option in 2018, a season for which he’ll be 34 years old.</p>
<p>With Lohse, the philosophy should be to get whatever you can in return. With Garza, I’d hold onto him and pray that he bounces back next yearv so that you can actually get some value for him. In both cases though, it doesn’t look good.</p>
<p>If the Brewers really want to trade a starter, I’d go with Mike Fiers. While he hasn’t been great (4.19 DRA) he’d make a serviceable no. 4 or 5 starter and he’s cheap. On top of that, he only hits arbitration in 2017 and he’s controllable until 2020. He is 30, so he’s not exactly young, but considering how cheap he is, teams could simply send him to the minors or DFA him if he falls apart. In any case, trading some of the starting pitching would only be, what I would call, trimming the fat.</p>
<p><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Final Thoughts:</span></p>
<p>I’ve just described a number of pieces that the Brewers could move at the trade deadline. Parra, Lind, Lohse, Ramirez, and Cotts should all be gone after the trade deadline. All of these players, apart from Lind, are in the final year of their deal, and have a market. The rest is a mystery, but if the Brewers are truly serious about rebuilding, they should trade more than just those five players.</p>
<p>Due to the second wild card, fewer teams than ever are sellers at the trade deadline; the Brewers are one of the few. They’re also one of the few teams that have desirable bats. The big names on the marked are Johnny Cueto, Scott Kazmir, and Cole Hamels and they&#8217;re all starting pitchers. The Brewers could then take advantage of their position as one of the only teams who are selling and are selling bats on the market. They’re also in a good position when it comes to trading Gomez or Segura, in that if a good offer isn’t out there, they could just keep them and try again in the offseason. While I say this, it would be a huge mistake for the Brewers not to shop both players. The good news, though, is that it seems they are.</p>
<p>As I’ve mentioned before, rebuilding is a process, it won’t happen overnight, and not every trade chip will be traded at the trade deadline. If the Brewers do nothing at the trade deadline, yes, press the panic button. The Brewers should be active, but as <a title="J.P. Breen" href="http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2015/06/30/the-brewers-expectations-for-summer-trades/">J.P. Breen</a> has mentioned before, the offseason might be a much better test as to where this team is going. This trade deadline will only give us a glimpse into the team’s future plans and into which direction the team is going.</p>
<p>If the Brewers don’t trade Gomez, Lucroy, or Segura on July 31<sup>st</sup>, lets just calm down, take a deep breath, and remember that they might not have gotten an adequate offer.</p>
<p><em>Lead photo courtesy of Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Before He Turns Into A Pumpkin, Part II: A Buyer Over the Lake?</title>
		<link>http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2015/07/02/before-he-turns-into-a-pumpkin-part-ii-a-buyer-over-the-lake/</link>
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		<pubDate>Thu, 02 Jul 2015 22:26:03 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Colin Anderle]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Commentary]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Editorials]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Player Analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Trade Analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Aramis Ramirez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Trade Deadline]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=389</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The Brewers still need to deal Aramis Ramirez before the July 31st non-waiver deadline. However, this past weekend, the chances of that happening seemingly took a significant blow. Heard #Mets left series in Milw unimpressed by Aramis Ramirez on both sides of ball. And weren&#8217;t that interested to start with #Brewers — Joel Sherman (@Joelsherman1) June 30, [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The Brewers still need to deal Aramis Ramirez before the July 31st non-waiver deadline. However, this past weekend, the chances of that happening seemingly took a significant blow.</p>
<p dir="ltr" lang="en" style="padding-left: 30px"><em>Heard <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Mets?src=hash">#Mets</a> left series in Milw unimpressed by Aramis Ramirez on both sides of ball. And weren&#8217;t that interested to start with <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Brewers?src=hash">#Brewers</a></em></p>
<p style="padding-left: 30px"><em>— Joel Sherman (@Joelsherman1) <a href="https://twitter.com/Joelsherman1/status/615970420932628480">June 30, 2015</a></em></p>
