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	<title>Milwaukee &#187; Tristan Archer</title>
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		<title>Tristan Archer Aims for Miller Park</title>
		<link>http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/05/09/tristan-archer-aims-for-miller-park/</link>
		<comments>http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/05/09/tristan-archer-aims-for-miller-park/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 09 May 2017 11:15:11 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Noah Nofz]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[2017 Brewers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[2017 Brewers prospects]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Brewers prospect analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tristan Archer]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=8826</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Throwing a small object past a man holding a stick and standing 60 feet away doesn’t sound all that tough. But when the object has to land within an area slightly larger than three square feet and the man holding the stick has muscles the size of your head…. Well, there’s a reason I write [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Throwing a small object past a man holding a stick and standing 60 feet away doesn’t sound all that tough. But when the object has to land within an area slightly larger than three square feet and the man holding the stick has muscles the size of your head…. Well, there’s a reason I write articles about this stuff instead of start for the Yankees at $30 million a year. Pitching is hard. Anyone who throws a pitch in the major leagues is incredible.</p>
<p>Conventional wisdom dictates that starting pitchers are, by and large, even more incredible than relievers. They throw more pitches, they have better command, their stamina is unrivaled. So when a starting pitcher prospect fails, the first course of action is usually to try pitching him out of the ‘pen. It’s hard to remember now, but before Andrew Miller and Mariano Rivera became <em>Andrew Miller </em>and <em>Mariano Rivera</em>, they were taking the hill every fifth day and posting ERAs above 5. Brewers fans are familiar with this concept. Will Smith used to be a starter. Tyler Thornburg, too. Questions have been raised about Josh Hader’s future in the rotation. And Phil Bickford’s. And Jorge López’s. And so on.</p>
<p>All of which is to say that to be a pure relief prospect in the minor leagues is to occupy a pretty low rung on the organizational ladder. Bullpen prospects simply aren’t as valuable as their starting counterparts, and relievers can be cut at the drop of a hat to make room for a more proven commodity; just ask Tyler Cravy. But look around a big league bullpen, and you’re bound to find a few arms that muscled their way to the show without ever gracing an organizational prospect list.</p>
<p>Which brings us to Tristan Archer. The Brewers selected Archer in the 21st round of the 2013 draft out of Tennessee Tech. Throughout his professional career, Archer has exhibited an uncanny knack for run prevention. He made his professional debut for Helena in 2013, working to a 3.08 ERA over 38 innings. Since then, he’s climbed through the farm at a level-per-year clip.</p>
<p>His CV over the last three years:</p>
<table width="597">
<thead>
<tr>
<td width="59">Season</td>
<td width="93">Team</td>
<td width="89">IP</td>
<td width="89">ERA</td>
<td width="89">DRA</td>
<td width="89">K/9</td>
<td width="89">BB/9</td>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="59">2014</td>
<td width="93">Wisconsin (A)</td>
<td width="89">113.0</td>
<td width="89">3.42</td>
<td width="89">5.43</td>
<td width="89">7.01</td>
<td width="89">3.42</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="59">2015</td>
<td width="93">Brevard (A+)</td>
<td width="89">71.0</td>
<td width="89">3.42</td>
<td width="89">3.60</td>
<td width="89">7.99</td>
<td width="89">1.65</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="59">2016</td>
<td width="93">Biloxi (AA)</td>
<td width="89">81.7</td>
<td width="89">3.42</td>
<td width="89">1.39</td>
<td width="89">9.04</td>
<td width="89">0.99</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>A few things stand out here. First, the comical: Archer rattled off three consecutive years with a 3.42 ERA. But take another look – Archer’s DRA has steadily dropped, bottoming out at a sterling 1.39 last year in AA. He’s added one strikeout per nine innings each year. And at the same time he’s added whiffs, Archer has become a control freak, walking less than one batter per nine in Biloxi. But he’s never sniffed a prospect list.</p>
<p>Nonetheless, Archer is up to his usual tricks so far in 2017 (with statistics through May 5).</p>
<table width="589">
<thead>
<tr>
<td width="59">Season</td>
<td width="124">Team</td>
<td width="50">IP</td>
<td width="89">ERA</td>
<td width="89">FIP*</td>
<td width="89">K/9</td>
<td width="89">BB/9</td>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="59">2017</td>