<p>The Mets have always appeared to be the natural fit for Ramirez this summer. Third base for New York&#8217;s National League outfit has been one of the most stable landscapes in all of baseball this century, thanks to David Wright, but his ailing back has caused the Amazins&#8217; to turn to a depressing committee of Eric Campbell, Ruben Tejada, and the currently-injured Daniel Murphy at the hot corner. Still, they continue to downplay their interest in Ramirez at every turn. It now seems that this was not just gamesmanship to lower the asking price.</p>
<p>Unexpectedly, and for the first time since the Willie Randolph days, the Mets are contenders this year. Third base, though, has been a major weak spot in the lineup. Campbell has been a Mets farmhand since 2008 and only this year did he find himself into the<em> BP Annual </em>&#8211; he&#8217;s that kind of non-prospect. As such, he was never supposed to even be in the conversation at third base. It&#8217;s not difficult to see why;  he&#8217;s been downright terrible. In just north of 150 plate appearances, he&#8217;s slashing .171/.283/.264. Only eight of those 152 plate appearances have resulted in an extra-base hit. Campbell&#8217;s hit chart to date is every bit as hope-inspiring as a funeral dirge:</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><img class="alignnone" src="http://www.brooksbaseball.net/plot_hc_spray.php?s_type=15&amp;gFilt=&amp;time=month&amp;player=493472&amp;startDate=01/01/2015&amp;endDate=01/01/2016&amp;minmax=ci&amp;var=count&amp;balls=-1&amp;strikes=-1&amp;b_hand=-1" alt="" width="425" height="437" /></p>
<p>&#8220;Campbell and Co.&#8221; would make a decent name for an indie rock band, but as a third baseman, he must do far better than this. Of course, Aramis Ramirez no longer represents first-division talent at this stage in his career. But it&#8217;s hard to imagine him performing worse than <em>that</em>. Alas, the Mets want nothing to do with him &#8212; even if the fans might disagree.</p>
<p style="padding-left: 30px"><em><a href="https://twitter.com/Joelsherman1">@Joelsherman1</a> I&#8217;m not impressed with Eric Campbell.</em></p>
<p style="padding-left: 30px"><em>— Mike (@mike5_5_5) <a href="https://twitter.com/mike5_5_5/status/615970585772994560">June 30, 2015</a></em></p>
<p>Despite this, with less than a month until the trade deadline, hope is not lost on the Aramis front. Though there has been no reported contact between the teams, a perfect buyer exists for Ramirez&#8217;s services &#8212; just across Lake Michigan, too, in the Brewers&#8217; old home, the AL Central.</p>
<p>As of Thursday afternoon, the Detroit Tigers sit two-games back of the American League Wild Card. Additionally, no other organization in baseball is more fixed in &#8220;Win Right Now, Baby&#8221; mode. Miguel Cabrera may still the most feared bat in baseball, but he&#8217;s 32 years old. History indicates that his time sitting upon the throne is short at that age. Hell, Justin Verlander is the same age and already repaying whatever deal he made with the devil from 2009-2012 with handsome interest. Ian Kinsler is a year older than both of them. Both Victor Martinez and Alfredo Simon are older than the whole bunch.</p>
<p>In the coming few years, when that aging core starts to slip in its performance, nobody will be there to pick up the slack. The Motor City Kitties&#8217; farm system is rated by <em>Baseball Prospectus</em> as the worst in baseball. Thirtieth out of thirty. The 2014 draft saw them draft high-school outfielder Derek Hill in the first round. Though Hill is a total wild card at this point, years away from paying any potential dividends at the big-league level, his upside was lofty enough to get him named the Tigers&#8217; top prospect for 2015. Nobody on the Tigers&#8217; farm with major-league talent is major-league ready, and vice versa. It&#8217;s a familiar problem for Brewers fans.</p>
<p>The big difference is, for the Tigers, there&#8217;s hope in the present. And depending on your opinion of the Anthony Gose/Rajai Davis platoon in center field, the only two positions that have not been offensively fertile this season are catcher and third base.</p>
<p>The Tigers would really love to solve their woes behind the dish by adding Jonathan Lucroy to the mix. I&#8217;d also really love a Model S. The reality of both those dream-situations is that the Tigers lack the young resources to present a fair offer for Lucroy. I should also point out that my credit rating would get me unceremoniously booted from the Tesla store without so much as a test drive. It&#8217;s probably best to leave both of those ideas in the realm of the hypothetical, where they belong.</p>
<p>But third base, on the other hand, seems a natural fit for the two teams. Ramirez will come cheap enough for the asset-strapped Tigers, in terms of prospects, and he could pay off even if he falls flat on the field.</p>
<p>Incumbent at third base for the Tigers is 23-year-old Nick Castellanos. Just two years ago Castellanos was a top prospect, the lone jewel saving Detroit from their current 30th-place farm purgatory. Since then, things haven&#8217;t gone according to plan. The Tigers may have rushed Castellanos to the big leagues, and in 871 major-league plate appearances, he has a paltry on-base percentage of .295 &#8212; and to go with only 15 home runs. The whole package has been less than a win below replacement level.</p>