<td width="124">Biloxi (AA)</td>
<td width="50">7.0</td>
<td width="89">2.57</td>
<td width="89">3.44</td>
<td width="89">10.29</td>
<td width="89">2.57</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="59">2017</td>
<td width="124">Co. Springs (AAA)</td>
<td width="50">7.7</td>
<td width="89">3.52</td>
<td width="89">2.07</td>
<td width="89">7.04</td>
<td width="89">0.00</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="59">2017</td>
<td width="124">Total</td>
<td width="50">14.7</td>
<td width="89">3.07</td>
<td width="89">2.72</td>
<td width="89">8.59</td>
<td width="89">1.23</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td colspan="7" width="589">*DRA unavailable for 2017 at time of writing</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>Give Archer some time to adjust to AAA hitting, and more Ks should come. Meanwhile, the command hasn’t gone anywhere and Archer is generating ground balls at a career-high rate. Early indications suggest that the thin air of Colorado Springs won’t pose much of a problem.</p>
<p>The 26-year-old has been a little old for each level, but that shouldn’t cloud Archer’s adjustments. Tristan Archer is learning to flat-out <em>pitch</em>, and is proving himself capable of dominating the upper minors. That or he’s a sorcerer, able to prestidigitate his way to a 3.42 ERA for all eternity. Either way, Archer could become the next under-the-radar prospect to make an impact out of the Milwaukee bullpen. Don’t be shocked if he cracks the 40-man roster this winter – it might not even take that long.</p>
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		<title>Pitching Week: Brewers Minor Leaguers</title>
		<link>http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/01/27/pitching-week-brewers-minor-leaguers/</link>
		<comments>http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/01/27/pitching-week-brewers-minor-leaguers/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 27 Jan 2017 12:39:39 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Kyle Lesniewski]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Aaron Wilkerson]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Brandon Woodruff]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Brent Suter]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Damien Magnifico]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[David Goforth]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jorge Lopez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Josh Hader]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Luis Ortiz]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stephen Kohlscheen]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Taylor Jungmann]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tristan Archer]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Wei-Chung Wang]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=7849</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[We have been celebrating &#8220;Pitching Week&#8221; all week long at Baseball Prospectus, including the introduction of a couple new statistics, Called Strike Probability (CSProb) and Called Strikes Above Average (CSAA), to quantify control and command. Earlier this week for Brew Crew Ball, I took a look at how the current big league pitchers in Milwaukee [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>We have been celebrating &#8220;Pitching Week&#8221; all week long at Baseball Prospectus, including the <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=31022" target="_blank">introduction of a couple new statistics</a>, Called Strike Probability (CSProb) and Called Strikes Above Average (CSAA), to quantify control and command. Earlier this week for Brew Crew Ball, I took a look at how the current big league pitchers in Milwaukee <a href="http://www.brewcrewball.com/2017/1/24/14365166/quantifying-control-and-command-with-the-milwaukee-brewers" target="_blank">graded out using these new statistics</a>. CSAA information is also available for pitchers at the AAA and AA levels, which can help give some insight into the level of command displayed by minor leaguers. Let&#8217;s see how some of the more notable arms in Milwaukee&#8217;s farm system fared:</p>
<table dir="ltr" style="height: 874px" border="1" width="796" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<colgroup>
<col width="100" />
<col width="100" />
<col width="100" />
<col width="100" /></colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Player</td>
<td>Innings Pitched</td>
<td>DRA</td>
<td>CSAA</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Tristian Archer</td>
<td>81.7</td>
<td>1.39</td>
<td>4.17%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Brent Suter</td>
<td>110.7</td>
<td>2.83</td>
<td>4.08%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Aaron Wilkerson</td>
<td>102.7</td>
<td>1.97</td>
<td>4.08%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Brandon Woodruff (AA)</td>
<td>113.7</td>
<td>1.93</td>
<td>3.86%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Josh Hader (AA)</td>
<td>57</td>
<td>1.47</td>