<p>Castellanos&#8217; struggles have led the Tigers to give part-time reps to utility infielder Andrew Romine at the hot corner in an effort to motivate him into delivering on his potential. So far, that hasn&#8217;t done anything to shake things up. Replacing Romine with Ramirez, though, could conceivably be an upgrade for the Tigers. Castellanos came up to the big leagues at 21 years old and has looked overmatched. His poor baserunning, lackluster contact, and inability to recognize pitches are all issues that need to be straightened out, rather than swept under the rug. The team would be wise to rewind his development a touch and ease him back into the starting job through Ramirez, possibly even after some time in Triple-A to remember how to mash again. That&#8217;s a luxury trading for Aramis would afford them. In the middle of a playoff race, a team can&#8217;t exactly entrust third base to Romine and expect the fans to not mutiny. Ramirez wouldn&#8217;t carry the same problems.</p>
<p>It&#8217;s not an exciting deal for either team. For the Tigers, they would be getting less than half-season of a broken-down shell of a once-great player. For the Brewers, they would be cutting bait with the guy who was supposed to replace Prince Fielder&#8217;s production when he left &#8212; for Detroit, ironically &#8212; via free agency and likely getting peanuts in return. But it&#8217;s a practical move for all parties involved. The Tigers could address their broken third baseman of the future, the Brewers could exchange their expiring pumpkin for something small but potentially useful, and Aramis Ramirez could round out his career trying to chase down the Royals in the American League Central.</p>
<p>Not every fairy tale has a happy ending. Sometimes, a resolution where all parties are generally satisfied is the best for which one can hope.</p>
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		<title>The Brewers &amp; Expectations For Summer Trades</title>
		<link>http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2015/06/30/the-brewers-expectations-for-summer-trades/</link>
		<comments>http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2015/06/30/the-brewers-expectations-for-summer-trades/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 30 Jun 2015 16:50:24 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[J.P. Breen]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Commentary]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Trade Analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Doug Melvin]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Trade Deadline]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=373</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Given the poor quality of the product on the field, it’s understandable that Brewers fans have begun to focus on the trade market and the prospects of earnestly rebuilding. The general consensus seems to be that the Brewers should set this ship ablaze. They should send off all their trade chips for prospects, build up [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Given the poor quality of the product on the field, it’s understandable that Brewers fans have begun to focus on the trade market and the prospects of earnestly rebuilding.</p>
<p>The general consensus seems to be that the Brewers should set this ship ablaze. They should send off all their trade chips for prospects, build up the farm system as much as possible, and engage in a long-term and holistic rebuilding process. In other words, the organization should copy the blueprint laid out by the Houston Astros and the Chicago Cubs over the past decade &#8212; embrace the temporary pain for the promise of a brighter, more sustainable future.</p>
<p>In a vacuum and on paper, such a plan makes sense. One must consider, though, the negative business consequences of a raze-and-rebuild plan and the fact that few teams are willing to part with quality prospects in this era of baseball. With those factors in mind, it becomes clear that such an overwhelming rebuilding process is not a simplistic decision, nor a process that can simply begin on command.</p>
<p>It hasn’t blown up into a torches-and-pitchforks situation to this point, but a growing number of Brewers fans are growing disillusioned with the team’s supposed plan this summer. Buster Olney <a href="http://disciplesofuecker.com/olney-on-brewers-well-talk-about-that-guy-but-nah-you-know/23347">recently indicated</a> that the Brewers have shown no interest in meaningfully discussing their stars &#8212; players such as Carlos Gomez and Jonathan Lucroy. Furthermore, the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel’s Tom Haudricourt wrote <a href="http://www.jsonline.com/sports/brewers/whos-available-and-whos-not-from-the-brewers-b99526821z1-310376871.html">a weekend piece</a> that said the Brewers would have to receive the “right” (read: massive) offer to trade Gomez or Jean Segura, while Lucroy isn’t even on the table. In essence, these two articles suggest the Brewers are not actively seeking to move any of their trade chips that would conceivably bring back the best talent.</p>
<p>This article is not meant to be a pre-summer primer for the Brewers’ trade market; however, it is meant to address the space surrounding the Brewers’ trade plans. This article desires to complicate the rather simplistic raze-and-rebuild plan that’s being pushed by many fans this summer. In the end, it’s my hope that this article will nuance the discussion, set expectations for the trading season, and enable us to have a more useful dialogue on the topic.</p>
<p><span style="text-decoration: underline"><b>RELYING ON MEDIA REPORTS</b></span></p>
<p>The most frustrating piece of the trade-season hoopla is the angst generated from anonymous quotations or reports by “team executives” and other “front office members.” Quotations that are attributed to named front-office members should be included in this, too. Although baseball reporters from across the country bust their asses and mostly report factual conversations, the overwhelming tendency to accept these insider reports as truthful or non-manipulative is foolish.</p>
<p>Team sources leak information in an effort to manipulate the market in their favor. Player/agent sources do the same to benefit themselves. Team sources, when identified by name, engage in public-relations activities. National reporters fall prey to it, as do team-centric writers, but bloggers (for a lack of a better term) are becoming a larger avenue for these types of reports. Bloggers, as the traditional outsiders, get excited that they’re getting information from a “source” that they blindly report everything. I know that I’ve personally made numerous mistakes in this area. The source may provide a nugget or two of real substance, but the bloggers quickly become an avenue for manipulation or PR activities, a mouthpiece that organizations can use for their benefit.</p>
<p>In the end, what is the motivation for truthfulness in these hot-stove reports that have flooded the market over the past month? Doug Melvin gains absolutely nothing, and likely loses potential leverage, if he lays out his summer plan to the media. Team sources hurt themselves by being wholly transparent with baseball scribes.</p>
<p>Thus, when reading articles that quote Doug Melvin as saying the Brewers aren’t motivated to sell big pieces or that they still believe they can compete next season, take it with a gargantuan grain of salt. Do the same when reading articles that quote “anonymous sources” about a player’s trade value or about a team’s willingness to discuss a player or about a trade proposal that got rejected. Teams, players, agents, and scouts have many motivations to manipulate the market, utilizing the media as its mouthpiece.</p>
<p>To put it more succinctly, don’t fret about the recent articles that suggest the Brewers are not very willing to sell major pieces. Read between the lines. Ask yourself about the purpose of the quotation and who stands to benefit from it. Such skepticism will bring more peacefulness &#8212; or, if we’re being honest, boredom &#8212; to the upcoming hot-stove season.</p>
<p><span style="text-decoration: underline"><b>THE “MUST-SELL” TRAP &amp; OFFSEASON MARKETS</b></span></p>
<p>Too much emphasis is being placed on the potential trades (or non-trades) made this summer. It’s being viewed as a pivotal moment in franchise history, where the organization can either signal a full commitment to the future or settle back into a half-hearted and flawed promise of imminent competitiveness. In other words, many fans are quickly slipping toward the attitude that the Brewers <i>must</i> sell Carlos Gomez, Jean Segura, or Jonathan Lucroy this summer, if the organization wants to do this correctly.</p>
<p>This is the classic <i>must-sell trap</i> and is how the Tampa Bay Rays traded David Price to the Detroit Tigers and received an underwhelming package (to be kind) in return. The Price trade serves as a cautionary tale that a poor return on a star is far worse than holding onto a star. Even in the Brewers’ own history, the Carlos Lee trade is another example of this. The notion that “you’re better off getting something rather than nothing” is fundamentally flawed at its core.</p>
<p>To be fair, I do believe that most of the individuals who are slipping into the must-sell trap are not actually advocating a must-sell scenario. Instead, I believe these individuals are truthfully more concerned that Doug Melvin and the Brewers are open to fielding offers for players like Gomez, Segura, and Lucroy. What most die-hard fans desperately desire is some kind of confirmation that the organization knows its deep-seated defects and wants to do whatever is necessary to fix them.</p>
<p>However, it’s important to be realistic in these scenarios. While the Milwaukee Brewers may be interested in fielding offers for someone like Carlos Gomez, it doesn’t appear that any legitimate trading partner exists for the center fielder. The upcoming exercise will be limited in its scope, to be sure, but it should still prove instructive.</p>