<td>2.27%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Luis Ortiz</td>
<td>63</td>
<td>4.06</td>
<td>1.77%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Taylor Jungmann (AA)</td>
<td>75.3</td>
<td>2.95</td>
<td>-0.67%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Jorge Lopez (AA)</td>
<td>45.3</td>
<td>2.83</td>
<td>-0.80%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Wei-chung Wang (AA)</td>
<td>107.3</td>
<td>3.58</td>
<td>-1.21%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Stephen Kohlscheen</td>
<td>49.7</td>
<td>2.26</td>
<td>-1.37%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Josh Hader (AAA)</td>
<td>69</td>
<td>2.78</td>
<td>-1.59%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Wei-chung Wang (AAA)</td>
<td>26</td>
<td>4.67</td>
<td>-1.62%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Jorge Lopez (AAA)</td>
<td>79.3</td>
<td>6.65</td>
<td>-3.52%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Taylor Jungmann (AAA)</td>
<td>31</td>
<td>19.38</td>
<td>-5.62%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>David Goforth</td>
<td>51.3</td>
<td>11.01</td>
<td>-6.42%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Damien Magnifico</td>
<td>62</td>
<td>6.13</td>
<td>-7.23%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>The league leader in the MLB for CSAA was Zach Davies, with a 3.51 percent mark. As one can glean from the chart, several minor leaguers in Milwaukee&#8217;s system alone eclipsed that total last year. That likely has something to do with the quality of umpiring found at the minor league level versus in the big leagues, so the numbers should be taken with a bit of a grain of salt.</p>
<p>According to the numbers, several of the hurlers at Colorado Springs had difficulty commanding their pitches. Hard-throwing arms like Damien Magnifico and David Goforth have been in The Show before but failed to secure a role in spite of their plus fastballs. In both cases, the lack of a swing-and-miss pitch as well as poor command have held the two pitchers back from becoming big league contributors. Taylor Jungmann and Jorge Lopez were both demoted from Colorado Springs down to Biloxi after struggling mightily to keep hitters from reaching base and runs off the board, and both unsurprisingly graded out well-below average in CSAA while in AAA.</p>
<p>On the flip-side, both Brent Suter and Aaron Wilkerson enjoyed excellent seasons at the AAA level (though Wilkerson didn&#8217;t arrive in Colorado Springs until coming over in an early July trade with the Red Sox). Neither arm possesses outstanding &#8220;stuff&#8221;, especially the left-handed Suter, whose fastball tops out around 85 MPH. But both were able to post dominant Deserved Run Averages in a hitter-friendly ballpark at the highest level of the minors thanks in large part to their excellent command.</p>
<p>In the more pitcher-friendly environs of AA Biloxi, we find a bit more success for Milwaukee&#8217;s farmhands. Tristian Archer quietly put together an superlative performance for the Shuckers this past season on the strength of his excellent command, including an 82:9 K/BB ratio in 81.7 innings. Josh Hader also displayed above-average command during his dominant 57.0 inning run through the Southern League, though he backed up a bit upon reaching Colorado Springs while issuing 4.7 free passes per nine innings. Jorge Lopez and Taylor Jungmann both improved upon their dreadful CSAA numbers from Colorado Springs but were still a bit below-average command wise. Control of the strike zone has always been a question for those two and figures to be an issue that both will have to fight through if they want to see big league success. I was a bit suprised by Wei-Chung Wang&#8217;s numbers, as he only issued only a combined 2.4 BB/9 innings during his time at AA and AAA. He may have displayed decent control by keeping runners from reaching base via the walk, but his command graded out as below-average at both of his stops in 2016.</p>
<p>No pitcher in Milwaukee&#8217;s system improved their stock this year more than Brandon Woodruff. The former 11th-round pick had a middling collegiate career at Mississippi State and posted DRAs of 4.73 and 5.74 in the two years preceding 2016. His stuff ticked up this past season, including improved fastball velocity that was often 95+ MPH and a slider now graded as plus by some outlets. That, along with vastly improved command, helped Woodruff lead the minor leagues with 173 strikeouts in 158.0 combined innings between A+ and AA while allowing only 2.3 batters per nine innings to reach via base on balls. Woodruff posted sub-2.00 DRAs at both of the levels he pitched at this year on his way to winning the organization&#8217;s Minor League Pitcher of the Year. He&#8217;s now considered a top-10 organization prospect by many of the ranking outlets (though he didn&#8217;t crack <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=30902" target="_blank">BP&#8217;s Brewers top 10</a>) and should have a good chance to make an impact on the major league team in 2017.</p>
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