<p>To me, it appears that eight teams have a need or an obvious spot for Gomez: Toronto, Seattle, Cleveland, Los Angeles (AL), Texas, New York (NL), Minnesota, and San Francisco. These teams have varying records and varying likelihoods of making the postseason, but of teams that could conceivably buy at the deadline, these are the eight that make the most sense for Gomez.</p>
<p>Of these eight teams, we should isolate those which have the necessary prospects to make a legitimate offer for Gomez. This eliminates the Angels, as their farm system is horrendous, as well as Seattle and San Francisco &#8212; the last two teams could make a deal work if they were willing to dip into a core piece at the major-league level, but that seems counterproductive for them. That leaves five teams with the necessary prospects available: Toronto, Cleveland, Texas, New York (NL), and Minnesota.</p>
<p>Not all of these teams, however, are likely to spend their prospects to acquire a center fielder. The Blue Jays desperately need help in their rotation and bullpen, and they’ll almost certainly dip into their minor-league coffers to address that need before pursuing Gomez. The Rangers are a similar story, as their rotation desperately needs an upgrade and Cole Hamels or Johnny Cueto fit far better than Gomez at the deadline. One could make the same argument for the Twins. They still have Mike Pelfrey pitching every fifth day, their team DRA (Deserved Run Average) is fourth-worst in the American League, and they have Byron Buxton poised to take over center field once he returns from the disabled list.</p>
<p>This leaves two teams remaining, the Cleveland Indians and the New York Mets. The Indians could center a package around Bradley Zimmer, while the Mets have a few prospects who could headline a trade for Carlos Gomez, such as Steven Matz.</p>
<p>The problem, though, is that neither of these teams are likely candidates to buy big at the deadline. Cleveland is seven-games under .500 at the moment, and while they have a quality pitching staff and a hole in center field, it seems foolish for the team to trade away key pieces for their future in such a bad position. The only silver lining is that Gomez could still represent a significant upgrade for 2016, but in the end, the whole scenario is a stretch.</p>
<p>The Mets, on the other hand, are a tire-fire of an organization. They lack financial stability to take on new contracts and have historically been frugal with their prospects. Mets fans have pleaded for their organization to trade prospects for proven major-leaguers the past couple years; however, the team fails to do so every year. Banking on the Mets to be the team that makes the “right offer” on Gomez seems to be wishful thinking, at the very best.</p>
<p>Thus, we get to the end and it seems obvious why the trade market surrounding Carlos Gomez has been quiet, and why the organization continuously downplays any chance that Gomez might be moved this summer. The necessary market doesn’t appear to exist.</p>
<p><span style="text-decoration: underline"><b>CONCLUSION</b></span></p>
<p>This is the crux of the situation, really. The Brewers do not <i>have to </i>sell anyone. They’re not in financial trouble like the Arizona Diamondbacks, who are trying to shed money in every direction. The Brewers appear poised to keep Carlos Gomez for the remainder of the season and then revisit the situation this winter, when more potential buyers become available. This article could have also broken down similar stories about Jean Segura and Jonathan Lucroy. Holding these players at the trade deadline is not necessarily a signal of obstinance from the organization; rather, it’s a reflection of the trade market at this time. The Milwaukee Brewers have premium pieces to sell &#8212; they’re just missing the other half of the puzzle, teams who are willing to part with prized prospects in order to buy them.</p>
<p>Those pining for a firesale this summer are almost certainly going to be disappointed. The Brewers might move Gerardo Parra and/or Adam Lind for an interesting piece; however, most of the trades will be unimportant. Neal Cotts won’t bring anything more than an A-ball player with high-bust potential or a Quad-A type of player. The same with Jonathan Broxton or Kyle Lohse. Teams are terrified of Francisco Rodriguez’s history of domestic abuse. In the end, it projects to be a summer trading season that brings dissatisfaction, rather than optimism.</p>
<p>My advice: Turn your attention to the upcoming offseason, rather than the summer trade deadline. The stars don’t appear to be on the verge of aligning this summer, which is what would need to happen for the Brewers to move their premium trade chips. This winter is far more likely to be the time when Milwaukee makes their franchise-defining moves. It will also be the time to finally become more concerned if the organization doesn’t begin to engage in the necessary rebuilding project.</p>
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